Another Major Winter Storm Looks to Make a Mess of the Maritimes This Weekend

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The latest storm is barely in our rear-view mirror and we’re already looking ahead to the next one. This incoming storm, with a projected track that keeps shifting considerably over the span of a few hours between weather model runs, is slated to hit the Maritimes on Sunday and continue through most of Monday.

Similar to the storm that just hit the region, the next storm will bring a range of precipitation types due to the presence of warm air. Unfortunately, the amount of precipitation with this next storm is expected to be much greater and current projections show up to 60cm of snow possible in Northern New Brunswick and over 10mm of ice accretion across parts of Nova Scotia, PEI, and into Southern New Brunswick.

At this point, there is still some considerable uncertainty regarding the timing, precipitation types and the amount of each expected locally. This will be dependent on the exact path the storm will take as it makes its final approach into the region and how far north the warm air aloft will extend. We hope to have greater clarity of the situation over the next 24 hours and we will provide more details ASAP.

Precipitation Types with temperature profiles

Strong Winter Storm Expected to Bring Over 30cm of Snow and Prolonged Freezing Rain to the Maritimes

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The winter storm that we’ve been tracking is bearing down on the Maritimes and things are going to be messy over the next couple of days. Not only will this storm bring significant amounts of snow to parts of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, but there is expected to be several hours of freezing rain across Nova Scotia.

The storm will make its way into the region at around 9-10am on Thursday, with snow crossing eastward into New Brunswick from Maine and Quebec. The snow will quickly cross the province throughout the remainder of the morning, with the leading edge reaching PEI by 1-2pm.

By the early afternoon, more intense snowfall will begin to fall in New Brunswick. This heavy snow will persist for several hours across most of Central and Northern New Brunswick, at rates of 3-5cm/hr, which will rapidly result in over 30cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of the day.

Prince County, PEI can also expect some heavier snowfall beginning in the mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening, which will lead to overall accumulations of 15-30cm. The heavy snowfall will start to weaken during the evening, but light snow is expected to continue to fall overnight and through early Friday morning across Northern New Brunswick and into PEI.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (Pink), and Ice pellets (Orange) at 5PM AT Thursday

Snowfall totals decrease moving southward through New Brunswick and eastward across PEI because the forecast is a bit more complicated there, along with throughout Nova Scotia. Precipitation will reach the western shores of Nova Scotia at around 10-11am Thursday, not long after it starts in New Brunswick. The leading edge of the storm will see the precipitation start off as light snow as it crosses the province, but it will very quickly transition over to freezing rain, with a brief period of ice pellets in between.

This change in precipitations types will occur as a result of warm air aloft nudging its way into the region from the south. The warmer air will spread across a wide area and will lead to pronged freezing rain over much of Nova Scotia, with upwards of 5mm of ice accretion on untreated surfaces.

Precipitation Types with temperature profiles

The depth of the layer of warm air will play a critical role in precipitation type. As the warm air tries to push further northward, the layer will become shallower and this will lead to a slightly longer period of ice pellets (also called sleet) before it eventually switches over to freezing rain.

This will be the case in Northern Nova Scotia and into Cape Breton Island, as well as with most of PEI and Southern New Brunswick. In these areas, the ice pellets will add to the prior snowfall totals before there is a short-lived period of freezing rain and therefore less ice accretion overall.

Eventually, the warm air will reach the surface and temperatures will climb above freezing, starting in Western Nova Scotia at roughly 2-3pm. This will lead to the precipitation making a final transition from freezing rain to rain for a few hours as the storm continues to cross the region.

The precipitation across the region will taper off throughout Thursday evening. As previously mentioned, some light snow is expected to continue in Northern New Brunswick and PEI overnight, however, freezing rain is also expected to last in Cape Breton into the early morning hours of Friday as well.

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This storm is expected to bring some strong wind gusts to go alongside with the mixed bag of precipitation throughout the Maritimes. The gusts are expected to be the strongest across Nova Scotia, with gusts of 60-90km/h for the duration of the storm across the Mainland and over 100km/h in Northern Cape Breton. In New Brunswick and PEI, winds will be weaker, but gusts up to 60km/h are likely.

Luckily, the temperatures climbing after the freezing rain will help melt the ice buildup off of surfaces, especially from trees and power lines, ahead of stronger winds expected on Friday.

High Impact Winter Storm on the Way for Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday With Up to 40cm of Snow & Freezing Rain

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Confidence is growing that Southern Ontario is on track for what could be the most widespread and significant winter storm of the season so far. That said, there hasn’t been much competition in that regard, as most of this winter’s snowfall has come from localized snow squalls. However, a shift in the weather pattern has placed the region in an active storm track, and Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time delivering a disruptive winter storm right in the middle of the week.

Earlier, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the system, which would have influenced snowfall amounts in different areas. However, in the past 24 hours, forecast models have begun to align on a more consistent storm track. Interestingly, the latest data supports what we initially projected, meaning there hasn’t been a major shift in the forecast.

Widespread snowfall accumulations of 20 to 40 cm are expected from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley between Wednesday and Thursday. In the Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario, precipitation will likely begin as snow, but there is potential for ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain to mix in. This could limit snowfall totals, especially along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, where temperatures may hover near the freezing mark.

For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the extent of mixing remains a key uncertainty. It could go either way. Right now, we’re forecasting 10 to 20 cm of snow, but if the mixing line stays south, snowfall amounts could surpass expectations, reaching 25 to 30 cm.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and extending into the Niagara region, models suggest several hours of freezing rain Wednesday evening and overnight. Some localized areas could see ice accretion of 2 to 5 mm, leading to slippery, untreated surfaces and hazardous road conditions.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The storm is expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon, with scattered precipitation moving into Southwestern Ontario between 2 and 4 PM. While most areas will initially see snow, some models are aggressive in bringing freezing rain into Windsor and Chatham by late afternoon.

Before the main storm arrives, lake-effect snow may develop off Lake Ontario, affecting the Burlington and Hamilton corridor Wednesday morning into early afternoon. System snow should reach the GTA just before the evening rush hour, making for a difficult commute.

The latest model data has also increased wind projections, with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall, this could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Non-essential travel should be avoided starting in the late afternoon, with conditions deteriorating further into the evening.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By mid to late evening, snow will have spread across most of Southern Ontario, including Central and Eastern Ontario. A key feature to monitor will be the movement of the mixing line.

Current data shows a freezing rain corridor stretching from Leamington through Chatham and along the Lake Erie shoreline, with a narrow band of ice pellets from Windsor through just south of London and into Hamilton.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Sarnia, London, Kitchener, and the GTA. Snowfall rates will intensify after 9–10 PM, increasing from 1–2 cm per hour to 2–4 cm per hour. This will make it challenging for snowplows to keep up.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

After midnight, the mixing line may push north into parts of the GTA, bringing ice pellets and freezing rain to locations such as London, Burlington, Mississauga, and Toronto for several hours. However, this transition looks to be confined near the Lake Ontario shoreline, meaning snowfall will likely dominate farther inland.

Freezing rain will continue across Windsor and along the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara region, while heavy snow steadily blankets Central and Eastern Ontario overnight.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The system will begin its exit Thursday morning, with snow tapering off in Southwestern Ontario first. However, snow will continue across Central and Eastern Ontario.

In the Niagara region and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, mixing will remain a concern into the early morning hours. However, by 4–6 AM, colder air will push in, flipping precipitation back to snow. Any previously fallen precipitation may refreeze as temperatures drop, creating hazardous road conditions.

Expect treacherous travel conditions on Thursday morning. Roads will be slushy and icy in areas that saw mixing, while heavy snow will make roads impassable further north. Widespread school bus cancellations and school closures are likely.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Eastern Ontario will hold onto light to moderate snow through the late morning. However, models indicate some potential for mixing in the Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall areas. This could result in light icing from freezing rain before a final transition back to snow.

Most of Southern Ontario will finally see an end to precipitation Thursday, aside from some lingering lake-effect snow near Lake Huron.

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Based on the latest data, the highest snowfall totals will likely be in Central and Eastern Ontario. A widespread 20–40 cm is forecast across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. However, totals closer to 40 cm are most probable in Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, where there’s even a slight chance of locally exceeding 40–50 cm.

Central and Southwestern Ontario, including Grey-Bruce, Kitchener, York Region, Simcoe County, Muskoka, and Peterborough, will likely receive 20–30 cm, with some areas near Lake Simcoe potentially exceeding 30 cm.

The exception will be the Lake Ontario shoreline and the International border, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. Lower snowfall ratios and a higher risk of mixing could keep totals below 20 cm. However, if mixing remains minimal, this area could exceed forecasts.

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The snowfall forecast becomes more uncertain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, where multiple factors create a ‘boom or bust’ scenario. The GTA will start with heavy snow, likely reaching 10 cm fairly easily unless there’s a drastic shift in the storm track. The big question is how much more accumulates beyond that.

Some models suggest that if mixing does not occur, parts of the GTA could see 20–30 cm by Thursday morning. However, given the likelihood of overnight mixing, we expect totals to stay below 20 cm, which is why our official forecast remains at 10–20 cm.

London and Sarnia sit on the boundary between significant snow and mixed precipitation. The most probable outcome is 15–20 cm, though an overperformance remains possible.

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In Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, snowfall amounts will be lower, with less than 10 cm expected. However, these areas will likely see prolonged freezing rain, with the heaviest ice accretion along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Models vary on how intense the freezing rain will be. Some project as much as 10 mm of ice accretion, but this seems unlikely given the presence of mixed precipitation and the relatively short duration of freezing rain. Our official forecast calls for 2–5 mm of ice accretion, though isolated pockets could see 7–10 mm if freezing rain persists longer than expected.

'High' Risk for 30-40 CM of Snow for Ottawa & Parts of Ontario Wednesday to Friday Says Environment Canada

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Environment Canada is calling for a major winter storm to impact Ontario beginning Wednesday, bringing heavy snowfall, ice, and hazardous travel conditions across the province. The storm could arrive earlier than originally expected, affecting the Wednesday evening commute in several regions. High-impact winter weather will persist through Thursday, with lake-effect snow squalls expected to develop late Thursday into Friday.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

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Southwestern Ontario to areas northeast of Toronto:

  • Hazard: Snow

  • Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday

  • Impact: Significant impacts on rush hour traffic, snow-covered and slippery roads

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact Severity: High

Snow will move into southern Ontario earlier than initially forecast, with accumulating snowfall beginning in the afternoon. This could lead to deteriorating travel conditions during the evening rush hour, particularly in urban areas. Snowfall will continue through the night into Thursday, with additional accumulations expected.

Areas near and north of Lake Erie:

  • Hazard: Snow, ice

  • Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning

  • Impact: Possible significant rush hour disruptions, snow-covered and icy roads

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact Severity: High

Snow will begin Wednesday afternoon but may mix with freezing rain or rain later in the evening. This transition could lead to icy surfaces, increasing travel risks into early Thursday morning. The precipitation type will depend on the storm’s exact track, which remains uncertain.

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

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Central and eastern Ontario:

  • Hazard: Snow

  • Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday

  • Impact: Dangerous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, and transportation delays

  • Confidence: High

  • Impact Severity: High

Heavy snow, possibly exceeding 30 to 40 cm in some areas, is expected. Snowfall rates may be intense, particularly on Thursday morning, leading to significant disruptions.

Central, eastern, and northeastern Ontario:

  • Hazard: Snow

  • Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday

  • Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: High

Snowfall totals of 15 to 30 cm are possible, with peak snowfall rates occurring overnight into Thursday morning.

Eastern Ontario near Lake Ontario:

  • Hazard: Snow, ice

  • Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday

  • Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: High

Snow accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are expected. However, areas closer to Lake Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, limiting total snowfall amounts.

Regions near and east of Lake Huron towards Peterborough:

  • Hazard: Snow

  • Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning

  • Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: High

Snow, possibly heavy at times, will continue through the morning, with total accumulations of 15 to 25 cm.

Southwestern Ontario towards the Greater Toronto Area:

  • Hazard: Snow, ice

  • Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning

  • Impact: Potentially difficult travel conditions

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: High

Snow will taper off into Thursday morning, but areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, which could result in icy road conditions. Areas that remain all snow may face significant travel impacts Thursday morning.

Northeastern Ontario:

  • Hazard: Snow

  • Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday morning

  • Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: Moderate

This region will be on the northern edge of the storm. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected, but if the system tracks further north, higher totals may occur. Conversely, a more southerly track would result in lower accumulations.

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

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Following the main winter storm, lake-effect snow squalls are expected to develop late Thursday into Friday. These squalls could produce intense snowfall rates, strong winds, and poor visibility, further impacting travel.

Southeast of Georgian Bay:

  • Hazard: Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Late Thursday into Friday

  • Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: High

Strong lake-effect snow squalls could develop, exacerbating travel conditions, especially if significant snowfall occurs with the preceding storm.

East of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay:

  • Hazard: Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Late Thursday into Friday

  • Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, slippery roads

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: Moderate

Localized snow squalls could develop, with rapidly changing weather conditions.

Near Lake Superior:

  • Hazard: Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Late Thursday into Friday

  • Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, snow-covered roads

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact Severity: Moderate

Lake-effect snow bands are expected to be highly variable, shifting frequently, which should help limit overall accumulations in any one area.

Key Takeaways:

A significant winter storm will impact Ontario Wednesday into Thursday, bringing heavy snow, ice, and hazardous travel conditions.

  • Urban areas will likely see rush hour impacts Wednesday evening due to an earlier-than-expected arrival.

  • Snowfall amounts could reach 30 to 40 cm in eastern Ontario, with 15 to 30 cm across much of central and northeastern Ontario.

  • Areas near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could see ice accumulation due to freezing rain.

  • Lake-effect snow squalls will follow on Friday, compounding travel challenges.

Be safe, folks! We promise that winter should end sometime around spring… 🥶

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see.

Major Winter Storm on Track to Dump Up to 40cm of Snow Across Most of Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday

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Get your shovels ready, Southern Ontario! What many would consider our first true winter storm of the season is on the horizon. This moisture-laden system is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, bringing heavy snowfall across a large portion of our region.

There’s still some uncertainty in the exact track, which will determine who sees the heaviest snow, but confidence is growing that much of Southern Ontario will experience significant impacts from this storm. Travel will likely become hazardous Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and widespread school bus cancellations—and even full school closures—are almost certain on Thursday.

Based on the latest data, the heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley. Accumulations will likely range between 20 to 40 cm, with some localized pockets potentially exceeding 40 cm by the time the snow tapers off early Thursday afternoon.

The most challenging part of this forecast comes down to a narrow corridor from London through Hamilton, into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along the Lake Ontario shoreline, and into extreme Eastern Ontario along the international border. These areas are likely to start off with snow, but depending on the storm’s track, a transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain could occur during the evening and overnight.

The exact snowfall amounts in this corridor remain highly uncertain, as even a fraction of a degree difference in temperature could mean the difference between 5 cm and 30 cm of snow.

The risk of freezing rain also appears significant for areas in deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and communities along the Lake Erie shoreline, where several hours of ice accretion could result in hazardous road conditions and localized power outages.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The storm will begin impacting Southern Ontario on Wednesday afternoon, with the initial bands of snow spreading into deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham, and London. By the mid-to-late afternoon, snow will have moved into Hamilton, Niagara, and the Greater Toronto Area, just in time for the evening commute.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Steady snowfall will continue through the dinner hour, with snowfall rates gradually increasing as the system spreads further across the region. Central and Eastern Ontario will see snow begin around the dinner hour into the early evening, while the Ottawa Valley may not see the first flakes until mid-to-late evening.

Snow will continue throughout the night across much of the region, with varying intensity. Unlike some past storms, this event isn’t expected to bring extreme snowfall rates, with accumulations of around 2 to 4 cm per hour at most. However, the prolonged nature of this storm, lasting 12 to 16 hours in many areas, will allow totals to build up significantly.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Another key factor in determining final snowfall amounts will be how far north the mixing line extends into Southern Ontario. Earlier model runs suggested a more northern track, which would allow warmer air to push into areas along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, leading to a transition from snow to ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain.

However, more recent model data from Monday evening has trended slightly further south, reducing the risk of mixing for some areas. That said, some models, including the American (NAM) and European models, still show a more northern mixing line, which could bring ice and rain into parts of deep Southwestern Ontario, London, and Hamilton.

If this occurs, Windsor and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could see several hours of freezing rain, resulting in ice buildup on untreated surfaces, power lines, and roads.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

On the other hand, the Canadian (RGEM) model, along with the higher-resolution American NAM 3km model, suggest a more southern storm track, which would keep most of Southern Ontario in the snow zone.

If this scenario plays out, snowfall accumulations could be much higher in places like London, Hamilton, and the Golden Horseshoe, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm and minimal mixing.

Some models also indicate the possibility of mixing slightly north of Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence River, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall, which could lower snow totals in these areas. However, the latest data suggests this region may stay entirely on the snowy side of the system.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As the storm progresses overnight, those areas that remain on the snow side will continue to see accumulation through early Thursday morning. Snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 4 cm per hour in heavier bands but will likely average closer to 1 to 2 cm per hour.

Fortunately, winds won’t be particularly strong, with gusts expected to range from 20 to 40 km/h at most. While some blowing snow is possible, full-blown blizzard conditions are not expected with this storm.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By mid-morning Thursday, high-resolution models suggest a final burst of heavier snow around the Golden Horseshoe, Lake Simcoe, and Eastern Ontario. Snowfall rates could briefly spike to 4 to 6 cm per hour as the back end of the system moves through during the morning rush hour.

Travel conditions will likely be very poor on Thursday morning, and all non-essential travel should be avoided. Widespread school bus cancellations are almost a certainty given these conditions.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

A rapid improvement is expected in Southwestern Ontario by late morning, with snowfall tapering off to light flurries. However, it will take time for road crews to clear the heavy snowfall, so road conditions may remain hazardous into the early afternoon.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, snow will linger into the early afternoon before finally winding down around midday for the GTA and Central Ontario and mid-afternoon for the Ottawa Valley.

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By the time the storm wraps up, a broad region across Southern Ontario, including the Lake Huron shoreline, Sarnia, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, and the Ottawa Valley, will likely see between 20 and 40 cm of fresh snow. Mixing is unlikely to be a factor in these areas, though there’s always a slight chance of a last-minute shift in the storm track.

The biggest uncertainty lies within a narrow corridor that includes London, Woodstock, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. This area will likely begin with snow on Wednesday but could see ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain mix in during the late evening and overnight hours, which would reduce total snowfall amounts.

A conservative estimate for this region is at least 10 cm of snow, though some areas, particularly along the northern edge of this zone, could see totals closer to 20 to 30 cm. The current model trends lean toward a slightly more southern storm track, but we are waiting to see if this pattern holds before making final adjustments to the snowfall forecast.

For Windsor, Chatham, and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Niagara, a mix of snow and freezing rain is expected. Some locations could experience several hours of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion of 4 to 8 mm, which may cause localized power outages. However, if the mixing line remains further south, these areas could still end up seeing significant snowfall, possibly exceeding 20 cm.

The bottom line is that while we have high confidence in a significant winter storm, the local impacts will ultimately depend on the storm’s exact track, which may not become fully clear until just before the system moves in.

A more detailed forecast with refined snowfall and freezing rain estimates will be released late Tuesday as newer model data becomes available.

Impactful Winter Storm Possible Says Environment Canada For Parts of Ontario This Week With the Risk of Heavy Snow, Ice, and Dangerous Travel Conditions

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Environment Canada is forecasting a potentially impactful winter storm for parts of Ontario that could bring a mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and dangerous travel conditions. Potentially hazardous winter weather could begin as early as Wednesday evening and continue into the weekend with snow squalls behind the main system. Some areas could see snowfall totals exceeding 30 cm, while others may face icy conditions due to freezing rain. Blowing snow and strong winds could lead to whiteout conditions, power outages, and road closures. While there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the exact track and intensity of this storm, it’s certainly worth discussing and paying attention to over the next few days.

Monday, February 10, 2025

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Sault Ste. Marie North to Montreal River Harbour

  • Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Overnight into Monday

  • Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue through Monday, with some areas receiving an additional 30 cm. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow. Snow squalls will taper off before Tuesday morning.

Agawa – Lake Superior Park

  • Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Afternoon and evening

  • Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls south of the area may move north Monday afternoon, with local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm possible before they shift back south Monday evening. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow.

Regions Southeast of Georgian Bay

  • Hazard(s): Snow

  • Timing: Overnight into Monday afternoon

  • Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue into Monday afternoon, with some areas receiving an additional 20 cm.

The Bruce Peninsula and Areas East of Georgian Bay

  • Hazard(s): Snow

  • Timing: Overnight into Monday

  • Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.

  • Confidence: Moderate

  • Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls ongoing over the Bruce Peninsula will taper off Monday morning. Snow squalls over regions southeast of Georgian Bay will shift north Monday afternoon. Local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm are possible.

Wednesday, February 12 (evening) – Thursday, February 13, 2025

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Greater Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario

  • Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday

  • Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will move in Wednesday evening. Snowfall could be heavy at times, with 15 to 30 cm possible. Blowing snow may reduce visibility. If the system tracks further north, areas along the north shore of Lake Ontario could see ice pellets and freezing rain instead of heavy snow. If it tracks south, snowfall amounts may be lower.

Southwestern and Central Ontario

  • Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday

  • Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 10 to 20 cm, with potential blowing snow reducing visibility. Snow squalls may develop behind the system Thursday afternoon, especially southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

North Shore of Lake Erie

  • Hazard(s): Snow, freezing rain

  • Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday morning

  • Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, icy surfaces on roads and walkways.

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact: High

Details: A mix of heavy snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain is possible, depending on the storm’s track. A more southern track may bring up to 15 cm of snow, while a northern track could result in more freezing rain. Forecast confidence is low, and updates will be necessary.

Bruce Peninsula and Portions of Central & Northeastern Ontario

  • Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow

  • Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday

  • Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures.

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact: Moderate

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 5 to 15 cm, with blowing snow reducing visibility. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

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Far Northern Ontario (Along Hudson Bay & Manitoba Border)

  • Hazard(s): Extreme cold

  • Timing: Wednesday morning

  • Impact(s): Risk of hypothermia and frostbite if outside for prolonged periods without adequate protection.

  • Confidence: Low

  • Impact: Moderate

Details: Wind chill values of -40 to -45 are possible, creating dangerous conditions for exposed skin. Proper winter gear is essential.

While quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding the exact intensity and placement of snowfall, wind gusts, and freezing rain, confidence continues to increase that parts of Ontario will experience yet another high-impact winter event. Those with travel plans should closely monitor for updates as this develops.

We’ll continue to provide updates as more details become available. Stay safe and stay prepared!

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see.

Significant Winter Storm For Parts of Ontario Possible This Weekend Says Environment Canada

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A prolonged and dynamic winter storm is set to impact Ontario beginning Thursday, bringing a combination of heavy snow, strong winds, freezing rain, and hazardous travel conditions across multiple regions. Confidence remains high that this system will bring significant impacts, but uncertainty exists regarding the precise track and intensity of each hazard. Here’s what to expect:

Thursday, February 6, 2025

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East of Lake Superior
A powerful winter storm will bring heavy snowfall, strong winds, and widespread blowing snow, making travel extremely hazardous. Whiteout conditions are possible, particularly in open areas.

  • Wind gusts up to 90 km/h, especially near Lake Superior

  • Widespread snowfall with lake effect snow contributing to accumulations up to 20 cm

  • Power outages likely due to strong winds and heavy snow

  • Winds should ease late Thursday night into Friday morning

Manitoulin Island, Grey/Bruce Region, and East of Georgian Bay
Strong winds and blowing snow will create dangerous conditions across these regions Thursday evening, with near-zero visibility in exposed areas.

  • Wind gusts up to 90 km/h possible near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay

  • Loose snow and strong winds will result in blowing snow and whiteout conditions

  • Winds will ease Thursday night into Friday

North of Lake Superior
A strong snow system will move in during the morning and afternoon, leading to difficult travel conditions.

  • Snowfall amounts up to 15 cm

  • Local blowing snow may further reduce visibility

Northern and Far Northern Ontario
Snow and blowing snow will create hazardous conditions early Thursday morning, with worsening visibility in the afternoon as winds increase.

  • Snowfall amounts up to 10 cm

  • Wind gusts up to 60 km/h will lead to blowing and drifting snow, making travel difficult

Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Golden Horseshoe
A wintry mix of freezing rain and freezing drizzle could create slippery conditions overnight Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.

  • Areas around Windsor are at the highest risk of accumulating freezing rain

  • Icing may also occur across much of southern Ontario due to freezing drizzle mixed with snow

  • Roads and sidewalks could become extremely slick before temperatures rise above freezing later in the day

Northern, Central, and Eastern Ontario
A broad swath of snow will move through these regions overnight Wednesday into Thursday, leading to travel disruptions.

  • Snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm expected

Friday, February 7, 2025

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Areas Southeast of Lake Superior
Lake effect snow squalls will take hold Thursday night and persist into Friday night, producing locally heavy snowfall and whiteout conditions.

  • Snow accumulations of 15 to 25 cm possible

  • Wind gusts up to 70 km/h will create blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility, especially Friday morning

  • Road closures may occur in some areas

Bruce Peninsula and Areas Southeast of Georgian Bay
Similar to regions southeast of Lake Superior, lake effect snow squalls will develop early Friday and continue into the evening.

  • Snowfall accumulations of 10 to 20 cm possible

  • Winds gusting to 70 km/h will result in blowing snow and travel disruptions

Southern Ontario from Goderich to Oshawa
Brief but intense snow squalls combined with strong winds may create periods of dangerous driving conditions overnight Thursday into early Friday.

  • Winds gusting to 70 km/h could cause visibility to drop suddenly in blowing snow

  • Conditions should improve by Friday morning

Prince Edward County
Strong winds will sweep through Friday morning, potentially causing minor damage and tossing unsecured objects.

  • Wind gusts up to 80 km/h expected

Saturday, February 8, 2025

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Southern Ontario
A new low-pressure system is expected to move into the region Saturday afternoon, bringing additional snowfall that will persist into Sunday morning.

  • Snowfall amounts near 5 cm Saturday evening, with more possible Sunday

  • Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and track of this system

Sunday, February 9, 2025

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Southern Ontario West of Oshawa
The storm system from Saturday will continue into Sunday, bringing a second round of snowfall.

  • Another 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected Sunday morning

  • Total snowfall accumulations of 10 to 15 cm possible

  • Difficult travel conditions anticipated

Southern Ontario North of Lake Ontario
A winter system will deliver a widespread snowfall event beginning Saturday evening and lasting into Sunday morning.

  • Snowfall accumulations of 10 to 15 cm possible

  • Uncertainty remains regarding the track, which may impact snowfall amounts

While some uncertainties remain regarding the exact intensity and placement of snowfall, wind gusts, and freezing rain, confidence is increasing that Ontario will experience a prolonged and high-impact winter event. Those with travel plans should closely monitor forecasts, as conditions may deteriorate quickly.

We’ll continue to provide updates as more details become available. Stay safe and stay prepared!

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see.

Wintry Mix of Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain Threatens Thursday Morning Commute Across Southern Ontario

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A shift in the weather pattern across Southern Ontario over the past few days has brought a noticeable retreat from the extreme cold, with temperatures returning to near-seasonal values. However, this shift has also placed the region on a more active storm track, a pattern we first experienced with Monday’s messy system.

The next round of unsettled weather was initially showing signs of a prolonged freezing rain event on Thursday. However, recent model trends indicate a significantly weaker system than previously expected. While this storm will still impact Southern Ontario, the main threat now appears to be light freezing rain and snow, particularly during the Thursday morning commute.

Although snowfall totals won’t be overly impressive, Central and Eastern Ontario could see an average accumulation of 4 to 8 cm by the end of the day. The primary concern will be the mix of precipitation types, which could create slushy and icy road conditions, making for a slick and potentially hazardous commute.

Looking ahead to the weekend, we are closely watching a moisture-laden system that could bring Southern Ontario its first true widespread snowstorm of the season. This storm has the potential to impact even those regions that have largely avoided significant snowfall so far, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Current projections suggest snowfall totals could range from 10 to 25 cm, though these estimates will likely be refined as we get closer to the event.

PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER LAST 6 HOURS - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Thursday’s system is expected to begin during the morning hours as light precipitation moves in from the southwest. High-resolution models, such as the American model shown above, suggest that the precipitation will be quite scattered with dry pockets throughout. However, if the precipitation takes the form of light flurries or drizzle, some models may be underestimating its extent.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, precipitation will likely fall as snow. Across the Golden Horseshoe, it may also start as snow during the mid-morning hours before transitioning. Meanwhile, areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and Deep Southwestern Ontario will be more prone to freezing rain and ice pellets from the onset.

Travel conditions could become challenging, particularly in the morning as freezing rain coincides with rush hour across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

At this point, it’s uncertain whether this system will be strong enough to prompt widespread school bus cancellations. However, the highest risk for disruptions will be in Windsor, Chatham, and London, where precipitation is expected to begin earlier in the morning with a higher likelihood of freezing rain.

PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER LAST 6 HOURS - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By early afternoon, precipitation should become more widespread, particularly in Central and Eastern Ontario, as drier areas fill in with moisture. Despite this, snowfall rates are expected to remain manageable, likely staying under 1 cm per hour. However, snow could persist for a solid 6 to 8 hours through the late morning and afternoon, leading to gradual accumulation.

Meanwhile, the freezing rain threat will begin expanding toward Hamilton and the western GTA, with ice pellets potentially mixing in as the transition from snow to freezing rain occurs.

Gradually, precipitation will taper off in Deep Southwestern Ontario, with lingering drizzle as temperatures slowly rise above freezing. This slight warm-up will help melt any ice accretion from earlier in the day.

Across the rest of Southern Ontario, precipitation should wind down by late afternoon or early evening. In the wake of the system, some minor lake-effect snow may develop around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, but we are not expecting any organized lake-effect activity at this time.

PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER LAST 6 HOURS - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

While Thursday’s system may be relatively minor, it could serve as a precursor to a much more impactful storm set to arrive this weekend.

Uncertainties remain, and details could shift as we get closer to Saturday. However, all major weather models continue to signal a strong system targeting Southern Ontario late Saturday into Sunday.

The exact track and intensity will determine which areas see the most significant impacts. At this point, current projections suggest a prolonged freezing rain threat for Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. Meanwhile, heavy snow, with potential accumulations between 10 and 25 cm, could affect parts of the Golden Horseshoe, Central Ontario, and Eastern Ontario.

Again, this forecast is subject to change, but this storm has the potential to be a high-impact event for much of Southern Ontario. Stay tuned, as we’ll be providing more detailed updates in the coming days!

Willie Is Wrong! February Roars Into Southern Ontario With Up to 10cm of Snow for Central & Eastern Ontario on Monday

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Wiarton Willie emerged from his burrow on Sunday morning and didn’t see his shadow, predicting an early spring. But as Southern Ontario residents wake up to an active weather pattern, it looks like Mother Nature may have other plans.

A stormy week is ahead, with multiple systems taking aim at the region. The first arrives Monday, bringing a messy mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, and rain. Central and Eastern Ontario will bear the brunt of the snowfall, while areas northwest of the GTA could see prolonged freezing rain.

The most significant concern, however, is a potentially high-impact storm on Thursday. Current model data points to a prolonged freezing rain event for Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, though the exact track remains uncertain. A slight shift north or south could change precipitation types and affected areas.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first storm system of the week will begin affecting Southern Ontario late Monday morning. Light to moderate snow will spread into Grey-Bruce, Muskoka, Parry Sound, and areas east of Georgian Bay.

At the same time, a light freezing drizzle could develop across parts of the GTA, Kitchener, and London, though it should remain fairly light and not overly impactful. Still, untreated roads and sidewalks could become slick.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By early to mid-afternoon, the storm will intensify, with moderate to heavy snow spreading into Central and Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, Peterborough, and Barrie.

At the same time, freezing rain may become prolonged in a narrow corridor northwest of the GTA, affecting Shelburne, Orangeville, and northern York Region.

Further south, rain will dominate along the Lake Ontario shoreline and into Southwestern Ontario.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As Monday evening approaches, the storm will begin to taper off from west to east. Snow will transition to flurries in Southwestern Ontario around dinnertime, while Central and Eastern Ontario will see precipitation continue into the evening before ending around midnight.

However, freezing rain may linger longer in higher elevations northwest of the GTA, potentially impacting Guelph and Kitchener.

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While this storm won’t produce extreme snowfall rates, widespread accumulation is expected across Central and Eastern Ontario. Most areas from Grey-Bruce through Muskoka, Simcoe County, Peterborough, Kingston, Ottawa, and Cornwall will see 5 to 10 cm of snow.

Localized areas near Georgian Bay could exceed expectations, as lake enhancement may fuel pockets of heavier snow, pushing some totals closer to 15 cm. However, confidence remains low in this scenario, so no forecast upgrades have been made to the 10-20 cm range.

South of these regions, snowfall amounts will drop quickly as precipitation transitions to freezing rain and rain. The northern GTA and Durham Region could see 2-5 cm of accumulation, with icing concerns in a narrow corridor stretching from Kincardine through Orangeville, Newmarket, Oshawa, Belleville, and Kingston.

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Freezing rain could be persistent, with most areas seeing around 2 mm of ice accretion.

However, in higher elevations like the Dundalk Highlands, up to 4 mm of ice could accumulate, increasing the risk of localized slick conditions.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As Monday’s system moves out, attention turns to a more significant storm later in the week.

A major winter storm is possible on Thursday, with global weather models consistently highlighting the risk of prolonged freezing rain. Right now, Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe appear to be in the bullseye. However, the storm’s track remains uncertain, and even a small shift north or south could drastically alter the precipitation types and affected areas.

  • A more southerly track would favour a snowstorm for Southern Ontario.

  • A more northerly track would put Central and Eastern Ontario at risk for significant icing.

Regardless of the final path, Thursday’s storm could bring major disruptions, particularly to the morning commute. Widespread school bus cancellations appear likely based on current data, though details may change as the system evolves.

Stay tuned for updates as we track these storms!

Multi-Day Snowfall & Freezing Rain Event Targets Ontario This Week Says Environment Canada

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A complex and potentially high-impact winter storm is set to affect portions of Ontario this week, bringing a mix of snow, freezing rain, and difficult travel conditions over several days. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of this system, below are the details from Environment Canada’s latest forecast.

Monday: Snow & Freezing Rain for Central & Eastern Ontario

A low-pressure system tracking across Ontario will bring up to 10 cm of snowfall to parts of central and eastern Ontario on Monday. In the afternoon, there is also a risk of freezing rain or freezing drizzle, which could make roadways slick and hazardous.

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  • Hazard: Snow and possible freezing rain

  • Location: Central and eastern Ontario

  • Timing: Monday

  • Confidence Level: Moderate

  • Potential Impacts: Slippery roads and difficult travel conditions

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While this system is not expected to be particularly severe, even a light glaze of ice on top of fresh snowfall can make for treacherous road conditions. Drivers should allow extra time for travel and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions.

Wednesday Evening: Freezing Rain Targets Southwestern Ontario

By midweek, another low-pressure system is expected to track across southern Ontario, bringing the potential for freezing rain across portions of southwestern Ontario. Ice accumulations of 5 to 10 mm could occur, significantly increasing the risk of hazardous road conditions.

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  • Hazard: Freezing rain

  • Location: Southwestern Ontario

  • Timing: Wednesday evening

  • Confidence Level: Low (track and timing uncertain)

  • Potential Impacts: Significant impacts on rush hour traffic and difficult travel conditions

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At this point, uncertainty remains high regarding the exact location and duration of the freezing rain event. However, if ice accumulation reaches the higher end of projections, travel disruptions and potential power outages could be a concern. Stay tuned for updates as more details become available.

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday: Freezing Rain for Southern Ontario

As the system continues moving east, freezing rain may expand into portions of southern Ontario overnight Wednesday and continue into Thursday afternoon. Ice accumulation of up to 5 mm is possible, leading to potentially treacherous conditions during the Thursday morning commute.

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  • Hazard: Freezing rain

  • Location: Southern Ontario

  • Timing: Wednesday overnight into Thursday afternoon

  • Confidence Level: Low (track and amounts still uncertain)

  • Potential Impacts: Significant travel disruptions during morning rush hour

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With temperatures hovering near the freezing mark, even a thin layer of ice could make roads extremely slippery. If the system strengthens, some areas could experience prolonged freezing rain, increasing the likelihood of ice buildup on roads, trees, and power lines.

Thursday: Snow & Ice for Northern Ontario

While southern Ontario deals with freezing rain, northern regions will likely see a combination of snow and ice on Thursday. Areas in eastern and northeastern Ontario could see up to 15 cm of snowfall, along with a risk of freezing rain.

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  • Hazard: Snow and freezing rain

  • Location: Portions of southern and northern Ontario

  • Timing: Thursday

  • Confidence Level: Low

  • Potential Impacts: Difficult travel conditions, slippery roads, and potential power outages

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As with earlier parts of this system, uncertainty remains about the exact track and timing, which will determine snowfall amounts and areas most affected by ice.

Final Thoughts: Stay Alert & Prepare for Winter Hazards

While there’s still uncertainty about exact details, this system has the potential to create dangerous travel conditions across multiple days. With the possibility of accumulating snow, freezing rain, and icy roads, anyone traveling this week should stay informed and plan ahead.

✔️ Check for updates – Weather forecasts will continue to shift and change as new data becomes available.
✔️ Prepare for icy conditions – If freezing rain materializes, roads could become extremely slick, and power outages may occur.
✔️ Allow extra time for travel – Winter storms can lead to slower commutes and dangerous driving conditions.

As always, we’ll be watching this system closely and providing updates as more details emerge. Stay safe and keep an eye on our free Instant Weather app for real-time notifications!

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see. We also zoom them in and add more city & town names for more significant events to ensure our community can quickly determine where they are located on the map and what impacts may affect them.

Freezing Rain Threatens Icy Sunday Across Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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What previously looked like a possible widespread ice event, according to weather models, has luckily down-scaled and will now only impact a narrow track across parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

A disorganized system will cross into Southeast Saskatchewan from Montana after midnight tonight, travelling northeastward and reaching Manitoba shortly before sunrise. This system will only bring a narrow band of precipitation to the region, but due to the presence of warm air aloft and below freezing temperatures at the surface, this precipitation will fall as freezing rain. The freezing rain will be light and last for several hours, resulting in ice accretion amounts up to 5mm.

Temperature Profiles and Precipitation Types

By around the lunch hour, the freezing rain will start to taper off and transition over to snow. As the entire system pushes eastward, Southern Manitoba will also start to see some snow moving in from North Dakota Sunday afternoon. The system will become more organized throughout the evening and overnight, leading to the development of additional snow in Central and parts of Northern Manitoba. There is still some uncertainty regarding exact snowfall amounts, but it looks like the southern half of the province can expect 5-15cm of fresh snow by the end of Monday.

Rapidly Strengthening Bomb Cyclone Expected to Bring Heavy Rain and Wicked Winds to the Maritimes

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Hang on to your umbrellas! We have an incoming bomb cyclone that is set to not only drench the Maritimes, but bring some intense winds to the region as well. A bomb cyclone is a storm that undergoes rapid intensification, called bombogenesis, that results in a drop in central pressure of at least 24mb over a 24 hour period. A system has begun travelling northward along the American Atlantic Coast and the further north it travels, the stronger it is expected to become under this rapid intensification.

The storm will bring precipitation to the Maritimes in two rounds. It will start off with warm, moisture-laden air being funnelled up from the Gulf along the warm front, leading to temperatures climbing into the double digits. Following a break in the precipitation from the first round, the length of which will be dependent on the distance from the centre of the storm, a second round of rain will move in along the cold front. Behind this cold front, temperatures are expected plummet and will fall below 0°C across New Brunswick, leading to the risk of a flash freeze. Combined, these two rounds of rain will bring a widespread 10-50mm of rain across most of the Maritimes.

New Brunswick

Things in New Brunswick will certainly get messy over the coming days due to this incoming storm. The first wave of precipitation will move into Western New Brunswick around sunrise Wednesday morning. The temperatures will rise with the arrival of the warm front and rain, but there will still be some isolated pockets of cold air near the surface that could persist for several hours, leading to freezing rain. Luckily any ice accretion will quickly melt as temperatures rise.

The rain will continue throughout most of the day and it will start to taper off, from south to north beginning in the evening. Due to its proximity to the centre of the storm, there won’t be a break between to the rounds of precipitation in Northwest New Brunswick. As a result, this is where the highest rainfall amounts of close to 50mm are expected. The rest of the province will start to see this second wave move in from the west overnight. It will lose intensity as it pushes eastward and the heaviest rain will fall over the western half of the province, where 25-50mm of rain is expected overall with the storm and only 10-25mm to the east. This second round won’t last long and will exit the province by the late morning.

There will be a unique problem in New Brunswick that the rest of the Maritimes won’t have to worry about. Some parts of the province have a considerable snowpack over 30cm which will end up melting with temperatures rising into the double digits through the day Wednesday. However, when combined with the amount of incoming precipitation and the ground likely remaining at least partially frozen, standing water and flooding becomes a concern. To make matters worse, the temperatures will drop drastically across most of the province overnight Thursday, to well below the freezing mark, which could lead to a widespread flash freeze.

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Nova Scotia

The scenario across Nova Scotia with this storm will be a little less complicated, in regards to precipitation. The first wave of rain will make its way into Western Nova Scotia in the mid to late morning Wednesday. The rain will be heavy at times across the western half of the Mainland and it will then dissipate across the province through the evening. The second round of rain will then arrive early Thursday morning and is only expected to last 4 hours or so as it crosses the province, before the storm finally makes its way out of the region in the evening. Most of Mainland Nova Scotia and along the South Coast of Cape Breton Island can expect 10-25mm of rain while the rest of the province will see 5-10mm

Prince Edward Island

Prince Edward Island, much like Nova Scotia, has a fairly straightforward forecast with this storm. The first wave of rain will impact the Island starting early Wednesday afternoon and continuing into the evening. Then, the second wave will move in after sunrise on Thursday and cross the Island in the span of 3-4 hours. Rainfall amounts of 10-25mm are likely in Prince and the western half of Queens County and 5-10mm in Kings County and the eastern half of Queens County.

Strong winds will also be a factor with the incoming bomb cyclone. In this model image showing 1:00 AM Thursday, we can get a good look at both the size and structure of the storm, along with the precipitation types and their intensities. What we also see is the projected internal pressure of the storm, in millibars, as well as the lines of equal pressure, in black, known as isobars. Winds are driven by air moving from areas of high pressure to those of low pressure and when isobars are really close in strong storms, as seen in this case, we know that the winds will be quite strong.

The strong winds will start making their way into the Maritimes Wednesday evening and they will peak overnight. The entire region will get hit by sustained winds above 40km/h and gusts over 70km/h, but Western Nova Scotia and Southwest New Brunswick in particular will be hammered by gusts in excess of 100km/h. These will be onshore winds so pounding surf and some coastal flooding are very likely along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia and along the Fundy Coast to the west of St. John starting late Wednesday and continuing through Thursday morning.

Prolonged Freezing Rain Threatens Icy Start to Week for Parts of Southern Ontario on Monday

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December has kicked off with a cold and snowy start across Southern Ontario, as a significant lake-effect snow squall outbreak blanketed parts of the snowbelt over the past week. This wintry weather was accompanied by the season's first blast of Arctic air, bringing wind chills as low as -20°C.

However, a shift in the weather pattern is underway, with milder conditions already spreading into Southwestern Ontario, where Sunday saw daytime highs climbing into the mid to upper single digits.

A weather system is expected to arrive early Monday, bringing warmer air aloft, while near-surface temperatures hover around freezing. This setup creates ideal conditions for freezing rain across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, which, according to the latest data, could last for an extended period.

Freezing rain is expected to begin in the morning hours on Monday, persisting through the afternoon and into the evening. This prolonged event could result in a thin but hazardous layer of ice forming on untreated surfaces such as roads, sidewalks, trees, and power lines, with localized power outages a possibility.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The initial bands of precipitation will move into Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor and London, during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Temperatures in this region will remain several degrees above freezing throughout the day, so precipitation here is expected to fall as rain.

As the system progresses north and east during the morning, it will encounter below-freezing temperatures near the surface in areas like the Dundalk Highlands (including Orangeville and Shelburne) and parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

This will result in the development of freezing rain, creating a zone stretching from Orangeville eastward through York Region, along the higher elevations of the Oak Ridges Moraine, and into southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario.

This band of freezing rain is expected to persist into the early afternoon, with locations such as Barrie, Orillia, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, and Belleville likely experiencing the heaviest impacts.

Further north, areas like Muskoka, Bancroft, and the Ottawa Valley are expected to see a mix of wet snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain beginning early Monday afternoon. While significant snowfall accumulation is not expected for Southern Ontario, enough snow could fall to create slushy and slippery road conditions in these areas.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Freezing rain will begin to taper off in the south later in the afternoon, though freezing drizzle may linger into the early evening. Temperatures are forecast to rise slowly above freezing later in the evening and overnight, which should help melt any accumulated ice, albeit gradually.

In more northern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, heavier freezing rain will persist into Monday evening before ending overnight. However, freezing drizzle may continue in the Ottawa Valley into early Tuesday morning, potentially causing icy conditions for the Tuesday morning commute.

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The most significant freezing rain impacts are expected in a narrow corridor extending around Lake Simcoe and eastward along the Lake Ontario shoreline.

Ice accretion of 2 to 5mm is possible in areas such as Orangeville, Newmarket, Collingwood, Barrie, Orillia, Midland, Bracebridge, Lindsay, Peterborough, Oshawa, Belleville, and Kingston.

For the rest of Central and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, up to 2mm of ice accretion is expected, accompanied by ice pellets and a few centimeters of wet snow.

In the GTA, the greatest impacts from freezing rain will likely occur in the northern and eastern portions of the region. Toronto may experience brief freezing rain during the morning hours, but it is expected to transition quickly to rain, especially closer to the lakeshore.

Steep Drop in Temperatures Will Lead to Flash Freeze Risk This Evening and Freezing Rain Into Wednesday

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It’s been a bit of a weather roller coaster across Southern and Central Alberta over the past several days, with snow and frigid Arctic air late last week to single digit temperatures, melting snow and even some rain falling in the Northern Rockies.

Now, temperatures are expected to plummet later this evening, leading to a risk for a flash freeze along with freezing rain across a swath of the province continuing throughout the day tomorrow.

Warm temperatures across Central and Southern Alberta in the single digits have resulted in the melting of some of the existing snowpack. On top of this, precipitation has already begun to push into the Northern Rockies region of Alberta from British Columbia as a mix of rain and snow this afternoon.

As the precipitation pushes deeper into the province and temperatures quickly fall to just below the freezing mark this evening, not only will the melted snow and slush rapidly freeze, the rain will also transition over to freezing rain, creating very icy conditions. This patch of freezing rain will remain fairly stationary around Grande Prairie into Wednesday morning, leading to ice accretions up to 5mm. At this point, the entire system will begin to push southeastward across the province, bringing light freezing rain along a narrow track throughout the day, adding to the already icy conditions expected from the flash freeze.

To the north of this freezing rain, where temperatures will be slightly cooler, light snow is expected to fall. Snowfall accumulations will also be limited with this system and a widespread 5-10cm is expected.

Winter Roars Into Ontario This Week With Freezing Rain Threat; Snow Squalls Could Dump Up to 50cm of Snow

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While winter has gotten off to a slow start across Southern Ontario, with many areas only seeing their first snowfall within the past week or two, it seems that change is on the way. November is shaping up to go out like a lion, as Mother Nature makes up for lost time.

A significant pattern shift is expected to bring the threat of freezing rain late Monday across Central and Eastern Ontario. This will be followed by multiple weaker systems across the Great Lakes region and colder air flooding into the province.

That colder air will set the stage for what could become our first major snow squall event later this week and into the weekend. In some typical snowbelt areas, snowfall could be measured in feet (30+ cm) by this time next week!

Let’s break down what is shaping up to be a very dynamic and active forecast over the next five to seven days, starting with the freezing rain threat.

Freezing Rain Risk: Monday into Tuesday

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

A system is expected to move into Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe beginning Monday afternoon. With temperatures forecasted to stay well above freezing in these areas, precipitation will fall as rain.

However, as the system moves northeast into Central and Eastern Ontario after midnight, it will encounter a stubborn layer of colder air near the surface. Temperatures hovering near or just below freezing may allow some of the rain to fall as freezing rain overnight into early Tuesday morning.

There remains some uncertainty about how widespread this pocket of cold air will be. Higher-elevation areas of Central and Eastern Ontario, including Bancroft, Barry’s Bay, and Algonquin Park, are most likely to experience freezing rain. It’s also possible for freezing rain to extend westward to Muskoka and Parry Sound, and eastward into the Ottawa Valley, including the City of Ottawa.

For Bancroft, Barry’s Bay, and Algonquin Park, ice accretion totals could reach 2-4 mm by Tuesday morning, though any ice will quickly melt after sunrise as temperatures rise above freezing by late morning. In Muskoka and the Ottawa Valley, a thin layer of ice on untreated surfaces is possible, which could make for a slow Tuesday morning commute. There is a slight chance of school bus cancellations in affected areas.

Northern Ontario: Heavy Snowfall Ahead

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Northern Ontario will experience heavy snow from this same system, as colder air dominates in the region. Light to moderate snowfall is expected to begin in Northwestern Ontario by early Monday afternoon, gradually spreading eastward into the evening and overnight.

Snow will continue across Northern Ontario throughout Tuesday, with the heaviest snowfall expected near the Quebec border in Northeastern Ontario. Snowfall will gradually ease later on Tuesday and into early Wednesday but could persist near James Bay in a zone extending from Hearst to Lansdowne House.

Over three days, snowfall totals will generally range from 10 to 20 cm across Northern Ontario. Far Northern Ontario near James Bay could see totals exceeding 20 cm by Thursday, while lake-enhanced snowfall southeast of Lake Superior, including Sault Ste. Marie, could push totals closer to 30 cm.

Thunder Bay is expected to see slightly less snow, as the city may end up in a drier part of the system. Forecasts currently suggest snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm in this area.

Southern Ontario: Cold Air and Lake Effect Snow

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As the system moves out of Southern Ontario late Tuesday, a surge of cold air will follow in its wake. This will briefly activate the lake effect snow machine around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay beginning Tuesday evening and lasting into Wednesday.

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At this time, temperatures are expected to hover near the freezing mark, which could limit significant accumulation. The most likely target zone for this initial burst of lake effect snow includes areas east of Georgian Bay, such as Parry Sound, Huntsville, and Bracebridge. These areas could see 10-15 cm, with localized amounts of up to 20 cm by the time snow bands taper off Wednesday evening.

For higher elevations southeast of Owen Sound, including Hanover, Markdale, Shelburne, and Orangeville, up to 5-10 cm of snow is possible, as cooler temperatures in these areas will allow snow to accumulate more easily. Surrounding regions, including parts of the Greater Toronto Area, may see just a few light flurries.

End of the Week: A Snow Squall Event Looms

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Lake effect snow will temporarily pause as another system slides through the Great Lakes region. However, this system appears to stay largely south of the border, bringing only a few flurries or light showers to areas near Lake Erie and the Golden Horseshoe early Thursday.

As we approach the weekend, Southern Ontario will see its coldest air of the season so far, with overnight lows plunging to several degrees below freezing across much of the province.

A dominant westerly to northwesterly wind is expected to develop Friday and persist into the weekend. This setup will create ideal conditions for intense snow squalls off Lake Huron, Lake Superior, and Georgian Bay starting Friday afternoon and lasting through the weekend.

These snow squalls could bring significant snowfall totals, blowing snow, and near-zero visibility to localized areas in the snowbelt. Travel could become difficult or even dangerous in the hardest-hit regions.

Based on the current forecasted wind direction, regions including Kincardine, Owen Sound, Hanover, Midland, Oro, Orillia, and Gravenhurst are likely to see the heaviest impacts. This also extends up into Northern Ontario around the Lake Superior shoreline with Sault Ste. Marie in the bullseye. Some locations within this zone could receive up to 50 cm of snow by the end of the weekend.

Snow Squall Uncertainty

It’s important to note that snow squalls are highly localized events, and not everyone will experience intense snowfall totals. One area may receive significant snow accumulations, while locations just a few kilometres away might see only a dusting.

Confidence is high that some sort of snow squall event will occur, but exact locations will depend on the finer details of wind direction and temperatures.

CREDIT: Environment CANADA

Environment Canada has also mentioned the potential for significant snow squalls later this week:

The first significant lake effect snow of the season is likely beginning Friday. This has the potential to be a highly disruptive and prolonged event for areas near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay and eastern Lake Superior. While confidence is medium to high that lake effect snow and blowing snow will occur, confidence in exact locations to be affected as well as snowfall accumulations is low. As is normally the case in these situations, snowfall amounts will be highly variable. Some areas may see well in excess of 50 cm by the end of the weekend. - Environment Canada

Stay tuned for updated forecasts in the coming days as higher-resolution models provide more details. We’ll refine the snow squall forecast and pinpoint areas most at risk.

Retrograding Storm Will Bring a Freezing Rain Threat To New Brunswick Friday

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It’s been an extended wet stretch through the Maritimes lately and that pattern is set to continue over the next couple of days. A low pressure system that has been bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Newfoundland has begun to retrograde and travel westward towards the Maritimes, where it is expected to bring even more rain to the already soggy region starting later tonight.

Most of the Maritimes can expect steady rain, that could be heavy at times, throughout the day Friday and into Saturday, with a widespread 5-30mm falling across the region and up to 50mm possible in the Cape Breton Highlands.

The leading edge of this storm, however, will encounter cool air over land in New Brunswick, with temperatures hovering around 0°C or just below, resulting in freezing rain falling for up to several hours. The freezing rain will begin in the early morning hours and gradually spread westward throughout the morning. As temperatures climb throughout the day, the freezing rain will transition to rain, but surfaces will still be quite slick with a thin layer of ice.

Up to 2mm of ice accretion can be expected across most of the province and closer to 4mm could be seen in the northwest where the cooler air will persist, leading to 4-6 hours of freezing rain. Areas along the eastern coast look like they will be spared from the freezing rain since temperatures are expected to stay a few degrees above freezing overnight. Make sure to take extra caution when travelling along icy roads and sidewalks tomorrow morning.