A White Christmas is in the Forecast for Most of the Prairies, Odds are Not Good in Southern Alberta
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The second half of November and all through December have been marked by a series of snowstorms and periods of frigid temperatures across the Prairies. With Christmas only four days away, the odds of a White Christmas are becoming clearer.
According to Environment Canada, in order for an area to have a White Christmas, there needs to be at least 2cm of snow on the ground as of 7am on Christmas Day. This is typically an easy threshold to cross in the Prairies and it appears that this year will be no different for most, but not all.
Currently, the snowpack is considerable across the Prairies, at least 10cm deep across a majority of the regions and large swatch where the snow is over 20cm in all three provinces. There are a few pockets where this is the exception, particularly in Southern Alberta where warm temperatures early in the week have resulting in little to no snow on the ground. Looking ahead over the next few days, some warmer air and a mix of rain and freezing rain will decrease the likelihood of a White Christmas for some.
Modelled Snow depths as of Saturday, December 21st at 6am CT.
Manitoba
Northern Manitoba may see some scattered flurries this evening and overnight and again Tuesday morning. Otherwise, there is no other fresh snow expected between now and Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain below freezing across the province until Christmas morning so no melting of the existing snow is expected. As a result, all of Manitoba can expect a White Christmas.
Saskatchewan
Like Manitoba, Northern Saskatchewan may see scattered flurries over the next few days, but no significant snowfall is expected. There is, however, a threat to White Christmas chances in Southwest Saskatchewan.
Early Sunday morning, temperatures in this area will climb to above freezing and will stay there throughout most of the day. Not only will this melt some of the limited snowpack in the area, a mix of rain and freezing rain will also result in melting. Temperatures are expected to rise once again on both Monday and Tuesday. With no additional snow in the forecast, a White Christmas can not be guaranteed in this area, but it is not completely ruled out.
Alberta
The chances for a White Christmas will vary across Alberta. A large part of Southern Alberta already has less than 5cm of snow on the ground and daily highs in the single digits between now and Christmas significantly impact the chances of a White Christmas here. The relative warmth will also stretch northward, just east of the Rockies over the coming days, but the greater snowpack and temperatures only reaching a degree or two above freezing will keep the hopes for a White Christmas alive.
The only fresh snow in the forecast for the province will be isolated to the Mountains and far Northern Alberta. There’s the chance for some rain to cross through Southern Alberta overnight and through Sunday morning which will further hinder the likelihood of a White Christmas in the area.
Please keep in mind that this is just a preliminary forecast and is based on current data. The forecast will be updated over the coming days, with the final forecast set to be posted on Christmas Eve. Make sure to stay tuned!
