June 25, 2026

Southern Ontario Faces Severe Storm and Tornado Risk Thursday Ahead of Possible Canada Day Heatwave

June 25, 2026/ Brennen Perry

THIS FORECAST IS SPONSORED BY:

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

While the latter half of June has been relatively quiet across Southern Ontario when it comes to severe weather, thanks to cooler temperatures dominating the region, that pattern is about to change in a big way. As we head into the final days of June, much warmer and increasingly humid air will begin pushing into the province, bringing with it a rapidly increasing risk for thunderstorms.

The first significant opportunity arrives on Thursday, when portions of Southwestern Ontario could see a widespread severe thunderstorm risk. An isolated severe threat may also extend farther east into parts of the Golden Horseshoe and Central Ontario.

If thunderstorms are able to develop during the afternoon and early evening, they will move into a very favourable environment capable of supporting supercell thunderstorms. These storms could produce all modes of severe weather, including toonie-sized hail or larger, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h, torrential rainfall and even a few isolated tornadoes.

The most favourable environment currently appears to be across areas including Sarnia, Chatham, Grand Bend, Goderich and London. However, isolated thunderstorms could also develop as far north as the Bruce Peninsula, east toward Lake Simcoe, and south into portions of the Greater Toronto Area. While the tornado threat decreases farther away from Lake Huron, it cannot be completely ruled out as far east as Kitchener, Hamilton and portions of the southern Georgian Bay shoreline.

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We'll be providing comprehensive live coverage of any storms that develop on Thursday afternoon on our YouTube channel. Our team will be tracking storms in real time with live radar analysis, warnings, storm reports and chaser coverage, so if severe weather threatens your area, be sure to join us live to help stay informed.

**SIMULATED RADAR** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Thursday's forecast does come with one important complication. Morning showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected to move through Southwestern Ontario before spreading into Central and Eastern Ontario during the day.

As we've seen many times before, morning convection can make or break an afternoon severe weather event. If clouds and showers linger too long, they can prevent the atmosphere from recovering enough to support stronger storms later in the day.

On the other hand, if skies clear by around the noon hour, as many of the latest models suggest, there should be several hours available for temperatures and instability to quickly rebound.

**Significant Tornado Parameter** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By the mid-afternoon, the atmosphere is expected to become increasingly supportive of severe thunderstorms, with the highest risk developing between roughly 2 PM and 6 PM. The strongest combination of instability and wind shear currently appears to be centred near the Lake Huron shoreline, extending into Sarnia and Chatham.

The latest Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) data also highlights an enhanced corridor stretching from the Michigan border across Lake Huron into Southwestern Ontario. Should storms form within this corridor, they could rapidly intensify into rotating supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

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There remains some disagreement among the forecast models regarding exactly where storms will first develop.

Some models initiates storms as early as 3 PM across Michigan before they quickly cross into Deep Southwestern Ontario. This scenario would place communities such as Sarnia, Grand Bend, Goderich and London at the greatest risk.

Other models delay development until later in the afternoon or early evening, with storms forming closer to the Hanover to Grand Bend corridor before tracking southeast toward London, Kitchener and possibly Hamilton. Regardless of which solution verifies, the greatest tornado potential continues to favour areas along and just inland from the southeastern Lake Huron shoreline.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may also develop around Lake Simcoe and into the Greater Toronto Area during the late afternoon and early evening. While the environment in these areas appears less favourable for widespread severe weather, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. The primary threats would be hail up to quarter size along with isolated damaging wind gusts.

As the sun sets Thursday evening, the severe weather threat should gradually diminish as daytime heating is lost. However, scattered non-severe showers and thunderstorms may continue well into the overnight hours, particularly across Central and Eastern Ontario.

Looking beyond Thursday, the severe weather threat briefly settles down. Friday may bring a very isolated thunderstorm risk across Eastern Ontario, particularly near the Ottawa Valley, while much of the weekend currently appears relatively quiet from a severe weather perspective.

The bigger story heading into next week will likely be the return of significant heat.

Temperatures are expected to steadily climb through the weekend, with many areas approaching or exceeding 30°C by Monday. Current medium-range guidance suggests the heat could continue to intensify into the middle of next week, potentially peaking around Canada Day.

Some forecast models are indicating temperatures running between 5 and 10°C above seasonal averages, with localized anomalies approaching 15°C in parts of Ontario on Canada Day. If those projections verify, daytime highs could reach the low to mid 30s across portions of both Southern and Northern Ontario.

When combined with increasing humidity, it may feel close to 40°C in many communities.

This surge of heat and humidity will also provide plenty of fuel for additional thunderstorm development. While it is still too early to determine exactly which days will carry the greatest severe weather risk, there are increasing signs that we could be entering a much more active pattern over the next one to two weeks. Exactly when storms develop will depend on the arrival of cold fronts and other triggering mechanisms, something that will become much clearer once higher resolution models come into range.

We'll continue monitoring both Thursday's severe weather potential and the possible prolonged heat event expected next week. Stay tuned for forecast updates throughout the coming days as confidence continues to increase.

June 20, 2026

Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan Today with Slight Risk of a Tornado

June 20, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Severe thunderstorms are going to be likely across Southern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan today. A cold front associated with the low pressure system that’s responsible for the heavy rainfall in Central Alberta will be the trigger for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid-20s, but dewpoints are expected to be fairly low, barely reaching mid-teens for most of Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan. This lack of moisture could hamper thunderstorm development, however some moisture from the north could make its way into the region later today, which would make up for the lower dewpoints.

***Simulated reflectivity at 3pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this afternoon in the Foothills as individual cells. These storms will likely be severe for most of the region, but there is a more isolated severe risk closer to the low pressure center, in the Edmonton area and westward.

As the storms progress eastward through the afternoon and evening, they are expected to eventually merge into a line. This transition to a linear storm mode will bring a more widespread severe risk across Southeastern Alberta and eventually into Southwestern Saskatchewan later in the evening (around 8-10pm).

The severe risk does not extend too far eastward into Saskatchewan because the storms will weaken later in the evening. This will lead to a more isolated threat into the Swift Current area by around midnight before it’s expected that the storms become non-severe for the rest of the overnight period.

***Simulated reflectivity at 9pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

Across most of Southern Alberta and stretching into parts of Central Alberta, including Red Deer, and Southwestern Saskatchewan is where there is the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms today. In this region, the main severe weather threats will be strong wind gusts above 100km/h and large hail that could be as big as ping pong balls. There is also a small risk of a tornado today, but that will be very conditional on there being enough moisture moving into this area from the north ahead of the thunderstorm development.

June 17, 2026

Powerful June Storm System Could Bring Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes to Southern Ontario Overnight

June 17, 2026/ Brennen Perry

An unusually strong and deepening low pressure system for mid-June is set to track through the Great Lakes region overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. This powerful system will bring the potential for severe weather to a large portion of Southern Ontario, with the greatest threat occurring late tonight and into Thursday morning.

The same system is expected to produce a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan this afternoon and evening. In those areas, forecasters are highlighting the risk of violent tornadoes, destructive wind gusts and large hail as a potent combination of instability and wind shear develops ahead of the approaching low pressure system.

As this line of storms pushes eastward into Michigan tonight, it is expected to gradually weaken before reaching Ontario. However, weakening does not necessarily mean the severe threat will disappear.

Even in a decaying state, this line of storms could still bring impactful weather to portions of Southwestern Ontario, especially areas closest to the international border and along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Based on the latest forecast data, the primary threat appears to be damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h. In localized areas, stronger wind gusts could occur if isolated downbursts develop within the line of storms. These stronger pockets of wind have the potential to cause tree damage, power outages and scattered property damage.

While the tornado threat will be considerably lower than what is expected across parts of the United States, it cannot be completely ruled out.

The atmosphere over Deep Southwestern Ontario will remain supportive of some rotation early in the night, particularly while the line of storms is still relatively organized. Any tornado risk would likely be brief and localized in nature, but the strong dynamics associated with this system mean it is something we will be watching closely.

Another factor adding complexity to this forecast is the strength of the low pressure system itself.

In addition to thunderstorm-related winds, very strong winds will be present just above the surface overnight. Normally, a temperature inversion would act as a lid and prevent those stronger winds from mixing down to ground level. Current indications suggest that inversion should remain in place for much of the night.

However, if portions of that stronger wind are able to reach the surface, isolated non-thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h would be possible. This risk appears highest near the shorelines of Lake Huron and Lake Erie where local effects can help enhance wind gusts.

We’ll be closely monitoring this severe weather threat throughout the evening and overnight hours.

If conditions warrant, we’ll be going live on our YouTube channel with real-time storm tracking, radar analysis, warning updates and coverage of any severe weather that develops across Southern Ontario.

Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE and turn on notifications so you don’t miss any live coverage. Whether it’s damaging winds, tornado warnings or rapidly changing conditions, we’ll be there to keep you informed every step of the way.

Heavy rainfall will also accompany this system. Many areas will receive beneficial rainfall, but localized torrential downpours could lead to rainfall amounts exceeding 50 mm in a relatively short period of time. If storms repeatedly move over the same area, flash flooding could develop, especially in urban locations and areas with poor drainage.

The highest severe weather risk tonight stretches across Deep Southwestern Ontario and portions of the Lake Huron shoreline. This includes Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, Sarnia, Grand Bend, Goderich and Kincardine.

In these areas, storms could begin arriving as early as 8 to 9 PM and continue through the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern, although heavy rain and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

As the line progresses eastward, it is expected to reach the London, Woodstock, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville and Hanover areas around or shortly after midnight. There remains some uncertainty regarding exactly how much strength the storms will retain by this point. However, the potential still exists for several pockets of damaging winds to survive farther inland.

The tornado threat should be lower compared to areas farther west, but strong winds and localized flooding will continue to be concerns as the line moves through.

By the time the storms reach Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe during the overnight hours, the severe threat should be decreasing further. That said, this remains a powerful weather system and some stronger portions of the line could still produce isolated wind gusts approaching 90 km/h.

As a result, we continue to highlight an isolated severe weather risk for Toronto, Hamilton, Niagara, Newmarket, Barrie, Orillia, Bracebridge, Peterborough and Bancroft.

Attention will then shift to Eastern Ontario during the early morning hours on Thursday. Unlike areas farther west, there are indications that the atmosphere may begin to recover somewhat as the main line approaches. There is also the potential for additional isolated thunderstorms to develop behind or ahead of the main line shortly after sunrise.

This could allow for a secondary severe weather threat across portions of Eastern Ontario, particularly near the international border and into the Ottawa Valley. This broader morning severe weather risk includes Kingston, Brockville, Smiths Falls, Cornwall, Ottawa and Picton.

Should additional storms develop within this environment, all severe weather hazards would be possible including damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, hail and even an isolated tornado.

Forecast confidence in the tornado threat remains lower due to the early morning timing and questions surrounding how much instability can develop. However, the environment bears watching closely given the strength of the overall weather system.

The severe weather threat is expected to gradually come to an end from west to east through Thursday morning, with most areas seeing the risk diminish by early afternoon.

Even after thunderstorms exit the region, conditions will remain quite blustery throughout the day. Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts may continue across much of Southern Ontario as the powerful low pressure system pulls away from the Great Lakes.

June 16, 2026

Strong Winds and Timbit Sized Hail Possible with Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms in Southern Alberta & Saskatchewan Tuesday

June 16, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

It’s looking like it’ll be an active day for some parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan today. A low pressure system from Southern British Columbia will track southeastward through Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today, which will trigger the development of thunderstorms across the region.

Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid-20s, with dewpoints possibly into the mid-teens, across Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, which should help fuel thunderstorm development. There will be a modest amount of CAPE in the region, with weather models showing upwards of 1000J/kg for some areas. While this is not a great deal of instability, the combination of shear and a mechanism for lift will be enough for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the region.

***Simulated reflectivity at 2pm, courtesy of weatherbell.***

Non-severe thunderstorms have already developed this morning in Central Alberta. As the low continues tracking southeast into Southern Alberta, so too will the thunderstorms and starting in the early afternoon, it’s likely that the storms that develop will become severe.

The bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected to make its way into Southern Saskatchewan later in the afternoon, around 3-5pm. Behind the initial cluster of storms in this area, additional storms are expected to develop to the west, in Southern Alberta. Most of these storms will likely be severe, but there is a more isolated severe risk that will extend eastward across much of the rest of Southern Saskatchewan.

The thunderstorms will gradually weaken through the evening as they continue tracking into Montana and most of the storms should cross the international border by midnight. However, there is a chance that some storms could linger in Southern Saskatchewan into the early morning hours.

***Simulated reflectivity at 6pm, courtesy of weatherbell.***

An area that stretches from northwest of Calgary southeastward into Southwestern Saskatchewan, shown in yellow on our forecast map, is where there is the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms today. Across this region, the main threat from thunderstorms today will be strong wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, however there is also the threat that these storms could produce large hail that could be as large as Timbits and maybe even as large as golf balls. Given that at least one tornado is confirmed to have touched down in Northern Alberta from this system last night, the possibility of additional tornadoes today can not be ruled out.

June 09, 2026

Potential Derecho Combined with Threat of Baseball Hail and Tornadoes Marks the Return of Extreme Risk in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Tuesday

June 09, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

It was a very busy weekend for severe weather in Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. From the two day span, there have been countless reports of massive hail, wind damage, flooding from across the region, as well as a few tornado reports that are awaiting confirmation. Unfortunately, the calmer conditions we saw on Monday will come to an end when strong severe thunderstorms once again impact Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba today.

Through the day, a low pressure system will strengthen as it moves from Southeastern Montana into Western North Dakota and then into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba by later this afternoon. A warm front will extend eastward from the low pressure center, which will help draw lots of heat and moisture northward into Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

***Future Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed for 12pm cst/1pm CDT on Tuesday, courtesy of*** ***the national weather service***.

Temperatures are slated to climb into upper 20s and low 30s across the region this afternoon and with dewpoints expected to be in the upper teens, there will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorm development. Weather models are showing upwards of 4000J/kg of CAPE in some areas, which will support the development of supercell thunderstorms. Veering winds will also create a significant amount of shear to maintain large supercell thunderstorms and support tornado potential.

Through the morning, there is a chance that some thunderstorms could develop in Southeastern Saskatchewan which would track northeastward into Southwestern Manitoba during the early afternoon. These storms could possibly become severe and produce some small hail and strong winds, but they won’t be as strong as the storms expected later in the day.

***Simulated reflectivity at 3pm CST/4pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

Severe thunderstorms could start to fire up in the early afternoon, particularly in Southwestern and West Central Saskatchewan. However, we will gradually see more organized development of stronger thunderstorms occur across Southern Saskatchewan and into Southwestern Manitoba as we get later in the afternoon, around 3-6pm, depending on the time zone.

Similar to what we saw on the weekend, the thunderstorms are expected to grow exponentially into large supercells which will track mostly northeastward through the evening and overnight.

***Simulated reflectivity at 7pm CST/8pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

Even more thunderstorms are expected develop during the evening and storms will also move into the region from south of the border. As with the situation on both Saturday and Sunday, there is the likelihood that these additional storms will end up merging into a large line of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will continue to be quite strong for a few hours after they transition into a linear storm mode.

As the hours tick on and it gets closer to midnight, it’s likely that the storms will begin to gradually weaken. This is also around the time that the severe line will make its way into the Winnipeg area so it’s possible that the city could avoid the greatest severe hazards of the day.

***Simulated reflectivity at 11pm CST/12am CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

The risk of strong severe thunderstorms extends across much of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba today. Across much of the region, there will be the possibility for storms to produce ping pong ball hail, damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h, and heavy rains that will likely result in localized flooding.

However, the greatest threat of severe weather will once again be in Southeastern Saskatchewan, into Southwestern Manitoba and extending eastward into the Interlake Region and approaching the Red River Valley. This region, highlighted in red and purple on our forecast map, could see some exceptionally strong thunderstorms this evening that will originate from Montana.

The main threat from the thunderstorms that move through this region is expected be widespread destructive wind gusts upwards of 130km/h and this could very likely end up being considered a derecho. On top of this, the storms will also have torrential downpours that could further exacerbate the flooding issues being faced by some communities and they may produce hail that could be as large as baseballs, which could be extremely dangerous if it’s being driven by winds up to 130km/h. As if this wasn’t enough, there is also a tornado risk across this region.

The major hindrance to tornado development over the weekend was that a lack of moisture ended up keeping the cloud bases high, until they were able to lower later in the evening on Sunday. This could end up being the case today, but this still has the potential to be a life-threatening situation.

Even without the tornado risk, today’s severe weather threat is very serious. If you live in the area that we’ve highlighted in either red or purple on our map, PLEASE be prepared for the likelihood that threatening weather could impact your area today. Make sure you have your phones charged and you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. It’s also a good idea to have a plan in place in the event that you need to take shelter.

June 08, 2026

Threat of Large Hail, Damaging Winds and Tornadoes Returns to Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Tuesday

June 08, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

It was a very busy weekend for severe weather in Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. From the two day span, there have been countless reports of massive hail, wind damage, flooding from across the region, as well as a few tornado reports that are awaiting confirmation. Unfortunately, Monday’s calmer conditions won’t last because strong severe thunderstorms are once again expected to impact Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Tuesday.

Early Tuesday, a low pressure system will move into Southeastern Montana and from there, it will strengthen as it tracks into Western North Dakota through the morning hours and into the afternoon. A warm front will extend eastward from the low pressure center, which will help draw lots of heat and moisture northward into Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Temperatures are slated to climb into upper 20s and low 30s across the region in the afternoon and with dewpoints expected to be in the upper teens, there will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorm development. Some models are showing upwards of 4000J/kg of CAPE in some areas, which will support the development of supercell thunderstorms.

Veering winds will also create a significant amount of shear to maintain large supercell thunderstorms and support tornado potential. Overall, this is looking like a fairly similar environmental setup to Sunday.

During the late morning, there is a chance that some thunderstorms could develop in Southeastern Saskatchewan which would track northeastward into Southwestern Manitoba into the early afternoon hours. These storms will likely become severe and produce some small hail and strong winds, but they won’t be as strong as the storms expected later in the day. However, if these storms manage to persist across the Interlake Region, they could end up re-intensifying through the late afternoon and evening.

***Simulated reflectivity at 4pm CST/5pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

The strong severe thunderstorms could start to fire up in the early afternoon, particularly in Southwestern and West Central Saskatchewan. However, we will gradually see more organized development occur across Southern Saskatchewan and into Southwestern Manitoba as we get later in the afternoon, around 3-6pm, depending on the time zone.

Similar to what we saw on the weekend, the thunderstorms are expected to grow exponentially into large supercells which will track mostly northeastward through the evening and overnight.

***Simulated reflectivity at 8pm CST/9pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

More thunderstorms are expected develop during the evening and storms will also move into the region from south of the border. As with the situation on both Saturday and Sunday, there is the likelihood that these additional storms will end up merging into a large line of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will continue to be quite strong for a few hours after they transition into a linear storm mode.

The risk of strong severe thunderstorms on Tuesday extends across much of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Throughout this region, the severe thunderstorms could end up producing hail that’s larger than golf balls, widespread damaging wind gusts up to 130km/h, and torrential downpours that could exacerbate the flooding issues some communities are already dealing with.

There is also the potential for tornadoes to form from these thunderstorms. The major hindrance to tornado development over the weekend was that a lack of moisture ended up keeping the cloud bases high until they were able to lower later in the evening on Sunday. This could end up being the case on Tuesday, given the similar environmental setup, but the risk is certainly still in place.

Please keep in mind that this is a preliminary forecast and could differ from our final forecast as more data comes in overnight and tomorrow morning.

June 07, 2026

Widespread Tornado Threat and Softball-Sized Hail Possible with Extreme Thunderstorm Risk on Sunday as Severe Weather Outbreak Enters its Second Day

June 07, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

After a busy day yesterday, that saw severe thunderstorms dropping massive baseball-sized hail over parts of Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba, we have the chance to do it all again today. It’s likely that today could be an even greater severe risk day than yesterday, with an extreme risk posed by the possibility of gigantic hail and multiple tornadoes. However, there has been a little bit of uncertainty surrounding how thunderstorms may end up developing this afternoon and evening.

Like yesterday, today’s severe thunderstorm threat will be triggered by a cold front that is currently oriented on a north-south axis and it located just west of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. This is a bit further west than originally anticipated when we issued our preliminary forecast on Friday, due in part to the front becoming stationary for a period of time yesterday. As a result, the severe risk today will cover more of Southeastern Saskatchewan and won’t extend as far east across Southern Manitoba.

To the east of the cold front, temperatures will once again climb into the low 30s this afternoon and it’s expected to be much more humid today, with dew points approaching the 20°C mark. The lack of moisture yesterday kept the cloud bases high, which greatly reduced the tornado risk, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case today.

The heat and humidity will lead to high levels of instability and upwards of 3000J/kg of CAPE to fuel thunderstorm development again today. Veering winds will also create a significant amount of shear to maintain large supercell thunderstorms.

***Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed as of 6am cst this morning, courtesy of*** ***the national weather service***.

As we’ve mentioned in this forecast already, and in our forecast from yesterday, there was uncertainty with today’s severe thunderstorm risk. There have been some mostly non-severe thunderstorms that have tracked through Southern Manitoba already this morning and it is possible these could hinder additional development later today.

The storms have weakened over the past couple of hours and the thought was that if they manage to clear early enough, that will allow for there to be ample surface heating needed for the additional explosive development later. However, if the storms stuck around into the afternoon, the severe thunderstorm risk would be greatly reduced. With the clearing of these morning storms already occurring, it seems likely the severe threat will not be diminished.

The significant severe thunderstorms could develop in the late afternoon and into the early evening, around 4-6pm in Southeastern Saskatchewan and extending northeastward into Southern and Central Manitoba. These storms could once again explode into massive and dangerous supercell thunderstorms that would track roughly northeastward through the evening.

The area highlighted on our map in red, that covers a large portion of Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, will be at a very high risk for dangerous severe thunderstorms. The area highlighted in purple, however, is where the strongest environment is expected to be and where there is an extreme risk for incredibly dangerous and life-threatening thunderstorms.

Throughout this region, the severe thunderstorms could end up producing absolutely massive, and maybe record-breaking, softball-sized hail, damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h, and very heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. If we end up seeing the moisture that we were lacking yesterday, and the storm bases are lower, it is entirely possible that we could be looking at a tornado outbreak.

As we progress through the evening, more thunderstorms are expected develop and storms will also move into the region from south of the border. Once again, there is the likelihood that these additional storms will end up merging into a large line of storms which could impact a wide area into the overnight hours.

By the time we see a more linear storm mode, it’s likely that the storms will have weakened from their greatest strength, but they are still expected to be very strong and capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rain.

The tornado threat should also decrease as we get later in the evening and into the overnight hours, but with how strong these thunderstorms could be today, there will still be a slight risk until the storms move into Northern Manitoba during the early morning.

Today’s severe weather threat is very serious. If you live in the area that we’ve highlighted in either red or purple on our map, PLEASE be prepared for the possibility of threatening weather to impact your area today. Make sure you have your phones charged and you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. It’s also a good idea to have a plan in place in the event that you need to take shelter.

Once again, we will absolutely be live-streaming later so please join us while we monitor and track today’s severe weather. We hope everyone is able to stay safe today!

June 06, 2026

Tennis Ball-Sized Hail and Multiple Tornadoes Possible as Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak Targets Southeastern Saskatchewan on Saturday

June 06, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Over the last several days, we’ve been closely watching the possibility of an intense multi-day setup for this weekend that would impact Southeastern Saskatchewan today and shift into Southwestern Manitoba tomorrow. There has been a lot of chatter online about this severe weather risk and combined with several high-profile storm chasers in the area from the US, it’s easy to say that we’re not looking at your average thunderstorm activity.

Today’s severe thunderstorm threat will be courtesy of a warm and cold front that is poised over Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. The warm sector between the two fronts will see temperatures climb into the upper 20s and low 30s this afternoon, with high humidity.

This will lead to high levels of instability and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) for thunderstorm development. Add in veering winds, changing direction with height, which will create a great amount of shear, and you have the recipe for an outbreak of significantly strong severe thunderstorms.

There have already been some scattered thunderstorms this morning which will continue through the afternoon across much of Southern Saskatchewan. These storms are expected to stay non-severe for the most part, but there is an isolated severe risk.

The thunderstorms that will be the focus for today aren’t expected to develop until this evening, starting around 5-6pm, to the east of Regina. Weather models are showing that these storms will likely quickly explode into large and dangerous supercell thunderstorms as they track roughly east-northeastward.

***Simulated reflectivity at 6pm CST, courtesy of weatherbell.***

The area highlighted on our map in red that covers a large portion of Southwestern Saskatchewan and into parts of the Parkland Region in Manitoba will be at the greatest risk for the strongest of these severe thunderstorms.

In this region, it’s likely that the storms could produce massive hail as large as tennis balls and possibly even larger, damaging wind gusts up to or exceeding 100km/h, and heavy downpours that could result in localized flooding. There is also a considerable threat that multiple tornadoes could touch down in this region; with the stretch from Weyburn to Yorkton appearing to be of particular concern.

As we progress through the evening, we will see additional thunderstorm development occur, which are expected to merge into a line of storms. This will bring a more widespread threat of the significant and strong storms across the rest of Southeastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba.

***Simulated reflectivity at 8pm CST, courtesy of weatherbell.***

The severe weather threat will diminish gradually as the hours tick on in the evening and overnight. The tornado risk is also expected to decrease from its highest point by the mid-evening, but the storms could still be strong enough for the risk to remain through the evening. By midnight, there could still be a widespread risk of some severe storms, but this will quickly turn into a more isolated risk and scattered non-severe thunderstorms through the morning.

Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon, we’re looking at another day of possibly strong severe thunderstorms, with the risk pushing further east across Southern Manitoba. What ends up happening tomorrow will really depend on how things unfold today. There’s the possibility that tomorrow could have even stronger storms than what is expected this afternoon, but this will be heavily contingent on how long any overnight storms manage to persist into tomorrow.

If the storms clear during the morning, that will allow for there to be ample surface heating for the development of another significant severe thunderstorm outbreak. However, if the storms continue into the afternoon, the severe thunderstorm risk will be greatly reduced.

We will have more details later today about how tomorrow could shape up. In the meantime, we will be watching today’s development very closely and we will be streaming later to track the severe thunderstorms live. Be sure to tune in!

June 02, 2026

June Starts With a Bang as Strong Severe Thunderstorms Threaten Southern Manitoba

June 02, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

The summer-like heat that has taken hold of the southern half of Manitoba over the last few days is finally going to give way to more seasonal temperatures. A cold front will move through the province today, which will be responsible for the drop in temperatures, however, it will also be the trigger for severe thunderstorms across Southern and Central Manitoba.

Thunderstorms have already developed this morning in Western North Dakota and they have been tracking north-northeastward across Westman. So far, these storms have stayed non-severe, but there is an isolate severe risk associated with them as they will continue making their way into the Parkland Region through the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon. There is a more widespread severe risk associated with the storms just on the other side of the Saskatchewan border.

While this first wave of storms aren’t too strong, the thunderstorms that will follow this afternoon, on the other hand, could be a different story.

***Simulated reflectivity at 3pm CT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

The second round of thunderstorms will arrive in the early afternoon in Westman, around 12-1pm, as a combination of discrete cells and small multicellular storms. However, they will gradually organize into an intense line of thunderstorms, that will stretch across Southwestern Manitoba and Western North Dakota by the mid-afternoon.

This line is expected to comprised of strong severe thunderstorms, which could possibly be rotating supercells, that will track northeastward across Southern and Central Manitoba.

The mid-afternoon and into the early evening, from about 3-6pm, will be the time frame when there is the greatest risk for severe weather hazards. Large hail, up to the size of ping pong balls or golf balls, is one of the major threats during this time, along with heavy downpours and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and possibly as high as 130km/h. There is also the threat of an isolated tornado forming from these supercell storms.

***Simulated reflectivity at 7pm CT, courtesy of weatherbell.***

By the time the storms reach the Winnipeg area, at around 7-8pm, it’s expected that they will weaken slightly as they shift away from being supercellular and into a more linear storm mode. There will still be a widespread severe risk, with intense winds being of particular concern. Heavy downpours and slightly smaller hail will remain a risk as the bowing line continues towards the Ontario border, however the tornado threat all but disappears.

As we get later in the evening and into the overnight hours, the storms will lose energy and the severe risk will become more isolated. Weak thunderstorms will persist through the early morning hours throughout Eastman and into the Red River Valley, but they will dissipate to light showers by sunrise.

This is the kind of setup that will have a lot of eyes on it. We will definitely be streaming later so make sure to join us for our live coverage of these storms.

May 26, 2026

Real Taste of Summer for Alberta & Saskatchewan as Temperatures Soar into the 30s with Severe Thunderstorm Risk

May 26, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

It was only a little over a week ago that we had snow falling across parts of the Prairies. Now, Mother Nature is treating us to some weather whiplash and a true taste of summer, with temperatures climbing into the 30s in a heat wave that begins today and continues through the week.

This extended period heat is courtesy of a strong upper level ridge in the jet stream which will allow much warmer air from the States to surge northward. This ridge is expected to gradually extend eastward over the course of the week, which will then bring the heat into Manitoba and possibly deliver some relief in Eastern Alberta.

Along with the heat today, there will be the risk for severe thunderstorms to develop in Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible for Southern Alberta throughout the afternoon, but the greatest risk of severe weather begins with storms that develop later in the afternoon and early evening in both provinces, as well as in Montana. Storms that form during this time will likely be severe as they track northwestward, but as we get later into the evening and overnight hours, they should weaken and become non-severe.

Strong wind gusts in excess of 100km/h are the main threat from today’s severe thunderstorms, but there will also be a possibility of up to nickel-sized hail. There is a chance that there might be enough capping in the atmosphere today that storms could struggle to develop so we will certainly be keeping a close watch on how things shape up over the coming hours.

May 19, 2026

Tornado Tuesday Could Bring Damaging Storms to Southern Ontario With Strong Severe Threat

May 19, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After an active, severe weather day on Monday that left widespread damage across parts of Central Ontario, especially throughout cottage country, another volatile day is shaping up across Southern Ontario.

In fact, Tuesday’s severe weather risk could end up being even stronger than Monday’s in some areas, particularly across Southwestern Ontario extending northeast toward Lake Simcoe and portions of the Golden Horseshoe.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours, bringing the potential for all modes of severe weather. This includes damaging wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, hail up to ping pong ball size and the risk for a few tornadoes.

The primary area of concern stretches from Midland southwest toward Sarnia. Conditions in this corridor may support the development of supercells during the early stages of storm development. Supercells are rotating thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, very large hail and destructive wind gusts.

This early stage of the event is when the tornado and hail threat is expected to be at its highest, as storms remain isolated and are able to fully tap into the warm, unstable and highly sheared environment in place across the region.

As these storms track north and east through the evening hours, they are expected to gradually transition into a more linear storm mode. In other words, the isolated storms may begin to merge together into a squall line or broken line of embedded thunderstorms as they approach the Golden Horseshoe during the early evening.

At that point, the primary threat would shift away from tornadoes and large hail and toward widespread damaging wind gusts. However, isolated tornadoes can still occur within these types of storm lines through quick spin-ups along the leading edge, even if that is no longer the dominant concern.

The severe weather threat is expected to diminish fairly quickly after sunset, likely between 9 and 10 PM, as the loss of daytime heating weakens the atmosphere’s ability to sustain intense thunderstorms.

Behind the storms, a cold front is expected to sweep through the province overnight, bringing a sharp end to Southern Ontario’s first heat event of the year. By Wednesday morning, some areas could be waking up to temperatures back down in the single digits.

Based on the latest simulated radar data, isolated thunderstorms are expected to begin developing along a line extending from Midland southward toward Sarnia around 6 PM. However, that timing could still shift, especially since these setups can sometimes initiate earlier than forecast.

If storms are able to develop earlier in the afternoon, they would have access to an even more favourable environment, potentially increasing the severe weather risk.

Regardless of exactly when storms first form, the expectation is that they will remain fairly isolated for the first few hours of their lifespan as they track east of Lake Huron and northeast toward regions surrounding Lake Simcoe.

There is particular concern for the Midland to Kawartha Lakes corridor, where several model runs continue to indicate the potential for a dominant supercell to develop and track through the region.

Given that the strongest atmospheric conditions are expected to overlap in this area, any storm that develops there could become quite intense quickly, with the potential for tornadoes and very large hail.

Additional severe thunderstorms may also develop farther southwest and track through areas including London, Kitchener, Orangeville and Barrie during the dinner hour.

Farther east, a few isolated storms may also develop near Bancroft and the Ottawa Valley. However, the environment in those areas does not currently appear to be quite as favourable for widespread severe weather, so confidence in storm intensity there remains lower.

As the evening progresses and daylight fades, the isolated cells are expected to begin merging together into a more organized line of storms while gradually weakening as they approach the Greater Toronto Area.

These storms could certainly remain severe into the evening hours, but the primary threat would likely transition toward damaging wind gusts, which is common with linear storm events.

That does not mean the tornado threat disappears entirely though. An isolated QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out within the line as it tracks eastward through the evening.

QLCS stands for “quasi-linear convective system,” which is essentially a line of thunderstorms capable of producing brief, fast-forming tornadoes embedded within the line itself. These tornadoes are often difficult to detect and can develop with little warning.

The hail threat, however, is expected to decrease significantly by this stage of the event as storms lose their isolated structure and strong updrafts.

Overall, the severe weather risk should come to a fairly quick end shortly after sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes. While a few overnight thunderstorms may linger behind the main line, they are expected to remain below severe limits.

**ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE (°C)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, Southern Ontario’s brief taste of summer-like weather is set to come to an abrupt end behind Tuesday night’s cold front.

Temperatures are expected to tumble overnight, with some parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario potentially waking up to single-digit temperatures by Wednesday morning. In fact, there may even be some frost risk later this week across portions of Central Ontario as cooler air settles back into the province.

May 18, 2026

Multi-Day Severe Storm and Tornado Risk Targets Southern Ontario Alongside Summer-Like Heat

May 18, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Southern Ontario is about to get its first real taste of summer weather in 2026, and it’s arriving with a potentially stormy side effect.

Temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 20s and even near 30°C in some areas on both Monday and Tuesday as a surge of warm and humid air spreads across the province. While this early-season heatwave will be relatively brief, it’s expected to create a volatile atmosphere capable of producing two consecutive days of severe thunderstorms across parts of Southern Ontario.

From large hail and damaging wind gusts to the possibility of isolated tornadoes, there’s a lot to track over the next 48 hours. Our team will be providing extensive live coverage throughout both severe weather risks on our YouTube channel, with real-time storm tracking, warning updates, radar analysis and live storm chasing coverage as storms develop. If you’re looking for in-depth storm coverage in Ontario, Instant Weather will be the place to be over the next two days.

The first round of potentially severe weather is expected to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours on Monday as strong storms over Michigan begin to track into the Lake Huron and Manitoulin Island area around 3-6 PM. These storms are likely to merge into a single line with embedded cells as they cross the Bruce Peninsula and into regions around the northern and eastern shoreline of Georgian Bay. Early in their lifespan, they could present all storm hazards, including damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of toonies.

As these storms move into Central Ontario, including much of Ontario’s cottage country such as Muskoka, North Bay and Algonquin Park, the environment could become capable of supporting a brief spin-up tornado. There is still some uncertainty regarding the tornado risk as some models suggest the storms may arrive later in the evening, after the most favourable tornado environment begins to weaken.

A secondary cluster of storms may also approach regions further south and west, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the eastern Lake Huron shoreline during the late afternoon and early evening hours. At this point, damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threat in these areas, while the hail and tornado risk looks lower, although it can never be completely ruled out.

As these clusters of storms track northeast, they are expected to gradually weaken by the late evening as the daytime heating fuelling them begins to fade away. Due to this, there remains some uncertainty regarding how far east the severe risk will extend, as it will largely depend on how quickly the storms move before losing access to the strongest instability.

We have gone with a slight (level 2 out of 5) severe thunderstorm risk for locations including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, Sarnia, Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Hanover, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Collingwood, Midland, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Britt, Manitoulin Island, Sudbury, North Bay, Algonquin Park and Deep River. This is the area most likely to experience the strongest storms today, but it’s important to remember that not everyone within the risk zone will necessarily see severe weather.

A marginal (level 1 out of 5) severe thunderstorm risk includes London, St. Thomas, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Brantford, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville, Barrie, Orillia, Bancroft, Pembroke and Renfrew. If severe weather develops in these areas, it will most likely be isolated damaging wind gusts associated with weakening storms during the evening hours.

Non-severe thunderstorms are also possible for the Greater Toronto Area and parts of Eastern Ontario. While widespread severe weather is not expected there at this time, any storms that do develop could still produce frequent lightning, heavy downpours and locally gusty winds.

Turning towards Tuesday, the overall severe weather setup may become even more favourable and widespread, but confidence in storm development itself remains lower.

A very warm and unstable atmosphere is expected to build across Southern Ontario throughout the afternoon and evening hours. If storms are able to form, they could rapidly intensify and become severe across Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe and areas surrounding Lake Simcoe, along with Central and Eastern Ontario. This setup would support all severe weather hazards, including damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

However, forecast models continue to struggle with exactly where storms will initiate and whether they will develop at all. That uncertainty is preventing a more aggressive severe weather outlook at this time.

Current indications suggest isolated thunderstorms may first begin developing around Grey-Bruce during the mid-afternoon hours before slowly tracking southeast toward regions around Lake Simcoe between roughly 2-5 PM. Additional thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest and along the Lake Erie shoreline later in the day.

Like Monday, these storms will be heavily dependent on daytime heating and atmospheric instability. Once the sun begins to set around 8-9 PM, any storms that have developed are expected to gradually weaken fairly quickly.

At this time, it appears the Ottawa Valley may remain outside the main severe weather risk on Tuesday. However, that could still change in our final outlook as confidence increases regarding storm development and storm coverage. The atmosphere across Eastern Ontario will still be somewhat supportive of marginally severe thunderstorms, but confidence is currently not high enough to formally include those regions within the isolated severe risk area.

May 16, 2026

Victoria Day to Bring Early Tease of Summer to Southern Ontario With 30°C Heat and Severe Storm Risk on Monday

May 16, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After a chilly and wet start to May across Southern Ontario, it finally looks like summer is ready to make an appearance, just in time for the Victoria Day long weekend.

The first half of the month has certainly felt more like an extension of early spring than the lead-up to summer. We’ve dealt with multiple rounds of widespread frost, temperatures consistently running below seasonal, and even reports of wet flurries in some areas.

While we did get a brief taste of severe weather with Canada’s first confirmed tornado of 2026 on May 9th near Lucan (northwest of London), the summer-like warmth has been hard to come by. That’s about to change!

The Victoria Day long weekend, often considered the “unofficial start of summer” in Ontario, is expected to fully live up to the title this year. A significant warm-up is set to spread across Southern Ontario through the weekend, peaking on Monday with widespread summer-like heat and humidity.

The hottest temperatures on Monday are expected to be found in Deep Southwestern Ontario extending into the western GTA and Niagara region, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Grand Bend, Woodstock, Brantford, Hamilton and Niagara Falls. Daytime highs in these areas are likely to range between 30-33°C with humidex values potentially approaching 35°C at times.

While many will be excited to finally enjoy some summer-like weather, it’s important to remember that the first major heat event of the season can be particularly stressful on the body. Be sure to stay hydrated, limit strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Pets can also quickly overheat on hot pavement, so it’s a good idea to check surfaces before heading out for a walk.

For much of the rest of Southern Ontario, daytime highs are expected to range between 27-30°C, with the humidity making it feel into the low 30s. This includes Toronto, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, Kingston and Ottawa.

The higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands are likely to remain a few degrees cooler, with areas like Orangeville and Shelburne expected to top out closer to 24-27°C.

Meanwhile, temperatures directly along portions of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shoreline may stay noticeably cooler thanks to developing lake breezes. Southwest winds coming off the still-cool lake waters will help suppress temperatures near the shoreline through the afternoon hours.

As a result, locations such as Picton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Fort Erie, Port Colborne, Port Dover, Turkey Point and Leamington could struggle to climb much beyond the low 20s despite the intense heat further inland.

A similar cooling effect is expected along the Bruce Peninsula, Manitoulin Island and parts of the northern Georgian Bay shoreline. Locations such as Britt, Manitoulin Island and Tobermory are also expected to remain closer to 20°C.

The heat is expected to continue into Tuesday with similar daytime highs before a cold front sweeps through later in the week, returning temperatures closer to seasonal or even slightly below seasonal levels.

Another concern with the return of summer-like heat will be the increasing fire danger across parts of the province. According to the latest forecast from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System, portions of Deep Southwestern Ontario could see fire danger levels reach high or even extreme on Monday, thanks to the combination of hot temperatures, dry conditions and gusty winds.

With many people planning campfires and fireworks for the Victoria Day long weekend, it’s especially important to use extra caution with any open flames. Be sure to follow all local burning regulations and fire bans, and check with your local municipality before setting off fireworks or lighting a fire. Under high or extreme fire danger conditions, even a small spark can quickly spread and become difficult to control.

With the return of summer-like heat also comes the return of increasing atmospheric instability, which can help fuel thunderstorms. The next few days are expected to feature multiple opportunities for thunderstorms across parts of Southern Ontario.

The first round is expected Sunday night into Monday morning as a batch of non-severe nocturnal thunderstorms potentially tracks through areas near Lake Huron extending into Central and Eastern Ontario.

That activity may help set the stage for another round of storms later Monday afternoon and evening. At this point, the greatest risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears to be focused east of Georgian Bay around Muskoka, Parry Sound and Algonquin Park. A line of storms may also develop over Michigan and track into Deep Southwestern Ontario later Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the exact intensity remains unclear by the time it reaches the border.

Locations that could potentially see isolated severe storms on Monday include Goderich, Kincardine, Hanover, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Collingwood, Midland, Orillia, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Britt, North Bay, Sudbury, Algonquin Park, Bancroft, Pembroke and Deep River.

It remains too early to determine the exact storm mode and whether any tornado risk will develop. For now, all severe weather hazards remain possible including damaging wind gusts, large hail and torrential rainfall.

A more detailed severe weather outlook, including specific risk categories and hazard breakdowns, will be issued Sunday night or Monday morning once higher resolution forecast models come into range and confidence improves on the exact storm setup.

We’re also monitoring the potential for a more widespread severe thunderstorm risk on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region later in the day.

However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the cold front. If it arrives later Tuesday afternoon or evening, there would likely be enough daytime heating available to support stronger storms. If the front arrives overnight or earlier in the day, it could significantly reduce instability and limit the severe weather potential.

At this point, isolated thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, but the exact location and intensity of the strongest storms remains uncertain.

May 09, 2026

🔔⛈️ Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today Focused on Southwestern Ontario with Damaging Winds, Large Hail & an Isolated Tornado Cannot be Ruled Out

May 09, 2026/ Adam Skinner

Southern Ontario is facing a fairly widespread thunderstorm risk this afternoon and evening, Saturday, May 9, 2026 with the potential for isolated severe thunderstorm activity.

The strongest potential for severe thunderstorms will be in the yellow region, especially between roughly 3 and 7 PM across deep Southwestern Ontario. Storms in this area could bring damaging wind gusts, large hail around 1 to 3 cm in size, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. Isolated tornado activity cannot be ruled out in the yellow region today as well, so we’ll be live streaming on our YouTube channel to monitor for any signs of organized rotation.

In the green region, the main threats will be strong wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall, which could create difficult travel conditions for many. There is a small chance that wind gusts or hail in the green region could briefly reach severe limits, which is why we’ve highlighted it for an isolated severe risk.

We’ll also be sending out Environment Canada’s official watches and warnings through our free InstantWeather app, along with possible custom notifications if we spot anything worth notifying.

And in some exciting news, we’re planning to launch our completely revamped free app on June 1st! It includes dark mode, a widget, and a full rebuild from the ground up for better performance, reduced battery usage, and an improved experience overall. We’ve also built the original app experience into the new version for those who prefer it. :)

More details coming ASAP. Woohoo!

April 22, 2026

Buckle Up: Parts of Saskatchewan & Manitoba About to Get Hammered By an Intense Spring Storm This Week

April 22, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

We may be in the latter half of April, but winter is still hanging on across the Prairies. On Wednesday, a massive low pressure system will begin to develop which will bring chaos to Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the next few days.

Unfortunately, we’re looking at all precipitation types in both provinces, with some places possibly expecting full-on blizzard conditions, while others could see temperatures in the 20s and severe thunderstorms. This makes for a very complicated forecast, but we’ll do our best to break it down for you here.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 12pm cst/1pm CT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7pm cst/8pm CT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

An area of light to moderate rainfall began to move into Northern Saskatchewan from Alberta on Wednesday morning, which then started to transition to snow before the lunch hour.

Through the afternoon and into the evening, the area of snowfall will expand and spread eastward as the low strengthens and becomes more organized. Meanwhile, the trailing rainfall will make its way into Central and Southern Saskatchewan.

The snowfall will be fairly light at first, but there is expected to be some pockets of more moderate snowfall during the evening. However, things will really start to ramp up as we get later in the evening and continuing into the overnight hours, just as the leading edge of the storm will start to cross into Northern Manitoba.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 12am cst/1am CT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6am cst/7Am CT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

This is when the heaviest snow will start to develop, falling at a rate of up to 3cm/hr, and it is expected to persist well into the afternoon across a significant swath of Northern Saskatchewan.

Meanwhile, the heavy rain that is expected to track through West Central and Southwest Saskatchewan overnight Wednesday will start to transition over to snow Thursday morning, as cold air from the Arctic is pulled in around the backside of the system. A quick 5-15cm of snow will be dumped over much of this region by the late afternoon/early evening, at which time this area of snowfall will begin to dissipate.

Also during the early morning hours, freezing rain and ice pellets will be added to the mixture of rain and snow in Northeastern Saskatchewan and into Northern Manitoba. The freezing rain could be quite heavy at times across a fairly narrow path that stretches from approximately Cumberland House and Flin Flon to the Ontario border.

Ice accretions above 5mm, and even as high as 10mm, are possible by the early afternoon Thursday, which has prompted Environment Canada to issue Winter Storm and Freezing Rain Warnings alongside the Snowfall Warnings. This is a significant amount of ice buildup that will likely damage both trees and powerlines and could lead to prolonged power outages for the area, so be prepared.

***Environment Canada Thunderstorm Lookout Map for Thursday morning***

The situation across Southern Manitoba and into the Southeast corner of Saskatchewan will be remarkably different. Late Wednesday evening and into the early morning hours of Thursday, there will be the risk of some elevated thunderstorms, particularly to the east of Brandon, that could have the potential to produce up to Toonie-sized hail.

Temperatures will then climb into the upper teens and low 20s in the afternoon in this region before the cold front slides through during the late afternoon and evening. This will trigger development of additional, marginally severe thunderstorms from Winnipeg eastward.

***Environment Canada Thunderstorm Lookout Map for Thursday Afternoon and evening***

The thunderstorms will likely form in lines, but an individual supercell or two could be possible. These storms may produce strong wind gusts up to 90km/h, Toonie-sized, and the possibility of a tornado can not be ruled out.

As of Wednesday afternoon, this thunderstorm development is conditional on a few factors so if, when, and where they might occur could change. We will definitely be watching the situation closely.

Outside of this area, to the north and west, there is a lesser risk from thunderstorms throughout the day, with strong wind gusts being the main concern. We will go into more detail about the wind later in the forecast.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7pm cst/8pm CT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5Am cst/6Am CT on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

As we get into Thursday evening, the system begins to lose some organization in Saskatchewan, while the heavier snow sets up in Northern Manitoba.

Overnight, the low will start to track northward and it will continue along with path through the day Friday. During this time, there is a possibility of brief freezing drizzle in Central Manitoba, but very little ice would build up.

The heavy snow will continue to fall in Northern Manitoba into the afternoon, while large areas of lighter snow will wrap around the low and settle over Saskatchewan for the majority of the day.

By Friday evening, the entire system will start to fall apart and the snow will taper off overnight. A few flurries will linger through Saturday morning, which may add a centimetre or two to the total accumulations across both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

By the time the storm has finished, a total of 25-50cm of fresh snow is expected to fall across a large stretch of Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. An area of 15-25cm will extend southward into Central Saskatchewan while most of the rest of the province will be in the 5-15cm range.

Heavy rain is also a concern for areas to the south of the heaviest snowfall. Rainfall totals approaching 30mm could lead to some localized flooding, especially in areas where the ground is still partially frozen.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6pm cst/7pm CT on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

Precipitation will not be the only hazard this storm brings; strong wind gusts will also be a concern.

Strong wind gusts up to 90km/h, and possibly up to 100km/h in the Cypress Hills area, will develop this evening in Southeastern Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan. These strong winds will continue in this region through to the morning before they start to travel eastward. They will cross Southern Saskatchewan through the day and into Southwest Manitoba by the evening, before they die down overnight.

Further north, where the heavy snow is slated to fall, the winds will not be quite as strong, topping out at around 70km/h. This still poses a major issue as it will likely lead to widespread whiteouts, and even crossing the threshold of being a blizzard, across Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. These will be treacherous conditions to attempt to travel in this region, so it will be best to postpone any unnecessary travel until the storm is over.

***The ECMWF model showing Maximum Wind gust by 12pm CST/1PM CT Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

March 31, 2026

Large Hail and Isolated Tornado Risk on Tuesday for Southwestern Ontario and Golden Horseshoe With Widespread Severe Storm Threat

March 31, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Southern Ontario faces the first widespread severe weather threat of 2026 on Tuesday, which is already underway as overnight storms carrying a flooding and hail risk developed around midnight.

While the severe risk overnight is fairly limited, it could still be quite a noisy night across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

The main risk on Tuesday is expected to take shape Tuesday afternoon and continue into the evening. A complex of storms is set to develop by early afternoon over Michigan and gradually slide into Southwestern Ontario through the afternoon.

Ahead of this line, rising temperatures reaching into the 20s in some areas of Southwestern Ontario will provide sufficient heating to fuel increasing intensity as the line builds to the southwest.

The strongest storm environment appears to be focused on Deep Southwestern Ontario such as Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia and the London region. This is where we could see more isolated storm development rather than the more linear development to the north. As such, we have gone with a slight severe risk.

That may allow for a few rotating storms, and therefore an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. It’s certainly not the main risk though.

The primary threat is large hail that could approach Timbit size, along with isolated wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h.

There is a marginal severe risk for areas east of Lake Huron and up to the Niagara Escarpment where there will be a sharp cut off in temperature. This will lead to storms quickly fizzling out as they lose access to the heat that was fueling them.

This includes Goderich, Kincardine, Hanover, Orangeville, Kitchener, Guelph, Hamilton, Brantford and the Niagara region.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, non severe thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and evening across Central and Eastern Ontario, but they will be on the weaker side due to temperatures remaining in the single digits. Small hail could still be a threat, with the colder air making it possible for weaker updrafts to sustain larger than usual hail.

Another round of storms may impact Deep Southwestern Ontario during the late evening, but it is questionable how strong they will be because they will be occurring after sunset and the storms will lose access to daylight heating.

All storm risk should diminish in all areas by midnight as colder air ushers temperatures back into the single digits for Wednesday.

March 10, 2026

Major Ice Storm Targeting Ottawa Area Wednesday, Up to 25mm of Freezing Rain Threatens Power Outages Across Central and Eastern Ontario

March 10, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A complex weather story is set to unfold across Southern Ontario over the next 24 hours as cold and warm air clash across the region while a moisture-laden system moves through.

The biggest impact will come in the form of a concerning prolonged ice storm event across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In some areas, this freezing rain could be nearly non-stop for much of Wednesday, leading to up to 24 hours of persistent icing. The worst of the freezing rain is expected to begin overnight Tuesday and continue into Wednesday morning, with a second round arriving later in the day.

The Ottawa Valley and northern sections of Eastern and Central Ontario appear likely to take the brunt of the ice storm, with up to 15-25mm of ice accretion possible. That amount of ice is more than enough to cause substantial damage to infrastructure, raising the threat of widespread and potentially prolonged power outages that may last for days or even weeks.

To make matters worse, some of those hardest hit areas may remain below freezing for the entire duration of the event before temperatures plunge even further late Wednesday as colder air floods in behind the system. This would lock in the ice accretion and allow it to continue weighing down trees and power lines for the foreseeable future. Stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 km/h early Thursday could add additional strain and prompt even more power outages.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, the story will be some noisy nocturnal thunderstorms moving in early Wednesday morning from Michigan. While these storms should remain sub-severe for the most part, they could still produce strong wind gusts that may briefly reach marginally severe levels in a few pockets. Another concern is that this rain could further exacerbate the ongoing spring flooding that is already leading to higher water levels in many watersheds, with widespread 15–30mm of additional rainfall on tap.

After this system moves out, we are set to enter a cooler and more active pattern beginning with a potential snowy system on Friday. Confidence remains fairly low in the exact setup, and some mixing could reduce snowfall totals, especially near the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Huron. However, it could still deliver a widespread 5-15cm of snow, bringing back a snowy landscape that has been melted away in many areas over the past few days.

Current indications suggest the leading edge of the system will begin to move into Southwestern Ontario around or just after midnight. That will arrive in the form of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms stretching across Lake Huron. These storms are actually part of a larger line that merged from earlier severe activity over Illinois and Indiana, where a severe weather outbreak is underway Tuesday evening.

However, by the time these storms reach our region, and especially given that they will need to travel over the cold waters of Lake Huron, we expect they will have weakened considerably by landfall.

There is still an outside chance that a few embedded cells could remain strong enough to produce a marginal wind threat, particularly around Windsor and Sarnia, but that scenario remains very questionable.

Regardless of their strength, these storms will likely wake many residents up overnight thanks to frequent lightning and very heavy downpours.

Further north, the system will encounter a pocket of below-freezing temperatures over the Bruce Peninsula. With warm air in place above the surface, this will allow a swath of freezing rain to develop starting over the Northern Bruce Peninsula and spreading eastward into areas east of Georgian Bay during the pre-dawn hours.

This icing could be quite heavy at times and may even feature some embedded lightning. Across the Sudbury and North Bay areas, precipitation should initially remain on the snow side with some ice pellets mixed in.

In advance of the system, we may also see some scattered freezing drizzle develop late Tuesday evening and continue into the overnight hours across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario.

That swath of freezing rain will continue to progress eastward, with the freezing line roughly located from Bracebridge to Brockville.

Locations just to the south of this line, such as Midland, Orillia, Lindsay and Peterborough, may begin with some freezing rain, but precipitation should quickly transition over to rain as the warmer air advances northward through the mid-morning hours.

This setup will allow the most intense icing to occur from Parry Sound through Huntsville and into Bancroft just before sunrise. It should be noted that some northern sections, such as Algonquin Park, Pembroke and Sundridge, could remain just cold enough to keep some precipitation falling as ice pellets before reaching the ground. This would delay the onset of icing somewhat and reduce overall ice accretion in those locations.

Meanwhile, the line of thunderstorms will continue tracking through Southwestern Ontario, slowly weakening as it approaches the Golden Horseshoe while still producing lightning and heavy rain. This rainfall could be quite intense at times and may lead to rapid accumulation, putting further strain on already saturated watersheds due to ongoing spring runoff. That could trigger additional flooding in some low-lying areas.

By mid-morning, the heavy freezing rain is expected to move into the Ottawa Valley, where it may persist through the late morning hours, bringing rapid ice accretion. Travel could quickly become treacherous for the morning commute in the Ottawa area, and within a few hours, the accumulating ice will likely begin taking a toll on the power grid.

We may also see the freezing rain line nudge northward into North Bay and Sudbury as warmer air aloft continues to expand northward despite the colder air at the surface remaining stubborn.

For the southern parts of Central Ontario, such as Bracebridge, Haliburton and Kawartha Lakes, it appears the warm air will eventually be able to overcome the cold air near the surface. This would allow these areas to escape the worst impacts, although they remain right on the line. If the cold air proves more stubborn than expected, it could keep these areas in freezing rain for several additional hours.

That will likely not be the case farther north across Central and Eastern Ontario, including much of the Ottawa Valley, where models suggest the freezing line will stall to the south.

There remains some disagreement among the models regarding exactly how far north the warmer air will be able to advance. The best chance for temperatures to rise above freezing appears to be along the St. Lawrence River and southeast of Ottawa.

While precipitation should briefly lighten to drizzle by early afternoon as the first round moves into Quebec, additional steady precipitation will begin advancing from the southwest. This second round appears less intense than the first and will likely be light to moderate rather than a continuous downpour of freezing rain.

That precipitation should reach the Ottawa Valley by late Wednesday afternoon, with persistent freezing rain potentially continuing through the evening and into the early morning hours of Thursday. However, the precipitation should become more scattered after midnight, gradually tapering off to drizzle.

Some parts of the Ottawa Valley may briefly rise above freezing, particularly near the southern edge of the ice storm risk around Bancroft, Smiths Falls and Cornwall. If that occurs, it would reduce the overall impact in these areas, although the temperature gradient will be extremely tight.

The hardest hit regions for freezing rain are expected to encompass a large portion of Eastern Ontario along the Quebec border and into the Ottawa Valley. In these areas, total ice accretion is likely to range from 15 to 25mm with localized amounts approaching 30mm.

That includes Ottawa, Hawkesbury, Alexandria, Carleton Place, Perth, Arnprior, Renfrew, Cloyne, Bancroft, Haliburton, Barry’s Bay and Pembroke.

However, keep in mind that actual surface accretion may end up somewhat lower since a large portion of the precipitation will fall during a short timeframe. Some of it may drip off surfaces before it has time to fully freeze when it arrives in heavy bursts.

Another major factor will be whether any areas are able to briefly climb above the freezing mark during the afternoon before the arrival of the second wave of precipitation. If that occurs, some of the earlier ice could melt away and make the second round far less efficient when it comes to additional ice accretion.

That is why this event could easily end up being far less damaging than currently forecast if temperatures trend just slightly warmer. There is often very little middle ground when it comes to ice storms, which is why there is such a tight gradient in our forecast ice totals.

Current projections suggest around 10-15mm of ice for northern sections of Central Ontario, including Parry Sound, Burk’s Falls, Huntsville, Algonquin Park and Deep River. This also extends into the Northern Bruce Peninsula. The slightly lower ice totals are due to temperatures potentially rising near Georgian Bay before the arrival of the second round of precipitation, along with the possibility of ice pellets mixing in farther north.

A similar situation may occur just south of the core ice storm zone, including Apsley, Kaladar, Smiths Falls, Kemptville and Cornwall. We expect the freezing line to eventually reach these areas by the afternoon, shutting off the freezing rain threat and substantially limiting the overall impact compared to locations farther north.

Further south, we are expecting around 5-10mm of ice from Bracebridge through Havelock, Tweed and into Morrisburg. Again, these areas should eventually rise above freezing, which will limit the impact mainly to the morning hours when icing is most persistent.

Across the Midland and Gravenhurst to Fenelon Falls corridor extending eastward toward Brockville, freezing rain should be more brief, primarily during the morning hours, leading to roughly 2-5mm of icing at most. We may also see around 2mm of icing in the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, including Orangeville and Shelburne and extending into the Blue Mountains, although it remains uncertain if temperatures will be cold enough here for significant icing.

Very little icing is expected once you reach Lake Simcoe and areas stretching toward Kingston along the Lake Ontario shoreline. This includes Orillia, Lindsay, Peterborough and Belleville. There may be a brief one to two-hour window of freezing rain early in the morning, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing. Less than 2mm of ice accretion is expected.

**max wind gusts (km/h)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

While the freezing rain should taper off overnight Wednesday, the impacts may continue into Thursday in areas where earlier ice accretion remains locked in place as temperatures drop once again overnight. Ice-covered trees and power lines will remain vulnerable to wind due to the additional weight from the ice.

Unfortunately, stronger wind gusts could develop early Thursday morning with gusts potentially reaching 60-80 km/h in parts of Eastern Ontario. If significant ice remains in place, that would be a recipe for substantial damage to the power grid.

It also does not appear that the ice will be melting anytime soon. The pattern into next week looks to feature mostly below freezing temperatures across Eastern Ontario with wind chills dropping into the negative teens. That could make for dangerous conditions if widespread power outages occur and many homes are left without heat.

**rainfall totals (mm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As for rainfall totals, we are expecting generally around 15-30mm across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe. Localized pockets could see up to 50mm thanks to persistent thunderstorm activity, particularly along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Looking ahead to Friday, we are also monitoring a potential widespread snowfall event across much of Southern Ontario.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding who may see the heaviest snowfall due to the potential for rain mixing in depending on the exact track of the system. However, current indications suggest the heaviest snow could fall across Central and Eastern Ontario, where up to 5-15cm may accumulate throughout the day on Friday.

With Eastern Ontario likely still recovering from the ice storm, that snowfall could add even more weight to already weakened trees and infrastructure. This may lead to another round of falling branches and potentially additional power outages.

More details on Friday’s system will be provided in a separate forecast later this week.

March 06, 2026

Southern Ontario Could Soar Near 20°C This Weekend as ‘March Melt’ Triggers Rapid Snowmelt, Flooding Risk and Thunderstorms

March 06, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After what felt like a winter that would never end across Southern Ontario, our first widespread taste of spring-like weather is finally on the horizon just in time for the weekend.

While parts of Southwestern Ontario have already seen brief stretches of double-digit temperatures this year, those warmer readings have been fairly localized. That is about to change on Saturday as temperatures are expected to soar well into the double digits across most of Southern Ontario. There is even a chance that Deep Southwestern Ontario could see the first 20°C day of the year.

Unfortunately, this warm-up will come at a cost. The milder temperatures will arrive alongside heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorm activity beginning Friday evening and continuing through much of Saturday.

As the warmer air moves in, it will also bring a more unstable atmosphere. Because of this, there is a conditional risk for marginally severe storms in parts of Southwestern Ontario extending toward the Niagara region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this threat, as storms will have to contend with the very cold waters of Lake Huron and Lake Erie, which can act as a natural storm shield for Southern Ontario.

Another concern with this system is the flooding potential. The combination of double-digit temperatures and heavy rainfall over an area that still has a fairly significant snowpack, especially across Central Ontario, could lead to rapid snowmelt and rising water levels.

Current model guidance suggests that this brief warm spell could trigger rapid melting of the snowpack. This would introduce a large amount of additional water into local rivers and watersheds on top of the 25 to 50 mm of rainfall that is expected from this system.

Those in areas that are prone to spring flooding should begin preparing for the possibility of rising water levels over the next several days into early next week. As the snowpack melts and rain continues to fall, that water will gradually work its way through the watershed. Additional rainfall toward the middle of next week, combined with another round of double-digit temperatures, could further worsen the situation.

The first round of heavier rainfall is expected to develop late Friday and continue into the overnight hours. This area of rain may also contain embedded non-severe thunderstorms, particularly around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, extending eastward into parts of Eastern Ontario.

These pockets of storms may produce locally heavier rainfall totals along with small hail and frequent lightning strikes.

By mid-morning on Saturday, areas from Southwestern Ontario into the Greater Toronto Area should see a brief break from the heavier rainfall. Periods of drizzle may continue through the rest of the morning while the focus for heavier rain and thunderstorms shifts toward Eastern Ontario before gradually moving out by around the lunch hour.

Another cluster of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop and move into Southwestern Ontario sometime during the late morning or early afternoon hours. There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the exact intensity of this line as it crosses Southern Ontario.

It cannot be ruled out that a marginally severe storm could develop within this cluster. The main threats would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. This risk appears to be slightly higher around the Niagara region, where storms could move into an environment that becomes more favourable for severe weather through the early to mid-afternoon hours.

After this cluster moves through, there is also the possibility of additional isolated storms developing over Michigan and Lake Huron. These storms could then track into Southwestern Ontario by the late afternoon or early evening hours.

This time period may present the greatest severe weather potential of the day. However, there is still uncertainty related to the timing of the earlier cluster of storms. If that earlier activity clears out quickly enough, it would allow the atmosphere time to recover and become unstable again by late afternoon, creating a more supportive environment for additional storm development.

Another important factor is the time of year. This would be our first thunderstorm risk of the season, and the lakes remain extremely cold. When storms move over these cold waters, they often weaken, which can limit their ability to become severe. This is one reason why early-season storm risks across Southern Ontario often underperform expectations.

Because of this uncertainty, we are currently forecasting a level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk, also known as a marginal risk. This represents the potential for storms capable of producing wind gusts up to around 90 km/h, hail up to quarter size and brief heavy rainfall. While the tornado risk appears to be fairly low, it can never be completely ruled out when dealing with severe thunderstorms.

Locations within the marginal risk area include Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Hanover, Brantford, Hamilton and Niagara Falls.

Across the rest of Southern Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area, Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, there will still be a chance for thunderstorms. However, most of these storms are expected to remain below severe limits and will likely occur during the overnight hours into Saturday morning and early afternoon.

Aside from the thunderstorm threat, heavy rainfall will be a major story with this system. Widespread rainfall totals of 25 to 50 mm are expected across many areas by the end of Saturday.

The heaviest rain is expected to stretch from the Lake Huron shoreline northeastward through Central Ontario and into portions of Eastern Ontario. Most areas within this corridor will likely see around 25 to 40 mm of rainfall, although localized thunderstorms could push totals closer to 50 mm or even as high as 65 mm in isolated locations where storms repeatedly track over the same area.

Deep Southwestern Ontario and parts of the Golden Horseshoe are expected to receive around 10 to 25 mm of rain. However, rainfall totals will be highly variable depending on thunderstorm activity. Some locations could easily exceed 25 mm if stronger storms develop.

**ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH (CM)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Even without the snowpack, this amount of rainfall would already be somewhat concerning for early March. In some areas, the ground remains partially frozen, which limits its ability to absorb rainfall efficiently and increases the likelihood of runoff.

The additional concern comes from the amount of snow still on the ground in parts of Southern Ontario. Snow depth remains quite significant across many areas, especially in Central Ontario.

Model estimates indicate that the deepest snowpack is currently located across Muskoka and into Algonquin Park. However, this is only an estimate. Given the amount of lake effect snow that some of these regions received this winter, the true depth may not be fully captured in the model data.

Current estimates suggest snow depths of roughly 50 to 100 cm in the deepest locations. That represents a large amount of stored water that will eventually enter local rivers and streams as melting begins.

With temperatures climbing well into the double digits on Saturday across much of Southern Ontario, including parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, the snowpack is expected to begin melting rapidly. When combined with 25 to 50 mm of rainfall, this could lead to a fairly rapid influx of water into the watershed.

Forecast models disagree somewhat on how quickly the snowpack will melt. The European model is slightly less aggressive with melting, while the American model shows a much more dramatic reduction in snow depth over the weekend.

According to the American model scenario, most of the snowpack across Southern Ontario could largely disappear by the end of Sunday. The only remaining snow would likely be confined to a small pocket around Muskoka with roughly 5 to 20 cm still on the ground.

If this scenario verifies, it would mean that a large portion of Southern Ontario’s snowpack could melt and enter the watershed within about 48 hours. That would represent a significant amount of water moving through the system in a relatively short period of time.

Residents in flood-prone areas, particularly those located near rivers and streams that commonly experience spring flooding, should be prepared for the possibility of rising water levels over the coming week. This concern is especially relevant across Central and Eastern Ontario, where much of the deeper snowpack is located.

In terms of temperatures, the warmest air is expected to arrive on Saturday. Daytime highs will climb well into the double digits by late morning and afternoon across most of Southern Ontario. For many locations, this will likely be the warmest day experienced so far in 2026.

The warmest conditions will likely occur across Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham. Current data support temperatures reaching the upper teens and possibly even approaching the 20°C mark for the first time this year. It is still somewhat uncertain whether temperatures will reach that milestone, but if it happens, the Windsor area would be the most likely location.

Across the rest of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe, daytime highs are expected to reach the mid to upper teens. Areas closer to the shorelines of the Great Lakes, along with higher elevations northwest of the Greater Toronto Area, may end up slightly cooler with highs closer to 12 to 15°C.

Double-digit temperatures should also extend into Central and Eastern Ontario. Highs around 12 to 15°C are expected from Lake Simcoe through Peterborough and into Brockville.

Areas directly along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Oshawa to Kingston will likely remain slightly cooler with daytime highs around 9 to 12°C due to the influence of the cold lake waters.

Across the rest of Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, temperatures are expected to reach the high single digits or low teens, with most areas topping out around 9 to 12°C.

A brief cooldown will arrive late Saturday night as colder air moves back into the region. Overnight lows will fall back near the freezing mark or into the low single digits. Daytime highs on Sunday will struggle to climb out of the single digits for many locations.

However, this cooldown will be short-lived. Double-digit temperatures are expected to return again on Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as the active weather pattern continues.

November 15, 2025

All the Seasons in One Weekend for Southern Ontario as Freezing Rain, Thunderstorms and Snow Squalls Line Up

November 15, 2025/ Brennen Perry

There is really only one way to describe what November has been like across Southern Ontario when it comes to the weather: a roller coaster.

Last weekend brought our first widespread snowfall event of the season. That was quickly followed by intense snow squalls that buried parts of the Lake Huron shoreline with more than 50 cm of snow early this week.

That seasonal whiplash continues this weekend as a clear battle sets up between cold, wintery air and much milder fall-like conditions. Eastern Ontario, especially around the Ottawa Valley, will stay on the cold side with a risk of prolonged freezing rain throughout the day on Saturday.

Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe will see a completely different story. Temperatures are set to rise into the double digits, and there is even a risk of thunderstorms on Saturday. Some of the warmest pockets around Windsor could briefly flirt with the 20s for a few hours.

By late Saturday, a sharp cold front will sweep through the region. This will send temperatures plunging again heading into Sunday, settling the battle in favour of the colder air. As this cold push arrives, the lake effect snow machine is expected to roar back to life over both Georgian Bay and Lake Huron.

We expect a frosty start to Saturday morning for most of Southern Ontario. Deep Southwestern Ontario will be the main exception as milder air starts to slide in early. Most areas should wake up close to the freezing mark. Deep Southwestern Ontario will already be climbing through the mid single digits.

By noon, Deep Southwestern Ontario should reach the double digits. Further northeast into the rest of Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe and parts of Central Ontario, temperatures will range from the low to mid single digits. The Ottawa Valley will remain near the freezing mark well into the afternoon as the surge of mild air stalls just to the southwest.

A developing system will start to spread heavy precipitation into Southern Ontario late Saturday morning or early afternoon. For most areas, temperatures will be warm enough for rain to be the dominant precipitation type. There’s even the risk of a thunderstorm!

Over the Ottawa Valley, however, we expect patchy freezing rain to form as temperatures linger stubbornly near the freezing mark.

Model guidance is not fully aligned on how warm the air will get in that region. Even a small shift of one or two degrees will change how long the freezing rain lasts and how much ice is able to accrete. This is one of the key uncertainties for Saturday.

Through Saturday evening, temperatures will continue climbing across much of Southwestern Ontario. Cities like London, Kitchener and Hamilton are expected to reach the double digits.

One important note is that daytime highs in many areas will actually be reached late in the evening instead of during the normal warmest part of the day!

Meanwhile, that pocket of near-freezing air over the Ottawa Valley is expected to hold on into the evening, which could allow several more hours of freezing rain.

As the system pulls east overnight Saturday, colder air will sweep in behind it. Temperatures will tumble through Sunday morning, switching any lingering precipitation to wet flurries by the time you wake up.

**Hourly snowfall rate (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Behind the front, bands of lake effect snow will begin developing off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Sunday. These bands look messy and disorganized through much of the day, although localized totals of 10 to 20 cm are possible.

By late Sunday, more focused and intense squalls could form, especially around the London region off Lake Huron. These squalls may continue into Monday and could lead to localized 20+ cm totals.

We will have a more detailed, dedicated lake effect forecast released soon.

When it comes to freezing rain accretion, there are several variables that could reduce or increase the amount of ice that actually builds up. This is a very temperature-sensitive event.

The heaviest icing is expected directly along the Quebec border and into the Hawkesbury region. Models show the potential for over 10 mm of freezing rain, but it is unclear how much of that will be able to stick. Heavy precipitation rates could limit the amount of ice that accumulates, and temperatures will sit very close to the freezing mark for much of the event.

Given all of this, we are going with a general 5 to 10 mm of icing for the hardest hit areas. If temperatures are even slightly warmer than expected, accretion could end up lower. This is certainly enough to lead to localized power outages and icy roads.

For the City of Ottawa, they sit right on the dividing line between lighter icing and heavy icing. We have placed them in the 2 to 5 mm range, but they could see locally up to 7 mm if the cold air becomes more stubborn than currently forecast.

Outside of the Ottawa Valley, expect minimal icing. Areas such as Bancroft, Cloyne, Perth, Carleton Place and Cornwall may see an hour or two of freezing rain before changing over to rain.

August 14, 2025

Severe Thunderstorms Possible for Manitoba Thursday, But Risk Remains Questionable

August 14, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The southern half of Manitoba, particularly in the southeast, could see some severe thunderstorms today when a cold front tracks through the region. However, in typical Manitoba fashion, whether storms end up even developing today is very questionable.

The cold front will begin to move through Southern Manitoba early this afternoon and it should reach the Winnipeg area around the late afternoon or early evening hours. Normally, a cold front is more than enough to trigger severe thunderstorms, but the issue is that there is expected to be a significant amount of capping in the atmosphere today, which would greatly inhibit thunderstorm development.

Due to this capping, there is considerable disagreement between weather models regarding when and where thunderstorms could end up forming today. There are those that show storms initiating in Southern Manitoba beginning in the late afternoon, while other models have storm development beginning much later, once the cold front has crossed into Northern Ontario. To cover this range in possibilities, our forecast has a Slight risk from the Red River Valley to the Ontario border.

***The hrdps model showing thunderstorms to the south and east of lake Winnipeg at 6pm CT, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

If storms end up developing in Manitoba later today, they will likely start off as isolated supercell thunderstorms along the front that should then quickly merge into a line of storms that continues tracking eastward. These could end up being quite strong storms, especially since the same cold front triggered strong severe thunderstorms in Central Saskatchewan yesterday which produced some very damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornado warnings.

The risks in Manitoba today are much the same if the storms end up developing here: very strong wind gusts that could be well in excess of 100km/h, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and torrential downpours that could lead to localized flooding. There is also the possibility of an isolated tornado, especially closer to the Ontario border.

We will be keeping an eye on how the situation unfolds today and if storms end up forming within the province later today, we will provide updates and probably livestream.

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