‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Students in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt Could See Another Day of Bus Cancellations on Thursday
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The story of the past few weeks across Southern Ontario has been relentless snow squall activity, leaving some communities with only a handful of actual school days during that stretch. Unfortunately for those hoping for a break, that pattern shows no real signs of ending just yet. Additional snow squall activity is expected to linger into Thursday, raising the likelihood of yet another snow day for parts of the region.
While this round of snow squalls is not expected to be as widespread as what we have seen over the last few days, regions east of Lake Huron will continue to deal with difficult travel conditions. Persistent bursts of snow, blowing snow, and reduced visibility are expected to remain an issue, particularly in areas that have already been repeatedly impacted and are still struggling to fully dig out.
Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations on Thursday is centred on Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This includes Kincardine, Southampton and the Bruce Peninsula. These areas sit squarely within the core snowbelt and are expected to continue seeing treacherous conditions into Thursday. With many rural routes still snow-covered and additional squalls possible, we have given this region a 90 percent chance of a snow day.
Surrounding areas also carry a strong likelihood of cancellations, though confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt. North Huron County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, have been assigned a 75 percent chance. Conditions in these areas are likely to be poor enough to justify cancellations, but there is more uncertainty given that the most persistent squall activity may remain closer to the Lake Huron shoreline north of Kincardine.
In our toss-up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron County and northern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Hanover within the Bluewater District School Board, and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board. These regions have been given a 50 percent chance, as outcomes will depend heavily on how far inland and how far south the snow squall bands are able to stretch during the morning and early afternoon.
Farther away from the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a 25 percent chance to southern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones. Snow squalls may occasionally brush these areas through Thursday, with Simcoe County being the most likely to see brief impacts. However, given the Simcoe County District School Board’s track record of maintaining a high threshold for cancellations and often running buses despite active alerts, we are leaning toward buses operating in most of these areas.
We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This region has seen substantial snowfall over the past several days from repeated snow squall activity. While the squalls themselves are expected to taper off by Thursday morning, backroads may still be in rough shape, which keeps the door open for potential cancellations.
Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Thursday remains low. Most regions outside of the Lake Huron snowbelt are not expected to see significant impacts from this round of squalls, and conditions should be manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.
It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
