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A shift in wind direction has caused snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to lift northward, pushing into the Bruce Peninsula and expanding into the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions.

This lake effect snow is expected to persist overnight and into Wednesday morning, with locally significant snowfall totals possible. In the most intense and persistent bands, some communities could see an additional 30 to 50 cm of snow by the time this activity winds down.

With snowfall of this magnitude falling over a relatively short period of time, travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Whiteout conditions, drifting snow and snow-covered rural routes will almost certainly keep school buses off the roads in the hardest hit areas on Wednesday.

At the same time, attention will also be on a separate system moving in from the west. An Alberta Clipper is expected to slide through Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday morning and continue throughout much of the day. While this system is not expected to produce widespread heavy snowfall, most areas should still pick up several centimetres.

In some locations, lake enhancement could boost totals closer to 10 to 15 cm. With snow falling during the school day rather than overnight, this raises the possibility of scattered bus cancellations outside of the core snow squall zones.

The highest confidence for a snow day remains in the areas directly impacted by the most intense lake effect activity. We have assigned a 90 percent chance to all regions of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board within Muskoka, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board.

In these areas, snow squalls are expected to remain relentless through Wednesday morning, making travel extremely hazardous. Impacts will be very localized, and once you move outside of these zones, probabilities drop quickly.

Immediately surrounding the core squall region, we have a 50 percent chance for East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. Conditions here will be highly dependent on how far north and east the strongest squalls extend overnight.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to the remainder of the Simcoe County District School Board, the rest of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board and North Bay under the Near North District School Board.

In these areas, cancellations are questionable but cannot be ruled out if lake effect snow pushes farther inland than expected.

For impacts tied to the Alberta Clipper, our highest confidence is focused on Southwestern Ontario. Snow will arrive earlier in the day here, increasing the likelihood of cancellations when snowfall is actively occurring rather than forecasted for later when the decision is made in the morning.

Confidence is also higher across parts of Eastern Ontario along the Lake Ontario shoreline, where snowfall warnings are already in effect, and these school boards tend to be more proactive when poor afternoon conditions are expected.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board outside the Bruce Peninsula, all regions covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, Prince Edward County, South Lennox and Addington, South Frontenac and Kingston within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. In these regions, we expect many boards to opt for cancellations as conditions deteriorate through the day.

Across Deep Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to all regions of the Lambton Kent District School Board and the Greater Essex County District School Board. Snow is expected to be falling during the decision-making window on Wednesday morning, and even without active warnings, snowfall combined with gusty winds could be enough to prompt cancellations.

This 50 percent zone also extends into Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, as well as Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, where snowfall warnings are in effect and could justify proactive cancellations even if snow begins later in the morning.

In Eastern Ontario, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. Here, outcomes will depend heavily on snowfall rates and timing, with some areas potentially seeing enough accumulation during the day to warrant cancellations.

Once you move into more urban school boards across Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe, confidence drops further. We have given a 25 percent chance to London and Elgin County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Georgina under the York Region District School Board and Durham Region.

While some of these areas are included in snowfall warnings, the forecasted amounts may fall just short of the higher thresholds typically required for cancellations. Elgin County, while not urban, is not currently under a snowfall warning, which is why it is lumped into the 25% chance.

Farther east, a 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas are not currently under active warnings, and snow is expected to arrive later in the morning. However, if school boards opt for system-wide cancellations rather than region-specific decisions, a few surprises remain possible.

For the more urban school boards across the Greater Toronto Area, the chance of a snow day remains low to very low. Snowfall amounts are not expected to reach the high threshold these regions typically require for cancellations.

In the Ottawa Valley, snowfall is expected to be limited and delayed until the middle of the afternoon. Because of this timing and lower expected totals, school bus cancellations are not anticipated in this region on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.