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While the regions impacted by snow squalls have narrowed compared to earlier in the week, these squalls are still expected to bring significant effects to parts of the Bruce Peninsula and the Parry Sound region.

Heavy snow combined with near-zero visibility and bitterly cold temperatures will likely keep school buses off the roads in some areas on Wednesday. For certain school boards, this would mark the third day of bus cancellations this week—a testament to how persistent and disruptive these squalls have been.

Meanwhile, much of Southwestern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, is bracing for what could be the coldest night of the year. Environment Canada has issued widespread Extreme Cold Warnings, forecasting wind chills between -30°C and -35°C by Wednesday morning.

While these wind chills are dangerously cold, they are unlikely to reach the threshold for a ‘cold day’ in most school boards, which typically only cancel buses when wind chills dip below -40°C.

However, there remains a low chance of cancellations, especially if temperatures end up colder than predicted. Given this, we've assigned a widespread 5-10% chance of cancellations in areas under the Extreme Cold Warning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)
Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)
Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)
Tri-Board (Prince Edward County)
Rainbow District School Board

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Hanover)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton & North CKL)
Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)
Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
District School Board of Niagara (South Region)
Tri-Board (Belleville and South L&A)
Near North District School Board (North Bay)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.