Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, February 25, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

We are monitoring a system that now appears poised to bring more snowfall than previously indicated on Friday. The latest data has boosted the snow totals across Southern Ontario with widespread 10-15cm and even upwards of 20cm for parts of Eastern Ontario.

The first bands of precipitation have already reached the southwestern part of the province. Light to moderate snow will continue to spread to the northeast throughout the predawn hours on Friday and intensify through the GTA by 2-6 am and Central/Eastern Ontario by the late morning.

The timing of this event couldn’t be any worse for those commuting on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occurring around sunrise. This event will be more of a persistent moderate snowfall with hourly accumulation ranging from 1-3cm. As a result, travel will still be heavily impacted, but road crews should be able to keep up for the most part and shouldn’t be overwhelming.

Blowing snow could be an issue as 40-60km/h wind gusts combined with this light powdery snow are a recipe for reduced visibility. Based on the timing, school bus cancellations can’t be ruled out mainly in the more rural school boards as they tend to be more sensitive to weather conditions. See our snow day forecast here. Travel according to the conditions and if possible, delay any travel until later in the day. This will be a fairly fast-moving snowfall event as we expect it will taper off by the late morning for Southwestern Ontario and mid-afternoon in Eastern Ontario.

The biggest change compared to our initial forecast is the expected snowfall total. We have moved most regions up a level on our legend except for Southwestern Ontario. The highest totals will be found through Extreme Eastern Ontario including Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall with between 15-25cm of snow possible. The 12-20cm zone is now quite expansive including the rest of Eastern Ontario, parts of Central Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe.

Lower amounts are expected for Southwestern Ontario which should top out at somewhere around 6-12cm. Totals will decrease even further to the northwest with Northeastern Ontario only expected to pick up a few centimetres of fresh snow if anything at all.

It should be mentioned that this event does appear to have a significant lake enhancement element associated with it. What does this mean? Well, snowfall accumulation with these events tends to have quite an uneven distribution. For example, one location could see 20+cm of snow while just down the road there is less than half of that. Don’t be surprised to see some locations overachieve the forecast, but we believe it’s more realistic to focus on the overall general totals.

Conditions will rapidly improve later in the day on Friday leading into what appears to be a quiet weekend. May see some scattered flurries on Sunday for Central and Eastern Ontario, but nothing more than a few centimetres.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Friday, February 25, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

A widespread snowfall event is expected to affect Southern Ontario during the morning and afternoon on Friday. This will likely result in some school bus cancellations, but the amount of snow expected is right on the line for more widespread cancellations. Usually, anything over 15cm would result in almost guaranteed cancellations.

With this system, we’re expecting between 8-16cm with most of that occurring after the decision to cancel buses is made in the morning. It will require each school board to be proactive and right now most regions only have a travel advisory in effect from Environment Canada so they likely won’t view it as severe. There is a snowfall warning in effect for parts of Eastern Ontario and that school board tends to take weather alerts seriously so we believe they have a 75-90% chance of a snow day.

Outside of that, we have given a 50% chance for the more rural boards that tend to have a lower threshold for cancellations. The more urban school boards around the GTA range from 10-25% as we don’t believe the amount of snow expected will meet their higher threshold, but a few may surprise us depending on the road conditions.

As you can see, there is a higher amount of uncertainty regarding this forecast since it’s right on the line. If we see Environment Canada add some regions to the snowfall warning by morning then that would significantly increase the chance of a snow day. Otherwise, it’s a widespread ‘flip a coin’ day so don’t count on a snow day, but it’s not out of the question.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, February 25, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A system is expected to bring widespread accumulating snow throughout Southern Ontario beginning early Friday morning. The first bands of precipitation will reach regions around Lake Erie sometime around the midnight hour. Light to moderate snow will continue to spread to the northeast throughout the predawn hours on Friday reaching the GTA by 2-4 am and Central/Eastern Ontario by the late morning.

The timing of this event couldn’t be any worse for those commuting on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occurring around sunrise. This event will be more of a persistent moderate snowfall with hourly accumulation ranging from 1-3cm. As a result, travel will still be heavily impacted, but road crews should be able to keep up for the most part and shouldn’t be overwhelming.

Blowing snow could be an issue as 40-60km/h wind gusts combined with this light powdery snow are a recipe for reduced visibility. Based on the timing, school bus cancellations can’t be ruled out mainly in the more rural school boards as they tend to be more sensitive to weather conditions. Travel according to the conditions and if possible, delay any travel until later in the day. This will be a fairly fast-moving snowfall event as we expect it will taper off by the late morning for Southwestern Ontario and mid-afternoon in Eastern Ontario.

We are looking at the highest snowfall totals from this event through Eastern Ontario along with the Niagara/Hamilton region due to lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. General accumulation here will range from 12-20cm with locally up to 25cm possible. For the rest of the Golden Horseshoe and into parts of Central Ontario, we can expect totals of between 8 and 14cm although a few locations particularly through the GTA could exceed the 15cm mark. Lower amounts are expected for Southwestern Ontario which should top out at somewhere around 6-12cm. Totals will decrease even further to the northwest including Parry Sound and Algonquin Park only expected to pick up a few centimetres of fresh snow if anything at all.

It should be mentioned that this event does appear to have a significant lake enhancement element associated with it. What does this mean? Well, snowfall accumulation with these events tends to have quite an uneven distribution. For example, one location could see 20+cm of snow while just down the road there is less than half of that. Don’t be surprised to see some locations overachieve the forecast, but we believe it’s more realistic to focus on the overall general totals.

While there is a fair amount of confidence in the models with this forecast, we may have to make adjustments on Thursday. If the track shifts either to the north or south we would have to also shift our forecast based on that change. However, we shouldn’t see any major changes to the forecast.

Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, February 23, 2022

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Freezing rain throughout Central and Eastern Ontario is expected to continue overnight with temperatures remaining near the freezing mark going into Wednesday morning. In addition to this, a flash freeze is expected early Wednesday morning for those regions that did get above freezing which will lead to very icy road conditions. As a result, we expect another day of widespread school bus cancellations with affected regions being similar to what we saw on Tuesday.

Bus cancellations are almost certain for Sudbury, North Bay, Parry Sound, Muskoka, Haliburton and the Bancroft/Renfrew region with a 90% chance of an ‘ice day’. Road conditions and ongoing freezing rain makes it hard to see how busses could safely operate in this region. For Extreme Eastern Ontario including Ottawa, we have gone with a 75% chance here as there will be a slight warm-up early Wednesday morning allowing for some melting. But road conditions will likely still be quite hazardous, especially in rural areas.

The probability quickly decreases to the south and west where the freeze over will be more gradual and didn’t see much freezing rain. We still have a 5% chance in Deep Southwestern Ontario as temperatures will be slightly below the freezing at 6 AM and can’t rule out the very very slim chance of bus cancellations based on road conditions.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.