'Snow Day' Forecast: Extra Extra Long Weekend for Some Students in Southern Ontario With Bus Cancellations Possible on Monday

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The lake effect machine is set to roar back to life late Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of intense snow squalls to the snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While there is still some uncertainty regarding the strength and exact positioning of the heaviest squalls, conditions look severe enough to force school bus cancellations on Monday in the hardest-hit areas. After buses were already cancelled last Thursday and Friday, this could mark a third straight missed school day for some students.

Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall watches and warnings stretching from Muskoka through Simcoe County and into Grey-Bruce. Some of these alerts warn of 20 to 50 cm of snowfall by the end of Monday, with blowing snow reducing visibility and making for treacherous driving conditions. With weather this severe, it’s hard to imagine school buses being able to safely operate in these regions.

The highest probability of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula, where heavy squalls are virtually guaranteed. In Simcoe County, the likelihood of cancellations remains high, but it all depends on exactly where the squalls develop. Some areas could get buried in snow, while others may see far less accumulation, leading to possible discrepancies in cancellations across different school zones.

For Muskoka and the Kawartha Lakes, snow squall watches are in effect, but the most intense snowfall is expected to stay south and west. While these areas won’t be the primary targets of this lake effect activity, there’s still a chance of bus cancellations depending on how conditions unfold overnight.

Outside of the snowbelt regions, the rest of Southern Ontario should remain unaffected by lake-effect snow on Monday. No school bus cancellations are expected in areas beyond the direct impact zone.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Meaford)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West & North Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Kincardine & Hanover)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, South CKL & Haliburton)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • STWDSTS (Dufferin)

  • Durham District School Board (North)

  • Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.