January 24, 2026

25-40cm of Snow Possible Around Toronto on Sunday as Widespread Snowstorm Threatens Travel Across Southern Ontario

January 24, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Enter to Win a 7-Night Cruise for 2 with Celebrity Cruises, Including Airfare - Select Patricia Bootsma as your travel consultant

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

An expansive and high-impact winter storm is currently bearing down on a large portion of the United States this weekend, bringing widespread heavy snowfall and areas of crippling freezing rain to parts of the Southeast and the Northeastern US. This is a powerful and dynamic system that is already causing significant concern south of the border, with dangerous travel conditions, power outage risks and major disruptions expected in many states.

Southern Ontario will not be spared entirely from this storm. While we will avoid the worst of the freezing rain and blizzard conditions seen farther south, we are firmly in line to be clipped by the northwestern edge of this system on Sunday. That will be enough to deliver a widespread and impactful snowstorm across much of the region.

The axis of heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from near the Lake Erie shoreline, through the Golden Horseshoe, and eastward into Eastern Ontario. Travel impacts are likely to be significant, especially as the most intense snowfall rates arrive during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, a time when roads are typically busiest. Although thankfully on the weekend, which should help keep traffic volumes lower compared to a workday.

For many areas, general snowfall totals are expected to range between 15 and 25cm. This includes a broad zone covering Windsor, London, Kitchener, Kingston, Peterborough and Ottawa. However, snowfall amounts will not be uniform, and some regions will see considerably higher totals due to lake enhancement and mesoscale banding features.

The greatest concern continues to focus on the Golden Horseshoe and the Lake Ontario shoreline, where lake enhancement is expected to play a major role. In these areas, snowfall totals are likely to exceed 25cm, with some locations pushing well beyond that threshold by the time the snow tapers off late Sunday night.

There is growing confidence in the development of a persistent and narrow band of lake effect snow becoming embedded within the broader system snowfall. This feature is expected to impact parts of the Greater Toronto Area and the northwestern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. When lake effect bands become embedded within a large-scale storm like this, snowfall rates can intensify dramatically over a very small area.

This creates an unusual and high-risk setup where the most impressive snowfall totals of the entire event may end up falling over the most densely populated portion of Southern Ontario. In some neighbourhoods, it cannot be ruled out that total snowfall may approach or even exceed 40cm.

If that scenario materializes, it would place this event among the more significant snowfall events Toronto has seen in recent memory. At the same time, it is important to stress that totals will vary sharply over short distances depending on where this narrow band ultimately sets up.

Snow falling at this intensity, especially over a relatively short 12 to 16-hour window, is likely to cause major issues across the urban core of the Greater Toronto Area. Rapid accumulation during the afternoon and evening could overwhelm road crews, making it difficult to keep up with clearing operations.

It is very possible that some major routes could see closures if conditions deteriorate quickly, including portions of the DVP, the Gardiner Expressway and sections of the 400 series highways.

Although the snow is expected to gradually wind down overnight into Monday morning, impacts will linger well beyond the end of the snowfall. The Monday morning commute is likely to be heavily affected, with many roads still uncleared or partially cleared. This increases the likelihood of school bus cancellations and even potential school closures across the hardest hit regions.

The timeline for this storm begins during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Initial bands of light to moderate snow are expected to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario first.

Areas like Windsor and Chatham should see snow begin around 2 to 4 AM, with coverage and intensity increasing steadily through the morning hours.

As the morning progresses, the snow shield will expand northeastward, reaching London, Hamilton, Kitchener and the Niagara region by late morning. Snow may start off relatively light in these areas, but conditions will deteriorate as snowfall rates increase heading into the afternoon.

At the same time, a notable lake-driven feature is expected to develop over Lake Ontario. This feature may look like a “snow snake,” a narrow but intense band of lake effect snow that forms when cold Arctic air interacts with an unusual southeasterly wind flow. This is not a common setup, as southeasterly flows are typically associated with warmer air rather than when cold air is pushed in from the north or west.

This band is expected to first impact the northwestern shoreline of Lake Ontario, including portions of the Highway 401 corridor between Cobourg and Oshawa. Heavy snowfall rates are possible within this band even before the broader system snow arrives. In a short period of time, this could lay down 10 to 20cm of snow before noon in some areas.

By early afternoon, snowfall will ramp up significantly across much of Southern Ontario. More widespread, steady and heavy snow will overspread the Lake Erie shoreline and the Golden Horseshoe. The outer edge of the precipitation shield should reach areas from Barrie through Peterborough and into Kingston between roughly 11 AM and 1 PM.

One of the most critical elements of this forecast is how the system snow interacts with the lake effect band. As the main storm moves in, it is expected to absorb this lake effect band, but the band does not disappear. Instead, it continues as an embedded zone of enhanced snowfall, focused primarily on the eastern GTA, including Oshawa, Ajax and Whitby during the early afternoon. These areas will benefit from an added moisture source, resulting in higher snowfall rates than surrounding regions.

**Hourly snowfall rates (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Snow will continue spreading northeast through the afternoon, eventually reaching Central Ontario and the Ottawa Valley by the mid to late afternoon. Similar to elsewhere, snow may begin on the lighter side but is expected to intensify into the evening hours for Eastern Ontario.

High-resolution model guidance continues to highlight an area of particularly intense snowfall rates across the Golden Horseshoe, driven by lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour appear likely, with localized pockets potentially exceeding that where the embedded band becomes stationary.

The most intense part of this band may slowly drift westward into the Toronto area and linger for several hours during the late afternoon and early evening.

This is the window when snowfall could accumulate extremely quickly, potentially reaching 5cm per hour or more at times. Because this band will be very narrow, snowfall totals will vary dramatically from one neighborhood to the next. It is entirely possible for one part of the GTA to receive double the snowfall of another area only a few kilometres away.

Wind will also play a role, with gusts occasionally reaching 40 to 60 km/h. This will lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. While widespread blizzard conditions are not currently expected, localized blizzard-like conditions with near zero visibility cannot be ruled out under the heaviest snowfall bands.

As the storm system pushes east into New England and Atlantic Canada, snowfall will begin to taper off across Southwestern Ontario during the evening hours. However, Eastern Ontario will just be reaching its peak snowfall during this time, with steady snow continuing through the evening from Kingston to Ottawa.

Across the Golden Horseshoe, conditions may actually worsen heading into Sunday evening as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This wind shift is expected to further intensify the lake effect band, allowing it to slide westward from Toronto into Mississauga, Oakville and eventually Burlington through the evening. Travel between Toronto and Hamilton during this period could be extremely difficult, and non-essential travel should be avoided if possible.

As Sunday night turns into early Monday morning, the bulk of the snowfall will become focused over Eastern Ontario as it winds down across most other parts of Southern Ontario.

The main exception will be the persistent lake effect band off Lake Ontario, which will now be free from the larger system. This band is expected to drift southward into Hamilton and potentially the northern Niagara region, including areas like Grimsby and St. Catharines, and could linger into the mid-morning hours on Monday.

For Eastern Ontario, snowfall should come to an end by around sunrise on Monday. However, the impacts will be far from over, as the amount of snow on the ground will almost certainly bring the Monday morning commute to a crawl.

When all is said and done, snowfall totals by Monday morning will be highly variable, especially in areas affected by lake enhancement. A widespread zone along the Lake Ontario shoreline through the Golden Horseshoe is expected to see 25 to 40cm of snow.

This includes Picton, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls. Within this zone, the highest totals near 35 to 40cm will be very localized where the most intense lake enhancement persists, while many areas will fall closer to the 25 to 30cm range.

A smaller and more targeted corridor, including Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga and Oakville, has the potential to exceed 40cm if the lake effect band becomes particularly intense or remains stationary for several hours. This will lead to dramatic differences in snowfall even between nearby neighbourhoods.

A broader area stretching from Windsor through London, Peterborough and into the Ottawa Valley can expect snowfall in the 15 to 25cm range. Some localized areas, particularly along the St. Lawrence River in Eastern Ontario, could see amounts closer to 30cm.

Snowfall totals will drop off farther northwest across Southern Ontario. Areas such as Sarnia, Goderich, Collingwood, Barrie, Orillia, Bancroft and Renfrew are currently forecast to receive 10 to 15cm. This zone remains highly sensitive to the exact northern edge of the precipitation shield, meaning totals could end up lower if the storm trends south, or higher if snowfall becomes more widespread than expected.

Finally, less than 10cm of snow is expected across Grey Bruce, Muskoka and Algonquin Park. For these regions, this will be a welcome break after enduring near continuous snow squall activity over the past week.

We know the real question on everyone’s mind is not how much snow is coming, but how many bags of storm chips are required to survive it. We’ve got you covered with our very non-scientific ‘storm chips’ forecast!

The heaviest snow is expected to focus along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario and extend into parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Oshawa, Vaughan, Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville and Burlington.

With widespread totals expected in the 20-40cm range, this is the kind of snowfall that doesn’t disappear overnight. Dense urban areas tend to grind to a halt during storms like this, and snow removal can take several days before things feel remotely normal again.

For that reason, we’ve officially dusted off the pink crayons. If you’re in this zone, we recommend a strong 4-5 bags of storm chips and about 15-20 cups of your favourite storm beverages to get you through the digging out phase.

Elsewhere along the Lake Ontario shoreline, from Kingston through Peterborough and around the Golden Horseshoe into Kitchener, Hamilton and the Niagara Region, impacts should still be solid. This zone is looking at a respectable 3-4 bags of storm chips and roughly 10-15 cups of storm drinks to ride out the storm in comfort.

Across the rest of Eastern Ontario into Deep Southwestern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, Barrie, and stretching down toward Windsor and London, snowfall totals in the 10-20cm range are expected.

While not extreme, this amount of snow will still make travel messy on Sunday and likely keep you home for the day. A sensible 2-3 bags of storm chips and 5-10 cups of storm drinks should do the trick here.

Further north into Central Ontario and Grey-Bruce, snowfall amounts look lighter, generally under 10cm. Considering what these areas have already endured from relentless snow squalls over the past week, this is almost a break. Still, it never hurts to be prepared, so we suggest 1-2 bags of storm chips and 2-5 storm drinks, just in case.

January 24, 2026

Another Major Snowstorm Targets the GTA and Parts of Southern Ontario on Sunday With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

January 24, 2026/ Brennen Perry

It has been just over a week since a high-impact snowstorm swept across Southern Ontario last Thursday, bringing widespread disruption and heavy snowfall to many communities. The hardest hit areas were centred on the Greater Toronto Area, where some neighbourhoods picked up more than 30 cm of snow in a relatively short period of time. That storm caused major travel issues, school disruptions, and a lengthy cleanup that is still fresh in many people’s minds.

That’s why the forecast for this upcoming weekend may sound eerily familiar. Another snowstorm is increasingly likely to impact many of the same areas that were hit last week. While this system will not be identical, there is once again the potential for significant snowfall, especially across the Golden Horseshoe. Some parts of the region could be digging out from over 20 cm of snow by Monday morning, with localized higher amounts still very much on the table.

A large and powerful winter storm that is expected to have a widespread impact across much of the Central and Eastern United States will begin pushing northward toward Southern Ontario on Sunday. This is a major system that will be producing destructive ice storm conditions in some areas and blizzard conditions in others south of the border. Thankfully, we will not see the worst of this storm locally.

Instead, Southern Ontario is expected to be brushed by the northeastern fringe of this expansive system. While that may sound like a glancing blow, it is more than enough to cause problems here. When combined with lake enhancement off Lake Ontario, this setup has the potential to produce a disruptive and high-impact snowstorm for the Golden Horseshoe and parts of Eastern Ontario.

One of the biggest challenges with this forecast continues to be how far northwest the main bands of precipitation are able to push. Weather models are still not fully aligned on the exact placement of the heaviest snow, and that will make a big difference in who sees the highest totals. Central and Southwestern Ontario currently sit right on the edge of the storm’s reach.

If the system tracks a bit further east, some of these areas could see very little snow at all. On the other hand, a slightly more western track would bring accumulating snow much deeper into Southern Ontario and significantly expand the impact zone.

Confidence is much higher for areas closer to and east of the Lake Ontario shoreline. Regardless of the exact track, these regions are expected to see accumulating snow.

What remains uncertain is just how high the totals will climb. In a lower impact scenario, snowfall amounts would generally range from 20 to 25 cm around the GTA, with 10 to 20 cm extending eastward along the Lake Ontario shoreline into Eastern Ontario.

In a higher-end or overperforming scenario, localized pockets could approach 40 cm of snow, especially in and around the Toronto area. In that case, totals over 20 cm could extend across much of Eastern Ontario, parts of Central Ontario, and even into portions of Deep Southwestern Ontario. At this point, both outcomes remain plausible depending on how the system evolves.

Regardless of the final totals, this storm is expected to produce hazardous travel conditions, especially as snowfall intensity ramps up Sunday afternoon and evening. Roads are likely to become snow-covered and slippery, with visibility reduced at times during heavier bursts of snow. Conditions should slowly begin to improve overnight into Monday morning, but the impacts will not end there.

Given the amount of snow that is likely to fall, there is a high probability of significant impacts to the Monday morning commute. This includes the strong potential for school bus cancellations and school closures across parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario. Even if snowfall tapers off before daybreak, cleanup operations will still be ongoing during the morning hours.

While we will have a more detailed look at timing in our final forecast late Saturday, current data suggests snowfall will begin to spread over parts of Southern Ontario late Sunday morning. Steady snow is expected to reach Deep Southwestern Ontario around 8 to 9 AM, gradually expanding northeastward through the day.

At the same time, there are growing signals that a lake effect snow band may develop over Lake Ontario and extend into areas north and northwest of the lake. This band could stretch from Belleville along the Highway 401 corridor, through Toronto, and westward toward Hamilton. This is an important detail, as lake enhancement could significantly boost snowfall totals in a narrow corridor.

High-resolution models are just beginning to come into range, but early indications show elevated snowfall totals along this corridor. In some cases, 10 to 20 cm of snow could fall even before the main system snow arrives later Sunday afternoon and evening. This would set the stage for very high totals once the storm fully ramps up.

The steadier, more widespread snow associated with the main system will continue to spread northeastward during the afternoon. Snowfall intensity is expected to increase through the Golden Horseshoe and into Central and Eastern Ontario as the evening progresses, with the heaviest rates focused near Lake Ontario.

Models are also hinting at the possibility of an embedded lake effect streamer developing and narrowly extending into parts of the western GTA. This includes Downtown Toronto and potentially Mississauga. If this band materializes, it would likely develop sometime during the afternoon and intensify into the evening hours.

The exact placement of this feature is highly uncertain and could shift around considerably. Because of that, snowfall totals could vary dramatically over relatively short distances. Where this band sets up, snowfall rates could double or even triple compared to surrounding areas, leading to very rapid accumulation in a short amount of time.

As the system begins to wind down overnight, this pocket of lake enhancement is expected to gradually weaken. Current model guidance suggests it may slowly sink southward through areas like Oakville, Burlington, and Hamilton as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This could prolong snowfall in those communities even as conditions improve elsewhere.

Most areas should see the snow taper off by around sunrise on Monday. However, parts of Eastern Ontario may see steadier snow linger through the morning hours before finally ending by the afternoon. Even after the snow stops, cleanup and travel impacts will continue for much of the day.

When it comes to potential snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be a storm with significant variability, even across small areas. The lake enhancement component means there will likely be a narrow corridor somewhere through the GTA where totals approach or even exceed 40 cm, while nearby locations receive much less.

At this time, the highest totals are expected along the northern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. Snowfall amounts in this zone are forecast to range from 20 to 40 cm. This includes areas such as Picton, Belleville, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga, Oakville, and Burlington.

Somewhere between Oshawa and Oakville, localized pockets near 40 cm appear most likely, which seems to be likely focused on parts of Toronto. Outside of those hotspots, much of this corridor is expected to fall into the 20 to 30 cm range. There is still a chance that totals could exceed 40 cm if the lake enhancement band is stronger or lingers longer than expected, though recent model runs suggest less overperforming potential than earlier data.

The rest of the Golden Horseshoe and much of Eastern Ontario away from the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline can expect generally 15 to 30 cm of snow from this storm. This includes places like Niagara, Brantford, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville, Newmarket, Peterborough, Kingston, Brockville, Ottawa, and Cornwall. We expect to tighten this range further once the storm track becomes clearer.

For Southwestern Ontario into parts of Central Ontario, current projections suggest totals in the 10 to 20 cm range. However, there is expected to be a very sharp cutoff on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield. This means snowfall totals could drop off quickly over short distances.

If the system does not extend far enough northwest, areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could end up being mostly clipped by the snow, with minimal accumulation. In contrast, Deep Southwestern Ontario including Windsor, Chatham, and London appears most likely to see at least 10 cm of snow regardless of the final track.

Overall confidence in this forecast is fairly high thanks to strong agreement among most weather models. That said, the storm is still more than 24 hours away. This forecast remains preliminary and could change if there is a last minute shift in the data. While a major surprise is unlikely given the current consistency, it cannot be completely ruled out.

Our final forecast will be published Saturday evening once the latest data is available. At that time, we will provide a more precise snowfall range and a detailed timing breakdown so you have a clearer picture of what to expect throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday.

January 23, 2026

Potentially Coldest Night in Years Ahead for Southern Ontario as Arctic Air Sends Wind Chills Below -30°C

January 23, 2026/ Brennen Perry

An intense blast of Arctic air is set to surge across Ontario late Friday and into Saturday morning, bringing what could be the coldest conditions many areas have experienced in years. While snow squalls continue to dominate the forecast in parts of the province, the extreme cold arriving behind them will quickly become the more dangerous and widespread threat.

According to the latest data, wind chills will plunge sharply on Friday evening. Much of Southern Ontario will see overnight wind chills fall into the -30°C range, with several regions dropping into the -35°C to -40°C range by early Saturday morning. These values are cold enough to cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

The coldest conditions are expected across Central and Northern Ontario, where the core of this Arctic air mass settles in. Wind chills near or below -40°C are likely across much of the north, including areas from Sudbury through North Bay. Some localized spots could briefly dip closer to -45°C.

Across cottage country and central sections of the province, including Muskoka, Parry Sound, Simcoe County, and Peterborough, wind chills between -35°C and -40°C look increasingly likely. This region has already been dealing with persistent snowfall, which will only add to the risk as stranded motorists or anyone caught outdoors for extended periods could be exposed to life-threatening cold very quickly.

The forecast shows much of the Greater Toronto Area, including Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, and Vaughan, dropping into the -30°C to -35°C wind chill range by Saturday morning. This could mark the coldest morning Toronto has seen since 2016.

Across the western GTA, Hamilton, and Niagara, temperatures should hover in the low -20s, though wind chills will still make it feel close to -30˚C. A similar pattern is expected for parts of Bruce and Huron counties closer to Lake Huron, where slightly milder air off the lake may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer.

Saturday daytime temperatures will remain very cold, though not as brutally cold as seen in the morning. Expect temperatures in the teens with the wind chill making it feel below -20°C in many areas. Overnight Saturday, wind chills may return back to near -30°C into Sunday morning.

Northern Ontario will bear the brunt of this event. Air temperatures are expected to drop toward -35°C, with wind chills approaching -45°C across a large portion of the region.

Some model guidance even suggests brief pockets of wind chills near -50°C, though confidence in those extreme values remains lower.

These conditions pose a serious risk to vulnerable individuals, particularly those who are unhoused or lack reliable access to warm shelter. Prolonged exposure to wind chills in the -30°C to -40°C range can become life threatening in a very short period of time. Even brief exposure during overnight hours can lead to frostbite or hypothermia, making this type of cold especially dangerous for people sleeping outdoors or in inadequately heated spaces.

The elderly are also at heightened risk during extreme cold events. Older adults may have reduced circulation, underlying health conditions, or difficulty sensing cold, all of which increase the risk of cold related illness. Those living alone or with limited mobility may struggle to maintain adequate indoor heating or may be unable to seek help quickly if something goes wrong.

Young children are another group that requires extra attention during this kind of cold. Their bodies lose heat more quickly, and they may not recognize early warning signs of frostbite or hypothermia. Even short trips outdoors without proper winter gear can become dangerous when wind chills drop this low.

Community members are encouraged to check in on neighbours, friends, and family, especially seniors or anyone known to be struggling with housing insecurity. Many municipalities and community organizations open warming centres during extreme cold events, and knowing where these resources are located can make a critical difference.

This kind of cold also places additional strain on infrastructure. Water mains are more vulnerable to freezing, older homes may struggle to retain heat, and power outages become more concerning when wind chills are this low. Anyone relying on supplemental heating should ensure proper ventilation, as carbon monoxide risk increases during prolonged cold spells.

Pet safety is another major concern during extreme cold events like this. Animals left outdoors for extended periods are at significant risk of frostbite and hypothermia, even if they are accustomed to winter conditions. Paw pads are especially vulnerable due to prolonged contact with snow and ice, and salt-treated surfaces can cause additional irritation.

January 23, 2026

No End in Sight for Simcoe County and Grey-Bruce as Endless Snow Squalls Bring the Risk of Over 50cm More Snow on Friday

January 23, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Here we go again, say it ain’t snow. It should come as no surprise to residents across the snowbelt east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay that more snow is on the way to end the week. After a relentless stretch of lake effect activity, snow squalls are set to ramp back up on Friday as activity currently over Muskoka and the Bruce Peninsula drops southward into Simcoe County and Grey-Bruce.

These areas are no strangers to snow squalls at this point, as they have been dealing with them on and off for much of the past week. Simcoe County did manage to sneak in a brief break on Thursday, but that lull will be short lived. Friday is shaping up to be a sharp reminder of just how powerful these lake effect streamers can be, with snowfall totals quickly piling up once again. By Saturday morning, many communities could be digging out from an additional 25-50cm of snow.

In some localized areas, especially portions of southern Bruce County south of Owen Sound, snowfall totals could push even higher. Some model guidance continues to hint at locally over 50cm where bands become most persistent. On top of that, blowing snow will once again be a major concern. Wind gusts approaching 60 km/h will combine with an already deep snowpack to create widespread drifting. As a result, many local roads and highways are likely to remain closed, and that list could grow through the day Friday as conditions deteriorate.

As snow squalls begin to weaken overnight Friday into early Saturday, the focus will quickly shift to the cold. This setup is expected to deliver what could be the coldest night in years across much of Southern Ontario. Wind chills could plunge into the -40s in some areas, with nearly all of Southern Ontario seeing wind chills in the -30 range by Saturday morning.

Overnight, snow squall activity currently affecting Parry Sound and Muskoka is expected to migrate southward and settle somewhere between southern Muskoka and northern Parry Sound by mid-morning Friday. This band could become quite persistent as it drifts south, heavily impacting travel corridors.

Highway 400 between MacTier and Barrie and Highway 11 between Bracebridge and Orillia look especially vulnerable. Rapidly accumulating snowfall and poor visibility could lead to partial or full closures along these stretches as conditions worsen throughout the day.

By the afternoon, strong wind gusts in the 60 to 70 km/h range are expected to develop. This will significantly increase the risk of blowing snow and near zero visibility, making travel extremely hazardous even in areas not seeing the heaviest snowfall rates.

Attention will also turn to Lake Huron, where more organized lake effect activity is expected to develop east of the lake Friday afternoon. Current model guidance suggests the most intense and focused band will set up somewhere between Owen Sound and Kincardine, extending inland toward Hanover.

This band has the potential to lock in for an extended period through much of Friday afternoon and evening. Where it becomes stationary, snowfall totals could become extreme. Under the right conditions, some localized spots could see 50cm or more, with an outside chance of totals approaching 75 to 100cm if everything lines up just right. Hourly snowfall rates could approach 10cm at times, with very cold air helping boost snowfall ratios and intensify accumulations.

Additional lake effect activity is also expected to impact Huron and Perth counties, although this snow looks less intense and more spread out. Even so, gusty winds throughout the afternoon will create treacherous travel conditions, especially in open areas that are particularly prone to blowing and drifting snow.

Expect ongoing and possibly expanding highway closures across Grey-Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties throughout the day on Friday as conditions remain dangerous.

As we head into Friday night, the Georgian Bay snow squall affecting Simcoe County should gradually weaken and retreat back toward the shoreline around midnight. Snowfall rates will ease, but blowing snow may remain an issue for a time.

The Lake Huron snow squall impacting Grey-Bruce is expected to linger overnight, though it should slowly weaken heading into Saturday morning. As winds ease and the fetch shortens, bands will gradually retreat closer to the lake.

As always with lake effect snow, totals can vary dramatically over short distances due to the narrow and highly localized nature of these bands. That said, there is fairly strong model agreement that the hardest hit area will fall somewhere around Port Elgin, Chatsworth, and Hanover. An intense and persistent squall in this corridor could lead to over 50cm of snow by Saturday morning.

Communities such as Owen Sound, Flesherton, Mildmay, and Kincardine, along with Midland, Orillia, Wasaga Beach, and Gravenhurst, can expect widespread snowfall totals in the 25-50cm range. There is still some uncertainty with the exact placement of the Georgian Bay squall, with some models keeping it tighter and others spreading it out more. Because of that uncertainty, the zone for 25cm or more stretches from Gravenhurst south toward just north of Barrie, even though the actual hardest hit area will likely be smaller.

The City of Barrie sits right on the southern edge of the main snow squall zone. At this point, it appears Barrie will narrowly miss the worst of the snow, keeping totals closer to 15-25cm, especially toward the south end of the city. That said, there is still a chance the squall dips farther south than expected. One model does bring heavier snow into Barrie, which means locally higher totals closer to 35cm cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere across Grey-Bruce and into northern sections of Huron, Perth, Wellington, and Dufferin counties, snowfall totals in the 15-25cm range look likely. Some localized areas could still end up closer to 30 or even 35cm, depending on how individual bands evolve.

Lower snowfall amounts are expected across the Greater Toronto Area. However, the Lake Huron squall could brush parts of the western Golden Horseshoe, bringing a quick few centimetres in spots. Farther east, including Durham Region and the Kawartha Lakes, the Georgian Bay squall could deliver around 5-10cm.

Little to no snow is expected across deep southwestern Ontario and far eastern Ontario, which is why those areas are not highlighted on the snowfall map.

While snow squalls begin to wind down overnight Friday, the cold will only continue to intensify. Saturday is shaping up to be potentially the coldest day many areas have experienced in years. Some locations, including Toronto, could be looking at their coldest Saturday morning since 2016.

Temperatures are expected to drop near -30˚C across central and eastern Ontario, with wind chills making it feel between -35˚C and -40˚C. Areas east of Lake Huron and around parts of the Golden Horseshoe may be slightly less cold, but still dangerously so.

Northern Ontario will be under the core of this polar air mass, with some of the coldest air on Earth spilling south. Temperatures there could dip near or below -35˚C, with wind chills approaching -45˚C across much of the region. Some model guidance even suggests wind chills near -50, though that remains uncertain.

Once the cold settles in, attention will quickly turn to the next potential system. A high-impact snowstorm is showing signs of developing and could bring significant snowfall across a wide swath of Southern Ontario heading into Monday. Current model trends suggest over 30cm of snow is possible in some areas, including parts of the Greater Toronto Area.

A preliminary forecast for that system will be issued on Friday as we continue to monitor trends and fine-tune the details. Stay tuned.

January 21, 2026

Snowy One-Two Punch Targets Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday as Alberta Clipper and Squalls Dump Up to 25 to 50 cm of Snow

January 21, 2026/ Brennen Perry

The story of the week so far across Southern Ontario has been the relentless snow squall activity that has been hammering the region, bringing treacherous travel conditions as a surge of Arctic air continues to sit overhead. These squalls have been anything but minor, producing frequent whiteouts, rapidly deteriorating road conditions, and dangerous travel at times.

The worst of the impacts on Tuesday was when intense snow squalls forced the closure of multiple stretches of Hwy 11 between Bracebridge and Orillia. Whiteout conditions combined with rapidly accumulating snow led to several accidents, leaving many drivers stranded and highlighting just how dangerous these squalls can become when they lock into place.

While the snow squalls are far from finished, the threat zone is expected to shift over the next few days as winds gradually turn more westerly. This change in wind direction will push the most persistent squall activity away from areas that were hit earlier this week and refocus it further west and north.

As a result, locations such as the Bruce Peninsula, Muskoka, Parry Sound, and even areas further inland like Haliburton and Bancroft are expected to see the most significant impacts through the second half of the week.

Snow squall activity will briefly weaken during the day on Wednesday, but this will not be because the atmosphere is calming down. Instead, an Alberta Clipper is expected to move into Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday morning, temporarily disrupting the lake effect setup.

This clipper will spread a shield of steady light to moderate snow across Southwestern Ontario, extending through the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario as the day goes on. While this system is not expected to produce extreme snowfall amounts on its own, it will still have notable impacts due to its timing and the already poor road conditions in many areas.

Compared to the storm some locations experienced last week, snowfall totals with this system will be more modest. However, the combination of falling snow, reduced visibility, and slick road surfaces could still make both the morning and evening commute hazardous in spots.

At this point, we are expecting a general 5 to 10 cm from the Alberta Clipper. As is typical with these systems, snowfall will not be uniform. Alberta Clippers are often moisture-starved, which can lead to dry pockets where snowfall totals underperform, while narrow bands of heavier snow can locally boost amounts closer to 15 cm.

Snow squalls that are already developed east of Georgian Bay will continue to impact the Parry Sound and Muskoka region through the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Travel conditions in these areas will remain poor early in the day, especially where bands remain persistent.

As the clipper approaches, winds will begin to shift by mid-morning, weakening the squalls and temporarily shutting down the lake effect snow machine. This will offer a short-lived improvement in conditions for areas east of Georgian Bay before the next phase of the pattern kicks in.

The outer bands of snow associated with the Alberta Clipper will begin to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario around sunrise, affecting areas such as Windsor, Sarnia, and Chatham. From there, the snow will steadily expand northeastward through the late morning hours.

By midday, snow will be falling across much of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe and Central Ontario. Snowfall rates are not expected to be overly intense, generally topping out around 1-2 cm per hour, but wind gusts of 40 to 60 km/h could still lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Model guidance is also hinting at the development of a dry slot north of the GTA, particularly around Lake Simcoe. This includes areas such as Collingwood, Barrie, and parts of York Region, where snowfall rates could be noticeably lower.

This is a common issue with Alberta Clippers. While the Great Lakes can often help enhance snowfall by adding moisture, regions around Lake Simcoe may miss out when winds are predominantly southerly. In this setup, they sit outside the direct influence of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario moisture feeds.

On the flip side, the Toronto to Kingston corridor is expected to benefit from Lake Ontario enhancement. This added moisture could push snowfall totals closer to 10 to 15 cm in this zone, slightly higher than surrounding areas.

This enhanced snowfall is also expected to coincide with the evening commute, particularly along Hwy 401 east of Toronto toward Kingston. Drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions, with visibility dropping quickly at times as heavier bursts of snow move through.

Light snow will also spread into the Ottawa Valley by early afternoon. However, snowfall totals will likely taper off the further north you go as the influence of Lake Ontario weakens. Ottawa itself may only pick up a few centimetres by the time the snow winds down Wednesday evening.

Snow from the clipper is expected to gradually taper off from west to east by the late afternoon or early evening as the system exits Eastern Ontario. Unfortunately, this break will be brief for snowbelt regions.

As the system departs, lake effect snow is expected to rapidly redevelop overnight Wednesday as winds settle into a southwesterly direction. This will allow the lake effect machine to roar back to life.

The brunt of the snow squall activity overnight will be focused on the Bruce Peninsula, Parry Sound, and North Muskoka. At times, these squalls could stretch further inland toward areas like Sundridge and even North Bay.

Travel conditions overnight into Thursday are expected to be very poor. Snowfall rates may become intense within the strongest bands, and it is quite possible that sections of Hwy 400 or Hwy 11 could see temporary closures if snow accumulates faster than crews can keep up. Travel in these areas is highly discouraged.

By sunrise Thursday, winds are expected to gradually turn more westerly. This shift will cause the main squall to sink southward into Muskoka, targeting locations such as Bracebridge, Port Carling, Baysville, Port Sydney, Rosseau, and MacTier.

Some model guidance suggests this squall could become nearly stationary through much of the day Thursday. If this scenario verifies, snowfall totals could quickly climb, with some areas potentially exceeding 50 cm by the end of Thursday.

Other models suggest a more oscillating band that shifts north and south throughout the day. While this would limit extreme totals in one single location, it would spread significant snowfall across a broader portion of Muskoka and Parry Sound.

As we head into Thursday afternoon, the impacts of the Georgian Bay squall may extend beyond the typical snowbelt. Strengthening winds could allow the band to push further inland, potentially reaching parts of Eastern Ontario and even the Ottawa Valley.

Locations such as Bancroft, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, and Ottawa could see several hours of heavy snow, leading to sudden whiteout conditions right during the evening commute. These whiteouts can occur with very little warning, making it critical for drivers to remain alert and be ready to adjust their driving immediately.

It could also bring a quick 5-10cm to the Ottawa Valley, which, combined with the Alberta Clipper, puts them in the 5-15cm range despite missing the worst of the clipper.

Additional lake effect snow is also possible east of Lake Huron during the day on Thursday, affecting Grey Bruce, along with parts of Huron and Perth Counties. While models are not showing a well-organized band at this time, wind gusts near 60 km/h could still lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Snow squall activity is likely to persist into Thursday night and possibly into Friday morning. This forecast cuts off at the end of Thursday, with a separate update planned to cover Friday and beyond.

In terms of snowfall totals, most areas away from the lake effect are expected to see around 5 to 10 cm from the Alberta Clipper alone. Some pockets will fall short of that, while others may exceed it slightly, depending on lake enhancement.

That is why regions not expecting lake effect snow are generally placed in the 5 to 15 cm range. This includes much of Eastern Ontario, parts of the eastern GTA, and most of Southwestern Ontario.

Exceptions include areas northwest of the GTA, such as Barrie, Keswick, Bradford, Orangeville, and Angus, as well as Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington, and Chatham. These locations are expected to see less moisture and may remain below 5 cm. The same applies to the western GTA and Hamilton.

Once lake effect snow is factored in, totals increase quickly east of Georgian Bay. This includes snowfall from early Wednesday before the clipper arrives and the more intense squalls that follow on Thursday.

Snowfall totals of 25 to 50 cm are expected for the Bruce Peninsula, including Wiarton, Lions Head, and Tobermory, as well as areas east of Georgian Bay such as Bracebridge, Huntsville, and Parry Sound. Muskoka in particular has the potential to exceed 50 cm if the squall becomes stationary on Thursday.

Further south and east, areas such as Midland, Gravenhurst, Minden, Haliburton, and Bancroft can expect around 5 to 10 cm from the system, with an additional 10 to 15 cm from lake effect snow. This puts totals in the 15 to 25 cm range, with locally higher amounts possible.

Southern Grey-Bruce, extending into portions of Huron and Perth Counties, including Owen Sound, Meaford, Hanover, and Listowel, is also expected to end up in the 15 to 25 cm range by the time all is said and done.

January 19, 2026

Southern Ontario Plunges Into the Deep Freeze With Dangerous Blizzard Conditions on Monday

January 19, 2026/ Brennen Perry

That January thaw is now firmly in the rearview mirror across Southern Ontario after a major winter storm last week reminded us that we are still very much in the heart of winter. That storm brought widespread snowfall to the region, with many areas picking up significant accumulations and some seeing totals in the 30 to 50 cm range by the time it wrapped up on Thursday.

While we are not expecting another large, widespread system-related snowstorm of that magnitude in the immediate future, the pattern is far from quiet. In fact, the bigger story going forward will be a prolonged stretch of much colder weather as we head deeper into January. A true deep freeze is set to take hold beginning early this upcoming week and is expected to persist for much of the remainder of the month.

With temperatures plunging and the Great Lakes still largely ice-free, the setup becomes ideal for an active period of lake effect snow. Cold polar air moving over relatively warm lake waters is the perfect fuel source for snow squalls, and that lake effect snow machine is about to kick into high gear.

Ironically, this could end up being one of the last notable lake effect events of the season, as colder temperatures later this month will eventually lead to increasing ice coverage. Once the lakes begin to freeze over, the moisture supply is cut off, and snow squalls shut down. For now, though, the lakes are open and very capable of producing heavy snow.

That lake effect machine is expected to come roaring to life starting on Monday. By the time activity winds down late Tuesday, some communities could be digging out from substantial snowfall. Totals of 25 to 50 cm are possible in parts of Grey Bruce, Simcoe County and areas north of Parry Sound, although, as always with lake effect snow, not everyone will see those kinds of amounts.

Snow squall activity is expected to begin organizing overnight into Monday morning along the eastern Lake Huron shoreline. This activity will expand throughout the morning, affecting Grey Bruce, the Bruce Peninsula, and regions northeast of Georgian Bay. Additional lake effect bands are also expected to develop off Lakes Erie and Ontario, impacting parts of the Niagara region and Prince Edward County as early as Monday morning.

Conditions will deteriorate quickly on Monday afternoon as strong winds develop across much of Southern Ontario. Wind gusts of 60 to 90 km per hour are expected, and when combined with ongoing snow squalls, this could lead to dangerous blizzard conditions, particularly east of Lake Huron and in Prince Edward County.

The worst conditions are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours, with blowing snow and near zero visibility at times. There is also some concern that blowing snow could briefly impact parts of the Golden Horseshoe around the evening commute.

Through Monday night and into Tuesday morning, attention shifts toward a potentially intense and long-lasting snow squall. This band may set up across the Bruce Peninsula, extend across Georgian Bay, and come ashore into Simcoe County and possibly the Kawartha Lakes.

Some models suggest this squall could lock into place for 6 to 12 hours before finally lifting northward by Tuesday afternoon. Where it becomes stationary, snowfall rates could be intense, and accumulations could climb rapidly in a short period of time.

Adding to the concern will be the arrival of bitterly cold air late Monday. Temperatures will fall sharply, and by Tuesday morning, wind chills could make it feel like minus 20 degrees or colder across much of Southern Ontario. In some areas, wind chills could dip even lower.

When combined with heavy snow and strong winds, conditions could quickly become life-threatening for anyone who becomes stranded. Travel is strongly discouraged in the hardest hit regions beginning late Monday morning and continuing through Tuesday.

Lake effect snow will continue to organize overnight into Monday morning along Lake Huron, particularly around Grey Bruce. Bands will extend across the Bruce Peninsula and into areas northeast of Georgian Bay, including Parry Sound and even as far inland as North Bay at times.

While there is still some disagreement in the models regarding exact intensity, confidence is high enough to expect very poor driving conditions due to blowing snow and rapidly changing visibility, especially northeast of Georgian Bay, where the strongest bands are most likely.

There is also a more uncertain, but still concerning, snow squall signal for the Niagara region and the northeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario. The Canadian model shows a well-organized band coming off Lake Erie, moving across the Niagara region, then redeveloping over Lake Ontario and making landfall again across Prince Edward County and into the Kingston area. Other models are less aggressive with this scenario, particularly with the Lake Erie component, but there is better agreement that the Lake Ontario squalls will develop.

If this scenario plays out, it could lead to poor conditions and brief whiteouts during the Monday morning commute in parts of Niagara, as well as along portions of the Highway 401 corridor between Oshawa and Kingston.

By Monday afternoon, lake effect activity is expected to persist across Grey Bruce and areas northeast of Georgian Bay, although shifting winds may cause bands to weaken and reorganize at times. In the Niagara region, any squall activity should gradually sink south and east into upstate New York, with Niagara Falls and Fort Erie likely among the last locations to see conditions improve.

As winds shift, there is also a risk that a narrow but intense squall could sweep through Eastern Ontario during the afternoon, affecting areas such as Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall with sudden bursts of heavy snow and near zero visibility.

For many areas on Monday, the main impact may not be total snowfall amounts, but rather the combination of strong winds and blowing snow. Wind gusts of 60 to 90 km per hour across Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe will make travel extremely difficult in open areas. East of Lake Huron, widespread road closures are very likely through the afternoon and early evening hours as conditions become too dangerous for travel.

Prince Edward County is also at risk of blizzard conditions if snow squalls persist there through the afternoon. Even modest snowfall rates can create severe conditions when combined with strong winds and exposed roadways.

Winds are expected to ease slightly on Monday evening, but blowing snow may continue overnight wherever squalls remain active.

As wind direction becomes better aligned during the evening, lake effect snow off Lake Huron may push further inland. This could allow poor visibility and blowing snow to extend into areas such as Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka and the northern GTA around the dinner hour.

Confidence continues to increase for a more prolific snow squall to set up overnight Monday into Tuesday. This band may stretch across the Bruce Peninsula and move ashore from Georgian Bay into areas such as Midland, Barrie and Orillia. At times, it could reach far inland, potentially impacting the Kawartha Lakes and even the Peterborough area.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact placement. Some models focus the heaviest snowfall over northern Simcoe County, including Midland and Orillia, while others bring the core of the squall closer to Barrie. Regardless of exact placement, this squall could persist through Tuesday morning, remaining nearly stationary for several hours. Snowfall rates in the heaviest pockets could approach 10 cm per hour, which would lead to significant accumulations in a short amount of time.

What makes this setup particularly dangerous is what it will be accompanied by at the same time. This intense snow squall is expected to coincide with bitterly cold temperatures. Wind chills will drop into the minus 20s and even minus 30s in some areas starting Monday evening and continuing overnight into Tuesday morning. In these conditions, frostbite and hypothermia can develop very quickly, sometimes in just minutes.

If someone becomes stranded during one of these squalls, the situation can become life-threatening rapidly. Emergency services may struggle to reach those in need due to road closures and near-zero visibility, and snowplows simply cannot keep up with snowfall rates of 5 to 10 cm per hour. This is why staying off the roads in affected regions is strongly advised.

By Tuesday afternoon, the most persistent squall should lift north of Simcoe County and move into Muskoka and Parry Sound. The band may briefly reorganize Tuesday night ahead of another potential system arriving on Wednesday.

That system on Wednesday could bring a more widespread snowfall of around 5 to 15 cm across much of Southern Ontario. More details on that will be shared in a separate forecast closer to midweek.

When it comes to snowfall totals from this lake effect event, it is important to remember how localized these squalls can be. Accumulations can vary dramatically over short distances depending on where bands set up, how long they persist, and whether they wobble or remain stationary.

Our forecast highlights areas most at risk for higher totals, but not everyone within those zones will see the same amounts, and some locations could overperform if a band shifts unexpectedly.

The highest snowfall totals are most likely across Grey Bruce, particularly the Bruce Peninsula, where 25 to 50 cm of snow is possible. Areas on the peninsula are more likely to reach the upper end of that range, while locations farther south, such as Hanover and Flesherton, may be closer to 25 cm or could even fall short if bands stay to the north.

A similar 25 to 50 cm potential exists southeast of Georgian Bay, including Midland, Wasaga Beach, Barrie, Orillia, Washago and Beaverton. Areas northeast of Georgian Bay, north of Parry Sound, including Pointe au Baril and Britt, are also within this higher snowfall zone.

Amounts of 15 to 25 cm are expected for places such as Goderich, Point Clark, Wingham, Listowel, Minto, Shelburne, Lindsay, Fenelon Falls, Coboconk, Gravenhurst and Parry Sound.

Along the Lake Ontario shoreline, areas northeast of the lake, including Brighton, Belleville, Picton, Napanee and Kingston could also see 15 to 25 cm, with locally higher totals possible in spots like Picton if a band locks in.

The Niagara region, including Fort Erie, Niagara Falls, Niagara on the Lake, St. Catharines and Welland, is looking at generally 5 to 15 cm. Most locations will likely be closer to the lower end of that range, with Niagara Falls and Fort Erie having the best chance of seeing higher totals if a squall sets up nearby.

Elsewhere, including Woodstock, Kitchener, Fergus, Guelph, Orangeville, Keswick, Port Perry, Peterborough, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Haliburton, Cobourg and Brockville, totals of 5 to 15 cm are possible. Many of these areas will end up closer to 5 cm, but isolated locations could see higher amounts depending on how lake effect bands evolve.

For the GTA, London, deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley, snowfall amounts are expected to remain under 5 cm, although gusty winds and blowing snow may still impact travel at times.

January 14, 2026

High-Impact Snowstorm to Disrupt Thursday Morning Commute for Toronto, London, Ottawa and Eastern Ontario With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

January 14, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After a brief break from winter that allowed much of Southern Ontario to enjoy a bit of a so-called “January thaw”, it is becoming very clear that winter is far from finished. A sharp and notable cool down is now underway across the province, and by Thursday morning, temperatures will plunge well below seasonal levels.

Many areas across Southern Ontario will see air temperatures drop to near or below -15°C, and when the wind is factored in, it could feel closer to -20°C to -30°C in some communities.

While the bitter cold will certainly be noticeable, it will not be the main story over the next 24 to 36 hours. Attention now turns to a developing winter storm that forecast models have struggled to resolve right up until the last minute. This system is expected to spread a broad swath of steady snowfall across much of Southern Ontario, with the potential for significant impacts in highly populated and heavily travelled regions.

Earlier forecasts suggested this would be a fairly routine winter event, with snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15 centimetre range for the hardest hit areas. That type of snowfall is very common this time of year and would have resulted in some slow travel, but nothing overly disruptive. However, the latest model runs have dramatically shifted, showing a much stronger and more organized storm system taking shape.

Over the past several model cycles, guidance has intensified considerably. We are now tracking what could become the most widespread and impactful snowfall event of the season so far for parts of Southern Ontario. Some areas may see snowfall totals that rival or exceed anything experienced so far this winter.

Based on the latest data, we are now forecasting widespread snowfall totals in the 20 to 40 centimetre range across a large corridor stretching from Southwestern Ontario through the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario.

Snow has already begun in some areas and is expected to continue intensifying through Wednesday evening, persisting through much of the day on Thursday before finally tapering off later in the afternoon or early evening.

This higher impact zone covers a very large portion of the province, including some of the most densely populated regions. This alone raises concerns about travel disruptions, school and business impacts, and the potential for extended cleanup times once the snow finally ends.

In addition to the steady system snowfall, there is also the potential for snow squalls to become embedded within the system. These are most likely to develop south of Lake Huron, particularly overnight into Thursday morning. Areas between Sarnia and London, including Lambton County and parts of Chatham-Kent, could see enhanced snowfall rates as lake enhancement adds extra moisture to the system.

The worst travel conditions are expected to occur overnight and into Thursday morning. By the time many people wake up, there will already be a substantial amount of snow on the ground, with steady snowfall ongoing. This sets the stage for a very difficult Thursday morning commute across much of Southern Ontario.

If travel can be avoided in the hardest hit areas, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday, it would be strongly advised. For those who must travel, expect significant delays, poor visibility at times, and rapidly deteriorating road conditions, particularly in urban areas that have not yet seen a snowfall of this magnitude this season.

While there is growing agreement among models that a major snowfall event is likely, confidence is still not especially high when it comes to the exact placement of the heaviest bands. The forecast remains volatile, with some models continuing to shift the storm track slightly north or south. This has created a very sharp snowfall gradient, meaning small changes in the storm’s position could result in big differences in totals over short distances.

In some cases, communities could see over 20 centimetres of snow, while locations just 30 or 40 kilometres away may see less than half of that. This makes pinpointing exact totals extremely challenging and increases the risk of some areas either underperforming or significantly exceeding the forecast.

Snow has already begun across Deep Southwestern Ontario and will continue spreading northeastward through the evening. By around midnight, snowfall should be widespread across much of Southwestern Ontario and expanding into the Golden Horseshoe, including the Niagara region and western GTA.

For many locations, snowfall will begin as steady and moderate, gradually increasing in intensity through the overnight hours. Snowfall rates will generally sit around 1 to 2 centimetres per hour initially, which on its own may not seem overly concerning. The issue is the duration of the event, as these rates will persist for 12 hours or more in some areas, allowing snow to pile up over time.

The heaviest snowfall overnight is expected to be focused between Sarnia and London, where lake enhancement off Lake Huron may briefly boost snowfall rates higher. These heavier bursts could make travel especially difficult overnight and into the early morning hours.

Wind will also become a factor as the storm progresses. Gusts will increase to between 40 and 60 kilometres per hour in some areas overnight. When combined with falling snow, this will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly in open and rural areas.

Conditions are expected to continue deteriorating into Thursday morning as snowfall intensity increases across much of the Golden Horseshoe. Areas from London through Hamilton and into the Greater Toronto Area could see periods of heavier snow during the morning hours. In the most intense bands, snowfall rates may briefly reach 2 to 4 centimetres per hour, which will make it very difficult for road crews to keep up.

Unfortunately, this lines up almost perfectly with the Thursday morning rush hour. Travel across the GTA and surrounding regions will be extremely slow, and in some cases nearly impossible, especially on secondary roads. If you can delay travel or work from home, Thursday morning would be an ideal time to do so.

Snow will also spread into Eastern Ontario overnight and early Thursday morning. The Ottawa area is expected to see snow arrive around or just before the morning commute, with conditions worsening through the late morning and early afternoon hours.

One of the most important details we are still watching closely is the northern cutoff of the heaviest snow. As shown on the forecast map, there is a sharp transition zone near areas such as Barrie and Peterborough. The American HRRR model suggests that locations just north of this line may see very little snow, while those south of it could see totals exceeding 20 centimetres.

Other model solutions shift this cutoff further south, which would place parts of the GTA closer to the lower snowfall edge. Meanwhile, some guidance shifts it further north, allowing areas like Barrie and Peterborough to see much higher totals. This uncertainty is why confidence drops significantly near this transition zone.

Another key factor enhancing snowfall totals is the colder air moving in behind the system. By Thursday morning, many parts of Southern Ontario will feel like -20°C or colder once you factor in the wind chill.

As temperatures drop, the snow becomes lighter and fluffier. Colder air allows snowflakes to be less dense, which means the same amount of moisture can produce more snow on the ground. This is known as a higher snow-to-liquid ratio, and it is one reason totals may end up higher than initially expected.

Through the late morning hours on Thursday, heavy snow is expected to continue across the Golden Horseshoe while spreading further east into Eastern Ontario.

In the west, areas near Lake Huron and Deep Southwestern Ontario should begin to see snowfall gradually taper off toward the end of the morning.

By around noon, steady snow should still be falling from the Golden Horseshoe eastward into Eastern Ontario. The Niagara region and eastern portions of the GTA may remain under heavier snowfall for the first part of the afternoon before intensity slowly begins to decrease.

Eastern Ontario may end up seeing the worst conditions during the early to mid-afternoon hours. Snowfall rates here are expected to range between 1 and 3 centimetres per hour and could linger for several hours before tapering off later in the day.

Snow should finally begin to move out of most areas by late afternoon or early evening, though a few lingering flurries may persist into the evening across Eastern Ontario.

The most challenging aspect of this storm remains the tight snowfall gradient. Small shifts in storm track will make a big difference in totals, and models continue to disagree on exactly where that cutoff will set up. This means forecast amounts could change with little notice.

After reviewing all available guidance, we have put together a snowfall forecast that reflects the most likely scenario based on the majority of model data. However, this is one of those events where nearly every model offers a slightly different outcome, and it would not take much for totals to shift in either direction.

The highest snowfall totals appear most likely in a corridor stretching from Sarnia through London, across the entire Golden Horseshoe, and into Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley. These areas can expect widespread totals of 20 to 40 centimetres, with isolated pockets possibly approaching or exceeding 50 centimetres.

This includes communities such as Sarnia, Chatham, London, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Brantford, Niagara Falls, Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph, Mississauga, Toronto, Oshawa, Belleville, Tweed, Kingston, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Ottawa, Brockville and Cornwall.

Slightly lower totals in the 10 to 20 centimetre range are expected for areas like Windsor, Leamington, Grand Bend, Goderich, Hanover, Orangeville, Newmarket, Peterborough and Bancroft. This is also the zone with the lowest confidence, as some of these locations could end up with significantly more or less snow depending on where the cutoff ultimately sets up.

Further north and west, snowfall amounts drop off quickly. Areas such as Owen Sound, Barrie and Pembroke are expected to see less than 10 centimetres of accumulation, with little to no snowfall expected north of Orillia.

These totals remain subject to change, and adjustments are likely as the storm unfolds. We will be closely monitoring conditions throughout Thursday and will provide real-time updates as we see how the storm is evolving on radar and through observations.

January 06, 2026

Southern Ontario Faces Ice Threat Then Snow as Fast Moving Winter System Disrupts Tuesday Travel

January 06, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A fast changing winter system is expected to sweep through much of Southern Ontario during the day on Tuesday, bringing a messy mix of precipitation types and rapidly changing conditions. While this is not expected to be a blockbuster storm on its own, the combination of freezing rain followed by snow could still create localized impacts, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

The first part of this system will arrive Tuesday morning and early afternoon, with freezing rain becoming the dominant concern for several regions. Widespread freezing rain is expected to develop across the higher elevations northwest of the GTA, extending into areas north of Lake Simcoe and along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Peterborough eastward toward Kingston. These elevated regions tend to hang onto colder air longer, making them more vulnerable to icing during marginal setups like this one.

Freezing rain is expected to begin developing across parts of Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron, including the Kitchener area and the Dundalk Highlands, by the late morning hours on Tuesday. From there, the freezing rain shield is forecast to spread north and eastward through the afternoon, reaching areas around Lake Simcoe such as Barrie, along with York Region, Durham Region, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough and eventually Kingston.

In some locations, the precipitation may initially fall as ice pellets during the early afternoon before transitioning over to freezing rain for a few hours. This could help slightly limit ice accretion at first, but any freezing rain will still make untreated roads, sidewalks and elevated surfaces quite slick as temperatures remain near or below freezing.

For the GTA, the freezing rain threat looks more limited, but it cannot be ruled out entirely. There could be an hour or two of freezing rain during the afternoon, especially in the northern parts of the region, before precipitation transitions over to light snow by the evening. Meanwhile, areas in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region are expected to remain mostly on the rain side of this system, with temperatures hovering in the low single digits above freezing for much of the event.

One of the more unusual aspects of this system is what happens after the freezing rain ends. While ice accretion amounts are expected to generally remain manageable, in the range of 2 to 5 millimetres for areas northwest of the GTA into Simcoe County and eastward through Peterborough and Kingston, there will not be a quick or clean warm-up. Instead, colder air is expected to surge back in, overpowering the warm layer aloft.

As this colder air deepens, precipitation is forecast to transition back to snow by the early evening and continue into the overnight hours across Central and Eastern Ontario, as well as the higher elevations northwest of the GTA. This changeover could happen fairly quickly once it begins, leading to periods of steady snowfall through Tuesday night.

Snowfall totals from this second phase of the system are expected to range from 5 to 10 centimetres across many of the same areas that experienced freezing rain earlier in the day. This includes parts of Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough and areas toward Kingston, as well as elevated terrain northwest of the GTA.

While neither the ice accretion nor the snowfall amounts are particularly extreme on their own, the combined impact could be more significant. Even light ice accretion can weaken tree branches and add extra weight to power lines, and when followed by several centimetres of heavy, wet snow, the risk of isolated power outages and downed branches increases.

Elsewhere, including the GTA, regions east of Lake Huron and parts of northern Central and Eastern Ontario, snowfall totals are expected to be lighter, generally in the 2 to 5 centimetre range. This should still be enough to create slick travel conditions Tuesday evening and overnight, especially as temperatures drop back below freezing.

For the Ottawa region, this system looks less impressive overall. Precipitation amounts appear limited, and snowfall totals may struggle to reach the 2 centimetre mark by the time everything wraps up.

As always with systems like this, small changes in temperature can make a big difference in precipitation type and impacts. Drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions throughout the day on Tuesday, especially in areas that see freezing rain followed by accumulating snow.

January 04, 2026

Quick Blast of Heavy Snow May Impact the Morning Commute in Southern Ontario With Up to 15cm of Snow on Monday

January 04, 2026/ Brennen Perry

It has certainly been a busy start to 2026 across parts of Southern Ontario, especially in the snowbelt regions. Relentless snow squalls over the past week have brought widespread travel disruptions along with staggering snowfall totals, with some areas picking up an incredible 50 to 100cm of snow in a relatively short period of time.

While we managed to catch a bit of a break through the weekend, that quieter stretch will be short-lived. The first full week of the new year is shaping up to be an active one, with several rounds of messy winter weather expected to move through Southern Ontario over the next few days.

The next system arrives early Monday in the form of a fast-moving Alberta clipper. Unfortunately, the timing could not be much worse. With many people heading back to work and school after the holiday break, this system is expected to sweep through during the heart of the Monday morning commute.

Snow is expected to break out across Southwestern Ontario and quickly expand northeastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. While this will not be a major snowfall event by snowbelt standards, the intensity and timing of the snow could still cause notable travel issues.

Snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, especially compared to what areas east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay have been dealing with recently.

However, widespread amounts of 8 to 15cm are possible in the hardest hit regions. The key factor here is that much of this snow is expected to fall within just a few hours, which significantly increases its impact compared to a longer duration, lighter snowfall.

This clipper system is expected to move through fairly quickly, with conditions gradually improving by Monday afternoon or early evening. However, the active pattern will not take long to reload.

A second system is already lining up to arrive beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty surrounding the exact track of this system, which will ultimately determine who sees snow, ice, or rain.

At this point, areas closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario appear most at risk for a period of freezing rain, potentially followed by heavy rain as warmer air pushes northward. Further north into Central and Eastern Ontario, colder air may hold on longer, leading to another round of accumulating snow with totals in the 5 to 15cm range possible.

Looking even further ahead, we are also monitoring two additional systems that could impact Southern Ontario toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Early indications suggest much of Southern Ontario may start out on the rain side of the system on Friday. However, colder air could work its way south by Saturday, allowing rain to transition back to snow.

It is far too early to pin down exact impacts, but this system will have access to a large amount of moisture. If colder air arrives sooner or proves more stubborn than currently expected, the risk for significant snowfall or even prolonged freezing rain would increase.

Turning back to Monday’s clipper, the first bands of snow are expected to enter Southern Ontario from the west overnight into the early morning hours. Snow should develop along the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline by mid-morning, becoming steady and occasionally heavy.

By late morning, snow will spread eastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. With this occurring during peak commuting hours, expect slower travel and reduced visibility, especially for those who may be easing back into winter driving after the holidays.

Blowing and drifting snow may further reduce visibility, particularly in areas east of Lake Huron where deep snowbanks are already in place. Even moderate winds will be enough to cause drifting in open areas and along rural roadways.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate the most by the late morning hours around Lake Simcoe and into parts of the Greater Toronto Area. During this time, hourly snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 3cm, which would qualify as heavy snow. This can quickly overwhelm road crews and lead to rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

As the system continues east, light snow will begin reaching Eastern Ontario while snowfall starts to taper off closer to Lake Huron. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and into Deep Southwestern Ontario will largely be spared from the worst of the snow, with the bulk of the moisture tracking north of these regions.

Snowfall intensity will gradually decrease through the early afternoon as the system moves away. Steadier snow will linger across Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas such as Kitchener and the GTA see snow slowly taper off as the system lifts north of Lake Simcoe.

Some lingering light snow could persist into the early evening hours for parts of Eastern Ontario, including areas near Kingston and Brockville, before finally coming to an end.

There is fairly strong agreement among forecast models when it comes to overall snowfall placement. Most guidance supports a swath of 10 to 15cm stretching from Grey-Bruce through Central Ontario, into the northern GTA, Peterborough, and extending eastward toward Kingston. This zone may also extend into parts of southern Northeastern Ontario.

For our forecast map, we have opted to lower the top range slightly to 8 to 15cm rather than a more aggressive 10 to 15cm. This accounts for the possibility of some underperformance near the southern edge of the snow band, especially through parts of Toronto. Clippers are notorious for sharp gradients and occasional dry slots, which could keep totals lower in some locations.

Across the Goderich to Kitchener and Hamilton corridor, snowfall amounts of 5 to 8cm look reasonable. That said, if the system ends up being drier than expected, some locations may struggle to reach the 5cm mark.

Further south into Sarnia, London, and the Niagara Region, amounts should generally stay below 5cm. Windsor and Leamington may see little more than a trace, if any snow at all.

In the Ottawa Valley, northern sections closer to the Quebec border, including Pembroke, Ottawa, and Cornwall, are expected to see around 2 to 5cm. Areas further south, such as Bancroft, Smiths Falls, and Brockville, could pick up closer to 5 to 8cm.

Some recent model runs have hinted at heavier snow pushing a bit further north in Eastern Ontario, so the potential for localized overperformance cannot be ruled out.

Once snow winds down Monday evening, conditions will briefly improve before the next system approaches. Current guidance suggests a messy and complex setup developing Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday.

Unlike the clipper, this system will involve a stronger battle between warm and cold air. This raises the risk for a band of freezing rain to set up somewhere across Southern Ontario, at least for a few hours.

At this point, it looks like a lower-impact freezing rain scenario where areas transition from freezing rain to plain rain as warmer air moves northward. However, higher resolution models are only just coming into range, and it is possible that the cold air proves more stubborn than currently expected.

As the system exits overnight into Wednesday, a broader area of heavier snow could develop across Northeastern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. Where this snow band ultimately sets up remains uncertain, but snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15cm range are possible.

We will have a much clearer picture of that system once Monday’s clipper moves through and we can assess how the atmosphere responds.

Beyond that, yet another round of unsettled weather is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend. While heavy rain currently looks like the main concern, colder air arriving sooner could flip the script toward heavy snow. This remains highly preliminary, but it reinforces the message that winter is not easing up anytime soon.

December 31, 2025

Parts of Southern Ontario To Ring In the New Year Buried in Up to 100cm of Additional Snow by Thursday

December 31, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The weather story this week has been dominated by intense snow squalls that have practically paralyzed areas east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay, and this prolonged event is far from finished.

As of Tuesday evening, many roads across Huron, Perth, Grey, Bruce and Simcoe Counties have been closed due to dangerous whiteout conditions and rapidly accumulating snow. Springwater Township has even issued an emergency alert asking residents to stay off the roads entirely, citing the inability for emergency services to safely respond.

Unfortunately, the situation is expected to continue into the New Year as snow squall activity remains locked in across the region. Additional road closures are possible as squalls continue to drift and redevelop through Grey and Bruce Counties on Wednesday. Blowing snow will remain a major concern, even during brief lulls in snowfall, keeping travel extremely hazardous.

With snow squalls persisting and slowly shifting over the next 48 hours, widespread snowfall totals east of Lake Huron are expected to range from 30 to 60cm by the end of Thursday. We continue to highlight a few high-impact pockets between Owen Sound and Goderich, including areas near Chatsworth, Wingham and Point Clark, where total snowfall could approach or even reach 100cm if the most intense bands remain locked in place.

Simcoe County will also continue to be affected on and off through Wednesday and Thursday. A narrow but intense zone that includes hard-hit Springwater Township, along with Wasaga Beach, Barrie and Angus, could pick up an additional 30 to 60cm of snow. Confidence is slightly lower here compared to Lake Huron, and some locations may underperform if the bands wobble, but significant impacts remain likely.

Late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, attention will also turn to Lake Ontario. A snow squall currently targeting upstate New York may drift northward into portions of Prince Edward County, including Picton. If this materializes, snowfall rates could quickly ramp up, leading to a fast 15 to 30cm of accumulation in just a few hours.

Snow squall activity is expected to continue into Friday, though the pattern begins to evolve. A more westerly flow later Thursday and Friday would favour the Bruce Peninsula, northern Simcoe County and Muskoka for continued lake effect snowfall.

Overnight, snow squall activity is expected to consolidate into two primary bands between Owen Sound and Goderich. Meanwhile, activity off Georgian Bay may briefly weaken overnight, although confidence in that outcome remains low. Radar trends continue to show a very robust squall set up between Orillia and Barrie, and even if it temporarily diminishes, it is expected to redevelop by mid-morning Wednesday.

The southern Lake Huron squall may also stretch farther inland at times, potentially reaching areas like Kitchener and parts of the western GTA, bringing brief but intense bursts of snow and rapidly changing road conditions.

These squalls are expected to persist through Wednesday morning and afternoon. By Wednesday evening, a weak Alberta clipper will move through Southern Ontario, briefly shifting winds and causing lake effect snow to become more scattered for a time.

That same clipper will also cause a wind shift over Lake Ontario, which could push an organized snow squall northward into Belleville, Picton and possibly Kingston. Snowfall rates in this band could reach 4 to 8cm per hour, with total accumulations of 15 to 30cm possible before the squall exits around midnight.

Snow squall activity should reorganize overnight into Thursday morning for regions east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay as colder air deepens once again.

Based on the latest guidance, the strongest Lake Huron squall on Thursday looks most likely to set up somewhere near Kincardine, Wingham and Listowel, though this position could still shift. At the same time, the Georgian Bay squall is expected to continue hammering the Springwater and Barrie area.

By Thursday afternoon, the focus may shift northward as a multi-lake squall develops, stretching across the Bruce Peninsula, over Georgian Bay and into Midland and Orillia. Additional weaker bands may linger farther south across Huron and Perth Counties, including areas like Goderich and Stratford.

Looking ahead to Thursday night into Friday morning, the Georgian Bay squall may intensify further as winds become more westerly. This would allow the band to push northward into southern Muskoka, where it could lock in for much of the day Friday. A separate forecast focusing on Friday and the weekend will be issued closer to that time.

Before getting into final snowfall totals, it is important to remember that lake effect snow squalls are extremely localized. These narrow bands can produce massive snowfall in one community while areas just a few kilometres away receive very little. Forecast zones are intentionally broad to account for shifting winds and band placement, meaning not everyone within a zone will reach the listed totals.

With that in mind, there is strong model agreement on two primary zones with the highest snowfall potential ranging from 60 to 100cm, with localized amounts possibly exceeding 100cm if the most aggressive solutions verify.

The northern high-impact zone includes Owen Sound and Chatsworth, while the southern high-impact zone includes Point Clark and Wingham.

For the remainder of the eastern Lake Huron shoreline, snowfall totals of 30 to 60cm are expected, though isolated pockets could approach 75cm. Similar totals are possible from Wasaga Beach through Barrie, though totals there are more likely to remain on the lower end of the range.

Farther inland, areas including London, Woodstock, Kitchener, Fergus, Orillia, Innisfil, Keswick and Bradford could see 15 to 30cm. This is more conditional and depends on squalls stretching far enough inland in the right position.

That same 15 to 30cm potential also applies to parts of Prince Edward County, including Picton, where much of that snow could fall in a very short window Wednesday evening.

Surrounding regions extending southeast of London toward the Lake Erie shoreline, into Guelph, the north and eastern GTA, and along the Lake Ontario shoreline into Eastern Ontario could see 5 to 15cm by the end of Thursday. Most areas will likely stay closer to the lower end, though isolated pockets could approach 15cm due to intermittent lake effect bands.

The remainder of Southern Ontario, outside of northern Central and Eastern Ontario, can expect a general 2 to 5cm, mainly associated with the weak clipper system on Wednesday. Farther north, including the Ottawa Valley, less than 2cm is expected.

December 27, 2025

End-of-Year Major Winter Storm to Bring Dangerous Ice Storm and Blizzard Conditions Across Southern and Northeastern Ontario Starting Sunday

December 27, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Use Promo Code ‘Instant’ to Receive a Min. $25 Gift Card With Your Vacation!

As we close out 2025, the final few days are shaping up to be very messy and potentially dangerous. A complex and powerful winter storm is expected to impact Ontario between Sunday and Monday, bringing ice storm conditions to a wide swath of Central, Eastern and Northeastern Ontario.

With significant and prolonged freezing rain expected, widespread and long-lasting power outages are likely in the hardest hit areas. Ice accretion of up to 20mm is possible, and unfortunately, the regions most at risk include many of the same areas that were hit hard by last March’s major ice storm. In some locations, the power grid remains fragile, which raises additional concern.

Further north, the story will shift to heavy snow across much of Northeastern Ontario. Long-lasting blizzard conditions are possible here, with snowfall totals potentially exceeding 50cm by the time the storm finally winds down on Tuesday.

This system will also bring the risk of severe wind gusts across both Southern and Northern Ontario on Monday. Areas closest to the shorelines of the Great Lakes will be at the greatest risk, with damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h possible. There may even be some isolated pockets, mainly in the Niagara region, that approach 100 km/h.

Southwestern Ontario will be largely unaffected by the first phase of the storm. Temperatures here will rise steadily on Sunday, peaking in the double digits by late afternoon or evening. Rain will fall steadily through Sunday and into early Monday. However, conditions will change rapidly as temperatures plunge Monday morning, creating a potential flash freeze as all that rainfall quickly freezes on roads and other surfaces.

Later on Monday, strong wind gusts will combine with steady, moderate snowfall around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Blizzard conditions could develop during the afternoon and evening as visibility drops and blowing snow becomes intense.

The storm will begin to take shape late Sunday morning as the first bands of precipitation spread into Northeastern Ontario and parts of Southwestern Ontario. This will initially include some light freezing rain extending from London through Kitchener and Barrie.

Sunday afternoon will be heavily dependent on the position of the freezing line, which is expected to slowly expand northeastward. Areas to the southwest will gradually climb above freezing and escape the worst of the icing, while regions farther northeast remain locked below zero.

By around midday, most of Central and Eastern Ontario is expected to remain well below freezing. Higher elevation areas northwest of the GTA will hover close to the freezing mark, including Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph and Orangeville. How long the cold air remains trapped at the surface will play a major role in how impactful the icing becomes in places like the Kitchener area.

Meanwhile, Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, will already be sitting in the mid single digits. Heavy rain will be ongoing here, but there will be no winter storm impacts during the day on Sunday.

As Sunday afternoon progresses, the freezing rain shield will expand northward into the North Bay area and the Ottawa Valley. The heaviest icing during this time is expected to focus around Lake Simcoe.

Locations such as Bracebridge, Lindsay, Orillia, Peterborough, Barrie, York Region, Kitchener and Orangeville appear likely to see the worst icing on Sunday afternoon. Precipitation rates will be quite heavy, allowing ice to accumulate rapidly on roads, trees and power lines.

At the same time, Southwestern Ontario, including the Niagara region, will see heavy rain, with some embedded non-severe thunderstorms possible. Rainfall totals could be significant, with some localized areas exceeding 50mm by Monday morning.

Flooding could be a concern as frozen ground has a lower ability to absorb the rain.

As we move into Sunday evening, the freezing rain zone will become very expansive as the system rapidly intensifies. Intense icing is expected from Sault Ste. Marie through Sudbury and North Bay and into Central and Eastern Ontario.

Meanwhile, colder and more entrenched air across Northeastern Ontario will allow precipitation to switch over to heavy snow. Areas from Wawa to Kapuskasing will see snowfall rates increase significantly.

By late Sunday evening, uncertainty will increase across southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario as temperatures hover very close to the freezing mark. This includes Barrie, Orillia, Muskoka, the Kawarthas, Peterborough and Kingston. If cold air proves even slightly more resilient than currently expected, these regions could remain below freezing overnight and continue to experience ice storm conditions.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, it will feel almost surreal for late December, with temperatures climbing into the double digits even around midnight.

Overnight Sunday into early Monday, heavy snowfall will expand farther south across Northeastern Ontario as colder air continues to advance. Areas including Sault Ste. Marie, Timmins and the Cochrane corridor are expected to transition from freezing rain to heavy snow.

This transition is especially concerning for the power grid, as heavy snow may accumulate on top of ice-coated trees and power lines. That combination could lead to significant damage, particularly in more remote and heavily forested areas.

For the Sudbury to Ottawa Valley corridor, freezing rain is expected to continue through the overnight hours with ice accumulation steadily increasing. This region is likely to see some of the worst overall impacts due to the length of time spent under freezing rain.

By late Monday morning, the next phase of the storm will unfold in the form of a flash freeze across Deep Southwestern Ontario. Rapidly falling temperatures will cause any remaining moisture to freeze quickly on untreated surfaces, creating extremely hazardous travel conditions.

As freezing rain ends across Central and Eastern Ontario and temperatures drop by Monday afternoon, the true extent of the damage will become clear. Current data suggests the hardest hit areas may include Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Haliburton, Bancroft, Tweed, Kaladar, Renfrew, Perth and Ottawa. Ice accretion in these regions may range from 15 to 20mm, with localized pockets potentially approaching 25mm.

In the Ottawa Valley, temperatures may not rise above freezing at all before the flash freeze arrives. This would lock ice in place for an extended period, worsening impacts. Farther south, a brief window above freezing may help slightly reduce overall damage.

A broader area of Central and Eastern Ontario, along with higher elevations northwest of the GTA and parts of Northeastern Ontario, can expect between 10 and 15mm of ice. This includes Brockville, Kitchener, Guelph, Newmarket, Barrie, Muskoka, Parry Sound, North Bay, Sudbury and Sault Ste. Marie.

Ice amounts will decrease closer to Lake Ontario and away from higher terrain. Between 5 and 10mm is possible from Kingston through the northern GTA and higher elevations around Hamilton and Grimsby. Less than 5mm is expected for Oshawa, Mississauga, Hamilton and Meaford. Little to no icing is expected near Lake Huron and Lake Ontario, where temperatures remain above freezing for most of the event.

While freezing rain will end, hazardous conditions will continue. By late Monday morning, rain will change to heavy snow around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Strengthening winds of 70 to 90 km/h will create dangerous travel conditions and likely meet blizzard criteria.

Combined with the flash freeze, widespread road closures are likely east of Lake Huron and into Northeastern Ontario. Travel should be avoided in these regions.

The strongest wind gusts are expected during the morning and afternoon on Monday before slowly easing in the evening. Areas exposed to the lakes will see the worst winds, with gusts of 95 to 110 km/h possible across the Niagara region and into Prince Edward County.

Near damaging gusts of 85 to 95 km/h are possible along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Kingston through the GTA and Hamilton, as well as along the Lake Erie and Lake Huron shorelines and southeast of Georgian Bay into Simcoe County and Orangeville.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario and southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, peak gusts of 75 to 85 km/h are expected. Farther north, including the Ottawa Valley, gusts will generally range from 65 to 75 km/h. While lower, these winds may cause greater damage due to occurring after significant ice accumulation.

Conditions will remain treacherous through Monday afternoon with strong winds and persistent snowfall, especially near the lakes, where blizzard conditions continue.

Snowfall totals associated with the main system will wrap up by Tuesday morning. Central Ontario and parts of Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron can expect 5 to 15cm of snow, with localized totals exceeding 15cm near Kincardine, Hanover and Owen Sound due to lake enhancement.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, snowfall amounts will generally range from 2 to 5cm.

In Northern Ontario, snowfall totals will be far more significant. The highest amounts are expected in Cochrane, Timmins, Chapleau and Kirkland Lake, where totals of 50 to 75cm are possible between Sunday evening and Tuesday morning.

A broader swath of Northeastern Ontario, including Wawa and Temiskaming Shores, may see 30 to 50cm. Areas such as Elliot Lake, Sault Ste. Marie and Kapuskasing could receive 20 to 30cm, while North Bay, Sudbury and Manitoulin Island are expected to pick up between 10 and 20cm.

December 26, 2025

Boxing Day Winter Storm Poised to Deliver Ice Storm Risk and Heavy Snow to Southern Ontario on Friday

December 26, 2025/ Brennen Perry

With Christmas now behind us, the focus turns to the final stretch of 2025 as we approach New Year’s next Thursday. And it’s looking like the last seven days of the year will be anything but quiet when it comes to the weather across Southern Ontario.

That active pattern becomes clear very quickly with a looming Boxing Day winter storm expected to bring a messy mix of precipitation. Some areas will see periods of heavy snowfall, while others could be dealing with a potentially damaging ice storm with prolonged freezing rain through much of the day.

For much of Central Ontario, along with parts of the Golden Horseshoe and into portions of Southeastern Ontario, the primary concern will be snowfall. Widespread totals in the 10 to 20 cm range are possible by the end of Friday. The Ottawa Valley is expected to remain on the lower end, generally staying under the 10 cm mark.

The forecast becomes more complicated through Southwestern Ontario, extending through Hamilton and into the Niagara Region. Here, a mix of snow and ice pellets is expected, which will limit snowfall totals but still create hazardous travel conditions.

The freezing rain risk has shifted slightly northward in the latest model guidance, as warmer air aloft is now expected to push deeper into Southern Ontario than earlier projections suggested. This places the Sarnia to London corridor in the bullseye for the highest ice accretion. Freezing rain totals of 10 to 15 mm are possible, which could result in significant power outages and very icy road conditions.

Beyond Friday, attention is already turning to another slow-moving system expected to arrive Sunday and linger into Monday. This system appears to have access to much more moisture compared to Friday’s storm, raising the concern for a prolonged period of freezing rain that could last anywhere from 12 to 24 hours.

What adds to the concern is that current model guidance is focusing this next threat over parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, the same areas that were hardest hit by last winter’s major ice storm. There is still uncertainty with the exact track, and it could shift north or south, but it is something we are watching very closely.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, the immediate focus remains on Friday’s storm. Precipitation is expected to begin during the early to mid-morning hours as bands move in from the west. Light to moderate snow will spread into Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, Muskoka and the GTA during this time.

For Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, light freezing rain is expected to begin by mid-morning. Precipitation may be somewhat scattered at first but will steadily increase in coverage and intensity as the morning progresses.

By late morning, the worst conditions should be underway, with heavy icing ongoing around Chatham, Sarnia and London. Travel conditions in these areas are expected to deteriorate quickly.

Further north and east, heavy snow will be the main concern across Muskoka, Simcoe County, Peterborough and the eastern GTA, including the City of Toronto.

Between the freezing rain to the southwest and the heavy snow to the north and east, a corridor of ice pellets is expected to develop from the Lake Huron shoreline through Kitchener and into Hamilton.

Poor conditions will persist into Friday afternoon, with steady snowfall continuing across Central Ontario into Kingston. Wind gusts approaching 40 km/h may lead to localized blowing snow, further reducing visibility at times.

The ice pellet zone may also push further into the GTA, with Toronto potentially switching over to ice pellets for a time. This would limit snowfall totals and keep them closer to the 10 cm range.

Sarnia and London are expected to remain locked into freezing rain through much of the afternoon. There may be some hope for the Chatham area, where temperatures could briefly rise just above freezing and allow a changeover to rain by mid-afternoon. However, this is right on the line and could still go either way. Windsor and Leamington are expected to remain solidly in the rain zone.

The system is expected to gradually wind down later Friday afternoon and into the early evening. Precipitation will taper off first across western areas, then slowly come to an end across the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario by late evening.

Based on the latest data, the highest ice storm concern has been focused on the Sarnia, Lambton, Middlesex and London corridor. While there is still some disagreement on exact intensity, the potential exists for ice accretion exceeding 10 mm, with localized amounts approaching 15 mm.

Communities included in this higher risk zone include Wallaceburg, Sarnia, Petrolia, Thamesville, Lambton Shores, Grand Bend, St. Thomas and London.

Across Essex County, the highest ice accretion is expected in the northern portions of the county, including Windsor and Tilbury. These areas could see 5 to 10 mm of ice before a changeover to rain. Closer to the Lake Erie shoreline, including Leamington, icing should be minimal, generally under 2 mm, as temperatures rise above freezing more quickly.

Further north, freezing rain amounts will be reduced as ice pellets dominate initially, with freezing rain gradually mixing in later. Locations such as Lucan, Exeter, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Simcoe, Port Colborne and Fort Erie could see a faster transition to freezing rain, with 5 to 10 mm of ice possible following a few hours of ice pellets.

For Huron and Perth counties, including Kitchener, Brantford and Niagara Falls, ice pellets are expected to linger longer. This will limit freezing rain to only a few hours near the end of the storm, with ice accretion generally in the 2 to 5 mm range. Less than 2 mm of icing is expected for Hamilton, Guelph and southern Grey-Bruce.

On the snowfall side of the storm, the highest totals are expected to range from 10 to 20 cm across Northeastern Ontario, down into Central Ontario and parts of Eastern Ontario.

This includes areas such as Sudbury, North Bay, Parry Sound, Muskoka, Simcoe County, York Region, Toronto, Durham Region, the Kawarthas, Peterborough and Kingston.

Lower snowfall totals are expected in the Ottawa Valley, where amounts of 2 to 5 cm are forecast for Ottawa and 5 to 10 cm from Bancroft into Brockville. This is due to the core of the system’s moisture remaining further south.

South of the heaviest snow band, totals will decrease as ice pellets mix in later in the storm. Grey-Bruce, Orangeville, Guelph and the western GTA are currently expected to see 5 to 10 cm, though some model solutions suggest even less if mixing becomes more dominant.

Even lower snowfall totals are expected east of Lake Huron into Hamilton and Niagara, where less than 5 cm is forecast as ice pellets and freezing rain become the primary precipitation types.

Once this system exits Friday night, Saturday should bring a brief period of calmer weather. However, that break will be short-lived, as another potentially high-impact winter storm is expected to approach as early as Sunday, possibly arriving in multiple waves.

The overall setup supports the potential for a prolonged area of freezing rain that could remain locked in place into Monday. This raises concern for a significant ice storm event, potentially similar in nature to last winter’s devastating storm across Central and Eastern Ontario.

Those same regions are once again in the early bullseye. While there is still time for this forecast to change, this is the type of setup where residents should begin thinking ahead and preparing for the possibility of extended power outages if the scenario does not improve.

We will continue to monitor this closely and will have a more detailed update once we get through Friday’s storm.

December 24, 2025

Potential Boxing Day Winter Storm Targets Southern Ontario With Significant Freezing Rain Risk and Up to 15-20cm of Snow

December 24, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While winter weather has mostly taken a breather across Southern Ontario over the past week, things are about to turn active again as we head into the final days of 2025.

That change begins on Boxing Day with a messy winter system expected to slide through Southern Ontario. This system will bring a wide range of hazards, including the threat of significant freezing rain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and more widespread snowfall across much of the rest of the region.

There are still some question marks surrounding this storm, particularly when it comes to how strong it ultimately becomes. Some lower-resolution models show a fairly robust system with plenty of moisture to work with. At the same time, higher resolution guidance that is now coming into range is hinting at some drier pockets, which could cause this system to underperform in spots.

Complicating matters further is the fact that this system has the characteristics of an Alberta Clipper. Clippers are notorious for being difficult to forecast since they often lack a deep source of moisture, and small changes can make a big difference in precipitation type and totals.

What we do know at this point is that impacts will vary significantly across Southern Ontario. The highest risk area continues to be Deep Southwestern Ontario, especially the Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia region, which currently sits in the bullseye for prolonged freezing rain.

In these areas, sustained freezing rain could lead to substantial ice accretion on roads, trees and power lines. This would result in dangerous travel conditions and an increased risk of power outages. With over 10mm of icing possible, there is also concern for widespread tree damage as branches struggle under the weight of the ice.

Further north, from areas east of Lake Huron through the Greater Toronto Area and into Central and Eastern Ontario, the primary precipitation type is expected to be snow. Snow will fall steadily through much of the day on Friday with general accumulations of 5 to 15cm by the end of the day. Locally higher amounts approaching 20cm are possible west of Lake Ontario around the Toronto area due to lake enhancement.

The first bands of precipitation are expected to arrive early to mid-morning on Friday, spreading across Lake Huron into Southwestern Ontario. As the system moves in, it will encounter a stubborn layer of cold air near the surface across Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham and Sarnia.

At the same time, warmer air will surge in above the surface, creating a classic setup for freezing rain. This warm layer aloft melts the snow into rain, which then freezes on contact with cold surfaces at the ground.

**850MB TEMPS (1.5KM ABOVE GROUND)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The biggest challenge with events like this is determining how far north and how deep that warm layer extends. This is the key factor that decides whether precipitation falls as ice pellets or as freezing rain.

Temperatures roughly 1.5km above the surface vary considerably between models. The Canadian model is more aggressive, pushing the warm layer farther north into Southwestern Ontario and even as far as London.

Overall, model consensus places the freezing line somewhere near a Sarnia to London corridor. Areas south of this line are more likely to see freezing rain, while areas to the north will see a mix of ice pellets and snow.

By the early afternoon, heavier snow will begin spreading into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe as precipitation from Northern Ontario moves southeast across Georgian Bay. At the same time, freezing rain will be ongoing around Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia.

There are indications that temperatures may slowly climb above freezing for southern Essex County, including Leamington and eventually Windsor. There is still disagreement on the exact timing of this changeover, but it appears most likely sometime during the early to mid-afternoon.

If temperatures do rise above freezing, freezing rain would switch to plain rain, and any ice accretion would begin to melt. How quickly this happens will be critical in determining overall impacts. If the warmup is delayed until later in the day or temperatures stubbornly remain below freezing before dropping Friday night again, impacts could be significantly worse.

For areas like Chatham-Kent, Sarnia and St. Thomas, there is growing concern that temperatures may remain below freezing for much of the event. This would allow ice to accumulate for a prolonged period, with over 10mm of accretion possible. Ice amounts of this magnitude are capable of bringing down tree limbs and power lines, potentially leading to power outages that could last for several days.

By mid-afternoon, the heaviest snow will be pushing through the Golden Horseshoe. Some models are showing the potential for lake enhancement along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Niagara through Hamilton and into Toronto. If this develops, snowfall rates could briefly spike to 3 to 5cm per hour compared to the more general 1 to 2cm per hour elsewhere.

It is also important to note that ice pellets may mix in at times, which can limit snowfall totals since ice pellets are denser than snow. This is most likely for areas such as London, Kitchener, Hamilton and Niagara, where conditions are more supportive of mixed precipitation. Areas closer to Toronto and farther north into Central Ontario should see more consistent snow.

Light to moderate snow will also spread into Eastern Ontario by the afternoon and continue into the evening before tapering off around midnight. Confidence in snowfall totals here is lower, but amounts in the 5 to 10cm range appear possible by the end of the day.

While there is decent agreement on the overall track of this system, fluctuations are still very likely. Freezing rain events are among the most difficult to forecast, and even small temperature changes can have major impacts.

At this time, the highest confidence for the worst impacts remains across the Chatham, Windsor and St. Thomas area, where a persistent band of freezing rain is expected to set up for much of the day on Friday. Some models show up to 20mm of liquid precipitation, though not all of that would freeze on surfaces. For now, we are forecasting over 10mm of ice accretion, with the understanding that an overachieving scenario is still on the table.

For southern Essex County, including Leamington and possibly southern Windsor, ice accretion of 5 to 10mm is possible before a changeover to rain. Because of this transition, overall impacts should be lower compared to areas farther north, where freezing rain may last longer.

Farther north, from Sarnia through London and into Norfolk County, precipitation may begin as ice pellets in the morning before transitioning to freezing rain later in the afternoon or early evening. Ice accretion here could range from 3 to 8mm, depending on how quickly this transition occurs.

A corridor stretching from Goderich through Kitchener, Hamilton and into the Niagara region is expected to start with heavier snow Friday afternoon. Mixing with ice pellets later in the day could reduce snowfall totals, with most areas seeing around 5 to 10cm by the end of the event.

Areas that remain predominantly snow from start to finish include Grey-Bruce, much of Central Ontario, Eastern Ontario and the eastern portions of the GTA. Snowfall totals here should generally range from 10 to 15cm, with localized amounts up to 20cm. In Eastern Ontario, especially closer to the Quebec border, totals may struggle to reach 10cm, making 5 to 10cm a more realistic expectation.

We will continue to monitor the latest data closely and will have a more detailed and refined forecast on Thursday night. That update will provide a clearer breakdown of precipitation types and expected amounts. Be sure to check back for the final forecast.

December 21, 2025

White Christmas Locked In for Parts of Southern Ontario, While Others Face the Risk of a Green Christmas for 2025

December 21, 2025/ Brennen Perry

As the big day approaches this Thursday, many across Southern Ontario are starting to ask the big question. Will we wake up to that picture-perfect White Christmas, or will the Grinch sneak in at the last minute and snatch it away from right under our noses (and our carrots)?

In some parts of Southern Ontario, especially the snowbelt regions, it might feel like a White Christmas is already wrapped up and sitting under the tree. These areas were absolutely pummelled by relentless snow squalls earlier this month, leaving behind an impressive snowpack.

But for others, it has been a very different story. Some regions managed to dodge the worst of the snow so far this season, and whatever snow did fall has largely melted away thanks to a recent stretch of milder weather.

That sets the stage for a classic Christmas weather showdown. The Grinch, helped along by a few Heat Miser inspired temperature spikes, will try to erase what little snow remains. Jack Frost, however, is waiting in the wings and is expected to take over closer to Christmas. This makes a weak system expected Tuesday into Wednesday the key player, potentially delivering a last minute chance at a White Christmas for some areas.

**CURRENT SNOWFALL DEPTH (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

We begin by looking at the existing snowpack, which is often the biggest clue in determining where a White Christmas is all but guaranteed. The most impressive snowpack is found east of Georgian Bay through Simcoe County and into Muskoka, Haliburton and Bancroft.

Model estimates suggest a solid 10 to 25cm of snow on the ground here. These models are fairly low resolution and likely underestimate reality, especially since much of this snow fell during intense lake effect events.

There is also a respectable snowpack of around 5 to 15cm in the higher elevations of Southwestern Ontario, particularly northeast of London. These areas have taken the brunt of snow squall activity several times already this month. Meanwhile, snowpack east of Lake Huron has been noticeably reduced by the recent mild spell.

Outside of those regions, there really is not much snowpack left that can meaningfully contribute to a White Christmas. This includes Deep Southwestern Ontario, the Niagara Region, much of the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley.

**estimated max temp on tuesday** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first challenge arrives early this week as temperatures steadily rise above freezing for more than 24 hours. The warmest day looks to be Tuesday, with daytime highs climbing above freezing across much of Southern Ontario, with the main exception being parts of the Ottawa Valley.

Some areas could even push into the mid to upper single digits, especially in Deep Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. That is more than enough warmth to put a serious dent in any remaining snow.

Rain may also enter the picture early Tuesday in some areas. Combined with above-freezing temperatures, this will further erode minor snowpack. At that point, the only snow that is truly expected to survive is east of Georgian Bay. For many other areas, including east of Lake Huron, the final outcome will depend heavily on the last 36 hours leading up to Christmas morning.

**NEW SNOWFALL BY CHRISTMAS MORNING (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The system moving through on Tuesday is expected to bring light snowfall across Eastern Ontario. With temperatures expected to remain below freezing afterward, this snowfall should help lock in a White Christmas for the Ottawa area, even though there is currently very little snow on the ground. A general 5 to 10cm by Wednesday should be more than enough to tip the scales.

In Southwestern Ontario, however, the outlook is not as festive. Much of the snowfall associated with this system is expected to fall before temperatures rise and precipitation transitions to rain. Any snow that does fall will likely melt away quickly.

The one exception may be the higher elevations east of Lake Huron, where temperatures could hover near freezing just long enough for the snowpack to cling on until Christmas morning. Even there, it will be very close.

**estimated temp on CHRISTMAS MORNING** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By Christmas morning itself, current indications suggest many across Southern Ontario will wake up to below freezing temperatures. That will help preserve whatever snow remains on the ground. This includes much of Central and Eastern Ontario, as well as higher elevations northwest of the GTA, such as Orangeville and Kitchener.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline into parts of the GTA, temperatures are expected to be slightly above freezing. With very little existing snowpack to work with, those milder conditions are likely to melt away any lingering hope of a White Christmas.

Putting all of this together, we have created our preliminary White Christmas forecast. This is not the final word and adjustments are possible as we get closer to Christmas morning. Several of the uncertainties mentioned above will resolve themselves over the next couple of days, giving us a clearer picture than the models can provide right now.

Our highest confidence area, where we can almost guarantee a White Christmas with a 90 percent chance, covers a wide swath of Central Ontario, including Muskoka, Bancroft and northern and western Simcoe County. These regions have a deep, well-established snowpack. East of Lake Huron, we also assign a 90 percent chance for Hanover and much of Huron and Perth Counties, where repeated lake effect snow has buried the landscape.

Outside of that core region, we currently have a 75 percent chance for much of Eastern Ontario, along with areas such as Peterborough, Barrie and Kitchener. Confidence is fairly strong here, thanks to the existing snow southeast of Georgian Bay and the expected system snowfall in Eastern Ontario on Tuesday.

That said, melting remains a concern for Barrie and Kitchener if temperatures rise a bit more than expected on Tuesday. For Eastern Ontario, confidence also depends on the system delivering as forecast, so we want to see that snow on the ground before bumping probabilities any higher.

Closer to Lake Ontario, the dream of a winter wonderland starts to fade. From Kingston through the north GTA corridor and extending into London, we currently place the odds at around 50 percent. Along the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline, including much of the GTA, things become even more questionable with only about a 25 percent chance of a White Christmas.

For those in the Niagara Region and Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, it may take a true Christmas miracle. Unless a last-minute snowmaker slides through just before Christmas morning, it looks like the Grinch may win this one.

We will continue to monitor the forecast closely and provide updates as Christmas morning draws nearer. Keep checking back, because in the weather, especially at Christmas, surprises are always possible.

December 13, 2025

Southern Ontario’s Never-Ending Winter Continues This Weekend as Squalls Threaten to Bring Up to 50cm of More Snow

December 13, 2025/ Brennen Perry

With a steady parade of system after system, along with lake effect snow in between, it’s certainly understandable that some parts of Southern Ontario are getting pretty fed up with all the snow. The snow continues to pile up, especially across the snowbelt regions!

It was only a few days ago that the Barrie area was slammed with intense lake effect snow, with up to 70cm reported in the hardest hit community of Angus. And that doesn’t even include what was already on the ground before this round of squalls moved through.

Regions east of Lake Huron, including Grey, Bruce, Huron and Perth counties, have also seen their fair share of snow so far this winter, with frequent lake effect events adding to an already deep snowpack.

Fortunately for snow lovers, and perhaps unfortunately for everyone else, the squalls are far from finished. The lakes remain wide open, and we are just getting into the heart of colder Arctic air. That combination will continue to provide plenty of fuel for additional rounds of lake effect snow in the coming weeks.

The next round of squalls is just around the corner, with activity expected to ramp up again as early as Saturday morning. The good news for areas that were recently hammered by the Georgian Bay squall, including Barrie and Wasaga Beach, is that you should catch a bit of a break this weekend. The bulk of the activity will focus farther north and west.

Those east of Lake Huron, including Huron, Bruce and Grey counties, are not as lucky. Lake effect snow off Lake Huron is expected to target these areas once again with repeated rounds of snow through the weekend.

This is shaping up to be a multi-day lake effect event, with squalls persisting through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Winds are expected to be somewhat unstable, which means the squalls will tend to drift around rather than remain locked over one specific area. Because of this, it’s unlikely we’ll see extreme localized totals like the 50 to 75cm that fell southwest of Barrie earlier this week.

That said, snowfall totals will still add up. The hardest hit areas, including Parry Sound, Bracebridge, Tobermory, Owen Sound, Hanover, Collingwood, Goderich and Grand Bend, can generally expect 25 to 40cm. Some pockets, particularly across Muskoka, could push closer to the 50cm mark.

The event is expected to get underway early Saturday morning as a brief southwesterly wind develops. A weak system moving through the region will become enhanced by the lakes, producing short bursts of heavy snow.

This could impact areas northeast of Georgian Bay as well as regions northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Places like Parry Sound, North Bay, Niagara and Kingston could see a quick 5 to 10cm early Saturday morning, along with near-zero visibility at times.

As that system exits, winds will become more westerly, shifting the focus back to Georgian Bay and Lake Huron through Saturday afternoon and evening.

Current model guidance shows a fairly potent and narrow band setting up near the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula, stretching across Georgian Bay and coming inland near Port Carling and Bracebridge. Keep in mind that even small shifts in wind direction could push the heaviest snow several dozen kilometres north or south.

Very poor to hazardous driving conditions are expected along the Highway 400 and Highway 11 corridors in this area. Highway closures are not out of the question, especially given how quickly conditions can deteriorate.

Additionally, somewhat weaker bands are also expected to develop off Lake Huron, impacting the Owen Sound to Goderich corridor. There remains uncertainty regarding exactly where these bands will set up and whether they consolidate into a more dominant squall.

Later Saturday, a subtle wind shift will cause the main Georgian Bay squall affecting Muskoka to briefly drift south into Simcoe County. This could bring a short period of heavy snow overnight Saturday to Midland, Orillia and Barrie. Accumulation here should be limited, generally around 5 to 10cm, as the squall will be moving through fairly quickly.

A similar evolution will occur east of Lake Huron, with the squall drifting from Tobermory down through the Bruce Peninsula and into southern Bruce and Grey counties overnight. This activity will continue as the squall settles farther south and west of London under a more north-northwest flow.

By Sunday morning, the strongest lake effect activity is expected to be found off Lake Huron, affecting the Grand Bend to London corridor. At this point, it appears the core of the squall should remain just west of London, impacting areas like Strathroy, though brief pushes into the city are still possible.

The Georgian Bay squall will temporarily weaken as winds become less favourable for a strong lake fetch. This should restrict activity mainly to shoreline areas near Meaford and Collingwood for a time.

That break will be short-lived. By Sunday evening, increasing winds will allow lake effect snow off Georgian Bay to intensify once again. Some models show moderate to heavy snow developing from Meaford through Collingwood and extending toward the Orangeville region overnight, before the lake effect machine is shut down by an approaching system on Monday morning.

Lake Huron squalls will continue through this time, remaining heavy at times across Huron County, Grand Bend and areas west of London. As with earlier periods, most of the heaviest snow should stay just to the west of the city.

Because the squalls will be shifting around, snowfall will be more evenly distributed across a wider area. We aren’t expecting extremely high localized totals, but many communities will still share in the heavy snowfall. By the end of the weekend, most areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could see totals ranging from 25 to 50cm.

The usual lake effect disclaimer applies. Some locations will inevitably end up just outside the heaviest bands, but the contrast should be less dramatic this time since most snowbelt areas will be impacted at some point.

The main target zones include areas east of Georgian Bay, such as Parry Sound, Rosseau, Port Carling, Bracebridge and Port Sydney, along with much of Bruce, Grey, Huron and Middlesex counties east and southeast of Lake Huron. This includes communities like Tobermory, Wiarton, Lion’s Head, Owen Sound, Meaford, Collingwood, Flesherton, Hanover, Chatsworth, Port Elgin, Kincardine, Mildmay, Point Clark, Wingham, Goderich, Clinton, Exeter, Lucan, Grand Bend and Strathroy.

Snowfall totals will drop off quickly outside of these regions, as lake effect snow remains highly localized. However, as mentioned earlier, a brief 5 to 10cm is still possible Saturday morning for parts of Niagara and the Kingston area due to lake-enhanced snow from the passing system.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, expect around 2 to 5cm from that system on Saturday, with most locations likely closer to the lower end of that range outside of the snowbelt.

December 10, 2025

Barrie Area to Be Buried in Up to 40 to 75 cm of Snow on Thursday as Arctic Air Fuels Dangerous Snow Squalls

December 10, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Snowfall from the Alberta Clipper that slid through Southern Ontario earlier on Wednesday is beginning to taper off. The system has left its mark across the region with a widespread 10 to 20cm of snow in some areas, while others saw a slushy mix.

While the clipper may be done, the snowfall story is not. As the system pulls away, it ushers in a polar blast of cold air overnight on Wednesday. This air, combined with strong northwesterly winds, will kick the lake effect snow machine back into gear off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Intense snow squalls across Simcoe, Huron and Perth counties throughout Thursday are likely to create dangerous conditions. Frigid wind chills paired with near-zero visibility will make travel extremely difficult and even life-threatening if you become stranded.

The Georgian Bay squall is expected to be particularly intense. A narrow corridor from Wasaga Beach through southwest Barrie, including Angus, Innisfil and into Bradford, may see the band lock in place for more than six hours. Snowfall rates could exceed 5cm per hour.

Localized totals around the Barrie area could approach 50 to 75cm in the hardest hit pocket. Some high resolution models even suggest 100cm is not completely off the table.

East of Lake Huron, activity will be persistent from Thursday morning through the evening. The lake effect here appears more spread out rather than focused on one specific pocket. The heaviest totals are expected across Huron and Perth counties, where up to 50cm is locally possible.

As of Wednesday evening, we are already seeing some activity begin ramping up off the southeast shoreline of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. This will continue to organize after midnight into the early hours of Thursday.

By early morning, we expect the most focused squalls to target the Goderich to London corridor off Lake Huron and the Collingwood to Bradford stretch off Georgian Bay.

Keep in mind, this is a rough idea from the models, and the exact placement can shift if the wind direction changes even slightly.

By the time the morning commute begins around 6 AM, snow squall activity will intensify as the Georgian Bay band becomes extremely narrow and focused. Some model runs have it stretching from Wasaga Beach through Angus and into the Innisfil to the Newmarket area.

There remains uncertainty in how much snow the City of Barrie itself will receive. The gradient between limited snow and a huge dumping will be very tight. The south and west ends are most likely to see major impacts, although it would not take much of a shift for the band to slide directly into the city.

The Lake Huron activity will begin to spread out with moderate snowfall covering much of Huron and Perth counties, including Goderich, Wingham, Stratford and Listowel. Because the band is more diffuse, there will not be one intense pocket as we expect with the Georgian Bay squall.

**ESTIMATED WIND CHILL** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

A major factor with this round of squalls that makes the situation more dangerous is the very cold wind chills. When you wake up Thursday, wind chills will make it feel like the -20s. Combined with squalls at the same time, the risk to anyone stranded on the roads increases significantly.

Aside from the cold creating hazards, it will also boost snowfall rates. Colder air produces drier, fluffier snow, which allows the same amount of moisture to create a larger volume of accumulation.

Little will change heading into the late morning as the Georgian Bay squall remains locked in place near the Barrie area. The band could edge far enough north to put the city core into the bullseye. Keswick may also be brought into the heavy snow as the band wobbles.

For the Lake Huron squall, the band may briefly become more focused as a single strong line cutting through Goderich and into Stratford and Woodstock. Depending on slight track shifts, Kitchener or Hamilton could also be affected at times.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate further into the afternoon. The Georgian Bay squall appears to strengthen with hourly snowfall rates easily exceeding 5cm and possibly pushing 10cm. At this point, the most intense pocket is shown just southwest of Barrie, with Angus being hit hardest.

The Lake Huron squall will also become more organized with an impressive fetch stretching all the way toward Lake Erie and impacting Woodstock and Norfolk.

There is significant concern for the Hwy 400 corridor during the afternoon and evening commute from just south of Barrie to roughly Aurora. This section of highway will likely become snow covered with road crews struggling to keep up with extreme snowfall rates. Combined with whiteout conditions, travel in this zone should be avoided unless absolutely necessary.

As we head into the evening and just past midnight, the squalls will retreat closer to the lakeshores as winds weaken and moisture supply cuts off. This will lead to activity tapering to lake effect flurries overnight into Friday morning.

As always with snow squalls, snowfall forecasts should be taken with a large grain of salt. While models are in good agreement on placement and intensity, nothing is guaranteed as conditions need to align perfectly.

With that being said, we believe the hardest hit zone will be along the southeastern Georgian Bay shoreline from Wasaga Beach through Angus and into northern York Region. Barrie sits right on the edge but could easily end up inside the bullseye. Snowfall totals here are likely to exceed 40cm and may approach 75cm. Around Angus is where models show the strongest signal.

A tight gradient will set up with the north and east sides of Barrie, along with Keswick, Bradford and Collingwood, likely seeing 25 to 40cm of snow.

East of Lake Huron including Kincardine, Minto, Point Clark, Wingham, Listowel, Mitchell, Stratford, Exeter and Goderich, totals of 25 to 40cm are expected. Localized amounts up to 55cm are possible if a squall locks in place for several hours.

Totals of 15 to 25cm are possible for Midland and into central York Region including Newmarket and Aurora as well as Durham Region around Uxbridge. These areas will see occasional bursts of heavy snow near the edge of the main bands.

Southern Bruce and Grey counties along with Wellington County including Arthur and Oxford County may also see 15 to 25cm but totals depend on how far inland the bands extend.

Between 5 and 15cm is possible across the rest of York and Durham Region as well as northern Simcoe County including Orillia, Owen Sound, Shelburne, Fergus, Kitchener, Brantford and London. These locations sit farther from the core activity so most will see closer to 5cm with higher amounts only if a band stretches farther inland.

Less than 5cm is expected outside the snowbelt regions including Eastern Ontario, Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

December 09, 2025

Back-to-Back Clippers To Deliver Up to 20cm of Snow Across Southern Ontario by Wednesday

December 09, 2025/ Brennen Perry

It has certainly been feeling a lot like winter over the last few weeks across Southern Ontario as the snow continues to pile up. Several clippers and rounds of lake effect snow have already delivered a healthy start to the season.

That trend shows no signs of slowing down as we enter the second week of December.

An Alberta clipper duo is set to slide through Southern Ontario back-to-back over the coming days. The second clipper arriving on Wednesday is expected to be the stronger of the two. Current indications suggest heavy snow combined with strong wind gusts may heavily impact the Wednesday morning commute.

By the time the second clipper wraps up late Wednesday, combined snowfall totals are expected to range from 10 to 20cm across a wide swath of Central, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario. Localized totals up to 25cm cannot be ruled out, especially if there is some lake enhancement.

Lower totals are expected along the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shorelines where temperatures may climb just enough for some rain to mix in later Wednesday morning. Around 4 to 8cm is possible for Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

In the wake of the clippers, we are also monitoring a potential prolonged snow squall risk beginning Wednesday evening and potentially continuing through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could be dealing with significant snowfall totals. There is still uncertainty regarding the exact placement of these bands.

Things will begin to kick off late Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as precipitation from our first clipper enters from the west. Widespread light to moderate snow will spread across Southwestern Ontario, the Lake Huron shoreline and into portions of Central Ontario and the GTA.

This snow is not expected to be particularly intense, although locally heavier pockets are possible through the Bruce Peninsula and into Sudbury where lake enhancement may add extra moisture to an otherwise dry system.

Steady snow will continue throughout the afternoon on Tuesday and into the evening. The story with this first clipper will be the steadiness of the snowfall rather than the intensity. Major routes should remain drivable, but expect a slower evening commute with light snow ongoing at the time.

**TOTAL SNOWFALL (CM) FROM CLIPPER #1** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

This clipper will begin to wind down later in the day on Tuesday with final amounts ranging from 2 to 8cm. The heaviest pockets will be east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For the rest of Southern Ontario, accumulation will fall on the lower end of that range.

However, do not let the lower totals by Tuesday evening lead you to let your guard down. Our next clipper is not far behind and will track toward Southern Ontario from the Midwest by late Tuesday evening.

Ahead of it, we may see a few hours of heavy snow squalls develop northeast of Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario. This could bring brief but heavy snow to areas like Parry Sound, Muskoka and Kingston.

Conditions will really begin to deteriorate with the second clipper as the bulk of the precipitation spreads into Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe right at the height of the Wednesday morning commute.

Some wet snow or even rain may mix in along the Lake Ontario and Erie shorelines which could suppress totals around the GTA and Niagara region.

The key difference with this clipper compared to the one 24 hours earlier is that the snowfall will arrive in a much shorter window instead of being spread throughout the day.

Hourly snowfall rates may reach 2 to 4cm through the London to Kitchener corridor. While the intense snow will not last long, just a few hours of that kind of snowfall can add up fast.

Winds are also expected to gust up to 60 km/h which combined with heavy snowfall could produce blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility. The morning commute is likely to be heavily impacted and school bus cancellations are quite possible on Wednesday.

The heaviest snowfall rates will not last long for Southwestern Ontario and the GTA as the 1+cm per hour rates shift into Central and Eastern Ontario by late morning.

Temperatures will also rise through the late morning and early afternoon which may allow some rain to mix in around the GTA and the Lake Erie shoreline.

And yet, that is only the beginning because as the second clipper exits the region late Wednesday, the lake effect snow machine is expected to fire back up quickly by Wednesday evening.

Current data shows a focus on the London, Huron, Grey-Bruce, Collingwood and Barrie areas Wednesday night. The lake effect risk may carry into Thursday and possibly into the weekend as very cold air settles across Southern Ontario.

It remains unclear whether the wind direction will become stable enough to allow long-lasting snow squalls, but if it does, we could be looking at staggering snowfall totals by next week.

We will have a more precise breakdown of the snow squall risk closer to Thursday once high resolution model data is available to pinpoint where the bands may focus.

Turning back to the combined snowfall totals from the two clippers, we expect a wide zone stretching across much of Central and Eastern Ontario and into Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron to end up around 10 to 20cm. There is potential for over-performance as some recent models have trended upward showing widespread 20 to 25cm. As clippers can sometimes struggle with moisture, we have undercut that slightly to better reflect the consensus.

One area where that moisture struggle may occur is southeast of Georgian Bay, including Barrie and York Region. Models show slightly lower totals of 6 to 8cm here, so we have placed those regions in a 5 to 10cm range. This 5 to 10cm zone also extends along the Hwy 401 corridor into Deep Southwestern Ontario and into the Ottawa region.

For regions directly along the Lake Ontario and Erie shorelines like Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton and St Catharines, snowfall may struggle to reach 5cm due to mixing potential and above freezing temperatures limiting accumulation.

Keep in mind that these are combined snowfall totals from both systems. Roughly 50-75 percent of the total will likely fall within a 6 hour period on Wednesday which is when conditions will be at their worst.

Additional snowfall is possible later Wednesday into Thursday with snow squall activity. Those amounts are not included in this map. A separate forecast will be issued on Wednesday for that.

December 03, 2025

Brief, Intense Snow Squalls Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Thursday With Up to 20 to 50cm Expected

December 03, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Intense but brief snow squalls are expected to return to parts of the snowbelt region around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Thursday morning with the arrival of a blast of brisk Arctic air. These squalls have the potential to bring heavy snowfall and near-zero visibility in the hardest hit areas.

Conditions are certainly ripe for more extreme, long-lasting squalls; However, the latest model data suggests this round will be cut short as shifting winds prevent the bands from locking in place for any prolonged period of time.

Snow squalls developing off Lake Huron will follow a west-northwest flow with the most intense activity aimed at the northeastern shoreline, which includes much of Grey Bruce. Another band off Georgian Bay will have a less steady flow, making the Lake Huron squall the stronger and more focused of the two.

This band is expected to remain mostly stationary through much of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon before slowly weakening later in the day. Hazardous conditions are expected in this zone with complete whiteouts, blowing snow and rapid snowfall rates of 4 to 6cm per hour.

The hardest hit areas are likely to be around Port Elgin, Kincardine and Owen Sound where a band could set up early and barely move until the afternoon as winds ease and the squall dissipates. The reach of this band may stretch inland into parts of Grey County at times, including Meaford, Chatsworth, Flesherton and Hanover. Some areas could be digging out from significant totals by the end of the day.

Meanwhile, over Georgian Bay, shifting wind directions will make things much less predictable. The squall here will likely spread snowfall over a wider area rather than focusing on one region, mainly due to the flow swinging from westerly to northwesterly throughout the day.

It will likely begin with a westerly flow during the early morning, which would start the band in southern Muskoka, including MacTier, Bala, Bracebridge and Gravenhurst. It may also extend at times into southern Haliburton and northern Kawartha Lakes.

As winds turn more northwesterly, the band will slide down along the Hwy 400 and 11 corridor into northern Simcoe County, affecting Midland, Orillia and Washago. Travel in this region during the morning and early afternoon should be avoided if possible, as conditions will be quite poor.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the intensity of this Georgian Bay band, as shifting winds tend to weaken squalls and make them less organized. If it becomes even briefly stationary, that would likely be the period where snowfall intensifies.

How long the band can hold together before winds lock into a true northwest flow will determine totals for areas such as Barrie and the southern portions of Kawartha Lakes. By the early afternoon, the squall will have sunk into Wasaga, Oro and Barrie, but once the wind shift finalizes, the band will quickly lose its structure and begin to fizzle out.

If the squall lasts only into the mid-afternoon, Barrie may end up closer to 10cm. If it somehow holds into the evening, totals closer to 30cm would be possible.

All snow squall activity is expected to taper off by Thursday evening across Southern Ontario, although some light snow may linger overnight into Friday morning in areas closer to the lakes.

For Northern Ontario, snow squalls off the southeastern shoreline of Lake Superior will develop overnight and persist through much of Thursday. Sault Ste. Marie and the Wawa region may pick up 30 to 50cm by the end of the day. That lake effect activity is expected to weaken Thursday evening as a weak system shifts the wind direction.

Snowfall totals will vary widely due to ongoing uncertainty about the exact placement and duration of the bands. Confidence is highest that the Lake Huron squall will remain more focused compared to the Georgian Bay band.

As a result, the hotspot includes Port Elgin, Owen Sound, Hanover and Chatsworth, where 30 to 50cm is expected, with some models even hinting at localized pockets approaching 60cm.

The rest of Grey and Bruce counties are looking at 15 to 30cm, although totals may vary significantly depending on how far inland the squall extends and whether it drifts south into northern Huron and Perth counties.

Areas farther south and inland, including the rest of Huron and Perth counties, Wellington, Dufferin and Collingwood can expect around 5 to 15cm, but there is still a chance for much lower amounts if the band does not stretch that far.

A large zone along the Hwy 400 and 11 corridor from MacTier and Gravenhurst in the north to Barrie in the south, including Midland, Washago, Orillia and Wasaga, is expected to see the highest totals from the Georgian Bay squall.

At this point, 15 to 30cm appears likely, although localized totals up to 40cm are possible should the squall stall for any period of time. If that occurs, the most probable region for this is somewhere between Midland and Orillia.

The rest of Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes and northern York and Durham regions can expect between 5 and 15cm, depending heavily on how far inland the Georgian Bay squall is able to stretch.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, less than 5cm is expected by the end of Thursday.

November 29, 2025

Yet More Snow on the Way for Southern Ontario With a Snowy System on Sunday Bringing Up to 10-20cm

November 29, 2025/ Brennen Perry

As many communities in the snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay are currently digging out from locally over 50cm of snow from squalls over the past two days, another snow maker is already on the way, just in time for the final days of November.

Instead of very isolated pockets seeing intense snowfall totals as we have seen with the lake effect activity, this system will spread accumulating snow across almost all of Southern Ontario. Widespread totals by the end of the weekend are expected to range from 5 to 15cm, with locally as much as 20cm in the areas that remain colder for longer.

Snowfall is expected to begin moving in from the west by late Saturday evening, starting first across Deep Southwestern Ontario. By the middle of the overnight, steady light to moderate snowfall will extend across almost all of Southern Ontario as the system further progresses into our region.

By late Sunday morning, southwesterly winds flowing across the still warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are expected to push temperatures several degrees above freezing along the northern shorelines. This may allow the last remaining few hours of precipitation to switch over to rain for some communities right along the lakeshore.

There could also be a lake effect component to this system as it departs our region to the east. As this happens later in the day on Sunday, we may see locally heavier pockets of lake effect snow develop east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, which also happens to include some of the same areas hit hard by the squalls over the last few days. This could push weekend totals into the 20 to 25cm range, especially if these bands linger longer into Sunday night.

Looking ahead to the start of the week, Monday should be fairly quiet as the lake effect activity tapers off early in the morning and the remaining flurries from the system fizzle out. It will certainly be colder with everyone seeing temperatures plunge below freezing. However, that calm weather may be short-lived.

There are early indications of another potential system sliding south of the Great Lakes region. Depending on the track, this could bring another round of heavy snow throughout the early part of Tuesday, especially for areas further southeast.

The initial bands of snowfall associated with the weekend system will begin to enter Southwestern Ontario from the west sometime just after the dinner hour on Saturday.

For most areas, the snowfall should be fairly light at first, but some models are showing the potential for several hours of heavier snowfall rates approaching 2 to 4cm per hour for Windsor, Leamington and Chatham. This could lead to a quick 5 to 10cm by the end of the night if the heavier bursts materialize.

As we head into the overnight hours, the system is expected to continue spreading eastward across Southern Ontario, with almost all areas seeing steady snowfall by the middle of the overnight.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be overly extreme, with most regions seeing less than 1cm per hour through Sunday morning. Even still, this snowfall is expected to continue for 6 to 12 hours, which will allow the totals to gradually build up.

Because the snow will be more widespread and less intense than recent squall activity, road crews should be able to keep up with the conditions on most major routes. Travel delays are still likely, so if you do need to drive, be sure to leave plenty of extra time and adjust your speed based on the conditions.

Winds are expected to pick up through the later part of Sunday morning, coming out of the southwest, and flowing across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This will push warmer air into the northern shorelines, which may allow the snow to switch over to rain directly along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines.

Due to this transition, slightly lower snowfall totals are expected here, and some areas may struggle to reach the 5cm mark. This includes the Greater Toronto Area near the lakeshore, along with Port Colborne, Norfolk County, Tillsonburg, St. Thomas and Rondeau.

The system is expected to gradually taper off through Sunday afternoon, leaving scattered flurries in its wake into the evening. This leftover precipitation is likely to be enhanced by Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through Sunday evening and into the overnight hours.

Expect an additional 5 to 10cm of snowfall on top of the system totals in the areas that see lake effect enhancement. This could push the end-of-weekend totals to locally as much as 20 to 25cm in the traditional snowbelt regions.

When it comes to the distribution of precipitation, we expect it to fall fairly evenly across the province. However, snowfall totals will vary based on temperature differences, which will influence how efficiently the snow can accumulate.

The higher snowfall totals from this event are expected in the more northern sections of Central Ontario and extending into the Sudbury and North Bay region. This includes Parry Sound, Muskoka, Algonquin Park and Bancroft.

These regions will see more sustained below freezing temperatures throughout the event, along with lake effect enhancement late Sunday. With this, we are looking at around 10 to 20cm, with locally up to 25cm possible in the heavier lake effect pockets.

A similar situation is expected east of Lake Huron and along the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands and Oak Ridges Moraine, where slightly colder temperatures will help accumulations. Expect 10 to 20cm in these areas as well, with localized totals around 25cm, especially east of Lake Huron.

Everyone else, with the exception of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, is looking at a general 5 to 10cm. Some areas could see locally up to 15cm if temperatures end up just a bit cooler than expected. This includes the rest of Southwestern Ontario into Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, the Lake Simcoe region and parts of the Ottawa Valley.

For communities exposed to the shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which includes Toronto, Oshawa, Oakville, Hamilton, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Colborne and Rondeau, snowfall totals will likely be closer to the 2 to 5cm range due to the warmer air intrusion and rain mixing during the latter part of the system.

As we look into next week, we are closely watching another potential system that could have an impact on Southern Ontario throughout the day on Tuesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact track, with the latest model runs shifting it slightly further north, which would increase impacts across a wider portion of the region. However, it could easily shift back south.

At this point, we can say there is a decent chance of 5cm or more across a wide stretch of Southern Ontario, with the highest probability being further southeast, including the Niagara region and communities along the St. Lawrence River. Be prepared for possible impacts to the Tuesday morning commute, including the potential for school bus cancellations if the system trends stronger.

Expect possible impacts to the morning commute on Tuesday, including possible school bus cancellations, should we see a stronger system.

November 27, 2025

BIG CHANGES Coming to Environment Canada’s Alerts Beginning Today

November 27, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is making big changes to the way it issues weather alerts, in an attempt to make them easier to understand at a glance.

Starting today, Wednesday, November 26th, 2025, the new system will use Yellow, Orange or Red colours for all 'Advisories', 'Watches' and 'Warnings'.

'Statements' will remain unchanged (blue or grey), for now.

Environment Canada is making this change to hopefully help you quickly gauge both the severity of a weather event and the level of confidence forecasters have in their predictions.

Shown in the chart above, Environment Canada forecasters will choose the colour of alerts based on an "Impact" level and a "Confidence" level.

Here’s a breakdown of the upcoming changes and what they mean for you.

Headline Changes

Currently, weather alert headlines look like this:

Heat Warning

Under the new system, the headline will include a colour code that signals risk. For example:

Yellow Level Warning – Heat

We at Instant Weather feel that something about "Yellow Level Warning – Heat Issued" looks… strange and extra confusing.

Therefore, when we post Environment Canada alerts to social media, send notifications via our free app, and send out text message alerts, we're going to format it like this:

Heat Warning (Yellow Level) Issued

We believe this will make the transition from the old format to the new format easier for our community members. However, we'd love to hear your feedback on this so please let us know what you think about it!

NEW COLOURS

For the first time, advisories, watches and warnings will come in one of three colour options:

- Yellow = low risk (stay alert)

- Orange = moderate risk (take precautions)

- Red = high risk (serious danger)

Impact Level

The new Impact Level will estimate how much damage or disruption a storm is likely to cause.

Possible values:

- Low

- Moderate

- High

- Extreme

For example, a minor snowfall could be flagged as low impact, while a hurricane might carry an extreme impact designation.

Confidence Level

The new Confidence Level should help clarify how confident the Environment Canada forecaster issuing the alert feels.

Possible values:

- Low

- Moderate

- High

- Very High

For example, a “very high confidence” alert means there's near zero question if the storm poses a threat to the alerted area, while a “low confidence” could suggest that path may shift direction or the storm could dissipate.

Why These Changes Matter

Environment Canada believes these updates make weather alerts more actionable and accessible. Instead of vague warnings, you’ll know:

- The severity of the threat (colour level).

- The expected damage (impact level).

- The certainty of the forecast (confidence level).

For further details on these alert changes, visit Environment Canada’s newly launched website regarding colour-coded alerts:

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/severeweather/weather-alerts/colour-coded-alerts.html

Weather Forecasts & Articles

25-40cm of Snow Possible Around Toronto on Sunday as Widespread Snowstorm Threatens Travel Across Southern Ontario

Another Major Snowstorm Targets the GTA and Parts of Southern Ontario on Sunday With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

Potentially Coldest Night in Years Ahead for Southern Ontario as Arctic Air Sends Wind Chills Below -30°C

No End in Sight for Simcoe County and Grey-Bruce as Endless Snow Squalls Bring the Risk of Over 50cm More Snow on Friday

Snowy One-Two Punch Targets Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday as Alberta Clipper and Squalls Dump Up to 25 to 50 cm of Snow

Southern Ontario Plunges Into the Deep Freeze With Dangerous Blizzard Conditions on Monday

High-Impact Snowstorm to Disrupt Thursday Morning Commute for Toronto, London, Ottawa and Eastern Ontario With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

Southern Ontario Faces Ice Threat Then Snow as Fast Moving Winter System Disrupts Tuesday Travel

Quick Blast of Heavy Snow May Impact the Morning Commute in Southern Ontario With Up to 15cm of Snow on Monday

Parts of Southern Ontario To Ring In the New Year Buried in Up to 100cm of Additional Snow by Thursday

End-of-Year Major Winter Storm to Bring Dangerous Ice Storm and Blizzard Conditions Across Southern and Northeastern Ontario Starting Sunday

Boxing Day Winter Storm Poised to Deliver Ice Storm Risk and Heavy Snow to Southern Ontario on Friday

Potential Boxing Day Winter Storm Targets Southern Ontario With Significant Freezing Rain Risk and Up to 15-20cm of Snow

White Christmas Locked In for Parts of Southern Ontario, While Others Face the Risk of a Green Christmas for 2025

Southern Ontario’s Never-Ending Winter Continues This Weekend as Squalls Threaten to Bring Up to 50cm of More Snow

Barrie Area to Be Buried in Up to 40 to 75 cm of Snow on Thursday as Arctic Air Fuels Dangerous Snow Squalls

Back-to-Back Clippers To Deliver Up to 20cm of Snow Across Southern Ontario by Wednesday

Brief, Intense Snow Squalls Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Thursday With Up to 20 to 50cm Expected

Yet More Snow on the Way for Southern Ontario With a Snowy System on Sunday Bringing Up to 10-20cm

BIG CHANGES Coming to Environment Canada’s Alerts Beginning Today

Headline Changes

NEW COLOURS

Impact Level

Confidence Level

Why These Changes Matter

Instant Weather

Email: help@instantweather.ca

Terms of Use | Privacy Policy

Copyright ©2026, instant Weather, Inc.