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Snow squalls continue to hammer portions of Southern Ontario tonight, particularly off the southeastern shores of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These squalls are producing bursts of heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and rapidly changing visibility across many areas. Travel remains extremely difficult in the hardest-hit zones, and reports continue to come in of near-zero visibility and snow quickly piling up on untreated roads.

The snow machine is far from done. These intense squalls are expected to persist through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. As winds shift slightly eastward, the heaviest activity may drift toward London, the southern half of Huron County, and even as far east as Barrie and northern Simcoe County.

Given these conditions, Tuesday morning is shaping up to be a challenging one for school transportation in the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay snowbelts. It’s difficult to imagine buses being able to safely operate in some of these areas with such intense, localized bursts of snow and blowing snow expected to continue right into the morning.

The highest likelihood for bus cancellations will be found in regions such as Sarnia-Lambton, Middlesex, London, Exeter, Stratford, and Listowel, extending into parts of Grey-Bruce, including Meaford and Owen Sound.

These areas fall directly under the snow squall bands and have been dealing with heavy accumulation and treacherous driving conditions since Monday. We’re assigning these regions a 75 to 90 percent chance of cancellations, depending on how the squalls align overnight.

Surrounding regions, including Chatham-Kent, Elgin, Oxford, and Simcoe Central, could go either way. These areas may see lighter snow at times, but if a squall shifts slightly in their direction early Tuesday, it could quickly turn things around. For that reason, we’ve placed them around the 50 percent mark, essentially a coin flip for a snow day.

Outside of the core snowbelt, the risk for bus cancellations drops off sharply. However, there’s still a 25 percent chance for some northern GTA communities, as the Georgian Bay squall could extend farther south or east for brief periods overnight, bringing bursts of snow to places like Newmarket or northern York Region.

The Niagara region also deserves a mention. Some lake enhancement from Lake Ontario could add to snowfall totals there, though the extent remains uncertain. For now, we’re giving Niagara a slight chance of cancellations, mainly due to potential early morning slick conditions if snow bands drift farther inland.

Elsewhere across Southern and Eastern Ontario, we’re not expecting any widespread cancellations. That said, because snow squalls are notoriously unpredictable, even areas outside the main snowbelt can occasionally see quick bursts of snow that lead to surprise disruptions. For most of the GTA, though, this is likely just a regular Tuesday, so don’t count on a snow day just yet.

All in all, the best odds of getting that coveted day off from school are in the traditional snowbelt zones near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For everyone else, it’s back to class, but with winter tires and a little extra caution on the morning commute.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.