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Localized snow squall activity is forecasted to intensify late Monday and persist through Tuesday, bringing hazardous conditions to the Bruce Peninsula and parts of Muskoka.

These squalls will result in rapid snowfall accumulation, with localized totals potentially nearing 100 cm in the hardest-hit areas. Near-zero visibility caused by heavy snowfall and blowing snow will make travel extremely dangerous and, in many cases, nearly impossible.

Given these conditions, school bus cancellations are almost guaranteed in the regions most severely impacted. The combination of intense snow squalls and dangerously cold temperatures makes it highly unlikely that busing can be safely provided in these areas on Tuesday.

Snow squall activity may also extend to parts of the far southern Niagara region and Prince Edward County. While both areas could experience impacts, Prince Edward County is more likely to see a snow day due to the local school board’s being more sensitive to heavy snow.

The Niagara region has a lower chance of widespread cancellations, with the Fort Erie area being the most likely to see disruptions if squalls push far enough north.

Outside of the snow squall regions, the extreme cold on Monday morning did not lead to widespread cancellations, and similar temperatures are expected on Tuesday. As a result, it is unlikely that the cold alone will justify bus cancellations across most areas.

The exception may be the North Bay region, where buses were cancelled on Monday due to extreme cold and may face the same outcome again on Tuesday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Hanover)
Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound and North Bay)
Tri-Board (Prince Edward County)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

District School Board of Niagara (South Region)
Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL North)
Tri-Board (Belleville and South L&A)
Rainbow District School Board
Algoma District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel, Stratford and Exeter)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Tri-Board (Kingston)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.