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A messy mix of wintry weather is set to move into Southern Ontario early Thursday morning, bringing a mix of snow and freezing rain depending on location. The exact impacts will vary widely across the region, with mainly light snow expected in Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas further south, particularly in Southwestern Ontario, face a higher risk of prolonged freezing rain.

Environment Canada has issued a Freezing Rain Warning for Windsor and Chatham, indicating hazardous travel conditions in these areas. With freezing rain expected to be falling right during the morning bus run, there is a strong likelihood of school bus cancellations in these regions.

The probability of cancellations decreases significantly as you move further north, where freezing rain is less of a concern. Instead, a mix of snow and ice pellets is expected, but accumulation may not be enough to meet the threshold for widespread bus cancellations.

That said, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out. As a result, we’ve assigned a very low chance of school bus cancellations across Central and Eastern Ontario. There remains a small possibility that a few isolated school boards may decide to cancel buses, particularly if Environment Canada issues a Winter Weather Travel Advisory or other alert overnight.

One key factor is that most of the snowfall accumulation will occur after school bus decisions are made early in the morning. This makes proactive cancellations less likely, especially since projected snowfall totals are expected to remain in the 5 to 10 cm range. Unless conditions deteriorate more than currently forecast, school boards will likely proceed as usual.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Greater Essex County District School Board
Lambton Kent District School Board (Chatham)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Lambton Kent District School Board (Sarnia & Lambton)
Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Elgin)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (City of London & Oxford)
Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)
Grand Erie District School Board
District School Board of Niagara (South)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)
STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)
Waterloo Region District School Board
Peel District School Board (North)
Halton District School Board (North)
District School Board of Niagara (North)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.