Messy End to the Beautiful Week Across Southern Ontario With Heavy Rain, Significant Freezing Rain and Strong Wind Gusts on Friday

Mother Nature has given us quite the treat the past week with extremely mild temperatures that we normally see towards the end of spring or even early summer. Although as we end of the week we’re looking at quite the messy system to affect Southern Ontario with mainly heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts on Friday. For areas further north through parts of Central Ontario and Northeastern Ontario, the main concern will be the potential for significant freezing rain along with some wet snow starting early Friday morning and continuing throughout the day. This will result in icy driving and even the threat of power outages in the hardest-hit regions.

Precipitation will begin to work into the province just before the midnight hour starting as rain along the Lake Erie shoreline. The heaviest rain is expected through Friday morning and afternoon and will start to become less intense later in the day. We will also see colder air flood into the province during the evening on Friday which may result in a few hours of wet snow in some areas although no accumulation is expected outside of Central and Northeastern Ontario since the ground will still be quite wet and warm. We expect total rainfall accumulation to range from 20-30mm in most areas although localized amounts in the heavier bands of precipitation may approach 40-50mm.

Precipitation will come to an end by late Friday as the system moves out over Quebec. It should also be noted that the rain will be accompanied by strong to damaging wind gusts approaching 70-80km/h in much of Southern Ontario. Wind gusts over 90km/h are possible for the northeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario and Erie including the Niagara Region and Prince Edward County. A separate wind map will be issued tonight for Friday morning.

There will also be a wintery component to this system although that will be focused on far northern sections of Central Ontario extending into parts of Northeastern Ontario. A heavy band of freezing rain will develop early Friday morning stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through areas north of Muskoka and into Algonquin Park. The hardest-hit regions could see around 6-12mm of ice accretion although the limited timeframe of this event should keep overall impacts from being too significant. Surrounding regions including Parry Sound and North Bay could see a few hours of freezing rain although it will likely be more of a messy mix including snow, ice pellets and regular rain depending on the temperature. Later in the day, we expect a switch over to heavy wet snow particularly for the North Bay/Powassan area where it’s more elevated. Some data suggests accumulation of over 15cm although we believe this is overdone and much of it will likely come down as ice pellets or melt on contact. Still expecting around 6-12cm of accumulation in the hardest-hit regions, but again the exact amount is unclear and is highly dependent on precipitation type and temperature.

In the wake of this system, we expect temperatures will be much colder than we’ve seen the past week. Overnight temperatures on Friday could drop below the freezing mark in many areas through Southern Ontario. Daytime highs throughout the weekend won’t be super chilly staying within the mid to upper single digits although it’s unlikely we’ll see many double-digit highs (maybe for Extreme Southwestern Ontario).

Widespread Wind Storm Likely and Marginal (Low) Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Today

It will also be an active day weather-wise across Southern Ontario as a system moves into the region. Scattered rain showers will be ongoing throughout the day although it won’t be constant and actual rainfall totals will be below 10mm for most areas. Something we’re also watching is the risk of our first thunderstorm of the year which could bring heavy rain, a few lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and small hail. We're actually also seeing a low and somewhat questionable risk for brief, isolated tornadoes.

Considering we had 42 confirmed tornadoes in 2020 in Ontario, this shouldn't come as a big shock to anyone, even this early in the season. However, a few particular models have been consistent on the potential and we feel it's worth mentioning, especially with these substantial wind gusts we'll be experience while these storms are occurring. We’re working hard on a thunderstorm map and we’ll get that out ASAP.

Strong to damaging wind gusts will be a big concern throughout the province with gusts ranging from 80-95km/h in most areas. A few spots could stay under 80km/h but it will still be a very gusty day. A zone including parts of Grey-Bruce counties and into the Dundalk Highlands may see gusts approach 100km/h mainly along the Georgian Bay and Lake Huron shoreline.

All good things must come to an end though as colder air is expected to return late Thursday into Friday. This will drop temperatures back to below the freezing mark setting the stage for a pretty chilly weekend. Morning low on Saturday could come near -10°C in some areas!

We’re only a few days into the start of meteorological spring and Mother Nature is wasting no time with leaving the winter we had (which wasn’t much) and pushing Southern Ontario right into spring-like weather this week. This will especially be true for Thursday as we’re expecting the warmest air of the year to invade the region bringing temperatures into the upper teens and perhaps even near 20°C. Although before you get too excited for a chance to go out and enjoy these temperatures, the warmer temperatures will be accompanied by some rain (maybe even the chance of a thunderstorm) along with strong wind gusts between 80-95km/h. There should be a few hours without rain in some areas so you should hopefully still be able to get out there but don’t plan on a whole day of beautiful weather.

Many regions across Southern Ontario are already basking in some warm air on Wednesday with the temperature reaching into the low to mid-double digits. Temperatures will cool down somewhat overnight as is usual once the sun goes down and daylight heating into factored in, but the mild temperatures will return Thursday afternoon likely a few degrees higher than Wednesday. Widespread daytime highs throughout Southern Ontario will range from around 15-20°C and even some areas around the Golden Horseshoe and into Extreme Southwestern Ontario could come near 20 °C.

Areas further to the north including Central and Northeastern Ontario will see temperatures in the upper single-digit to the low double digits. It should be noted that there is some disagreement in the models exactly how warm it will be with some suggesting similar temperatures as we saw on Wednesday. So far this week, actual temperatures have been higher than what most models indicated so we believe that will continue. If we see more rain on Thursday it could keep the temperature down into the low teens instead of the upper teens.

Widespread Wind Storm Likely and Marginal (Low) Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Today

It will also be an active day weather-wise across Southern Ontario as a system moves into the region. Scattered rain showers will be ongoing throughout the day although it won’t be constant and actual rainfall totals will be below 10mm for most areas. Something we’re also watching is the risk of our first thunderstorm of the year which could bring heavy rain, a few lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and small hail. We're actually also seeing a low and somewhat questionable risk for brief, isolated tornadoes.

Considering we had 42 confirmed tornadoes in 2020 in Ontario, this shouldn't come as a big shock to anyone, even this early in the season. However, a few particular models have been consistent on the potential and we feel it's worth mentioning, especially with these substantial wind gusts we'll be experience while these storms are occurring. We’re working hard on a thunderstorm map and we’ll get that out ASAP.

Strong to damaging wind gusts will be a big concern throughout the province with gusts ranging from 80-95km/h in most areas. A few spots could stay under 80km/h but it will still be a very gusty day. A zone including parts of Grey-Bruce counties and into the Dundalk Highlands may see gusts approach 100km/h mainly along the Georgian Bay and Lake Huron shoreline.

All good things must come to an end though as colder air is expected to return late Thursday into Friday. This will drop temperatures back to below the freezing mark setting the stage for a pretty chilly weekend. Morning low on Saturday could come near -10°C in some areas!

We’re only a few days into the start of meteorological spring and Mother Nature is wasting no time with leaving the winter we had (which wasn’t much) and pushing Southern Ontario right into spring-like weather this week. This will especially be true for Thursday as we’re expecting the warmest air of the year to invade the region bringing temperatures into the upper teens and perhaps even near 20°C. Although before you get too excited for a chance to go out and enjoy these temperatures, the warmer temperatures will be accompanied by some rain (maybe even the chance of a thunderstorm) along with strong wind gusts between 80-95km/h. There should be a few hours without rain in some areas so you should hopefully still be able to get out there but don’t plan on a whole day of beautiful weather.

Many regions across Southern Ontario are already basking in some warm air on Wednesday with the temperature reaching into the low to mid-double digits. Temperatures will cool down somewhat overnight as is usual once the sun goes down and daylight heating into factored in, but the mild temperatures will return Thursday afternoon likely a few degrees higher than Wednesday. Widespread daytime highs throughout Southern Ontario will range from around 15-20°C and even some areas around the Golden Horseshoe and into Extreme Southwestern Ontario could come near 20 °C.

Areas further to the north including Central and Northeastern Ontario will see temperatures in the upper single-digit to the low double digits. It should be noted that there is some disagreement in the models exactly how warm it will be with some suggesting similar temperatures as we saw on Wednesday. So far this week, actual temperatures have been higher than what most models indicated so we believe that will continue. If we see more rain on Thursday it could keep the temperature down into the low teens instead of the upper teens.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, March 1, 2021

Snow squall watches currently in effect around parts of Georgian Bay and Lake Huon could lead to some bus cancellations with squalls expected to develop in time for the afternoon bus run. Although the probability isn’t very strong and we might not see any cancellations at all on Monday. For other areas, there is a very low chance for cancellations due to the potential for some icy roads as temperatures dip below the freezing mark early Monday morning.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, February 24, 2021

An Alberta Clipper is expected to spread heavy snowfall throughout northern parts of Central and Eastern Ontario with the heaviest snow occurring just in time for the afternoon bus run. As a result, we do expect a few bus cancellations on Wednesday although there is a level of uncertainty because it will require the school board or bus consortium to consider the conditions in the future rather than just in the morning which will likely not be that bad. The highest probability exists through the North Bay and Parry Sound region where the school board tends to pay more attention to current weather alerts so we’ve given them a 75% chance of a snow day. All other regions through Central and Eastern Ontario range from a 25-50% chance with a lower probability outside of the current Environment Canada weather statement. The rest of Southern Ontario has a less than 5% chance of a snow day with little snowfall accumulation expected during the day on Wednesday.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Alberta Clipper To Bring a Quick Burst of Heavy Snow to Parts of Central and Eastern Ontario on Wednesday With Up to 12-20cm

An Alberta clipper is expected to bring heavy snow across northern parts of Southern Ontario starting Wednesday late morning and continuing through the afternoon. Those further south around Lake Ontario and Erie will see a mixed bag of light precipitation although the bulk of the precipitation will be focused on areas to the north of Lake Simcoe. A few millimetres of rain or some flurries depending on the temperature is what most can expect outside of the impacted region.

The worst conditions will be found stretching from Manitoulin Island through the North Bay/Parry Sound region and into parts of Eastern Ontario along the Quebec border. Rapid snowfall accumulation will be ongoing in this area during the afternoon hours likely having a significant impact on the evening commute. There is some disagreement on the exact track of this system with some of the latest data suggesting a slightly more southern track that could push the heavy snowfall potential as far south as Ottawa and Muskoka.

When it comes to the expected accumulation from this event, the highest totals will approach the 15cm mark and perhaps locally as much as 20cm stretching from Britt to Algonquin Park and into the Petawawa and Pembroke area. Other parts of Central Ontario into the Ottawa Valley including Muskoka, Parry Sound, Bancroft and Ottawa are currently on track for generally around 6 - 12cm.

Keep in mind that some spots may under or over-perform the forecast depending on the exact track. Outside of Central and Eastern Ontario, the expected accumulation will be minimal with just flurries in most areas or some rain showers for those that are above the freezing mark. The precipitation will begin to taper off late Wednesday as the system moves out of the province.

After reviewing how the last system played out in regards to bus cancellations, we're pretty confident in saying that there likely will be some bus cancellations with the threat of heavy snowfall that could impact the afternoon bus run. So we will be issuing a bus cancellation forecast very shortly to outline exactly which regions we think have the best shot at seeing a 'snow day' tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Mixed Bag of Precipitation for the Island

Valid: Tuesday February 16, 2021

Warnings have now been posted across the Province, and the models are still not in total agreement, but what can be seen is an entire mixed bag of precipitation will be makings it’s way here on Tuesday.

TIMING:

Snow will begin sometime before 8am on Tuesday across the entire Island. By the noon hour that snow will change over to ice pellets and by late afternoon it will change over to freezing rain. Precipitation should end near midnight.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

Snowfall accumulations we can expect to see before change overs to ice pellets and freezing rain.

SNOWFALL

Prince County – 10-15 cm

Queens County – 10-15 cm

Kings County – 10-15 cm

ICE PELLETS

Prince County - 1-5 cm

Queens County - 1-5 cm

Kings County - 5-10 cm

FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION

Prince County - 5-10 mm

Queens County - 1-5 mm

Kings County - 1-5 mm

WIND:

Winds will gradually increase through the day and be stronger during the evening hours of Tuesday. Overall, wind should be 20-40 km/h with gusts of 40-60 km/h in the early evening hours.

TEMPERATURE:

Temperatures will gradually increase throughout the day Tuesday. Starting the day around -6 to -8C and ending the day in Prince County near -4c, Queens County near 3C and some areas of Kings county could see it reach near 7C near midnight.

Current models are indicating that Kings County and most of Queens County could see a change over to rain around 6-8 pm. Any shift in the front could vary the precipitation type and quantities.

We will continue to monitor this system and keep you updated with any significant changes.

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas.

Storm chip Probability: 40%

IWPE Team (Mike S, Harry S)

Another Wintery Blast on the Way for New Brunswick

Valid: Tuesday Feb 16, 2021

The latest blast of winter will arrive in the Province just before daybreak on Tuesday. Snow will quickly move across the entire Province. There will be a change over to ice pellets for southern and central nb late morning on Tuesday that will continue until around 6pm.

Southern NB will see the ice pellets change to freezing rain mid afternoon and could see accretion amounts of up to 10mm.

Snow will continue in Northern NB through the day and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.

Total accumulations by early Wednesday could be:

Southern NB 10-15 cm

Central NB 15-20 cm

Northern NB 20-30 cm

As always, be safe and let us know what you're experiencing in your area.

Storm chip probability: 60%

~ IWNB team,

Mike & Harry

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, February 16, 2021

A significant snowstorm is set to bring widespread snowfall accumulation between 20-30cm across Southern Ontario overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Schools are scheduled to return to regular in-person learning on Tuesday for the rest of the regions not yet fully open. But that will likely have to wait for another day as it’s very hard to see how school busses will be able to safely operate in this weather which will likely be probably the strongest storm many locations have seen in at least a year. Almost all of Southern Ontario with a few exceptions through Central and Northeastern Ontario will almost certainly see school bus cancellations and school closures (in some school boards this is automatic due to the pandemic where buses are cancelled).

The probability of school bus cancellations decreases as you go further to the north with less snow expected. For the Muskoka and Parry Sound region, there isn’t a warning in effect from Environment Canada currently but we still expected between 10-20cm of snow overnight. This should be enough to result in cancellations, but it’s not guaranteed.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Messy Winter Storm With Prolonged Freezing Rain Risk To Impact Nova Scotia on Tuesday

The same storm that has brought record-breaking winter weather to much of the US is expected to also affect Nova Scotia throughout the day on Tuesday. The current track of the low-pressure system puts it right across the central part of the province so unlike the last storm which we were on the cold side, this one will be quite a mess starting off with some snow, ice pellets and freezing rain early Tuesday and transitioning over to rain as temperatures climb above the freezing mark.

The freezing rain risk is expected to be more prolonged further to the north and inland from the shoreline. Ice accretion could range from 6 -12mm in the hardest-hit regions which may result in hazardous driving conditions and localized power outages. Conditions will improve later in the day on Tuesday as all areas switch over to rain with temperatures into the mid to upper single digits by the evening.

The first bands of precipitation associated with this system will reach the southern part of the province just before sunrise on Tuesday. For the Yarmouth and Shelburne area, a few hours of freezing rain is possible before a switch over to rain later in the morning. Areas further to the north including Digby, Greenwood/Kentville and Halifax will see some light snow to start off the morning with some ice pellets and freezing rain mixing in during the late morning and heavier freezing rain for a few hours.

Northern Nova Scotia such as Amherst, Antigonish and Cape Breton could see a few hours of heavy snow during the morning - especially in the Amherst area may accumulate with up to 10cm of snow. They will transition over to the heavy freezing rain during the mid the late afternoon hours. This freezing rain may be quite intense and times with very poor conditions through the northern part of the province.

By the evening, it will feel like a whole different season as warmer temperatures take over across the province and putting an end to any of the wintery precipitation. Some parts of the southern part of the province may even flirt with the double digits during the early overnight hours. Rain will continue overnight will slowly tapering off as the system moves out over Newfoundland.

Accumulation from the morning snow will fairly insignificant considering it will be washed away by the rain, but wouldn’t be surprised to see up to 5-10cm around the Amherst area. The rest of Nova Scotia will see a few centimetres max. The main story of this system will be the potential prolonged freezing rain risk through the northern part of the province. Between 4-8 hours of persistent heavy freezing rain could lead to a fairly significant ice build-up through Amherst, Truro, New Glasgow and Western Cape Breton. Maximum ice accretion of between 6-12mm and maybe locally up to 15mm is expected in this region.

Other areas away from the shoreline could see a few hours of heavy freezing rain with around 2-6mm of ice accretion - this may include the Halifax Matro region, but they’re right on the line. Southern parts of the province will see minimal freezing rain with predominantly just heavy rainfall. Speaking of rain, totals between 10-25mm are possible with locally up to 35mm in the Yarmouth region. Between 5-15mm of rain is possible after all the freezing rain for the rest of the province.

SNOWSTORM TIMELINE: Rapid Snowfall Accumulation & Blowing Snow Will Make Travel Near-Impossible Late Monday Into Tuesday Morning Across Southern Ontario

What will likely be the most notable snowstorm of the season so far is expected to bring a quick, but intense blast of heavy snow to almost all of Southern Ontario. Strong wind gusts in all regions between 40-70km/h will be a big concern and will likely lead to blowing snow and even localized blizzard accumulation. Travel should be avoided until later on Tuesday if possible. Total accumulation but the end of Tuesday will range from 20-35cm in the hardest-hit regions from Windsor/London through the GTA and into Eastern Ontario. For more details on the accumulation, please check out our complete forecast HERE.

Some light snow will continue to be found around the GTA during the noon hour as the first wave slowly tapers off. The second round will begin between 7-10 pm with the heaviest snow reaching the region during the late evening and continuing overnight into Tuesday morning. Hourly snowfall rates of between 3-6cm are possible during the 5-10 hour timeframe so the snow will rapidly accumulate. Snow will become lighter just after sunrise as the system exits the region.

For Southwestern Ontario, the snow will start a little earlier around the dinner hour as the first bands cross Lake Erie and make their way northward. Heavy snow with rates between 2-5cm will be found during the mid to late evening and into the early overnight hours. The heavy snow will transition over to lighter snow just before dawn on Tuesday with some lake effect snow lingering around the Owen Sound and Meaford area past the noon hour.

Eastern Ontario will be the last to see the first bands of the second round reach them which is expected to start around 9-11 pm for most. The light snow will turn to heavier snow especially near the Kingston and Cornwall area closer to the American border where intense snowfall rates near 5cm per hour could be found. These heavier bands will come to an end during the late morning with flurries continuing into the afternoon.

Central Ontario will be right on the edge with this system so areas further to the south and east will see the heavier snow for a longer time. Snow will start during the late evening and continue overnight into Tuesday morning. Again, some lake effect snow will linger around the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay into Tuesday afternoon.

Significant Freezing Rain Possible on Tuesday for Parts of Nova Scotia; Up to 10-15mm of Ice Accretion

A complex system currently bringing crippling winter weather to parts of the US Midwest including record-breaking snowfall to Oklahoma and Texas along with prolonged freezing rain through the Ohio Valley. This system will track up the East Coast bringing heavy snowfall to our friends in Ontario and New England. For Nova Scotia, the story will be a prolonged freezing rain threat on Tuesday.

This system will reach Nova Scotia overnight Monday starting with some light freezing drizzle across the southern part of the province. To the north, we will see mainly snow and ice pellets with freezing rain starting to mix in during the day on Tuesday. Precipitation will continue to build through the morning with a fairly heavy swath of freezing rain ongoing across much of the province during the afternoon. We will see this precipitation come to an end overnight into Wednesday morning as the system moves out over Newfoundland.

There is some uncertainty on the exact track of this system which would dictate where the freezing rain line would be located. Some areas along the shoreline particularly the Yarmouth region could switch over to regular rain as temperatures climb above the freezing mark.

Current indications suggest the worst conditions will be found further inland and to the north including Kentville, Truro, New Glasgow and Antigonish. They could see anywhere between 8-16 hours of icing with up to 10-15mm of ice accretion. Significant impact to travel along with power outages are expected in this area.

For Halifax, there is disagreement on how fast you'll switch over to regular rain. Some models show a fast switch over around the lunch hour on Tuesday while others have it lingering into the evening until the transition over to rain occurs. So the potential is there for this storm to be quite impactful, but it's not guaranteed.

We’ll continue to go over the latest data and post a more detailed forecast including timing sometime tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Impactful Snowstorm To Bring Up to 20-35cm of Snow to Southern Ontario Between Monday and Tuesday

What will likely be probably the biggest snowfall of the season for many regions across Southern Ontario is on the way between Monday and Tuesday. This same system is responsible for crippling snowfall and ice from Texas and all the way up into the Ohio Valley. The entire states of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas are under some form of winter advisory or warning! Here in Southern Ontario, For Southern Ontario, the snow will come in two separate waves starting with some light to moderate snow early Monday and throughout the day with the stronger second wave reaching our region late Monday evening. Very heavy snow and blowing snow is expected overnight into Tuesday morning. Travel should be avoided until later on Tuesday if possible. Widespread school bus cancellations across a wide swath of the region are almost certain which will further delay the return to in-person learning for some students.

We will actually see some lake effect snow around the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay overnight and early Monday morning in advance of this system. It doesn’t look particularly intense and is quite unorganized but locally 10-15cm can’t be ruled out around the Collingwood area even before we get started with the system. The first bands of system snow will spread across Southern Ontario by sunrise on Monday. The heaviest snow with the first round is expected to come down between 6-11 am on Monday with light snow continuing during the afternoon on Monday. Total accumulation by dinner time on Monday will range from 5-10cm just before the second round rolls into the region.

By Monday evening you might begin to think that this storm is amounting to nothing, but the worst is yet to come. Conditions will really begin the deteriorate late Monday evening and into the overnight hours as very heavy snow between 2-4cm per hour encompasses much of Southern Ontario. Strong wind gusts between 40-60km/h and stronger near the shorelines will likely result in blowing snow and localized blizzard-like conditions. Travel during this time will likely become almost impossible with near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation. If you do have to drive somewhere on Tuesday be sure to leave plenty of time to get to your destination and drive according to the conditions. The later in the day you can delay your trip the better as that will give time for the roads to be cleaned up. Snow will taper off around the noon hour although flurries and some drifting snow will continue to be an issue through the afternoon on Tuesday.

When we combine the accumulation from both rounds, we’re looking at widespread snowfall totals between 15-30cm across much of Southern Ontario by the end of Tuesday. A few localized pockets of between 30-40cm might be found south of Georgian Bay and through the Hamilton/Niagara region. Eastern Ontario will also see similar snow totals between 15-30cm with maybe near 35cm for the Kingston area. Areas to the north through Central Ontario and into Northeastern Ontario will see less snow from this system ranging from 10-20cm near Lake Simcoe and less than 10cm to the north of Parry Sound.

It’s important to note the factor of snow ratios that could affect the total accumulation we see from this system. In general, colder temperatures lead to more snow accumulation with the same amount of precipitation (we’re oversimplifying it here but it’s not important to get in the scientific details for this forecast). If temperatures were closer to the freezing mark with this system we’d be looking at accumulation closer to 10-20cm instead of the 20-35cm that we’re forecasting due to the colder temperatures. This is why some forecasts that use raw model data might be showing less snowfall accumulation than we’re forecasting. Regardless, we will see lots of snow - it looks like it will be closer to 25-30cm of light, fluffy snow instead of 10-15cm of heavy, wet snow.

Later in the week, we’re watching the potential for another system that could bring heavy snow to our region. It’s still several days in the future and lots could change. At this point, it appears to be following a similar track (maybe a little more to the west) with similar strength as the system on Monday/Tuesday. Slightly more moderate temperatures will result in lower snow ratios with this storm though so accumulation between 10-20cm is a fair bet at this point. We’ll continue to go over the latest data and keep you updated on that in the coming days. It’s certainly going to be a snowy week across Southern Ontario!

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, February 8, 2021

NOTE: We’ve only shown the regions that has 5% or higher chance of bus cancellations tomorrow. Other parts of Southern Ontario can be assumed to have a less than 5% chance of bus cancellations.

Snow squalls have developed off Georgian Bay this evening are expected to continue into Monday morning. With up to 50-75cm possible in the hardest-hit regions plus the near-zero visibility from the squalls should be more than enough to result in some bus cancellations. The highest chance is through the Muskoka region with the squalls focused particularly over Southwestern Muskoka (Port Carling, Bala etc.) so we’ve given all of Muskoka a strong chance (75%). The Bruce Peninsula into Parry Sound has an equal chance as there’s still some question on if the lake effect will be strong enough to require bus cancellations. Other areas around Georgian Bay and slightly inland have some chance of bus cancellations but they aren’t that high (5-25%). The rest of Southern Ontario has a near-zero chance of bus cancellations.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

We are aware that some schools are teaching virtually to some students. This isn’t factored into the forecast as busing is still provided to special needs students and could be cancelled. For this reason, our forecast might not be as accurate as school boards become less or more sensitive to weather conditions.

Intense Snow Squalls Return to Regions East of Georgian Bay Starting Sunday Afternoon; Up to 75cm Possible for Parts of Southern Muskoka by Monday

It has been quite an active weekend throughout parts of the traditional snowbelts in Southern Ontario. Snow squalls from Friday into Saturday brought significant snowfall accumulation to the Parry Sound and Northern Muskoka region with localized reports of over 50cm in some areas. After a short reprieve early Sunday, the lake effect activity will return to the Bruce Peninsula and regions east of Georgian Bay yet again later Sunday continuing into Monday.

This time we expect one main squall to develop stretching from Tobermory across Georgian Bay and coming inland somewhere between MacTier and Port Severn. The squall will likely be more intense and focused compared to the multi-squall setup we saw on Friday and Saturday so the significant accumulation won’t be as widespread. Current data suggest a pocket along the Hwy 400 corridor including Bala and Port Carling could see over 50cm and perhaps as much as 75cm by the time the squalls move northward on Monday morning.

As of Sunday afternoon, we’re already seeing some lake effect snow off Georgian Bay and that is expected to further intensify and organize into a squall by the dinner hour. A brisk westerly to NNW wind will push the squall off Georgian Bay and into Southern Muskoka. Exactly how far this squall gets inland is unclear as some models indicate it could stay quite close to the shoreline. It should however reach far enough to cross Hwy 11 somewhere between Port Sydney and Washago. Very heavy snow along with the strong wind gusts will produce near-zero visibility making driving near impossible throughout the Muskoka Lakes, Bracebridge and Gravenhurst region. Some lake effect activity may also affect regions as far south as Midland and Coldwater. We expect the worst conditions from Sunday evening and overnight into the predawn hours on Monday. Conditions will improve later on Monday morning as the squalls weaken and lift to the north towards Parry Sound. Areas north of Parry Sound will see some more snow during the afternoon on Monday including Britt, Burk’s Falls and Sundridge but the lake effect snow isn’t expected to be that strong.

The usual disclaimer exists with this lake effect event where the accumulation can vary significantly even within just a few kilometres due to how narrow and focused these squalls are expected to be. With that being said, confidence is fairly high on the location of the band so we should be able to accurately pinpoint the hardest hit regions with some accuracy. A zone that includes the Bala and Port Carling (Western Muskoka Lakes) appears to be in the most intense portion of the squall throughout the evening and overnight hours. As a result, accumulation between 50-75cm is possible right along the Georgian Bay shoreline including the Hwy 400 corridor roughly between Port Severn and just south of Parry Sound.

Further inland, the Bracebridge and Gravenhurst area will see between 20-40cm of accumulation with locally as much as 50cm (particularly for Gravenhurst). Northern Simcoe County along with Central Muskoka and Northern Kawartha Lakes have the potential for between 10-25cm of snowfall accumulation. For the Bruce Peninsula, we’re looking at around 10-20cm for Wiarton and up to 30cm for the Northern Bruce Peninsula. All other areas around Georgian Bay will see between 5-10cm and the rest of Southern Ontario should just see a few lake effect flurries if anything at all.

Significant Blizzard To Bring Up to 50cm of Snow and 90+km/h Wind Gusts to Nova Scotia Late Sunday Into Monday

A strengthening low-pressure system is set to track up the East Coast bringing widespread snowfall between 10-20cm on Sunday to the same areas that got pummeled by the powerful Nor’easter earlier in the week like New York and New England. This same system will also take aim at Nova Scotia with the system intensifying as it tracks just off the coast. As a result, we expect Nova Scotia to be on the cold side of this system and the predominant precipitation type will be snow. There might be some mixing along the coast with ice pellets and some freezing rain although that is very dependent on the system tracking closer to the coast and at the moment it looks unlikely.

Most of the precipitation will come down within a 12 hours timeframe across Nova Scotia mainly overnight into Monday morning. Rapid snowfall accumulation is expected during this time with hourly snowfall rates exceeding 5cm. Combined with strong wind gusts over 90km/h, this will likely create very hazardous conditions with near-zero visibility and drifting snow.

The first bands of precipitation will each the Yarmouth and Liverpool area starting around the dinner hour on Sunday and spreading northward throughout the evening. We expect the worst conditions will be found around midnight and into early Monday morning. The snow will begin to taper off from the south just after sunrise and continuing to move out throughout the day on Monday. Cape Breton will be the last to clear out with flurries lingering into the early evening on Monday. Everything should be done by the end of Monday as the system moves off into Newfoundland.

When it comes to total snowfall accumulation from this storm, we’re looking at widespread accumulation ranging from 20-40cm with locally up to 50cm. For those further inland, less precipitation is expected so generally, this would lead to lower snow totals, but colder temperatures (-1 to -2°C compared to -3 to -4°C inland) will also be found in these same areas. As a result, the slightly colder temperatures would mean a higher snow ratio (the amount of snow created from equivalent liquid precipitation; a higher ratio implies more snow for the same amount of precipitation) so further inland locations such as Kentville, Truro and New Glasgow could actually see between 30-50cm of accumulation. This may change should the system tracks further offshore than expected although it’s what the data currently shows.

The heavy snowfall will also be accompanied by very strong wind gusts, especially along the coast. Wind gusts in those areas including locations such as Liverpool, Halifax and Sydney could exceed 90km/h mainly during the early morning hours on Monday. Further inland, the wind will be weaker although gusts will still peak at over 70km/h (over 80km/h for Cape Breton). This will likely create blizzard conditions for several hours particularly closer to the coast although it may extend quite far inland with the potential for blowing snow for the rest of the province that doesn’t quite reach blizzard criteria. The strong wind gusts will end later in the morning on Monday around the noon hour, but gusts between 60-80km/h may continue across Cape Breton into Tuesday.

If you can, just stay home starting Sunday evening until midday Monday when conditions should begin to improve. Roads throughout the province will be snow-covered with strong wind gusts causing near-zero visibility so travel will become near impossible at the height of this storm. Stay safe!

Mother Nature Performing at the Superbowl Half Time Show

Valid Feb 7, 2021

It's looking unlikely that the after party for the Superbowl should be held in the same place as the Superbowl party itself because Mother Nature is planning her own event.

This system will begin to affect the Province shortly after supper on Sunday evening. Snow will start along the Fundy shoreline and move north. By morning on Monday the snow should be finished.

The snow could be heavy at times and mixed with the wind, there could be some blowing and drifting. This would reduce visibility and make driving more difficult. Snow amounts are likely to be a general 5-10cm throughout the province. Areas from Saint John to Moncton and Shediac will see 15-25, with 30cm or more possible in the area of Fundy National Park.

The fortunate part of this system is that winds will not be a large factor. The Province should see winds of 20-30 km/h throughout the duration of this system.

As always, be safe and let us know what you're experiencing in your area.

Storm chip probability: ??% - Let’s just say you shouldn’t eat all the chips during the Superbowl - save some for the storm.

~ IWNB team,

Mike & Harry

Another Blast of Winter

Valid Feb 7, 2021

It looks like Mother Nature has something planned for the Superbowl after party.

TIMING:

Snow will begin sometime after 8pm and will quickly make its way across the entire province. It will continue to snow throughout the night with it tapering to flurries on Monday near noon.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

Once again, the models do not totally agree on this system and any slight shift in the low could change the predicted snowfall accumulations below.

Prince County – 5-15 cm

Queens County – 10-20 cm

Kings County – 20-30 cm

WIND: Winds will be a factor with this system. Many areas of the Province will experience blowing and drifting snow.

Wind will start increasing near midnight Sunday night and continue until late Monday. Wind will be 30-40 km/h with gusts of 50-60 km/h early Monday into mid day with higher wind gusts in Kings County possible.

TEMPERATURE: Temperatures will drop throughout the day Monday. Starting the day around -2 to -4C and ending the day around -7 to -10C.

With the increasing winds and snow, visibility will be diminished, mostly in Kings and Queens counties. Please exercise caution on the roads throughout the evening hours of Tuesday.

Snowfall or Blizzard warnings may still be issued as the storm system moves closer to the Province.

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas.

Storm chip Probability: 100% (only because you should have them on hand for the Superbowl).

PEIBW Team (Mike S, Harry S)

First Round of Snow Squalls To Bring Hazardous Conditions This Weekend With Up to 30–50cm of Snow for Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound & Muskoka; 10–20cm of Snow Possible for Niagara and Kingston

After a short warm-up this morning which brought temperatures across Southern Ontario near or slightly above the freezing mark, the cold air has returned pushing temperatures back down to fell below the freezing mark. As a result, we’re already seeing some lake effect snow develop off the Great Lakes this afternoon and the lake effect activity is only expected to further intensify later this evening and lasting into Saturday. With a predominately westerly to southwesterly wind direction, we’ll see the squalls develop off Lake Huron, cutting across the Bruce Peninsula and come inland to affect regions northeast and east of Georgian Bay.

This would put locations including Tobermory, Wiarton, Parry Sound, Britt, Sundridge and Huntsville in the target zone for the most intense squalls. By the end of Saturday, those locations can expect snowfall accumulation between 30-50cm with locally higher amounts. The wind direction is expected to become more westerly throughout the day on Saturday which will likely push the squalls further south stretching from Owen Sound and into Southern Muskoka such as Bracebridge and Gravenhurst.

Strong wind gusts up to 70km/h will also present a challenge due to blowing snow and near-zero visibility so travel will be likely near impossible especially through the Hwy 400 corridor between Port Severn & Sudbury along with the Hwy 11 corridor between Gravenhurst and North Bay. Avoid travel in the affected regions if possible until at least late Saturday when the squalls are expected to weaken somewhat.

When it comes to the potential accumulation, a zone encompassing the Bruce Peninsula and regions along the northeastern Georgian Bay shoreline could see as much as 30-50cm. Although this is dependent on where the squalls set up and if they lock into a particular area for an extended period of time. Further inland and southward into Southern Muskoka, locations such as Saugeen Shores, Owen Sound, Meaford. Port Carling, Bracebridge, Gravenhurst can expected total snowfall accumulation between 20-30cm. Again, the potential is there for some locations to massively underperform or overperform the forecast given how narrow and focused the bands will be. Other regions east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron can expect between 5-15cm of fresh snowfall accumulation. These squalls may stretch quite far inland and perhaps reaching as far as Quebec so wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pembroke/Petawawa area pick up close to 10cm by the end of Saturday.

Strong snow squalls are also expected to develop off Lake Ontario and Erie starting Friday evening and mainly affecting locations south of the border. However, there are indications that the squalls could start out in Canada with a southwesterly wind direction and clip the southeastern tip of the Niagara region along with Prince Edward County and the Kingston area. Locations such as Port Colborne, Fort Erie, Prince Edward County and Kingston could see several hours of heavy snowfall overnight before the squalls shift south of the border early Saturday morning. The squalls may return periodically throughout Saturday depending on the wind direction. Total snowfall accumulation could range from 10-20cm in the most intense squalls but some locations could easily exceed that should the squalls be further north than expected.

We’ll see the lake effect activity come to an end late Saturday as an approaching system from Michigan temporarily shuts off the lake effect snow machine. This system isn’t expected to bring much in terms of snowfall with maybe at most 5cm during the day on Sunday. More snow squalls will be on the way for the next week starting with another round developing late Sunday and continuing into Monday. Similar snowfall totals are possible for the second round although the exact wind direction is still unclear and looks like it may be more of a westerly to northwesterly flow. This would target parts of Northern Simcoe County (Midland, Orillia etc.) and Southern Muskoka (Bracebridge, Gravenhurst etc.) with the heaviest snowfall. As we’ve mentioned, some parts of snowbelts are on track to see up to 100cm of snow by the end of the week with several waves of intense snow squalls over the next 7 days. Additional forecasts will be posted in the coming days so stay tuned!

Arctic Air Returns to Southern Ontario as a Potential Snow Squall Outbreak Looms for Parts of the Snowbelts; Up to 100cm Possible in Some Areas Starting Saturday Through Next Week

Disclaimer: This is a very preliminary forecast and should only serve as a rough idea of the potential impacts. The exact accumulation will depend on wind direction and the strength of the snow squalls. Check back for more detailed and precise forecasts in the coming days.

A significant cool down is on the way for much of Central and Eastern Canada over the next week and Southern Ontario will definitely not be spared from the colder temperatures. For our friends out in the Prairies, this cold spell could bring potentially near record-breaking temperatures with the air temperature near -40°C and wind chills making it feel like -50°C! While we won’t come anywhere near those temperatures, it will still be quite cold compared to what we’ve become accustomed to this winter - overnight lows will be regularly around -10°C to -20°C perhaps as low as -25°C in some of the more northern regions.

Unlike those out in the west, we also have to deal with the Great Lakes which are still mostly wide-open and prime for lake effect snow activity with the right ingredients. Those ingredients are expected to come together beginning Friday evening with temperatures plummeting to well below the freezing mark combined with strong southwesterly to westerly winds. Intense snow squalls should develop late Friday evening off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron curing across the Bruce Peninsula and over Georgian Bay before coming back inland east of Georgian Bay. The hardest-hit locations will include Tobermory, Wiarton, Owen Sound, Parry Sound and northern parts of Muskoka. Combined with the system on Friday, accumulation over the next 3 days could approach 50cm particularly around the Parry Sound area and the Bruce Peninsula.

The squalls will be quite strong at times especially during the day on Sunday bringing near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation with hourly snow rates reaching 5-10cm in the strongest part of the bands. We may also see some squalls off Lake Ontario and Erie drift far enough northward to affect locations like Port Colborne, Fort Erie, Prince Edward County and Kingston during the evening on Friday. The Lake Ontario and Erie squalls will shift back south of the border overnight into Saturday morning. Total accumulation in this area will range from 10-20cm with locally higher amounts depending on how quickly the squalls move back stateside. It appears that all of the squalls will weaken somewhat later Saturday into Sunday as a weak system approaches from the west. This system won’t bring much in terms of snowfall but will temporarily shut off the lake effect snow until Sunday evening.

Several more rounds of squalls are expected from Sunday evening through Monday evening and then again during the middle of next week continuing until next weekend. Current data suggests it will be a predominately westerly to southwesterly flow so regions east of Georgian Bay along with the Grey-Bruce region will continue to pile on at least 15-30cm of snow with each round and perhaps more in localized spots. With 3-4 rounds of squalls expected over the next week, some areas could easily come close or even exceed 100cm (or a meter) of snow by the end of the week.

As we’ve said, this won’t come all on one day and is spread over 7 days so impacts won’t be as significant compared to a shorter timeframe. Regardless, travel will be likely near impossible through the affected regions within the snowbelts at times over the next week so consider avoiding any travel if possible. Be prepared for sudden whiteouts and snow-covered roads with the intense snow rates that can be found in some of these squalls. Keep in mind this is still several days away and should the wind direction change then it will shift the heaviest snowfall accumulation into other areas. We’ll have more details as we get closer and issue a forecast for each lake effect event separately. This forecast is just a ‘preview’ of what could be coming over the next week.

Stay tuned for our detailed forecast on the first round of snow squalls beginning Friday evening and continuing through the weekend. It should be posted by Friday afternoon.