Ice/Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, March 7, 2022

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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

A winter storm is expected to impact Southern Ontario on Monday. This system will bring the threat of freezing rain and heavy snow to Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario. As a result, there is the potential for school bus cancellations on Monday morning. The highest chance for cancellations is for the London, K/W, and Guelph region where a freezing rain warning is currently in effect with a 75% chance. Usually, school buses are cancellated whenever there is an active freezing rain warning. Hamilton also has that freezing rain warning, but it’s a more urban school board and tends to have a higher threshold for cancellation so we’ve given them a 50% chance of an ‘ice day’.

A few other regions including Parry Sound, North Bay and Bancroft (North Hastings) also have a strong chance of seeing cancellations as those school boards have a history of being more sensitive to weather conditions. And a winter travel advisory should be sufficient to cause them to cancel buses there. Otherwise, we’ve given a widespread 25-50% for most regions across Southern Ontario mainly because it will be very subjective and depend on each individual school board. The precipitation starts later in the morning a few hours after the decision is made which makes it a tricky forecast. Generally it’s a toss-up on if a winter travel advisory is enough to result in cancellations.

It’s unlikely we will see cancellations for the urban regions including Windsor, Niagara, Halton, Peel, Toronto and Ottawa as the weather conditions likely won’t be severe enough for them. However, we still have given them a 10-25% chance so it’s not out of the question.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

FORECAST MAP WITH CITY LABELS

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Southern Ontario: Winter Storm Outlook for Monday, March 7, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

After a quick taste of spring-like weather across Southern Ontario on Sunday, we are expecting the return of wintery weather throughout the day on Monday. This is courtesy of a messy system set to bring a wide range of precipitation with heavy snow through much of Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley. Further south, the concern will be a fairly prolonged period of freezing rain for London, K/W, Guelph, GTA (away from the shoreline) and into the Kingston area. Those in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region should see minimal impact from this storm as we expect temperatures will remain just above the freezing mark throughout the event.

The precipitation associated with this system will start to move into the region from the southwest during the mid to late morning hours on Monday. This includes a band of freezing rain stretching along the Hwy 401 corridor from London to Northwestern GTA at the height of the morning commute so if you have to travel, make sure to leave plenty of time and drive according to the conditions. It appears that locations through the GTA that are right along the lakeshore should stay just warm enough to avoid the freezing rain. This includes Hamilton, Burlington, Mississauga and Downtown Toronto. However, it’s right on the line and if temperatures end up just a degree or two colder then they could also see the freezing rain. We have more confidence in the Niagara region and along the Lake Erie shoreline which should stay predominantly rain with maybe a brief round of freezing rain (less than an hour).

Precipitation will spread further to the north as it encounters colder air around Lake Simcoe and into Eastern Ontario. As a result, the main precipitation type will be ice pellets with some freezing rain in the south and snow to the north mixing in at times. This includes Goderich, Orangeville, Barrie and Cornwall. The ice pellet mix will linger into the afternoon before clearly late Monday from west to east. Total snowfall accumulation here is a little more uncertain depending on exactly how prevalent ice pellets are with this storm. Right now, we’re going with a general 5-10cm, but the potential for slightly below or above the forecasted totals can’t be ruled out. For Grand Bend, Newmarket and Peterborough they could see a few hours of freezing rain in addition to the ice pellets.

A band of moderate to heavy snowfall from this system will stretch from Grey-Bruce through Muskoka and into the Ottawa Valley starting late Monday morning and continuing into the afternoon. The colder air will hold on here so we are expecting little to no mixing except maybe some ice pellets. Total snowfall accumulation will range from 8-16cm by the end of Monday. The snow will taper off by the evening or closer to midnight for Eastern Ontario. Colder air will flow in behind the system as it moves out by Monday late afternoon so don’t be surprised to see some light snow throughout Southern Ontario outside of the snow zone on our map. But accumulation should be minor as the snow will be quite wet and surfaces will still be wet from the earlier rainfall.

We could see some icy road conditions as temperatures drop well below the freezing mark overnight Monday. This may also further enhance the impact of the earlier freezing rain accretion as it won’t have a chance to melt in some locations before the cooldown occurs. Power outages even into Tuesday aren’t out of the question as tree branches and power lines break under the stress of the ice accretion. Thankfully we only expect 8mm of ice accretion at most from this system so overall impacts shouldn’t be too significant.

Early Taste of Spring Across Southern Ontario on Sunday With Double-Digit Temperatures, Damaging Wind Storm and Thunderstorm Risk

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We are in for quite the wild ride when it comes to the weather across Southern Ontario over the next few days. The active weather will begin on Sunday as a system ushers unseasonably warm air into the region which will result in many areas seeing temperatures reach into the double digits for early Sunday. However, this blast of warm air will be accompanied by rain and even non-severe thunderstorms mainly during the morning on Sunday. We aren’t expecting a significant amount of rain so flooding shouldn’t be a major concern, but areas that experience thunderstorm activity could see locally higher rainfall totals. Looking at general rainfall totals ranging from 5-10mm with locally 10-20mm in those locations that see the thunderstorms.

The biggest story from this system will certainly be what is shaping up to be a potentially significant wind storm across Southern Ontario. These strong wind gusts will start to pick up in Southwestern Ontario just after midnight and continue to persist throughout the morning on Sunday. Later in the morning, we will see the damaging wind gusts expand further to the east including the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario. We expect the worst of this wind storm will be felt during the late morning and early afternoon with the winds weakening later in the day as we head into the evening hours.

Current indications suggest that the strongest wind gusts will be found through the Niagara and Hamilton region. Especially around the Grimsby and Niagara-on-the-Lake area that borders the Lake Ontario shoreline. We believe that wind gusts here could exceed 110km/h at the height of the event and potentially even approach the 115-125km/h range. This could result in very severe wind damage throughout the region including the possibility of power outages. Be sure to secure anything on your property that could be blown away!

Those around the Lake Ontario and Erie shoreline along with through the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands can expect wind gusts of between 90-110km/h. This includes Deep Southwestern Ontario (Windsor, Chatham and London) along with the K/W, GTA and Kingston regions. The rest of Southwestern Ontario into parts of Central/Eastern Ontario are looking at wind gusts ranging from 85-95km/h. Less of an impact when it comes to the strong wind gusts are expected further to the north and west including Algonquin Park, North Bay and Sudbury which will still see strong wind gusts but shouldn’t reach severe levels.

As mentioned, this system will temporarily boost the temperatures across Southern Ontario with the warmest air from Windsor through London and around the GTA. The daytime temperature here will range from 14 to 18°C and we can’t even rule out one or two locations even flirting with the 20s, but it’s questionable.

Don’t expect these warm temperatures to last all day as the daytime high will likely be hit sometime during the late morning or early afternoon and quickly drop back into the single digits later in the day. The rest of Southern Ontario except for northern parts of Central Ontario and Northeastern Ontario will see a daytime high in the low to mid-teens.

This will be short-lived as below-freezing temperatures will return to much of Southern Ontario by Sunday night! The drop in temperature to below freezing appears to be fairly gradual so a flash freeze shouldn’t be a threat, but that could change. However, we are watching what could be an impactful winter storm across Southern Ontario on Monday and Tuesday. This also includes the risk of prolonged freezing rain for a large portion of the region. More details on that are to come on Sunday once the exact impact is more certain.

There will also be a cold side to this system, but for the most part, the wintery precipitation will stay to the north of Southern Ontario. Although there is a brief risk of freezing rain during the very early morning hours on Sunday for Northern Central Ontario and into the Ottawa region. This will quickly come to an end as temperatures rise well above the freezing mark later in the morning. More prolonged freezing rain is expected through Northeastern Ontario including Elliot Lake, Sudbury and North Bay. See our Northern Ontario forecast for more details on the impacts this system will have there.

Northern Ontario: Winter Storm Outlook for Saturday, March 5 to Sunday, March 6, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A messy winter storm is setting its sights on Northeastern Ontario for the weekend with a variety of precipitation types associated with it. Precipitation from this storm will begin to work into the province around Lake Superior during the afternoon on Saturday. It appears that this initial round of precipitation should come down in the form of snow stretching from Thunder Bay through Marathon and into Cochrane. Later in the afternoon, more persistent bands of precipitation will spread across the region where we will likely start to see some ice pellets mix in around the Marathon and Wawa region.

As we head into the evening and early overnight hours. we will see the precipitation spread further to the south which will lead to the development of a fairly expansive line of freezing rain. Locations such as Sault Ste. Marie, Chapleau and Temiskaming Shores can expect several hours of freezing rain overnight into Sunday morning. Ice accretion here could exceed 12mm which could lead to a significant impact on travel along with power outages. Areas around the northern shoreline of Georgian Bay such as Elliot Lake, Sudbury and North Bay could also see this freezing rain risk. However, it should slowly transition over to rain early Sunday morning.

Heavy snow along with ice pellets will continue to the north throughout the day on Sunday. We’re looking at widespread snowfall accumulation of between 15-25cm (locally up to 30cm) for Marathon, Kapuskasing and Cochrane. A zone including Wawa and Timmins will see a bit of everything with 5-15cm of snow, up to 5cm of ice pellets and even a few hours of freezing rain possible. Snowfall totals will decrease further to the northwest where less moisture will be present from this system. Precipitation will taper off by the late afternoon on Sunday.