***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

Severe weather is once again in the forecast for today, with a Strong severe thunderstorm risk for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The storms today will be triggered by a low pressure system that crossed into Saskatchewan from Alberta overnight. Heat and humidity will build throughout the day in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, so by the time the low moves into this region later on, the environment will be primed for strong severe thunderstorm development.

There have been some scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms in Central Saskatchewan already today, which should clear up in the early and mid-afternoon. Then, later this afternoon, isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to start to develop from Saskatoon and into Eastern Saskatchewan, at around 3-5pm.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST/7pm CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

The storms could start off strong, particularly the ones that develop in the Saskatoon area, and are expected to strengthen further as they travel eastward, likely becoming supercellular in nature. Severe thunderstorms from Eastern Saskatchewan could move into Southwestern Manitoba as early as 4pm local time, but most models are suggesting this likely won’t happen until after 7pm. These storms will gradually lose strength after a few hours as they move through the region, becoming sub-severe by midnight.

The thunderstorms that develop closer to the American border could end up travelling along a southeasterly trajectory, which would limit the impacts of the storms from reaching the Red River Valley and Winnipeg area. There is the possibility, however, of a storm or two developing along the provincial border later in the evening which could eventually hit Winnipeg overnight as a sub-severe thunderstorm.

***Simulated Radar from the NAM model showing 1am CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

Development that initiates in the Saskatoon area will eventually cross into Central Manitoba, likely shortly after midnight, but at this point the severe risk should be diminished and the main threat will be heavy rain associated with some strong wind gusts.

The strong severe weather threat today extends from east of Saskatoon southeastward into Manitoba and into North Dakota. The severe thunderstorms in this area could end up producing hail that’s larger than golf balls, wind gusts exceeding 100km/h, and possibly a tornado.

The greatest risk for these impacts, however, is expected to be in areas along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A corridor that stretches from Yorkton, Saskatchewan to Virden, Manitoba has been specifically highlighted by Environment Canada as an area where the environment will be conducive to the development of one or two tornadoes today.