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Environment Canada is calling for a major winter storm to impact Ontario beginning Wednesday, bringing heavy snowfall, ice, and hazardous travel conditions across the province. The storm could arrive earlier than originally expected, affecting the Wednesday evening commute in several regions. High-impact winter weather will persist through Thursday, with lake-effect snow squalls expected to develop late Thursday into Friday.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

Southwestern Ontario to areas northeast of Toronto:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
Impact: Significant impacts on rush hour traffic, snow-covered and slippery roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will move into southern Ontario earlier than initially forecast, with accumulating snowfall beginning in the afternoon. This could lead to deteriorating travel conditions during the evening rush hour, particularly in urban areas. Snowfall will continue through the night into Thursday, with additional accumulations expected.

Areas near and north of Lake Erie:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible significant rush hour disruptions, snow-covered and icy roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will begin Wednesday afternoon but may mix with freezing rain or rain later in the evening. This transition could lead to icy surfaces, increasing travel risks into early Thursday morning. The precipitation type will depend on the storm’s exact track, which remains uncertain.

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

Central and eastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Dangerous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, and transportation delays
Confidence: High
Impact Severity: High

Heavy snow, possibly exceeding 30 to 40 cm in some areas, is expected. Snowfall rates may be intense, particularly on Thursday morning, leading to significant disruptions.

Central, eastern, and northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snowfall totals of 15 to 30 cm are possible, with peak snowfall rates occurring overnight into Thursday morning.

Eastern Ontario near Lake Ontario:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are expected. However, areas closer to Lake Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, limiting total snowfall amounts.

Regions near and east of Lake Huron towards Peterborough:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow, possibly heavy at times, will continue through the morning, with total accumulations of 15 to 25 cm.

Southwestern Ontario towards the Greater Toronto Area:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Potentially difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow will taper off into Thursday morning, but areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, which could result in icy road conditions. Areas that remain all snow may face significant travel impacts Thursday morning.

Northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

This region will be on the northern edge of the storm. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected, but if the system tracks further north, higher totals may occur. Conversely, a more southerly track would result in lower accumulations.

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

Following the main winter storm, lake-effect snow squalls are expected to develop late Thursday into Friday. These squalls could produce intense snowfall rates, strong winds, and poor visibility, further impacting travel.

Southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Strong lake-effect snow squalls could develop, exacerbating travel conditions, especially if significant snowfall occurs with the preceding storm.

East of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, slippery roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Localized snow squalls could develop, with rapidly changing weather conditions.

Near Lake Superior:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, snow-covered roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Lake-effect snow bands are expected to be highly variable, shifting frequently, which should help limit overall accumulations in any one area.

Key Takeaways:

A significant winter storm will impact Ontario Wednesday into Thursday, bringing heavy snow, ice, and hazardous travel conditions.

Urban areas will likely see rush hour impacts Wednesday evening due to an earlier-than-expected arrival.
Snowfall amounts could reach 30 to 40 cm in eastern Ontario, with 15 to 30 cm across much of central and northeastern Ontario.
Areas near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could see ice accumulation due to freezing rain.
Lake-effect snow squalls will follow on Friday, compounding travel challenges.

Be safe, folks! We promise that winter should end sometime around spring… 🥶

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see.