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Patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is expected to develop across portions of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

While this freezing rain risk is not expected to be particularly impactful or widespread, it could still lead to a thin glaze of ice forming on untreated surfaces. This includes rural roads, sidewalks and vehicles, especially in areas where temperatures hover near the freezing mark through the night.

At this time, conditions are not expected to reach the threshold that would normally prompt widespread school bus cancellations. However, we cannot completely rule it out, especially if Environment Canada issues advisories overnight or if the freezing rain ends up being more widespread than currently forecast.

The most likely region to see an “ice day” is the North Hastings zone within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This area has a long history of being particularly cautious, largely due to its extensive network of rural routes where back road conditions can deteriorate quickly, even during relatively minor icing events. We have assigned this region a 25 percent chance to reflect that slightly elevated risk, though the overall lean remains toward buses running without major issues.

Elsewhere across the rural portions of Eastern, Central and Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a low 5 to 10 percent chance of cancellations. Most school boards are expected to operate normally on Wednesday, but a few localized decisions cannot be ruled out depending on overnight road conditions.

This includes areas covered by Tri-Board, the Renfrew County District School Board, the Upper Canada District School Board, the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Near North District School Board, the Simcoe County District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, the Upper Grand District School Board, the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board.

Outside of these regions, no weather-related school bus cancellations are expected on Wednesday. So for now, it looks like homework remains on the schedule.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.