'Snow Day' Forecast: Bus Cancellations Likely in Parts of Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Tuesday

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Intense snow squalls have developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as of Monday afternoon and are forecasted to persist into Tuesday.

These squalls are expected to bring significant snowfall, with accumulations of up to 50 cm in some areas, particularly across Muskoka, Parry Sound, and the Grey-Bruce regions.

The worst conditions are likely overnight into Tuesday morning, characterized by near-zero visibility and hazardous travel conditions.

Given the severity of the forecast, it is highly likely that school boards in the hardest-hit areas of Central and Southwestern Ontario will cancel school bus services on Tuesday.

Environment Canada has issued a snow squall warning, highlighting that “rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations.”

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula & Southampton)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands (North Muskoka)

  • Bluewater (Kincardine, Owen Sound & Meaford)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands (Haliburton)

  • Near North (East Parry Sound)

  • Bluewater (Hanover)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands (North City of Kawartha Lakes)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

  • Avon Maitland (Listowel)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

  • Avon Maitland (Exeter)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Tuesday is less than 10%. These snow squalls are highly localized and will primarily impact the typical snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.