Hurricane Fiona Could Be a Record Breaker When It Barrels Into Nova Scotia This Weekend

As Hurricane Fiona has continued its approach towards Atlantic Canada, we have become increasingly confident in just how strong of a storm we are facing. Fiona is currently a very strong, dangerous storm and it will continue to be when it finally makes landfall overnight Friday. At this point, it will be considered a Post-Tropical Cyclone and despite the name, it will still be hurricane strength. During the transition into a Post-Tropical storm, the storm will actually grow in size, and its impacts will be felt across all of Atlantic Canada.

This could very easily end up being a historic storm, potentially breaking a 45 year old Canadian record for lowest pressure ever from St. Anthony, Newfoundland in 1977. That records stands at 940.2mb and every weather model is predicting well below this value, with some suggesting that Fiona could make landfall with a pressure as low as 915mb. A more likely scenario, although still record-breaking, would be in the 925-935mb range. These extreme low pressure values will be what drives the hurricane-force winds, giant waves, and dangerous storm surge as Fiona comes ashore. Although difficult to pinpoint the exact location, it appears that Fiona will make landfall as a high-end Category 2 storm somewhere between Drum Head and Canso Saturday morning. From there, it will travel northeast and across Northern Cape Breton Island throughout the day Saturday.

The winds from Fiona will first be felt across the province in the late evening and will continue to strengthen before reaching their peak in the early morning hours on Saturday, just before the centre of the storm makes landfall. The southern shore of Cape Breton Island, including Sydney, will see the strongest winds with gusts over 140 km/h. The rest of Cape Breton and the Highlands are in the 130-140 km/h range. As this winds wrap around the storm and come from the north to the west of Cape Breton Island, stronger gusts are possible along parts of the northern shore of the Highlands. Wind gusts decrease moving westwards, but will still be quite strong. The weakest wind gusts are expected to be 80-90 km/h in the Yarmouth area. The winds will begin to diminish in the early afternoon before becoming light in the evening and overnight Saturday. The strength of winds expected can easily cause structural damage and bring down trees, especially since there are still leaves on the trees.

The rain that will accompany the wind will also be significant for most of Nova Scotia. The heaviest rain will be widespread to include areas to the north and west of the centre of the storm. Most of Eastern Nova Scotia will see in excess of 100mm of rain, with the possibility of up to 200mm for areas closer to where the centre of the storm tracks. This amount of rain, mixed with already saturated ground, will quickly result in flooding and road washouts.

The final threat from Hurricane Fiona will come in the form of large waves, storm surge, and subsequent coastal flooding. Waves are expected to be between 10 and 14 metres which will coincide with high tide and peak storm surge so there is a threat of a considerable amount of coastal flooding, especially along the southern coast of Cape Breton Island.

Given where Fiona is expected to track across Nova Scotia, prolonged widespread power outages are very likely across much of the province. The major powerlines that run along the Canso Causeway and provide power to thousands of customers across the province are in danger of being damaged as the storm moves directly through the area.

Nova Scotia EMO has suggested that all residents should have an emergency kit ready and to be prepared in the event of possible long-term power outages. In your emergency kit, you should have at least 72 hours worth of emergency supplies that include water, non-perishable food, medication, baby formula, pet food, batteries, gas in vehicles, and charged phones. A stash of storm chips is also highly recommended. Additionally, there are shelter options available if you cannot stay in your home. If you live in an area that may be especially at risk from the storm surge, it is recommended that you consider moving to higher ground. Additional information can be found at the Nova Scotia EMO website. It is important to also be prepared to evacuate if given the order by emergency personnel, especially those living in low-laying coastal around along the southern shores of the province. If you must leave your shelter during the storm, please be cautious of falling trees and powerlines, washed out roads, as well as rising and faster moving water in rivers and streams. Stay away from beaches and if you approach a flooded road turn around, don’t drown.

This will be a storm for the history books, but it will be over after 24 hours. In the meantime, stay safe!

Last Day of Summer on Wednesday to Feature Potentially Dangerous Thunderstorms Including Tornado Risk Across Southern Ontario

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It appears that the last day of ‘astronomical’ summer (meteorological summer ended at the start of the month) will go out with a bang for parts of Southern Ontario. This is courtesy of a strong cold front expected to sweep across the region on Wednesday and spark off potentially widespread severe thunderstorms starting early in the afternoon and continuing throughout the day. There is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and intensity of the storms, but the environment is certainly favourable for a widespread damaging wind event along with the risk of tornadoes.

Current data suggest that the target zone for the strongest storms will be around the Georgian Bay shoreline in Central Ontario. However, not all models show storms developing to take advantage of the prime environment or developing too early in the day when daylight heating hasn’t built up enough. The most likely scenario appears to be a cluster of discrete storms developing over Lake Huron or Georgian Bay around the noon hour and tracking to the southeast throughout the early afternoon. This is when we believe the tornado risk will be at the highest as they come onshore around the Kincardine, Owen Sound, Collingwood, Barrie, Midland and Muskoka Lakes region between 12-2 PM (note: this timeframe is preliminary and may need to be changed). Large hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible from these storms.

As the storms continue to race across the region during the early afternoon, we expect to see the discrete cells slowly merge into a squall line with further development in Deep Southwestern Ontario. This means that the main threat will transition into a widespread damaging wind gust event as it tracks into the GTA and Niagara region by the mid to late afternoon. An isolated tornado still can’t be ruled out, but the risk is a lot stronger earlier in the day. It looks like Eastern Ontario will be spared from the worst of this severe threat, however, those in the far southeast including Belleville and Kingston could still be affected as the squall line tracks across Lake Ontario and into Upstate New York.

Keep in mind this is a very preliminary forecast as there is significant disagreement on storm development and exact timing which will determine the overall severity of these storms. It’s likely that we will have to make adjustments to the forecast based on the latest data from this evening and in the morning. While we’ve gone with a significant severe risk based on the environment, we may need to downgrade if it becomes apparent that storm development is more isolated or too early in the day. Be sure to check back on Wednesday for the very latest.

In addition to this, it will certainly feel like fall by the end of the week with colder air moving into Southern Ontario on Thursday and Friday. Some parts of our region will struggle to get above single digits as a daytime high on Thursday with a chill start on Friday morning as temperatures dip to near the freezing mark. We may even have to start talking about the risk of frost in higher elevations of Central and Eastern Ontario!

IMPORTANT: If storms start developing, we will likely be live-streaming via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch as we track every developing storm and notify those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website, however, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately as we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes via our website due to the fact that we have to enter those in manually.

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FORECAST UPDATE: Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Monday Across Southern and Northeastern Ontario

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As we mentioned in our preliminary forecast yesterday, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms across Southern Ontario for Monday afternoon and continuing into the evening/overnight hours. While the focus yesterday appeared to be the Lake Simcoe region and the Lake Huron shoreline, we have now expanded the severe risk into the Ottawa Valley. Current data indicates that storms may pop up further to the northeast than expected and combined with a very robust environment, they could become quite severe with all severe threats including tornadoes possible.

Heading into the afternoon, we will be watching two zones for the development of isolated storms through Central and Northeastern Ontario. Storms are expected to pop up around the Collingwood/Barrie area early this afternoon and track to the northeast through northern Kawartha Lakes, Bancroft and Renfrew/Pembroke. These storms have the potential to bring damaging wind gusts, large hail and an isolated tornado. Some models are hinting towards some storm development over Lake Ontario which could affect Prince Edward County and Kingston, but the potential isn’t high enough to warrant upgrading them to the next severe level.

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Similarly, we also expect to see some development in the north around the Wawa and Kapuskasing area this afternoon and slowly track to the east towards the Quebec border. Locations like Timmins, Cochrane and Chapleau have the highest chance of a tornado, but the risk of a tornado can’t be ruled out throughout Northeastern Ontario including Sudbury, Elliot Lake and North Bay.

The squall line that was expected to affect the Lake Huron shoreline will still present a risk but is now expected to develop over Michigan and not reach our region until late evening. As a result, the main threat with this line will be very strong wind gusts (90-100km/h) stretching from Tobermory and all the way into the Windsor area. We have kept the tornado risk along the Lake Huron shoreline and into Deep Southwestern Ontario, but the environment won’t be as strong after sunset so it’s questionable at best. If we do see a tornado, it would likely be right along the shoreline as the storms make landfall late in the evening. It will continue to track to the east throughout the overnight hour, but the severe risk will diminish as the line slowly weakens after midnight.

IMPORTANT: If storms start developing, we will likely be live-streaming via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch as we track every developing storm and notify those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website, however, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately as we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes via our website due to the fact that we have to enter those in manually.

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ONTARIO: Noisy Start to the Last Week of Summer With the Risk of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes on Monday

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It’s the time of the year when summer winds down and we have to start talking about the f-word. No, not that f-word (well not yet that is), but rather it’s the end of August which means fall is almost here! Meteorological autumn actually begins on Thursday as the calendar turns from August to September while the more standard astronomical autumn doesn’t begin for a few more weeks. Although we might be saying goodbye to summer, it doesn’t mean that Mother Nature is quite done with summer-like weather just yet! It certainly doesn’t feel like fall which will continue into Monday as we expect hot and humid temperatures across Southern Ontario. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue Heat Warnings for the Windsor-Essex and Niagara regions with the humidex making it feel into the upper thirties.

As we are all accustomed to, the hot weather also provides the perfect fuel for thunderstorms and that will be the case for Monday afternoon into the evening. This will all begin pre-dawn Monday as some decaying storms move into the region from Michigan. Based on the timing, we aren’t expecting any severe weather for Monday morning and it’s even questionable if we see any lightning. However, it will bring rain and cloud cover to Southern Ontario throughout the morning which will be key in setting the stage for severe storm development later in the day. If the morning rain can clear out early enough, it will allow for enough daylight heating to build and fuel the potential storms for the afternoon and evening. If it lingers around into the afternoon, this will push any development to later in the day when the environment will be less favourable for any storms to become severe.

At this point, we are assuming that the storms clear out early enough so our forecast is based on that. So keep in mind that confidence isn’t super higher and we may need to make adjustments by early Monday afternoon once we see what happens with the morning activity. We are watching two potential regions where storms could develop with the first round of storms popping up around the Collingwood and Hanover area during the mid-afternoon. These isolated cells will track to the northeast towards Lake Simcoe with all severe threats on the table including damaging wind gusts, large hail and even an isolated tornado that can’t be ruled out.

By the dinner hour, we expect to see some storms begin to fire up over Lake Huron and quickly form into a squall line by the early evening. Although there is some disagreement between the models with some showing the line forming over Central Michigan and not reaching our region until later in the evening. Exactly where this line forms will be critical in determining the risk it will pose to Southern Ontario. Should the storms develop over Lake Huron, they will reach the shoreline around 7-9 PM with all severe threats including a tornado possible. The line will slowly to the southeast throughout the evening and transition into more of a damaging wind risk with the hail and tornado risk diminishing further inland. We should see the severe risk come to an end by late evening as the line of storms weaken into non-severe thunderstorms and track into Eastern Ontario overnight.

For those in Eastern Ontario, we are watching the potential risk of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon and evening. It isn’t looking that widespread at this point, but still could be an issue. We will have more details as we get closer to Tuesday. As we mentioned, this forecast is preliminary and may need to be updated on Monday once we see how the morning precipitation plays out. Stay tuned and check back for the very latest!

IMPORTANT: If storms start developing, we will likely be live-streaming via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch as we track every developing storm and notify those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website, however, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately as we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes via our website due to the fact that we have to enter those in manually.

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MONDAY: Environment Canada Forecasting a Tornado Risk for Monday, August 29, 2022

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Environment Canada has highlighted a tornado risk for Monday, August 29th, 2022 in the “D” zone of the map, which includes parts of Southwestern Ontario, Central Ontario, and Northeastern Ontario. They’ve also highlighted a “Moderate” severe risk in “C” zone that covers much of southern Ontario. And Eastern Ontario seems to be left out for Monday’s severe risk on their forecast. However, seeing as we’re two days away from this event, the placement could shift some.

Environment Canada writes: “Organized areas of thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. These thunderstorms have the potential to become severe with wind gusts near 90 km/h, toonie size hail and 50 mm of rain. While there is a great deal of uncertainty, there appears to be the potential for tornadic development.”

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We at Instant Weather are working on our preliminary forecast for Monday’s storms and we’ll be posting it ASAP. To get notified when we post the forecast, download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts via PayPal (easiest for our team) or if you’re not on PayPal, you can subscribe directly via our website either monthly or annually. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Below are location specific details from Environment Canada’s forecast. To clarify, these details are only currently available via an email list and are occasionally posted to their twitter account:

Location: Northern portions of southwestern Ontario as well as central Ontario.

Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings and break branches off trees. Large hail can damage property. Localized flooring in low-lying areas is possible. Power outages are possible. Scattered lightning strikes.

Confidence: Low.

Description: Organized areas of thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. These thunderstorms have the potential to become severe with wind gusts near 90 km/h, toonie size hail and 50 mm of rain. While there is a great deal of uncertainty, there appears to be the potential for tornadic development.

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Location: Portions of southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings and break branches off trees. Large hail can damage property. Localized flooring in low-lying areas is possible. Power outages are possible. Scattered lightning strikes.

Confidence: Low.

Description: Organized areas of thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. These thunderstorms have the potential to become severe with wind gusts near 90 km/h, nickel size hail and 40 mm of rain.

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Location: Portions of northern and eastern Ontario.

Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects and break branches off trees. Small hail can damage plants and crops. Isolated to scattered lightning strikes.

Confidence: Low.

Description: Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and continue into Monday evening. Some of these thunderstorm have the potential to be accompanied by strong wind gusts and small hail.

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More details ASAP!

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ONTARIO: Relief From Extreme Heat in Sight With Severe Thunderstorm Risk on Monday

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After a sweltering weekend across Southern Ontario with the humidex making it feel into the 40s for many locations, we are expecting a welcoming cooldown on Monday. This is courtesy of a cold front that will sweep across the region later Monday which will also bring the risk of thunderstorms. For the most part, these storms should remain non-severe, however, the environment is favourable for a few severe storms to affect parts of Southwestern Ontario and into the K/W and Hamilton regions.

Current weather guidance shows the potential for a cluster of cells to develop over Lake Huron during the mid to late afternoon hours. These storms will slowly track to the southeast making landfall along the shoreline between Goderich and Sarnia. From damaging wind gusts and large hail to maybe even an isolated tornado, all types of storm threats can't be ruled out. The tornado risk is the strongest along the shoreline, particularly around the Grand Bend area, but this will depend on the exact strength of the environment at the time and where the storms make landfall. As we head into the evening hours, these storms will begin to transition into more of a wind and flash flooding risk for Windsor, Chatham, K/W and Hamilton as they continue to track to the southeast.

A few clusters of thunderstorms are also expected to develop through Central and Eastern Ontario during the afternoon and evening hours, but they should remain non-severe with heavy rainfall as the main threat. For the GTA and Niagara region, they will see some thunderstorm activity late in the evening from the Lake Huron cells, but they should be much weaker by this point and will pose much less of a threat compared to earlier in the day.

Please note that this forecast is based on the current data and is subject to change as we get closer to the event. While we try our best to be as accurate as possible, forecasting severe weather is tricky and it’s impossible to be perfect. We will continue to go over the latest data and may make adjustments to the forecast sometime early on Monday. Stay tuned and check back for the latest information!

IMPORTANT: If storms start developing, we will likely be live-streaming via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch as we track every developing storm and notify those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website, however, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately as we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes via our website due to the fact that we have to enter those in manually.

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MANITOBA: Significant Severe Weather Risk With Outbreak Potential (Tue, Aug 2, 2022)

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TODAY (Tue, Aug 2nd, 2022): A significant severe weather risk is in place this evening. Additionally, a severe weather outbreak is possible in parts of eastern Manitoba, especially towards the Ontario border this evening. There is also a fairly widespread but uncertain risk across much of the region. By uncertain, we mean that the majority of those in western and perhaps even deep south-central Manitoba may end up not seeing a drop of rain, let alone a severe thunderstorm. For those who do experience the strongest storms this evening, the risks are damaging wind gusts (120km/h+), significant hail (2-7cm+), flooding, intense lightning, and tornadoes. There could also be one or two significant tornado, especially in the pink/purple (5) region.

Environment Canada has also issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange (B) for the Winnipeg regions. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 120km/h damaging wind gusts, 5-7cm hail, lightning, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (A), which includes Brandon and Dauphin, the risks are 90km/h wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, and lightning.

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Here’s some of the details from Environment Canada’s tweet: “Severe thunderstorms will move through southern MB today. All thunderstorm hazards are possible, including very strong wind gusts, very large hail and the possibility of tornadoes. Have a safety plan in place before the storms reach you: http://ow.ly/5Jjt50K9zyC” And some highlights from their scientific forecast: “Another convective day is on tap for the eastern prairies, this time over southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba... ...All modes of severe weather are possible today, with wind and hail being the main threats... ...hail of 5-7 cm in diameter cannot be ruled out. Tornadoes are also possible over southern Manitoba... ...However, there will be capping this afternoon, which will have an effect on the initiation timing and location of the storms.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

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ALBERTA: Significant Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Tennis Ball Hail, 120km/h Wind Gusts, & Tornadoes (Mon, Aug 1, 2022)

Monday, August 1st, 2022: Significant severe weather is expected today across a large swath of Alberta. Damaging wind gusts of 120km/h+, large damaging hail of 3-6cm+, flooding, frequent lightning, and the risk for isolated tornadoes are all on the table with the strongest storms that develop.

Below, Environment Canada has also issued their forecast map for today and it includes a “high” risk area in orange (A) for areas north of Calgary and south of Edmonton, AKA the Red Deer regions.

The yellow area is a “Moderate” risk and that brings the potential of 90-110km/h wind gusts, 2-5cm hail, 50mm of rainfall, and lightning.

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Here’s some of the details from Environment Canada’s scientific forecast: “Thunderstorms are the main weather concern of the day today. Very unstable conditions will exist from Grande Prairie to Oyen... ...These storms will begin as isolated storms and may quickly develop into classic supercells producing heavy rain, large hail and local wind gusts. As they move through the evening they are expected to organize into lines. Strong wind gusts will be the primary hazard associated with these lines. Thunderstorms that develop along surface trough will be... ...bringing the risk of tornadoes.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

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Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Afternoon & Evening (Mon, Aug 1, 2022)

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Monday, August 1st, 2022:

This afternoon and evening has the potential to bring with it isolated severe thunderstorms. By isolated, we mean the majority of our community will not see severe thunderstorms today. However, those who do may experience hail (1-2cm), damaging wind gusts (90km/h+), frequent lightning, and isolated flooding. Isolated tornado activity cannot be ruled out and we’ll be watching very closely for any rotation on radar or any reports from our extraordinary community! The main risk is in Southwestern Ontario and areas highlighted in Orange, perhaps extending towards Central Ontario and areas south and southeast of Lake Simcoe. We didn’t highlight Niagara in a severe risk but a rouge severe thunderstorm heading in that direction isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibilities. Muskoka, Northeastern Ontario, and isolated parts of Eastern Ontario have some isolated severe risk but overall, the severe thunderstorms risk in those areas are is low.

IMPORTANT: We’ll likely be livestreaming via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch, tracking every developing storm and notifying those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website, however, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately as we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes via our website due to the fact that we have to enter those in manually.

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Long story short, we’ll be watching closely and please have a plan, especially in southwestern Ontario for some isolated severe weather this afternoon.

Overnight, Morning, Afternoon & Evening Severe Thunderstorm Potential (Sun, July 24, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Overnight: An overnight MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) of severe thunderstorms is likely overnight in deep southwestern Ontario. It’s expected to begin sometime after midnight and could cause damaging wind gusts, small hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. A brief tornado isn’t entirely out of the question in Essex County, Chatham-Kent regions, etc. Having said all of this, some models suggest this particular MCS storm system could weaken as it reaches our region. We’ll be watching closely!

Morning: Another line of storms will move after the first round and this show should up between 4am and 7am, again moving in from Michigan into southwestern Ontario. This morning line could potentially be stronger than the overnight MSC and the same risks will be present from damaging winds, torrential rain, hail, lightning, isolated flooding and again, an isolated tornado cannot be entire ruled out.

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Afternoon: We should see widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon through a large swath of the region. There will be a mix of non-severe and severe storms and some of the strongest signals could be northwest, north, and northeast of Lake Ontario. It could get quite messy with widespread precipitation in many locations. All severe risks remain on the table though this period.

Evening: Some data is suggesting the strongest storms of the day could arrive in the evening hours (6pm - 9pm) in southwestern Ontario and push east into areas like Hamilton and parts of the GTHA and Niagara.

Tornado Risk: We’ve only covered the orange (3) areas in a tornado risk on our map as that area has the best chance. However, an isolated tornado occurring in the yellow (2) isolated severe risk areas cannot be entirely ruled out.

IMPORTANT: We’ll be with you every step of the way and we may or may not livestream via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch. Regardless of if we decide to stream or not, we’ll be tracking every developing storm and notifying those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website. However, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately. As we have to enter the subscriptions on our website in by hand, we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes before we get tied up with tracking these storms.

More details ASAP!

Significant Severe Thunderstorm & Tornado Risk (Wed, Jul 20, 2022)

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Wednesday, July 20th, 2022:

Potentially two or even three rounds of widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to move through southwestern Ontario this afternoon and move east through evening hours into areas like the GTHA, Central Ontario, Niagara, Northeastern and Eastern Ontario. Several tornadoes would not be out of the question and perhaps even one or two strong tornadoes. Large hail (1-3cm), damaging wind gusts (120km/h+), frequent lightning, and isolated flooding are all on the table. Environment Canada has even issued a “High” risk and have now issued Tornado Watches. Remember, “Watch for a Warning”. Watches come first, warnings mean take shelter.

IMPORTANT: Please, take a deep breath. Please, do not panic. This isn’t the 1980’s where you didn’t find out about a tornado until hours after it happened. Our team will be live with you every step of the way on Wednesday via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch tracking every developing storm and notifying those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts (if you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website, however, the PayPal option is automated so it will work immediately and we may not be able to get to everyone who subscribes via our website as we have to enter those in manually).

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Long story short, please have a plan if you’re in the path of these storms. It could get quite dangerous and the more prepared you are, the less intimidating it will be. Be safe, folks!

Significant Severe Thunderstorm Risk (Wed, Jul 20, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Wednesday, July 20th, 2022:

Above is our preliminary forecast map, which could very well end up being the map we continue with later today. Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in southwestern Ontario beginning most likely in the late afternoon and evening hours. If storms develop early enough and get to full strength in southwestern Ontario by 5-6pm, several tornadoes would not be out of the question and perhaps even one or two strong tornadoes. Large hail (1-3cm), damaging wind gusts (110km/h+), frequent lightning, and isolated flooding are all on the table. Environment Canada has even issued a “High” risk and we talk more about that further down the page.

IMPORTANT: Please, take a deep breath. Please, do not panic. This isn’t the 1980’s where you didn’t find out about a tornado until hours after it happened. Our team will be live with you every step of the way on Wednesday via YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Twitch tracking every developing storm and notifying those in the path of any rotation, tornado reports, damaging winds, and large hail on our free app Instant Weather and via our premium Text Message Alerts (if you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our text messages directly on our website).

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Environment Canada has posted a “High” risk forecast map with fairly similar regions to our forecast map and a mention of “Damaging wind gusts to 110 km/h and toonie sized hail are the main threats, however a few tornadoes are also possible. A significant tornado cannot be ruled out.”

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

In their description they wrote:

Area A:

Location: Portions of southwestern and central Ontario, as far north as Lake Nipissing.

Impacts: Very strong wind gusts can damage buildings, down trees and blow large vehicles off the road. Power outages are likely. Large hail can damage property and cause injury.

Confidence: Medium.

Description: Severe thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and will move west to east through the area. Damaging wind gusts to 110 km/h and toonie sized hail are the main threats, however a few tornadoes are also possible. A significant tornado cannot be ruled out.

Area B:

Location: Portions of southwestern, central and northeastern Ontario, as well as the GTA.

Impacts: High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Power outages are possible. Large hail can damage property and cause injury.

Confidence: Medium.

Description: Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. The main threats with these storms will be wind gusts to 100 km/h and nickel sized hail. The eastern extent of this threat area is uncertain at this time.

Area C:

Location: Northeastern and eastern Ontario, as well as areas north of Lake Superior.

Impacts: Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Isolated lightning strikes.

Confidence: Medium.

Description: Isolated thunderstorms with heavy downpours are possible.

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Long story short slightly longer; please have a plan if you’re in the path of these storms. It could get quite dangerous and the more prepared you are, the less intimidating it will be. Be safe!

HIGH RISK: Environment Canada Forecasting 2-6cm Hail & Risk For Tornadoes (Sun, July 10, 2022)

TODAY (Sun, July 10th, 2022): Another day, another severe thunderstorm risk! Environment Canada has once again issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange (B) for the Yorkton regions and areas east of Regina. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90-100km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-6cm tennis ball sized hail, lightning, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (A), which includes the Regina, Moose Jaw, and Swift Current areas, the risks are 2-4cm hail, lightning, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

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Here’s some highlights from Environment Canada’s scientific forecast: “The next area of convective initiation will be focused over eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba… ….storms that develop in this environment are likely to become severe with hail and wind the predominant threats. However… ….an isolated tornado is possible.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

HIGH RISK: Environment Canada Forecasting 2-5cm Hail & Risk For Tornadoes (Sun, July 10, 2022)

TODAY (Sun, July 10th, 2022): Environment Canada has once again issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange (D) for areas close to the Manitoba and International borders, such as Fort Frances. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90-110km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-5cm hail, 30-50mm of rainfall, lightning, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (C), which includes the Thunder Bay, Kenora, and Dryden areas, the risks are 2-4cm hail, 90-100km/h damaging wind gusts, 30-50mm of rainfall, lightning, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

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Here are the details from Environment Canada’s forecast:

”Location C & D: Portions of northwestern Ontario and north of Lake Superior.

Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects and cause tree branches to break. Large hail can damage property and cause injury. Heavy rainfall can cause water pooling on roads and localized flooding in low lying areas.

Confidence: Medium.

Description: Thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Some of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 110 km/h, up to golf ball sized hail and heavy downpours producing up to 50 mm of rainfall. The possibility of tornadoes also can not be ruled out.

Location A: Portions of northwestern and far northwestern Ontario, northeastern and far northeastern Ontario and north of Superior.

Impacts: Isolated lightning strikes and poor visibilities in heavy downpours.

Confidence: Medium.

Description: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today into tonight.

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Location B: Portions of northeastern and far northeastern Ontario.

Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects and cause tree branches to break. Small hail can damage some plants.

Confidence: Low to medium.

Description: Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night capable of producing wind gusts up to 80 km/h and pea to nickel sized hail.”

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Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

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HIGH RISK: Environment Canada Forecasting 2-6cm Hail & Risk For Tornadoes (Sun, July 10, 2022)

TODAY (Sun, July 10th, 2022): Another day, another severe thunderstorm risk! Environment Canada has once again issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange (B) for the Brandon and Dauphin regions. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90-100km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-6cm tennis ball sized hail, lightning, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (A), which includes the Winnipeg areas, the risks are 2-4cm hail, lightning, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

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Here’s some highlights from Environment Canada’s scientific forecast: “Early this afternoon… over extreme southeastern Manitoba, the environment will be supportive of severe thunderstorms… Thunderstorms that develop in this environment will likely become severe with all modes of severe weather possible. A couple caveats to this set-up though, the storm environment may be polluted by cloud from morning convection. As well, the cold front moves through southeastern Manitoba early this afternoon so there may not be enough time for daytime heating to fully destabilize the environment. After the cold front moves through, the risk fully moves into northwestern Ontario.

The next area of convective initiation will be focused over eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba… ….storms that develop in this environment are likely to become severe with hail and wind the predominant threats. However… ….an isolated tornado is possible.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

MODERATE RISK: Environment Canada's Severe Thunderstorm Forecast (Sat, July 9, 2022)

TODAY (Sat, July 9th, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “moderate” risk area in yellow (A) for the Saskatoon and Yorkton regions. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90km/h wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, 50mm of rainfall, and lightning.

There is also a very small “high” risk region in orange (B) near the Manitoba border in areas east of Yorkton. The risks in this area are 90km/h wind gusts, 3-6cm hail, 50mm of rainfall, lightning, and the risk for tornadoes.

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Here’s some of the details from Environment Canada’s scientific forecast: “Severe convection is expected again... The area of possible severe weather is broad today… …supporting all types of severe weather… …Given this thunderstorm environment, all modes of severe weather are possible with thunderstorms that develop, with up to golf ball sized hail and larger, 90 km/h wind gusts and development of tornadoes possible.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

HIGH RISK: Environment Canada Forecasting 2-6cm Hail & Risk For Tornadoes (Sat, July 9, 2022)

TODAY (Sat, July 9th, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange (B) for the Winnipeg, Brandon, and Dauphin regions. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-6cm tennis ball sized hail, 50mm of rainfall, lightning, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (A), which includes The Pas, the risks are 90km/h wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, and lightning.

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Here’s some of the details from Environment Canada’s tweet: “A high risk that severe thunderstorms will develop over southern MB Saturday afternoon. All forms of severe weather will be possible with these storms.” And some highlights from their scientific forecast: “Severe convection is expected again, specifically over western Manitoba and the Red River Valley. The area of possible severe weather is broad today… …supporting all types of severe weather… …Given this thunderstorm environment, all modes of severe weather are possible with thunderstorms that develop, with up to golf ball sized hail and larger, 90 km/h wind gusts and development of tornadoes possible.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

HIGH RISK: Environment Canada Forecasting Tennis Ball Sized Hail & Risk For Tornadoes (Fri, July 8, 2022)

TODAY (Fri, July 8, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange (C) for the Saskatoon, Regina, and Moose Jaw regions. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90-110km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-6cm hail, lightning, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (A), which includes the Swift Current and Yorkton areas, the risks are 90km/h wind gusts, 3-5cm hail, and lightning.

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

Here’s some of the details from Environment Canada’s tweet: “There's a high risk of severe thunderstorms developing over southern and central SK this afternoon. All forms of severe weather will be possible with these storms. Make sure you have a way to receive the latest alerts & be prepared to act if you’re in the threat area.” And from their scientific forecast: “Thunderstorm threat shifts eastward into Saskatchewan on Friday... …All signs lead to a higher end setup for severe convection…. …Although overall coverage of thunderstorms remains a bit unclear, given the favourable [environment], a categorical upgrade to high (orange) risk has been included for an area of central and southern Saskatchewan… …Primary hazards will be 3-6 cm hail, 110 km/h wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

ALBERTA: Significant Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Tennis Ball Hail & Tornadoes (Thu, July 7, 2022)

TODAY (Thurs, July 7th, 2022): Significant severe weather is expected today across several populated regions of Alberta including Calgary, Red Deer, and perhaps even Edmonton. Damaging wind gusts of 110km/h+, large damaging hail of 3-6cm+, flooding, frequent lightning, and the risk for isolated tornadoes are all on the table with the strongest storms that develop.

Below, Environment Canada has also issued their forecast map for today and it includes a “high” risk area in orange (C) for the Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge and Red Deer regions. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90-110km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-6cm hail, lightning, 50mm rainfall that could cause isolated flooding, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (B), which includes the Medicine Hat areas, the risks are 90km/h wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, and lightning.

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Here’s some of the details from Environment Canada’s scientific forecast: “An active convective day is on tap for Alberta.” “…severe thunderstorms along the foothills that will move east in the evening hours. Supercells will be the primary storm mode with large hail (up to tennis ball size) and strong winds as the main threats. There will also be a chance of an isolated tornado or two in central regions where there is better low level shear available. Some morning cloud cover in the province may delay the timing of or affect some convective initiation, however it shouldn't factor too much into the main initiation along the foothills this afternoon. Upper support will keep thunderstorms going into the overnight hours in north and east regions of province with some severe hail and wind possible.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

HIGH RISK: Environment Canada Forecasting "Tennis Ball" Hail & Risk For Tornadoes (Thu, July 7, 2022)

TODAY (Thu, July 7, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange (C) for the Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge and Red Deer regions. Environment Canada has highlighted a risk for 90-110km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-6cm hail, lightning, 50mm rainfall that could cause isolated flooding, and the risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region (B), which includes the Medicine Hat areas, the risks are 90km/h wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, and lightning.

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

Here’s some of the details from Environment Canada’s scientific forecast: “An active convective day is on tap for Alberta.” “…severe thunderstorms along the foothills that will move east in the evening hours. Supercells will be the primary storm mode with large hail (up to tennis ball size) and strong winds as the main threats. There will also be a chance of an isolated tornado or two in central regions where there is better low level shear available. Some morning cloud cover in the province may delay the timing of or affect some convective initiation, however it shouldn't factor too much into the main initiation along the foothills this afternoon. Upper support will keep thunderstorms going into the overnight hours in north and east regions of province with some severe hail and wind possible.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!