Blizzard Conditions Expected as High Impact Winter Storm Targets the Prairies Wednesday With Up to 30cm of Snow

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The next Clipper to cross the Prairies, the latest in the seemingly never-ending train of such systems, is setting up to be the most impactful of the season so far. This system will bring 15+cm of snow to all three provincial capitals, along with blizzard conditions to parts of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Wednesday and into Thursday. There has been little change in the projected track of the Clipper since we shared our preliminary forecast Monday evening so many of the details remain the same and total snowfall accumulations have become clearer.

Alberta

Snow has fallen throughout the day Tuesday in the Rockies and this will continue into the evening and overnight. Late Tuesday evening, the snow will begin to expand southeastward from Northwestern Alberta as the low pressure center associated with the system starts to make its way into the province. The leading edge of the snow will cross Alberta through the early morning hours, reaching the Saskatchewan border shortly before sunrise.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5Am MT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The snow will be fairly light to moderate for most of the impacted areas of Alberta. A majority of Southern Alberta can expect less than 5cm since the precipitation will start off as a mixture of rain and freezing rain, possibly for several hours, due to the temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. However, there will be a switch over to snow as the temperatures drop, leading to the freezing of wet surfaces and minimal snow accumulation.

To the north, the lack of warm air and more consistent snowfall will result in greater accumulations. A large swath of Central Alberta and into Northern Alberta can expect 5-15cm of fresh snow, falling at rates of 1-2cm/hr during the late morning and early afternoon. In the Edmonton area and southeastward through Wainwright to the Saskatchewan border, heavier snow is expected to fall, possibly exceeding 3cm/hr, leading to rapid accumulation above 15cm.

In the early afternoon, the snow will begin to taper off from northwest to southeast across Alberta and it will gradually exit the province during the evening.

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The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 12Pm CST on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Saskatchewan

As the system makes its way through Saskatchewan, the situation becomes quite a bit messier. The leading edge of the precipitation will start to push through the province during the morning mostly as snow, but with rain, freezing rain, and ice pellets in the mix through the warmer air that will be present in Southern Saskatchewan. The freezing rain could last for several hours, resulting in a few millimetres of ice buildup on untreated surfaces. However, as the low tracks eastward during the afternoon, cold air will wrap around and result in a freezing of wet surfaces and a period of snow that follows.

Meanwhile, across Central Saskatchewan, as the snow moves through the province, it will intensify. Heavy snowfall rates up to 4cm/h during the afternoon and evening will result in the widespread quick accumulation of 15-30cm over an area that includes both Saskatoon and Regina.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7Pm CT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Manitoba

The snow will finally start to cross into Manitoba in the late morning. There will be a much smaller pocket of warm air that will be isolated to the southwest corner of the province, so while there will be a chance for a brief period of freezing rain in Manitoba, the risk won’t be as prolonged or as widespread as in Saskatchewan.

The area of heavier snowfall will spread from Central Saskatchewan into Central Manitoba through the afternoon and evening, where it will also result in a widespread 15-30cm of fresh snow, including in Winnipeg.

During the evening, the system will begin to shift and start to track more southward as it also loses some intensity. This will bring the main band of snow into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba overnight and through Thursday morning.

In Saskatchewan, the snow will taper off starting shortly after midnight and exit the province by around sunrise. The snow will continue for a few extra hours in Manitoba, starting to dissipate during the early morning hours and eventually finishing in the southeast corner of the province in the afternoon.

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This only covers the snowfall aspect of this storm, but there is one major factor left to consider: the wind. Strong winds are expected to develop Wednesday morning and continue through the afternoon and evening before dying down overnight across the Prairies. We’re looking at widespread wind gusts over 60km/h and likely exceeding 100km/h, particularly in Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. There is even the possibility of damaging wind gusts that approach 130km/h in parts of Southern Alberta!

While the most intense gusts will not coincide with the area where the heaviest snow is expected to fall, gusts above 60km/h will be more than enough for blizzard conditions to develop across Central Saskatchewan and into Central Manitoba starting in the afternoon and lasting into the overnight hours. This will likely result in large stretches of multiple highways being closed due to very poor visibility along with rapid accumulation of snow on the road surfaces.

For the rest of the region, where the wind gusts could be stronger, even a little bit of snowfall could severely impact visibility throughout the day.

Travelling in these conditions can extremely dangerous so please plan ahead, try to limit any travel, and stay safe!

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First Look at the Major Snowstorm Set to Impact the Prairies This Week

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After a seemingly constant stretch of back-to-back clippers bringing brief blasts of snow, we’re finally looking at a proper snowstorm across the Prairies this week. While this will be another clipper, it will be much more impactful, bringing periods of heavy snow to Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, and Winnipeg. Here’s a preliminary look at roughly what can be expected, but keep in mind that exact timing and snowfall amounts will likely change between now and the start of the event.

The snow is set to begin late Tuesday or very early Wednesday morning in the Rockies and Northern Alberta before gradually spreading eastward with the trajectory of the associated low. The leading edge of the snow will cross into Saskatchewan before sunrise Wednesday and then into Manitoba by the late morning or early afternoon.

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The snowfall should be fairly moderate as it tracks across Alberta before it starts to taper off in the evening. To the east, on the other hand, the snow is expected to intensify Wednesday afternoon in Saskatchewan and in the evening in Manitoba, leading to a significant swath of up to 30cm of heavy snowfall by the noon hour on Thursday.

To complicate matters further, strong winds with gusts exceeding 100km/h are expected across the Southern Prairies beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing overnight. This will very likely lead to white-out conditions, possibly even reaching the threshold to be considered a blizzard, in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba that will probably result in highway closures.

It’s also worth noting that in the warm sector, along the southern edge of the snow, there will be the possibility of a mixture of rain, freezing rain, and ice pellets which would be followed by snow as the temperatures fall. We will have more information on this risk, along with further details regarding the entire storm in our full forecast that will be posted Tuesday evening.

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Nasty Winter Storm Will Bring Mixed Bag of Precipitation, Flash Freeze Risk, and Strong Winds to Alberta Monday & Tuesday

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The forecast across Alberta for Monday and Tuesday is certainly complex. We are looking at all precipitation types; rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets; to be falling somewhere in the province and some places could see a combination of different kinds of precipitation. There is also a widespread risk of a flash freeze and to top it all off, wind gusts exceeding 100km/h are likely.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s start with the least complicated aspect of the forecast: the snow in Northern Alberta and through the Rockies.

Northern Alberta & The Rockies

Light snow has been falling in parts of Northern Alberta Monday morning and into the afternoon, trailing the previous round of widespread snowfall across the region. A narrow band of snow will persist through the afternoon and drop 5+cm of accumulating snow by the evening.

The Hrdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5Pm MT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

In the evening, widespread snow will move into Northern Alberta, including the Northern Rockies, from British Columbia. The snow will spread southeastward across Northern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta during the evening and overnight hours.

The snowfall will last for up to 8 hours and it will start to taper off along the BC border shortly after midnight. This large band of snow will exit into Saskatchewan before sunrise, but scattered areas of light snow will linger through the morning across Northern Alberta.

The area that is expected to see snow throughout Monday afternoon will end up with the greatest accumulation by Tuesday afternoon. More than 15cm of fresh snow is anticipated over this area, especially in Peace River, on top of what has already fallen from the weekend. Beyond this, the rest of Northern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta will be in the 5-15cm range and accumulations decrease moving southward. There is a slight caveat to this, which we will touch upon a bit further down.

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For the Rockies, the snowfall will spread southward during the evening and overnight. Overall, 5-15cm can be expected throughout this region. The higher elevations will approach 15cm while the valleys will be closer, or possibly even below, 5cm.

Central Alberta

Things start to get messy in parts of Central Alberta as the band of snow travels southeastward into the region.

The arrival of a warm front that crossed through Central and Southern Alberta overnight Sunday has resulted in temperatures climbing to a few degrees above the freezing mark across the region. As the snow from Northern Alberta tracks southeast through the evening and overnight Monday, and encounters this warmer air above the surface, there will be a transition over to ice pellets (sleet) and freezing rain.

This is expected to start to occur to the north of Edmonton, from Whitecourt to St. Paul. Despite the surface temperatures remaining subzero in this area, there will be enough warm air aloft for the transition to ice pellets to happen and this area could see a few centimetres of ice pellets accumulating. The caveat mentioned above is that the map of snowfall totals also includes accumulation of ice pellets in this area.

precipitation types and their corresponding temperature profiles

Moving southward, the amount of warm air aloft increases and the precipitation will change to freezing rain. The area at risk of freezing rain stretches roughly from west of Drayton Valley and Rocky Mountain House to Wainwright and Provost. The northern part of this area will likely see a combination of ice pellets and freezing rain as the thickness of the warm air aloft decreases.

The freezing rain is expected to be light and only last for an hour or two, resulting in up to 1mm of ice accretion. However, this is still enough to cause some issues when travelling on untreated roads.

Timing-wise, the ice pellets and freezing rain will start to fall as early as 7pm Monday evening and continue into the overnight hours as the band of precipitation tracks towards Saskatchewan.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 3am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Southern Alberta

In Southern Alberta, as well as in portions of Central Alberta, surface temperatures hovering around zero, and slightly above, will lead to precipitation falling as rain with a bit of wet snow mixed in. The rain will be light and scattered, broken off from the main band of precipitation, throughout the region overnight and into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, this poses a unique problem for this region.

In the early morning hours of Tuesday, a sharp cold front will start to blast southward through Central and Southern Alberta. Temperatures could plunge by up to 20°C in the span of only a few hours, resulting in a flash freeze of any rain that has fallen, as well as the snow melt from the previous day.

This flash freeze is expected to happen just in time for the morning commute for Calgary and communities to the north, so road conditions could be very poor if they aren’t treated ahead of time and maintained. The cold front will then stall around Calgary through the morning and afternoon before it continues tracking southward during the evening, bringing below freezing temperatures to the rest of Southern Alberta.

If that wasn’t enough, strong winds gusts up to, and possibly exceeding, 100km/h are possible in Southwestern Alberta overnight Monday. Luckily, these strong winds should die down by Tuesday morning.

The hrdps model showing surface temperature at 1am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The hrdps model showing surface temperature at 0am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

All in all, this incoming system will impact most of Alberta, with each region expecting to be impacted in different ways. Road conditions will deteriorate across the province at some point over the next 24 hours so make sure to plan accordingly when travelling and stay safe.

Short Blast of Snow Behind a Cold Front Will End the Week with 5-15cm of Snow for Parts of Alberta

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After some above-freezing temperatures and a mixed bag of precipitation on Thursday, a cold front will sweep through Central and Southern Alberta overnight Thursday. The arrival of cooler air will be accompanied by widespread snow on Friday. Accumulations of 5-10cm are expected across a swath of Northern and Central Alberta, as well as parts of Southern Alberta, by the end of the day Saturday.

Scattered flurries are likely Friday morning and into the early afternoon, but the snow will become more organized in the mid-afternoon. It will begin in the Grande Prairie area and then spread southeast during the late afternoon and evening. Accumulating snow will arrive in Edmonton just in time for the evening commute so the drive home may be slow.

In the late afternoon, snow will also cross into Southern Alberta from the Rockies and spread eastward through the evening. While snow is also expected to impact Calgary during the evening commute, the snow will be lighter and shouldn’t cause too many problems for drivers.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7Pm MT on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Steady snowfall is expected to continue across a large stretch of the province into the overnight hours, but it will start to taper off in the early morning. By sunrise on Saturday, most of the snow will have ended, but there will still be some lingering light snow throughout the remainder of the day.

Overall, 5-15cm of snow can be expected from Grande Prairie through Edmonton and towards the Saskatchewan border. Most of this area will be in the 5-10cm range, but snowfall totals could approach 15cm around the Grande Prairie and High Prairie.

In Southern Alberta, some localized intensification is possible Friday evening and overnight around Lethbridge and Taber, which would lead to accumulation exceeding 5cm. Otherwise, the remainder of Central and Southern Alberta and into Northern Alberta will see 2-5cm of snow, but there is the possibility of snowfall totals exceeding 5cm locally.

Winds should remain fairly light while the snow is falling so blowing snow shouldn’t be too much of a concern.

Widespread 5–15cm of Fresh Snow to Blanket the Southern Prairies Early This Week

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As we get closer to the start of the storm expected to cross the Prairies and weather models have come closer in agreement, we now have more confidence to discuss the potential impacts over the next couple of days. This storm will travel eastward along the international border, which will limit most of the snowfall to southern portions of all three Prairie provinces.

Alberta

The snow will make its way into Southwestern Alberta after midnight, gradually spreading eastward across the province during the early and mid-morning hours. It’s during this time that there is also a risk of freezing rain for communities closer to the border, but it will quickly be replaced by snow. Meanwhile the scattered flurries remaining from Sunday through Calgary to Red Deer are also expected to organize and intensify, joining the snow further to the south.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7am MT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

As we get later in the morning, there will likely be some intensification and increased snowfall rates along the Highway 3 corridor and southward, which will result in greater overall accumulation. By lunchtime, the snow will begin to taper off to the north of Calgary and then from west to east starting in the early afternoon and exiting the province completely in the evening.

A widespread 5-15cm of snow is predicted by the end of Monday across Southern Alberta and areas that experience the heavier snowfall closer to the border could be on the higher end of that range. There could be pockets where accumulation totals could approach 20cm to the south of Highway 3, but this is much more likely to occur east of Highway 36.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7pm CT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Saskatchewan

The leading edge of the snow will move into Southwest Saskatchewan in the mid-morning and it will spread eastward across the province through the day. There is also the slight risk for some freezing rain along the border to the south of Maple Creek and Shaunavon, but it should be over quickly.

The snowfall across Saskatchewan will be fairly short-lived and by the time the snow reaches the Manitoba border in the evening, it will actually start to taper off back along the Alberta border. Throughout the remainder of the evening, overnight and into Tuesday morning, the snow will gradually end from west to east.

Similarly to in Alberta, much of Southern Saskatchewan can expect at least 5cm of snow by midday Tuesday. There will also be heavier snowfall from Maple Creek to Estevan, mostly along Highway 13 and southward. This particular region will likely see snowfall totals around 20cm and Environment Canada may issue a snowfall warning to reflect this.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7am CT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Manitoba

By the time the snow makes its way into Manitoba Monday evening, the entire system is expected to shift course and start moving more in a southeast direction as it interacts with another low pressure system from the States. As a result, the steady moderate snowfall will not extend as far east through the province. Regardless, the snow will still make its way across Southern Manitoba overnight and into Tuesday morning. It will slowly start to taper off from west to east around sunrise, gradually ending for border communities in the Eastman Region Tuesday evening.

The system will also start to weaken as it makes its way into Manitoba, so the heavier snowfall expected in both Alberta and Saskatchewan is looking like it won’t be as much of a concern. There will still be a swath of the region that can expect more than 5cm of snow by the end of Tuesday, but it is likely that this won’t exceed 10cm.

It is possible that this change in direction is more subtle than showing on weather models or doesn’t occur at all. We will watch as the system takes shape and makes its way through Alberta and Saskatchewan. If it appears that the track will change from what was initially expected, it’s likely that we will update our forecast for Manitoba.

As it stands, a decent amount of snow is expected to fall across the Southern Prairies. This snow will be heavy in some areas, which will likely make travel a headache, especially on some of the busier highways. Be sure to give yourself plenty of extra time if travelling during these periods of heavy snowfall and stay safe.

What's in a Name? Choosing the Right Tires to Drive you Through Canadian Winters

Tread patterns of summer, all season and winter tires. Image courtesy of discount tire.

Now that it’s the first week of November, many Canadians are starting to think about putting winter tires on their vehicles. There have been pockets of unseasonable warmth across the country in October and with it now being the start of November, the inevitable chill of winter is in the air, and many have already seen snow fall.

While winter tires are recommended throughout the country, they are mandatory in Quebec from December 1st to March 15th, and from October 1st to April 30th on certain British Columbia highways. Additionally, studded tires are allowed almost nationwide, with the exception of residents of Southern Ontario.

Insurance companies across the country offer discounts for installing winter tires as an incentive to encourage drivers to reduce the risk of accidents. So what makes winter tires that much better in the cold and snow than summer tires and where do all season and all weather tires fit into the mix?

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With the right tools, it can be pretty easy to change your own tires!

Summer Tires

Summer tires are designed to handle both wet and dry road conditions with their wide tread and soft rubber. These tires also usually have deeper grooves that improve traction on wet roads and reduce hydroplaning, making them ideal for the wet spring and summer months.

Winter Tires

Like their name suggests, winter tires have been designed for winter roads. They are made with rubber that stays flexible at temperatures below 7°C (45°F), the magic number at which other tires become stiff and lose traction, greatly reducing their performance. Furthermore, winter tires have different tread patterns that are meant to divert water and slush to the sides, as well as little slits called sipes that increase the overall grip of the tires and helping them maintain contact with icy road surfaces. Over the past several years, tire manufacturers have started to include additional small particles, like crushed glass or walnut shells, that act as little studs on the surface of the tire for extra grip.

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Performance of All Season Tires vs Winter Tires with decreasing temperatures. Image courtesy of Discount Tire.

All Season & All Weather Tires

Some people argue that winter tires aren’t necessary if they have all season tires on their vehicle. Unfortunately, this is a slight misnomer because while these tires can handle a bit of cold and snow, they fail to handle heavier snowfalls that are common in Canadian winters. All season tires, unfortunately, sacrifice traction in wet conditions that would be found in summer tires and some of the flexibility and grip seen with winter tires in order for the tread to last longer. Realistically, these should be called 3 season tires as opposed to all season. So while they’re not the best option for winter driving in Canada, all season tires are definitely a better choice than regular summer tires.

All weather tires, not to be confused with all season tires, are a true year-round tire designed to handle Canadian winters. Unlike all season tires, these tires remain soft and flexible well below 7°C. The tread pattern on all weather tires is a combination of all season and winter tires, making them better suited for driving through heavier snow than all season tires. While they still don’t match the performance of a true winter tire, all weather tires are the best option for those who don’t want the hassle of swapping out their tires twice per year or simply do not have the space to store an extra set. Their versatility truly makes all weather tires a middle of the road tire (pun intended) for Canadian drivers.

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The three-peak mountain snowflake symbol found on winter and all weather tires. Image courtesy of Canadian tire.

When looking for tires to get you through the winter, it is recommended to chose either a proper winter tire or an all weather tire, so long as it has the three-peak mountain and snowflake symbol on the sidewall. This is an industry standard symbol which indicates that the tire meets strict regulations for winter performance; becoming mandatory on all winter tires beginning in 2018, transitioning away from just using the M+S (Mud and Snow) designation.

Note: The author formerly received payments from “Big Tire” however, this article was not funded.

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Further Reading

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/how-to/automotive/how-to-choose-winter-tires.html

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-laws-in-canada/

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-markings/

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/tires-below-45

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/winter-summer-allseason

Strong Severe Thunderstorms with Tornado Threat Possible in Central Alberta and Saskatchewan Throughout the Day & Overnight

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There is a widespread chance for thunderstorms across Alberta and Saskatchewan today, with particularly strong storms also possible in parts of both provinces. A low pressure system has been developing in the Foothills this morning and is expected to track eastward into Saskatchewan by the mid to late afternoon. The warm and cold fronts associated with this low will be the trigger behind today’s thunderstorm development.

We’ve already begun to see some weak storms moving through parts of Central Alberta and additional isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop in the early to mid afternoon through the Foothills around Calgary and southward. Together, these storms are expected cross Alberta and into Saskatchewan through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms are then anticipated to continue crossing Central Saskatchewan through the evening and into the overnight hours, before they finally begin to taper off.

Despite the storms expected to be isolated throughout the day, the risk is widespread because it has been difficult to pin down exactly where the storms will impact. There is also the possibility of some capping, which could limit thunderstorm development from even occurring.

Today’s storms, if and when they develop, could easily strengthen to become strong supercell thunderstorms, which could have the potential to produce damaging winds in excess of 100km/h, hail as large as golf balls, and heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. The risk of these storms stretches from Calgary to Wynard, SK, however, we have highlighted an area where the strongest of today’s storms could possible hit.

This area covers parts of East Central Alberta and West Central Saskatchewan, from Wainwright, AB to Warman, SK and including Saskatoon, and is the bullseye for the greatest severe weather threat this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms that impact this region could possibly produce destructive wind gusts well in excess of 100km/h, as well as hail that could be as large as tennis balls and even heavier rain with an increased chance of flooding. This area could also end up seeing a tornado or two touch down.

We will be keeping a close eye on the situation throughout the day and we will likely be livestreaming later, once the thunderstorms have developed and strengthened.

Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Threat Across the Prairies Friday into Saturday, Tornado Risk in All Three Provinces

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The same system that brought some severe thunderstorms to Central and Northern Alberta yesterday, albeit much weaker than originally anticipated, could once again trigger severe thunderstorms today. This time, however, we’re looking at two distinct areas across the Prairies where severe thunderstorms could impact.

The first area of concern is across the southern half of Manitoba and in Eastern Saskatchewan, along the provincial border.

Isolated thunderstorms could start to develop along Saskatchewan-Manitoba border, especially in the area from Hudson Bay to Cumberland House, around the lunch hour. These storms should then track eastward into Manitoba fairly quickly and they could become severe while still in Saskatchewan. If the storms remain sub-severe as the enter Manitoba, it’s very likely that they will still strengthen to become severe as they continue eastward throughout the afternoon and evening.

Additional thunderstorm development could continue southwestward, back into Southeast Saskatchewan, throughout the afternoon. These storms are also expected to track eastward across Manitoba through the evening and overnight, leading to the widespread severe risk.

It’s worth noting that thunderstorm development throughout this entire area is slightly questionable. The environment will be primed with heat, moisture and instability, but there’s the possibility that capping in the atmosphere will prevent them from even forming in the first place. If this cap breaks, however, we could be looking at some explosive thunderstorm development.

Any storms that do develop will likely have the potential to produce golf ball-sized hail or larger, damaging wind wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding. There is also the risk of a tornado forming from storms that could move through Southwestern Manitoba and into the Interlake and Red River Valley in the evening. It’s possible that the tornado risk could extend into Winnipeg, but there is some uncertainty with how far east it goes.

Simulated radar from the HRRR model shows the possible location of storms at 5pm CT, courtesy of Weather Bell.

Meanwhile, there will also be the risk for severe thunderstorms to form in Southern Alberta, along the cold front that continues to push southward through the province.

Scattered thunderstorms could start to develop as early as the mid afternoon throughout the Foothills, mostly to the south of Red Deer. While some of the storms that could develop may become severe, those that develop from Airdrie to Claresholm will be the ones worth watching today.

It’s not until a bit later in the afternoon and into the evening that this area could see the development of thunderstorms. These particular storms will likely strengthen quickly into strong, long-track supercell thunderstorms that will travel eastward across Southern Alberta through the evening. It’s entirely possible that these supercell thunderstorms could maintain their strength through the evening and overnight as they push deep into Saskatchewan, possibly reaching as far east as Moose Jaw, and maybe even into Regina, in the early morning hours.

The threat from the severe storms in Alberta and into Saskatchewan today is very similar to yesterday, with the potential for golf ball-sized hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding, and even the possibility of a tornado. However, considering that yesterday’s High Risk from Environment Canada and expectations from weather models didn’t quite materialize, we’ve opted to go with a Slight Risk for Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today. However, the possibility is still there for strong storms to develop so be mindful of any Watches or Warnings that may be issued.

Strong Severe Thunderstorms with Tornado Threat Possible in Central Alberta, Widespread Severe Risk Throughout Northern Alberta and into Saskatchewan

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Now that a warm front has brought some heat back into Alberta, active weather returns. Severe thunderstorms are possible across Northern and Central Alberta this afternoon, and into Saskatchewan later this evening. Central Alberta, in particular, could see some especially strong storms today, complete with the risk of an isolated tornado.

There have already been some scatted showers in Northern Alberta this morning, mostly in the northwest. Further development of thunderstorms is likely across the region and into Northern Saskatchewan this afternoon. These storms are expected to continue through the evening and into the early overnight hours before tapering off. It’s possible that some of these scattered storms could become severe throughout the day, with the potential for strong wind gusts up to 100km/h, toonie-sized hail, and heavy downpours.

The main area of concern for today, however, is in Central Alberta. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate in this region in the early to mid afternoon, which will gradually track eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening and overnight.

These storms likely strengthen into strong supercell thunderstorms by the late afternoon, which brings a strong risk to an area from Olds to Drayton Valley and east towards Wainright. There is the threat of hail larger than golf balls, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, heavy rain, and even the risk of an isolated tornado. These storms could be a major issue for motorists, especially between Red Deer and Edmonton, as they are expected to cross the QE2 during the evening commute.

The severe weather threat should decrease during the late evening and overnight hours, with the storms weakening as they continue along an eastward trajectory towards Saskatchewan. There is still the chance, however, that an isolated storm could remain severe during this time frame, which could still have the potential to produce large hail and strong wind gusts. The tornado risk, however, will decrease greatly.

Severe Storms Possible in Alberta & Saskatchewan Saturday with Tornado and Funnel Cloud Risk

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The cluster of severe thunderstorms that crossed through Alberta yesterday evening and overnight has been weakening as they have continued to track through Southern and Central Saskatchewan this morning. On the backside of these storms, there should be sufficient clearing in order for more severe thunderstorms to develop throughout Central and Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Thunderstorm development should begin in the early to mid-afternoon, with scattered storms in Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan. The majority of these storms in Alberta will possibly become severe, but they aren’t expected to be too strong as they track eastward throughout the afternoon. These storms could bring some strong gusts, small hail, and heavy rain to areas in their path today.

Storms that could form to the north of Medicine Hat, however, and into Saskatchewan are expected to be the stronger, with the possibility to produce damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h and hail as large as Timbits, along with heavy downpours.

The possibility of strong storms developing to the west of Swift Current early this afternoon is worth noting. These particular storms could strengthen into a severe line that extends southward to the US border through the afternoon.

There is also the risk of a tornado or two forming during the early hours of these storms’ lives, in the late afternoon and the early evening, in an area that includes Shaunavon, Swift Current, Assiniboia and just into Moose Jaw. This risk does diminish as the line pushes eastward, with the storms expected to bring a strong wind and hail threat into Regina and to the east throughout the evening hours.

Overall, the intensity of storms will be dependent on how much daytime heating can occur and how much moisture can be funnelled northward following this morning’s active weather.

The dashed line outlines the funnel cloud risk from environment Canada

Back in Alberta, more storms could kick off in the Foothills a bit later in the afternoon. These storms will likely be more organized than the scattered pop-up storms expected earlier in the afternoon. There is a chance of them becoming severe in the evening as they track eastward through Calgary and areas to the south, with the possibility of producing strong wind gusts, toonie-sized hail, and heavy rain which could result in more localized flooding.

There is also the possibility that funnel clouds could develop today southeast of Edmonton, from Camrose to Oyen. It’s important to remember that funnel clouds have the potential to touch down as weak landspout tornadoes so be alert if you’re in this area today.

Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Risk Throughout Central & Southern Alberta, Threat of a Tornado South of Calgary

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A widespread risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for today across Central and Southern Alberta, with the threat of a tornado in parts of Southern Alberta.

Thunderstorm activity will kick off in the early to mid-afternoon through a large stretch of the Foothills, particularly in Central Alberta. These will be slow-moving storms that are expected to develop from the Calgary area to Grande Prairie and could have the potential to bring golf ball-sized hail and strong wind gusts to the region. These storms are also expected to have plenty of precipitation associated with them, which could result in some localized flooding before the storms taper off in the late evening.

There is the chance for storms to also pop up around Calgary and to the south at the same time, but these storms should be slightly weaker and could be short-lived. This will then be followed by some weak storms that will cross into the area from British Columbia in the late afternoon and early evening.

Storms in this second wave are expected to rapidly intensify into supercell thunderstorms as they track east of the Rockies, with the potential to hit the area with damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and hail larger than golf balls. There is also the risk of a tornado or two developing to the south and southeast of Calgary, in an area that includes High River, Claresholm, Lethbridge, and Taber.

The storms in Southern Alberta will track much further east than those expected in Central Alberta earlier in the day. They will likely continue moving eastward towards Saskatchewan overnight, but are expected to lose some intensity during that time period.

Severe Thunderstorms Possible in Southern Alberta & Southwestern Saskatchewan Thursday, Along with Risk of Funnel Clouds

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Despite some cooler temperatures still sticking around, severe thunderstorms are likely today in Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Thunderstorms have already been making their way through parts of Southern Alberta this morning and for the most part, they’ve been fairly weak. As we progress into the afternoon, some of these storms could strengthen to severe levels as they continue tracking east-southeastward. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected to occur closer to the US border through the afternoon, which will also probably become severe. The thunderstorms will track into Southwestern Saskatchewan later in the afternoon and will continue until the late evening hours, at which time they will move south of the border.

The area with the greatest risk of severe weather today will be in deep Southeastern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, as shown in yellow on the forecast map. In this region, storms could produce strong wind gusts and Timbit-sized hail. These threats also also possible throughout the rest of Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan, shown in green, but the risk is slightly lower.

The dashed line outlines the funnel cloud risk from environment Canada

There is also the chance for funnel clouds to form today to the north of where the severe thunderstorms are expected. This will be in the area from Calgary and Olds, eastward through Drumheller and Hanna, and just crossing into Saskatchewan to include the Leader area. If you’re in this region, it’s important to remember that funnel clouds can possibly touch down as weak landspout tornadoes.

Strong Severe Storms Possible in Central Alberta & Saskatchewan, Uncertainty Further East and into Manitoba

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There are two areas across the Prairies where there is the risk of severe thunderstorms today. The difference between these two areas, however, is the likelihood of storm development, with storms in Central Alberta and Saskatchewan looking much more likely to occur than those in Eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba.

A cold front that will track through Alberta and Saskatchewan today is expected to begin triggering thunderstorm development early this afternoon in West Central Alberta. These storms should intensify into a line of strong severe thunderstorms as they approach the QE2 corridor, particularly around Red Deer.

This line of storms should maintain its strength for several hours, travelling eastward across Alberta through the afternoon. The storms will then cross into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon/early evening and continue their eastward trajectory, gradually weakening later into the evening and overnight.

Borderline destructive wind gusts of up to 120km/h are possible from Red Deer eastward towards Saskatoon as the line of severe thunderstorms move through the region. Furthermore, hail as large as golf balls and localized flooding are concerns, along with the possibility of one or two embedded tornadoes.

Additional scattered thunderstorms could pop up behind the main line in both Alberta and Saskatchewan throughout the day and continuing overnight, but these storms are expected to be weaker. For those attending the Stampede today, there is the chance for an isolated storm, but the greatest risk for severe weather will remain to the north.

Meanwhile, there is also the risk of severe thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan, along the Manitoba border, and eastward into Manitoba as the cold front makes its way into this area. In particular, parts of Southern Manitoba could be the main target of these storms.

Modelled CAPE (Convective available potential energy) as of 5PM CT highlighting southwestern Manitoba as the area with the most energy

All the ingredients for severe thunderstorms are expected to be in place today in this area, with heat and energy funnelling northward throughout the day ahead of the arrival of the front. Despite this, a strong cap will also be in place, so whether or not storms actually form remains questionable. Short-term weather models are not even showing any thunderstorms developing in this area, further cementing the uncertainty here.

IF thunderstorms end up breaking through the cap, it’s not expected to occur until the evening, but the storms could become quite strong. Large hail will be the main concern with these potential storms, with golf ball-sized or larger appearing possible. Strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall, possibly leading to localized flooding, could also be associated with storms that develop. This situation will certainly bear monitoring throughout the day.

It’s also worth noting that temperatures across the Prairies, with the exception of most of Southern Manitoba, can expect to see more comfortable temperatures tomorrow following the passage of the cold front today.

Boom or Bust: Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Might Develop Across Alberta & Saskatchewan Wednesday as the Heat Breaks

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There is a widespread threat of active weather across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan on Wednesday. This is a result of a cold front that will sweep through the region, breaking the heat and likely triggering some strong severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. However, It’s looking like a ‘Boom or Bust’ sort of day in which thunderstorms could remain capped across most of the region, but if storms do develop, they could become quite strong.

The greatest threat for severe weather will be in parts of Northern Alberta, stretching northeastward from Edson through Whitecourt and beyond the Slave Lake area, highlighted in orange on our forecast map. The environment in this area will be able to support supercell thunderstorms that could develop in the Northern Foothills beginning early this afternoon, around 12-2pm.

The storms in this area could be capable of producing very large hail, as big as standard billiards balls, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. They are expected to travel northeastward across Alberta throughout the day and into Saskatchewan overnight. These will be fast moving storms so localized flooding from heavy rain is not a concern, but it is possible that we could see a tornado or two form in this region.

Additional development of slightly weaker, but still severe, thunderstorms could extend southward towards Calgary and through Southern Alberta beginning in the early afternoon. The likelihood storms initiating, however, decreases the further south you go. If storms do end up forming through this area, they are expected to quickly track east-northeastward across Alberta and into Saskatchewan by the late afternoon.

There is also the chance that the storms could skip over Southern Alberta completely, as the cold front pushes through, and instead develop in Southwestern Saskatchewan in the late afternoon and early evening. If these storms end up developing in either province, they are expected to pose more of a wind risk than a large hail risk. Given the environment that the storms could form in, damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h are possible and a lack of moisture should limit hail to the size of quarters and smaller.

Modelled temperature anomaly for wednesday shows Temperatures 5-10°C above seasonal, courtesy of weatherbell.

On top of the severe thunderstorm threat, today will also be the warmest day of the minor heat wave in Central and Southern Alberta. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 30s across most of Southern Alberta, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year.

It’s best to limit your time outside in this heat, especially since heat exhaustion can set in fairly quickly if you’re not careful.

If you do spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

Your body loses electrolytes from sweating, so sports drinks that are high in electrolytes can help replenish what has been lost. Salty snacks are also helpful when it comes to regaining lost electrolytes.

Other tips for staying cool include wearing lightweight, light-coloured clothing and limiting direct sun exposure, if possible. Many municipalities offer public spaces with air conditioning where residents can go to cool off, especially those without central air in their homes/apartments.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.

Risk of Timbit-Sized Hail from Severe Thunderstorms Across Parts of Alberta for Canada Day

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There could be some natural fireworks in parts of Alberta today for Canada Day!

Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the Foothills early this afternoon, around 12-2pm, which are expected to travel northeastward across the region throughout the afternoon and evening. However, some storms could end up following a more eastward trajectory through the day as they interact with the ridge which has been drawing some heat into Southern and Central Alberta.

Severe storms will possibly develop into multicellular clusters that could impact a wide area, but some isolated supercells are also probable. Large hail is the greatest risk from today’s storms, up to the size of Timbits or possibly larger, along with some strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms are expected to weaken in the late evening hours, with a majority of storms dissipating by midnight.

Severe Weather Threat Extends Across the Prairies Friday with Strong Risk and Tornadoes Possible in Parts of Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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It’s shaping up to be an active day across the Prairies today, with severe thunderstorms possible across all three provinces. In fact, today brings the strongest severe weather risk we’ve seen all week.

Most of the thunderstorms expected across the region will likely remain marginally severe, stretching from the Foothills in Alberta to the Manitoba-Ontario border. However, the bullseye for the most intense storms is over Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba.

Thunderstorms are expected to kick off in parts of the Southern Foothills early this afternoon. These storms will track east-northeastward, and additional development is likely through the mid-afternoon along a broad arc stretching eastward across Central Saskatchewan and into Central Manitoba later in the evening.

These widespread storms should persist into the night across the Prairies, especially the further east you go. Some of these storms could become severe and produce nickel-sized hail, along with strong wind gusts. There is also a risk of localized flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving or training thunderstorms.

In Alberta, conditions could be favourable for funnel clouds to form. While most of these remain harmless, there is a low chance that one or two could touch down briefly as a weak landspout tornado.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing the arc of thunderstorms at 6pm MT/CST & 7PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The greatest threat for severe weather today, however, will be to the south of the main batch of storms in Sakatchewan and Manitoba. The model image above shows these additional storms having already developed in the evening. Thunderstorm development in this more volatile area is expected to begin slightly earlier, around 3-5pm. Storms in this region will track eastward, while the southern edge of the cluster in Saskatchewan will likely expand south-southwestward toward the US border.

This area is forecast to encounter a highly supportive environment for severe storms in Southeastern Saskatchewan, with the possibility of storms to rapidly develop into supercell thunderstorms. Some isolated supercells could also initiate within this environment, along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba and into Southwestern Manitoba.

The highest risk area stretches from Carlyle, SK eastward through Brandon, MB, and north from the US border to the Foxwarren radar site. Storms moving through this area could become quite strong, with the potential to produce golf ball or larger hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and possibly one or two tornadoes. Intense rainfall is also likely, making localized flooding a concern in this region as well.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing thunderstorms in North Dakota, as well as in Saskatchewan & Manitoba at 9pm CST & 10PM CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

There are a couple of factors that might limit storm strength in this region. Lingering morning rain and cloud cover could reduce daytime heating, which would decrease the available energy for storm development. Additionally, an area of low-pressure that will track through North Dakota today may pull some of that energy south of the border, weakening the storms on the Canadian side.

Regardless of how strong the storms become, they are expected to track eastward throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. By the time they reach the Red River Valley after midnight, the storms should be quite weak and likely dissipate entirely not too long after.

Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Saskatchewan & Alberta Wednesday with the Risk of a Tornado

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A widespread risk of severe thunderstorms returns to Saskatchewan today with the arrival of a low pressure system that will track through the region. A warm front that will extend from the low is expected to trigger severe thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and continuing into overnight. The greatest risk for severe storms stretches from parts of Central Alberta through a large swatch of Central and Southern Saskatchewan, but there is also a chance for thunderstorms developing in the Foothills, which could become severe.

Thunderstorm development in the Foothills is expected to begin shortly after the lunch hour as isolated cells with further development possible throughout the afternoon and into the late evening. These isolated storms could have the potential to strengthen into severe supercell thunderstorms as they travel east-northeastward. The QE2 corridor between Red Deer and Calgary, in particular, could end up seeing some severe thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of toonie-sized hail and wind gusts up to 90km/h.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

The thunderstorms further east, on the other hand, have a much greater chance of becoming severe, along with greater overall threats. As the warm front moves through the region, it is anticipated to trigger the development of severe thunderstorms along its entire length. This could begin as early as around noon, with storms continuing straight through into the overnight hours as the front tracks northeastward across Saskatchewan. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken later in the evening in the eastern half of the province, but there is the chance that the odd storm could maintain severe strength overnight.

One specific area that we will be monitoring will be along the Alberta border north to the Lloydminster and North Battleford area and from there, southeast to Regina. This is where the strongest of the storms will likely occur, which could possibly develop hail as large as golf balls, wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and potentially a tornado or two.

Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Could Hit Parts of Alberta Tuesday with Possible Timbit-Sized Hail & Strong Winds

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Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Southern and Central Alberta today. A majority of these storms are expected to be non-severe, but there is chance for severe storms to develop through the QE2 corridor, from Red Deer to almost Cardston. The storms will likely form into multicell clusters, but there is the possibility of a supercell or two developing.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to start in the late afternoon, around 3-5pm, through the Foothills. The storms could become severe for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening, as they make their way eastward, especially in the aforementioned corridor to the south of Red Deer. As we get closer to midnight, the thunderstorms are expected to gradually weaken and become sub-severe as they continue towards Saskatchewan overnight.

The main risks from today’s thunderstorms, if they do end up becoming severe, are hail that could be as large as Timbits and strong wind gusts up to 90km/h. Furthermore, the chance of a tornado forming from these storms is low, but can not be ruled out in the event of supercell thunderstorms developing.

Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 8pm MT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.

Drenching Rain to Start the Summer Across Southern Alberta with Up to 100mm Raising Concerns of Flooding

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Friday is the official start to summer and the season is going to have a really wet beginning for most of Southern Alberta and parts of Central Alberta. A low pressure system from the Pacific will move into the region and additional moisture will be drawn northward, which will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 50-100mm by Sunday morning. Some are even drawing comparisons between this incoming rainfall to the flooding rains from June 19-21, 2013.

Light rain has already begun to fall across the region Friday morning, but it will it will build throughout the day to a more steady rainfall, mostly in the Foothills. Later in the evening, the steady rain will then start to move into the rest of Southern Alberta from Montana.

The rain will intensify further beginning early Saturday morning, falling at rates that could exceed 10mm/hr, and this is expected to continue straight into the late afternoon in the hardest hit areas. Rates this high will easily lead to over 50mm of rain falling across a wide area.

Modelled Hourly rainfall rates at 5am CT Saturday, Courtesy of WeatherBell.

During this time, areas between Calgary and the International border could find themselves in a break in the precipitation, which would result in lower rainfall totals. However, there is some disagreement between weather models on whether this will occur.

The rainfall will then start to weaken late Saturday afternoon to a steady light rain before it dissipates early Sunday morning. By this point, the majority of Southern Alberta can expect to have received 50-75mm of rain and up to 100mm in the Southern Foothills. Parts of the Foothills could see well over 100mm of rain, with some models suggesting that 150-200mm is possible. This is the most extreme case, but the possibility does exist.

On top of all of the rain, wet snow is expected in the Rockies, especially at higher elevations, throughout both Friday and Saturday. Snowfall accumulations could easily surpass 10cm with the amount of moisture this system is bringing to the region.

With this amount of precipitation coming in such a short period of time, flooding is a major concern. Those who live in low-lying areas and/or near waterways should prepare for the possibility of flooding. Luckily, the snowpack in the mountains is considerably less than what it was with the 2013 floods so it’s unlikely that we are looking at a similar outcome with the incoming rainfall. The winds will also be quite strong, with gusts up 80km/h, and with the rain-soaked ground, this could lead to trees being uprooted.

Environment Canada Forecasting Severe Storm Risk Wednesday for Parts of the Prairies with Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and Flooding Threat

Environment canada Forecast for Wednesday, June 18th issued Tuesday afternoon

Environment Canada has issued its preliminary Thunderstorm Outlook for tomorrow afternoon, forecasting a Moderate threat across different parts of the Prairies. These storms will be triggered by a cold front associated with a low pressure system that will sink southward through the Prairies from the Arctic over the course of the day.

Central and Southern Manitoba and into Southeast and East Central Saskatchewan comprise the “A” area, covering from Regina eastward through Manitoba to the Ontario border. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting that severe thunderstorms could bring up wind gusts up to 90km/h, hail as large as toonies, and 20-30mm of heavy rain.

To the west, area “B” covers Southwest and West Central Saskatchewan. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting weaker storms here than to the east, with the main risks being wind gusts of 70-90km/h and up to nickel-sized hail.

The strongest severe weather threat in this forecast is in area “D”, located in Central and Southern Alberta. The main risks from the storms in this region, according to Environment, are wind gusts up to 110km/h, hail as large as billiards balls, and 25-50mm of heavy rain.

Surrounding these three main areas with Moderate threats is area “C” with Minor threat. Environment Canada is forecasting that this large area could see storms that have wind gusts up to 70km/h and pea-sized hail.