Questionable Daytime Storms Followed By More Organized Nocturnal Threat in Saskatchewan & Manitoba Thursday

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The cold front which triggered severe weather across Alberta and into Western Saskatchewan yesterday will continue its track eastward today, bringing the risk of severe weather into Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Similar to yesterday, storm development is questionable throughout the afternoon and evening, with any storms that do develop likely to become severe. There is, however, a much stronger nocturnal risk in place for some areas.

The possibility of isolated thunderstorm development will begin in the mid-afternoon and continue through the evening, starting in Saskatchewan and extending eastward into Manitoba with the gradual movement of the cold front. Weather models disagree with where and when these storms might occur and there is a distinct lack of organization with the storms that do show on the models.

If thunderstorms end up developing during this time, the environment will lead them to likely become severe. These storms could end up being capable of producing hail as large as ping pong balls and strong wind gusts up to 100km/h. There is a small chance that one or two of these storms could produce a tornado, with the risk of this increasing for more southern storms.

The greatest severe thunderstorm threat arrives after midnight, as a large cluster of storms will likely move into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba from south of the border. These storms are expected to be stronger than the ones that could develop during the day and they will track across Southern Manitoba through the early morning hours and eventually exiting into Ontario.

The nocturnal thunderstorms that move through this region may produce up to golf ball-sized hail and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. There will be a broad region of rain surrounding these thunderstorms and this could lead to some localized flooding as the storms track eastward.

Modelled temperature anomaly for Thurday shows Temperatures 5-10+°C above seasonal across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, courtesy of weatherbell.

We have also found ourselves in a bit of a heat wave across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba for the next couple of days. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low and mid 30s across parts of the region today and tomorrow, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year. With the humidity, it could feel closer to 40°C in some areas.

While more comfortable temperatures move into Saskatchewan on Friday and then Manitoba on Saturday, and this not being nearly as hot as it can get in the summer months, it’s important to be mindful of dealing with the bit of heat while it’s here.

If you spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

Your body loses electrolytes from sweating, so sports drinks that are high in electrolytes can help replenish what has been lost. Salty snacks are also helpful when it comes to regaining lost electrolytes.

Other tips for staying cool include wearing lightweight, light-coloured clothing and limiting direct sun exposure, if possible. Many municipalities offer public spaces with air conditioning where residents can go to cool off, especially those without central air in their homes/apartments.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.

Boom or Bust: Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Might Develop Across Alberta & Saskatchewan Wednesday as the Heat Breaks

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There is a widespread threat of active weather across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan on Wednesday. This is a result of a cold front that will sweep through the region, breaking the heat and likely triggering some strong severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. However, It’s looking like a ‘Boom or Bust’ sort of day in which thunderstorms could remain capped across most of the region, but if storms do develop, they could become quite strong.

The greatest threat for severe weather will be in parts of Northern Alberta, stretching northeastward from Edson through Whitecourt and beyond the Slave Lake area, highlighted in orange on our forecast map. The environment in this area will be able to support supercell thunderstorms that could develop in the Northern Foothills beginning early this afternoon, around 12-2pm.

The storms in this area could be capable of producing very large hail, as big as standard billiards balls, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. They are expected to travel northeastward across Alberta throughout the day and into Saskatchewan overnight. These will be fast moving storms so localized flooding from heavy rain is not a concern, but it is possible that we could see a tornado or two form in this region.

Additional development of slightly weaker, but still severe, thunderstorms could extend southward towards Calgary and through Southern Alberta beginning in the early afternoon. The likelihood storms initiating, however, decreases the further south you go. If storms do end up forming through this area, they are expected to quickly track east-northeastward across Alberta and into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon.

There is also the chance that the storms could skip over Southern Alberta completely, as the cold front pushes through, and instead develop in Southwestern Saskatchewan in the late afternoon and early evening. If these storms end up developing in either province, they are expected to pose more of a wind risk than a large hail risk. Given the environment that the storms could form in, damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h are possible and a lack of moisture should limit hail to the size of quarters and smaller.

Modelled temperature anomaly for wednesday shows Temperatures 5-10°C above seasonal, courtesy of weatherbell.

On top of the severe thunderstorm threat, today will also be the warmest day of the minor heat wave in Central and Southern Alberta. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 30s across most of Southern Alberta, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year.

It’s best to limit your time outside in this heat, especially since heat exhaustion can set in fairly quickly if you’re not careful.

If you do spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

Your body loses electrolytes from sweating, so sports drinks that are high in electrolytes can help replenish what has been lost. Salty snacks are also helpful when it comes to regaining lost electrolytes.

Other tips for staying cool include wearing lightweight, light-coloured clothing and limiting direct sun exposure, if possible. Many municipalities offer public spaces with air conditioning where residents can go to cool off, especially those without central air in their homes/apartments.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.

Severe Weather Threat Extends Across the Prairies Friday with Strong Risk and Tornadoes Possible in Parts of Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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It’s shaping up to be an active day across the Prairies today, with severe thunderstorms possible across all three provinces. In fact, today brings the strongest severe weather risk we’ve seen all week.

Most of the thunderstorms expected across the region will likely remain marginally severe, stretching from the Foothills in Alberta to the Manitoba-Ontario border. However, the bullseye for the most intense storms is over Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba.

Thunderstorms are expected to kick off in parts of the Southern Foothills early this afternoon. These storms will track east-northeastward, and additional development is likely through the mid-afternoon along a broad arc stretching eastward across Central Saskatchewan and into Central Manitoba later in the evening.

These widespread storms should persist into the night across the Prairies, especially the further east you go. Some of these storms could become severe and produce nickel-sized hail, along with strong wind gusts. There is also a risk of localized flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving or training thunderstorms.

In Alberta, conditions could be favourable for funnel clouds to form. While most of these remain harmless, there is a low chance that one or two could touch down briefly as a weak landspout tornado.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing the arc of thunderstorms at 6pm MT/CST & 7PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The greatest threat for severe weather today, however, will be to the south of the main batch of storms in Sakatchewan and Manitoba. The model image above shows these additional storms having already developed in the evening. Thunderstorm development in this more volatile area is expected to begin slightly earlier, around 3-5pm. Storms in this region will track eastward, while the southern edge of the cluster in Saskatchewan will likely expand south-southwestward toward the US border.

This area is forecast to encounter a highly supportive environment for severe storms in Southeastern Saskatchewan, with the possibility of storms to rapidly develop into supercell thunderstorms. Some isolated supercells could also initiate within this environment, along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba and into Southwestern Manitoba.

The highest risk area stretches from Carlyle, SK eastward through Brandon, MB, and north from the US border to the Foxwarren radar site. Storms moving through this area could become quite strong, with the potential to produce golf ball or larger hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and possibly one or two tornadoes. Intense rainfall is also likely, making localized flooding a concern in this region as well.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing thunderstorms in North Dakota, as well as in Saskatchewan & Manitoba at 9pm CST & 10PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

There are a couple of factors that might limit storm strength in this region. Lingering morning rain and cloud cover could reduce daytime heating, which would decrease the available energy for storm development. Additionally, an area of low-pressure that will track through North Dakota today may pull some of that energy south of the border, weakening the storms on the Canadian side.

Regardless of how strong the storms become, they are expected to track eastward throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. By the time they reach the Red River Valley after midnight, the storms should be quite weak and likely dissipate entirely not too long after.

Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Continues in Saskatchewan Thursday Along with Torndao Threat

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The same low pressure system and warm front that triggered the development of severe storms and multiple tornado warnings yesterday will continue to impact parts of Saskatchewan today. The same severe thunderstorm risk also exists today, but the difference is that there is now a secondary area of low pressure that has built up along the preexisting warm front and a cold front is trailing not too far behind. This means that today’s severe thunderstorm threat is further east than yesterday, and it does not extend quite as far northward.

Despite this, thunderstorms are still expected to once again develop along the length of the warm front, stretching approximately from Saskatoon through Regina and into the US, as the front continues to cross the province today. As with yesterday’s setup, it is looking likely that the thunderstorms today will start off as isolated cells in the mid to late afternoon, around 2-4pm, with a majority of them then merging into northeastward travelling multicellular lines later in the afternoon and through the evening.

The thunderstorms are anticipated to quickly surpass the severe threshold in the late afternoon, with the greatest severe threat expected in the early evening. Today’s severe thunderstorms, much like yesterday, will have the potential to create large hail, which could be as large as golf balls, damaging wind gusts up to 110km/h, and possibly an embedded tornado. At this point, it appears that the tornado risk is lower than yesterday, but the potential still exists. Environment Canada has highlighted around Regina and areas to the northeast, in particular, as a region where the strongest of today’s severe thunderstorms could impact.

Today’s storms are expected to weaken later in the evening, but there is a chance that they could remain severe as they continue tracking northeastward into Manitoba overnight. Futhermore, there could be some stray thunderstorms that develop a bit further west, behind the main line, throughout the evening. These storms will likely be weaker, with the preceding storms taking a lot of energy out of the environment. Nevertheless, they will have the potential to become severe, especially as the storms ahead of them lose strength.

Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Saskatchewan & Alberta Wednesday with the Risk of a Tornado

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A widespread risk of severe thunderstorms returns to Saskatchewan today with the arrival of a low pressure system that will track through the region. A warm front that will extend from the low is expected to trigger severe thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and continuing into overnight. The greatest risk for severe storms stretches from parts of Central Alberta through a large swatch of Central and Southern Saskatchewan, but there is also a chance for thunderstorms developing in the Foothills, which could become severe.

Thunderstorm development in the Foothills is expected to begin shortly after the lunch hour as isolated cells with further development possible throughout the afternoon and into the late evening. These isolated storms could have the potential to strengthen into severe supercell thunderstorms as they travel east-northeastward. The QE2 corridor between Red Deer and Calgary, in particular, could end up seeing some severe thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of toonie-sized hail and wind gusts up to 90km/h.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The thunderstorms further east, on the other hand, have a much greater chance of becoming severe, along with greater overall threats. As the warm front moves through the region, it is anticipated to trigger the development of severe thunderstorms along its entire length. This could begin as early as around noon, with storms continuing straight through into the overnight hours as the front tracks northeastward across Saskatchewan. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken later in the evening in the eastern half of the province, but there is the chance that the odd storm could maintain severe strength overnight.

One specific area that we will be monitoring will be along the Alberta border north to the Lloydminster and North Battleford area and from there, southeast to Regina. This is where the strongest of the storms will likely occur, which could possibly develop hail as large as golf balls, wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and potentially a tornado or two.

Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk Once Again on Thursday Targeting Saskatchewan and Manitoba with a Heightened Tornado Threat

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Severe weather is once again in the forecast for today, with a Strong severe thunderstorm risk for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The storms today will be triggered by a low pressure system that crossed into Saskatchewan from Alberta overnight. Heat and humidity will build throughout the day in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, so by the time the low moves into this region later on, the environment will be primed for strong severe thunderstorm development.

There have been some scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms in Central Saskatchewan already today, which should clear up in the early and mid-afternoon. Then, later this afternoon, isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to start to develop from Saskatoon and into Eastern Saskatchewan, at around 3-5pm.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST/7pm CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The storms could start off strong, particularly the ones that develop in the Saskatoon area, and are expected to strengthen further as they travel eastward, likely becoming supercellular in nature. Severe thunderstorms from Eastern Saskatchewan could move into Southwestern Manitoba as early as 4pm local time, but most models are suggesting this likely won’t happen until after 7pm. These storms will gradually lose strength after a few hours as they move through the region, becoming sub-severe by midnight.

The thunderstorms that develop closer to the American border could end up travelling along a southeasterly trajectory, which would limit the impacts of the storms from reaching the Red River Valley and Winnipeg area. There is the possibility, however, of a storm or two developing along the provincial border later in the evening which could eventually hit Winnipeg overnight as a sub-severe thunderstorm.

Simulated Radar from the NAM model showing 1am CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

Development that initiates in the Saskatoon area will eventually cross into Central Manitoba, likely shortly after midnight, but at this point the severe risk should be diminished and the main threat will be heavy rain associated with some strong wind gusts.

The strong severe weather threat today extends from east of Saskatoon southeastward into Manitoba and into North Dakota. The severe thunderstorms in this area could end up producing hail that’s larger than golf balls, wind gusts exceeding 100km/h, and possibly a tornado.

The greatest risk for these impacts, however, is expected to be in areas along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A corridor that stretches from Yorkton, Saskatchewan to Virden, Manitoba has been specifically highlighted by Environment Canada as an area where the environment will be conducive to the development of one or two tornadoes today.

Environment Canada Forecasting Severe Storm Risk Wednesday for Parts of the Prairies with Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and Flooding Threat

Environment canada Forecast for Wednesday, June 18th issued Tuesday afternoon

Environment Canada has issued its preliminary Thunderstorm Outlook for tomorrow afternoon, forecasting a Moderate threat across different parts of the Prairies. These storms will be triggered by a cold front associated with a low pressure system that will sink southward through the Prairies from the Arctic over the course of the day.

Central and Southern Manitoba and into Southeast and East Central Saskatchewan comprise the “A” area, covering from Regina eastward through Manitoba to the Ontario border. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting that severe thunderstorms could bring up wind gusts up to 90km/h, hail as large as toonies, and 20-30mm of heavy rain.

To the west, area “B” covers Southwest and West Central Saskatchewan. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting weaker storms here than to the east, with the main risks being wind gusts of 70-90km/h and up to nickel-sized hail.

The strongest severe weather threat in this forecast is in area “D”, located in Central and Southern Alberta. The main risks from the storms in this region, according to Environment, are wind gusts up to 110km/h, hail as large as billiards balls, and 25-50mm of heavy rain.

Surrounding these three main areas with Moderate threats is area “C” with Minor threat. Environment Canada is forecasting that this large area could see storms that have wind gusts up to 70km/h and pea-sized hail.

Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Across Alberta & Saskatchewan on Tuesday Could Bring Timbit-Sized Hail and Damaging Gusts Over 100km/h

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There is a widespread threat of severe thunderstorms in both Alberta and Saskatchewan today that are expected to be stronger than yesterday’s scattered pop-up storms.

The storms are expected to develop early this afternoon, around 12-2pm, across both Central and Northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as through the Foothills. The storms in the northern regions of both provinces should stay sub-severe, but the environment to the south of Edmonton and North Battleford/Saskatoon will be much more conducive to the storms surpassing the threshold of becoming severe.

These thunderstorms will start off as individual cells, but look to become more organized into multicellular clusters as they strengthen, travelling eastward and southeastward across Alberta and Saskatchewan through the afternoon and into the evening. However, it is possible that the odd storm could develop into an isolated supercell. The thunderstorms in this region will be capable of producing large hail, up to the size of a Timbit, as well as strong wind gusts approaching 100km/h and heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding.

There will be an additional area of severe thunderstorm development beginning in Southeastern Alberta in the early to mid afternoon, in the 1-3pm time-frame, which will cross into Southwestern Saskatchewan by 3-5pm. These storms are also expected to become larger multicellular clusters, which could produce some slightly smaller, nickel-sized hail and heavy rain, but the greatest concern will be widespread damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

The greatest wind threat is expected to occur in Southwestern Saskatchewan, through Maple Creek, Shaunavon, and Swift Current, from the late afternoon and into the evening. The intense winds could reach as far east as Moose Jaw and Regina after 10pm, though, as the storms continue tracking eastward. There is some uncertainty with this as storms across both Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to lose intensity after sunset and they could be sub-severe by the time they reach the Regina area. Nevertheless, we have extended our Slight risk eastward to cover this possibility.

The chance of a tornado developing from today’s storms is low, but as usual, it can not be completely ruled out with severe thunderstorms.

Stronger Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Friday in Alberta & Saskatchewan Which Could Bring Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and Possibly a Tornado

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While yesterday’s storms didn’t quite cross the threshold of becoming severe, the chances for severe thunderstorms are much greater for today, as a low pressure system moves through Central Alberta. Areas north of the low, into Northern Alberta, can expect widespread rain today as the system tracks eastward, with up to 20mm falling, and an additional 20mm is possible on the backside of the system through the day tomorrow. Around the low and southward, however, severe thunderstorms are expected to dominate the afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight hours.

Isolated thunderstorms could start to develop as early as the noon hour, but the bulk of the storms are anticipated to begin in the mid-afternoon, around 2-3pm, and continue into the evening across Central and Southern Alberta as the low and its associated warm front cross through the region. The storms triggered by this front are expected to be isolated, with the environment favourable for the development of supercells, so the activity won’t be as widespread as seen yesterday.

A bit later in the afternoon, there is also a slightly higher chance that storms in Southeastern Alberta could become severe as they cross into Saskatchewan. This will be dependent on the southerly winds clearing wildfire smoke out of the area so that daytime heating can be maximized ahead of the warm front. Storm activity could continue overnight through parts of Saskatchewan, but they are expected to quickly lose strength later in the evening so any remaining storms should be sub-severe.

Today’s severe thunderstorms could bring damaging wind gusts up to, and possibly exceeding, 100km/h, along with heavy downpours and hail as large as ping pong balls. In the East-Central region of Alberta, from Edmonton towards Lloydminster and southward to almost Red Deer, the environment will also be favourable for the development of funnel clouds and there is a slight chance of a tornado forming.

Fire danger map for June 12th produced by the government of Alberta

There has been a major decline in the fire hazard across most of Central and Southern Alberta with widespread rain over the past couple of days. That trend will continue into parts of Northern Alberta with the significant rain that is expected to fall to the north and on the backside of the low pressure system that will track across the province today.

The storms that could to move into Southwestern Saskatchewan later today may also start to lead to a downtrend in the fire danger in that area. We could possibly see this trend continue tomorrow as the system is expected to cross through Saskatchewan, bringing additional thunderstorm activity to the southern half of the province and widespread rain to the north of the low.

Much Needed Rainfall is Finally on its Way for Most of Saskatchewan This Weekend

Model image showing total rain from friday morning until monday morning, courtesy of weatherbell

Good news Saskatchewan: there's finally rain in the forecast! The bad news is that not everyone will see the rain and strong winds could still be an issue.

To start, we've already seen some scattered showers across Northern Saskatchewan this morning. The rain is expected to continue through the day and into tomorrow, with some pushing into Central Saskatchewan this evening.

This precipitation will be associated with non-severe thunderstorms, like we've seen for most of the week, which could bring strong wind gusts up to 70km/h and possibly small hail. Luckily though, these storms will finally bring a decent amount of precipitation.

Environment Canada forecast for friday afternoon

Early tomorrow morning, light rain will cross through Southern Saskatchewan. Then, in the afternoon, the rain from the north will push southeastward as it wraps around a low pressure system moving south from the Territories.

The rain is expected to fall in in Eastern Saskatchewan through Sunday morning and afternoon, dissipating in the evening and leading to much less rainfall in the Southwest than in the rest of the province. Aside from this region, widespread 10-50mm is expected by the end of Sunday. Luckily, the areas with the worst fires can expect a decent amount of rain this weekend.

Unfortunately, strong wind gusts up to 70km/h are expected to persist through the weekend and this could still pose a challenge for firefighting efforts despite the precipitation and cooler temperatures.

Up to 75mm of Rain for Parts of Southern Saskatchewan & Manitoba, Along with Worsening Air Quality, Expected to End the Work Week

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It is certainly shaping up to be a roller coaster of a week, weather-wise, across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The week began with record-breaking heat and relentless winds, which made things feel exceptionally dry and were the catalyst for the spread of multiple wildfires across both provinces. Now, cool Arctic air has flooded south and a low pressure system is pushing its way northward from the Dakotas, which will bring significant rain to parts of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday and Friday.

Pockets of rain on the leading edge of this system have been pushing northward into Southeast Saskatchewan and Westman already Wednesday evening. This will be followed by a large area of steady, heavier rain moving into this region shortly after midnight and continuing through most of the day Thursday.

The rain will gradually spread further northward Thursday morning and by the afternoon, it should also start to cross the border into the rest of Southern Manitoba. This delay in the start of the precipitation will lead to slightly less rain falling overall, but it’ll be fairly steady for the remainder of the event so a widespread 25-50mm can be expected.

In Southeast Saskatchewan and Westman, the earlier start to the precipitation will lead to this area receiving upwards of 75mm of rain. Considering this region already received a fair bit of rain Wednesday morning, this much additional rainfall could very easily lead to some localized flooding.

The center of this system will stay south of the border and will start making its way eastward early Friday morning. The rain will start to taper off, from west to east, beginning Friday morning, before it completely exits the region Saturday morning.

As far as the wildfire situation is concerned, this rain will definitely help containment and suppression efforts in some areas, but it likely won’t be enough to completely douse the flames. In Southeast Manitoba, where several out-of-control fires are burning as of Wednesday evening, 10-25mm is expected to fall with this system, which will be welcomed support.

In Saskatchewan though, the rain will unfortunately not push deep enough into the province to impact the fires that have been burning near Narrow Hills Provincial Park, to the north of Nipawin, so hopefully the cooler temperatures will be enough to help crews in this area.

The arrival of this low pressure system will also have a negative impact, mostly in Southern Manitoba, but also in Western Saskatchewan. As the low approaches, the wind direction will shift, causing wildfire smoke to start moving westward in Manitoba and southward through Saskatchewan.

But why does this happen? To explain, we need to dig a bit deeper into the science of meteorology.

Modelled low-level Wildfire Smoke Concentration at 12pm CT on Thursday, May 15th. Note: this particular model only extends so far into Canada, but it shows the movement of smoke in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

One of the fundamental rules in meteorology is that air will always want to flow from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. This is actually the main driver behind wind.

Air doesn’t take a straight path from high pressure to low pressure, though. Thanks to the Coriolis Effect, caused by the spinning of the planet, air travels towards a low pressure center in a more counter-clockwise fashion, as shown below.

diagram showing how air moves around both high pressure and low pressure centers, courtesy of NOAA.

Putting this all together, as the low pressure center gets closer to us, air will naturally travel towards it and this will pull the wildfire smoke along with it. With where the low will be positioned over North Dakota, this means that smoke will travel westward from the fires burning in Southeast Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario and southward from the fires in Northern Saskatchewan.

This is expected to begin early Thursday morning in Manitoba and after sunrise in Saskatchewan, continuing through the day. On Friday morning, as the low pressure center begins its trek eastward, the wind will start to shift direction. This will be much more noticeable in Manitoba, being closer to the low, with the smoke travelling southwestard during Friday morning and then southward by the afternoon.

Given the number of nearby active fires and their sizes, especially the Nopiming Fire, there is already more smoke in the air in Southern Manitoba than in Northern Saskatchewan. This means that greater concentrations of smoke will move into Winnipeg and the Interlake Region on Thursday and it will diffuse along its path southwestward as it curves towards the low. Then, as the winds shift direction, the thickest smoke will still be found closest to the fires and becoming more diffuse the further away.

In Saskatchewan, the smoke from the two fires near Narrow Hills Provincial Park will travel south-southwestward, into Prince Albert and Saskatoon. Given the distance from the low pressure center, the wind shift is expected to be minimal on Friday.

If the wildfire smoke moves into your area, especially at higher concentrations, try to limit your time spent outside, if possible. We certainly hope that with the arrival of the cooler air and the rain in some areas, that firefighter crews will be able to make considerable progress battling these fires and we will soon have some reprieve from the smoke.

First Slight Severe Thunderstorm Risk of the Year for the Prairies Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday Morning

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While we saw some severe storms eventually develop in Southeast Saskatchewan and Southwest Manitoba yesterday, the severe threat for today and into the overnight hours is heightened, resulting in our first Slight Risk of the season.

We’ve already seen heavy rain falling in parts of Central and Southern Alberta today, but thunderstorms have begun to develop and will continue as we progress later through the afternoon and into the evening At this point, it’s possible that these storms may become severe, with the main threat being strong wind gusts and heavy rain. The environment today is also conducive for the development of landspout (non-supercell) tornadoes around Calgary and to the east of the city so we will be watching this situation closely.

It’s further east, in Southern and Central Saskatchewan and Manitoba, that we’re seeing the greatest severe thunderstorm threat. Isolated storms are expected to start developing in the early evening, around 5-6pm and possibly a bit sooner in the afternoon, and models are once again suggesting that the environment could be favourable for the development of supercells.

A bit later in the evening, closer to 7-8pm, we could see some additional storm development in Southwest Saskatchewan as a multicellular line. This complex of storms would travel northeastward across the province and move into Central Manitoba in the early morning hours of Tuesday. It’s during these early morning hours that we could also see more isolated storms develop in Southwest Manitoba.

Large hail, damaging winds, and torrential downpours are all concerns with today’s storms. The possibility of tornadoes is low, but the development of one or two can not be completely ruled out.

Second Day of Temperatures Above 30°C Will Continue to Bake Southern Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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Monday will mark the second day of our heatwave in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. We will once again have a large area expecting temperatures above 30°C, and above 35°C temperatures are possible in a small pocket of Southern Manitoba that includes Winnipeg. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in place from Environment Canada for parts of Southern Manitoba for daytime highs up to the mid 30s and overnight lows only dropping down to the mid teens.

With extreme heat, it’s important to limit strenuous outdoor activities, if possible, or take multiple breaks and drink water often to protect yourself from heat exhaustion and stroke. Early signs of heat exhaustion include: headache, nausea, dizziness, thirst, dark urine and intense fatigue. In the presence of these symptoms, stop all activities and hydrate. Heat stroke, on the other hand, is much more serious. Heat stroke is most identified by confusion and loss of consciousness so make sure to seek immediate medical condition if someone is showing these symptoms.

Marginal Risk for Thunderstorms in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Beginning Sunday Evening

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With the arrival of the first heat wave of the year to Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba this weekend, we’re also looking at our first real threat of severe thunderstorms for the season.

Isolated storms are expected to develop along the American border in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba this evening, starting around 5-7pm. The storms will travel northeastward into both provinces throughout the evening and into the overnight hours.

Models are suggesting that the environment could be favourable for the development of supercells, but further analysis puts the development of severe storms in question and storms could remain sub-severe. One particular area of interest for possible severe storm development will be in Southeastern Saskatchewan and through the Westman and Interlake Regions.

If severe storms end up developing this evening, the overall threats are expected to be limited. These storms could produce small hail and strong wind gusts, while the possibility of a tornado is unlikely.

Post-Easter Storm Could Bring Up to 20cm of Snow to Parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba

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As we get later into the month of April, there have already been tastes of warm weather across the Prairies, with temperatures climbing into the upper teens and low 20s across parts of all three provinces. Don’t let that fool you because it is still spring in the region and that means the continued possibility of heavy snowfall events. This will be the case beginning Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 5AM cT Tuesday

Steady light snow is expected to continue in West Central Saskatchewan overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Early Tuesday morning, a low pressure system will push northward from North Dakota, bringing precipitation to Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba. The two areas of snow will merge before sunrise, creating a wide band of continuous snowfall.

As the morning progresses, the system will stall and the light snow in Western Saskatchewan will taper off. On the other hand, the snowfall will intensify along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border. Further eastward, into the Central Plains and across to the Ontario border, above-freezing temperatures will result in the precipitation from this system falling as rain.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 7pM cT Tuesday

Most of the snow will clear in Saskatchewan through Tuesday afternoon, leaving only the area of heavier snow on both sides of the Manitoba border by the evening. The snowfall will persist over this area overnight and it will gradually dissipate throughout the early morning hours.

In this area of constant snowfall, which includes Melville, Moosomin, and Yorkton in Saskatchewan, as well as Dauphin, Roblin, and Russell in Manitoba, residents can expect up to 20cm of snow accumulation by mid Wednesday morning. Depending on how much intensification we see Tuesday morning, it’s possible that up to 25cm could fall locally.

This much snow over a brief period will definitely make travel tricky throughout the day Tuesday so make sure to take extra caution when out on the roads.

Significant Spring Storm Expected to Dump up to 20cm and Possibly Locally Higher Amounts Across the Prairies

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It’s simply not spring in the Prairies without at least one major snowstorm and this year will be no different! A low pressure system will track across the region over the next couple of days, bringing widespread 10-20cm to all three Prairie provinces by the end of the work week. What makes this storm more interesting is that while some areas could see up to 20cm of snow, others could see temperatures approaching 20°C, particularly in Southern Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan!

The precipitation will begin Wednesday evening as rain across parts of Central Alberta. As the temperatures fall later in the evening, the rain will transition to snow, which will then spread both southward and eastward overnight and into early Thursday morning. A bit of rain will persist along the southern edge of precipitation into the morning, but it will eventually also transition over to snow, with a chance for some brief freezing rain in between.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), and Freezing rain (Pink) at 4AM MT Thursday

It’s during the early morning hours of Thursday that the snow will push into Saskatchewan while also starting to intensify across Central Alberta. As the morning continues, the heavy snow will cross into Saskatchewan, spreading southeastward across the province throughout the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon. The snow will then spread into Southern Manitoba Thursday afternoon with the heavier snow beginning in the evening.

The heavy snow will fall for several hours, leading to rapid accumulation of up to 20cm across the region, with the possibility of pockets where up to 25cm could fall. The band of heavy snow will start to taper off early Friday morning, but light snow is expected to continue throughout the day, with the possibility of periods of heavier snow in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), and Freezing rain (Pink) at 6PM CT Thursday

Wind gusts are expected to be up to 60km/h throughout the event and along with the heavy snow, travel may be difficult at times due to blowing snow. This could result in some isolated road closures in the hardest hit areas so make sure to check your local road conditions before going out over the next few days.

Mid-March Snowfall Will Help Build Back Some Snowpack With 10-20cm Expected Across a Wide Stretch of Alberta & Saskatchewan

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While we’re a little over a week away from the official start of spring, a majority of the snowpack is already gone across parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, winter is still hanging on with more snow incoming over the next couple of days.

This will help to add some much-needed moisture to part of the region, especially since we have seen well below average snowfall since November. Unfortunately for Southern Alberta, the driest part of the Prairies, can expect little to none of this incoming moisture.

The snow will cross through the Rockies and into Alberta at around sunrise on Thursday and spread northeastward deeper into the province throughout the morning and into the afternoon. The snow will intensify starting in the early afternoon and this heavier snowfall will continue straight through overnight. This will lead to a large stretch of Central and Northern Alberta receiving 10-20cm of snow and up to 25cm possible to the north of Lake La Biche and Cold Lake through Friday morning.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 4PM MT on Thursday

Light snow will make its way into Northern Saskatchewan early Thursday afternoon, followed by the more intense snowfall beginning in the early evening. This area of heavier snow will cross through Saskatchewan in an almost due easterly path and similar to in Alberta, it will dump 10-20cm across a large stretch of the province and up to 30cm from the Alberta border to almost La Ronge by Friday afternoon.

The arrival of additional moisture from a separate low-pressure system in the US on Friday morning makes the forecast in Central and Southern Saskatchewan a bit more complicated. This appears to be bringing a combination of rain, freezing rain, ice pellets, and snow to most of the southern half of the province throughout the morning as it merges with the system from the west.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the precipitation type and the area that could be impacted by the arrival of the secondary system. Therefore, for this forecast, we are only focusing on the snow coming from Alberta and we will cover this additional precipitation in a separate forecast that will be issued later in the day on Thursday

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (pink), and ice pellets (orange) at 2aM MT on Friday

Quick Blast of Intense Snowfall Could Bring Over 20cm to Parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba

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February has been a quiet month across the Prairies, as far as active weather is concerned. That has changed though, with the arrival of warmer air in the past few days, which has also brought heavier snowfall back to the region. Now, we are looking at that heavy snow across Saskatchewan and Manitoba for Thursday and Friday.

The snow will begin early Thursday in Northern Saskatchewan and surge southeastward throughout most of the morning, crossing into Manitoba at around 8-9am. The snow will be steady and fairly light for most of the day, falling at up to 2cm/hr, leading to a large swath of over 10cm across both provinces.

In the late afternoon and early evening, the snow will begin to taper off in Saskatchewan while at the same time, intensifying in Central Manitoba. The heavier snow is expected to cross the province throughout the evening and will bring snowfall totals to the higher end of the 10-20cm range, with a strong likelihood of localized pockets of over 20cm, particularly around Flin Flon, The Pas and Norway House. The intensified snowfall will also be associated with some stronger wind gusts of up to 70km/h, which could result in isolated whiteouts due to blowing snow.

As the short-lived system exits the region, the snow will finally taper off in Saskatchewan shortly after midnight on Friday and in Manitoba just before sunrise. The winds are also expected to weaken Friday morning, therefore reducing the blowing snow risk.

Last Year Was a Record-Breaking Tornado Season in Canada, According to Northern Tornadoes Project

The Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP), based out of Western University in London, Ontario, has just released their annual report on the 2024 tornado season. In it, the organization highlights that last year was a record-breaking year in terms of the length of the season.

Canada’s first tornado of the year was recorded in Malden Centre, Ontario on March 16th, coincidentally tying a tornado that hit Clifford, Ontario on March 16th, 2016 as the earliest recorded Ontario tornado. There were then a series of several late-season tornadoes that the NTP recorded: three individual twisters in New Brunswick on November 1st and the final tornado of the year near Fergus, Ontario on November 10th.

All told, this makes the 2024 tornado season 240 days long, over a span of nine different months. This is considerably longer than the typical season, which usually only has tornadoes in six separate months, from April to September. At this length, 2024 was the longest tornado season since at least 1980.

Another substantial finding in the report is that the 2024 tornado season was marked by the second-most tornadoes verified by the organization in a single season since their inception in 2017, with 129 tornadoes confirmed nationwide. A large spike in the total number came after the completion of the season, when the team could conduct further investigation and satellite review, which subsequently included an additional 16 tornadoes to the tally!

Most of the year’s tornadoes were rated as weak EF0s and EF1s, but the NTP did record 12 EF2 tornadoes. While this is double the amount from 2023, it is well below the 30+ recorded in both 2021 and 2022, both very active tornado seasons. Of these EF2 tornadoes, all but one (the Wolverton-Ayr tornado in Southern Ontario) occurred in forested areas of Northern Ontario and Quebec.

The Locations of all Tornadoes from 2024 and their corresponding EF-Scale Ratings, Courtesy of the Northern Tornadoes Project.

Geographically, Ontario was the province which was home to the most tornadoes this past season, with 50 tornadoes on land and 10 over water, which makes up almost half of all recorded tornadoes for the year. Out of the 50 tornadoes on land, 14 of them spawned during outbreaks on two individual days: June 29th had six and July 28th had eight. Quebec was the second-most active province, with 21 total tornadoes (four of which occurred over water), followed by Saskatchewan with 19.

At Instant Weather, we are a proud partner of the Northern Tornadoes Project. We developed our custom radar suite, Instant Weather Pro, in conjunction with the organization and the many weather reports from you, our community, help them in their mission.

For the upcoming 2025 season, the Northern Tornadoes Project team sounds excited to continue their work alongside the Northern Hail Project and the newly-founded Northern Mesonet Project. You can learn more about them at the Northern Tornadoes Project homepage and for more information regarding the report, you can find it here.

Bitter Arctic Air and Southern Moisture Will Bring up to 30cm of Snow to the Southern Prairies This Week

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The pattern of active weather across the Prairies will continue throughout the week with a new system moving in from the United States starting late Monday and continuing until Thursday afternoon.

Arctic air flooded southward following the passage of the storm this past weekend and it will have a significant impact on our incoming system. Very cold temperatures result in much higher snow ratios so what may look like a small amount of moisture actually leads to much greater accumulations of dry snow.

This is the situation we will find ourselves in this week. The incoming system doesn’t contain a great deal of moisture, but the cold temperatures, into the -20°s, will cause a significant amount of lightweight, dry snow to fall. Overall, we’re looking at a possibility of a widespread 20-30cm of snow falling across all three Prairie provinces.

The snow will fall mostly at a fairly light rate, however, the winds are expected to pick up overnight Wednesday in Saskatchewan and spreading into Manitoba through Thursday morning. The winds should peak early Thursday afternoon in Central and Southern Manitoba, gusting at up to 50km/h, before dying down in the evening so there could be a brief period of reduced visibility due to blowing snow.

Model Image showing the total amount of precipitation in millimetres

Alberta

Patches of snow will move into Southern Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan late Monday night from North Dakota. It will spread northward throughout the morning, reaching the Edmonton area around the lunch hour Tuesday.

Later Tuesday afternoon, the snow in Central Alberta and parts of Southern Alberta will taper off, but it will gradually return throughout Wednesday morning as the system reorganizes and the snow becomes steadier. The snowfall across the southern half of the province will continue into early Wednesday afternoon, at which point it will start to dissipate from west to east and finally ending Thursday morning before sunrise.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snowfall at 5AM MT/6AM CT Wednesday

Saskatchewan

After moving into Southwest Saskatchewan late Monday night, the patchy snow will spread northward and eastward throughout Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon. At that point, it should reach Lloydminster, as well as into the Saskatoon and Regina areas, but not quite to the Manitoba border.

Similar to what is expected to occur in Alberta, the snow along the leading edge is anticipated to dissipate beginning in the mid-afternoon Tuesday and continuing into the early evening before surging back across the province later in the evening. The reorganized snowfall will be much steadier overnight and through to Wednesday afternoon, possibly becoming heavy at times closer to the American border.

The snow will the begin to taper off in the Southwest early Wednesday afternoon as the system travels eastward, ending in Southern Saskatchewan in the late evening. Steady snow is expected to continue across parts of Central Saskatchewan during this period and will eventually start to dissipate through the pre-dawn hours of Thursday.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snowfall at 8PM MT/9PM CT Wednesday

Manitoba

Snow will move into the Parkland Region from Saskatchewan early Wednesday morning and cross the width of the province thorough the morning and into the early afternoon. At that point, the snow will begin in the Westman region and spread across Southern Manitoba through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

The snow in Southern Manitoba isn’t expected to last too long, with it dissipating from west to east starting in the late evening until the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Like Saskatchewan, the snow will persist across parts of Central Manitoba in the meantime, until early Thursday morning when it starts to taper off. The snow will finally end in Manitoba by noon on Thursday.