***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

After some severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings yesterday, we’re looking a similar setup as yesterday. A trough will continue moving through the province and it is expected to trigger more severe thunderstorms today.

Severe thunderstorms have already begun to move through the Interlake Region this morning, which are expected to continue to strengthen as they travel eastward. The greatest severe thunderstorm threat, however, looks to start in the early to mid afternoon and continue into tonight.

The afternoon storms could develop across a large swath of Central and Southern Manitoba. However, there has been disagreement between weather models regarding where exactly these storms could occur and how strong they might become.

Some models are showing that storms could begin developing in the early afternoon through the Parkland Region and southward, into parts of Westman and to the west of the Red River Valley. The timing of the storm initiation in the south is also a bit uncertain, with models suggesting it could occur sometime between 1pm and 5pm. There is also the likelihood of additional storms crossing into the Parkland area from Saskatchewan in the early evening.

***Simulated Radar from the NAM model showing the possible line of thunderstorms moving through the Red River Valley at 5PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

The storms that manage to form are expected to rapidly gain strength as they chart a course eastward across the province. They are likely to become supercells and could end up merging into a large line of severe thunderstorms through the afternoon.

These intense thunderstorms will have the potential to produce golf ball or larger hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and possibly a tornado. The risk of a tornado is less than yesterday, but the possibility can not be completely ruled out. These are expected to be moisture-laden and slow-moving thunderstorms, so localized flooding is definitely a concern as well.

Thunderstorm activity will gradually dissipate through the late evening hours as they approach and cross into Ontario. The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to conclude across Manitoba by midnight.