February 17, 2025

Snow Squalls Target the Grey-Bruce and Barrie Area Again With Locally Up to 50-100cm of Snow by Tuesday

February 17, 2025/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

Snow squalls are expected to become well-organized and intensify by Monday morning. One squall off Lake Huron will target southern Grey-Bruce, with periods of intense snowfall throughout the day. Thundersnow is even a possibility in this area.

Another squall will develop off the southeast shoreline of Georgian Bay, impacting parts of southern Simcoe County, including Wasaga Beach, Barrie, Angus, Innisfil, and Keswick.

These squalls will persist into the afternoon, shifting at times. The northern squall could push into Wiarton, extend across Georgian Bay, and come onshore near Barrie. Meanwhile, the southern squall off Lake Huron will stretch from Kincardine to Hanover and could push far inland, periodically bringing heavy snow into parts of the GTA.

By Monday night into Tuesday morning, the Lake Huron squall is expected to stall over southern Grey-Bruce, potentially leading to extreme snowfall accumulation. Wherever this band locks in, snowfall rates could reach an incredible 5-10 cm per hour. Some models suggest this squall could remain in place until Tuesday evening, somewhere between Owen Sound and Hanover.

The Georgian Bay squall may weaken somewhat after midnight but could persist into Tuesday. All snow squall activity should fizzle out by early Wednesday morning.

Projected Snowfall Totals:

Localized amounts near 100 cm are possible in Grey-Bruce, with hotspots likely near Port Elgin, Hanover, Chatsworth, and Flesherton. Not everyone in this zone will see these totals, but some areas will get buried.
25 to 50 cm is likely across the rest of Grey and Bruce counties, extending into northern Huron and Perth counties. This also includes areas along the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay, such as Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, and Barrie.
5 to 15 cm could extend into Kitchener, Guelph, Durham, and York as occasional bursts of heavy snow push outside the core snowbelt region.
The GTA may see light snow at times but is unlikely to receive more than 5 cm over the next two days.

Aside from the snow, we’re starting the week on a much colder note. If you’re heading outside for Family Day, be sure to bundle up—wind chills in the -20s are expected on Monday.

Stay safe and stay warm!

February 15, 2025

Strongest Snowstorm in Years to Bury Southern Ontario in Up to 50cm of Snow on Sunday

February 15, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Brace yourself, Southern Ontario! One of the biggest snowfalls in recent years is on the horizon for many parts of the region—excluding the usual snowbelt areas. This includes major cities like Toronto, Kingston, and Ottawa, which have largely dodged significant snowstorms over the past few years due to milder winters.

That streak ended earlier this week with the first storm in this parade of systems, dropping a widespread 20 cm or more across Southern Ontario. However, that system could pale in comparison to what’s coming next. This stronger storm is likely to bring 30 cm or more to a large portion of the region throughout Sunday.

As of Saturday afternoon, the first round of snow has already arrived, bringing steady snowfall from Southwestern Ontario into the Golden Horseshoe. This initial wave will be just the beginning, with up to 10 to 15 cm expected by the end of the day.

The second and much more intense round of precipitation will begin early Sunday morning as the system taps into tropical Gulf moisture and directs it straight into the Great Lakes region.

By morning and into the afternoon, conditions will deteriorate rapidly, with snowfall rates reaching 4 to 8 cm per hour. When combined with moderately strong wind gusts, this will lead to widespread blowing snow, significantly reduced visibility, and even localized blizzard conditions.

By the time the snow begins to taper off late Sunday, widespread totals of 30 to 50 cm are expected across Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into the Greater Toronto Area. The hardest-hit areas could even exceed 50 cm, particularly in Eastern Ontario, where elevation may enhance accumulation. Meanwhile, locations along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Niagara, and Chatham, may see lower snowfall totals due to potential mixing with freezing rain or ice pellets.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first round of snow will continue steadily across Southern Ontario through Saturday evening and past midnight, with heavier snowfall targeting the Golden Horseshoe and the southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario.

At the same time, the second round of snow will be rapidly developing south of the Great Lakes, forming over Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. This storm will strengthen quickly as it begins pulling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which is also fueling severe thunderstorms across the southern U.S.

While there may be a brief lull overnight, don’t let it fool you—the worst is still ahead. The heaviest snowfall will begin to push into Southwestern Ontario before sunrise, bringing a rapid increase in snowfall rates from 1 to 2 cm per hour earlier in the night to 2 to 4 cm per hour by the early morning.

As the system intensifies, hourly rates of 4 to 6 cm—potentially even higher in the strongest bands—are expected. Road conditions will deteriorate quickly, with significantly reduced visibility and heavy blowing snow making travel extremely hazardous.

Most areas will remain on the snowy side of this system, but there is some uncertainty regarding how far north a warm layer could push. This could lead to a brief period of ice pellets or freezing rain in areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, St. Thomas, Tillsonburg, Hamilton, and Niagara Falls.

While significant freezing rain is not expected, some minor ice accretion of a few millimetres could occur, particularly right along the shoreline.

By early to mid-morning Sunday, the storm’s intensity will peak across Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, with snowfall rates reaching 4 to 6 cm per hour in many areas. In the strongest bands, these rates could climb even higher, creating whiteout conditions.

Wind gusts of 40 to 60 km/h will further reduce visibility, and there is even the possibility of thundersnow as some of these snow bands intensify.

Meanwhile, areas farther north, including regions around Lake Simcoe, Peterborough, and into the Ottawa Valley, will begin to see snowfall intensities climb to 1 to 2 cm per hour, eventually reaching 5 to 10 cm per hour by the early afternoon

**HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The later part of Sunday morning after sunrise will see the worst conditions through Southwestern Ontario into the GTA as snowfall rates increase even further towards 4 to 6cm and possibility even higher in the strongest pockets of snow.

This snow will also be accompanied by increasing wind gusts near 40 to 60 km/h leading to blowing snow and blizzard conditions. Don’t be surprised to see some thundersnow during the morning as these bands of snow will be quite strong and could produce some lightning as they move through the region.

Snowfall intensity will also gradually increase through Central and Eastern Ontario with hourly snowfall rates reaching 1-2cm per hour around Lake Simcoe through Peterbough and into the Ottawa Valley.

As the system continues to push eastward, the most intense snowfall rates will shift into Central and Eastern Ontario. This is when travel will become nearly impossible in these areas as plows struggle to keep up with the rapid accumulation.

For Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, conditions will begin to improve slightly in the afternoon as the heaviest snow moves east. However, steady snowfall of 1 to 3 cm per hour will continue through much of the afternoon, with strong winds still blowing around earlier accumulations and keeping visibility low.

Snow will gradually taper off across Central and Eastern Ontario by Sunday evening, but blowing snow will remain a significant issue overnight. Travel will remain difficult even after the snowfall ends, particularly in areas with open terrain where drifting will be an issue.

By Monday, conditions should improve, but significantly colder air will move in. If possible, clearing snow on Sunday before temperatures drop is strongly recommended, as the snow will become much heavier to shovel once it settles and freezes.

**ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The strongest wind gusts will be found in Eastern Ontario, peaking during the early to mid-afternoon. Widespread gusts of 50 to 70 km/h are expected, with some areas, particularly around Ottawa and to the east, possibly seeing gusts near 80 km/h.

In comparison, the rest of Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, will experience gusts of 40 to 60 km/h, while Southwestern Ontario will likely see gusts under 40 km/h.

These wind speeds combined with the extreme snowfall rates expected across Eastern Ontario will almost certainly lead to blizzard conditions.

For a storm to meet the official criteria for a blizzard, winds of 40 km/h or greater must cause widespread reductions in visibility to 400 meters or less due to blowing and falling snow for at least four consecutive hours.

Based on current model data, it is highly likely that visibility will remain near zero for at least six hours from late morning to early/mid-afternoon in many parts of Eastern Ontario, surpassing the official blizzard threshold.

While it remains uncertain whether areas such as the GTA, Lake Simcoe, and Muskoka will officially reach blizzard criteria, blowing snow will still cause significant travel disruptions regardless of classification.

Regardless of whether your area officially meets blizzard criteria, this storm will create extremely dangerous travel conditions across much of Southern Ontario throughout Sunday.

Roads will become impassable at times, and even major highways will be difficult to navigate. Plows will struggle to keep up with the rapid accumulation, making travel nearly impossible in the worst-hit areas. If you don’t absolutely need to be on the roads, it is strongly advised to stay home.

By the time the storm ends, the highest snowfall totals will be found across Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into portions of the GTA, with widespread accumulations ranging from 30 to 50 cm. Some areas, particularly in Eastern Ontario near Ottawa and through higher elevations to the west, could exceed 50 cm.

Regions around Lake Simcoe and the northern GTA will likely end up with 30 to 40 cm, though locally higher amounts are possible in areas such as the Dundalk Highlands. The Hamilton region and western GTA may see slightly lower totals, around 20 to 30 cm, due to the potential for ice pellets mixing in at times.

Southwestern Ontario, particularly along the Lake Huron shoreline, will see slightly less snowfall, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm. This includes areas such as Sarnia, London, Goderich, Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound, and North Bay. However, if the system strengthens earlier than expected, some of these locations could still exceed 30 cm.

Meanwhile, the lowest totals will be found along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Chatham, and the Niagara region, where snowfall will range from 10 to 20 cm.

Looking ahead, colder temperatures are expected to settle into Southern Ontario by Monday. It would be wise to clear as much snow as possible on Sunday before the deep freeze sets in, as the snow will become significantly harder to move once temperatures drop.

Additionally, this colder air may trigger a resurgence of lake-effect snow early next week, which could lead to further significant snowfall accumulations in the typical snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. More details on that will come in a separate forecast.

This storm will be a major event, and conditions will be dangerous. If possible, stay home and avoid travel. We will continue to monitor the latest data and provide updates as needed. Stay safe!

February 14, 2025

Intense Snowstorm Could Bring Blizzard Conditions and Up to 30-60cm of Snow to Southern Ontario This Weekend

February 14, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The snowy weather isn’t letting up as yet another winter storm takes aim at Southern Ontario over the Family Day long weekend. This system will arrive in multiple waves, beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday. By the time it moves out late Sunday, much of Southern Ontario could be buried under as much as 60 cm of snow.

Strong winds will develop throughout Sunday morning into the afternoon, with gusts reaching 50 to 80 km/h in some areas. These powerful winds, combined with heavy snowfall, will create dangerous whiteout conditions and may even reach blizzard criteria. Travel is expected to become difficult as early as Saturday morning, with conditions steadily worsening through the night and into Sunday.

The most hazardous conditions are expected Sunday morning and afternoon, as intense snowfall rates are combined with strong wind gusts, making all non-essential travel extremely dangerous. Highway closures are highly likely in the hardest-hit regions as plows struggle to keep up with rapid snowfall rates, while blowing and drifting snow significantly reduces visibility.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm's exact track, which will determine where the heaviest snowfall occurs. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and possibly parts of the Golden Horseshoe could see periods of freezing rain or ice pellets by late Sunday morning. While this would create its own hazards, any mixing would also lower overall snowfall totals.

As of now, Eastern and parts of Central Ontario appear to be in line for the highest snowfall amounts. Combined two-day snowfall totals could range from 30 to 60 cm by Sunday night, with 5-10 cm expected on Saturday and an additional 25-50 cm possible on Sunday.

The storm will get underway Saturday morning as steady snow moves into Deep Southwestern Ontario from Michigan. It will spread into London and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) by late morning. Some light flurries may reach Central and Eastern Ontario, but the more persistent snowfall will remain south of Lake Simcoe.

At this stage, conditions may not seem too severe, leading to the false impression that the storm has been overhyped. However, don’t be fooled—snowfall rates will gradually increase through the afternoon, reaching 1-2 cm per hour and steadily accumulating.

By mid-afternoon Saturday, light to moderate snowfall will have spread across most of Southern Ontario. The heaviest snowfall will be concentrated over Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, while Central and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, may only see scattered flurries.

There are indications that parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario—including Windsor, Chatham, and possibly London—may see a transition to ice pellets or freezing rain. Meanwhile, Kitchener, Hamilton, and the GTA should remain primarily snow.

Heading into the evening, the storm’s moisture supply will intensify as it taps into the Gulf of Mexico, keeping snow steady across Southern Ontario. However, Central and Eastern Ontario may experience more scattered snowfall during this time. The most persistent snow bands are expected to set up along the Windsor-London-Hamilton corridor.

Some mixing could still occur near the Lake Erie shoreline, particularly in Leamington and the southern Niagara region, though it remains uncertain how far inland it may extend. If the mixing line pushes north, areas such as Windsor could also see freezing rain.

By the end of Saturday, snowfall totals are expected to range from 5 to 10 cm across much of Southern Ontario, with locally higher amounts of up to 15 cm in areas benefiting from lake enhancement like Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see lower totals, between 2 and 5 cm, as the first wave of snow stays focused farther south.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight Saturday as even more moisture-laden precipitation moves in from Michigan. Snowfall rates will increase during the pre-dawn hours, starting in the southwest around midnight before progressing east and north through the morning.

There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the extent of mixing along the Lake Erie shoreline, but there is a possibility of significant ice accretion in parts of Windsor and the Niagara region.

By late Sunday morning, the system is expected to intensify rapidly as the low-pressure center tracks south of the Great Lakes. This intensification will result in significantly higher snowfall rates, especially in the GTA, Niagara region, and Central Ontario, including Barrie, Muskoka, and Peterborough.

Snowfall rates could reach 5-10 cm per hour, making it impossible for road crews to keep up. Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see steady snow increase throughout Sunday afternoon and into the early evening.

Adding to the severity of the storm, strong wind gusts of 50-80 km/h will develop through Sunday morning, with the highest gusts expected in Central and Eastern Ontario. These winds, combined with intense snowfall rates, will almost certainly lead to blizzard conditions in some areas.

Visibility will be near zero, with blowing and drifting snow making travel dangerous. All non-essential travel should be avoided on Sunday morning and afternoon, as highway closures are likely in the hardest-hit regions. With snow falling at rates of 5-10 cm per hour, it will be extremely easy to become stranded, as plows will struggle to keep roads passable.

Despite being less than 48 hours away, there is still some uncertainty in the storm's track and timing. Different forecast models continue to show varying scenarios, which could impact snowfall totals and the extent of mixing.

The short-range American model (HRRR), which provides detailed hourly forecasts, aligns closely with the Canadian and European models. These models suggest a more southern track, keeping the GTA and much of Southern Ontario primarily in the snow zone.

However, another American model (NAM) suggests a more northern track with a later arrival. If this scenario plays out, the mixing line would shift farther north, bringing ice pellets or freezing rain from London to Hamilton and into the GTA. This would reduce snowfall totals in these areas but create hazardous icy conditions.

This model also suggests the mixing could extend along the Lake Ontario shoreline into parts of Southeastern Ontario, including Belleville, Kingston, and Brockville. While this scenario is less likely, it’s still worth monitoring.

Additionally, the NAM model points to a significant icing event for Hamilton and the Niagara region, with potential ice accretion of 10-15 mm. If this happens, localized power outages and tree damage could occur.

The model also suggests that while some forecasts indicate the heaviest snow will arrive early Sunday, this scenario shifts the worst conditions to the afternoon in Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, extending into the evening for Eastern Ontario.

Regardless of the final track, conditions should improve as snow tapers off from west to east late Sunday evening, with lingering snow in Eastern Ontario into early Monday morning. However, lake-effect snow could quickly develop around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as the system exits.

By the time this storm is over, a wide swath of Eastern and Central Ontario could see 30-60 cm of fresh snow, including the accumulation from both Saturday and Sunday.

For Southwestern Ontario and the GTA—including Sarnia, London, Kitchener, Hamilton, and Toronto—snowfall totals will likely range from 20-40 cm. However, if mixing occurs on Sunday, snowfall amounts could drop to 15-30 cm or even lower, depending on how extensive the ice pellets or freezing rain become.

The lowest snowfall totals will likely be in Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Erie shoreline, where freezing rain and ice pellets will reduce overall accumulation. Areas such as Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, St. Thomas, and Niagara Falls could see between 15-30 cm of snow, depending on how much mixing occurs.

We are closely monitoring the latest forecast data and will provide a more detailed breakdown of Sunday’s snowfall totals in an updated forecast on Saturday. Stay tuned for further updates.

February 14, 2025

Another Major Winter Storm Looks to Make a Mess of the Maritimes This Weekend

February 14, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The latest storm is barely in our rear-view mirror and we’re already looking ahead to the next one. This incoming storm, with a projected track that keeps shifting considerably over the span of a few hours between weather model runs, is slated to hit the Maritimes on Sunday and continue through most of Monday.

Similar to the storm that just hit the region, the next storm will bring a range of precipitation types due to the presence of warm air. Unfortunately, the amount of precipitation with this next storm is expected to be much greater and current projections show up to 60cm of snow possible in Northern New Brunswick and over 10mm of ice accretion across parts of Nova Scotia, PEI, and into Southern New Brunswick.

At this point, there is still some considerable uncertainty regarding the timing, precipitation types and the amount of each expected locally. This will be dependent on the exact path the storm will take as it makes its final approach into the region and how far north the warm air aloft will extend. We hope to have greater clarity of the situation over the next 24 hours and we will provide more details ASAP.

Precipitation Types with temperature profiles

February 13, 2025

Will It Ever End? Squalls Could Bring Up to Another 40cm of Snow by the End of Friday to Parts of Southern Ontario

February 13, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Are you enjoying winter yet, Ontario? ❄️ It feels like we've been stuck in an endless cycle of snow, with relentless snow squalls hammering the snowbelt regions.

Even outside the snowbelts, much of Southern Ontario joined in this week as a major winter storm dumped over 20 cm of snow across the region overnight into Thursday morning.

And the snowy pattern isn’t letting up anytime soon. More lake effect snow is on the way to end the week, followed by a potentially significant snowstorm this weekend.

The lake effect machine is expected to fire back up Thursday evening, becoming more organized overnight into Friday morning. Current indications suggest a strong snow squall will develop, targeting the Bruce Peninsula and stretching into parts of Simcoe County.

While squall activity should begin to wind down by Friday afternoon, areas that have already been hit hard this season—such as Orillia, Midland, Wiarton, Lion’s Head, and Tobermory—could see another 15 to 25 cm of snow. If the squall locks into place for an extended period, localized totals of up to 40 cm are possible.

As of early Thursday evening, bands of lake effect snow are already forming off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These will continue to shift around throughout the evening, delivering bursts of heavy snowfall to different areas.

Right now, it looks like the heaviest snowfall will be concentrated across the Bruce Peninsula and along the southeastern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Collingwood, Barrie, Angus, and Keswick. Additional, weaker bands may impact regions east of Lake Huron, from Owen Sound to Goderich.

By midnight, models suggest that a narrow but intense squall could set up, stretching from the Bruce Peninsula, over Georgian Bay, and into Barrie. However, there’s still uncertainty about its exact strength and how stationary it will be overnight. Some models show it drifting north toward Midland and Orillia, while others keep it in place longer.

If the squall aligns just right, it could connect with both Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, allowing it to tap into additional moisture. This could make it stronger than expected, potentially bringing more snow to Barrie than initially forecasted. Right now, Barrie sits right on the edge between significant snowfall and minimal accumulation.

By Friday morning, the squall will likely continue hammering the Bruce Peninsula and Simcoe County but may have shifted slightly north, putting Tobermory, Midland, and Orillia in the bullseye for heavy snow during the late morning.

Depending on its strength, the squall could even extend into portions of Durham and the Kawartha Lakes at times. This squall may remain stationary for several hours, with snowfall rates reaching 5-10 cm per hour.

It won’t take long for roads to become impassable, especially along the Highway 400 and Highway 11 corridors. Plows will struggle to keep up with such intense snowfall rates, and whiteout conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you can, stay home—this is the kind of snow that can lead to major travel disruptions and accidents.

By early Friday afternoon, the squall should gradually weaken as winds shift and become less favourable for lake effect snow.

As with any lake effect event, snowfall totals will be highly variable, depending on where these narrow snow bands set up.

The hardest-hit areas are expected to be across the Bruce Peninsula, including Tobermory, Lion’s Head, and Wiarton, extending into Simcoe County in areas like Midland, Washago, and Orillia. These regions could see 15 to 25 cm, with localized totals near 40 cm possible in central Simcoe County, closer to Georgian Bay.

Surrounding areas—including Grey-Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties east of Lake Huron—could see 5 to 15 cm, though some spots may see little to no snow due to how localized these bands are. Southern Muskoka, portions of Kawartha Lakes, and Durham Region may also receive up to 5 to 10 cm in some areas.

The rest of Southern Ontario should see less than 5 cm of snow over the next 24 hours, as the lake effect snow stays confined to the snowbelt regions.

While the lake effect snow wraps up Friday, a much bigger storm could be on the way this weekend. A potential multi-day snowfall event is on track to begin Saturday, and continue into Sunday.

Right now, there’s still uncertainty regarding snowfall totals and the exact timing of the worst conditions, but early indications suggest that much of Southern Ontario—particularly Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe—could see 20-30 cm or more by the end of the weekend.

We’re waiting on the latest model data this evening and will have a preliminary forecast on this potential snowstorm later today or early Friday. Stay tuned!

February 12, 2025

Strong Winter Storm Expected to Bring Over 30cm of Snow and Prolonged Freezing Rain to the Maritimes

February 12, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The winter storm that we’ve been tracking is bearing down on the Maritimes and things are going to be messy over the next couple of days. Not only will this storm bring significant amounts of snow to parts of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, but there is expected to be several hours of freezing rain across Nova Scotia.

The storm will make its way into the region at around 9-10am on Thursday, with snow crossing eastward into New Brunswick from Maine and Quebec. The snow will quickly cross the province throughout the remainder of the morning, with the leading edge reaching PEI by 1-2pm.

By the early afternoon, more intense snowfall will begin to fall in New Brunswick. This heavy snow will persist for several hours across most of Central and Northern New Brunswick, at rates of 3-5cm/hr, which will rapidly result in over 30cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of the day.

Prince County, PEI can also expect some heavier snowfall beginning in the mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening, which will lead to overall accumulations of 15-30cm. The heavy snowfall will start to weaken during the evening, but light snow is expected to continue to fall overnight and through early Friday morning across Northern New Brunswick and into PEI.

***Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (Pink), and Ice pellets (Orange) at 5PM AT Thursday***

Snowfall totals decrease moving southward through New Brunswick and eastward across PEI because the forecast is a bit more complicated there, along with throughout Nova Scotia. Precipitation will reach the western shores of Nova Scotia at around 10-11am Thursday, not long after it starts in New Brunswick. The leading edge of the storm will see the precipitation start off as light snow as it crosses the province, but it will very quickly transition over to freezing rain, with a brief period of ice pellets in between.

This change in precipitations types will occur as a result of warm air aloft nudging its way into the region from the south. The warmer air will spread across a wide area and will lead to pronged freezing rain over much of Nova Scotia, with upwards of 5mm of ice accretion on untreated surfaces.

Precipitation Types with temperature profiles

The depth of the layer of warm air will play a critical role in precipitation type. As the warm air tries to push further northward, the layer will become shallower and this will lead to a slightly longer period of ice pellets (also called sleet) before it eventually switches over to freezing rain.

This will be the case in Northern Nova Scotia and into Cape Breton Island, as well as with most of PEI and Southern New Brunswick. In these areas, the ice pellets will add to the prior snowfall totals before there is a short-lived period of freezing rain and therefore less ice accretion overall.

Eventually, the warm air will reach the surface and temperatures will climb above freezing, starting in Western Nova Scotia at roughly 2-3pm. This will lead to the precipitation making a final transition from freezing rain to rain for a few hours as the storm continues to cross the region.

The precipitation across the region will taper off throughout Thursday evening. As previously mentioned, some light snow is expected to continue in Northern New Brunswick and PEI overnight, however, freezing rain is also expected to last in Cape Breton into the early morning hours of Friday as well.

This storm is expected to bring some strong wind gusts to go alongside with the mixed bag of precipitation throughout the Maritimes. The gusts are expected to be the strongest across Nova Scotia, with gusts of 60-90km/h for the duration of the storm across the Mainland and over 100km/h in Northern Cape Breton. In New Brunswick and PEI, winds will be weaker, but gusts up to 60km/h are likely.

Luckily, the temperatures climbing after the freezing rain will help melt the ice buildup off of surfaces, especially from trees and power lines, ahead of stronger winds expected on Friday.

February 11, 2025

High Impact Winter Storm on the Way for Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday With Up to 40cm of Snow & Freezing Rain

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Confidence is growing that Southern Ontario is on track for what could be the most widespread and significant winter storm of the season so far. That said, there hasn’t been much competition in that regard, as most of this winter’s snowfall has come from localized snow squalls. However, a shift in the weather pattern has placed the region in an active storm track, and Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time delivering a disruptive winter storm right in the middle of the week.

Earlier, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the system, which would have influenced snowfall amounts in different areas. However, in the past 24 hours, forecast models have begun to align on a more consistent storm track. Interestingly, the latest data supports what we initially projected, meaning there hasn’t been a major shift in the forecast.

Widespread snowfall accumulations of 20 to 40 cm are expected from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley between Wednesday and Thursday. In the Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario, precipitation will likely begin as snow, but there is potential for ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain to mix in. This could limit snowfall totals, especially along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, where temperatures may hover near the freezing mark.

For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the extent of mixing remains a key uncertainty. It could go either way. Right now, we’re forecasting 10 to 20 cm of snow, but if the mixing line stays south, snowfall amounts could surpass expectations, reaching 25 to 30 cm.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and extending into the Niagara region, models suggest several hours of freezing rain Wednesday evening and overnight. Some localized areas could see ice accretion of 2 to 5 mm, leading to slippery, untreated surfaces and hazardous road conditions.

The storm is expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon, with scattered precipitation moving into Southwestern Ontario between 2 and 4 PM. While most areas will initially see snow, some models are aggressive in bringing freezing rain into Windsor and Chatham by late afternoon.

Before the main storm arrives, lake-effect snow may develop off Lake Ontario, affecting the Burlington and Hamilton corridor Wednesday morning into early afternoon. System snow should reach the GTA just before the evening rush hour, making for a difficult commute.

The latest model data has also increased wind projections, with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall, this could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Non-essential travel should be avoided starting in the late afternoon, with conditions deteriorating further into the evening.

By mid to late evening, snow will have spread across most of Southern Ontario, including Central and Eastern Ontario. A key feature to monitor will be the movement of the mixing line.

Current data shows a freezing rain corridor stretching from Leamington through Chatham and along the Lake Erie shoreline, with a narrow band of ice pellets from Windsor through just south of London and into Hamilton.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Sarnia, London, Kitchener, and the GTA. Snowfall rates will intensify after 9–10 PM, increasing from 1–2 cm per hour to 2–4 cm per hour. This will make it challenging for snowplows to keep up.

After midnight, the mixing line may push north into parts of the GTA, bringing ice pellets and freezing rain to locations such as London, Burlington, Mississauga, and Toronto for several hours. However, this transition looks to be confined near the Lake Ontario shoreline, meaning snowfall will likely dominate farther inland.

Freezing rain will continue across Windsor and along the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara region, while heavy snow steadily blankets Central and Eastern Ontario overnight.

The system will begin its exit Thursday morning, with snow tapering off in Southwestern Ontario first. However, snow will continue across Central and Eastern Ontario.

In the Niagara region and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, mixing will remain a concern into the early morning hours. However, by 4–6 AM, colder air will push in, flipping precipitation back to snow. Any previously fallen precipitation may refreeze as temperatures drop, creating hazardous road conditions.

Expect treacherous travel conditions on Thursday morning. Roads will be slushy and icy in areas that saw mixing, while heavy snow will make roads impassable further north. Widespread school bus cancellations and school closures are likely.

Eastern Ontario will hold onto light to moderate snow through the late morning. However, models indicate some potential for mixing in the Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall areas. This could result in light icing from freezing rain before a final transition back to snow.

Most of Southern Ontario will finally see an end to precipitation Thursday, aside from some lingering lake-effect snow near Lake Huron.

Based on the latest data, the highest snowfall totals will likely be in Central and Eastern Ontario. A widespread 20–40 cm is forecast across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. However, totals closer to 40 cm are most probable in Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, where there’s even a slight chance of locally exceeding 40–50 cm.

Central and Southwestern Ontario, including Grey-Bruce, Kitchener, York Region, Simcoe County, Muskoka, and Peterborough, will likely receive 20–30 cm, with some areas near Lake Simcoe potentially exceeding 30 cm.

The exception will be the Lake Ontario shoreline and the International border, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. Lower snowfall ratios and a higher risk of mixing could keep totals below 20 cm. However, if mixing remains minimal, this area could exceed forecasts.

The snowfall forecast becomes more uncertain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, where multiple factors create a ‘boom or bust’ scenario. The GTA will start with heavy snow, likely reaching 10 cm fairly easily unless there’s a drastic shift in the storm track. The big question is how much more accumulates beyond that.

Some models suggest that if mixing does not occur, parts of the GTA could see 20–30 cm by Thursday morning. However, given the likelihood of overnight mixing, we expect totals to stay below 20 cm, which is why our official forecast remains at 10–20 cm.

London and Sarnia sit on the boundary between significant snow and mixed precipitation. The most probable outcome is 15–20 cm, though an overperformance remains possible.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, snowfall amounts will be lower, with less than 10 cm expected. However, these areas will likely see prolonged freezing rain, with the heaviest ice accretion along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Models vary on how intense the freezing rain will be. Some project as much as 10 mm of ice accretion, but this seems unlikely given the presence of mixed precipitation and the relatively short duration of freezing rain. Our official forecast calls for 2–5 mm of ice accretion, though isolated pockets could see 7–10 mm if freezing rain persists longer than expected.

February 11, 2025

First Look: Major Winter Storm Set to Bring a Mixed Bag of Precipitation to the Maritimes

February 11, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Over the past few days, we’ve been monitoring the development of a major winter storm with the potential to have a significant impact in the Maritimes. In that time, the projected track of the storm has shifted back and forth, making it difficult to determine how exactly the storm would impact different parts of the region. Now that we’re less than 36 hours out, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of what can be expected from this storm.

The storm will begin early Thursday morning by bringing snow into the region from the west. Currently, it appears that the entirety of the Maritimes will see at least some snow, however precipitation won’t remain as snow for the entire storm for many in the region.

There is a high risk for prolonged freezing rain across parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Southern New Brunswick as warm air is expected to flood northward throughout the day on Thursday. The freezing rain will eventually transition to rain in Nova Scotia, PEI and along the Fundy Coast in New Brunswick with the climbing temperatures, which may approach the double digits in Western Nova Scotia. The warm air should thankfully limit the impact of the freezing rain in many areas since a majority of the ice accretion should melt.

In Northern New Brunswick, on the other hand, the snow is expected to not only persist throughout the entire event, but will also be quite heavy. Early estimates are pointing at upwards of 40cm of snow here by the time the storm exits the region early Friday morning.

Exact timing, along with anticipated snowfall and freezing rain totals across the region, will be discussed in a full-length forecast that will be issued Wednesday evening so make sure to stay tuned for that.

February 11, 2025

'High' Risk for 30-40 CM of Snow for Ottawa & Parts of Ontario Wednesday to Friday Says Environment Canada

February 11, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is calling for a major winter storm to impact Ontario beginning Wednesday, bringing heavy snowfall, ice, and hazardous travel conditions across the province. The storm could arrive earlier than originally expected, affecting the Wednesday evening commute in several regions. High-impact winter weather will persist through Thursday, with lake-effect snow squalls expected to develop late Thursday into Friday.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

Southwestern Ontario to areas northeast of Toronto:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
Impact: Significant impacts on rush hour traffic, snow-covered and slippery roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will move into southern Ontario earlier than initially forecast, with accumulating snowfall beginning in the afternoon. This could lead to deteriorating travel conditions during the evening rush hour, particularly in urban areas. Snowfall will continue through the night into Thursday, with additional accumulations expected.

Areas near and north of Lake Erie:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible significant rush hour disruptions, snow-covered and icy roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will begin Wednesday afternoon but may mix with freezing rain or rain later in the evening. This transition could lead to icy surfaces, increasing travel risks into early Thursday morning. The precipitation type will depend on the storm’s exact track, which remains uncertain.

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

Central and eastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Dangerous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, and transportation delays
Confidence: High
Impact Severity: High

Heavy snow, possibly exceeding 30 to 40 cm in some areas, is expected. Snowfall rates may be intense, particularly on Thursday morning, leading to significant disruptions.

Central, eastern, and northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snowfall totals of 15 to 30 cm are possible, with peak snowfall rates occurring overnight into Thursday morning.

Eastern Ontario near Lake Ontario:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are expected. However, areas closer to Lake Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, limiting total snowfall amounts.

Regions near and east of Lake Huron towards Peterborough:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow, possibly heavy at times, will continue through the morning, with total accumulations of 15 to 25 cm.

Southwestern Ontario towards the Greater Toronto Area:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Potentially difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow will taper off into Thursday morning, but areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, which could result in icy road conditions. Areas that remain all snow may face significant travel impacts Thursday morning.

Northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

This region will be on the northern edge of the storm. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected, but if the system tracks further north, higher totals may occur. Conversely, a more southerly track would result in lower accumulations.

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

Following the main winter storm, lake-effect snow squalls are expected to develop late Thursday into Friday. These squalls could produce intense snowfall rates, strong winds, and poor visibility, further impacting travel.

Southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Strong lake-effect snow squalls could develop, exacerbating travel conditions, especially if significant snowfall occurs with the preceding storm.

East of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, slippery roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Localized snow squalls could develop, with rapidly changing weather conditions.

Near Lake Superior:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, snow-covered roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Lake-effect snow bands are expected to be highly variable, shifting frequently, which should help limit overall accumulations in any one area.

Key Takeaways:

A significant winter storm will impact Ontario Wednesday into Thursday, bringing heavy snow, ice, and hazardous travel conditions.

Urban areas will likely see rush hour impacts Wednesday evening due to an earlier-than-expected arrival.
Snowfall amounts could reach 30 to 40 cm in eastern Ontario, with 15 to 30 cm across much of central and northeastern Ontario.
Areas near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could see ice accumulation due to freezing rain.
Lake-effect snow squalls will follow on Friday, compounding travel challenges.

Be safe, folks! We promise that winter should end sometime around spring… 🥶

February 11, 2025

Major Winter Storm on Track to Dump Up to 40cm of Snow Across Most of Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Get your shovels ready, Southern Ontario! What many would consider our first true winter storm of the season is on the horizon. This moisture-laden system is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, bringing heavy snowfall across a large portion of our region.

There’s still some uncertainty in the exact track, which will determine who sees the heaviest snow, but confidence is growing that much of Southern Ontario will experience significant impacts from this storm. Travel will likely become hazardous Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and widespread school bus cancellations—and even full school closures—are almost certain on Thursday.

Based on the latest data, the heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley. Accumulations will likely range between 20 to 40 cm, with some localized pockets potentially exceeding 40 cm by the time the snow tapers off early Thursday afternoon.

The most challenging part of this forecast comes down to a narrow corridor from London through Hamilton, into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along the Lake Ontario shoreline, and into extreme Eastern Ontario along the international border. These areas are likely to start off with snow, but depending on the storm’s track, a transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain could occur during the evening and overnight.

The exact snowfall amounts in this corridor remain highly uncertain, as even a fraction of a degree difference in temperature could mean the difference between 5 cm and 30 cm of snow.

The risk of freezing rain also appears significant for areas in deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and communities along the Lake Erie shoreline, where several hours of ice accretion could result in hazardous road conditions and localized power outages.

The storm will begin impacting Southern Ontario on Wednesday afternoon, with the initial bands of snow spreading into deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham, and London. By the mid-to-late afternoon, snow will have moved into Hamilton, Niagara, and the Greater Toronto Area, just in time for the evening commute.

Steady snowfall will continue through the dinner hour, with snowfall rates gradually increasing as the system spreads further across the region. Central and Eastern Ontario will see snow begin around the dinner hour into the early evening, while the Ottawa Valley may not see the first flakes until mid-to-late evening.

Snow will continue throughout the night across much of the region, with varying intensity. Unlike some past storms, this event isn’t expected to bring extreme snowfall rates, with accumulations of around 2 to 4 cm per hour at most. However, the prolonged nature of this storm, lasting 12 to 16 hours in many areas, will allow totals to build up significantly.

Another key factor in determining final snowfall amounts will be how far north the mixing line extends into Southern Ontario. Earlier model runs suggested a more northern track, which would allow warmer air to push into areas along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, leading to a transition from snow to ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain.

However, more recent model data from Monday evening has trended slightly further south, reducing the risk of mixing for some areas. That said, some models, including the American (NAM) and European models, still show a more northern mixing line, which could bring ice and rain into parts of deep Southwestern Ontario, London, and Hamilton.

If this occurs, Windsor and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could see several hours of freezing rain, resulting in ice buildup on untreated surfaces, power lines, and roads.

On the other hand, the Canadian (RGEM) model, along with the higher-resolution American NAM 3km model, suggest a more southern storm track, which would keep most of Southern Ontario in the snow zone.

If this scenario plays out, snowfall accumulations could be much higher in places like London, Hamilton, and the Golden Horseshoe, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm and minimal mixing.

Some models also indicate the possibility of mixing slightly north of Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence River, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall, which could lower snow totals in these areas. However, the latest data suggests this region may stay entirely on the snowy side of the system.

As the storm progresses overnight, those areas that remain on the snow side will continue to see accumulation through early Thursday morning. Snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 4 cm per hour in heavier bands but will likely average closer to 1 to 2 cm per hour.

Fortunately, winds won’t be particularly strong, with gusts expected to range from 20 to 40 km/h at most. While some blowing snow is possible, full-blown blizzard conditions are not expected with this storm.

By mid-morning Thursday, high-resolution models suggest a final burst of heavier snow around the Golden Horseshoe, Lake Simcoe, and Eastern Ontario. Snowfall rates could briefly spike to 4 to 6 cm per hour as the back end of the system moves through during the morning rush hour.

Travel conditions will likely be very poor on Thursday morning, and all non-essential travel should be avoided. Widespread school bus cancellations are almost a certainty given these conditions.

A rapid improvement is expected in Southwestern Ontario by late morning, with snowfall tapering off to light flurries. However, it will take time for road crews to clear the heavy snowfall, so road conditions may remain hazardous into the early afternoon.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, snow will linger into the early afternoon before finally winding down around midday for the GTA and Central Ontario and mid-afternoon for the Ottawa Valley.

By the time the storm wraps up, a broad region across Southern Ontario, including the Lake Huron shoreline, Sarnia, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, and the Ottawa Valley, will likely see between 20 and 40 cm of fresh snow. Mixing is unlikely to be a factor in these areas, though there’s always a slight chance of a last-minute shift in the storm track.

The biggest uncertainty lies within a narrow corridor that includes London, Woodstock, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. This area will likely begin with snow on Wednesday but could see ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain mix in during the late evening and overnight hours, which would reduce total snowfall amounts.

A conservative estimate for this region is at least 10 cm of snow, though some areas, particularly along the northern edge of this zone, could see totals closer to 20 to 30 cm. The current model trends lean toward a slightly more southern storm track, but we are waiting to see if this pattern holds before making final adjustments to the snowfall forecast.

For Windsor, Chatham, and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Niagara, a mix of snow and freezing rain is expected. Some locations could experience several hours of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion of 4 to 8 mm, which may cause localized power outages. However, if the mixing line remains further south, these areas could still end up seeing significant snowfall, possibly exceeding 20 cm.

The bottom line is that while we have high confidence in a significant winter storm, the local impacts will ultimately depend on the storm’s exact track, which may not become fully clear until just before the system moves in.

A more detailed forecast with refined snowfall and freezing rain estimates will be released late Tuesday as newer model data becomes available.

February 09, 2025

Impactful Winter Storm Possible Says Environment Canada For Parts of Ontario This Week With the Risk of Heavy Snow, Ice, and Dangerous Travel Conditions

February 09, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is forecasting a potentially impactful winter storm for parts of Ontario that could bring a mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and dangerous travel conditions. Potentially hazardous winter weather could begin as early as Wednesday evening and continue into the weekend with snow squalls behind the main system. Some areas could see snowfall totals exceeding 30 cm, while others may face icy conditions due to freezing rain. Blowing snow and strong winds could lead to whiteout conditions, power outages, and road closures. While there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the exact track and intensity of this storm, it’s certainly worth discussing and paying attention to over the next few days.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Sault Ste. Marie North to Montreal River Harbour

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue through Monday, with some areas receiving an additional 30 cm. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow. Snow squalls will taper off before Tuesday morning.

Agawa – Lake Superior Park

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Afternoon and evening
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls south of the area may move north Monday afternoon, with local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm possible before they shift back south Monday evening. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow.

Regions Southeast of Georgian Bay

Hazard(s): Snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday afternoon
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue into Monday afternoon, with some areas receiving an additional 20 cm.

The Bruce Peninsula and Areas East of Georgian Bay

Hazard(s): Snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls ongoing over the Bruce Peninsula will taper off Monday morning. Snow squalls over regions southeast of Georgian Bay will shift north Monday afternoon. Local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm are possible.

Wednesday, February 12 (evening) – Thursday, February 13, 2025

Greater Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will move in Wednesday evening. Snowfall could be heavy at times, with 15 to 30 cm possible. Blowing snow may reduce visibility. If the system tracks further north, areas along the north shore of Lake Ontario could see ice pellets and freezing rain instead of heavy snow. If it tracks south, snowfall amounts may be lower.

Southwestern and Central Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 10 to 20 cm, with potential blowing snow reducing visibility. Snow squalls may develop behind the system Thursday afternoon, especially southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

North Shore of Lake Erie

Hazard(s): Snow, freezing rain
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday morning
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, icy surfaces on roads and walkways.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A mix of heavy snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain is possible, depending on the storm’s track. A more southern track may bring up to 15 cm of snow, while a northern track could result in more freezing rain. Forecast confidence is low, and updates will be necessary.

Bruce Peninsula and Portions of Central & Northeastern Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 5 to 15 cm, with blowing snow reducing visibility. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

Far Northern Ontario (Along Hudson Bay & Manitoba Border)

Hazard(s): Extreme cold
Timing: Wednesday morning
Impact(s): Risk of hypothermia and frostbite if outside for prolonged periods without adequate protection.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: Wind chill values of -40 to -45 are possible, creating dangerous conditions for exposed skin. Proper winter gear is essential.

While quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding the exact intensity and placement of snowfall, wind gusts, and freezing rain, confidence continues to increase that parts of Ontario will experience yet another high-impact winter event. Those with travel plans should closely monitor for updates as this develops.

We’ll continue to provide updates as more details become available. Stay safe and stay prepared!

February 07, 2025

Snowy System Brings Double Digit Snowfall Accumulation to Greater Toronto Area & Southwestern Ontario This Weekend

February 07, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While many parts of Southern Ontario have been hit hard by snow squalls this winter, others have barely seen any accumulation.

The snowbelt regions east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay have faced relentless lake-effect snow, while areas like Deep Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and Southeastern Ontario have largely remained outside the squall zones.

The reason? This winter has been dominated by localized snow squalls rather than widespread storms. The extreme cold throughout January kept the storm track well south of the Great Lakes, shielding much of the region from major systems.

Aside from the occasional Alberta Clipper, it’s been relatively quiet. But that’s about to change as we shift into a more active storm track that places Southern Ontario directly in its path.

A moderately strong snowy system is on track to bring steady, accumulating snowfall across a wider area, including the GTA—one of the least snowy regions so far this season. Snow is expected to begin Saturday afternoon, with the heaviest accumulation occurring Saturday evening.

In fact, this system could bring Toronto its largest one-day snowfall of the season. The city’s current highest daily total sits at just 6.6 cm, recorded in early December. But with this storm, a widespread 10-15 cm of snow is looking increasingly likely, with some areas west of Lake Ontario possibly approaching 20 cm due to lake enhancement.

The first snow bands will push into Southern Ontario from the west by mid-afternoon Saturday, with flurries likely developing east of Lake Huron between 2-4 PM before spreading into the GTA around the dinner hour.

At first, the snowfall will be light, but intensity will gradually increase through the late afternoon and early evening as stronger snow bands move in. Windsor and Chatham could see some mixed precipitation, with a chance of freezing rain or drizzle before switching over to snow.

By early evening, snowfall will expand across most of Southern Ontario, bringing steady accumulation.

The heaviest snow is expected west of Lake Ontario, stretching into Kitchener and Goderich, where snowfall rates could reach 1-2 cm per hour.

**ESTIMATED WIND GUST** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Winds gusting 40-50 km/h along the Lake Erie shoreline Saturday evening may not be extreme, but they could still create minor blowing snow when combined with the steady snowfall, making travel conditions tricky.

Snow will continue falling through the evening, gradually spreading toward Eastern Ontario. While Ottawa might see some light snow, accumulation should remain minimal.

The heaviest snow in Eastern Ontario will focus along the Lake Ontario shoreline, including Belleville and Kingston.

As we approach midnight, snow will begin tapering off from west to east, with Lake Huron regions clearing out first. For the GTA, heavier snow may persist a few hours past midnight before gradually weakening.

By early Sunday morning, the system will have moved out of most of Southern Ontario, with only lingering light snow possible in Eastern Ontario.

Recent model trends suggest a stronger system than initially expected, though there remains some uncertainty. Forecasts have bounced between 5-10 cm and 15-25 cm in different model runs.

The current consensus suggests a general 10-15 cm corridor extending from Lake Huron through Kitchener, the Golden Horseshoe, and into the Kingston area, with localized pockets nearing 20 cm.

For areas further north, including Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, and Brockville, as well as Sarnia and London, 5-10 cm of snow is expected.

The least snowfall will be in the Ottawa Valley, where less than 5 cm is likely. Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor and Chatham, will see the lowest totals, with 2-5 cm possible, along with the risk of freezing rain.

This will be one of the most widespread snowfalls of the season, especially for regions that have barely seen measurable snow this winter. Stay tuned for further updates as the system approaches.

February 06, 2025

Snow Squalls to End Off the Week in Parts of Southern Ontario With Up to 25cm of Snow Possible by Friday

February 06, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While we’ve had a break from snow squall activity over the past week, they are expected to return as we close out the week, bringing another round of lake-effect snow to areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

As the system that brought a messy mix of wintry weather moves out, colder air will briefly settle into Southern Ontario. This drop in temperature, combined with strong westerly to northwesterly winds blowing over the still mostly ice-free lakes, will create the perfect conditions for snow squall development.

Overnight Thursday, shifting winds will likely trigger several narrow bands of heavy snow that will sweep across Southern Ontario before becoming more organized over Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While these bands won’t last long—most areas will only see snow for 15 to 30 minutes—they could still create hazardous driving conditions. Strong wind gusts of 70-80 km/h will cause blowing snow, significantly reducing visibility on the roads.

However, for regions within the snowbelt, which have already been hit hard by squalls in recent weeks, this could be another significant snowfall event. Parts of Grey-Bruce and Simcoe County may see totals reaching 15 to 25 cm in the hardest-hit communities by the end of Friday.

More organized squalls are likely to develop early Friday morning, targeting the Bruce Peninsula and extending into Simcoe County. This narrow but intense band will likely persist throughout much of the day, though it may shift somewhat as winds fluctuate.

Current model data indicates that the heaviest snow will remain focused within the Wiarton-to-Owen Sound corridor in Grey-Bruce and between Orillia and Barrie in Simcoe County. At times, the squall could extend further inland, bringing periods of heavy snow to parts of Kawartha Lakes, Durham, and Peterborough during the morning and afternoon.

By Friday evening, a shift in wind direction will bring a few hours of intense snowfall to parts of Southern Muskoka, including MacTier, Port Carling, Bala, Gravenhurst, and Bracebridge. However, this squall is expected to weaken quickly after midnight as winds subside.

With the snow band moving around throughout the day, widespread extreme accumulations are less likely, but it will allow more regions to see bursts of heavy snowfall at different times.

We’re expecting total snowfall accumulations of 15 to 25 cm across the central Bruce Peninsula, including Wiarton and Lion’s Head, extending into most of Simcoe County.

The City of Barrie is expected to avoid the worst of the snowfall, but if the squall sinks slightly farther south for a few hours, the city could still see around 10-15 cm of accumulation.

For the rest of Grey-Bruce, including Owen Sound, Hanover, and Collingwood, as well as Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, and Peterborough, snowfall totals will generally range between 5 to 10 cm, though some localized pockets may receive up to 15 cm.

Outside of the snowbelt, snowfall will be minimal, with 2-5 cm expected across the rest of Central Ontario and less than 2 cm for Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Deep Southwestern Ontario will likely remain snow-free from this round of lake-effect snow.

After the snow squalls, attention will turn to Saturday night, which, at one point, looked like it could bring Southern Ontario its strongest winter storm of the season. However, recent model data now suggests that much of the system’s moisture may stay south of the border, shifting into the U.S. Northeast instead.

If this trend continues, instead of widespread snowfall totals of 10-20 cm, most of Southern Ontario could see just 5 to 10 cm—and even that might be on the high end.

For those hoping for a big winter storm, it looks like luck isn’t on your side this time. That said, we’re still in an active storm track, and the next few weeks will bring more chances for Southern Ontario to get hit with a classic winter storm.

February 05, 2025

Incoming Storm's Shift Expected to Keep Heaviest Snow Out of the Maritimes, Widespread 5-10cm By Friday Afternoon

February 05, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

For the past several days, we’ve been tracking the development of a winter storm, with a considerable freezing rain component, set to impact the Maritimes later in the week.

Thankfully, the projected track of the storm has taken a southward shift, ahead of the storm’s development Wednesday afternoon. This will keep the heaviest precipitation from the storm, expected to fall mostly as snow, away from the Maritimes as it approaches the region on Thursday.

***Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (Pink), and Ice pellets (Orange) at 3PM AT Thursday***

The leading edge of the snow will arrive in Western Nova Scotia and Southwest New Brunswick in the mid-afternoon Thursday, shortly after 3pm. It will cross the region fairly quickly, reaching Prince Edward Island in the evening, around 7-8pm and Cape Breton Island by 9pm.

Some heavier snow is anticipated to move into Western Nova Scotia in the early evening and this area can expect to be on the top end of the 5-10cm range, with local amounts even exceeding 10cm.

While this snowfall is crossing the Maritimes, warm air will surge northward into Nova Scotia. This will bring temperatures above freezing and result in a transition from snow to rain in Western Nova Scotia around 9pm, with a brief period of freezing rain or ice pellets in between. The temperature will also rise along the Fundy Coast of New Brunswick, but whether or not the transition to rain occurs here is questionable.

Some weather models show more of this freezing precipitation falling than others, but regardless, it shouldn’t amount to much. Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing with the transition to rain, melting any ice buildup that might occur.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (Pink), and Ice pellets (Orange) at 8PM AT Thursday. Note: this particular model does not cover the entire maritimes.

As the system pushes northeastward across the Maritimes, the snow-to-rain transition will also cross Nova Scotia. The rain won’t last long, though, as the precipitation will start to exit the region beginning around 9-11pm.

All precipitation is expended to be finished by around sunrise on Friday, after a widespread 5-10cm of snow falls across most of the region. Lesser amounts will be measurable in Nova Scotia following the increase in temperatures and the rain melting what had previously fallen.

Strong winds aren’t expected to be much of a concern with this system. The winds will pick up Thursday evening, leading to gusts of up to 70km/h across Nova Scotia, PEI and Southern New Brunswick overnight and into Friday morning. The western edge of the Cape Breton Highlands, however, could see gusts in excess of 100km/h for a few hours Friday morning before dying down ahead of sunrise.

Looking ahead, we have our eye on another storm that could impact the Maritimes on Sunday and we will have more details on that in the coming days.

February 05, 2025

Significant Winter Storm For Parts of Ontario Possible This Weekend Says Environment Canada

February 05, 2025/ Adam Skinner

A prolonged and dynamic winter storm is set to impact Ontario beginning Thursday, bringing a combination of heavy snow, strong winds, freezing rain, and hazardous travel conditions across multiple regions. Confidence remains high that this system will bring significant impacts, but uncertainty exists regarding the precise track and intensity of each hazard. Here’s what to expect:

Thursday, February 6, 2025

East of Lake Superior
A powerful winter storm will bring heavy snowfall, strong winds, and widespread blowing snow, making travel extremely hazardous. Whiteout conditions are possible, particularly in open areas.

Wind gusts up to 90 km/h, especially near Lake Superior
Widespread snowfall with lake effect snow contributing to accumulations up to 20 cm
Power outages likely due to strong winds and heavy snow
Winds should ease late Thursday night into Friday morning

Manitoulin Island, Grey/Bruce Region, and East of Georgian Bay
Strong winds and blowing snow will create dangerous conditions across these regions Thursday evening, with near-zero visibility in exposed areas.

Wind gusts up to 90 km/h possible near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay
Loose snow and strong winds will result in blowing snow and whiteout conditions
Winds will ease Thursday night into Friday

North of Lake Superior
A strong snow system will move in during the morning and afternoon, leading to difficult travel conditions.

Snowfall amounts up to 15 cm
Local blowing snow may further reduce visibility

Northern and Far Northern Ontario
Snow and blowing snow will create hazardous conditions early Thursday morning, with worsening visibility in the afternoon as winds increase.

Snowfall amounts up to 10 cm
Wind gusts up to 60 km/h will lead to blowing and drifting snow, making travel difficult

Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Golden Horseshoe
A wintry mix of freezing rain and freezing drizzle could create slippery conditions overnight Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.

Areas around Windsor are at the highest risk of accumulating freezing rain
Icing may also occur across much of southern Ontario due to freezing drizzle mixed with snow
Roads and sidewalks could become extremely slick before temperatures rise above freezing later in the day

Northern, Central, and Eastern Ontario
A broad swath of snow will move through these regions overnight Wednesday into Thursday, leading to travel disruptions.

Snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm expected

Friday, February 7, 2025

Areas Southeast of Lake Superior
Lake effect snow squalls will take hold Thursday night and persist into Friday night, producing locally heavy snowfall and whiteout conditions.

Snow accumulations of 15 to 25 cm possible
Wind gusts up to 70 km/h will create blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility, especially Friday morning
Road closures may occur in some areas

Bruce Peninsula and Areas Southeast of Georgian Bay
Similar to regions southeast of Lake Superior, lake effect snow squalls will develop early Friday and continue into the evening.

Snowfall accumulations of 10 to 20 cm possible
Winds gusting to 70 km/h will result in blowing snow and travel disruptions

Southern Ontario from Goderich to Oshawa
Brief but intense snow squalls combined with strong winds may create periods of dangerous driving conditions overnight Thursday into early Friday.

Winds gusting to 70 km/h could cause visibility to drop suddenly in blowing snow
Conditions should improve by Friday morning

Prince Edward County
Strong winds will sweep through Friday morning, potentially causing minor damage and tossing unsecured objects.

Wind gusts up to 80 km/h expected

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Southern Ontario
A new low-pressure system is expected to move into the region Saturday afternoon, bringing additional snowfall that will persist into Sunday morning.

Snowfall amounts near 5 cm Saturday evening, with more possible Sunday
Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and track of this system

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Southern Ontario West of Oshawa
The storm system from Saturday will continue into Sunday, bringing a second round of snowfall.

Another 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected Sunday morning
Total snowfall accumulations of 10 to 15 cm possible
Difficult travel conditions anticipated

Southern Ontario North of Lake Ontario
A winter system will deliver a widespread snowfall event beginning Saturday evening and lasting into Sunday morning.

Snowfall accumulations of 10 to 15 cm possible
Uncertainty remains regarding the track, which may impact snowfall amounts

While some uncertainties remain regarding the exact intensity and placement of snowfall, wind gusts, and freezing rain, confidence is increasing that Ontario will experience a prolonged and high-impact winter event. Those with travel plans should closely monitor forecasts, as conditions may deteriorate quickly.

We’ll continue to provide updates as more details become available. Stay safe and stay prepared!

February 04, 2025

Wintry Mix of Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain Threatens Thursday Morning Commute Across Southern Ontario

February 04, 2025/ Brennen Perry

A shift in the weather pattern across Southern Ontario over the past few days has brought a noticeable retreat from the extreme cold, with temperatures returning to near-seasonal values. However, this shift has also placed the region on a more active storm track, a pattern we first experienced with Monday’s messy system.

The next round of unsettled weather was initially showing signs of a prolonged freezing rain event on Thursday. However, recent model trends indicate a significantly weaker system than previously expected. While this storm will still impact Southern Ontario, the main threat now appears to be light freezing rain and snow, particularly during the Thursday morning commute.

Although snowfall totals won’t be overly impressive, Central and Eastern Ontario could see an average accumulation of 4 to 8 cm by the end of the day. The primary concern will be the mix of precipitation types, which could create slushy and icy road conditions, making for a slick and potentially hazardous commute.

Looking ahead to the weekend, we are closely watching a moisture-laden system that could bring Southern Ontario its first true widespread snowstorm of the season. This storm has the potential to impact even those regions that have largely avoided significant snowfall so far, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Current projections suggest snowfall totals could range from 10 to 25 cm, though these estimates will likely be refined as we get closer to the event.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER LAST 6 HOURS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Thursday’s system is expected to begin during the morning hours as light precipitation moves in from the southwest. High-resolution models, such as the American model shown above, suggest that the precipitation will be quite scattered with dry pockets throughout. However, if the precipitation takes the form of light flurries or drizzle, some models may be underestimating its extent.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, precipitation will likely fall as snow. Across the Golden Horseshoe, it may also start as snow during the mid-morning hours before transitioning. Meanwhile, areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and Deep Southwestern Ontario will be more prone to freezing rain and ice pellets from the onset.

Travel conditions could become challenging, particularly in the morning as freezing rain coincides with rush hour across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

At this point, it’s uncertain whether this system will be strong enough to prompt widespread school bus cancellations. However, the highest risk for disruptions will be in Windsor, Chatham, and London, where precipitation is expected to begin earlier in the morning with a higher likelihood of freezing rain.

By early afternoon, precipitation should become more widespread, particularly in Central and Eastern Ontario, as drier areas fill in with moisture. Despite this, snowfall rates are expected to remain manageable, likely staying under 1 cm per hour. However, snow could persist for a solid 6 to 8 hours through the late morning and afternoon, leading to gradual accumulation.

Meanwhile, the freezing rain threat will begin expanding toward Hamilton and the western GTA, with ice pellets potentially mixing in as the transition from snow to freezing rain occurs.

Gradually, precipitation will taper off in Deep Southwestern Ontario, with lingering drizzle as temperatures slowly rise above freezing. This slight warm-up will help melt any ice accretion from earlier in the day.

Across the rest of Southern Ontario, precipitation should wind down by late afternoon or early evening. In the wake of the system, some minor lake-effect snow may develop around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, but we are not expecting any organized lake-effect activity at this time.

While Thursday’s system may be relatively minor, it could serve as a precursor to a much more impactful storm set to arrive this weekend.

Uncertainties remain, and details could shift as we get closer to Saturday. However, all major weather models continue to signal a strong system targeting Southern Ontario late Saturday into Sunday.

The exact track and intensity will determine which areas see the most significant impacts. At this point, current projections suggest a prolonged freezing rain threat for Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. Meanwhile, heavy snow, with potential accumulations between 10 and 25 cm, could affect parts of the Golden Horseshoe, Central Ontario, and Eastern Ontario.

Again, this forecast is subject to change, but this storm has the potential to be a high-impact event for much of Southern Ontario. Stay tuned, as we’ll be providing more detailed updates in the coming days!

February 03, 2025

Bitter Arctic Air and Southern Moisture Will Bring up to 30cm of Snow to the Southern Prairies This Week

February 03, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The pattern of active weather across the Prairies will continue throughout the week with a new system moving in from the United States starting late Monday and continuing until Thursday afternoon.

Arctic air flooded southward following the passage of the storm this past weekend and it will have a significant impact on our incoming system. Very cold temperatures result in much higher snow ratios so what may look like a small amount of moisture actually leads to much greater accumulations of dry snow.

This is the situation we will find ourselves in this week. The incoming system doesn’t contain a great deal of moisture, but the cold temperatures, into the -20°s, will cause a significant amount of lightweight, dry snow to fall. Overall, we’re looking at a possibility of a widespread 20-30cm of snow falling across all three Prairie provinces.

The snow will fall mostly at a fairly light rate, however, the winds are expected to pick up overnight Wednesday in Saskatchewan and spreading into Manitoba through Thursday morning. The winds should peak early Thursday afternoon in Central and Southern Manitoba, gusting at up to 50km/h, before dying down in the evening so there could be a brief period of reduced visibility due to blowing snow.

***Model Image showing the total amount of precipitation in millimetres***

Alberta

Patches of snow will move into Southern Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan late Monday night from North Dakota. It will spread northward throughout the morning, reaching the Edmonton area around the lunch hour Tuesday.

Later Tuesday afternoon, the snow in Central Alberta and parts of Southern Alberta will taper off, but it will gradually return throughout Wednesday morning as the system reorganizes and the snow becomes steadier. The snowfall across the southern half of the province will continue into early Wednesday afternoon, at which point it will start to dissipate from west to east and finally ending Thursday morning before sunrise.

***Model Image showing the location and intensity of snowfall at 5AM MT/6AM CT Wednesday***

Saskatchewan

After moving into Southwest Saskatchewan late Monday night, the patchy snow will spread northward and eastward throughout Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon. At that point, it should reach Lloydminster, as well as into the Saskatoon and Regina areas, but not quite to the Manitoba border.

Similar to what is expected to occur in Alberta, the snow along the leading edge is anticipated to dissipate beginning in the mid-afternoon Tuesday and continuing into the early evening before surging back across the province later in the evening. The reorganized snowfall will be much steadier overnight and through to Wednesday afternoon, possibly becoming heavy at times closer to the American border.

The snow will the begin to taper off in the Southwest early Wednesday afternoon as the system travels eastward, ending in Southern Saskatchewan in the late evening. Steady snow is expected to continue across parts of Central Saskatchewan during this period and will eventually start to dissipate through the pre-dawn hours of Thursday.

***Model Image showing the location and intensity of snowfall at 8PM MT/9PM CT Wednesday***

Manitoba

Snow will move into the Parkland Region from Saskatchewan early Wednesday morning and cross the width of the province thorough the morning and into the early afternoon. At that point, the snow will begin in the Westman region and spread across Southern Manitoba through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

The snow in Southern Manitoba isn’t expected to last too long, with it dissipating from west to east starting in the late evening until the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Like Saskatchewan, the snow will persist across parts of Central Manitoba in the meantime, until early Thursday morning when it starts to taper off. The snow will finally end in Manitoba by noon on Thursday.

February 02, 2025

Willie Is Wrong! February Roars Into Southern Ontario With Up to 10cm of Snow for Central & Eastern Ontario on Monday

February 02, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Wiarton Willie emerged from his burrow on Sunday morning and didn’t see his shadow, predicting an early spring. But as Southern Ontario residents wake up to an active weather pattern, it looks like Mother Nature may have other plans.

A stormy week is ahead, with multiple systems taking aim at the region. The first arrives Monday, bringing a messy mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, and rain. Central and Eastern Ontario will bear the brunt of the snowfall, while areas northwest of the GTA could see prolonged freezing rain.

The most significant concern, however, is a potentially high-impact storm on Thursday. Current model data points to a prolonged freezing rain event for Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, though the exact track remains uncertain. A slight shift north or south could change precipitation types and affected areas.

The first storm system of the week will begin affecting Southern Ontario late Monday morning. Light to moderate snow will spread into Grey-Bruce, Muskoka, Parry Sound, and areas east of Georgian Bay.

At the same time, a light freezing drizzle could develop across parts of the GTA, Kitchener, and London, though it should remain fairly light and not overly impactful. Still, untreated roads and sidewalks could become slick.

By early to mid-afternoon, the storm will intensify, with moderate to heavy snow spreading into Central and Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, Peterborough, and Barrie.

At the same time, freezing rain may become prolonged in a narrow corridor northwest of the GTA, affecting Shelburne, Orangeville, and northern York Region.

Further south, rain will dominate along the Lake Ontario shoreline and into Southwestern Ontario.

As Monday evening approaches, the storm will begin to taper off from west to east. Snow will transition to flurries in Southwestern Ontario around dinnertime, while Central and Eastern Ontario will see precipitation continue into the evening before ending around midnight.

However, freezing rain may linger longer in higher elevations northwest of the GTA, potentially impacting Guelph and Kitchener.

While this storm won’t produce extreme snowfall rates, widespread accumulation is expected across Central and Eastern Ontario. Most areas from Grey-Bruce through Muskoka, Simcoe County, Peterborough, Kingston, Ottawa, and Cornwall will see 5 to 10 cm of snow.

Localized areas near Georgian Bay could exceed expectations, as lake enhancement may fuel pockets of heavier snow, pushing some totals closer to 15 cm. However, confidence remains low in this scenario, so no forecast upgrades have been made to the 10-20 cm range.

South of these regions, snowfall amounts will drop quickly as precipitation transitions to freezing rain and rain. The northern GTA and Durham Region could see 2-5 cm of accumulation, with icing concerns in a narrow corridor stretching from Kincardine through Orangeville, Newmarket, Oshawa, Belleville, and Kingston.

Freezing rain could be persistent, with most areas seeing around 2 mm of ice accretion.

However, in higher elevations like the Dundalk Highlands, up to 4 mm of ice could accumulate, increasing the risk of localized slick conditions.

As Monday’s system moves out, attention turns to a more significant storm later in the week.

A major winter storm is possible on Thursday, with global weather models consistently highlighting the risk of prolonged freezing rain. Right now, Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe appear to be in the bullseye. However, the storm’s track remains uncertain, and even a small shift north or south could drastically alter the precipitation types and affected areas.

A more southerly track would favour a snowstorm for Southern Ontario.
A more northerly track would put Central and Eastern Ontario at risk for significant icing.

Regardless of the final path, Thursday’s storm could bring major disruptions, particularly to the morning commute. Widespread school bus cancellations appear likely based on current data, though details may change as the system evolves.

Stay tuned for updates as we track these storms!

February 02, 2025

Multi-Day Snowfall & Freezing Rain Event Targets Ontario This Week Says Environment Canada

February 02, 2025/ Adam Skinner

A complex and potentially high-impact winter storm is set to affect portions of Ontario this week, bringing a mix of snow, freezing rain, and difficult travel conditions over several days. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of this system, below are the details from Environment Canada’s latest forecast.

Monday: Snow & Freezing Rain for Central & Eastern Ontario

A low-pressure system tracking across Ontario will bring up to 10 cm of snowfall to parts of central and eastern Ontario on Monday. In the afternoon, there is also a risk of freezing rain or freezing drizzle, which could make roadways slick and hazardous.

Hazard: Snow and possible freezing rain
Location: Central and eastern Ontario
Timing: Monday
Confidence Level: Moderate
Potential Impacts: Slippery roads and difficult travel conditions

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE DISCUSSION TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

While this system is not expected to be particularly severe, even a light glaze of ice on top of fresh snowfall can make for treacherous road conditions. Drivers should allow extra time for travel and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions.

Wednesday Evening: Freezing Rain Targets Southwestern Ontario

By midweek, another low-pressure system is expected to track across southern Ontario, bringing the potential for freezing rain across portions of southwestern Ontario. Ice accumulations of 5 to 10 mm could occur, significantly increasing the risk of hazardous road conditions.

Hazard: Freezing rain
Location: Southwestern Ontario
Timing: Wednesday evening
Confidence Level: Low (track and timing uncertain)
Potential Impacts: Significant impacts on rush hour traffic and difficult travel conditions

At this point, uncertainty remains high regarding the exact location and duration of the freezing rain event. However, if ice accumulation reaches the higher end of projections, travel disruptions and potential power outages could be a concern. Stay tuned for updates as more details become available.

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday: Freezing Rain for Southern Ontario

As the system continues moving east, freezing rain may expand into portions of southern Ontario overnight Wednesday and continue into Thursday afternoon. Ice accumulation of up to 5 mm is possible, leading to potentially treacherous conditions during the Thursday morning commute.

Hazard: Freezing rain
Location: Southern Ontario
Timing: Wednesday overnight into Thursday afternoon
Confidence Level: Low (track and amounts still uncertain)
Potential Impacts: Significant travel disruptions during morning rush hour

With temperatures hovering near the freezing mark, even a thin layer of ice could make roads extremely slippery. If the system strengthens, some areas could experience prolonged freezing rain, increasing the likelihood of ice buildup on roads, trees, and power lines.

Thursday: Snow & Ice for Northern Ontario

While southern Ontario deals with freezing rain, northern regions will likely see a combination of snow and ice on Thursday. Areas in eastern and northeastern Ontario could see up to 15 cm of snowfall, along with a risk of freezing rain.

Hazard: Snow and freezing rain
Location: Portions of southern and northern Ontario
Timing: Thursday
Confidence Level: Low
Potential Impacts: Difficult travel conditions, slippery roads, and potential power outages

As with earlier parts of this system, uncertainty remains about the exact track and timing, which will determine snowfall amounts and areas most affected by ice.

Final Thoughts: Stay Alert & Prepare for Winter Hazards

While there’s still uncertainty about exact details, this system has the potential to create dangerous travel conditions across multiple days. With the possibility of accumulating snow, freezing rain, and icy roads, anyone traveling this week should stay informed and plan ahead.

✔️ Check for updates – Weather forecasts will continue to shift and change as new data becomes available.
✔️ Prepare for icy conditions – If freezing rain materializes, roads could become extremely slick, and power outages may occur.
✔️ Allow extra time for travel – Winter storms can lead to slower commutes and dangerous driving conditions.

As always, we’ll be watching this system closely and providing updates as more details emerge. Stay safe and keep an eye on our free Instant Weather app for real-time notifications!

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see. We also zoom them in and add more city & town names for more significant events to ensure our community can quickly determine where they are located on the map and what impacts may affect them.

January 31, 2025

Second Day of Snowfall Expected to Bring Widespread 10-20cm of Snow Across the Prairies on Saturday

January 31, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The first day of our multi-day snow event brought light to moderate snow to all three Prairies provinces by Friday evening. Snowfall totals for the entire event are still expected to top 30cm across a significant portion of the region, with Saturday’s snowfall bringing over 10cm of accumulation to many.

Before discussing what is expected on Saturday, we first need to determine the positioning of the system at approximately midnight. As seen in the model image below for that point in time, snow will still be falling across most of Northern Alberta and along the Rockies. It will also continue to extend southeastward across Saskatchewan and into Southwestern Manitoba.

***Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 11Pm MT Friday/12AM CT Saturday***

Alberta

The snow will continue across Northern Alberta and the Rockies through the early morning hours of Saturday as the entire system continues to travel eastward. There’s expected to be a break in the snowfall for a few hours from Grande Prairie to Cold Lake through the early morning, but that will be followed by a secondary wave of heavier snowfall trailing closely behind.

This additional area of snow will stretch southward into Central Alberta, bringing more snow to Edmonton and possibly even some light flurries across Southern Alberta throughout the day. The snow will cross this part of the province during the morning and afternoon and by the evening, the band of snow will be almost entirely in Saskatchewan. Snowfall totals for Central and Southern Alberta won’t be too high, with most receiving less than 5cm by the end of the day and the last of the snow they can expected from this event.

Later in the morning, we’ll start to see the snow tapering off in parts of Northern Alberta from west to east, bringing accumulation for this area to 5-10cm. The snow will continue to fall further north; in areas like Peace River, High Level, and Fort McMurray; straight into the overnight hours, bringing snowfall accumulations here up to 30cm by the end of the day.

As the snow clears behind the second wave of snow, Arctic air will flood southward and the temperatures will start to fall into the -20°s,

***Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 5Am MT/6AM CT Saturday***

Saskatchewan

The snow will gradually end in Southern Saskatchewan, from west to east, throughout the early morning hours as the system continues to travel eastward. The same can be said further north in the province, but beginning a couple hours later, closer to sunrise, due to the northwest to southeast orientation of the large band of snow.

The second wave of snow from Alberta will cross into Saskatchewan several hours later, in the mid-morning, which will add to the earlier snowfall across much of the province. Southwest Saskatchewan can expect little to no snow from this, but isolated flurries can’t be completely ruled out. Snowfall is, however, anticipated in the southeast corner of the province as it appears this secondary line will see some southward development as it crosses the province.

By the end of the day, a majority of Saskatchewan will have received at least 5cm of snow, with a significant portion over 10cm. Snow will still be falling across most of the province overnight and into Sunday morning, which will add to the total amount received from the event and will be covered in the next forecast.

***Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 11Am MT/12M CT Saturday***

Manitoba

The snowfall isolated to Southwestern Manitoba late Friday will spread eastward across the southern portions of the province through Saturday morning. Snow will also gradually begin to fall moving northward along the Saskatchewan border as the main band of snow continues along the same eastward trajectory.

This snow may be heavy at times, leading to quick accumulation. The lightest snow will be along the southern edge, which can expect less than 5cm total by the end of the day.

In the late morning, areas in the southwest will see the snow start to taper off as the initial band of snow exits the region. There will be several hours of calm before the second wave moves in during the evening. This wave will only make it about halfway across the province before midnight, so only a small area can expect over 10cm of snow total for Saturday.

Sunday

On Sunday, the entire system starts to exit the Prairies followed by temperatures in the -20°s and -30°s across the entire region. There will still be some decent snowfall across the region throughout the day, which we will cover in the forecast that will be posted Saturday evening.

Weather Forecasts & Articles

Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

Key Takeaways:

Monday, February 10, 2025

Sault Ste. Marie North to Montreal River Harbour

Agawa – Lake Superior Park

Regions Southeast of Georgian Bay

The Bruce Peninsula and Areas East of Georgian Bay

Wednesday, February 12 (evening) – Thursday, February 13, 2025

Greater Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario

Southwestern and Central Ontario

North Shore of Lake Erie

Bruce Peninsula and Portions of Central & Northeastern Ontario

Far Northern Ontario (Along Hudson Bay & Manitoba Border)

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Friday, February 7, 2025

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Monday: Snow & Freezing Rain for Central & Eastern Ontario

Wednesday Evening: Freezing Rain Targets Southwestern Ontario

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday: Freezing Rain for Southern Ontario

Thursday: Snow & Ice for Northern Ontario

Final Thoughts: Stay Alert & Prepare for Winter Hazards

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