Widespread Snowfall to End the Week Across Southern Ontario on Friday; Up to 5-10cm Possible
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While 2025 began with heavy snow across parts of Southern Ontario, most of the activity so far has been confined to traditional snowbelt regions. That’s about to change, as a new system is set to bring the first widespread snowfall of the year to much of Southern Ontario starting Friday.
Most of Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario can expect snowfall totals of 5 to 10 cm between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. However, areas along the Lake Huron shoreline and into the Bruce Peninsula may see enhanced snowfall, with totals reaching 10 to 20 cm due to lake-effect activity and embedded snow squalls.
As the system moves out, additional snowfall is likely over the weekend. Lake-effect snow squalls developing southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could bring localized accumulations of 20 to 30 cm from Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
SNOWFALL TIMING
PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
The system-related snowfall will begin spreading into Southwestern Ontario late Friday afternoon, with regions near Lake Huron, including Deep Southwestern Ontario, seeing snow first.
Through the dinner hours, the snow will advance northeast, gradually reaching the Golden Horseshoe and portions of Central Ontario by Friday evening. By midnight, snow will cover most of Southern Ontario, extending into Eastern Ontario.
PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
The most intense period of snowfall is expected overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. While the snow will generally be light, it could lead to several hours of steady accumulation, potentially impacting travel.
Exercise caution if you plan to drive during this time, and remember to adjust your speed to match road conditions.
For areas along the Lake Huron shoreline and into the Bruce Peninsula, lake-enhanced snowfall could intensify during the evening and overnight hours on Friday, resulting in heavier accumulations compared to surrounding areas.
Snowfall from this system will taper off from west to east starting early Saturday morning in Southwestern Ontario, with Eastern Ontario holding onto snow until late morning.
Flurries may linger into Saturday afternoon, especially in some regions.
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
As the system exits, lake-effect snow squalls may develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay by Saturday afternoon. Forecast models currently show some uncertainty about how organized these squalls will be and whether they will lock into specific areas for prolonged periods.
Higher-resolution models are just coming into range, so a detailed forecast for snow squall activity will be issued on Friday.
HOW MUCH SNOW TO EXPECT
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In terms of totals, most of Southern Ontario will see 4 to 8 cm of snowfall, with slightly higher amounts of up to 10 cm possible in localized areas. This includes the east end of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), such as Oshawa, and parts of Southwestern Ontario due to minor lake enhancement from Lake Ontario and Lake Huron.
The Golden Horseshoe and Ottawa Valley are expected to see slightly lower snowfall amounts, closer to 3 to 6 cm.
A zone along the Lake Huron shoreline—including Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, and the Bruce Peninsula—could see locally higher accumulations by Sunday afternoon. Current estimates suggest 10 to 15 cm for these areas, with up to 20 cm possible for the Bruce Peninsula.
WEEKEND SNOW SQUALL PREVIEW
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Environment Canada has identified areas near Barrie, Goderich, and London as hotspots for the most intense snow squalls over the weekend.
Here’s Environment Canada’s weekend outlook:
Saturday, January 11, 2025: “Lake effect snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay are expected to develop Saturday afternoon. Local snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are possible along with reduced visibility in heavy snow.”
Sunday, January 12, 2025: “Lake effect snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay are expected to continue on Sunday. Local snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are possible along with reduced visibility in heavy snow.”
As always, stay tuned for updates, especially if you’re in areas likely to experience lake-effect snow. Stay safe, and plan ahead for winter driving conditions!
