'Snow Day' Forecast: Questionable Chance for School Bus Cancellations on Wednesday in Parts of Southern Ontario

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Snow squalls have persisted throughout Tuesday across regions near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, delivering relentless snowfall. The Muskoka region, in particular, has been buried under more than 50 cm of snow between Monday night and Tuesday morning.

While the intensity of these squalls has diminished slightly, a shift in wind direction has caused them to drift southward into Simcoe, Huron, and Perth counties. Despite the weakening, the squalls are expected to linger overnight, continuing to impact travel and local conditions.

There remains some uncertainty regarding overnight snowfall amounts. Current projections indicate totals of 5-10 cm in most areas, with isolated pockets potentially seeing 10-20 cm.

However, Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings for these regions, highlighting the potential for up to 30 cm of additional snow by Wednesday afternoon. If these higher totals materialize, they could prompt another round of school bus cancellations in the affected areas.

Meanwhile, the Muskoka region is still digging out from the massive snowfall earlier today. Although no additional accumulation is expected overnight, the sheer volume of snow already on the ground could lead to local school bus cancellations on Wednesday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Bluewater (Kincardine)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central & South Zone)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Hanover & Southampton)

  • Avon Maitland (Listowel & Exeter)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

  • Trillium Lakelands (North Muskoka)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

  • Bluewater (Owen Sound & Meaford)

  • STWDSTS (Dufferin)

  • Avon Maitland (Stratford)

  • Thames Valley (Middlesex)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.