‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Another Likely Day of School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday
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Widespread snow squall activity has developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through the day on Tuesday and shows no signs of letting up as we head into the overnight hours and into Wednesday. These squalls are producing bursts of heavy snow, significantly reduced visibility and areas of blowing snow, creating very hazardous travel conditions in the snowbelt.
Localized snowfall totals of up to 20 to 30 cm are possible in the most persistent bands by Wednesday. With snow continuing to fall and winds remaining gusty, it is almost certain that school buses will be unable to operate safely in the hardest hit regions on Wednesday.
Our highest confidence for a snow day remains focused on areas east of Lake Huron, where the most intense and long-lasting squalls are expected. This includes all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, along with Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core of the snowbelt and feature a high number of rural routes that are especially vulnerable to drifting and whiteout conditions. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday.
A strong likelihood tier follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance of cancellations for Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board. While these areas are expected to see snow squall impacts, they sit slightly farther from the most intense activity. In the case of Simcoe County, the school board has shown a higher threshold for cancellations this season and has run buses in similar conditions before, which keeps confidence slightly lower despite the expectation of poor travel conditions.
In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included the Simcoe Central weather zone, Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are currently under snow squall warnings, but confidence is lower on how severe conditions will be during the morning bus run. Depending on how quickly squalls weaken or shift overnight, some of these areas may attempt to run buses despite the active alerts.
We have also placed Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services in the 50 percent category. This region has been impacted by snow squalls earlier today, and while snowfall has tapered off, road conditions may remain questionable into Wednesday morning, especially on secondary and rural routes.
Outside of the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off more quickly. A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and Belleville along with South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. Most of these areas are not expected to see significant snowfall, but localized blowing snow or lingering poor road conditions could still allow for a few surprise cancellations.
Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, Deep Southwestern Ontario and much of Eastern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday remains low. These regions are expected to see minimal impacts from the lake effect activity, with conditions remaining manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.
It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
