First Snowfall of 2021 Is on the Way

Valid: Saturday Jan 2, 2021 to Sunday Jan 3, 2021

Snow is coming

There is not going to be a lot of snow coming, but there will be enough in areas of the province that you will need your shovels and possibly snow blower to clear the driveway.

TIMING:

Snow will begin around noon on Saturday and will continue just past midnight into Sunday morning.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

The models are still not in total agreement, but what we can see at this time is the following accumulation amounts.  Higher accumulation areas will be the south side of the Province:

Prince County – 5-10 cm 

Queens County – 10-15 cm 

Kings County – (Morell to Georgetown to East Point) 5-10cm

Kings County - (Morell to Georgetown to Wood Islands) 15-20 cm  

WIND:  Winds will not be a large factor with this system, however there may be areas of the Province that will experience blowing and drifting snow.

Wind speeds will be at their highest Saturday evening but will only be 30-40kmh with gusts reaching 40-60kmh. 

TEMPERATURE:   Temperatures will be around -7 Saturday morning and gradually warming to near the freezing mark Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

With the increasing winds and snow, visibility will be diminished in areas. Please exercise caution on the roads throughout the evening hours of Saturday.

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas. 

Storm chip Probability:  10% 

PEIBW Team (Mike S, Harry S)

The New Year to Start With a Bang Across Southern Ontario With a Messy Winter Storm; 10–20cm of Snow and Prolonged Freezing Rain Possible From Friday Into Saturday

The parade of what feels like never-ending winter storms for Southern Ontario continues into 2021 with another wintery blast expected on Friday continuing into Saturday. And unlike previous storms, Eastern Ontario will not be spared from the winter weather as they are expected to be the ‘winner’ when it comes to snowfall from this event. Parts of Eastern Ontario could see as much as 20cm of snowfall accumulation by Saturday. Further south, we’re looking at a messy mix of precipitation including the threat of prolonged freezing rain through the Sarnia, London and Hamilton corridor.

Precipitation will start during the early afternoon hours on Friday as the moisture associated with the system pushes in from the south over Lake Erie. So areas like Windsor, Chatham-Kent, Sarnia, London and the Niagara region will see the first effects during the early to mid-afternoon hours. Current indications suggest it’ll start as a messy mix of wintery precipitation with rainfall along the Lake Erie shoreline and into the Windsor-Essex area. Away from Lake Erie, we’ll see a swath of heavy freezing rain develop from Sarnia along Hwy 401 into London and Hamilton. Heavy freezing rain will continue into the early evening hours with the worst impacts during the dinner hour.

As we head into the evening we’ll see the precipitation spread to the north and east reaching the rest of Southwestern Ontario into the GTA around 6-8 PM. We’d normally put together a timeline map for this system but it’s way too tricky as the precipitation type will be switching from snow, freezing rain, ice pellets and regular rain constantly throughout the evening hour. Expect more rain mixing in closer to the lakeshore especially during the overnight hours. Through the higher elevations and away from the lakeshore we’ll see more snow and ice pellets. Colder air will flow in early Saturday morning which will cause the mix to transition over to wet snow and flurries. A few hours of heavy snow through all of Southern Ontario is likely as the system moves out Saturday morning resulting in a couple of centimetres of fresh snowfall accumulation.

Moderate to heavy snowfall for Eastern Ontario will come in two waves beginning with late Friday evening continuing overnight. Another round of what will likely be the heaviest snowfall will move into Eastern Ontario during the morning on Saturday. Expect very poor driving conditions overnight and into Saturday morning with heavy snow causing near-zero visibility. The storm will come to an end during the early part of Saturday.

Due to the constantly changing precipitation type, it will also make pinning down the exact accumulation pretty hard. So keep in mind that the exact impact will vary even within a small distance. With that being said, for Extreme Southwestern Ontario from Windsor and along the Lake Erie shoreline we expect mostly rainfall with totals between 20-40mm although some freezing rain may mix in for a few hours early Friday afternoon.

As we’ve mentioned, a zone stretching from Sarnia through London and into Hamilton has the potential for several hours of freezing rain which might be quite intense at times. Potential ice build-up of between 4-12mm is possible before the switch over to rain later in the evening on Friday. While not shown on the legend, this area may also see 15-30mm of rainfall accumulation and trace to 5cm of snowfall early Saturday morning.

For the northern parts of Southwestern Ontario and into the GTA we expect a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain with some rain near the lakeshore. Snowfall totals around 5 to 10cm along with a few millimetres of ice build-up is possible. Ice pellets could reduce the potential snowfall accumulation in some areas.

For Eastern Ontario, the main precipitation type will be heavy snowfall with some ice pellets mixing in close to the Lake Ontario shoreline. Snowfall accumulation between 10-20cm is expected for much of Eastern Ontario from the Kawartha Lakes through Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley. Less moisture is expected into Central Ontario including east of Georgian Bay where between 5-10cm accumulation is likely. Northeastern Ontario will be mainly unaffected by this storm with less than 5cm of accumulation.

From the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish you a Happy New Year! Hopefully, 2021 will be much better for all of us.

Yet Another Messy System for Southern Ontario on Wednesday; Up to 10–20cm of Snow Through Central Ontario

It might have been a slow start to the winter season across Southern Ontario, but Mother Nature has been making up for it in the past week. This continues as we’re watching what will likely be the last system of 2020 for Southern Ontario on Wednesday. The track of this system will be quite similar to the one we saw a few days ago with heavy wet snow through Central Ontario and parts of Bruce-Grey counties while the rest of Southern Ontario sees mostly rain. We expect the heaviest snowfall accumulation will be found east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay thanks to some lake enhancement. Those areas could see between 12-20cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of Wednesday.

We’ll begin to see that first bands of precipitation work their way into the province predawn Wednesday from Michigan. Current data suggests it will likely begin as some light to moderate wet snow for most areas with some rain mixing in around Lake Ontario and Erie towards the later morning hours. Heavier pockets of snowfall are expected to affect the Grey-Bruce and Muskoka region into Northeastern Ontario due to some lake enhancement.

Some data suggests there might be the potential for an hour or two of light freezing rain Wednesday afternoon from Goderich through Orangeville/Barrie and eastward through Peterborough, but other models show this as mostly ice pellets or regular rain. Regardless, be prepared for some icy driving conditions in those areas. Like last time, the mixing line will be roughly near Lake Simcoe so areas to the north of Lake Simcoe will see the snow continuing into the evening hours while those to the south see a switch over to rain sometime through the afternoon. Precipitation will start to taper off late Wednesday around midnight although flurries may linger into Thursday particularly around Georgian Bay where some lake effect snow may develop.

As we’ve said, the accumulating snowfall will be mostly contained to those to the east of Georgian Bay and higher elevations east of Lake Huron. Locations like Owen Sound, Bruce Peninsula, Muskoka/Parry Sound and Elliot Lake can expect accumulation between 12-20cm from this system. A few localized amounts near 25cm is possible mainly to the east of Georgian Bay if we see squalls develop late Wednesday as the system moves out of the region. Other areas like Sudbury, North Bay, Bancroft, Northern Simcoe County and Kincardine/Goderich will see about 6-12cm of snowfall accumulation although they could see less due to ice pellets and freezing rain mixing in. The rest of Southern Ontario can expect less than 2cm of accumulation except for the Kitchener/Waterloo, Barrie and Ottawa area who could see as much as 6cm depending on how fast the snow to rain transition occurs.

We are also continuing to keep a close eye on that potential New Years’ winter storm for Southern Ontario starting sometime on Friday lasting into Saturday. The latest model guidance shows a fairly robust freezing rain threat for parts of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario. Ice accretion of between 5-10mm is not out of the question in the hardest-hit regions. It doesn’t appear to be particularly significant at this point but that could change depending on how the system develops. We’ll have more details in the coming days as we have more certainty in the potential impact on Southern Ontario.

Messy Start to the Last Week of 2020 for Southern Ontario; Up to 15cm of Snow and Freezing Rain Risk Late Sunday Into Monday

After a Christmas Day snowstorm and Boxing Day snow squalls brought over 50cm to parts of Southern Ontario, another system is on the horizon as we head into the final days of 2020. A quick burst of snow is expected to affect parts of Central, Southwestern and Northeastern Ontario beginning Sunday evening continuing overnight and into early Monday. There is also the risk of freezing rain overnight just to the north of the GTA through the Kitchener/Waterloo, Barrie, Kawartha Lakes and Bancroft area. Some light rain is expected for the rest of Southern Ontario where temperatures will be several degrees above the freezing mark.

The heaviest snowfall accumulation will be found to the northeast of Georgian Bay including Sudbury, North Bay and the northern part of Muskoka. Total accumulation in this area will range from 12-20cm and locally as much as 25cm (particularly around Sudbury and North Bay). Further to the south, the rest of Muskoka into the Bancroft area can expect between 6-12cm of snow with localized pockets near 15cm mainly just to the east of Georgian Bay where some models are picking up on lake enhancement potential.

There is also a zone through parts of Grey-Bruce counties that may see around 5-10cm of heavy wet snow although some data suggests it might be too warm and come down mainly as rain. Other areas including Orillia, Pembroke and Kitchener/Waterloo could see a few hours of wet snow accumulating to around 2-4cm before switching over to freezing rain or regular rain. The rest of Southern Ontario can expect trace amounts mainly during the day on Monday from scattered flurries as temperatures drop to near the freezing mark.

Between the snow and rain zone, there is also the threat of a few hours of freezing rain or drizzle from the Kitchener/Waterloo region through Simcoe County/Northern York Region and into Eastern Ontario including Peterborough, Bancroft and Renfrew. Freezing rain will develop late Sunday evening and continue overnight before switching over to snow later in the morning on Monday.

The rain will be fairly light and will be heavily dependent on if temperatures can stay below the freezing mark so not all areas within the forecasted zone will see it. Regardless, it could result in some icy road conditions along with a thin layer of ice build-up on untreated surfaces. You might want to leave some extra time in the morning to scrape off your car if you need to travel anywhere Monday morning.

Looking towards the end of 2020, we’re closely monitoring a potential storm that could affect Southern Ontario sometime between Thursday (Dec. 31) and Saturday (Jan. 2). There is a lot to still work out about the possible impacts of this storm and it very well could just be heavy rain, but some models show a fairly prolonged risk of freezing rain or even heavy accumulating snow. At this point, be prepared for a stormy start to the New Year and we’ll get you more details in the coming days as it becomes more clear.

More Snow for Southern Ontario on Boxing Day; Intense Snow Squalls Set to Blast Parts of the Snowbelts Around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay With Locally Over 50cm of Snow by Sunday

As a system brought widespread snowfall to parts of Southern Ontario on Christmas Eve, everyone except for Eastern Ontario woke up to a White Christmas. Accumulation across the region ranged from between 10-15cm and locally higher amounts near the lakes where some of the snowbelts have received close to 30cm! Mother Nature isn’t done with us just yet though and her wintery celebrations will continue into Boxing Day with some intense snow squalls developing off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Current data suggests these bands will pack quite the punch with hourly snowfall rates over 5cm. Should one of the squalls stall out over a particular area for several hours it will result in very rapid snowfall accumulation. Travel will become near impossible through the snowbelts with those intense snowfall rates and near-zero visibility.

We’re already seeing some lake effect snow at this hour as of 7 PM on Friday and that is expected to give way to some more focused and intense squalls around the midnight hour. The most prolific squall will come inland from Lake Huron somewhere between Kincardine and Sauble Beach stretching all the way into the Chesley and Dundalk area. This squall will feature very extreme snowfall rates up to 6-8cm along with whiteout conditions throughout the overnight hours. A few weaker bands south of this main band could affect Goderich, Listowel and even as far east as the Kitchener area. The lake effect activity off Lake Huron will persist into Saturday although that stronger band may weaken a bit after sunrise before restrengthening later in the day and shifting around a bit.

Lake effect snow and snow squalls are also expected off Georgian Bay throughout the overnight and into Saturday. This would mainly affect Simcoe County reaching into the Kawartha Lakes region at times. It doesn’t appear that the lake effect activity off Georgian Bay will be as strong as that monster squall off Lake Huron, but it will be quite persistent and could add up over time by the time we get to Sunday. We’re also watching the potential for some lake effect snow off Lake Ontario but it won’t be the GTA and Hamilton region that sees this one. A squall currently affecting Upstate New York east of Lake Ontario may shift northward through the overnight hours and bring a few hours of heavy snow to Prince Edward County, Kingston and Brockville. It will move back stateside later in the morning on Saturday.

As is typical with lake effect snow events, the significant snowfall will be extremely localized - note this forecast is a rough idea of the potential accumulation. A slight change in the wind direction can be the difference between 5cm and 50cm for a particular area. However, based on the latest data we believe there will be two zones with the potential for over 30cm of accumulation and perhaps much more than that. This includes Bruce and Grey counties along with parts of Simcoe County like Saugeen Shores, Hanover, Chatsworth, Flesherton, Midland, Elmvale and Craighurst. Locally there could be over 50cm of snowfall accumulation in some of these areas but not everyone will see that.

In surrounding regions, we expect a general 20-30cm east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay including Wingham, Listowel, Owen Sound, Collingwood, Barrie and Orillia. The squalls could stretch pretty far inland so the Kitchener/Waterloo and Kawartha Lake region may pick up between 10-20cm of snowfall accumulation. East of Georgian Bay through the Muskoka region and northward into Sudbury and North Bay will continue to see some moderate snowfall Friday evening and into Saturday adding up to just over 10cm.

As we mentioned, parts of Eastern Ontario may also see a few hours of heavy snowfall thanks to the Lake Ontario squall moving northward overnight. So we’ve put Prince Edward County, Kingston and Brockville in the 5-10cm zone but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a few localized amounts near 15cm close to the international border. The GTA through the Niagara region will see the odd burst of heavy snow from the lake effect activity but less than 5cm of accumulation is expected.

All lake effect activity will come to an end early Sunday with flurries lingering throughout the day on Sunday. As we look towards the last week of 2020, we’re monitoring the potential for more lake effect activity late Monday into Tuesday and maybe another system towards the end of the week. Way too early to say for sure but we could be dealing with a fairly messy New Years’ Eve with a possible winter storm. Just an early heads up as it could change.

Christmas Winter Storm to Bury Parts of Southern Ontario in Up to 20-40cm of Snow; Prolonged Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Through Eastern Ontario

TIP: A ZOOMED-IN VERSION OF THE MAP CAN BE FOUND FURTHER DOWN THE ARTICLE.

TIP: A ZOOMED-IN VERSION OF THE MAP CAN BE FOUND FURTHER DOWN THE ARTICLE.

Santa won’t be the only one hard at work overnight into Christmas Day as Mother Nature is also expected to pay a visit to parts of Southern Ontario resulting in a very White Christmas as you wake up on Christmas morning. And it won’t be just a dusting… In fact, this will probably be the snowiest Christmas for Southern Ontario in recent memory! Current data indicating the potential for widespread snowfall totals between 10-25cm by the end of Christmas Day with up to 40cm through the snowbelts thanks to some lake effect snow that will develop later in the day. Unfortunately, this Christmas miracle won’t be seen in Eastern Ontario with prolonged freezing rain through the Bancroft area and heavy rainfall through the Ottawa Valley. The freezing rain threat could threaten holiday celebrations (within your own household) in the affected regions with the potential for power outages.

TIMING

TIP: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN IT IN A NEW TAB AND BE ABLE TO ZOOM INTO THE GRAPHIC.

TIP: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN IT IN A NEW TAB AND BE ABLE TO ZOOM INTO THE GRAPHIC.

TIP: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN IT IN A NEW TAB AND BE ABLE TO ZOOM INTO THE GRAPHIC.

TIP: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN IT IN A NEW TAB AND BE ABLE TO ZOOM INTO THE GRAPHIC.

Precipitation has already been occurring across Southern Ontario during the afternoon on Christmas Eve and many areas have transitioned over from the light rainfall to wet snow. At this point, accumulation has been quite light but that will change as we head into the evening and overnight. Heavier bands of precipitation will enter the region just after the dinner hour continuing past midnight and into the early hours of Christmas. Except for Eastern Ontario, the precipitation will come down in the form of heavy snowfall. Ice pellets may mix in through the Kawartha Lakes, Haliburton and Algonquin Park area early Christmas morning.

Eastern Ontario will mainly see heavy rainfall into Christmas Morning with the potential for several hours of freezing rain overnight through the Bancroft and Barry’s Bay area. Most of the precipitation will clear by late Christmas morning but will persist around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as some lake effect snow develops. While we have snowfall occurring all day on our timing map for most areas, this doesn’t mean it will be occurring the whole time. We’re just showing the likely precipitation type if there is precipitation but the flurries will be scattered.

ACCUMULATION

TIP: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN IT IN A NEW TAB AND BE ABLE TO ZOOM INTO THE MAP.

.Generally, we can expect around 15-25cm of snowfall accumulation from the storm which includes London, Kitchener/Waterloo, Western GTA into the Hamilton and Niagara region. Around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay is where the forecast becomes tricky because we start to mix in some lake effect snow (which could be quite intense in some areas) especially towards later in the day of Christmas Day. This could lead to locally up to 40cm and perhaps, even more, when you combine the system and lake effect snow totals.

The area that has the best chance for these totals include just to the northwest of London through Grand Bend and Strathroy along with the Northern Simcoe County and Muskoka regions. Not everyone within the 20-40cm zone will see the lake effect snow so they’ll just receive the general system snowfall around 20-25cm which is why we have such a large range. For the City of Toronto and Eastern GTA, we’ll see some ice pellets and wetter snow from this storm which will lead to lower snowfall totals around 10-15cm with even less as you head out into Oshawa and the Kawartha Lakes area.

Do note this is very dependent on temperatures and if it’s slightly colder then these areas will see more snow and get way more snowfall accumulation than forecasted. Extreme Southwestern Ontario like Windsor and Sarnia will see less snowfall as well ranging from 5-10cm although it’s possible that they even see less than 5cm depending on the track of the system. Lake effect snow will likely linger into the weekend so we’ll be continuing to monitor that and issue more forecasts as needed.

TIP: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN IT IN A NEW TAB AND BE ABLE TO ZOOM INTO THE MAP.

Further east, the story will become the heavy freezing rain risk that extends from northeast of Oshawa through Bancroft and into the Barry’s Bay Area. Between 6-12 hours of heavy freezing rain is possible in this region which may lead to power outages and ice to accrete on untreated surfaces. Total ice accretion ranging from 6-12mm is expected in the hardest-hit regions and the impacts of this ice build-up will likely extend into the weekend with little potential for melting afterwards. Thankfully, the wind is expected to be fairly light so this ice storm should be fairly insignificant compared to what this area has seen in the past. could cause some issues if you were planning on cooking Christmas Dinner and there is no power due to the freezing rain.

More details on how to prepare for an ice storm can be found here:

Eastern Ontario will be asking ‘what storm?’ as they’ll experience a much different Christmas than the rest of the province with heavy rainfall ongoing and expected to continue into Christmas Day. Rainfall totals will range from 30-50mm which is a pretty significant amount in the middle of winter so flooding is possible in some areas.

From the Instant Weather team, we wish you a happy and safe Christmas and holiday season. We will be here over the next few days bringing you all the updates you’ll need to stay informed during this storm!

UPDATE: Christmas Winter Storm Expected to Bring Widespread Snowfall and Potential Ice Storm Risk Across Southern Ontario; Heavy Rainfall for Eastern Ontario

There continues to be very high confidence in an impactful winter storm across Southern Ontario starting Christmas Eve and continuing into Christmas Day. The latest trends in the data have shifted the storm track slightly to the east so as a result, this has pushed the heavy snowfall potential into the GTA and parts of Central Ontario. Between 10-25cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of Christmas Day is expected but some areas may see ice pellets mixed in especially near the orange zone which would reduce the accumulation.

The risk of prolonged freezing rain now extends from the Northwestern GTA through the Kawartha Lakes and north into Algonquin Park and Bancroft. Ice accretion in this area may exceed the level to be considered an ice storm (6-13mm of freezing rain) so there will likely be significant ice accretion on surfaces including the possibility for power outages - some of which may last for several days. It would be a good idea to have an alternative plan in place if you are having a Christmas dinner (within your household only) as the lack of power would make it difficult to cook.

Eastern Ontario is still on track to see a Green Christmas with heavy rainfall being the predominant precipitation type from this system in that area. Flooding could be a concern with rainfall totals ranging from 20-40mm with locally close to 50mm possible.

Precipitation will begin to enter the province sometime early Thursday morning starting as rain. Temperatures will be quite warm as you wake up on Thursday ranging from 2 to 7°C but that will change through the day. As the system continues to spread across the region, we’ll see colder air start to flow into the province from the west during the late morning or early afternoon causing the rain to transition over to heavy snow through Windsor and along the Lake Huron shoreline.

This transition will continue to occur throughout the rest of Thursday with the switch over to heavy snow complete west of a line roughly from Algonquin Park to Oshawa by the evening. A few hours of freezing rain is possible through the GTA between the transition during the late afternoon to early evening but it shouldn’t linger around too long. Another push of moisture from south of the border will enter our region late Christmas Eve setting the stage for heavy snow throughout the overnight into Christmas. This combined with the stalled out cold air will allow for the development of a fairly intense and persistent zone of freezing rain from Algonquin Park to Oshawa (closer to the lakeshore will see less icing). The freezing rain will continue for 6-12 hours from late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning before clearing up. Unfortunately, there won’t be a chance for the ice accretion to melt away after all the freezing rain with temperatures plunging below the freezing mark so the impacts of it will persist into the weekend.

Conditions will improve for most areas later in the day on Friday (Christmas Day), but with even colder air flowing into the region behind the system, it’ll cause the lake effect snow machine to turn onto full blast. We’re expecting some very intense snow squalls to develop somewhere southwest/west of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron from Friday evening through the weekend. Even could see some lake effect snow through parts of the Niagara region courtesy of a squall that is expected the hammer the Buffalo area.

Who could see the heaviest snowfall and exactly how much that will be is still uncertain as it will depend on how stable and focused these squalls become. We’ll have a better idea in the coming days as the higher resolution models come into range. With that being said, wouldn’t be shocked to see somewhere in the snowbelts come away with over 30cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of the weekend in addition to the system snowfall.

We will have a full detailed forecast for the upcoming winter storm published later Wednesday or early Thursday. This will include more precise accumulation maps and timeline graphics.

Xmas Winter Storm Eyes Southern Ontario With Up to 15–30cm of Snow and Ice Storm Risk; Heavy Rainfall in Eastern Ontario Washes Away Chance of a White Christmas

THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED

Here’s our latest forecast:

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OLD FORECAST

This holiday season will likely be one to remember and not just with the ongoing pandemic that has changed how we celebrate, but a strong winter storm is set to bring a messy mix of precipitation across parts of Southern Ontario on Christmas. For many, this will be the perfect timing for a storm with limited travel (except for all the essential workers of course - thanks to them for keeping the province running!) occurring during Christmas this year. The effects of this winter storm will be vastly different depending on your location ranging from significant snowfall in Southwestern Ontario to heavy rainfall out in Eastern Ontario and the threat of prolonged freezing rain in between that.

We should note however that the current track of this system is still unclear with the models jumping between a more western track to an eastern track. This would change where the mixing line is located and who sees the freezing rain vs. heavy snowfall. With the map above, we have tried our best to go with the consensus between all the models. Some changes should be expected as we get closer especially in zone #2-4 where the gradient between the different precipitation types is extremely tight. The more eastern and western parts of the province have the highest confidence with either heavy snowfall or rainfall being the predominant precipitation type.

What we do know is that precipitation will begin to enter the province sometime early Thursday morning starting as rain. Temperatures will be quite warm as you wake up on Thursday ranging from 3 to 8°C but don’t let that fool you! As the system continues to spread across the region, we’ll see colder air start to flow into the province from the west during the afternoon hours causing the rain to transition over to heavy snow through Windsor and along the Lake Huron shoreline.

The cold air will likely make it as far as around Lake Simcoe before stalling out creating quiet the temperature gradient where for example, Windsor will be near -5°C or colder Christmas morning while Ottawa basks in double digits temperatures. With the cold air stalling out, it will create the perfect environment for several hours of freezing rain from the Northern GTA through Muskoka and in Algonquin Park. The heaviest freezing rain threat will exist from late Thursday evening into Christmas morning - power outages aren’t out of the question in areas that see the heavy freezing rain so plan accordingly. Again, this freezing rain zone may shift further west or east depending on where the cold air stalls out.

Total snowfall accumulation will be quite extensive for the western part of our regions with up to 15-30cm of snow possible for locations like London, Goderich, Owen Sound, Parry Sound, North Bay and Sudbury. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a few areas approach or even exceed the 30-40cm mark with lower amounts closer to 5-10cm for Windsor and Sarnia due to less moisture. To the east, the story will be heavy rainfall with totals between 20-40mm (locally up to 50mm especially around the Kingston area) throughout Eastern Ontario.

Between these zones, we’ll see a mix of rain, snow and freezing rain with more rain through more eastern parts of Central Ontario (Bancroft etc.) and into the GTA/Niagara region close to the lakeshore. The threat of freezing rain will get stronger away from Lake Ontario and further west from K/W, Guelph through York Region and up into Central Ontario (Barrie, Orillia, Bracebridge, Huntsville etc.). This is where between 5-15mm of ice accretion is possible. Snow will become the main story to the west of this region with a sharp cut off between who sees the heavy icing or heavy snowfall.

The impacts of this storm will continue throughout the day on Christmas with all areas transitioning over to snow by the afternoon. We could also see some strong snow squalls develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as the system moves out of the region. At this point, the areas at the highest chance for the snow squalls include Muskoka, Parry Sound, Northern Simcoe County, Kincardine, Hanover, Owen Sound and Goderich. Snow squall activity will persist through the weekend with locally significant snowfall totals of over 25cm possible.

This storm will of course have a significant impact on the probability of waking up to a White Christmas in the morning across Southern Ontario. For much of Southern Ontario including Southwestern into Northeastern Ontario, a White Christmas is almost certain and we’ll even see the ‘perfect’ White Christmas where snow is coming down during the morning hours on Christmas. Unfortunately, the rain further east through Kingston and Ottawa will wash away any hope of a White Christmas.

There is some uncertainty through Central Ontario into the GTA where freezing rain could threaten a White Christmas but it should switch over to snow early in the morning especially the future west and away from the lakeshore you get. We’ve given the GTA lakeshore a 25% chance of a White Christmas with a 50% chance away from the lakeshore but this may change for the better or worse depending on the track of the storm. Our final White Christmas outlook will be issued Christmas Eve so we should have a better idea of the storm track.

Pre-Christmas Major Snowstorm to Deliver a Wintery Blast to Saskatchewan With Up to 25-40cm and Blizzard Conditions Possible on Tuesday

A significant winter storm is set to deliver a heavy dumping of snow to parts of Southern and Central Saskatchewan just a few days before Christmas. The hardest-hit regions from Kindersley through to Yorkton has the potential to pick up between 25-40cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of the day on Tuesday. Strong wind gusts between 60-80km/h will also be associated with this system which combined with the heavy snow, could result in blowing snow and blizzard conditions in some areas late Tuesday.

The first bands of snow will enter the western part of the province along the Alberta border just around midnight and spreading eastward through the morning on Tuesday. We expect the worst conditions will occur through Tuesday afternoon and early evening along with those strong wind gusts picking up and creating near-zero visibility out on the roads. Non-essential travel should be avoided during this time as highway closures are quite likely and you may become stranded.

Snowfall will continue late Tuesday and even into early Wednesday morning but most of the expected snowfall accumulation will be on the ground by the end of the day on Tuesday. Flurries will linger into Wednesday morning especially near the Manitoba border with conditions rapidly improving overnight Tuesday.

As we mentioned above, the heaviest snowfall totals will be found from the Alberta border around Kindersley, eastward through the Fort Qu’Appelle and Yorkton area. Current indications suggest that this area has the potential to see snow totals between 25-40cm by the time the snow tapers off late Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

Other areas including Swift Current, Moose Jaw and Regina can expect final snowfall accumulation between 15-25cm with localized amounts near 30cm. Lesser amounts are expected to the north and south with Saskatoon, Shaunavon and Weyburn seeing between 10-20cm of snowfall accumulation. The southeast and southwestern corners of the province will see less than 10cm of accumulation including Estevan.

In the wake of the storm, very cold air will flow into the province pushing temperatures to near or below -20°C across Saskatchewan by Wednesday morning. Wind chills will make it feel like -35°C or colder in some areas Wednesday morning and again on Christmas Eve morning near the Manitoba border. Temperatures will warm up as we head into Christmas morning with morning lows in the upper negative single digits or low teens. With these cold temperatures expected, it’s near-certain that Saskatchewan will see a White Christmas this year - our updated White Christmas outlook will be out on Tuesday.

Pre-Christmas Major Snowstorm to Deliver a Wintery Blast to Southern Manitoba With Up to 25-40cm Possible Between Tuesday and Wednesday

It has been a fairly quiet start to the winter season across Southern Manitoba, but that’s about to change as a significant winter storm is set to bring a heavy dumping of snow across the region. We’ve been following the developments of this system for a few days now and while the data has been fairly consistent, but there has been a trend with a more northern track in the latest data. This combined with a stronger system means we expect higher snow totals from this storm than we initially suggested. Some parts of South-central Manitoba from Roblin through the Interlake region have the potential to see final snow totals between 25-40cm with locally higher amounts around the Dauphin area.

Heavy bands of snow are expected to enter the province from Saskatchewan during the mid to late morning on Tuesday. The Roblin and Virden area will be the first to feel the effects of the storm spreading eastward throughout the rest of Tuesday. We expect the worst conditions to occur during the evening hours on Tuesday extending into Early Wednesday morning. There is still some disagreement amongst the models on how far south the bands of snow will get but at this point, we believe most of Southern Manitoba (except for Extreme Southwestern Manitoba) will see at least several hours of heavy snow. Strong wind gusts between 40-75kn/h will likely result in blowing snow out on the roads and localized blizzard conditions. Conditions will start to improve after sunrise on Wednesday with flurries lingering around into the afternoon but most of the snow on the ground by the mid to late morning.

As we mentioned above, the heaviest snowfall totals will be found from the Saskatchewan border around Roblin/Russell, eastward through the Central Interlake region and the Pine Falls area. Current indications suggest that this area has the potential to see snow totals between 25-40cm by the time the snow tapers off on Wednesday. We have also added a small zone around Dauphin where models are picking up on some localized heavier bands which may push snow totals near 50cm.

Other areas including Minnedosa, Neepawa, northern parts of Metro Winnipeg can expect final snowfall accumulation between 15-25cm with localized amounts near 30cm. The rest of Southern Manitoba including the Trans-Canada corridor from Brandon through Winnipeg is on track to see between 10-20cm. Brandon will likely be closer to the 10cm mark as per the latest data and areas south of the city will see less than 10cm due to slightly warmer temperatures.

In the wake of the storm, very cold air will flow into the province pushing temperatures to near or below -20°C across Southern Manitoba during the day on Wednesday. Even colder temperatures are expected to start the day on Christmas Eve with morning wind chills near -35°C! Temperatures will somewhat moderate as we head into Christmas morning but morning lows will still be in the mid negative teens. With these cold temperatures expected, it’s near-certain that Manitoba will see a White Christmas this year - our updated White Christmas outlook will be out on Tuesday.

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The Nightmare Before Christmas; Major Snowstorm Set to Dump Up to 50cm of Snow on Southern Alberta Including Calgary Between Monday and Tuesday

With only days to go until Christmas, a powerful snowstorm is setting its sight on parts of Southern Alberta beginning late Monday morning along the Rockies and later Monday for other areas. Heavy snowfall will be ongoing throughout the day on Monday and extending into Tuesday as moisture from the Pacific Ocean is drawn into the province.

To make matters worse, the low-pressure system bringing all this weather will further intensify causing wind gusts to pick up into the 40-60km/h range with stronger gusts overnight into Tuesday. Blowing snow and hazardous driving conditions are likely during this time so avoid all non-essential travel if possible. Snowfall will begin to come to an end later in the day on Tuesday as the system moves out over Saskatchewan although flurries will likely continue through the evening and maybe even into early Wednesday.

As with most snowstorm that affects Alberta, this will be a very elevation dependent storm when it comes to accumulation. The highest snowfall totals will of course be found through the Rockies to the southwest of Calgary including the Banff area with between 50-75cm of accumulation possible. A small area just to the south of Calgary that is slightly more elevated including the Foothills such as High River and Claresholm has the potential for between 30-50cm of snowfall accumulation.

Outside of the elevated areas, we expect between 20-30cm through the City of Calgary and eastward towards the Saskatchewan border including Brooks and Medicine Hat. Lower totals closer to 5-15cm is expected to the southeast of Lethbridge. And further north the accumulation will also be lower with less moisture to work with so Olds and Drumheller will see between 10-20cm while Red Deer gets around 5-10cm. Edmonton and Northern Alberta will see little to no snowfall from this event.

Snowy Start to the Week Across Southern Manitoba With Up to 10-15cm of Snowfall Accumulation by Monday Afternoon

A stronger than expected system is currently affecting Southwestern Manitoba as of Sunday afternoon and will continue to sweep across Southern Manitoba through the evening and into early Monday. Snowfall will taper off sometime during the morning or afternoon on Monday as the snow moves into Minnesota and Northern Ontario.

As far as accumulation, general amounts will range from 6-12cm through the Interlakes region and into Winnipeg. Lowers totals in the southwestern corner of the province including Brandon with between 2-6cm of accumulation possible. We’re noticing a small zone just to the northwest of Winnipeg that has the potential to see over 15cm of snowfall accumulation from this system in areas such as Dauphin, Eriksdale and Selkirk.

We continue to monitor the potential for a snowstorm on Tuesday into Wednesday across Southern Manitoba. Models are quite consistent with this storm putting a swath of 15-25cm of snow extending from Brandon through to Winnipeg, but there is still some time for that to change. We’ll have a preliminary forecast out either Sunday evening or during the day on Monday once we are confident in the exact track of this system.

A White Christmas Appears Very Likely for Most of Alberta With Potential Snowstorm Monday Into Tuesday

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

Unsurprisingly, a White Christmas is basically guaranteed for the Rockies into the Northern parts of Alberta. There is a significant snowpack in this area and it will likely only continue to grow throughout the week with more snowfall accumulation. For the lower elevations of Alberta into Calgary and Edmonton, it looks like a White Christmas will probably happen but it’s not guaranteed. This is due to a limited snowpack going into the weekend and temperatures several degrees above the freezing mark on both Saturday and Sunday. Calgary and Edmonton will likely have very little snow on the ground by the end of the weekend.

For those who are hoping for a White Christmas, we have good news that a system is expected to deliver a blast of accumulating snowfall to Alberta including Calgary and Edmonton between Monday and Tuesday. Between 10-20cm is possible from this storm with higher amounts along the Rockies. Calgary will likely see lower snow totals between 5-10cm though that may change. We’ll have a more detailed forecast as the event draws closer. With this storm and temperatures expected to stay below the freezing mark from Tuesday through to Christmas Day, a White Christmas is very likely.

Now we have decided to give a small zone in Extreme Southern Alberta an equal chance of a White Christmas. This includes Lethbridge and Cardston mostly because they may not see much snow from the storm early in the week and above freezing temperature until Tuesday. We will have to see how this develops in the coming days and once we get to Monday or Tuesday it should become clear if they’ll see a White Christmas or not.

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

A White Christmas Appears Very Likely Across Saskatchewan With Potential Snowstorm on Tuesday

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

It looks like a White Christmas is almost certain with snowfall already on the ground through most of Southern and Central Saskatchewan. The snowpack should be safe with only a brief window of above freezing temperatures this weekend and staying below freezing from Monday through to Christmas Day. As we head into the middle of the week, even colder Arctic air will flood into the province. Overnight lows will easily drop below the -20°C mark Tuesday night and perhaps again on Wednesday Night. The current temperature forecast across Saskatchewan for Christmas Day has temperatures within the negative single digits.

We’re also closely monitoring a potential snowstorm that could affect Central Saskatchewan on Tuesday. General snowfall totals between 10-20cm with locally as much as 25cm look possible from Kindersley to Yorkton. The track of this system is still uncertain so we’ll be waiting for a few more days until we put together a preliminary forecast. Check back later for more details!

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

A Chilly and White Christmas Appears Very Likely Across Manitoba With Potential Snowstorm Tuesday Into Wednesday

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

It looks like a White Christmas is almost certain with snowfall already on the ground through most of Southern Manitoba. The snowpack should be safe with only a brief window of above freezing temperatures this weekend and staying below freezing from Monday through to Christmas Day. As we head into the middle of the week, even colder Arctic air will flood into the province. Overnight lows will easily drop below the -20°C mark Wednesday night and perhaps again on Christmas Eve. The current temperature forecast across Manitoba for Christmas Day has temperatures within the negative teens and maybe even colder.

We’re also closely monitoring a potential snowstorm that could affect Southern Manitoba between Tuesday and Wednesday. General snowfall totals between 10-20cm with locally as much as 25cm look possible through Brandon to Winnipeg. The track of this system is still uncertain so we’ll be waiting for a few more days until we put together a preliminary forecast. Check back later for more details!

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

A Christmas Miracle for Southern Ontario As White Christmas Looks Likely in Most Areas; Potential Storm Christmas Eve Into Christmas Day

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

It has been a roller coaster start to the season across Southern Ontario with fairly mild temperatures and very little in the way of snowfall accumulation or winter storms. Although that does appear to be changing just in time for Christmas so most areas across Southern Ontario has a very good chance to wake up Christmas morning with snow on the ground.

The last weekend before Christmas will feature classic winter-like weather with temperatures near or slightly below the freezing mark and accumulating snow. The heaviest snow will be found through Central Ontario with between 5-10cm of fresh snow accumulation by the end of Sunday. As we head into the start of the week, temperatures will continue to be a few degrees within the freezing mark - likely not warm enough to melt through the existing snowpack in Central Ontario and Northeastern Ontario. Another weak system is expected to move across Southwestern and Central Ontario providing a few more centimetres overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Now with days remaining for the big day, milder air is expected to work its way into the province on Wednesday causing the temperature to rise into the mid to upper single digits. This is especially true within Extreme Southwestern Ontario around the Windsor areas with daytime highs around 7-9°C on Wednesday. The very limited snowpack in this area likely won’t survive temperatures that high so a White Christmas may not happen southwest of London. Christmas Eve will complicate this forecast even more because another day of warmer temperatures is expected on Thursday and this will also extend into Central and Eastern Ontario. A messy system likely starting as rain for most areas appears to move into Southern Ontario during the day on Thursday. If this doesn’t change, it could wash away the hope of a White Christmas for many.

Latest raw model data from the American model (GFS) showing the potential precipitation type Thursday evening (Christmas Eve) - NOTE: This is raw data and isn’t an official forecast. It will change as we get closer. We will have a detailed forecast in the coming days.

BUT not all is lost! Not only Santa Claus will be busy on Christmas Eve, but it looks like Mother Nature might deliver a Christmas miracle across Southern Ontario. The latest model trends suggest that the system affecting our region on Thursday may further intensify as cold air wraps in behind it. Rain will transition over to heavy snow late Thursday into Christmas Day. If it pans out, Southern Ontario could be looking at a fairly significant Christmas Day snowstorm with accumulation between 15-30cm somewhere in the region. Obviously, this will likely change as we get closer but it’s worth a mention at this point. Normally we’d be concerned about holiday-related travel, but with the current pandemic and recommendation for everyone to celebrate within their own household, it should have a limited impact. We’ve been cautious with our White Christmas outlook for this reason as it’s highly dependent on this potential snowstorm. We will be updating this outlook as we get closer and it becomes more certain on how the storm will affect our region.

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

Another Messy Winter Storm Is on the Way

Valid: Saturday Dec 12 - Monday Dec 14, 2020

Click for larger image

Snow will begin moving into the province this evening, and will spread across most of the province overnight.  In the south, snow will gradually change over to freezing rain and/or pellets, as it transitions to rain.  The Fundy shore will see mainly rain again with this system.  Central and northern areas of the province is expected to see 10-15cm of snow, with some areas possibly getting 20cm.  The system should move out by  early to mid morning on Monday.

South & Central:  Precipitation will begin as snow, and gradually switch over to rain.  During the transition, there may be freezing rain &/or ice pellets before turning to straight rain.  The Fundy shore will likely see mostly rain with this system.  Some areas could see up to 10-15cm of snow, some of which will melt with the rain.  The further north you go, the more snow and less mixed precipitation and rain there will be.  Winds will range from 15-35km/h, gusting 40-60km/h (strongest winds along the Fundy coast).  Temps will range from -5 to +5*c (warmest temps will be in the south)

North:  Northern areas of the province will see mainly snow, with accumulations of 10-15cm, and some areas seeing as much as 20cm.  Winds will range from 15-25km/h, gusting 30-50km/h. Temps will range from -4 to near the freezing mark.

Wind and gusts during the snowfall could create tricky driving situations, and reduced visibility.  Please drive for the conditions and be safe out there.

Storm chip probability:  50%

~ Harry
 

Messy Winter Storm to Bring Potentially Significant Snowfall and Freezing Rain to Central and Eastern Ontario Between Saturday and Sunday

For most of Southern Ontario, the upcoming ‘winter’ storm will feel more like a fall storm with above freezing temperatures and rain starting Saturday morning. The same can’t be said for areas throughout Central and Eastern Ontario where the clash of colder air and this system will create quite the messy mess with significant snowfall through more northern parts of the region and prolonged freezing rain to the south. By Sunday, locations like North Bay and Algonquin Park could see as much as 30cm of fresh snowfall accumulation. A freezing rain threat will exist through the higher elevations northwest of the GTA, east of Georgian Bay and into the Ottawa Valley. For some areas, it could lead to a significant icing with 4-8 hours of persistent heavy freezing rain. On the warm side of the system, we’ll see general rainfall amounts between 10-20mm through Southwestern Ontario and the GTA with locally over 20mm east of Lake Huron.

Timing

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the graphic.

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the graphic.

The storm will begin to affect Southern Ontario early Saturday morning with rainfall south of Lake Simcoe (freezing rain in the higher elevations near Orangeville) and heavy snow through Central and Eastern Ontario. We haven’t put together a timeline graphic for the GTA and Southwestern Ontario as it would be redundant with the only precipitation type being rain for this event. Rainfall will be ongoing from the early morning and throughout Sunday in this area.

As we head into the afternoon, we’ll start to see a zone of freezing rain develop from around Bracebridge through Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley. Freezing rain will continue for some areas for several hours before slowly transitioning over to rain. The Dundalk Highlands including Orangeville could see over 12 hours of freezing rain which would result in significant icing. Heavy snow will continue to pile up further north through the Parry Sound and North Bay corridor. By the evening most areas will likely have switched over to some rain except to the north. Colder air will flow in behind the system causing locations like Huntsville and Parry Sound to switch back over to heavy snow overnight.

Precipitation will start to taper off Sunday morning or early in the afternoon.

This storm will be giving us a sampling of almost all the different precipitation types across Southern Ontario so we have 3 different accumulation maps for snowfall, freezing rain and rainfall.

As we’ve mentioned, the heavy snow will be contained to the more northern regions of Southern Ontario including the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula. Locations like Tobermory, Britt, Sundridge, North Bay and Algonquin Park can expect between 20-30cm of snowfall accumulation. The totals will drop as the further south you go as more freezing rain and regular rain mixes in. Between 10-20cm is possible through Northern Muskoka and into the Barry’s Bay and Pembroke. After this, the snowfall gradient will get quite tight with Bracebridge, Haliburton and Bancroft right on the line of heavy snow and will likely end up around 4-8cm of accumulation. The rest of Southern Ontario will see less than 2cm of accumulation.

With the freezing rain, there are two areas of concern with one being through Central Ontario and another encompassing the higher elevations southwest of Collingwood. This small zone that includes Shelburne in the bullseye could see extremely localized ice storm conditions with upwards of 10mm of ice accretion. Orangeville and Flesherton have the potential to see between 6-12mm of ice accretion. Please note that this is an extremely localized event dependent on elevation so a location like Shelburne could be hit hard while Angus sees very little freezing rain.

Further north into Central Ontario and Central Ontario, several hours of freezing rain is also possible in locations like Huntsville, Haliburton, Bancroft and Renfrew which may pick up between 6-12mm of ice accretion. Power outages and significant impact to travel is expected in this area throughout Saturday.

A zone extending from the eastern Georgian Bay shoreline (Parry Sound, Bracebridge) and east into the Ottawa Valley will see a few hours of freezing rain with around 2-6mm of ice accretion. Other areas through Central and Eastern Ontario like Orillia, Peterborough and Bancroft may see one or two hours of freezing rain but accretion will be limited.

Those that don’t see the wintery precipitation which includes much of Southwestern Ontario into the GTA will see instead get heavy rainfall. In most areas, this rainfall totals will range from 10-20mm although some regions east of Lake Huron including Goderich, Kincardine and Owen Sound could exceed 20mm. The rainfall totals will be lower further north as more freezing rain and snow mixes in through Central and Eastern Ontario.

Winter Storm to Impact Southern Ontario This Weekend; 20+cm of Snow and Prolonged Freezing Rain Risk Possible in Some Areas

It’s hard to believe that we’re almost into the middle of December and have really only had a few big winter storms this season. The month started with a bang as some areas south of Georgian Bay received a dumping of snow. Otherwise, the month has been fairly quiet but that will change as we head into this weekend as an approaching system is set to deliver a wintery blast to Southern Ontario. Unlike the storm we saw at the beginning of the month, this one will be a classic winter storm lasting for about a day with heavy snow to the north, freezing rain risk in the middle and heavy rain to the south.

A few days ago there was some uncertainty in the track of the system which would determine who sees what when it comes to precipitation type. We’re starting to get a better idea and it looks like the heaviest snow will be located through northern parts of Central Ontario and into Northeastern Ontario. For the rest of Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley, there is the threat of several hours of freezing rain before slowly transitioning over to rain. And then for those south of Lake Simcoe through Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Ontario shoreline this will be mainly a rainfall event. Keep in mind this track may change and would shift the forecast either to the north or south.

Precipitation will start creeping into the province early Saturday morning starting with the regions further to the west around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Aside from the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, it will come down as rain for areas south of a line from Owen Sound to Barrie and through Peterborough. Light to moderate snowfall will start spreading across Central Ontario and into Eastern Ontario around the noon hour.

An area of freezing rain will start affecting areas further south like the Dundalk Highlands, Orillia/Bracebridge, Bancroft and Ottawa. This could linger into the evening and maybe overnight in some areas with persistent moderate to heavy icing during this time. Untreated surfaces like sidewalks and rural roads will certainly become quite icy in the affected regions so travel with care. Power outages are also possible so be prepared for that.

We’ll continue to see the storm’s impact continue into Sunday with heavy snow through northern parts of the region and freezing rain from Georgian Bay through the Ottawa Valley occurring into Sunday morning. Rainfall will start to mix in for Simcoe County and maybe as far north as Southern Muskoka and the Ottawa Valley early Sunday. For those who are seeing the heavy snow, some freezing rain may mix in as the mixing line moves to the north. The precipitation will start to taper off during the afternoon on Sunday with temperatures dropping to below the freezing mark as the system moves out. This could cause some icy conditions in areas that saw the rainfall earlier in the day although looks like it’ll be gradual so a flash freeze isn’t likely.

As far as accumulation, we’re looking at around 15-30cm of snow through Sudbury, North Bay and Algonquin Park. Snow totals will drop off to the south as more freezing rain mixing in with Huntsville and Parry Sound seeing around 10-20cm of snow and a few hours of freezing rain towards the end. Southern Muskoka through Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley will see mainly freezing rain with significant ice accretion between 6-12mm and as much as 5cm of snowfall accumulation. The rest of Southern Ontario will either see a few hours of freezing rain or just all rain with rainfall totals between 10-25mm by the end of the event. Again, a shift in the track could change who sees what so stay tuned for our final detailed forecast to be released Friday evening.

Active Weather Is on the Way for the Weekend

Valid: Saturday, December 5 to Monday December 7, 2020

Active weather is in store for New Brunswick over the next several days.  It will be bringing a mixed bag of conditions, including heavy rain for the southern portion of the province, and a fair bit of snow for the north.

Saturday Dec 5/20

Rain moves in along the Fundy shore, early to mid morning on Saturday, becoming heavy at times. It will continue through the day, gradually moving northward to cover much of the southern half of the province.  

Sunday Dec 6/20

Rain continues in the south, while overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, snow starts to move into the Northern half of the province.  There will be some mixing in the form of sleet in the Woodstock to McAdam, to Miramichi to Bathurst corridor, as rain transitions to snow. North of that should see mostly snow.  Gradually in the south, rain will transition to snow. 

Monday Dec 7/20

Snow will continue overnight, gradually declining as the system moves out of the province by early to mid morning.

The rain with this system will be heaviest near the Fundy shore, where rainfall totals could reach 40-60mm.

Sleet totals will vary, depending on the switch over from rain to snow. Roughly the area from Woodstock to McAdam, to Bathurst to Miramichi could see up to 2cm of sleet. The faster the switch over from rain to snow, the less sleet you’ll see, but snow totals will be higher.

North of the areas getting the sleet as noted above, you will see a fair bit of snow.  The further north, the more snow you’ll see.  Some areas North of Woodstock to Bathurst, you could see up to 40cm of the white stuff.

Winds will range from 20-40km/h, with gusts in some areas reaching to 80km/h

Please keep in mind that the snowfall combined with the winds, could create treacherous driving conditions. Hopefully you have your snow tires on already.  Be careful out there, and drive for the conditions.

Probability of storm chips:  North of Woodstock to Bathurst, 85%.  Time to get out and stock up!

~ Harry & Mike, IWNB