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A system swept through Southern Ontario on Sunday, bringing with it the first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season. For many, this was the first real taste of winter, and it certainly didn’t hold back. As the system pushes eastward, snow is beginning to taper off in most regions Sunday evening, though parts of Eastern Ontario will continue to see flakes fly past midnight before conditions gradually improve Monday morning.

While the timing of this system makes it less likely to cause major issues for the Monday morning commute, there is still a chance that some regions could see school bus cancellations. The main concern will be how quickly local and rural roads can be cleared before buses head out early in the morning. Road crews will be busy overnight, but areas that received the heaviest snow or where snow continues into the early hours may still be playing catch-up by dawn.

Adding to the challenge, lake effect snow is expected to fire up behind the main system as early as Monday morning and persist through Tuesday, particularly around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Environment Canada has issued snow squall watches for these areas, mentioning the potential for 15 to 30 cm of additional snow, with locally higher amounts possible under stronger squalls. This could lead to sudden drops in visibility and rapidly changing travel conditions.

Because of this, some school boards near the lakes may choose to cancel buses proactively, especially where snow squall watches remain in effect. However, confidence in widespread cancellations is lower at this stage since the heaviest lake effect snow isn’t expected to fully develop until later Monday morning or afternoon.

Based on the forecast and our past experience, the highest chance for a “snow day” is across rural Eastern Ontario, particularly the Frontenac region within the Tri-Board area. We’re giving this region around a 75% chance of cancellations. Snow is expected to linger longest here, and these rural routes are typically slower to clear. The rest of the Tri-Board area, along with the Upper Canada and Renfrew regions, could go either way, earning a 50% chance depending on how quickly road conditions improve by morning.

The City of Ottawa, on the other hand, is less likely to see a snow day. Urban areas tend to handle these events better, and the overall snowfall amounts aren’t expected to reach the threshold that usually triggers cancellations. Still, we’ve placed Ottawa at a 25% chance, since it’s the first major snowfall of the season and even modest totals can cause delays if cleanup efforts fall behind overnight.

Across Southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron snowbelt, bus cancellations are also possible, especially as snow squalls intensify through the day. School boards such as LKDSB, TVDSB, AMDSB, and BWDSB could see anywhere from a 50% to 75% chance of cancellations, depending on where the lake effect bands set up. The heaviest and most persistent squalls are expected along and just inland from the shoreline, particularly around Grand Bend, Strathroy, and Petrolia. The Simcoe West and Meaford areas could also be affected by Georgian Bay lake effect activity, where we’ve assigned a 50% chance.

Outside of Eastern Ontario and the lake effect zones, the risk of a snow day drops off significantly. Most of the Golden Horseshoe, Niagara, and Southwestern Ontario should have more than enough time for roads to be cleared before the morning commute.

That said, temperatures will dip below freezing overnight, which could cause refreezing of slushy or untreated surfaces and create localized icy patches. Even where cancellations aren’t expected, drivers should plan for slower travel Monday morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.