***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

It’s shaping up to be an active day across the Prairies today, with severe thunderstorms possible across all three provinces. In fact, today brings the strongest severe weather risk we’ve seen all week.

Most of the thunderstorms expected across the region will likely remain marginally severe, stretching from the Foothills in Alberta to the Manitoba-Ontario border. However, the bullseye for the most intense storms is over Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba.

Thunderstorms are expected to kick off in parts of the Southern Foothills early this afternoon. These storms will track east-northeastward, and additional development is likely through the mid-afternoon along a broad arc stretching eastward across Central Saskatchewan and into Central Manitoba later in the evening.

These widespread storms should persist into the night across the Prairies, especially the further east you go. Some of these storms could become severe and produce nickel-sized hail, along with strong wind gusts. There is also a risk of localized flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving or training thunderstorms.

In Alberta, conditions could be favourable for funnel clouds to form. While most of these remain harmless, there is a low chance that one or two could touch down briefly as a weak landspout tornado.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing the arc of thunderstorms at 6pm MT/CST & 7PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

The greatest threat for severe weather today, however, will be to the south of the main batch of storms in Sakatchewan and Manitoba. The model image above shows these additional storms having already developed in the evening. Thunderstorm development in this more volatile area is expected to begin slightly earlier, around 3-5pm. Storms in this region will track eastward, while the southern edge of the cluster in Saskatchewan will likely expand south-southwestward toward the US border.

This area is forecast to encounter a highly supportive environment for severe storms in Southeastern Saskatchewan, with the possibility of storms to rapidly develop into supercell thunderstorms. Some isolated supercells could also initiate within this environment, along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba and into Southwestern Manitoba.

The highest risk area stretches from Carlyle, SK eastward through Brandon, MB, and north from the US border to the Foxwarren radar site. Storms moving through this area could become quite strong, with the potential to produce golf ball or larger hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and possibly one or two tornadoes. Intense rainfall is also likely, making localized flooding a concern in this region as well.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing thunderstorms in North Dakota, as well as in Saskatchewan & Manitoba at 9pm CST & 10PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

There are a couple of factors that might limit storm strength in this region. Lingering morning rain and cloud cover could reduce daytime heating, which would decrease the available energy for storm development. Additionally, an area of low-pressure that will track through North Dakota today may pull some of that energy south of the border, weakening the storms on the Canadian side.

Regardless of how strong the storms become, they are expected to track eastward throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. By the time they reach the Red River Valley after midnight, the storms should be quite weak and likely dissipate entirely not too long after.