What's in a Name? Choosing the Right Tires to Drive you Through Canadian Winters

/

Tread patterns of summer, all season and winter tires. Image courtesy of discount tire.

Now that it’s the first week of November, many Canadians are starting to think about putting winter tires on their vehicles. There have been pockets of unseasonable warmth across the country in October and the start of November, the inevitable chill of winter is in the air, and many have already seen snow fall.

While winter tires are recommended throughout the country, they are mandatory in Quebec from December 1st to March 15th, and from October 1st to April 30th on certain British Columbia highways. Additionally, studded tires are allowed almost nationwide, with the exception of residents of Southern Ontario.

Insurance companies across the country offer discounts for installing winter tires as an incentive to encourage drivers to reduce the risk of accidents. So what makes winter tires that much better in the cold and snow than summer tires and where do all season and all weather tires fit into the mix?

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

With the right tools, it can be pretty easy to change your own tires!

Summer Tires

Summer tires are designed to handle both wet and dry road conditions with their wide tread and soft rubber. These tires also usually have deeper grooves that improve traction on wet roads and reduce hydroplaning, making them ideal for the wet spring and summer months.

Winter Tires

Like their name suggests, winter tires have been designed for winter roads. They are made with rubber that stays flexible at temperatures below 7°C (45°F), the magic number at which other tires become stiff and lose traction, greatly reducing their performance. Furthermore, winter tires have different tread patterns that are meant to divert water and slush to the sides, as well as little slits called sipes that increase the overall grip of the tires and helping them maintain contact with icy road surfaces. Over the past several years, tire manufacturers have started to include additional small particles, like crushed glass or walnut shells, that act as little studs on the surface of the tire for extra grip.

Performance of All Season Tires vs Winter Tires with decreasing temperatures. Image courtesy of Discount Tire.

All Season & All Weather Tires

Some people argue that winter tires aren’t necessary if they have all season tires on their vehicle. Unfortunately, this is a slight misnomer because while these tires can handle a bit of cold and snow, they fail to handle heavier snowfalls that are common in Canadian winters. All season tires, unfortunately, sacrifice traction in wet conditions that would be found in summer tires and some of the flexibility and grip seen with winter tires in order for the tread to last longer. Realistically, these should be called 3 season tires as opposed to all season. So while they’re not the best option for winter driving in Canada, all season tires are definitely a better choice than regular summer tires.

All weather tires, not to be confused with all season tires, are a true year-round tire designed to handle Canadian winters. Unlike all season tires, these tires remain soft and flexible well below 7°C. The tread pattern on all weather tires is a combination of all season and winter tires, making them better suited for driving through heavier snow than all season tires. While they still don’t match the performance of a true winter tire, all weather tires are the best option for those who don’t want the hassle of swapping out their tires twice per year or simply do not have the space to store an extra set. Their versatility truly makes all weather tires a middle of the road tire (pun intended) for Canadian drivers.

The three-peak mountain snowflake symbol found on winter and all weather tires. Image courtesy of Canadian tire.

When looking for tires to get you through the winter, it is recommended to chose either a proper winter tire or an all weather tire, so long as it has the three-peak mountain and snowflake symbol on the sidewall. This is an industry standard symbol which indicates that the tire meets strict regulations for winter performance; becoming mandatory on all winter tires beginning in 2018, transitioning away from just using the M+S (Mud and Snow) designation.

Further Reading

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/how-to/automotive/how-to-choose-winter-tires.html

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-laws-in-canada/

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-markings/

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/tires-below-45

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/winter-summer-allseason

Note: The author formerly received payments from “Big Tire” however, this article was not funded.

Trick-or-Treat: A Potential Spooky ‘Headless’ Comet Could Be Visible Across Canada Around Halloween

/

It's been a spectacular year for skywatchers across Canada, with events like solar eclipses, supermoons, and vibrant northern lights lighting up the night. Now, it looks like we might be in for another treat—a "headless" comet could make an appearance just in time for Halloween.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

October seems to be the month of comets, with Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS gracing the early evening skies recently. Many stargazers caught glimpses of the comet, which was visible in the western sky just after sunset. Although it has since faded from naked-eye visibility, you can still catch it with a telescope, and it will remain somewhat visible into early November.

But the cosmic show isn’t over yet. A second comet, called Comet ATLAS (C/2024 S1), may arrive just in time for Halloween, and it comes with a spooky twist—it could appear "headless." The comet’s name might sound familiar because it was discovered by the same ATLAS asteroid tracking system, known for spotting objects that could potentially impact Earth.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

The main difference between this upcoming comet and the earlier one lies in its path. While the first comet passed safely between Earth and the Sun, around 40 million miles from the Sun, this new comet will come much closer, potentially within 700,000 miles of the Sun's surface. Because of this close approach, scientists predict that the comet’s head—its bright core—might disintegrate due to the Sun's intense heat, leaving just a faint, trailing tail visible from Earth.

To understand what makes a comet appear "headless," it's important to know a bit about its structure. Comets are made up of a nucleus, or core, composed of rock, dust, and frozen gases. When they approach the Sun, the heat causes the frozen gases to vaporize, forming a glowing coma around the nucleus and a tail that extends away from the Sun. If the nucleus disintegrates, the glowing head might vanish, leaving behind only a ghostly tail, hence the term "headless comet."

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

ESTIMATED BRIGHTNESS OF COMET - SOURCE: sKYWALK.SPACE

The exact visibility of this comet remains uncertain. It will come closest to Earth on October 24th as it travels toward the Sun, reaching its closest point to the Sun, known as perihelion, on October 28th. There’s even a chance it could be bright enough to see during the day, potentially appearing as bright as Venus from 7:12 AM to 8:06 AM (ET) in the east-southeastern sky.

However, those in the Northern Hemisphere may struggle to spot it due to its position low in the sky near the Sun, making it difficult to see without obstruction from sunlight or clouds.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

NASA offers some tips for spotting the comet during this close approach. To view it safely, you should block the Sun with an object such as a building or tree, then scan the lower left of the Sun's position in the sky. Be cautious and never use binoculars or telescopes, as accidentally focusing on the Sun can cause serious eye damage.

If the comet survives its close encounter with the Sun, it could become visible in the night sky around Halloween. This would provide skywatchers with a unique opportunity to see a potentially "headless" comet, with a long, wispy tail but no visible nucleus. The darkness of the moonless night sky could offer ideal conditions for observing this unusual celestial visitor, making it a fitting cosmic event for the spooky season.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

There is always the possibility that the comet disintegrates completely, leaving nothing visible to the naked eye. But if it endures, it will gradually fade after November 1st, requiring binoculars or a telescope for further observation. Unlike earlier this month, when a supermoon washed out the sky, the absence of a full moon could make for an even more impressive show, assuming the comet survives.

Stay tuned for updates as we keep an eye on this intriguing comet.

Why the Northern Lights Are Appearing More Frequently: NASA and NOAA Confirm Solar Maximum

/

Visible light images from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory highlight the appearance of the Sun at solar minimum (left, Dec. 2019) versus solar maximum (right, August 2024). During solar minimum, the Sun is often spotless. Sunspots are associated with solar activity, and are used to track solar cycle progress. Credit: NASA/SDO

During a recent teleconference, experts from NASA, NOAA, and the International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel confirmed that the Sun has entered its solar maximum, a period of heightened solar activity expected to last through the next year.

The solar cycle reaches this peak roughly every 11 years, during which the Sun shifts from a relatively calm state to a much more active phase characterized by increased magnetic activity and a higher number of sunspots. These sunspots, which are cooler areas on the Sun’s surface caused by intense magnetic fields, can trigger powerful solar eruptions that significantly impact space weather.

This surge in solar activity doesn’t just make for an interesting spectacle; it can also have practical consequences on Earth. Solar flares and eruptions during this time can interfere with communications, disrupt GPS signals, and even affect power grids. They can also pose potential hazards to satellites and astronauts in orbit.

But for skywatchers, there is an upside: the solar maximum period also brings more frequent and spectacular aurora displays. The increased solar storms energize the Earth’s magnetosphere, producing stunning Northern Lights that light up the night sky.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

The Solar Cycle 25 forecast, produced by the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is co-chaired by NASA and NOAA. Sunspot number is an indicator of solar cycle strength - the higher the sunspot number, the stronger the cycle. Credit: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center

This past May, a powerful series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) resulted in one of the most intense geomagnetic storms seen in decades, setting the stage for breathtaking aurora displays visible across Canada. For many, it was a rare opportunity to experience the vivid greens, reds, and purples dancing across the sky.

If you didn’t catch those May displays or other recent aurora events, there’s no need to worry. With the Sun currently in its solar maximum, NASA and NOAA anticipate ongoing solar and geomagnetic storms in the coming months, which means there will be many more chances to witness the auroras.

Although the Sun is already in an active phase, pinpointing the exact peak of this cycle will take time as scientists closely monitor the number and intensity of sunspots and solar eruptions.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Exciting research efforts are also underway to better understand the Sun's behavior during this dynamic period. NASA is preparing for a major milestone in solar exploration, with the Parker Solar Probe set to make its closest approach to the Sun in December 2024. This mission, along with other initiatives, aims to deepen our knowledge of space weather and its effects on our planet.

Here at Instant Weather, we’re committed to keeping you informed about significant solar activity and providing timely alerts for aurora viewing opportunities across Canada. As the Sun continues to show off during this solar maximum, be sure to stay tuned for updates and get ready for more spectacular light shows in the sky.

Early October Windstorm Will Blow Across the Prairies This Weekend

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

The first weekend of October is shaping up to feel like true fall across the Prairies, with a strong low-pressure system bringing powerful wind gusts of 70-100 km/h. These winds are set to begin later this afternoon and continue throughout the day on Saturday. The prolonged high winds will likely strip many trees of their remaining leaves and could pose a serious hazard to traffic, especially for transport trucks and trailers

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

The windstorm will kick off in the Alberta Foothills this afternoon, quickly spreading across Southern Alberta as the evening progresses. Expect pockets of gusts exceeding 90 km/h along the QE2 corridor south of Calgary and near the American border. These intense gusts won’t last long in Alberta, though, as the winds are expected to ease overnight.

The storm will move eastward into Saskatchewan through the evening and overnight hours. By morning, the low-pressure centre will stall and the winds will intensify, leading to widespread gusts approaching, and in some areas surpassing, 100 km/h across much of Southern Saskatchewan. These fierce winds will persist into the late afternoon and early evening.

The system will push into Manitoba by late Saturday morning, with strong winds continuing throughout the day before gradually subsiding. The strongest gusts, reaching over 90 km/h, are expected in the southwest corner of the province, but many parts of Southern Manitoba will still experience significant gusts.

Temperatures will cool down a bit following this windstorm, serving as just a taste of the fall storms we can expect as the season progresses.

‘Strong’ Geomagnetic Storm Takes Aim at Earth; Northern Lights May Dazzle the Skies Across Canada on Thursday & Friday

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

One of the most powerful solar flares in recent years erupted from the sun on Tuesday evening, classified as an X7.1 flare. Initially, it was unclear whether this flare had produced a coronal mass ejection (CME), which is a large expulsion of plasma and magnetic field from the sun’s corona.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

However, data that came in later confirmed that a CME was indeed produced and, more importantly, appears to be Earth-directed. This means that the CME is expected to impact our planet, setting off the possibility of a ‘strong’ geomagnetic storm and potentially bringing the northern lights much farther south than usual across Canada to close out the week.

The exact timing of the CME's arrival, however, remains somewhat uncertain. Forecast models suggest it could arrive anywhere between late Thursday and early Saturday. The CME might even come in multiple waves, according to the latest data.

If this happens, we could be in for two consecutive nights of auroras lighting up the skies—if the conditions align perfectly! While the Northern Lights are never guaranteed, the next couple of nights offer a decent chance to catch a breathtaking display, depending on where you are located.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch, with the CME expected to reach Earth between Thursday and Saturday. Based on the latest observations, this CME could trigger G1 (minor) to G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm conditions.

The SWPC’s latest forecast predicts that a 'strong' (G3) geomagnetic storm may unfold late Thursday evening into the early overnight hours, followed by a potentially more prolonged geomagnetic storm ranging from ‘moderate’ (G2) to ‘strong’ (G3) on Friday night into Saturday morning.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

A G2 to G3 storm is strong enough to make the northern lights visible across much of Canada, especially if conditions are just right. In the past, storms of this magnitude have allowed the auroras to be seen as far south as Southern Ontario, and in some cases, even into the northern United States. In fact, the SWPC notes the possibility of the auroras being visible as far south as parts of the lower Midwest and Oregon in the U.S.

That said, space weather forecasting comes with some inherent uncertainty. The exact timing of a CME’s arrival can vary, and its intensity is often unknown until a few hours before it strikes Earth. There is usually a 12- to 24-hour window for the CME’s arrival, which means that although the current forecast favours North American viewing on Thursday and Friday nights, the event could just as easily occur during daylight hours, rendering it invisible to viewers in North America and giving those in Europe a better chance at catching the show instead.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Aside from timing, cloud cover will also be a crucial factor in determining whether you'll have a good view of the northern lights. As of now, fairly clear skies are expected across much of southern Canada on Thursday night. Specifically, areas of Atlantic Canada, Southern Quebec, and Southern Ontario are forecasted to have little to no cloud cover during the overnight hours, which is ideal for aurora viewing.

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Further north, however, there could be widespread cloud cover that might obstruct the view around James Bay in Northern Ontario and Quebec. Similarly, Northwestern Ontario could see some cloudiness, with the exception of a pocket near the International border around Thunder Bay.

In Southern Manitoba, skies look clear south of the Interlake region, though clouds will likely impact Northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

For Western Canada, Southern Saskatchewan and Southeastern Alberta are expected to have the clearest conditions. Meanwhile, much of British Columbia, along with central and northern Alberta, could see cloud cover that may limit visibility.

Check out our free app, Instant Weather for a more in-depth cloud coverage forecast specific to your exact location.

If you’re planning to watch for the auroras, another factor working in your favour this time around is the moon phase. Unlike last month’s aurora event, the moon is currently near 0% full, as we’ve just had a new moon on Tuesday night. This means that there won’t be any moonlight competing with the northern lights, making it easier to spot even faint auroras.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

When it comes to where the northern lights might be visible, it all depends on the strength of the geomagnetic storm and how it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Historically, during a 'strong' (G3) storm, auroras are most visible across northern Canada, including Northern Quebec, Far Northern Ontario, the Prairies, and parts of British Columbia. In these regions, the northern lights could be visible overhead and bright enough to see with the naked eye.

In southern regions, including Northeastern Ontario (Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and North Bay), as well as parts of Quebec, there’s a chance of seeing the auroras overhead or just above the horizon.

This could extend into northern parts of Southern Ontario, including Muskoka, Algonquin Park, and the Ottawa Valley. However, depending on the storm's strength, auroras may only be visible along the northern horizon, and you might need a camera to capture them, as they may not be strong enough for the naked eye.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

For the rest of Southern Ontario and into Atlantic Canada, if the auroras appear, they will likely be on the northern horizon. Here, too, you may need a camera or smartphone to capture the lights, as they may be too faint to see without assistance.

Remember, light pollution can greatly impact your ability to see the northern lights, especially in urban areas. For the best viewing experience, it’s essential to get away from city lights. A resource like DarkSiteFinder can help you locate areas with low light pollution for optimal aurora viewing.

Northern Lights Timing

Many are accustomed to the precise scheduling of weather events, from thunderstorms and winter weather to solar eclipses, where timing is crucial. It’s understandable, then, that there’s a desire for a similar pinpoint timing for the best viewing of the aurora. However, the reality of predicting the best time to view the northern lights is not so straightforward.

Here’s the deal: Unlike weather events driven by terrestrial conditions, the aurora is influenced by solar activity, which is far less predictable. We can estimate that the northern lights are best viewed from just after sunset to just before sunrise, provided the skies are dark and clear. Beyond that, precise timing for peak aurora activity is challenging to forecast with current technology.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Space weather forecasting doesn't yet allow us to predict exactly when solar energy will impact Earth. We know it's coming, but how and when it interacts with our planet's magnetic field can vary. Often, we only have a few hours' notice before the solar energy is detected by satellites.

Furthermore, the intensity of the northern lights can fluctuate significantly over short periods. You might have noticed this variance if you've observed the lights before—periods of dim activity suddenly bursting into vibrant colors. This is due to the variable concentration of solar particles interacting with our atmosphere.

While we can inform you a few hours ahead when conditions are likely to be good, predicting the exact peak of aurora activity is akin to forecasting the peak of a meteor shower; we know the best night but not the best hour.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba This Afternoon and Into Tuesday Morning

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Following some morning and early afternoon rain, Southern Manitoba can expect more active weather with severe thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday morning. The possibility of large hail and flooding caused by heavy downpours make this a Slight Risk in Southeast and South-Central Manitoba.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

The activity will begin this afternoon with a line of storms pushing northeastward into the region from North Dakota. Development of further storms will continue through the evening and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, resulting in some locations seeing multiple rounds of thunderstorms. The storms that develop later into the evening could be more organized and are expected to be stronger that the afternoon storms.

These storms may bring some large hail, up to the size of a timbit, as well heavy rains that could result in areas of localized flooding. There will be some strong wind gusts that are expected to top out in the 90-100 km/h range and the possibility of an isolated tornado can not be completely ruled out.

Eyes to the Sky! Northern Lights Could Make an Appearance Across Canada on Monday

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

A powerful solar flare, reaching an impressive X4.5 rating, erupted on Saturday, sending an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. This CME is expected to impact our planet, sparking geomagnetic storm conditions that could bring the northern lights much farther south than usual across Canada on Monday.

As with most space weather events, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the CME's arrival. According to the latest data, the strongest storm conditions are anticipated during the mid to late morning hours on Monday, gradually weakening throughout the day. This suggests the best viewing opportunity for the auroras may occur in the pre-dawn hours, particularly in Western Canada.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

However, this isn’t set in stone. Space weather forecasting can be tricky, and the CME might arrive later than expected, which would actually be the ideal outcome for North American skywatchers. A delayed arrival could mean a spectacular display of the northern lights over large portions of the country on Monday night.

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is forecasting a "strong" geomagnetic storm (G3 on a scale of 5) to develop sometime on Monday. A G3 storm is potent enough to make the northern lights visible across much of Canada, provided the conditions align just right.

Historically, storms of this strength have allowed auroras to be seen as far south as Southern Ontario, and sometimes even into northern parts of the United States. In fact, the SWPC mentions the possibility of auroras being visible as far south as Pennsylvania and Iowa.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Based on the SWPC’s latest forecast, the geomagnetic storm is expected to peak between 5 AM and 11 AM EDT (2 AM to 8 AM PDT). A moderate (G2) storm is projected to continue through the day, potentially lasting until 11 PM EDT (8 PM PDT).

If this timing holds, the best chances to witness the northern lights would be in Western Canada during the early morning hours on Monday, when the storm is at its peak. Unfortunately, for those in Ontario and Quebec, the storm may hit after sunrise, reducing the likelihood of a good aurora display.

That said, if the CME arrives later in the day, it could extend the storm into Monday night, offering a better chance for Eastern Canada to catch the auroras, assuming clear skies.

IMAGE FROM WeatherBell

Speaking of skies, Monday night’s cloud forecast looks promising for much of Canada. The latest model shows most areas should have a good view, with only Southeastern Manitoba, Northwestern Ontario, and Northern Quebec facing potential cloud cover that might obscure the show.

Southern Saskatchewan and Northern Alberta may see patchy clouds but could have breaks offering decent aurora visibility. For Southern Ontario, Quebec, and most of Western Canada, skies are expected to remain clear.

Check out our free app, Instant Weather for a more in-depth cloud coverage forecast specific to your exact location.

Another potential issue will be the full moon leading to the possibility of the northern lights appearing more dim and harder to spot. However, if the storm is as strong as forecasted, there still should be some chance to capture the show despite the bright moon.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Northern regions of Canada, especially Northern Quebec, the Prairies and British Columbia, are almost guaranteed to see the northern lights, except for areas in Southwestern BC near Vancouver where visibility is less certain.

Zooming into more southern regions, the likelihood of seeing auroras becomes more variable. Northeastern Ontario, including Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and North Bay, along with Western and Northern Quebec, have a strong chance of aurora sightings.

In Central Ontario, places like Muskoka, Algonquin Park, Bancroft, and the Ottawa Valley also have a moderate chance, as do areas around Montreal. However, the timing of the storm’s arrival remains a key factor—if it’s delayed and peaks closer to sunset, a G3 storm would likely provide an opportunity for these regions to witness the lights.

In Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and southern Quebec near the American border, the probability becomes more uncertain. There’s a low to slight chance of auroras being visible here, depending on whether the storm overperforms or peaks later in the night.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

It’s important to keep in mind that light pollution can drastically affect your ability to see the northern lights. Urban areas, in particular, can drown out the skies, so you’ll need to find a dark spot away from city lights for the best chance to see the show. A resource like DarkSiteFinder can help you locate areas with low light pollution for optimal aurora viewing.

Northern Lights Timing

Many are accustomed to the precise scheduling of weather events, from thunderstorms and winter weather to solar eclipses, where timing is crucial. It’s understandable, then, that there’s a desire for a similar pinpoint timing for the best viewing of the aurora. However, the reality of predicting the best time to view the northern lights is not so straightforward.

Here’s the deal: Unlike weather events driven by terrestrial conditions, the aurora is influenced by solar activity, which is far less predictable. We can estimate that the northern lights are best viewed from just after sunset to just before sunrise, provided the skies are dark and clear. Beyond that, precise timing for peak aurora activity is challenging to forecast with current technology.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Space weather forecasting doesn't yet allow us to predict exactly when solar energy will impact Earth. We know it's coming, but how and when it interacts with our planet's magnetic field can vary. Often, we only have a few hours' notice before the solar energy is detected by satellites.

Furthermore, the intensity of the northern lights can fluctuate significantly over short periods. You might have noticed this variance if you've observed the lights before—periods of dim activity suddenly bursting into vibrant colors. This is due to the variable concentration of solar particles interacting with our atmosphere.

While we can inform you a few hours ahead when conditions are likely to be good, predicting the exact peak of aurora activity is akin to forecasting the peak of a meteor shower; we know the best night but not the best hour.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Threat of Massive Hail is the Driving Force Behind a Widespread Strong Severe Risk in Southeast Manitoba Sunday Afternoon IF Storms Develop

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

It’s been a very active few days across the Prairies and this morning was no exception, with destructive wind gusts pummelling parts of East Central Saskatchewan and the Westman and Parkland Regions.

Unfortunately, this trend of dangerous severe weather will likely continue this afternoon, but this time the target will be Southeastern Manitoba. The possibility for massive hail across the region has resulted in this being a widespread Strong Risk for severe thunderstorms for this afternoon.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Once again, weather models are struggling with pinpointing these storms, but the ingredients for severe weather should all be in place and there is a potential for severe storm development, which warrants a forecast. Today will be an “IF day” in the sense that IF storms end up developing, they are expected to be very strong and widespread across the region. With the intense heat and temperatures feeling into the low 40s, along with ample moisture and instability, the environment will be primed for storms, but a strong enough trigger will be necessary for them to occur.

This storm development could begin early this afternoon, as the existing line of storms pushes northeastward through the Interlake Region. Behind this, additional storms could develop along a cold front and make their way eastward through the Red River Valley and Interlake Region during the afternoon and the Eastman and North Eastman Regions in the evening and overnight hours. Whether or not this development actually occurs is still uncertain.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

If the severe thunderstorms end up developing this afternoon, the major threat will be very large hail. Golf ball-sized hail appears to be likely with these potential storms, with even up to tennis ball-size possible. Widespread damaging wind gusts over 100km/h would also be associated with these storms, as well as up to 100mm of rain resulting in localized flooding and the possibility of a tornado.

This could very well end up being a bust, but the threats involved in the event that storms do develop are quite significant and it’s important to be prepared.

Greatest Severe Thunderstorm Threat for Saturday Afternoon Shifted West; Still Slight Risk for Southern Manitoba

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Following this morning’s thunderstorms, we are still expecting more severe weather for Southern Manitoba later today, however the anticipated strength of those storms has diminished and the area they’re expected to hit has also changed. The strongest storms of the day are now expected in Southern Saskatchewan, but the potential for damaging winds, large hail. and localized flooding still result in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms in the Westman, Parkland and Northern Interlake Regions.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

The exact timing of these storms is tricky to establish due to uncertainty between weather models, leaving three possible scenarios.

Scenario 1

Large storms could begin to develop in the mid-afternoon just east of the Saskatchewan border in the Parkland Region as isolated supercells which would travel northeastward across the province. Development of additional storms would continue through the evening and early overnight, following the same northeastward trajectory. These storms would then be followed by a more organized cluster of storms crossing through the region Sunday morning.

Scenario 2

Smaller storms could start to develop in the Parkland Region in the mid to late afternoon and quickly become more organized into a strong line that spreads into the Northern Interlake and travels southeastward through the evening before starting to fall apart approaching the Central Plains overnight. In this scenario, the storms Sunday morning would be weak, if they occur at all.

Scenario 3

A handful of small storms could pop-up starting in the later in the afternoon, once again in the Parkland Region, and continuing into the late evening, but not amount to anything too concerning. Then, in the early morning hours, a large cluster of storms could push northeastward into the region from Saskatchewan, followed by a second round of strong storms later in the morning.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Regardless of which of the three scenarios unfolds, it is likely that there will be strong storms in Manitoba over the next 24 hours. The threats from these storms will be the large hail, with up to toonie-size likely and damaging wind gusts that could exceed 100km/h, as well as one or two tornadoes . There is also the concern of localized flooding because these storms are expected to occur over the same area. It’s important to note that the level of uncertainty between weather models means that this could very well end up being a classic “bust” day, but we believe that it is better to be prepared in the event that any one of these scenarios materializes.

Slight and Strong Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Across Southern Manitoba Saturday, Hitting in Multiple Rounds

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

It will be a hot day across Southern Manitoba on Saturday, but there will be some active weather, in the form of a line of severe thunderstorms, to contend with before the temperatures start to climb. More storms will hit the region later in the day, but the timing remains a little unclear. Regardless, the risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts, along with the possibility of a tornado makes this a Strong Risk for severe thunderstorms in Southwestern Manitoba, including Brandon, and a Slight Risk across much of the rest of Southern Manitoba.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

The first line of storms will make their way into Southwestern Manitoba around sunrise Saturday morning, packing a punch with strong winds and large hail. These storms will lose steam as they travel eastward across the width of the province throughout the morning and into the early afternoon. Following this line of storms, it will be a hot day across the region, feeling closer to 40°C with the humidity, which should provide ample fuel for another wave of storms. The exact timing of this second line of storms is still uncertain. Some models are suggesting that the additional storms could start Saturday evening and make their way across Southern Manitoba overnight and into Sunday morning. On the other hand, there are other models that show the second line of storms developing in the early morning hours of Sunday and continuing into the early afternoon, followed by a third line of storms beginning Sunday evening. Due to this uncertainty, we will likely have a revised forecast for the secondary storm development posted Saturday afternoon.

The threats from these storms will be the large hail, with up to golf ball-size possible, as well as widespread damaging wind gusts that could exceed 100km/h and approach 120km/h, along with the possibility of a tornado or two touching down. There will also be a flooding risk, with these storms expected to bring up to 100mm, particularly to areas that will experience multiple rounds of storms.