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A mix of strong wind gusts and heavy snowfall is expected to create blizzard conditions starting Monday afternoon across parts of Southern Ontario.

Environment Canada has issued a blizzard warning for areas along the Eastern Georgian Bay shoreline, with a weather advisory extending through Muskoka and into Northern Ontario. These alerts signal the potential for hazardous weather, with significant impacts on visibility and travel conditions.

Given the seriousness of the situation, it is likely that school boards in the most affected regions will cancel school buses on Monday. However, for much of Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, widespread bus cancellations appear less likely. This is because the worst of the weather is expected to develop after the afternoon bus run, reducing the chances of a "snow day" for most students in these areas.

In regions where Environment Canada has issued blizzard warnings or advisories, conditions could deteriorate quickly during the afternoon hours. Central Ontario, including Muskoka, is expected to experience snow starting as early as 2 PM. In these areas, proactive decisions by school boards will be crucial to ensure safety, especially for students returning home in worsening weather.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, where the snow and strong winds are not expected to intensify until later in the day, the afternoon bus run should proceed without issue.

Ultimately, whether buses are cancelled will depend on how each school board interprets the forecast and balances the safety of students with the logistical realities of the storm’s timing. The further southeast you are located, the lower the chance of bus cancellations on Monday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka)
Rainbow District School Board
Algoma District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine, Southampton, Owen Sound, Hanover & Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)
Tri-Board (North Hastings)
Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska, Pembroke & Petawawa)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)
STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central & South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.