SASKATCHEWAN: *Very* Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk (Tues, July 5, 2022)

Tues, July 5th, 2022: We’re carefully watching a risk for very isolated supercell development this afternoon and evening, focused in southwestern and southern Saskatchewan. By “very isolated”, we mean that the majority of those in our community will not see any storms at all. However, those in the path of storms that do develop with have the potential to experience damaging wind gusts (90-110km/h), large hail (2-5cm), isolated flooding (50mm+), frequent lightning, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with the strongest supercells that develop.

Note: Click on the image to open a larger version that you can zoom.

For comparison, below is Environment Canada’s forecast map that they issued early this morning, which includes a “moderate” risk area in yellow. It mentions a risk for 90km/h damaging wind gusts and 2-4cm hail.

There’s a noticeable difference between our maps and that’s likely because we’ve had the luxury of waiting to see newer model data before creating our forecast. And from what we’re seeing on the latest data, the risk for isolated supercells has increased over time and shifted towards areas like Swift Current and surrounding communities.

Note: Click on the image to open a larger version that you can zoom.

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and as well, our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

Early Morning & Afternoon/Evening Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential (Tue, July 5, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

EARLY MORNING RISK: (Tues, July 5th, 2022): An overnight line or cluster of severe thunderstorms is likely to affect parts of southwestern Ontario and eventually into the Niagara regions (and perhaps GTHA) early this morning. 2am - 11am seems to be the timeframe with areas like Windsor and Essex County seeing storms as early as perhaps even 1am and Niagara seeing storms as late as 11am. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong the wind gusts could get because the overall severe weather environment is fairly tame on our side of the international border. However, we’re dealing with a possible “bow-echo” or perhaps even a strong MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). When storms reach “bow-echo” or even MCS status, they have the ability to create their own environment for severe weather and because of this, even with a fairly weak severe weather environment expected from the models on our side of the border, we could end up seeing some isolated severe wind gusts in deep southwestern Ontario.

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning are the main risks. Regarding the tornado potential, with such a weak environment in Ontario, tornadoes are much more likely south of the border than in our own backyard. Having said that, if this storm does in fact become not only a “bow-echo” but reaches strong MCS status, a brief QLCS tornado isn’t entirely out of the question in Essex County, Chatham-Kent regions, etc. Ultimately, we feel the tornado risk is unlikely so we’re keeping the tornado potential off of our forecast map at this time.

AFTERNOON & EVENING RISK (Tues, July 5th, 2022): There is also some potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the same highlighted areas of southwestern Ontario, into the Niagara regions, and potentially parts of the GTHA. Damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated flooding, and frequent lightning are the main risks. An isolated tornado can also not be entirely ruled out if strong storms develop this afternoon and evening but overall, the risk is quite low and we’re leaning towards unlikely regarding tornado development.

Regardless, if we see any significant wind gusts or rotation on radar for any of these events, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

More details ASAP!

Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Afternoon, Evening & Overnight (Fri, July 1st, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

Today & Tonight (Fri, July 1st, 2022): We’re closely watching for the isolated risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours. By “isolated”, we mean that most of the region will NOT see severe thunderstorms. Additionally, model data seems to be all over the place with every model having a slightly different solution. For example, a few models are suggesting a tornado risk in the Ottawa region and many other models are suggesting there will be no storms there at all. It has been a very difficult forecast, indeed. One consistent part of the forecast has been the risk for severe thunderstorms in southwestern Ontario, potentially this afternoon but more likely this evening.

Southwestern Ontario: The southwest risk will be this afternoon and evening but the overnight should be clear for this part of the region. Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and a risk for flooding. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out in this region as well.

GTHA/Niagara: It’s mainly a late evening and overnight risk for the GTHA and Niagara regions. Most storms should remain non-severe but there is a low risk for isolated damaging wind gusts, lightning, and an isolated flooding risk. Tornadoes seem unlikely for this part of the region in the evening and overnight hours.

Eastern Ontario: Eastern Ontario remains questionable but if storms do show up, they’ll have the chance to get quite severe and a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out. The main risks are damaging wind gusts, large hail, frequent lightning, and flooding. Again, this is IF storms show up. It’s still uncertain at this time.

In general, damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding, and frequent lightning are the main risks. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out with the strongest storms that occur, especially in deep southwestern Ontario and eastern Ontario. However, like we mentioned above, the majority of models are suggesting that eastern Ontario could be missed by the strongest storms and the risk will be entirely in Quebec. And so, we wait and we watch closely!

If we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

Just want to say a huge thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It really makes a huge difference. Thank you and be safe if you’re in the path of today’s storms!

More details ASAP.

MANITOBA: Significant Risk for Isolated Severe Thunderstorms This Evening & Overnight (Wed, June 29, 2022)

TONIGHT & OVERNIGHT (Wed, June 29, 2022): We’re carefully watching a risk for significant severe thunderstorms that will move east into Manitoba from Saskatchewan this evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts, very large hail, flooding, frequent lightning, and a risk for tornadoes will be possible with the strongest storms that develop. There is also some risk for these storms that are develop further south this afternoon and evening in the yellow (2) regions of the map but based on model data, the strongest risk will be somewhere within in the red (4) and orange (3) areas.

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

Environment Canada has also issued a forecast map for the risks today, which includes a “high” risk area in orange that covers much of populated Manitoba, all the way to Winnipeg. It mentions a risk for 100-120km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-5cm hail, and the risk for a tornado.

Environment Canada writes “…There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon over Southern Manitoba, with all modes of severe weather possible...” “...there will be a conditional risk for supercells across Southern Manitoba later today.”

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Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc!

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

WINNIPEG: Environment Canada Forecasting 'High' Risk For Severe Thunderstorms & Tornadoes (Fri, June 24, 2022)

FRIDAY (Fri, June 24, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange that covers Winnipeg, Steinbach, and a large swath of southeastern Manitoba. The forecast mentions a risk for 90-110km/h damaging wind gusts, 3-6cm hail, lightning, 50mm of rainfall, and a risk for tornadoes.

In the yellow region, which includes Brandon, the risk include 90km/h wind gusts, 2-3cm hail, 30mm of rainfall, and lightning.

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

Environment Canada writes “In all, chances are fairly good for more significant severe activity south of the trans-canada corridor and east of about Boissevain as the warm front pushes back northwards through the day… …All hazards are possible in this zone, including hail, wind, heavy rain, and tornado. Moving north through the interlake and west to the Saskatchewan border, potential diminishes but cannot be discounted with the strong dynamics and continued pooling moisture ahead of the front…”

If you’re wondering what time these storms will start, that depends on what area you’re located in and as new data arrives, this timing could continue to change. Mainly an afternoon and evening risk but again, this depends on where exactly you are located. We recommend downloading our free app Instant Weather and checking the minute and hourly products to see what is estimated for your location. The minute and hourly products update every 15 mins to every hour so check back to see if the timing has changed throughout the day. Download it free on Apple or Android. Additionally, for our most reliable alerting system, you can subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc!

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

DAUPHIN: Environment Canada Forecasting 'High' Risk For Severe Thunderstorms & Moderate Risk for Brandon (Thu, June 23, 2022)

TODAY (Thu, June 23, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their updated forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange that covers the Dauphin area and mentions a risk for 90-110km/h damaging wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, lightning, 50-75mm rainfall that will bring an isolated flooding risk, and the risk for a tornado.

In the yellow region, which includes Brandon and parts of western Saskatchewan, the risk include 90km/h wind gusts, 2-3cm hail, and lightning.

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

Environment Canada writes “…supercell development this afternoon through central Saskatchewan into the parklands region of Manitoba which will push eastward through the evening. All potential modes of severe weather are possible with these storms including the risk of a tornado.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc!

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

RED DEER: Environment Canada Forecasting Moderate Risk for Severe Thunderstorms & Tornadoes (Sat, Jul 16, 2022)

TODAY (Sat, July 16, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their updated forecast map for today and this includes a “moderate” risk area in yellow with a risk for 90km/h damaging wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, lightning, and the risk for a tornado.

In their scientific forecast, they wrote “Along the central foohills today severe thunderstorms are likely later this afternoon… …large hail and strong winds are the primary threat with these storms. Near the dry line an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as low level shear in this area is conducive for tornado development.”

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc!

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

Environment Canada has since issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Red Deer and surrounding areas:

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#abstorm 10:25a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED by Environment Canada

DATE: Saturday, July 16, 2022

(Locations listed below description)

Conditions are favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms that may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, damaging hail and heavy rain.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Central Foothills this afternoon and persist into the evening hours.

This watch may be expanded further East as thunderstorms Progress.

Very large hail can damage property, break windows, dent vehicles and cause serious injury. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Lightning kills and injures canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce one or more of the following: Large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to abstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #ABStorm.

end/paspc

NEW:

- Brazeau Co. near Brazeau Dam

- Brazeau Co. near Cynthia and Lodgepole

- Camrose Co. near Bashaw and Meeting Creek

- City of Red Deer

- Clearwater Co. near Caroline and James River Bridge

- Clearwater Co. near Rocky Mtn House and Crimson Lake

- Co. of Paintearth near Halkirk and Big Knife Prov. Park

- Co. of Stettler near Big Valley

- Co. of Stettler near Botha and Gadsby

- Co. of Stettler near Byemoor and Endiang

- Co. of Stettler near Donalda

- Co. of Stettler near Stettler Nevis and Rochon Sands

- Flagstaff Co. near Forestburg and Galahad

- Lacombe Co. near Clive Alix and Mirror

- Lacombe Co. near Eckville

- Lacombe Co. near Lacombe Blackfalds and Bentley

- Mountain View Co. near Carstairs and Stirlingville

- Mountain View Co. near Cremona and Water Valley

- Mountain View Co. near Olds and Didsbury

- Mountain View Co. near Sundre

- O'Chiese 203 Res. and Clearwater Co. near Sunchild Cree Res.

- Ponoka Co. near Ponoka and Maskwacis

- Red Deer Co. near Elnora Lousana and Delburne

- Red Deer Co. near Penhold Innisfail and Bowden

- Red Deer Co. near Pine Lake

- Red Deer Co. near Spruce View and Red Lodge Prov. Park

- Red Deer Co. near Sylvan Lake and Stephansson House

- Rocky View Co. near Airdrie and Crossfield

- Rocky View Co. near Bottrel and Madden

- Rocky View Co. near Cochrane

- Yellowhead Co. near Minnow and Wolf Lakes and Elk River

https://instantweather.ca/2022/07/16/1COpAY-severe-thunderstorm-watch-issued/

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

#abstorm 10:25a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED by Environment Canada

DATE: Saturday, July 16, 2022

(Locations listed below description)

Conditions are favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms that may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, damaging hail and heavy rain.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Central Foothills this afternoon and persist into the evening hours.

This watch may be expanded further East as thunderstorms Progress.

Very large hail can damage property, break windows, dent vehicles and cause serious injury. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Lightning kills and injures canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce one or more of the following: Large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to abstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #ABStorm.

end/paspc

NEW:

- Brazeau Co. near Drayton Valley and Breton

- Co. of Wetaskiwin near Alder Flats and Winfield

- Co. of Wetaskiwin near Pigeon Lake

- Leduc Co. near Calmar and Devon

- Leduc Co. near Warburg Thorsby and Pigeon Lake

- Ponoka Co. near Crestomere

- Ponoka Co. near Rimbey Bluffton and Hoadley

https://instantweather.ca/2022/07/16/cZowaO-severe-thunderstorm-watch-issued/

SASKATOON: Environment Canada Forecasting 'High' Risk For Severe Thunderstorms & a Possible Tornado Risk (Thu, June 23, 2022)

TODAY (Thu, June 23, 2022): Environment Canada has issued their updated forecast map for today and this includes a “high” risk area in orange that has a risk for 90-110km/h damaging wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, lightning, 50-75mm rainfall that will bring an isolated flooding risk, and the risk for a tornado.

In the yellow region, which includes Yorkton and parts of southeastern Saskatchewan, the risk include 90km/h wind gusts, 2-3cm hail, and lightning.

NOTE: CLICK THE IMAGE TO OPEN A LARGE VERSION THAT YOU CAN ZOOM.

Environment Canada writes “…supercell development this afternoon through central Saskatchewan into the parklands region of Manitoba which will push eastward through the evening. All potential modes of severe weather are possible with these storms including the risk of a tornado.”

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. If you don’t have PayPal, you can also subscribe to our Text Messages directly on our website. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc!

Be safe today folks and have a plan if you’re in the path of these severe thunderstorms!

THURSDAY: NTP & Environment Canada Both Forecasting a Tornado Risk for Tomorrow (Thu, June 16, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

The Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) based out of Western University, which is responsible for confirming tornadoes across the country in collaboration with Environment Canada has highlighted a ‘Likely Tornado’ region in parts of eastern Ontario, highlighted in orange which includes the Algonquin Park region in their experimental forecast map. They’ve also highlighted a “Chance Tornado” region, outlined in yellow that extends as far west as Lake Simcoe and parts of the GTA. The NTP writes: “Likely Tornado risk has been identified for portions of Southeastern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec in association with a migrating low pressure system. This is embedded in a broader area of Chance Tornado.”

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Environment Canada has also released a forecast map that mentions the risk for 90-110km/h wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, 30-50mm and “For portions of central Ontario as well as eastern Ontario, a tornado or two is possible.” Here is their full write-up:

Location: Most of southern Ontario.

Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings, break branches off trees and overturn large vehicles. Large hail can damage property and cause injury.

Confidence: Low to medium.

Description: Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts to 110 km/h and large hail to 4 cm are the main hazards expected with these storms. For portions of central Ontario as well as eastern Ontario, a tornado or two is possible. There is timing uncertainty which may affect the locations impacted and hazards as this event draws nearer.

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

And if you have not seen our preliminary forecast map (subject to change), we’ve been discussing the risk for severe weather on Thursday for several days. Tomorrow will have a very potent severe weather environment and models continue to suggest we could see a widespread severe weather event with significant damaging wind gusts 90-120km/h+, damaging hail 2-5cm, flooding, intense lightning, and there is a risk for several strong tornadoes.

We’ve highlighted parts of southwestern Ontario in yellow (2) just incase something pops-up down there but at this point, the main risk is in the red (4) and perhaps orange (3) regions. Storms should begin developing between 11am and 2pm and storms will continue to track to the east into parts of eastern Ontario through the afternoon and into the evening hours as they exit into Quebec and the US.

Of course, timing and locations could change and we continue to work on our final forecast map, which will be released later this evening. However, this event has been trending now for several days and has remained fairly consistent.

Wednesday or Thursday might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

More details ASAP!

THURSDAY: Risk of Significant Severe Thunderstorms & Tornadoes (Thu, June 16, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

THURSDAY (June 16, 2022): After careful consideration and even with several models weakening, we’ve decided there is enough models and data to suggest a significant risk is still possible so we’re going to keep our risk map the same as our preliminary map. As we’ve been discussing for several days, today will have a very potent severe weather environment and several models continue to suggest we could see a widespread severe weather event with significant damaging wind gusts 90-120km/h+, damaging hail 2-5cm, flooding, intense lightning, and there is a risk for several strong tornadoes.

We’ve highlighted parts of southwestern Ontario in yellow (2) just incase something pops-up down there and that seems more possible now that there are storms approaching Essex County from Michigan this morning. They may weaken though so we’ll have to watch closely. The main risk is in the red (4) and perhaps orange (3) regions. Storms should begin developing between 9am and 2pm and storms will continue to track to the east into parts of eastern Ontario through the afternoon and into the evening hours as they exit into Quebec and the US.

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc. We’ll certainly be livestreaming today!

More details ASAP and be safe today, folks! Here’s hoping the weaker models are correct and this forecast is a “bust”.

Overnight & Early Morning Severe Thunderstorm Potential & Discussing Thursday's Significant Severe Weather Risk (Mon, June 13, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

TONIGHT & TOMORROW MORNING (Mon, June 13 - Tue, June 14, 2022): An overnight line or cluster of severe thunderstorms is likely this evening and early Tuesday morning in deep southwestern Ontario most likely starting sometime after 8pm or even later in the evening. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong the wind gusts could get because the overall severe weather environment is basically non-existent on our side of the international border. However, we’re dealing with a possible “bow-echo” or perhaps even a strong MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex). When storms reach “bow-echo” or even MCV status, they have the ability to create their own environment for severe weather and because of this, even with a non-existent severe weather environment expected from the models on our side of the border, we could end up seeing some isolated severe wind gusts in deep southwestern Ontario.

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning are the main risks. Regarding the tornado potential, with such a weak environment in Ontario, tornadoes are much more likely south of the border than in our own backyard. Having said that, if this storm does in fact become not only a “bow-echo” but reaches strong MCV status, a brief QLCS tornado isn’t entirely out of the question in Essex County, Chatham-Kent regions, etc. Ultimately, we feel the tornado risk is unlikely so we’re keeping the tornado potential off of our forecast map at this time.

THURSDAY: (Thursday, June 16th): We’ve been closely watching models for more than a week as they’ve consistently demonstrated the potential for an enhanced or potentially significant severe weather environment on Wednesday and Thursday. So far, it seems like there are no organized storms expected on Wednesday and this is a good thing because the environment is extremely volatile. As long as no storms show up on Wednesday, there should be no severe weather risk. If a storm shows up out of nowhere on Wednesday, then we’ve got issues (this seems unlikely, so far). However, Thursday looks quite impressive on the models and we could be dealing with a widespread squall line with the main risks looking like they’ll be east of Lake Simcoe into Eastern Ontario. There is also the potential for severe storms in the GTHA and Niagara. However, at this point, southwestern Ontario doesn’t seem to have a risk for storm development. Having said this, we’re 4 days out so this could shift. We’ll be watching very closely for this risk and trying to pinpoint it over the next few days.

As always, if we see any significant wind gusts or rotation on radar for any of these events, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

More details ASAP!

Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Possible This Afternoon & Evening (Wed, June 22, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

TODAY (Wed, June 22, 2022): Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of our region with a specific emphasis on eastern Ontario. By “isolated”, we mean that almost everyone highlighted in yellow will not see a severe thunderstorm today. The strongest storms could briefly produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and frequent lightning. There is the potential for quite a bit of flooding, especially in isolated parts of eastern Ontario, perhaps near Bancroft or Pembroke regions. If storms develop in the GTA, flooding is also the main risk. The overall tornado potential is quite marginal (low) but there is a bit of a more pronounced risk once again in areas like Pembroke, Petawawa, Renfrew and locations that border Quebec. We’ve highlighted this low tornado risk with the dotted region and outlined in blue dashes.

As always, if we see any rotation on radar for any of these events, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

More details ASAP!

Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential This Afternoon & Evening (Mon, June 6, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southwestern Ontario and there is a hint of potential in the Niagara regions and the west side of the GTHA. Most storms will remain sub-severe (below severe thresholds). However, there is a chance that they could briefly produce damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. Overall, the tornado potential is marginal (low) but there is a hint of tornado potential with storms that may move northeast off of Lake Huron, perhaps near the Goderich or Kincardine areas and also some risk in deep southwestern Ontario. We’ve highlighted this with the dotted region and the letter T.

Monday and Tuesday will bring quite a bit of rainfall across the region and there is a marginal (low) risk for isolated flooding in any areas that receive numerous storms.

Environment Canada has also mentioned that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in their updated forecast map, which they often post to Twitter:

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

As always, if we see any rotation on radar we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

More details ASAP.

Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential This Afternoon & Evening (Mon, June 6, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southwestern Ontario and there is a hint of potential in the Niagara regions and the west side of the GTHA. Most storms will remain sub-severe (below severe thresholds). However, there is a chance that they could briefly produce damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. Overall, the tornado potential is marginal (low) but there is a hint of tornado potential with storms that may move northeast off of Lake Huron, perhaps near the Goderich or Kincardine areas and also some risk in deep southwestern Ontario. We’ve highlighted this with the dotted region and the letter T.

Monday and Tuesday will bring quite a bit of rainfall across the region and there is a marginal (low) risk for isolated flooding in any areas that receive numerous storms.

Environment Canada has also mentioned that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in their updated forecast map, which they often post to Twitter:

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

As always, if we see any rotation on radar we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

More details ASAP.

Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk: Overnight, Morning, Afternoon, and Evening (Wed, Jun 1, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this Wednesday. By “Isolated” we mean that many areas could end up seeing no storms at all. However, even though the storms should remain isolated, many in our community will end up seeing storm activity as there could be quite a few of them, several rounds, and likely in populated areas.

Overnight & Early morning (12am - 8am): Overnight and early morning storms should begin moving east from Lake Huron near Kincardine and tracking towards Georgian Bay, Barrie, etc. We’ll also see storms moving east from Georgian Bay, starting around midnight or so and tracking into Muskoka and parts of eastern Ontario. These overnight and early morning storms have a marginal (low) risk for severe weather but they could bring with them isolated flooding, strong (potentially damaging) wind gusts, hail, and lightning. Tornado activity with these overnight and early morning storms is unlikely but we’ll be watching them, nonetheless as they may end up showing rotation on radar.

Morning: (8am - 11am): The morning storms will have a stronger environment to work with as they track through parts of southwestern and central Ontario, perhaps towards the GTA regions and parts of eastern Ontario. Damaging wind gusts, hail, flooding and lightning are the main risks. Tornado activity with these morning storms is also unlikely. Although, slightly less unlikely than the overnight and early morning storms.

Afternoon & evening: (12pm - 8pm): The afternoon storms are the main concern for tomorrow and we should see these develop around the noon hour or slightly thereafter. Multiple isolated supercells (rotating storms) are possible and at this point, we’re seeing a highlighted risk in southwestern, central, golden horseshoe (GTHA), and parts of eastern Ontario. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, isolated flooding, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. The dotted “tornado risk” area on the map is specifically showing where the afternoon and evening storms should develop but we’d like to clarify that an isolated tornado outside of this highlight area isn’t entirely out of the question with the morning storms even though their overall tornado potential seems less likely than the afternoon storms.

If we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc. Having said that, Facebook notifications are usually very slow so please do not depend on them being timely.

And once again, a huge thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It makes all of this possible and helps us continue to achieve our goal of raising awareness about tornadoes and severe weather. Thank you!

More details ASAP.

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO: Significant Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Evening & Overnight (Mon, May 30, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

We’re dealing with an ongoing significant severe weather outbreak in the US that will eventually impact parts of northwestern Ontario this evening and into the overnight hours. Isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail, flooding and frequent lightning are all possible. Tornadoes will be especially possible in the red area of the map, highlighted with the number 4 and the dotted region, close to the international border. Fort Frances and surrounding areas may have the strongest potential for significant severe weather and dangerous tornado activity. Environment Canada has already issued a Tornado Watch for regions like Fort Frances and areas close to the international border.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather in parts of northeastern Ontario, close to the Quebec border but it’s a bit uncertain at this point in time.

If we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

Just want to say a huge thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It really makes a huge difference.

More details ASAP.

MANITOBA: Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Afternoon and Evening (Sunday, May 29, 2022)

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We’re carefully watching for the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Manitoba. There is some uncertainty as to where these storms will first develop and how late they may arrive. However, the latest model data is suggesting the strongest isolated storms will begin in the west part of the risk region this afternoon and track east throughout the evening. The main risks will be damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. There is also the potential for tornado activity, especially close to the international border. However, the tornado risk may have the potential to extend further north as highlighted by the dotted orange areas, depending on where the strongest storms develop and how earlier they arrive. The earlier they arrive, the better chance they have of being severe and potentially producing isolated tornadoes, etc.

Environment Canada has also issued a forecast map for these risks:

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

In their forecast, Environment Canada writes: “… potential for severe thunderstorm development. Large hail, heavy rain, and the slight chance for a tornado are all possible. However, a strong mid level capping inversion may hinder thunderstorm development until much later in the evening, once the cap erodes. As such, confidence is low for any organized storm development, but any storms that do pop up will likely be severe in nature.”

As always, if we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

If you’re on Facebook, please join our sister group Manitoba Storm Reports to share your reports with not only us but members of the community.

Long story slightly longer, thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It really makes a huge difference!

More details ASAP.

Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Possible This Afternoon & This Evening (Thursday, May 26, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southwestern, central, and perhaps eastern Ontario. Most storms will remain sub-severe (below severe thresholds). However, there is a chance that they could briefly produce damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. Tornado activity seems unlikely but there is a bit of potential for rotation with these storms so perhaps we could see a funnel cloud report or a brief landspout tornado.

If we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

Just want to say a huge thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It really makes a huge difference. And our most heartfelt thoughts and condolences remain with those who were affected by Saturday’s devastating derecho storm and embedded tornadoes.

More details ASAP.

Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Possible This Afternoon & This Evening (Thursday, May 26, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southwestern, central, and perhaps eastern Ontario. Most storms will remain sub-severe (below severe thresholds). However, there is a chance that they could briefly produce damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. Tornado activity seems unlikely but there is a bit of potential for rotation with these storms so perhaps we could see a funnel cloud report or a brief landspout tornado.

If we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

Just want to say a huge thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It really makes a huge difference. And our most heartfelt thoughts and condolences remain with those who were affected by Saturday’s devastating derecho storm and embedded tornadoes.

More details ASAP.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Saturday, May 21st, 2022

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

Another severe thunderstorm risk for this morning, afternoon and perhaps this evening in parts of eastern Ontario, especially in the Cornwall areas and close to the Quebec border.

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning are the main risks. We’ve also highlighted an area with the blue dashed outline + dotted region where there is a marginal (low) chance of tornado activity. The chance gets stronger the closer to Quebec you are, especially in far eastern Ontario.

If we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

Just want to say a huge thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It really makes a huge difference. Thank you and be safe if you’re in the path of today’s storms!

More details ASAP.