It’s a Christmas Miracle! A White Christmas Is Likely for Most of Ontario & Quebec This Year
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The month of December has truly delivered a winter wonderland for much of Ontario and Quebec, especially in the snowbelt regions of Ontario, which have seen significant snowfall from several rounds of snow squalls in recent weeks.
With Christmas just around the corner—less than five days away—the question on everyone’s mind is whether we’ll wake up to a White Christmas or a Green Christmas this year.
For clarity, Environment Canada defines a "White Christmas" as having at least 2 cm of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. Christmas morning. Unfortunately, in recent years, Southern Ontario’s holiday season has often been marked by the Grinch’s meddling, with last year seeing widespread "Grinchmas" conditions.
Currently, the snowpack across much of the region is quite substantial, particularly east of Georgian Bay, into Northern Ontario, and across Quebec. The good news for these areas is that the forecast suggests little to no rain or mild temperatures between now and Christmas, making a White Christmas virtually guaranteed.
However, the story is quite different for southern portions of the region, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. These areas haven’t seen much in the way of significant snowfall accumulation this month, and the forecast includes a stretch of above-freezing temperatures on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
As a result, the odds of a White Christmas here depend entirely on whether snow can accumulate between now and Christmas morning.
Thankfully, hope isn’t entirely lost! A developing system is expected to move into Southern Ontario early Monday, continuing into Christmas Eve on Tuesday. Recent model updates have been promising for snow lovers, trending toward a stronger system that brings more widespread snowfall.
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Current projections suggest this system could deliver 10–20 cm of snow across Central and Eastern Ontario. However, for those along the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shorelines, including parts of the GTA and Niagara Region, snowfall amounts may be significantly lower due to temperatures rising above freezing during the day on Monday. This could lead to melting or even a mix with rain, reducing accumulation to just a few centimeters.
With temperatures hovering slightly above freezing through Christmas Eve, it’s uncertain whether any snow from this system will survive until Christmas morning in these areas.
WHITE CHRISTMAS REGIONAL BREAKDOWN
Central Ontario, including Muskoka, Tobermory, Bancroft, and Algonquin Park, has the best odds in Southern Ontario. These areas already boast a healthy snowpack from earlier systems and lake-effect snow, and Monday’s storm will only add to it. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing, ensuring the snow sticks around. The chance of a White Christmas here is over 90%.
Eastern Ontario and areas near Lake Huron, including the Ottawa Valley and regions around Lake Simcoe, have a slightly lower chance at 75%. Eastern Ontario currently has little snow on the ground, but Monday’s system is expected to change that. Lake Huron’s shoreline, while already snow-covered, will face a brief warm-up Monday into Christmas Eve. While the snow is likely to hold, it isn’t guaranteed.
For areas like Sarnia, London, Kitchener, Guelph, and Belleville, the chance of a White Christmas is more uncertain at 50%. Everything depends on how much snow Monday’s system delivers and whether it can survive the milder temperatures leading into Christmas morning.
In the GTA, including Hamilton and northern parts of Niagara, the odds of a White Christmas are slim with a 25% chance. Without an existing snowpack and with limited accumulation expected from Monday’s storm, above-freezing temperatures are likely to melt any snow that does fall. However, if the storm overperforms or the warm-up is less intense, we could see a last-minute boost in probabilities.
Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, is the least likely to see a White Christmas, with just a 10% chance. Monday’s system is forecast to bring minimal snow, and the prolonged warm-up will likely ensure a Green Christmas here.
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Northern Ontario offers little drama in this forecast. With widespread snow on the ground and no significant warm-up in sight, the region enjoys a 90%+ chance of a White Christmas across the board.
Much of Quebec also looks set for a picturesque holiday. The exception is the Montreal area, which currently has limited snow on the ground. However, like Eastern Ontario, this should change once Monday’s system moves through.
This forecast remains preliminary and will be updated as we approach Christmas. Our final White Christmas forecast, set to be released on Christmas Eve, will factor in Monday’s storm and provide a clearer picture. If the snow cooperates, expect to see more 90%+ zones on the map. Stay tuned, and let’s hope for a festive, snow-covered holiday!
