Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Threat Across the Prairies Friday into Saturday, Tornado Risk in All Three Provinces

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The same system that brought some severe thunderstorms to Central and Northern Alberta yesterday, albeit much weaker than originally anticipated, could once again trigger severe thunderstorms today. This time, however, we’re looking at two distinct areas across the Prairies where severe thunderstorms could impact.

The first area of concern is across the southern half of Manitoba and in Eastern Saskatchewan, along the provincial border.

Isolated thunderstorms could start to develop along Saskatchewan-Manitoba border, especially in the area from Hudson Bay to Cumberland House, around the lunch hour. These storms should then track eastward into Manitoba fairly quickly and they could become severe while still in Saskatchewan. If the storms remain sub-severe as the enter Manitoba, it’s very likely that they will still strengthen to become severe as they continue eastward throughout the afternoon and evening.

Additional thunderstorm development could continue southwestward, back into Southeast Saskatchewan, throughout the afternoon. These storms are also expected to track eastward across Manitoba through the evening and overnight, leading to the widespread severe risk.

It’s worth noting that thunderstorm development throughout this entire area is slightly questionable. The environment will be primed with heat, moisture and instability, but there’s the possibility that capping in the atmosphere will prevent them from even forming in the first place. If this cap breaks, however, we could be looking at some explosive thunderstorm development.

Any storms that do develop will likely have the potential to produce golf ball-sized hail or larger, damaging wind wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding. There is also the risk of a tornado forming from storms that could move through Southwestern Manitoba and into the Interlake and Red River Valley in the evening. It’s possible that the tornado risk could extend into Winnipeg, but there is some uncertainty with how far east it goes.

Simulated radar from the HRRR model shows the possible location of storms at 5pm CT, courtesy of Weather Bell.

Meanwhile, there will also be the risk for severe thunderstorms to form in Southern Alberta, along the cold front that continues to push southward through the province.

Scattered thunderstorms could start to develop as early as the mid afternoon throughout the Foothills, mostly to the south of Red Deer. While some of the storms that could develop may become severe, those that develop from Airdrie to Claresholm will be the ones worth watching today.

It’s not until a bit later in the afternoon and into the evening that this area could see the development of thunderstorms. These particular storms will likely strengthen quickly into strong, long-track supercell thunderstorms that will travel eastward across Southern Alberta through the evening. It’s entirely possible that these supercell thunderstorms could maintain their strength through the evening and overnight as they push deep into Saskatchewan, possibly reaching as far east as Moose Jaw, and maybe even into Regina, in the early morning hours.

The threat from the severe storms in Alberta and into Saskatchewan today is very similar to yesterday, with the potential for golf ball-sized hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding, and even the possibility of a tornado. However, considering that yesterday’s High Risk from Environment Canada and expectations from weather models didn’t quite materialize, we’ve opted to go with a Slight Risk for Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today. However, the possibility is still there for strong storms to develop so be mindful of any Watches or Warnings that may be issued.

Strong Severe Thunderstorms with Tornado Threat Possible in Central Alberta, Widespread Severe Risk Throughout Northern Alberta and into Saskatchewan

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Now that a warm front has brought some heat back into Alberta, active weather returns. Severe thunderstorms are possible across Northern and Central Alberta this afternoon, and into Saskatchewan later this evening. Central Alberta, in particular, could see some especially strong storms today, complete with the risk of an isolated tornado.

There have already been some scatted showers in Northern Alberta this morning, mostly in the northwest. Further development of thunderstorms is likely across the region and into Northern Saskatchewan this afternoon. These storms are expected to continue through the evening and into the early overnight hours before tapering off. It’s possible that some of these scattered storms could become severe throughout the day, with the potential for strong wind gusts up to 100km/h, toonie-sized hail, and heavy downpours.

The main area of concern for today, however, is in Central Alberta. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate in this region in the early to mid afternoon, which will gradually track eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening and overnight.

These storms likely strengthen into strong supercell thunderstorms by the late afternoon, which brings a strong risk to an area from Olds to Drayton Valley and east towards Wainright. There is the threat of hail larger than golf balls, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, heavy rain, and even the risk of an isolated tornado. These storms could be a major issue for motorists, especially between Red Deer and Edmonton, as they are expected to cross the QE2 during the evening commute.

The severe weather threat should decrease during the late evening and overnight hours, with the storms weakening as they continue along an eastward trajectory towards Saskatchewan. There is still the chance, however, that an isolated storm could remain severe during this time frame, which could still have the potential to produce large hail and strong wind gusts. The tornado risk, however, will decrease greatly.

Severe Storms Possible in Alberta & Saskatchewan Saturday with Tornado and Funnel Cloud Risk

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The cluster of severe thunderstorms that crossed through Alberta yesterday evening and overnight has been weakening as they have continued to track through Southern and Central Saskatchewan this morning. On the backside of these storms, there should be sufficient clearing in order for more severe thunderstorms to develop throughout Central and Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Thunderstorm development should begin in the early to mid-afternoon, with scattered storms in Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan. The majority of these storms in Alberta will possibly become severe, but they aren’t expected to be too strong as they track eastward throughout the afternoon. These storms could bring some strong gusts, small hail, and heavy rain to areas in their path today.

Storms that could form to the north of Medicine Hat, however, and into Saskatchewan are expected to be the stronger, with the possibility to produce damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h and hail as large as Timbits, along with heavy downpours.

The possibility of strong storms developing to the west of Swift Current early this afternoon is worth noting. These particular storms could strengthen into a severe line that extends southward to the US border through the afternoon.

There is also the risk of a tornado or two forming during the early hours of these storms’ lives, in the late afternoon and the early evening, in an area that includes Shaunavon, Swift Current, Assiniboia and just into Moose Jaw. This risk does diminish as the line pushes eastward, with the storms expected to bring a strong wind and hail threat into Regina and to the east throughout the evening hours.

Overall, the intensity of storms will be dependent on how much daytime heating can occur and how much moisture can be funnelled northward following this morning’s active weather.

The dashed line outlines the funnel cloud risk from environment Canada

Back in Alberta, more storms could kick off in the Foothills a bit later in the afternoon. These storms will likely be more organized than the scattered pop-up storms expected earlier in the afternoon. There is a chance of them becoming severe in the evening as they track eastward through Calgary and areas to the south, with the possibility of producing strong wind gusts, toonie-sized hail, and heavy rain which could result in more localized flooding.

There is also the possibility that funnel clouds could develop today southeast of Edmonton, from Camrose to Oyen. It’s important to remember that funnel clouds have the potential to touch down as weak landspout tornadoes so be alert if you’re in this area today.

Severe Thunderstorms Possible in Southern Alberta & Southwestern Saskatchewan Thursday, Along with Risk of Funnel Clouds

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Despite some cooler temperatures still sticking around, severe thunderstorms are likely today in Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Thunderstorms have already been making their way through parts of Southern Alberta this morning and for the most part, they’ve been fairly weak. As we progress into the afternoon, some of these storms could strengthen to severe levels as they continue tracking east-southeastward. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected to occur closer to the US border through the afternoon, which will also probably become severe. The thunderstorms will track into Southwestern Saskatchewan later in the afternoon and will continue until the late evening hours, at which time they will move south of the border.

The area with the greatest risk of severe weather today will be in deep Southeastern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, as shown in yellow on the forecast map. In this region, storms could produce strong wind gusts and Timbit-sized hail. These threats also also possible throughout the rest of Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, shown in green, but the risk is slightly lower.

The dashed line outlines the funnel cloud risk from environment Canada

There is also the chance for funnel clouds to form today to the north of where the severe thunderstorms are expected. This will be in the area from Calgary and Olds, eastward through Drumheller and Hanna, and just crossing into Saskatchewan to include the Leader area. If you’re in this region, it’s important to remember that funnel clouds can possibly touch down as weak landspout tornadoes.

Strong Severe Storms Possible in Central Alberta & Saskatchewan, Uncertainty Further East and into Manitoba

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There are two areas across the Prairies where there is the risk of severe thunderstorms today. The difference between these two areas, however, is the likelihood of storm development, with storms in Central Alberta and Saskatchewan looking much more likely to occur than those in Eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba.

A cold front that will track through Alberta and Saskatchewan today is expected to begin triggering thunderstorm development early this afternoon in West Central Alberta. These storms should intensify into a line of strong severe thunderstorms as they approach the QE2 corridor, particularly around Red Deer.

This line of storms should maintain its strength for several hours, travelling eastward across Alberta through the afternoon. The storms will then cross into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon/early evening and continue their eastward trajectory, gradually weakening later into the evening and overnight.

Borderline destructive wind gusts of up to 120km/h are possible from Red Deer eastward towards Saskatoon as the line of severe thunderstorms move through the region. Furthermore, hail as large as golf balls and localized flooding are concerns, along with the possibility of one or two embedded tornadoes.

Additional scattered thunderstorms could pop up behind the main line in both Alberta and Saskatchewan throughout the day and continuing overnight, but these storms are expected to be weaker. For those attending the Stampede today, there is the chance for an isolated storm, but the greatest risk for severe weather will remain to the north.

Meanwhile, there is also the risk of severe thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan, along the Manitoba border, and eastward into Manitoba as the cold front makes its way into this area. In particular, parts of Southern Manitoba could be the main target of these storms.

Modelled CAPE (Convective available potential energy) as of 5PM CT highlighting southwestern Manitoba as the area with the most energy

All the ingredients for severe thunderstorms are expected to be in place today in this area, with heat and energy funnelling northward throughout the day ahead of the arrival of the front. Despite this, a strong cap will also be in place, so whether or not storms actually form remains questionable. Short-term weather models are not even showing any thunderstorms developing in this area, further cementing the uncertainty here.

IF thunderstorms end up breaking through the cap, it’s not expected to occur until the evening, but the storms could become quite strong. Large hail will be the main concern with these potential storms, with golf ball-sized or larger appearing possible. Strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall, possibly leading to localized flooding, could also be associated with storms that develop. This situation will certainly bear monitoring throughout the day.

It’s also worth noting that temperatures across the Prairies, with the exception of most of Southern Manitoba, can expect to see more comfortable temperatures tomorrow following the passage of the cold front today.

Questionable Daytime Storms Followed By More Organized Nocturnal Threat in Saskatchewan & Manitoba Thursday

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The cold front which triggered severe weather across Alberta and into Western Saskatchewan yesterday will continue its track eastward today, bringing the risk of severe weather into Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Similar to yesterday, storm development is questionable throughout the afternoon and evening, with any storms that do develop likely to become severe. There is, however, a much stronger nocturnal risk in place for some areas.

The possibility of isolated thunderstorm development will begin in the mid-afternoon and continue through the evening, starting in Saskatchewan and extending eastward into Manitoba with the gradual movement of the cold front. Weather models disagree with where and when these storms might occur and there is a distinct lack of organization with the storms that do show on the models.

If thunderstorms end up developing during this time, the environment will lead them to likely become severe. These storms could end up being capable of producing hail as large as ping pong balls and strong wind gusts up to 100km/h. There is a small chance that one or two of these storms could produce a tornado, with the risk of this increasing for more southern storms.

The greatest severe thunderstorm threat arrives after midnight, as a large cluster of storms will likely move into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba from south of the border. These storms are expected to be stronger than the ones that could develop during the day and they will track across Southern Manitoba through the early morning hours and eventually exiting into Ontario.

The nocturnal thunderstorms that move through this region may produce up to golf ball-sized hail and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. There will be a broad region of rain surrounding these thunderstorms and this could lead to some localized flooding as the storms track eastward.

Modelled temperature anomaly for Thurday shows Temperatures 5-10+°C above seasonal across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, courtesy of weatherbell.

We have also found ourselves in a bit of a heat wave across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba for the next couple of days. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low and mid 30s across parts of the region today and tomorrow, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year. With the humidity, it could feel closer to 40°C in some areas.

While more comfortable temperatures move into Saskatchewan on Friday and then Manitoba on Saturday, and this not being nearly as hot as it can get in the summer months, it’s important to be mindful of dealing with the bit of heat while it’s here.

If you spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

Your body loses electrolytes from sweating, so sports drinks that are high in electrolytes can help replenish what has been lost. Salty snacks are also helpful when it comes to regaining lost electrolytes.

Other tips for staying cool include wearing lightweight, light-coloured clothing and limiting direct sun exposure, if possible. Many municipalities offer public spaces with air conditioning where residents can go to cool off, especially those without central air in their homes/apartments.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.

Boom or Bust: Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Might Develop Across Alberta & Saskatchewan Wednesday as the Heat Breaks

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There is a widespread threat of active weather across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan on Wednesday. This is a result of a cold front that will sweep through the region, breaking the heat and likely triggering some strong severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. However, It’s looking like a ‘Boom or Bust’ sort of day in which thunderstorms could remain capped across most of the region, but if storms do develop, they could become quite strong.

The greatest threat for severe weather will be in parts of Northern Alberta, stretching northeastward from Edson through Whitecourt and beyond the Slave Lake area, highlighted in orange on our forecast map. The environment in this area will be able to support supercell thunderstorms that could develop in the Northern Foothills beginning early this afternoon, around 12-2pm.

The storms in this area could be capable of producing very large hail, as big as standard billiards balls, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. They are expected to travel northeastward across Alberta throughout the day and into Saskatchewan overnight. These will be fast moving storms so localized flooding from heavy rain is not a concern, but it is possible that we could see a tornado or two form in this region.

Additional development of slightly weaker, but still severe, thunderstorms could extend southward towards Calgary and through Southern Alberta beginning in the early afternoon. The likelihood storms initiating, however, decreases the further south you go. If storms do end up forming through this area, they are expected to quickly track east-northeastward across Alberta and into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon.

There is also the chance that the storms could skip over Southern Alberta completely, as the cold front pushes through, and instead develop in Southwestern Saskatchewan in the late afternoon and early evening. If these storms end up developing in either province, they are expected to pose more of a wind risk than a large hail risk. Given the environment that the storms could form in, damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h are possible and a lack of moisture should limit hail to the size of quarters and smaller.

Modelled temperature anomaly for wednesday shows Temperatures 5-10°C above seasonal, courtesy of weatherbell.

On top of the severe thunderstorm threat, today will also be the warmest day of the minor heat wave in Central and Southern Alberta. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 30s across most of Southern Alberta, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year.

It’s best to limit your time outside in this heat, especially since heat exhaustion can set in fairly quickly if you’re not careful.

If you do spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

Your body loses electrolytes from sweating, so sports drinks that are high in electrolytes can help replenish what has been lost. Salty snacks are also helpful when it comes to regaining lost electrolytes.

Other tips for staying cool include wearing lightweight, light-coloured clothing and limiting direct sun exposure, if possible. Many municipalities offer public spaces with air conditioning where residents can go to cool off, especially those without central air in their homes/apartments.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.

Severe Weather Threat Extends Across the Prairies Friday with Strong Risk and Tornadoes Possible in Parts of Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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It’s shaping up to be an active day across the Prairies today, with severe thunderstorms possible across all three provinces. In fact, today brings the strongest severe weather risk we’ve seen all week.

Most of the thunderstorms expected across the region will likely remain marginally severe, stretching from the Foothills in Alberta to the Manitoba-Ontario border. However, the bullseye for the most intense storms is over Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba.

Thunderstorms are expected to kick off in parts of the Southern Foothills early this afternoon. These storms will track east-northeastward, and additional development is likely through the mid-afternoon along a broad arc stretching eastward across Central Saskatchewan and into Central Manitoba later in the evening.

These widespread storms should persist into the night across the Prairies, especially the further east you go. Some of these storms could become severe and produce nickel-sized hail, along with strong wind gusts. There is also a risk of localized flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving or training thunderstorms.

In Alberta, conditions could be favourable for funnel clouds to form. While most of these remain harmless, there is a low chance that one or two could touch down briefly as a weak landspout tornado.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing the arc of thunderstorms at 6pm MT/CST & 7PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The greatest threat for severe weather today, however, will be to the south of the main batch of storms in Sakatchewan and Manitoba. The model image above shows these additional storms having already developed in the evening. Thunderstorm development in this more volatile area is expected to begin slightly earlier, around 3-5pm. Storms in this region will track eastward, while the southern edge of the cluster in Saskatchewan will likely expand south-southwestward toward the US border.

This area is forecast to encounter a highly supportive environment for severe storms in Southeastern Saskatchewan, with the possibility of storms to rapidly develop into supercell thunderstorms. Some isolated supercells could also initiate within this environment, along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba and into Southwestern Manitoba.

The highest risk area stretches from Carlyle, SK eastward through Brandon, MB, and north from the US border to the Foxwarren radar site. Storms moving through this area could become quite strong, with the potential to produce golf ball or larger hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and possibly one or two tornadoes. Intense rainfall is also likely, making localized flooding a concern in this region as well.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing thunderstorms in North Dakota, as well as in Saskatchewan & Manitoba at 9pm CST & 10PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

There are a couple of factors that might limit storm strength in this region. Lingering morning rain and cloud cover could reduce daytime heating, which would decrease the available energy for storm development. Additionally, an area of low-pressure that will track through North Dakota today may pull some of that energy south of the border, weakening the storms on the Canadian side.

Regardless of how strong the storms become, they are expected to track eastward throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. By the time they reach the Red River Valley after midnight, the storms should be quite weak and likely dissipate entirely not too long after.

Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Continues in Saskatchewan Thursday Along with Torndao Threat

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The same low pressure system and warm front that triggered the development of severe storms and multiple tornado warnings yesterday will continue to impact parts of Saskatchewan today. The same severe thunderstorm risk also exists today, but the difference is that there is now a secondary area of low pressure that has built up along the preexisting warm front and a cold front is trailing not too far behind. This means that today’s severe thunderstorm threat is further east than yesterday, and it does not extend quite as far northward.

Despite this, thunderstorms are still expected to once again develop along the length of the warm front, stretching approximately from Saskatoon through Regina and into the US, as the front continues to cross the province today. As with yesterday’s setup, it is looking likely that the thunderstorms today will start off as isolated cells in the mid to late afternoon, around 2-4pm, with a majority of them then merging into northeastward travelling multicellular lines later in the afternoon and through the evening.

The thunderstorms are anticipated to quickly surpass the severe threshold in the late afternoon, with the greatest severe threat expected in the early evening. Today’s severe thunderstorms, much like yesterday, will have the potential to create large hail, which could be as large as golf balls, damaging wind gusts up to 110km/h, and possibly an embedded tornado. At this point, it appears that the tornado risk is lower than yesterday, but the potential still exists. Environment Canada has highlighted around Regina and areas to the northeast, in particular, as a region where the strongest of today’s severe thunderstorms could impact.

Today’s storms are expected to weaken later in the evening, but there is a chance that they could remain severe as they continue tracking northeastward into Manitoba overnight. Futhermore, there could be some stray thunderstorms that develop a bit further west, behind the main line, throughout the evening. These storms will likely be weaker, with the preceding storms taking a lot of energy out of the environment. Nevertheless, they will have the potential to become severe, especially as the storms ahead of them lose strength.

Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Saskatchewan & Alberta Wednesday with the Risk of a Tornado

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A widespread risk of severe thunderstorms returns to Saskatchewan today with the arrival of a low pressure system that will track through the region. A warm front that will extend from the low is expected to trigger severe thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and continuing into overnight. The greatest risk for severe storms stretches from parts of Central Alberta through a large swatch of Central and Southern Saskatchewan, but there is also a chance for thunderstorms developing in the Foothills, which could become severe.

Thunderstorm development in the Foothills is expected to begin shortly after the lunch hour as isolated cells with further development possible throughout the afternoon and into the late evening. These isolated storms could have the potential to strengthen into severe supercell thunderstorms as they travel east-northeastward. The QE2 corridor between Red Deer and Calgary, in particular, could end up seeing some severe thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of toonie-sized hail and wind gusts up to 90km/h.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The thunderstorms further east, on the other hand, have a much greater chance of becoming severe, along with greater overall threats. As the warm front moves through the region, it is anticipated to trigger the development of severe thunderstorms along its entire length. This could begin as early as around noon, with storms continuing straight through into the overnight hours as the front tracks northeastward across Saskatchewan. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken later in the evening in the eastern half of the province, but there is the chance that the odd storm could maintain severe strength overnight.

One specific area that we will be monitoring will be along the Alberta border north to the Lloydminster and North Battleford area and from there, southeast to Regina. This is where the strongest of the storms will likely occur, which could possibly develop hail as large as golf balls, wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and potentially a tornado or two.

Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk Once Again on Thursday Targeting Saskatchewan and Manitoba with a Heightened Tornado Threat

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Severe weather is once again in the forecast for today, with a Strong severe thunderstorm risk for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The storms today will be triggered by a low pressure system that crossed into Saskatchewan from Alberta overnight. Heat and humidity will build throughout the day in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, so by the time the low moves into this region later on, the environment will be primed for strong severe thunderstorm development.

There have been some scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms in Central Saskatchewan already today, which should clear up in the early and mid-afternoon. Then, later this afternoon, isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to start to develop from Saskatoon and into Eastern Saskatchewan, at around 3-5pm.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST/7pm CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The storms could start off strong, particularly the ones that develop in the Saskatoon area, and are expected to strengthen further as they travel eastward, likely becoming supercellular in nature. Severe thunderstorms from Eastern Saskatchewan could move into Southwestern Manitoba as early as 4pm local time, but most models are suggesting this likely won’t happen until after 7pm. These storms will gradually lose strength after a few hours as they move through the region, becoming sub-severe by midnight.

The thunderstorms that develop closer to the American border could end up travelling along a southeasterly trajectory, which would limit the impacts of the storms from reaching the Red River Valley and Winnipeg area. There is the possibility, however, of a storm or two developing along the provincial border later in the evening which could eventually hit Winnipeg overnight as a sub-severe thunderstorm.

Simulated Radar from the NAM model showing 1am CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

Development that initiates in the Saskatoon area will eventually cross into Central Manitoba, likely shortly after midnight, but at this point the severe risk should be diminished and the main threat will be heavy rain associated with some strong wind gusts.

The strong severe weather threat today extends from east of Saskatoon southeastward into Manitoba and into North Dakota. The severe thunderstorms in this area could end up producing hail that’s larger than golf balls, wind gusts exceeding 100km/h, and possibly a tornado.

The greatest risk for these impacts, however, is expected to be in areas along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A corridor that stretches from Yorkton, Saskatchewan to Virden, Manitoba has been specifically highlighted by Environment Canada as an area where the environment will be conducive to the development of one or two tornadoes today.

Environment Canada Forecasting Severe Storm Risk Wednesday for Parts of the Prairies with Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and Flooding Threat

Environment canada Forecast for Wednesday, June 18th issued Tuesday afternoon

Environment Canada has issued its preliminary Thunderstorm Outlook for tomorrow afternoon, forecasting a Moderate threat across different parts of the Prairies. These storms will be triggered by a cold front associated with a low pressure system that will sink southward through the Prairies from the Arctic over the course of the day.

Central and Southern Manitoba and into Southeast and East Central Saskatchewan comprise the “A” area, covering from Regina eastward through Manitoba to the Ontario border. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting that severe thunderstorms could bring up wind gusts up to 90km/h, hail as large as toonies, and 20-30mm of heavy rain.

To the west, area “B” covers Southwest and West Central Saskatchewan. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting weaker storms here than to the east, with the main risks being wind gusts of 70-90km/h and up to nickel-sized hail.

The strongest severe weather threat in this forecast is in area “D”, located in Central and Southern Alberta. The main risks from the storms in this region, according to Environment, are wind gusts up to 110km/h, hail as large as billiards balls, and 25-50mm of heavy rain.

Surrounding these three main areas with Moderate threats is area “C” with Minor threat. Environment Canada is forecasting that this large area could see storms that have wind gusts up to 70km/h and pea-sized hail.

Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Across Alberta & Saskatchewan on Tuesday Could Bring Timbit-Sized Hail and Damaging Gusts Over 100km/h

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There is a widespread threat of severe thunderstorms in both Alberta and Saskatchewan today that are expected to be stronger than yesterday’s scattered pop-up storms.

The storms are expected to develop early this afternoon, around 12-2pm, across both Central and Northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as through the Foothills. The storms in the northern regions of both provinces should stay sub-severe, but the environment to the south of Edmonton and North Battleford/Saskatoon will be much more conducive to the storms surpassing the threshold of becoming severe.

These thunderstorms will start off as individual cells, but look to become more organized into multicellular clusters as they strengthen, travelling eastward and southeastward across Alberta and Saskatchewan through the afternoon and into the evening. However, it is possible that the odd storm could develop into an isolated supercell. The thunderstorms in this region will be capable of producing large hail, up to the size of a Timbit, as well as strong wind gusts approaching 100km/h and heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding.

There will be an additional area of severe thunderstorm development beginning in Southeastern Alberta in the early to mid afternoon, in the 1-3pm time-frame, which will cross into Southwestern Saskatchewan by 3-5pm. These storms are also expected to become larger multicellular clusters, which could produce some slightly smaller, nickel-sized hail and heavy rain, but the greatest concern will be widespread damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

The greatest wind threat is expected to occur in Southwestern Saskatchewan, through Maple Creek, Shaunavon, and Swift Current, from the late afternoon and into the evening. The intense winds could reach as far east as Moose Jaw and Regina after 10pm, though, as the storms continue tracking eastward. There is some uncertainty with this as storms across both Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to lose intensity after sunset and they could be sub-severe by the time they reach the Regina area. Nevertheless, we have extended our Slight risk eastward to cover this possibility.

The chance of a tornado developing from today’s storms is low, but as usual, it can not be completely ruled out with severe thunderstorms.

Stronger Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Friday in Alberta & Saskatchewan Which Could Bring Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and Possibly a Tornado

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While yesterday’s storms didn’t quite cross the threshold of becoming severe, the chances for severe thunderstorms are much greater for today, as a low pressure system moves through Central Alberta. Areas north of the low, into Northern Alberta, can expect widespread rain today as the system tracks eastward, with up to 20mm falling, and an additional 20mm is possible on the backside of the system through the day tomorrow. Around the low and southward, however, severe thunderstorms are expected to dominate the afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight hours.

Isolated thunderstorms could start to develop as early as the noon hour, but the bulk of the storms are anticipated to begin in the mid-afternoon, around 2-3pm, and continue into the evening across Central and Southern Alberta as the low and its associated warm front cross through the region. The storms triggered by this front are expected to be isolated, with the environment favourable for the development of supercells, so the activity won’t be as widespread as seen yesterday.

A bit later in the afternoon, there is also a slightly higher chance that storms in Southeastern Alberta could become severe as they cross into Saskatchewan. This will be dependent on the southerly winds clearing wildfire smoke out of the area so that daytime heating can be maximized ahead of the warm front. Storm activity could continue overnight through parts of Saskatchewan, but they are expected to quickly lose strength later in the evening so any remaining storms should be sub-severe.

Today’s severe thunderstorms could bring damaging wind gusts up to, and possibly exceeding, 100km/h, along with heavy downpours and hail as large as ping pong balls. In the East-Central region of Alberta, from Edmonton towards Lloydminster and southward to almost Red Deer, the environment will also be favourable for the development of funnel clouds and there is a slight chance of a tornado forming.

Fire danger map for June 12th produced by the government of Alberta

There has been a major decline in the fire hazard across most of Central and Southern Alberta with widespread rain over the past couple of days. That trend will continue into parts of Northern Alberta with the significant rain that is expected to fall to the north and on the backside of the low pressure system that will track across the province today.

The storms that could to move into Southwestern Saskatchewan later today may also start to lead to a downtrend in the fire danger in that area. We could possibly see this trend continue tomorrow as the system is expected to cross through Saskatchewan, bringing additional thunderstorm activity to the southern half of the province and widespread rain to the north of the low.

Much Needed Rainfall is Finally on its Way for Most of Saskatchewan This Weekend

Model image showing total rain from friday morning until monday morning, courtesy of weatherbell

Good news Saskatchewan: there's finally rain in the forecast! The bad news is that not everyone will see the rain and strong winds could still be an issue.

To start, we've already seen some scattered showers across Northern Saskatchewan this morning. The rain is expected to continue through the day and into tomorrow, with some pushing into Central Saskatchewan this evening.

This precipitation will be associated with non-severe thunderstorms, like we've seen for most of the week, which could bring strong wind gusts up to 70km/h and possibly small hail. Luckily though, these storms will finally bring a decent amount of precipitation.

Environment Canada forecast for friday afternoon

Early tomorrow morning, light rain will cross through Southern Saskatchewan. Then, in the afternoon, the rain from the north will push southeastward as it wraps around a low pressure system moving south from the Territories.

The rain is expected to fall in in Eastern Saskatchewan through Sunday morning and afternoon, dissipating in the evening and leading to much less rainfall in the Southwest than in the rest of the province. Aside from this region, widespread 10-50mm is expected by the end of Sunday. Luckily, the areas with the worst fires can expect a decent amount of rain this weekend.

Unfortunately, strong wind gusts up to 70km/h are expected to persist through the weekend and this could still pose a challenge for firefighting efforts despite the precipitation and cooler temperatures.

Up to 75mm of Rain for Parts of Southern Saskatchewan & Manitoba, Along with Worsening Air Quality, Expected to End the Work Week

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It is certainly shaping up to be a roller coaster of a week, weather-wise, across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The week began with record-breaking heat and relentless winds, which made things feel exceptionally dry and were the catalyst for the spread of multiple wildfires across both provinces. Now, cool Arctic air has flooded south and a low pressure system is pushing its way northward from the Dakotas, which will bring significant rain to parts of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday and Friday.

Pockets of rain on the leading edge of this system have been pushing northward into Southeast Saskatchewan and Westman already Wednesday evening. This will be followed by a large area of steady, heavier rain moving into this region shortly after midnight and continuing through most of the day Thursday.

The rain will gradually spread further northward Thursday morning and by the afternoon, it should also start to cross the border into the rest of Southern Manitoba. This delay in the start of the precipitation will lead to slightly less rain falling overall, but it’ll be fairly steady for the remainder of the event so a widespread 25-50mm can be expected.

In Southeast Saskatchewan and Westman, the earlier start to the precipitation will lead to this area receiving upwards of 75mm of rain. Considering this region already received a fair bit of rain Wednesday morning, this much additional rainfall could very easily lead to some localized flooding.

The center of this system will stay south of the border and will start making its way eastward early Friday morning. The rain will start to taper off, from west to east, beginning Friday morning, before it completely exits the region Saturday morning.

As far as the wildfire situation is concerned, this rain will definitely help containment and suppression efforts in some areas, but it likely won’t be enough to completely douse the flames. In Southeast Manitoba, where several out-of-control fires are burning as of Wednesday evening, 10-25mm is expected to fall with this system, which will be welcomed support.

In Saskatchewan though, the rain will unfortunately not push deep enough into the province to impact the fires that have been burning near Narrow Hills Provincial Park, to the north of Nipawin, so hopefully the cooler temperatures will be enough to help crews in this area.

The arrival of this low pressure system will also have a negative impact, mostly in Southern Manitoba, but also in Western Saskatchewan. As the low approaches, the wind direction will shift, causing wildfire smoke to start moving westward in Manitoba and southward through Saskatchewan.

But why does this happen? To explain, we need to dig a bit deeper into the science of meteorology.

Modelled low-level Wildfire Smoke Concentration at 12pm CT on Thursday, May 15th. Note: this particular model only extends so far into Canada, but it shows the movement of smoke in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

One of the fundamental rules in meteorology is that air will always want to flow from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. This is actually the main driver behind wind.

Air doesn’t take a straight path from high pressure to low pressure, though. Thanks to the Coriolis Effect, caused by the spinning of the planet, air travels towards a low pressure center in a more counter-clockwise fashion, as shown below.

diagram showing how air moves around both high pressure and low pressure centers, courtesy of NOAA.

Putting this all together, as the low pressure center gets closer to us, air will naturally travel towards it and this will pull the wildfire smoke along with it. With where the low will be positioned over North Dakota, this means that smoke will travel westward from the fires burning in Southeast Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario and southward from the fires in Northern Saskatchewan.

This is expected to begin early Thursday morning in Manitoba and after sunrise in Saskatchewan, continuing through the day. On Friday morning, as the low pressure center begins its trek eastward, the wind will start to shift direction. This will be much more noticeable in Manitoba, being closer to the low, with the smoke travelling southwestard during Friday morning and then southward by the afternoon.

Given the number of nearby active fires and their sizes, especially the Nopiming Fire, there is already more smoke in the air in Southern Manitoba than in Northern Saskatchewan. This means that greater concentrations of smoke will move into Winnipeg and the Interlake Region on Thursday and it will diffuse along its path southwestward as it curves towards the low. Then, as the winds shift direction, the thickest smoke will still be found closest to the fires and becoming more diffuse the further away.

In Saskatchewan, the smoke from the two fires near Narrow Hills Provincial Park will travel south-southwestward, into Prince Albert and Saskatoon. Given the distance from the low pressure center, the wind shift is expected to be minimal on Friday.

If the wildfire smoke moves into your area, especially at higher concentrations, try to limit your time spent outside, if possible. We certainly hope that with the arrival of the cooler air and the rain in some areas, that firefighter crews will be able to make considerable progress battling these fires and we will soon have some reprieve from the smoke.

First Slight Severe Thunderstorm Risk of the Year for the Prairies Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday Morning

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While we saw some severe storms eventually develop in Southeast Saskatchewan and Southwest Manitoba yesterday, the severe threat for today and into the overnight hours is heightened, resulting in our first Slight Risk of the season.

We’ve already seen heavy rain falling in parts of Central and Southern Alberta today, but thunderstorms have begun to develop and will continue as we progress later through the afternoon and into the evening At this point, it’s possible that these storms may become severe, with the main threat being strong wind gusts and heavy rain. The environment today is also conducive for the development of landspout (non-supercell) tornadoes around Calgary and to the east of the city so we will be watching this situation closely.

It’s further east, in Southern and Central Saskatchewan and Manitoba, that we’re seeing the greatest severe thunderstorm threat. Isolated storms are expected to start developing in the early evening, around 5-6pm and possibly a bit sooner in the afternoon, and models are once again suggesting that the environment could be favourable for the development of supercells.

A bit later in the evening, closer to 7-8pm, we could see some additional storm development in Southwest Saskatchewan as a multicellular line. This complex of storms would travel northeastward across the province and move into Central Manitoba in the early morning hours of Tuesday. It’s during these early morning hours that we could also see more isolated storms develop in Southwest Manitoba.

Large hail, damaging winds, and torrential downpours are all concerns with today’s storms. The possibility of tornadoes is low, but the development of one or two can not be completely ruled out.

Second Day of Temperatures Above 30°C Will Continue to Bake Southern Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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Monday will mark the second day of our heatwave in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. We will once again have a large area expecting temperatures above 30°C, and above 35°C temperatures are possible in a small pocket of Southern Manitoba that includes Winnipeg. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in place from Environment Canada for parts of Southern Manitoba for daytime highs up to the mid 30s and overnight lows only dropping down to the mid teens.

With extreme heat, it’s important to limit strenuous outdoor activities, if possible, or take multiple breaks and drink water often to protect yourself from heat exhaustion and stroke. Early signs of heat exhaustion include: headache, nausea, dizziness, thirst, dark urine and intense fatigue. In the presence of these symptoms, stop all activities and hydrate. Heat stroke, on the other hand, is much more serious. Heat stroke is most identified by confusion and loss of consciousness so make sure to seek immediate medical condition if someone is showing these symptoms.

Marginal Risk for Thunderstorms in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Beginning Sunday Evening

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With the arrival of the first heat wave of the year to Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba this weekend, we’re also looking at our first real threat of severe thunderstorms for the season.

Isolated storms are expected to develop along the American border in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba this evening, starting around 5-7pm. The storms will travel northeastward into both provinces throughout the evening and into the overnight hours.

Models are suggesting that the environment could be favourable for the development of supercells, but further analysis puts the development of severe storms in question and storms could remain sub-severe. One particular area of interest for possible severe storm development will be in Southeastern Saskatchewan and through the Westman and Interlake Regions.

If severe storms end up developing this evening, the overall threats are expected to be limited. These storms could produce small hail and strong wind gusts, while the possibility of a tornado is unlikely.

Post-Easter Storm Could Bring Up to 20cm of Snow to Parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba

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As we get later into the month of April, there have already been tastes of warm weather across the Prairies, with temperatures climbing into the upper teens and low 20s across parts of all three provinces. Don’t let that fool you because it is still spring in the region and that means the continued possibility of heavy snowfall events. This will be the case beginning Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 5AM cT Tuesday

Steady light snow is expected to continue in West Central Saskatchewan overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Early Tuesday morning, a low pressure system will push northward from North Dakota, bringing precipitation to Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba. The two areas of snow will merge before sunrise, creating a wide band of continuous snowfall.

As the morning progresses, the system will stall and the light snow in Western Saskatchewan will taper off. On the other hand, the snowfall will intensify along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border. Further eastward, into the Central Plains and across to the Ontario border, above-freezing temperatures will result in the precipitation from this system falling as rain.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 7pM cT Tuesday

Most of the snow will clear in Saskatchewan through Tuesday afternoon, leaving only the area of heavier snow on both sides of the Manitoba border by the evening. The snowfall will persist over this area overnight and it will gradually dissipate throughout the early morning hours.

In this area of constant snowfall, which includes Melville, Moosomin, and Yorkton in Saskatchewan, as well as Dauphin, Roblin, and Russell in Manitoba, residents can expect up to 20cm of snow accumulation by mid Wednesday morning. Depending on how much intensification we see Tuesday morning, it’s possible that up to 25cm could fall locally.

This much snow over a brief period will definitely make travel tricky throughout the day Tuesday so make sure to take extra caution when out on the roads.