'Ice Day' Forecast: First School Bus Cancellations of the Season Possible on Tuesday in Central & Eastern Ontario
/
NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE
The first significant blast of winter weather has arrived in Southern Ontario, bringing freezing rain and the possibility of the season's first school bus cancellations.
Freezing rain is expected to develop late Monday night across Central and Eastern Ontario, persisting into the early hours of Tuesday morning. While significant ice accumulation is not anticipated, even a light glaze of ice could create slippery road conditions in some areas.
Environment Canada has issued freezing rain warnings for areas stretching from Muskoka through Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley. These warnings are expected to remain in place until temperatures climb above freezing later Tuesday morning. As a result, some school boards in the affected regions may choose to cancel buses for Tuesday morning.
Areas Most Likely to See Bus Cancellations
The highest likelihood of cancellations exists in rural school boards that are historically more cautious during severe winter weather.
North Hastings, North Lennox & Addington (Tri-Board), and Renfrew (Madawaska area): These areas have a 90% chance of bus cancellations, given their sensitivity to icy conditions and their placement in the freezing rain warning zone.
Renfrew, Tri-Board (North Frontenac), TLDSB (Haliburton), and NNDSB (East Parry Sound): These regions are slightly less likely to see cancellations, with a 75% chance of buses being pulled off the roads.
Moderate Risk Regions
TLDSB (Muskoka), NNDSB (Parry Sound & North Bay), and UCDSB: These areas have a 50/50 chance of cancellations. While the freezing rain threat is lower here, the presence of a warning may still lead to precautionary measures to cancel school buses.
Lower Risk Regions
Southern Tri-Board, KPR (Peterborough), and TLDSB (Kawartha): These areas have a 25% chance of cancellations, as the freezing rain is expected to remain mostly north and east of these regions.
City of Ottawa: Urban school boards like Ottawa are less likely to see cancellations due to the limited ice accumulation forecasted in city areas. We have given them a 25% chance.
No Cancellations Expected Outside Warning Zones
For the rest of Southern Ontario, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, with only rain forecasted overnight. As such, weather-related school bus cancellations are unlikely in these regions.
Stay tuned for updates on school board decisions early Tuesday morning, and take care if you're traveling in areas impacted by freezing rain!
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
