March 10, 2026

Major Ice Storm Targeting Ottawa Area Wednesday, Up to 25mm of Freezing Rain Threatens Power Outages Across Central and Eastern Ontario

March 10, 2026/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

A complex weather story is set to unfold across Southern Ontario over the next 24 hours as cold and warm air clash across the region while a moisture-laden system moves through.

The biggest impact will come in the form of a concerning prolonged ice storm event across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In some areas, this freezing rain could be nearly non-stop for much of Wednesday, leading to up to 24 hours of persistent icing. The worst of the freezing rain is expected to begin overnight Tuesday and continue into Wednesday morning, with a second round arriving later in the day.

The Ottawa Valley and northern sections of Eastern and Central Ontario appear likely to take the brunt of the ice storm, with up to 15-25mm of ice accretion possible. That amount of ice is more than enough to cause substantial damage to infrastructure, raising the threat of widespread and potentially prolonged power outages that may last for days or even weeks.

To make matters worse, some of those hardest hit areas may remain below freezing for the entire duration of the event before temperatures plunge even further late Wednesday as colder air floods in behind the system. This would lock in the ice accretion and allow it to continue weighing down trees and power lines for the foreseeable future. Stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 km/h early Thursday could add additional strain and prompt even more power outages.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, the story will be some noisy nocturnal thunderstorms moving in early Wednesday morning from Michigan. While these storms should remain sub-severe for the most part, they could still produce strong wind gusts that may briefly reach marginally severe levels in a few pockets. Another concern is that this rain could further exacerbate the ongoing spring flooding that is already leading to higher water levels in many watersheds, with widespread 15–30mm of additional rainfall on tap.

After this system moves out, we are set to enter a cooler and more active pattern beginning with a potential snowy system on Friday. Confidence remains fairly low in the exact setup, and some mixing could reduce snowfall totals, especially near the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Huron. However, it could still deliver a widespread 5-15cm of snow, bringing back a snowy landscape that has been melted away in many areas over the past few days.

Current indications suggest the leading edge of the system will begin to move into Southwestern Ontario around or just after midnight. That will arrive in the form of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms stretching across Lake Huron. These storms are actually part of a larger line that merged from earlier severe activity over Illinois and Indiana, where a severe weather outbreak is underway Tuesday evening.

However, by the time these storms reach our region, and especially given that they will need to travel over the cold waters of Lake Huron, we expect they will have weakened considerably by landfall.

There is still an outside chance that a few embedded cells could remain strong enough to produce a marginal wind threat, particularly around Windsor and Sarnia, but that scenario remains very questionable.

Regardless of their strength, these storms will likely wake many residents up overnight thanks to frequent lightning and very heavy downpours.

Further north, the system will encounter a pocket of below-freezing temperatures over the Bruce Peninsula. With warm air in place above the surface, this will allow a swath of freezing rain to develop starting over the Northern Bruce Peninsula and spreading eastward into areas east of Georgian Bay during the pre-dawn hours.

This icing could be quite heavy at times and may even feature some embedded lightning. Across the Sudbury and North Bay areas, precipitation should initially remain on the snow side with some ice pellets mixed in.

In advance of the system, we may also see some scattered freezing drizzle develop late Tuesday evening and continue into the overnight hours across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario.

That swath of freezing rain will continue to progress eastward, with the freezing line roughly located from Bracebridge to Brockville.

Locations just to the south of this line, such as Midland, Orillia, Lindsay and Peterborough, may begin with some freezing rain, but precipitation should quickly transition over to rain as the warmer air advances northward through the mid-morning hours.

This setup will allow the most intense icing to occur from Parry Sound through Huntsville and into Bancroft just before sunrise. It should be noted that some northern sections, such as Algonquin Park, Pembroke and Sundridge, could remain just cold enough to keep some precipitation falling as ice pellets before reaching the ground. This would delay the onset of icing somewhat and reduce overall ice accretion in those locations.

Meanwhile, the line of thunderstorms will continue tracking through Southwestern Ontario, slowly weakening as it approaches the Golden Horseshoe while still producing lightning and heavy rain. This rainfall could be quite intense at times and may lead to rapid accumulation, putting further strain on already saturated watersheds due to ongoing spring runoff. That could trigger additional flooding in some low-lying areas.

By mid-morning, the heavy freezing rain is expected to move into the Ottawa Valley, where it may persist through the late morning hours, bringing rapid ice accretion. Travel could quickly become treacherous for the morning commute in the Ottawa area, and within a few hours, the accumulating ice will likely begin taking a toll on the power grid.

We may also see the freezing rain line nudge northward into North Bay and Sudbury as warmer air aloft continues to expand northward despite the colder air at the surface remaining stubborn.

For the southern parts of Central Ontario, such as Bracebridge, Haliburton and Kawartha Lakes, it appears the warm air will eventually be able to overcome the cold air near the surface. This would allow these areas to escape the worst impacts, although they remain right on the line. If the cold air proves more stubborn than expected, it could keep these areas in freezing rain for several additional hours.

That will likely not be the case farther north across Central and Eastern Ontario, including much of the Ottawa Valley, where models suggest the freezing line will stall to the south.

There remains some disagreement among the models regarding exactly how far north the warmer air will be able to advance. The best chance for temperatures to rise above freezing appears to be along the St. Lawrence River and southeast of Ottawa.

While precipitation should briefly lighten to drizzle by early afternoon as the first round moves into Quebec, additional steady precipitation will begin advancing from the southwest. This second round appears less intense than the first and will likely be light to moderate rather than a continuous downpour of freezing rain.

That precipitation should reach the Ottawa Valley by late Wednesday afternoon, with persistent freezing rain potentially continuing through the evening and into the early morning hours of Thursday. However, the precipitation should become more scattered after midnight, gradually tapering off to drizzle.

Some parts of the Ottawa Valley may briefly rise above freezing, particularly near the southern edge of the ice storm risk around Bancroft, Smiths Falls and Cornwall. If that occurs, it would reduce the overall impact in these areas, although the temperature gradient will be extremely tight.

The hardest hit regions for freezing rain are expected to encompass a large portion of Eastern Ontario along the Quebec border and into the Ottawa Valley. In these areas, total ice accretion is likely to range from 15 to 25mm with localized amounts approaching 30mm.

That includes Ottawa, Hawkesbury, Alexandria, Carleton Place, Perth, Arnprior, Renfrew, Cloyne, Bancroft, Haliburton, Barry’s Bay and Pembroke.

However, keep in mind that actual surface accretion may end up somewhat lower since a large portion of the precipitation will fall during a short timeframe. Some of it may drip off surfaces before it has time to fully freeze when it arrives in heavy bursts.

Another major factor will be whether any areas are able to briefly climb above the freezing mark during the afternoon before the arrival of the second wave of precipitation. If that occurs, some of the earlier ice could melt away and make the second round far less efficient when it comes to additional ice accretion.

That is why this event could easily end up being far less damaging than currently forecast if temperatures trend just slightly warmer. There is often very little middle ground when it comes to ice storms, which is why there is such a tight gradient in our forecast ice totals.

Current projections suggest around 10-15mm of ice for northern sections of Central Ontario, including Parry Sound, Burk’s Falls, Huntsville, Algonquin Park and Deep River. This also extends into the Northern Bruce Peninsula. The slightly lower ice totals are due to temperatures potentially rising near Georgian Bay before the arrival of the second round of precipitation, along with the possibility of ice pellets mixing in farther north.

A similar situation may occur just south of the core ice storm zone, including Apsley, Kaladar, Smiths Falls, Kemptville and Cornwall. We expect the freezing line to eventually reach these areas by the afternoon, shutting off the freezing rain threat and substantially limiting the overall impact compared to locations farther north.

Further south, we are expecting around 5-10mm of ice from Bracebridge through Havelock, Tweed and into Morrisburg. Again, these areas should eventually rise above freezing, which will limit the impact mainly to the morning hours when icing is most persistent.

Across the Midland and Gravenhurst to Fenelon Falls corridor extending eastward toward Brockville, freezing rain should be more brief, primarily during the morning hours, leading to roughly 2-5mm of icing at most. We may also see around 2mm of icing in the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, including Orangeville and Shelburne and extending into the Blue Mountains, although it remains uncertain if temperatures will be cold enough here for significant icing.

Very little icing is expected once you reach Lake Simcoe and areas stretching toward Kingston along the Lake Ontario shoreline. This includes Orillia, Lindsay, Peterborough and Belleville. There may be a brief one to two-hour window of freezing rain early in the morning, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing. Less than 2mm of ice accretion is expected.

**max wind gusts (km/h)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

While the freezing rain should taper off overnight Wednesday, the impacts may continue into Thursday in areas where earlier ice accretion remains locked in place as temperatures drop once again overnight. Ice-covered trees and power lines will remain vulnerable to wind due to the additional weight from the ice.

Unfortunately, stronger wind gusts could develop early Thursday morning with gusts potentially reaching 60-80 km/h in parts of Eastern Ontario. If significant ice remains in place, that would be a recipe for substantial damage to the power grid.

It also does not appear that the ice will be melting anytime soon. The pattern into next week looks to feature mostly below freezing temperatures across Eastern Ontario with wind chills dropping into the negative teens. That could make for dangerous conditions if widespread power outages occur and many homes are left without heat.

**rainfall totals (mm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As for rainfall totals, we are expecting generally around 15-30mm across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe. Localized pockets could see up to 50mm thanks to persistent thunderstorm activity, particularly along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Looking ahead to Friday, we are also monitoring a potential widespread snowfall event across much of Southern Ontario.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding who may see the heaviest snowfall due to the potential for rain mixing in depending on the exact track of the system. However, current indications suggest the heaviest snow could fall across Central and Eastern Ontario, where up to 5-15cm may accumulate throughout the day on Friday.

With Eastern Ontario likely still recovering from the ice storm, that snowfall could add even more weight to already weakened trees and infrastructure. This may lead to another round of falling branches and potentially additional power outages.

More details on Friday’s system will be provided in a separate forecast later this week.

March 06, 2026

Southern Ontario Could Soar Near 20°C This Weekend as ‘March Melt’ Triggers Rapid Snowmelt, Flooding Risk and Thunderstorms

March 06, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After what felt like a winter that would never end across Southern Ontario, our first widespread taste of spring-like weather is finally on the horizon just in time for the weekend.

While parts of Southwestern Ontario have already seen brief stretches of double-digit temperatures this year, those warmer readings have been fairly localized. That is about to change on Saturday as temperatures are expected to soar well into the double digits across most of Southern Ontario. There is even a chance that Deep Southwestern Ontario could see the first 20°C day of the year.

Unfortunately, this warm-up will come at a cost. The milder temperatures will arrive alongside heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorm activity beginning Friday evening and continuing through much of Saturday.

As the warmer air moves in, it will also bring a more unstable atmosphere. Because of this, there is a conditional risk for marginally severe storms in parts of Southwestern Ontario extending toward the Niagara region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this threat, as storms will have to contend with the very cold waters of Lake Huron and Lake Erie, which can act as a natural storm shield for Southern Ontario.

Another concern with this system is the flooding potential. The combination of double-digit temperatures and heavy rainfall over an area that still has a fairly significant snowpack, especially across Central Ontario, could lead to rapid snowmelt and rising water levels.

Current model guidance suggests that this brief warm spell could trigger rapid melting of the snowpack. This would introduce a large amount of additional water into local rivers and watersheds on top of the 25 to 50 mm of rainfall that is expected from this system.

Those in areas that are prone to spring flooding should begin preparing for the possibility of rising water levels over the next several days into early next week. As the snowpack melts and rain continues to fall, that water will gradually work its way through the watershed. Additional rainfall toward the middle of next week, combined with another round of double-digit temperatures, could further worsen the situation.

**SIMULATED RADAR** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first round of heavier rainfall is expected to develop late Friday and continue into the overnight hours. This area of rain may also contain embedded non-severe thunderstorms, particularly around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, extending eastward into parts of Eastern Ontario.

These pockets of storms may produce locally heavier rainfall totals along with small hail and frequent lightning strikes.

By mid-morning on Saturday, areas from Southwestern Ontario into the Greater Toronto Area should see a brief break from the heavier rainfall. Periods of drizzle may continue through the rest of the morning while the focus for heavier rain and thunderstorms shifts toward Eastern Ontario before gradually moving out by around the lunch hour.

Another cluster of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop and move into Southwestern Ontario sometime during the late morning or early afternoon hours. There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the exact intensity of this line as it crosses Southern Ontario.

It cannot be ruled out that a marginally severe storm could develop within this cluster. The main threats would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. This risk appears to be slightly higher around the Niagara region, where storms could move into an environment that becomes more favourable for severe weather through the early to mid-afternoon hours.

After this cluster moves through, there is also the possibility of additional isolated storms developing over Michigan and Lake Huron. These storms could then track into Southwestern Ontario by the late afternoon or early evening hours.

This time period may present the greatest severe weather potential of the day. However, there is still uncertainty related to the timing of the earlier cluster of storms. If that earlier activity clears out quickly enough, it would allow the atmosphere time to recover and become unstable again by late afternoon, creating a more supportive environment for additional storm development.

Another important factor is the time of year. This would be our first thunderstorm risk of the season, and the lakes remain extremely cold. When storms move over these cold waters, they often weaken, which can limit their ability to become severe. This is one reason why early-season storm risks across Southern Ontario often underperform expectations.

Because of this uncertainty, we are currently forecasting a level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk, also known as a marginal risk. This represents the potential for storms capable of producing wind gusts up to around 90 km/h, hail up to quarter size and brief heavy rainfall. While the tornado risk appears to be fairly low, it can never be completely ruled out when dealing with severe thunderstorms.

Locations within the marginal risk area include Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Hanover, Brantford, Hamilton and Niagara Falls.

Across the rest of Southern Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area, Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, there will still be a chance for thunderstorms. However, most of these storms are expected to remain below severe limits and will likely occur during the overnight hours into Saturday morning and early afternoon.

Aside from the thunderstorm threat, heavy rainfall will be a major story with this system. Widespread rainfall totals of 25 to 50 mm are expected across many areas by the end of Saturday.

The heaviest rain is expected to stretch from the Lake Huron shoreline northeastward through Central Ontario and into portions of Eastern Ontario. Most areas within this corridor will likely see around 25 to 40 mm of rainfall, although localized thunderstorms could push totals closer to 50 mm or even as high as 65 mm in isolated locations where storms repeatedly track over the same area.

Deep Southwestern Ontario and parts of the Golden Horseshoe are expected to receive around 10 to 25 mm of rain. However, rainfall totals will be highly variable depending on thunderstorm activity. Some locations could easily exceed 25 mm if stronger storms develop.

**ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH (CM)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Even without the snowpack, this amount of rainfall would already be somewhat concerning for early March. In some areas, the ground remains partially frozen, which limits its ability to absorb rainfall efficiently and increases the likelihood of runoff.

The additional concern comes from the amount of snow still on the ground in parts of Southern Ontario. Snow depth remains quite significant across many areas, especially in Central Ontario.

Model estimates indicate that the deepest snowpack is currently located across Muskoka and into Algonquin Park. However, this is only an estimate. Given the amount of lake effect snow that some of these regions received this winter, the true depth may not be fully captured in the model data.

Current estimates suggest snow depths of roughly 50 to 100 cm in the deepest locations. That represents a large amount of stored water that will eventually enter local rivers and streams as melting begins.

With temperatures climbing well into the double digits on Saturday across much of Southern Ontario, including parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, the snowpack is expected to begin melting rapidly. When combined with 25 to 50 mm of rainfall, this could lead to a fairly rapid influx of water into the watershed.

Forecast models disagree somewhat on how quickly the snowpack will melt. The European model is slightly less aggressive with melting, while the American model shows a much more dramatic reduction in snow depth over the weekend.

According to the American model scenario, most of the snowpack across Southern Ontario could largely disappear by the end of Sunday. The only remaining snow would likely be confined to a small pocket around Muskoka with roughly 5 to 20 cm still on the ground.

If this scenario verifies, it would mean that a large portion of Southern Ontario’s snowpack could melt and enter the watershed within about 48 hours. That would represent a significant amount of water moving through the system in a relatively short period of time.

Residents in flood-prone areas, particularly those located near rivers and streams that commonly experience spring flooding, should be prepared for the possibility of rising water levels over the coming week. This concern is especially relevant across Central and Eastern Ontario, where much of the deeper snowpack is located.

In terms of temperatures, the warmest air is expected to arrive on Saturday. Daytime highs will climb well into the double digits by late morning and afternoon across most of Southern Ontario. For many locations, this will likely be the warmest day experienced so far in 2026.

The warmest conditions will likely occur across Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham. Current data support temperatures reaching the upper teens and possibly even approaching the 20°C mark for the first time this year. It is still somewhat uncertain whether temperatures will reach that milestone, but if it happens, the Windsor area would be the most likely location.

Across the rest of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe, daytime highs are expected to reach the mid to upper teens. Areas closer to the shorelines of the Great Lakes, along with higher elevations northwest of the Greater Toronto Area, may end up slightly cooler with highs closer to 12 to 15°C.

Double-digit temperatures should also extend into Central and Eastern Ontario. Highs around 12 to 15°C are expected from Lake Simcoe through Peterborough and into Brockville.

Areas directly along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Oshawa to Kingston will likely remain slightly cooler with daytime highs around 9 to 12°C due to the influence of the cold lake waters.

Across the rest of Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, temperatures are expected to reach the high single digits or low teens, with most areas topping out around 9 to 12°C.

A brief cooldown will arrive late Saturday night as colder air moves back into the region. Overnight lows will fall back near the freezing mark or into the low single digits. Daytime highs on Sunday will struggle to climb out of the single digits for many locations.

However, this cooldown will be short-lived. Double-digit temperatures are expected to return again on Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as the active weather pattern continues.

November 15, 2025

All the Seasons in One Weekend for Southern Ontario as Freezing Rain, Thunderstorms and Snow Squalls Line Up

November 15, 2025/ Brennen Perry

There is really only one way to describe what November has been like across Southern Ontario when it comes to the weather: a roller coaster.

Last weekend brought our first widespread snowfall event of the season. That was quickly followed by intense snow squalls that buried parts of the Lake Huron shoreline with more than 50 cm of snow early this week.

That seasonal whiplash continues this weekend as a clear battle sets up between cold, wintery air and much milder fall-like conditions. Eastern Ontario, especially around the Ottawa Valley, will stay on the cold side with a risk of prolonged freezing rain throughout the day on Saturday.

Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe will see a completely different story. Temperatures are set to rise into the double digits, and there is even a risk of thunderstorms on Saturday. Some of the warmest pockets around Windsor could briefly flirt with the 20s for a few hours.

By late Saturday, a sharp cold front will sweep through the region. This will send temperatures plunging again heading into Sunday, settling the battle in favour of the colder air. As this cold push arrives, the lake effect snow machine is expected to roar back to life over both Georgian Bay and Lake Huron.

We expect a frosty start to Saturday morning for most of Southern Ontario. Deep Southwestern Ontario will be the main exception as milder air starts to slide in early. Most areas should wake up close to the freezing mark. Deep Southwestern Ontario will already be climbing through the mid single digits.

By noon, Deep Southwestern Ontario should reach the double digits. Further northeast into the rest of Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe and parts of Central Ontario, temperatures will range from the low to mid single digits. The Ottawa Valley will remain near the freezing mark well into the afternoon as the surge of mild air stalls just to the southwest.

A developing system will start to spread heavy precipitation into Southern Ontario late Saturday morning or early afternoon. For most areas, temperatures will be warm enough for rain to be the dominant precipitation type. There’s even the risk of a thunderstorm!

Over the Ottawa Valley, however, we expect patchy freezing rain to form as temperatures linger stubbornly near the freezing mark.

Model guidance is not fully aligned on how warm the air will get in that region. Even a small shift of one or two degrees will change how long the freezing rain lasts and how much ice is able to accrete. This is one of the key uncertainties for Saturday.

Through Saturday evening, temperatures will continue climbing across much of Southwestern Ontario. Cities like London, Kitchener and Hamilton are expected to reach the double digits.

One important note is that daytime highs in many areas will actually be reached late in the evening instead of during the normal warmest part of the day!

Meanwhile, that pocket of near-freezing air over the Ottawa Valley is expected to hold on into the evening, which could allow several more hours of freezing rain.

As the system pulls east overnight Saturday, colder air will sweep in behind it. Temperatures will tumble through Sunday morning, switching any lingering precipitation to wet flurries by the time you wake up.

**Hourly snowfall rate (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Behind the front, bands of lake effect snow will begin developing off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Sunday. These bands look messy and disorganized through much of the day, although localized totals of 10 to 20 cm are possible.

By late Sunday, more focused and intense squalls could form, especially around the London region off Lake Huron. These squalls may continue into Monday and could lead to localized 20+ cm totals.

We will have a more detailed, dedicated lake effect forecast released soon.

When it comes to freezing rain accretion, there are several variables that could reduce or increase the amount of ice that actually builds up. This is a very temperature-sensitive event.

The heaviest icing is expected directly along the Quebec border and into the Hawkesbury region. Models show the potential for over 10 mm of freezing rain, but it is unclear how much of that will be able to stick. Heavy precipitation rates could limit the amount of ice that accumulates, and temperatures will sit very close to the freezing mark for much of the event.

Given all of this, we are going with a general 5 to 10 mm of icing for the hardest hit areas. If temperatures are even slightly warmer than expected, accretion could end up lower. This is certainly enough to lead to localized power outages and icy roads.

For the City of Ottawa, they sit right on the dividing line between lighter icing and heavy icing. We have placed them in the 2 to 5 mm range, but they could see locally up to 7 mm if the cold air becomes more stubborn than currently forecast.

Outside of the Ottawa Valley, expect minimal icing. Areas such as Bancroft, Cloyne, Perth, Carleton Place and Cornwall may see an hour or two of freezing rain before changing over to rain.

August 14, 2025

Severe Thunderstorms Possible for Manitoba Thursday, But Risk Remains Questionable

August 14, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The southern half of Manitoba, particularly in the southeast, could see some severe thunderstorms today when a cold front tracks through the region. However, in typical Manitoba fashion, whether storms end up even developing today is very questionable.

The cold front will begin to move through Southern Manitoba early this afternoon and it should reach the Winnipeg area around the late afternoon or early evening hours. Normally, a cold front is more than enough to trigger severe thunderstorms, but the issue is that there is expected to be a significant amount of capping in the atmosphere today, which would greatly inhibit thunderstorm development.

Due to this capping, there is considerable disagreement between weather models regarding when and where thunderstorms could end up forming today. There are those that show storms initiating in Southern Manitoba beginning in the late afternoon, while other models have storm development beginning much later, once the cold front has crossed into Northern Ontario. To cover this range in possibilities, our forecast has a Slight risk from the Red River Valley to the Ontario border.

***The hrdps model showing thunderstorms to the south and east of lake Winnipeg at 6pm CT, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

If storms end up developing in Manitoba later today, they will likely start off as isolated supercell thunderstorms along the front that should then quickly merge into a line of storms that continues tracking eastward. These could end up being quite strong storms, especially since the same cold front triggered strong severe thunderstorms in Central Saskatchewan yesterday which produced some very damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornado warnings.

The risks in Manitoba today are much the same if the storms end up developing here: very strong wind gusts that could be well in excess of 100km/h, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and torrential downpours that could lead to localized flooding. There is also the possibility of an isolated tornado, especially closer to the Ontario border.

We will be keeping an eye on how the situation unfolds today and if storms end up forming within the province later today, we will provide updates and probably livestream.

August 13, 2025

Strong Severe Thunderstorms with Tornado Threat Possible in Central Alberta and Saskatchewan Throughout the Day & Overnight

August 13, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

There is a widespread chance for thunderstorms across Alberta and Saskatchewan today, with particularly strong storms also possible in parts of both provinces. A low pressure system has been developing in the Foothills this morning and is expected to track eastward into Saskatchewan by the mid to late afternoon. The warm and cold fronts associated with this low will be the trigger behind today’s thunderstorm development.

We’ve already begun to see some weak storms moving through parts of Central Alberta and additional isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop in the early to mid afternoon through the Foothills around Calgary and southward. Together, these storms are expected cross Alberta and into Saskatchewan through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms are then anticipated to continue crossing Central Saskatchewan through the evening and into the overnight hours, before they finally begin to taper off.

Despite the storms expected to be isolated throughout the day, the risk is widespread because it has been difficult to pin down exactly where the storms will impact. There is also the possibility of some capping, which could limit thunderstorm development from even occurring.

Today’s storms, if and when they develop, could easily strengthen to become strong supercell thunderstorms, which could have the potential to produce damaging winds in excess of 100km/h, hail as large as golf balls, and heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. The risk of these storms stretches from Calgary to Wynard, SK, however, we have highlighted an area where the strongest of today’s storms could possible hit.

This area covers parts of East Central Alberta and West Central Saskatchewan, from Wainwright, AB to Warman, SK and including Saskatoon, and is the bullseye for the greatest severe weather threat this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms that impact this region could possibly produce destructive wind gusts well in excess of 100km/h, as well as hail that could be as large as tennis balls and even heavier rain with an increased chance of flooding. This area could also end up seeing a tornado or two touch down.

We will be keeping a close eye on the situation throughout the day and we will likely be livestreaming later, once the thunderstorms have developed and strengthened.

July 25, 2025

Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Threat Across the Prairies Friday into Saturday, Tornado Risk in All Three Provinces

July 25, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The same system that brought some severe thunderstorms to Central and Northern Alberta yesterday, albeit much weaker than originally anticipated, could once again trigger severe thunderstorms today. This time, however, we’re looking at two distinct areas across the Prairies where severe thunderstorms could impact.

The first area of concern is across the southern half of Manitoba and in Eastern Saskatchewan, along the provincial border.

Isolated thunderstorms could start to develop along Saskatchewan-Manitoba border, especially in the area from Hudson Bay to Cumberland House, around the lunch hour. These storms should then track eastward into Manitoba fairly quickly and they could become severe while still in Saskatchewan. If the storms remain sub-severe as the enter Manitoba, it’s very likely that they will still strengthen to become severe as they continue eastward throughout the afternoon and evening.

Additional thunderstorm development could continue southwestward, back into Southeast Saskatchewan, throughout the afternoon. These storms are also expected to track eastward across Manitoba through the evening and overnight, leading to the widespread severe risk.

It’s worth noting that thunderstorm development throughout this entire area is slightly questionable. The environment will be primed with heat, moisture and instability, but there’s the possibility that capping in the atmosphere will prevent them from even forming in the first place. If this cap breaks, however, we could be looking at some explosive thunderstorm development.

Any storms that do develop will likely have the potential to produce golf ball-sized hail or larger, damaging wind wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding. There is also the risk of a tornado forming from storms that could move through Southwestern Manitoba and into the Interlake and Red River Valley in the evening. It’s possible that the tornado risk could extend into Winnipeg, but there is some uncertainty with how far east it goes.

***Simulated radar from the HRRR model shows the possible location of storms at 5pm CT, courtesy of Weather Bell.***

Meanwhile, there will also be the risk for severe thunderstorms to form in Southern Alberta, along the cold front that continues to push southward through the province.

Scattered thunderstorms could start to develop as early as the mid afternoon throughout the Foothills, mostly to the south of Red Deer. While some of the storms that could develop may become severe, those that develop from Airdrie to Claresholm will be the ones worth watching today.

It’s not until a bit later in the afternoon and into the evening that this area could see the development of thunderstorms. These particular storms will likely strengthen quickly into strong, long-track supercell thunderstorms that will travel eastward across Southern Alberta through the evening. It’s entirely possible that these supercell thunderstorms could maintain their strength through the evening and overnight as they push deep into Saskatchewan, possibly reaching as far east as Moose Jaw, and maybe even into Regina, in the early morning hours.

The threat from the severe storms in Alberta and into Saskatchewan today is very similar to yesterday, with the potential for golf ball-sized hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding, and even the possibility of a tornado. However, considering that yesterday’s High Risk from Environment Canada and expectations from weather models didn’t quite materialize, we’ve opted to go with a Slight Risk for Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today. However, the possibility is still there for strong storms to develop so be mindful of any Watches or Warnings that may be issued.

July 24, 2025

Strong Severe Thunderstorms with Tornado Threat Possible in Central Alberta, Widespread Severe Risk Throughout Northern Alberta and into Saskatchewan

July 24, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Now that a warm front has brought some heat back into Alberta, active weather returns. Severe thunderstorms are possible across Northern and Central Alberta this afternoon, and into Saskatchewan later this evening. Central Alberta, in particular, could see some especially strong storms today, complete with the risk of an isolated tornado.

There have already been some scatted showers in Northern Alberta this morning, mostly in the northwest. Further development of thunderstorms is likely across the region and into Northern Saskatchewan this afternoon. These storms are expected to continue through the evening and into the early overnight hours before tapering off. It’s possible that some of these scattered storms could become severe throughout the day, with the potential for strong wind gusts up to 100km/h, toonie-sized hail, and heavy downpours.

The main area of concern for today, however, is in Central Alberta. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate in this region in the early to mid afternoon, which will gradually track eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening and overnight.

These storms likely strengthen into strong supercell thunderstorms by the late afternoon, which brings a strong risk to an area from Olds to Drayton Valley and east towards Wainright. There is the threat of hail larger than golf balls, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, heavy rain, and even the risk of an isolated tornado. These storms could be a major issue for motorists, especially between Red Deer and Edmonton, as they are expected to cross the QE2 during the evening commute.

The severe weather threat should decrease during the late evening and overnight hours, with the storms weakening as they continue along an eastward trajectory towards Saskatchewan. There is still the chance, however, that an isolated storm could remain severe during this time frame, which could still have the potential to produce large hail and strong wind gusts. The tornado risk, however, will decrease greatly.

July 23, 2025

⛈️ Strong Severe Thunderstorm & Tornado Risk For Ontario on Thursday Evening

July 23, 2025/ Adam Skinner

The summertime heat we’ve been experiencing is about to fuel some potentially strong thunderstorms in Ontario on Thursday, July 24, 2025. The main risk is in the evening and overnight hours but some areas could see strong storms in the afternoon as well, especially in Northeastern Ontario.

Some of these storms, particularly from the Bruce Peninsula and east towards Muskoka, Algonquin and potentially through parts of eastern Ontario may see a strong damaging wind storm (MCS), which is showing up on several high-resolution models. The timing looks to be late afternoon into the evening and overnight as it moves east towards Quebec.

Across other parts of Ontario, there is a risk for a cluster or line of storms from as far south as Essex County, all the way up to northeastern Ontario in the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Some models suggest it could arrive in the late afternoon but quite a few are suggesting the storms won’t arrive for most of us until the evening or overnight, especially in the east.

Damaging wind gusts, potentially exceeding 100km/h+, large hail, torrential rainfall with isolated flooding and frequent lightning are the main risks. We’re also seeing the potential for a few isolated tornadoes with this system, especially in orange (3) zone on the forecast map.

STAY AHEAD OF THE STORM

Join us on YouTube as we track any storms that develop on Thursday. Make sure to hit the free Subscribe button and the notification bell icon to get notified when we go live!

In the image above, Environment Canada has issued their forecast for Thursday, highlighting all of the southwestern, central, golden horseshoe and eastern Ontario regions in a 2/4 “Moderate weather threat”.

Below is a regional breakdown based on Environment Canada’s forecast details:

📍 Location A: Portions of Southern & Northeastern Ontario

Hazards: 🌬️ Wind, 🌨️ Hail, 🌧️ Rain, 🌪️ Tornado, ⛈️ Thunderstorms
Timing: Afternoon and evening

Impacts:

🪁 Loose objects may be tossed
🏚️ Damage to weak buildings
🌳 Broken tree branches and downed trees
🌿 Possible damage to plants and crops
🌊 Flash flooding and pooling on roads
⚡ Power outages likely

Rainfall: Up to 50 mm

Confidence: Moderate
Impact: Moderate

Details:
Storms may bring wind gusts up to 100 km/h, rainfall up to 50 mm, hail up to 2 cm, and the potential for isolated tornadoes. Activity begins in the northwest and tracks southeastward through the day.

📍 Location B: Portions of Southwestern & Eastern Ontario + Greater Golden Horseshoe

Hazards: 🌬️ Wind, 🌧️ Rain, ⛈️ Thunderstorms
Timing: Late afternoon and evening

Impacts:

🌳 Broken tree branches and downed trees
🌊 Flash flooding and pooling on roads
⚡ Possible power outages

Rainfall: Up to 50 mm

Confidence: Moderate
Impact: Moderate

Details:
Scattered thunderstorms may produce wind gusts up to 90 km/h and locally heavy rainfall.

More details ASAP about this storm risk. Stay safe on Thursday, folks!

And a big thanks to the sponsor of this forecast; Kempenfest in Barrie! For those who don’t know, our own Adam Skinner will be performing at Kempenfest this year with his new rock band ‘Face The Lion’! They’ll be opening for the one and only Colin James on Saturday, August 2nd!

Here’s some more details on Kempenfest:

”Kempenfest presented by TD, is Barrie Ontario’s signature festival event, celebrating 53 years Aug 1-4, 2025, located across two-kilometres of Barrie’s beautiful waterfront. The annual event is one of Ontario’s largest waterfront festivals, featuring 300 arts & crafts vendors, a midway, community village, antiques, face painters, buskers, great food, a poutine village, and two stages of live music! Evening concert headliners include Shawn Desman, Colin James, The Washboard Union, and The Practically Hip, with many more!”

We hope to see you there!

July 19, 2025

Severe Storms Possible in Alberta & Saskatchewan Saturday with Tornado and Funnel Cloud Risk

July 19, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The cluster of severe thunderstorms that crossed through Alberta yesterday evening and overnight has been weakening as they have continued to track through Southern and Central Saskatchewan this morning. On the backside of these storms, there should be sufficient clearing in order for more severe thunderstorms to develop throughout Central and Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Thunderstorm development should begin in the early to mid-afternoon, with scattered storms in Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan. The majority of these storms in Alberta will possibly become severe, but they aren’t expected to be too strong as they track eastward throughout the afternoon. These storms could bring some strong gusts, small hail, and heavy rain to areas in their path today.

Storms that could form to the north of Medicine Hat, however, and into Saskatchewan are expected to be the stronger, with the possibility to produce damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h and hail as large as Timbits, along with heavy downpours.

The possibility of strong storms developing to the west of Swift Current early this afternoon is worth noting. These particular storms could strengthen into a severe line that extends southward to the US border through the afternoon.

There is also the risk of a tornado or two forming during the early hours of these storms’ lives, in the late afternoon and the early evening, in an area that includes Shaunavon, Swift Current, Assiniboia and just into Moose Jaw. This risk does diminish as the line pushes eastward, with the storms expected to bring a strong wind and hail threat into Regina and to the east throughout the evening hours.

Overall, the intensity of storms will be dependent on how much daytime heating can occur and how much moisture can be funnelled northward following this morning’s active weather.

***The dashed line outlines the funnel cloud risk from environment Canada***

Back in Alberta, more storms could kick off in the Foothills a bit later in the afternoon. These storms will likely be more organized than the scattered pop-up storms expected earlier in the afternoon. There is a chance of them becoming severe in the evening as they track eastward through Calgary and areas to the south, with the possibility of producing strong wind gusts, toonie-sized hail, and heavy rain which could result in more localized flooding.

There is also the possibility that funnel clouds could develop today southeast of Edmonton, from Camrose to Oyen. It’s important to remember that funnel clouds have the potential to touch down as weak landspout tornadoes so be alert if you’re in this area today.

July 18, 2025

Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Risk Throughout Central & Southern Alberta, Threat of a Tornado South of Calgary

July 18, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

A widespread risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for today across Central and Southern Alberta, with the threat of a tornado in parts of Southern Alberta.

Thunderstorm activity will kick off in the early to mid-afternoon through a large stretch of the Foothills, particularly in Central Alberta. These will be slow-moving storms that are expected to develop from the Calgary area to Grande Prairie and could have the potential to bring golf ball-sized hail and strong wind gusts to the region. These storms are also expected to have plenty of precipitation associated with them, which could result in some localized flooding before the storms taper off in the late evening.

There is the chance for storms to also pop up around Calgary and to the south at the same time, but these storms should be slightly weaker and could be short-lived. This will then be followed by some weak storms that will cross into the area from British Columbia in the late afternoon and early evening.

Storms in this second wave are expected to rapidly intensify into supercell thunderstorms as they track east of the Rockies, with the potential to hit the area with damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and hail larger than golf balls. There is also the risk of a tornado or two developing to the south and southeast of Calgary, in an area that includes High River, Claresholm, Lethbridge, and Taber.

The storms in Southern Alberta will track much further east than those expected in Central Alberta earlier in the day. They will likely continue moving eastward towards Saskatchewan overnight, but are expected to lose some intensity during that time period.

July 17, 2025

Severe Thunderstorms Possible in Southern Alberta & Southwestern Saskatchewan Thursday, Along with Risk of Funnel Clouds

July 17, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Despite some cooler temperatures still sticking around, severe thunderstorms are likely today in Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Thunderstorms have already been making their way through parts of Southern Alberta this morning and for the most part, they’ve been fairly weak. As we progress into the afternoon, some of these storms could strengthen to severe levels as they continue tracking east-southeastward. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected to occur closer to the US border through the afternoon, which will also probably become severe. The thunderstorms will track into Southwestern Saskatchewan later in the afternoon and will continue until the late evening hours, at which time they will move south of the border.

The area with the greatest risk of severe weather today will be in deep Southeastern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, as shown in yellow on the forecast map. In this region, storms could produce strong wind gusts and Timbit-sized hail. These threats also also possible throughout the rest of Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, shown in green, but the risk is slightly lower.

There is also the chance for funnel clouds to form today to the north of where the severe thunderstorms are expected. This will be in the area from Calgary and Olds, eastward through Drumheller and Hanna, and just crossing into Saskatchewan to include the Leader area. If you’re in this region, it’s important to remember that funnel clouds can possibly touch down as weak landspout tornadoes.

July 17, 2025

Ottawa Area, Eastern Ontario in Bullseye for Thursday’s Widespread Severe Storm & Tornado Risk; Isolated AM Risk for Southwestern Ontario & GTHA

July 17, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The oppressive heat that has been locked across Southern Ontario the past week is on the way out. But first that relief will come in the form of a cold front that is likely to clash with the hot air to create some strong thunderstorms ahead of the front.

Some of these storms, particularly in Eastern Ontario during the afternoon on Thursday could reach severe levels with strong wind gusts being the main threat. One or two tornadoes are also possible with the strongest environment being along a corridor from Tweed to Ottawa.

With the cold front already on our doorstep as of early Thursday morning, it is expected to gradually slide across Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe through the overnight and pre-dawn hours on Thursday.

While this isn’t ideal timing for storm development, we can’t rule out some nocturnal development. And if these developments occur, the environment could certainly support a few marginally severe storms primarily with strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

The tornado risk isn’t zero, but it’s also not particularly strong due to the timing of the overnight storms. But the environment could support a brief spin-up through Southwestern Ontario into the GTA, but it’s very questionable.

STAY AHEAD OF THE STORM

Join us on YouTube as we track any storms that develop throughout the day on Thursday

For Deep Southwestern Ontario, we are looking at the bulk of the risk between midnight and 6am with non-severe storms potentially continuing until 9am. These storms could bring isolated damaging wind gusts, nickel-sized hail and 50-100mm of rain.

In Southwestern Ontario, the risk follows a similar overnight pattern as Deep Southwest, though it’s slightly more delayed. The environment will still support some isolated strong wind gusts and localized flooding, but again, the timing works against widespread severe development. The threat of large hail and a brief tornado is low, but not zero. The risk should ease by the time we hit the late morning hours.

For the Golden Horseshoe, storms are expected to roll through in the mid-to-late morning hours, primarily between 6:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. Similar to the regions farther west, the overnight timing limits storm strength, but a few marginally severe cells are possible.

Gusty winds, heavy downpours and nickel-sized hail are the main concerns. The tornado risk is quite low, though not completely off the table. Things should quiet down quickly as we head into the early afternoon

In Central Ontario, storms may get going a bit earlier compared to the GTA, potentially arriving in the pre-dawn hours and continuing through the morning.

The main threat here also leans toward damaging wind gusts and flooding, especially if storms repeatedly track over the same areas. Nickel-sized hail is possible, and while the tornado risk is low, it’s not zero. Timing should help reduce the severity, but there’s still a window for a few stronger cells.

Eastern Ontario is where the severe threat becomes much more notable. As the front progresses into a more unstable environment in the afternoon, the potential for strong storms ramps up.

Damaging wind gusts appear to be the most likely hazard, but one or two tornadoes are also possible, particularly along a corridor from Tweed to Ottawa, where models show the strongest instability and tornado environment overlapping.

Hail around quarter-size and localized flooding are also concerns with any stronger storms that develop.

Southeastern Ontario will also be in the bullseye for strong to severe storms, particularly from late afternoon into the early evening. Kingston through Brockville and into Cornwall sits right along the corridor of stronger wind potential.

Wind gusts may reach damaging levels, with a few storms capable of producing quarter-sized hail. Flooding is also possible in areas that get hit by repeated rounds.

While the tornado risk isn’t as pronounced as the Ottawa Valley, it’s still something we’ll be watching closely.

For our updated map, it’s largely unchanged from our preliminary forecast. The main changes we made was shrinking the ‘widespread’ risk zone to cover Eastern Ontario only. The latest data suggests that the Niagara region is less likely to see storms so the support for a widespread risk is no longer there.

We have also extended the isolated risk into the rest of Southwestern Ontario to cover the very questionable severe risk during the overnight and early morning hours.

For the tornado risk, while there is a non-zero risk for a tornado across all parts of the severe risk, we have focused it on the Ottawa Valley. This is where the latest model data continues to show the strongest tornado risk. Mainly during the mid to late afternoon hours.

There is also a more heightened tornado risk along the London to Hamilton corridor during the morning hours. While the risk isn’t super strong, this is where we believe a tornado is most likely to occur if one does occur in the morning.

The storm risk should taper off around the dinner hour as storms move out into Quebec and Upstate New York.

July 16, 2025

Heat Wave Ends With a Bang: Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Threat for Southern Ontario on Thursday

July 16, 2025/ Brennen Perry

As Southern Ontario continues to deal with a prolonged heat wave, there is some relief on the way. A cold front is expected to sweep through the region on Thursday, bringing temperatures back down to near-seasonal levels. But unfortunately, that relief won’t come quietly.

We’re closely watching Thursday for the potential of severe weather across much of Southern Ontario.

Thunderstorms are expected to fire up along the cold front as it moves through the province, with the potential for widespread severe storms especially across Eastern Ontario, Central Ontario and possibly parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) during the morning and afternoon.

These storms may pack a punch, bringing strong wind gusts, large hail, heavy rain and possibly even an isolated tornado. The best chance for any rotating storms (and tornadoes) will be in Eastern Ontario later in the day when the environment becomes more favourable for storm organization.

With more high-resolution models coming into range, we’re getting a better handle on how things may play out. Based on this data, we’ve put together a preliminary forecast map showing where the greatest risk for severe weather currently appears to be.

That said, this event is still just under 48 hours away, and plenty could still change. The timing, placement and severity of storms may shift, so expect updates over the next couple of days. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the data and will continue to post updates as things evolve.

**ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE in °C** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

At this point, it looks like the cold front will reach the western parts of Southern Ontario sometime during the morning hours. The strongest environment for severe weather will be just ahead of the front. But because of the early timing, the threat for severe storms in Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Huron shoreline looks more limited.

Still, the setup could be just strong enough to trigger a few marginally severe storms by late morning or early afternoon as activity moves into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

As the cold front continues eastward into the afternoon, this is when we expect storm activity to really ramp up. With daytime heating providing an extra energy boost, we’re watching the Peterborough to Bancroft corridor around noon, with storms potentially reaching Kingston and the Ottawa Valley by early to mid-afternoon.

Storms are expected to move out of Ontario and cross into New York and Quebec around the dinner hour. However, this is subject to change depending on the timing of the cold front.

Given the setup, we’ve gone with a ‘widespread’ (level 2 out of 5) severe risk for much of Eastern Ontario. This includes the potential for several severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall.

We’ve also extended this risk into parts of the Niagara region where some models are hinting at rapid storm development during the early afternoon before storms cross the border.

The rest of Southern Ontario, excluding Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron shoreline, falls under an ‘isolated’ (level 1 out of 5) severe risk. Most storms in these areas will likely stay below severe limits, but a few could briefly become marginally severe during the morning or early afternoon.

Currently, Deep Southwestern Ontario and Northeastern Ontario are not in the risk zone for severe weather on Thursday. That’s due to the early arrival of the cold front which will likely move through these areas before storms have a chance to fully develop. That could change should the cold front arrive later in the day when the environment is strongest.

**ESTIMATED Morning LOW in °C** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop significantly Thursday night into Friday morning. Some higher elevation areas in Central Ontario could wake up to morning lows in the upper single digits!

Most of Southern Ontario will see lows in the low to mid teens, which will be a welcome change after several nights of muggy 20°C+ lows.

**ESTIMATED DAYTIME HIGH in °C** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Daytime highs on Friday will also cool back to near-seasonal values, with most of the region seeing mid-20s. But enjoy it while it lasts. A gradual warm-up is expected over the weekend with temperatures climbing back into the upper 20s and even low 30s by early next week.

July 09, 2025

Strong Severe Storms Possible in Central Alberta & Saskatchewan, Uncertainty Further East and into Manitoba

July 09, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

There are two areas across the Prairies where there is the risk of severe thunderstorms today. The difference between these two areas, however, is the likelihood of storm development, with storms in Central Alberta and Saskatchewan looking much more likely to occur than those in Eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba.

A cold front that will track through Alberta and Saskatchewan today is expected to begin triggering thunderstorm development early this afternoon in West Central Alberta. These storms should intensify into a line of strong severe thunderstorms as they approach the QE2 corridor, particularly around Red Deer.

This line of storms should maintain its strength for several hours, travelling eastward across Alberta through the afternoon. The storms will then cross into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon/early evening and continue their eastward trajectory, gradually weakening later into the evening and overnight.

Borderline destructive wind gusts of up to 120km/h are possible from Red Deer eastward towards Saskatoon as the line of severe thunderstorms move through the region. Furthermore, hail as large as golf balls and localized flooding are concerns, along with the possibility of one or two embedded tornadoes.

Additional scattered thunderstorms could pop up behind the main line in both Alberta and Saskatchewan throughout the day and continuing overnight, but these storms are expected to be weaker. For those attending the Stampede today, there is the chance for an isolated storm, but the greatest risk for severe weather will remain to the north.

Meanwhile, there is also the risk of severe thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan, along the Manitoba border, and eastward into Manitoba as the cold front makes its way into this area. In particular, parts of Southern Manitoba could be the main target of these storms.

***Modelled CAPE (Convective available potential energy) as of 5PM CT highlighting southwestern Manitoba as the area with the most energy***

All the ingredients for severe thunderstorms are expected to be in place today in this area, with heat and energy funnelling northward throughout the day ahead of the arrival of the front. Despite this, a strong cap will also be in place, so whether or not storms actually form remains questionable. Short-term weather models are not even showing any thunderstorms developing in this area, further cementing the uncertainty here.

IF thunderstorms end up breaking through the cap, it’s not expected to occur until the evening, but the storms could become quite strong. Large hail will be the main concern with these potential storms, with golf ball-sized or larger appearing possible. Strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall, possibly leading to localized flooding, could also be associated with storms that develop. This situation will certainly bear monitoring throughout the day.

It’s also worth noting that temperatures across the Prairies, with the exception of most of Southern Manitoba, can expect to see more comfortable temperatures tomorrow following the passage of the cold front today.

July 03, 2025

Questionable Daytime Storms Followed By More Organized Nocturnal Threat in Saskatchewan & Manitoba Thursday

July 03, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The cold front which triggered severe weather across Alberta and into Western Saskatchewan yesterday will continue its track eastward today, bringing the risk of severe weather into Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Similar to yesterday, storm development is questionable throughout the afternoon and evening, with any storms that do develop likely to become severe. There is, however, a much stronger nocturnal risk in place for some areas.

The possibility of isolated thunderstorm development will begin in the mid-afternoon and continue through the evening, starting in Saskatchewan and extending eastward into Manitoba with the gradual movement of the cold front. Weather models disagree with where and when these storms might occur and there is a distinct lack of organization with the storms that do show on the models.

If thunderstorms end up developing during this time, the environment will lead them to likely become severe. These storms could end up being capable of producing hail as large as ping pong balls and strong wind gusts up to 100km/h. There is a small chance that one or two of these storms could produce a tornado, with the risk of this increasing for more southern storms.

The greatest severe thunderstorm threat arrives after midnight, as a large cluster of storms will likely move into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba from south of the border. These storms are expected to be stronger than the ones that could develop during the day and they will track across Southern Manitoba through the early morning hours and eventually exiting into Ontario.

The nocturnal thunderstorms that move through this region may produce up to golf ball-sized hail and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. There will be a broad region of rain surrounding these thunderstorms and this could lead to some localized flooding as the storms track eastward.

***Modelled temperature anomaly for Thurday shows Temperatures 5-10+°C above seasonal across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, courtesy of weatherbell.***

We have also found ourselves in a bit of a heat wave across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba for the next couple of days. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low and mid 30s across parts of the region today and tomorrow, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year. With the humidity, it could feel closer to 40°C in some areas.

While more comfortable temperatures move into Saskatchewan on Friday and then Manitoba on Saturday, and this not being nearly as hot as it can get in the summer months, it’s important to be mindful of dealing with the bit of heat while it’s here.

If you spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

Your body loses electrolytes from sweating, so sports drinks that are high in electrolytes can help replenish what has been lost. Salty snacks are also helpful when it comes to regaining lost electrolytes.

Other tips for staying cool include wearing lightweight, light-coloured clothing and limiting direct sun exposure, if possible. Many municipalities offer public spaces with air conditioning where residents can go to cool off, especially those without central air in their homes/apartments.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.

July 02, 2025

Boom or Bust: Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Might Develop Across Alberta & Saskatchewan Wednesday as the Heat Breaks

July 02, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

There is a widespread threat of active weather across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan on Wednesday. This is a result of a cold front that will sweep through the region, breaking the heat and likely triggering some strong severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. However, It’s looking like a ‘Boom or Bust’ sort of day in which thunderstorms could remain capped across most of the region, but if storms do develop, they could become quite strong.

The greatest threat for severe weather will be in parts of Northern Alberta, stretching northeastward from Edson through Whitecourt and beyond the Slave Lake area, highlighted in orange on our forecast map. The environment in this area will be able to support supercell thunderstorms that could develop in the Northern Foothills beginning early this afternoon, around 12-2pm.

The storms in this area could be capable of producing very large hail, as big as standard billiards balls, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. They are expected to travel northeastward across Alberta throughout the day and into Saskatchewan overnight. These will be fast moving storms so localized flooding from heavy rain is not a concern, but it is possible that we could see a tornado or two form in this region.

Additional development of slightly weaker, but still severe, thunderstorms could extend southward towards Calgary and through Southern Alberta beginning in the early afternoon. The likelihood storms initiating, however, decreases the further south you go. If storms do end up forming through this area, they are expected to quickly track east-northeastward across Alberta and into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon.

There is also the chance that the storms could skip over Southern Alberta completely, as the cold front pushes through, and instead develop in Southwestern Saskatchewan in the late afternoon and early evening. If these storms end up developing in either province, they are expected to pose more of a wind risk than a large hail risk. Given the environment that the storms could form in, damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h are possible and a lack of moisture should limit hail to the size of quarters and smaller.

***Modelled temperature anomaly for wednesday shows Temperatures 5-10°C above seasonal, courtesy of weatherbell.***

On top of the severe thunderstorm threat, today will also be the warmest day of the minor heat wave in Central and Southern Alberta. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 30s across most of Southern Alberta, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year.

It’s best to limit your time outside in this heat, especially since heat exhaustion can set in fairly quickly if you’re not careful.

If you do spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.

July 01, 2025

Risk of Timbit-Sized Hail from Severe Thunderstorms Across Parts of Alberta for Canada Day

July 01, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

There could be some natural fireworks in parts of Alberta today for Canada Day!

Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the Foothills early this afternoon, around 12-2pm, which are expected to travel northeastward across the region throughout the afternoon and evening. However, some storms could end up following a more eastward trajectory through the day as they interact with the ridge which has been drawing some heat into Southern and Central Alberta.

Severe storms will possibly develop into multicellular clusters that could impact a wide area, but some isolated supercells are also probable. Large hail is the greatest risk from today’s storms, up to the size of Timbits or possibly larger, along with some strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms are expected to weaken in the late evening hours, with a majority of storms dissipating by midnight.

June 28, 2025

More Severe Thunderstorms Likely Across Central & Southern Manitoba Saturday

June 28, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

After some severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings yesterday, we’re looking a similar setup as yesterday. A trough will continue moving through the province and it is expected to trigger more severe thunderstorms today.

Severe thunderstorms have already begun to move through the Interlake Region this morning, which are expected to continue to strengthen as they travel eastward. The greatest severe thunderstorm threat, however, looks to start in the early to mid afternoon and continue into tonight.

The afternoon storms could develop across a large swath of Central and Southern Manitoba. However, there has been disagreement between weather models regarding where exactly these storms could occur and how strong they might become.

Some models are showing that storms could begin developing in the early afternoon through the Parkland Region and southward, into parts of Westman and to the west of the Red River Valley. The timing of the storm initiation in the south is also a bit uncertain, with models suggesting it could occur sometime between 1pm and 5pm. There is also the likelihood of additional storms crossing into the Parkland area from Saskatchewan in the early evening.

***Simulated Radar from the NAM model showing the possible line of thunderstorms moving through the Red River Valley at 5PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

The storms that manage to form are expected to rapidly gain strength as they chart a course eastward across the province. They are likely to become supercells and could end up merging into a large line of severe thunderstorms through the afternoon.

These intense thunderstorms will have the potential to produce golf ball or larger hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and possibly a tornado. The risk of a tornado is less than yesterday, but the possibility can not be completely ruled out. These are expected to be moisture-laden and slow-moving thunderstorms, so localized flooding is definitely a concern as well.

Thunderstorm activity will gradually dissipate through the late evening hours as they approach and cross into Ontario. The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to conclude across Manitoba by midnight.

June 27, 2025

Severe Weather Threat Extends Across the Prairies Friday with Strong Risk and Tornadoes Possible in Parts of Saskatchewan & Manitoba

June 27, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

It’s shaping up to be an active day across the Prairies today, with severe thunderstorms possible across all three provinces. In fact, today brings the strongest severe weather risk we’ve seen all week.

Most of the thunderstorms expected across the region will likely remain marginally severe, stretching from the Foothills in Alberta to the Manitoba-Ontario border. However, the bullseye for the most intense storms is over Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba.

Thunderstorms are expected to kick off in parts of the Southern Foothills early this afternoon. These storms will track east-northeastward, and additional development is likely through the mid-afternoon along a broad arc stretching eastward across Central Saskatchewan and into Central Manitoba later in the evening.

These widespread storms should persist into the night across the Prairies, especially the further east you go. Some of these storms could become severe and produce nickel-sized hail, along with strong wind gusts. There is also a risk of localized flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving or training thunderstorms.

In Alberta, conditions could be favourable for funnel clouds to form. While most of these remain harmless, there is a low chance that one or two could touch down briefly as a weak landspout tornado.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing the arc of thunderstorms at 6pm MT/CST & 7PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

The greatest threat for severe weather today, however, will be to the south of the main batch of storms in Sakatchewan and Manitoba. The model image above shows these additional storms having already developed in the evening. Thunderstorm development in this more volatile area is expected to begin slightly earlier, around 3-5pm. Storms in this region will track eastward, while the southern edge of the cluster in Saskatchewan will likely expand south-southwestward toward the US border.

This area is forecast to encounter a highly supportive environment for severe storms in Southeastern Saskatchewan, with the possibility of storms to rapidly develop into supercell thunderstorms. Some isolated supercells could also initiate within this environment, along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba and into Southwestern Manitoba.

The highest risk area stretches from Carlyle, SK eastward through Brandon, MB, and north from the US border to the Foxwarren radar site. Storms moving through this area could become quite strong, with the potential to produce golf ball or larger hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and possibly one or two tornadoes. Intense rainfall is also likely, making localized flooding a concern in this region as well.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing thunderstorms in North Dakota, as well as in Saskatchewan & Manitoba at 9pm CST & 10PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

There are a couple of factors that might limit storm strength in this region. Lingering morning rain and cloud cover could reduce daytime heating, which would decrease the available energy for storm development. Additionally, an area of low-pressure that will track through North Dakota today may pull some of that energy south of the border, weakening the storms on the Canadian side.

Regardless of how strong the storms become, they are expected to track eastward throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. By the time they reach the Red River Valley after midnight, the storms should be quite weak and likely dissipate entirely not too long after.

June 27, 2025

Southern Ontario Faces Widespread Severe Threat Including Damaging Wind Gusts, Toonie-Sized Hail & Tornado Risk on Friday

June 27, 2025/ Brennen Perry

After Southern Ontario experienced some severe weather last weekend along with our first significant heat wave of the season, things have quieted down over the past few days. Milder air brought temperatures back to seasonal values on Wednesday and Thursday.

However, it looks like we’re about to heat up again heading into the weekend. The good news is, it won’t be anywhere near the oppressive heat we saw earlier this week.

In addition to the return of summer warmth, there’s a growing risk of widespread severe storms on Friday. This threat covers much of Southwestern Ontario and stretches into parts of Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to fire up over Lake Huron and move into a very unstable environment during the afternoon, leading to the possibility of all severe weather hazards. This includes damaging wind gusts, large hail and potentially even one or two tornadoes.

As these storms push eastward into the evening hours, there’s a chance they could merge into one larger cluster of storms. This line may reach portions of the Greater Toronto Area and bring a continued threat of damaging winds, small hail and localized flash flooding.

While the heat has pulled back across much of Southern Ontario over the past few days (except for Deep Southwestern Ontario), we’re expecting it to return on Friday. Areas south of Lake Simcoe will likely see daytime highs climb back into the upper 20s and even low to mid-30s across parts of Southwestern Ontario.

This won’t be the same level of heat we saw earlier in the week, but it will be a noticeable jump compared to the cooler air on Thursday that kept many places under 20°C for most of the day.

Once you factor in the humidity, some parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario could be feeling close to the upper 30s again.

As we often see on days with elevated storm risk, the morning could bring some scattered showers or thunderstorms near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These are not expected to be severe, but they will play an important role in shaping the setup for later in the day.

If the morning rain and storms linger longer than expected, they could limit afternoon storm development by preventing the atmosphere from fully recovering. This could reduce the strength or delay the timing of any severe storms into the evening when conditions aren’t quite as favourable.

There’s also some disagreement in the forecast models about how far south this morning precipitation might extend, especially in the zone where the severe risk is currently expected to be the highest.

If the atmosphere is able to recover in time, we could see isolated storms begin to fire over Lake Huron as early as mid-afternoon (2 to 4 PM), then track inland toward Grey, Bruce and Huron counties.

There’s still some uncertainty on the exact placement of this development. Storms could form anywhere along a corridor stretching from Manitoulin Island all the way down to Sarnia.

**ESTIMATED ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As these cells develop over Lake Huron, they’ll be moving into a rapidly strengthening environment. Current model data suggests the highest tornado potential may be from Goderich to Owen Sound around 3-5 PM.

This region could see the greatest risk for severe weather during the mid to late afternoon hours. Storms that remain isolated early on may evolve into supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and a tornado or two.

While this particular setup leans more toward Southwestern Ontario, other models point to a similarly strong environment farther northeast into Central Ontario. This includes areas around Lake Simcoe, as well as parts of Simcoe County, Muskoka and the Kawartha Lakes.

As the storms push eastward during the late afternoon, current data suggests they may merge into one larger cluster of storms by the time they reach Central Ontario and then move into the Greater Toronto Area during the early evening.

At that point, the tornado threat will decrease, but the risk of damaging winds will become the dominant threat. This is typical when storms evolve into more linear systems.

Flash flooding could also become a major concern, especially in urban areas like the GTA, which are more prone to poor drainage. Some forecast models even suggest that this line could stall or ‘train’ over the same area, which would bring the potential for very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time.

The overall severe threat should begin to wind down between 9 and 10 PM as the sun sets and daytime heating fades. That said, the storm cluster may continue eastward into the Niagara Region and parts of Eastern Ontario overnight, though it’s expected to be non-severe by then.

As mentioned, the highest severe threat will likely be in the mid to late afternoon over Southwestern Ontario, especially as storms come ashore from Lake Huron.

These storms could bring damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of toonies and possibly one or two tornadoes. The tornado risk would be greatest shortly after the storms reach land and should taper off farther inland.

Deep Southwestern Ontario might also see a few isolated storms develop during the afternoon, though the environment doesn’t look quite as favourable compared to areas farther north.

Still, any storms that do form here could bring isolated damaging wind gusts, quarter-sized hail and even a low-end tornado risk that can’t be ruled out.

As the storms move into Central Ontario later in the day, the primary risk will transition to damaging winds. The threat of hail and tornadoes will decrease, but a few storms could still produce quarter-sized hail and, again, an isolated tornado remains possible.

There’s also the potential for some isolated development around Georgian Bay and Lake Simcoe in the afternoon. If that happens, it could boost the tornado and hail risk across that region.

By the time the line of storms reaches the Golden Horseshoe, it will likely be starting to weaken. However, it could still bring the potential for isolated wind damage, nickel-sized hail and maybe a brief tornado, though that risk becomes increasingly unlikely at that point.

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