'Snow Day' Forecast: Bus Cancellations Possible on Friday in Southwestern & Central Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/14/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Snow squalls are expected to intensify late Thursday and continue into Friday, bringing hazardous winter conditions to areas near Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. These squalls will be capable of producing whiteout conditions with near-zero visibility, making travel extremely dangerous. In addition, snowfall accumulation could be rapid, leading to difficult and potentially impassable road conditions.

Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings for several regions, highlighting the potential for snowfall totals between 20 and 40 cm by Friday afternoon. Given the expected intensity of these squalls, morning road conditions could be treacherous. As a result, school bus cancellations are highly likely in the hardest-hit areas.

The Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County are at the highest risk for bus cancellations, as these areas are expected to experience the most persistent and intense snowfall overnight. Surrounding regions will also need to keep a close eye on conditions, as the likelihood of cancellations will depend on how strong the squalls become and whether significant snowfall accumulates before the morning commute.

Please note: We are aware that some school boards have a PA day on Friday. If your school board is affected, you can disregard this forecast. However, we continue to provide these updates regardless of PA days, as not all school boards follow the same schedule.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound & Meaford)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

  • STWDSTS (Dufferin)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington)

  • Durham District School Board (North)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.