Questionable Daytime Storms Followed By More Organized Nocturnal Threat in Saskatchewan & Manitoba Thursday

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The cold front which triggered severe weather across Alberta and into Western Saskatchewan yesterday will continue its track eastward today, bringing the risk of severe weather into Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Similar to yesterday, storm development is questionable throughout the afternoon and evening, with any storms that do develop likely to become severe. There is, however, a much stronger nocturnal risk in place for some areas.

The possibility of isolated thunderstorm development will begin in the mid-afternoon and continue through the evening, starting in Saskatchewan and extending eastward into Manitoba with the gradual movement of the cold front. Weather models disagree with where and when these storms might occur and there is a distinct lack of organization with the storms that do show on the models.

If thunderstorms end up developing during this time, the environment will lead them to likely become severe. These storms could end up being capable of producing hail as large as ping pong balls and strong wind gusts up to 100km/h. There is a small chance that one or two of these storms could produce a tornado, with the risk of this increasing for more southern storms.

The greatest severe thunderstorm threat arrives after midnight, as a large cluster of storms will likely move into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba from south of the border. These storms are expected to be stronger than the ones that could develop during the day and they will track across Southern Manitoba through the early morning hours and eventually exiting into Ontario.

The nocturnal thunderstorms that move through this region may produce up to golf ball-sized hail and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. There will be a broad region of rain surrounding these thunderstorms and this could lead to some localized flooding as the storms track eastward.

Modelled temperature anomaly for Thurday shows Temperatures 5-10+°C above seasonal across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, courtesy of weatherbell.

We have also found ourselves in a bit of a heat wave across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba for the next couple of days. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low and mid 30s across parts of the region today and tomorrow, which is 5-10°C above the seasonal average for this time of year. With the humidity, it could feel closer to 40°C in some areas.

While more comfortable temperatures move into Saskatchewan on Friday and then Manitoba on Saturday, and this not being nearly as hot as it can get in the summer months, it’s important to be mindful of dealing with the bit of heat while it’s here.

If you spend a great deal of time outdoors, it is crucial to stay hydrated by sipping on water throughout the day and aiming to drink at least one cup of water every 15 minutes, continuing to do so even after you’ve gone inside. We know that there is often nothing better than a cold beer on a hot day, but remember that alcohol is actually dehydrating so make sure to drink plenty of water as well if you indulge in your adult beverage of choice.

Your body loses electrolytes from sweating, so sports drinks that are high in electrolytes can help replenish what has been lost. Salty snacks are also helpful when it comes to regaining lost electrolytes.

Other tips for staying cool include wearing lightweight, light-coloured clothing and limiting direct sun exposure, if possible. Many municipalities offer public spaces with air conditioning where residents can go to cool off, especially those without central air in their homes/apartments.

This is surely not the last we’ll see of these temperatures this summer so keep these tips in mind and have a plan in place if you must spend long periods of time outdoors in the heat.