A White Christmas Appears Very Likely for Most of Alberta With Potential Snowstorm Monday Into Tuesday

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

Unsurprisingly, a White Christmas is basically guaranteed for the Rockies into the Northern parts of Alberta. There is a significant snowpack in this area and it will likely only continue to grow throughout the week with more snowfall accumulation. For the lower elevations of Alberta into Calgary and Edmonton, it looks like a White Christmas will probably happen but it’s not guaranteed. This is due to a limited snowpack going into the weekend and temperatures several degrees above the freezing mark on both Saturday and Sunday. Calgary and Edmonton will likely have very little snow on the ground by the end of the weekend.

For those who are hoping for a White Christmas, we have good news that a system is expected to deliver a blast of accumulating snowfall to Alberta including Calgary and Edmonton between Monday and Tuesday. Between 10-20cm is possible from this storm with higher amounts along the Rockies. Calgary will likely see lower snow totals between 5-10cm though that may change. We’ll have a more detailed forecast as the event draws closer. With this storm and temperatures expected to stay below the freezing mark from Tuesday through to Christmas Day, a White Christmas is very likely.

Now we have decided to give a small zone in Extreme Southern Alberta an equal chance of a White Christmas. This includes Lethbridge and Cardston mostly because they may not see much snow from the storm early in the week and above freezing temperature until Tuesday. We will have to see how this develops in the coming days and once we get to Monday or Tuesday it should become clear if they’ll see a White Christmas or not.

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

A White Christmas Appears Very Likely Across Saskatchewan With Potential Snowstorm on Tuesday

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

It looks like a White Christmas is almost certain with snowfall already on the ground through most of Southern and Central Saskatchewan. The snowpack should be safe with only a brief window of above freezing temperatures this weekend and staying below freezing from Monday through to Christmas Day. As we head into the middle of the week, even colder Arctic air will flood into the province. Overnight lows will easily drop below the -20°C mark Tuesday night and perhaps again on Wednesday Night. The current temperature forecast across Saskatchewan for Christmas Day has temperatures within the negative single digits.

We’re also closely monitoring a potential snowstorm that could affect Central Saskatchewan on Tuesday. General snowfall totals between 10-20cm with locally as much as 25cm look possible from Kindersley to Yorkton. The track of this system is still uncertain so we’ll be waiting for a few more days until we put together a preliminary forecast. Check back later for more details!

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

A Chilly and White Christmas Appears Very Likely Across Manitoba With Potential Snowstorm Tuesday Into Wednesday

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

It looks like a White Christmas is almost certain with snowfall already on the ground through most of Southern Manitoba. The snowpack should be safe with only a brief window of above freezing temperatures this weekend and staying below freezing from Monday through to Christmas Day. As we head into the middle of the week, even colder Arctic air will flood into the province. Overnight lows will easily drop below the -20°C mark Wednesday night and perhaps again on Christmas Eve. The current temperature forecast across Manitoba for Christmas Day has temperatures within the negative teens and maybe even colder.

We’re also closely monitoring a potential snowstorm that could affect Southern Manitoba between Tuesday and Wednesday. General snowfall totals between 10-20cm with locally as much as 25cm look possible through Brandon to Winnipeg. The track of this system is still uncertain so we’ll be waiting for a few more days until we put together a preliminary forecast. Check back later for more details!

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

A Christmas Miracle for Southern Ontario As White Christmas Looks Likely in Most Areas; Potential Storm Christmas Eve Into Christmas Day

This is a PRELIMINARY outlook - we will be updating it throughout the week as we get closer to Christmas.

It has been a roller coaster start to the season across Southern Ontario with fairly mild temperatures and very little in the way of snowfall accumulation or winter storms. Although that does appear to be changing just in time for Christmas so most areas across Southern Ontario has a very good chance to wake up Christmas morning with snow on the ground.

The last weekend before Christmas will feature classic winter-like weather with temperatures near or slightly below the freezing mark and accumulating snow. The heaviest snow will be found through Central Ontario with between 5-10cm of fresh snow accumulation by the end of Sunday. As we head into the start of the week, temperatures will continue to be a few degrees within the freezing mark - likely not warm enough to melt through the existing snowpack in Central Ontario and Northeastern Ontario. Another weak system is expected to move across Southwestern and Central Ontario providing a few more centimetres overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Now with days remaining for the big day, milder air is expected to work its way into the province on Wednesday causing the temperature to rise into the mid to upper single digits. This is especially true within Extreme Southwestern Ontario around the Windsor areas with daytime highs around 7-9°C on Wednesday. The very limited snowpack in this area likely won’t survive temperatures that high so a White Christmas may not happen southwest of London. Christmas Eve will complicate this forecast even more because another day of warmer temperatures is expected on Thursday and this will also extend into Central and Eastern Ontario. A messy system likely starting as rain for most areas appears to move into Southern Ontario during the day on Thursday. If this doesn’t change, it could wash away the hope of a White Christmas for many.

Latest raw model data from the American model (GFS) showing the potential precipitation type Thursday evening (Christmas Eve) - NOTE: This is raw data and isn’t an official forecast. It will change as we get closer. We will have a detailed forecast in the coming days.

BUT not all is lost! Not only Santa Claus will be busy on Christmas Eve, but it looks like Mother Nature might deliver a Christmas miracle across Southern Ontario. The latest model trends suggest that the system affecting our region on Thursday may further intensify as cold air wraps in behind it. Rain will transition over to heavy snow late Thursday into Christmas Day. If it pans out, Southern Ontario could be looking at a fairly significant Christmas Day snowstorm with accumulation between 15-30cm somewhere in the region. Obviously, this will likely change as we get closer but it’s worth a mention at this point. Normally we’d be concerned about holiday-related travel, but with the current pandemic and recommendation for everyone to celebrate within their own household, it should have a limited impact. We’ve been cautious with our White Christmas outlook for this reason as it’s highly dependent on this potential snowstorm. We will be updating this outlook as we get closer and it becomes more certain on how the storm will affect our region.

On behalf of the entire Instant Weather team, we’d like to wish everyone a happy and joyful holiday season! We’ll continue to be here keeping you informed on any impactful weather over the holiday season and into the New Year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is much better to everyone than the dumpster fire that 2020 has been! :)

Another Messy Winter Storm Is on the Way

Valid: Saturday Dec 12 - Monday Dec 14, 2020

Click for larger image

Snow will begin moving into the province this evening, and will spread across most of the province overnight.  In the south, snow will gradually change over to freezing rain and/or pellets, as it transitions to rain.  The Fundy shore will see mainly rain again with this system.  Central and northern areas of the province is expected to see 10-15cm of snow, with some areas possibly getting 20cm.  The system should move out by  early to mid morning on Monday.

South & Central:  Precipitation will begin as snow, and gradually switch over to rain.  During the transition, there may be freezing rain &/or ice pellets before turning to straight rain.  The Fundy shore will likely see mostly rain with this system.  Some areas could see up to 10-15cm of snow, some of which will melt with the rain.  The further north you go, the more snow and less mixed precipitation and rain there will be.  Winds will range from 15-35km/h, gusting 40-60km/h (strongest winds along the Fundy coast).  Temps will range from -5 to +5*c (warmest temps will be in the south)

North:  Northern areas of the province will see mainly snow, with accumulations of 10-15cm, and some areas seeing as much as 20cm.  Winds will range from 15-25km/h, gusting 30-50km/h. Temps will range from -4 to near the freezing mark.

Wind and gusts during the snowfall could create tricky driving situations, and reduced visibility.  Please drive for the conditions and be safe out there.

Storm chip probability:  50%

~ Harry
 

Messy Winter Storm to Bring Potentially Significant Snowfall and Freezing Rain to Central and Eastern Ontario Between Saturday and Sunday

For most of Southern Ontario, the upcoming ‘winter’ storm will feel more like a fall storm with above freezing temperatures and rain starting Saturday morning. The same can’t be said for areas throughout Central and Eastern Ontario where the clash of colder air and this system will create quite the messy mess with significant snowfall through more northern parts of the region and prolonged freezing rain to the south. By Sunday, locations like North Bay and Algonquin Park could see as much as 30cm of fresh snowfall accumulation. A freezing rain threat will exist through the higher elevations northwest of the GTA, east of Georgian Bay and into the Ottawa Valley. For some areas, it could lead to a significant icing with 4-8 hours of persistent heavy freezing rain. On the warm side of the system, we’ll see general rainfall amounts between 10-20mm through Southwestern Ontario and the GTA with locally over 20mm east of Lake Huron.

Timing

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the graphic.

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the graphic.

The storm will begin to affect Southern Ontario early Saturday morning with rainfall south of Lake Simcoe (freezing rain in the higher elevations near Orangeville) and heavy snow through Central and Eastern Ontario. We haven’t put together a timeline graphic for the GTA and Southwestern Ontario as it would be redundant with the only precipitation type being rain for this event. Rainfall will be ongoing from the early morning and throughout Sunday in this area.

As we head into the afternoon, we’ll start to see a zone of freezing rain develop from around Bracebridge through Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley. Freezing rain will continue for some areas for several hours before slowly transitioning over to rain. The Dundalk Highlands including Orangeville could see over 12 hours of freezing rain which would result in significant icing. Heavy snow will continue to pile up further north through the Parry Sound and North Bay corridor. By the evening most areas will likely have switched over to some rain except to the north. Colder air will flow in behind the system causing locations like Huntsville and Parry Sound to switch back over to heavy snow overnight.

Precipitation will start to taper off Sunday morning or early in the afternoon.

This storm will be giving us a sampling of almost all the different precipitation types across Southern Ontario so we have 3 different accumulation maps for snowfall, freezing rain and rainfall.

As we’ve mentioned, the heavy snow will be contained to the more northern regions of Southern Ontario including the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula. Locations like Tobermory, Britt, Sundridge, North Bay and Algonquin Park can expect between 20-30cm of snowfall accumulation. The totals will drop as the further south you go as more freezing rain and regular rain mixes in. Between 10-20cm is possible through Northern Muskoka and into the Barry’s Bay and Pembroke. After this, the snowfall gradient will get quite tight with Bracebridge, Haliburton and Bancroft right on the line of heavy snow and will likely end up around 4-8cm of accumulation. The rest of Southern Ontario will see less than 2cm of accumulation.

With the freezing rain, there are two areas of concern with one being through Central Ontario and another encompassing the higher elevations southwest of Collingwood. This small zone that includes Shelburne in the bullseye could see extremely localized ice storm conditions with upwards of 10mm of ice accretion. Orangeville and Flesherton have the potential to see between 6-12mm of ice accretion. Please note that this is an extremely localized event dependent on elevation so a location like Shelburne could be hit hard while Angus sees very little freezing rain.

Further north into Central Ontario and Central Ontario, several hours of freezing rain is also possible in locations like Huntsville, Haliburton, Bancroft and Renfrew which may pick up between 6-12mm of ice accretion. Power outages and significant impact to travel is expected in this area throughout Saturday.

A zone extending from the eastern Georgian Bay shoreline (Parry Sound, Bracebridge) and east into the Ottawa Valley will see a few hours of freezing rain with around 2-6mm of ice accretion. Other areas through Central and Eastern Ontario like Orillia, Peterborough and Bancroft may see one or two hours of freezing rain but accretion will be limited.

Those that don’t see the wintery precipitation which includes much of Southwestern Ontario into the GTA will see instead get heavy rainfall. In most areas, this rainfall totals will range from 10-20mm although some regions east of Lake Huron including Goderich, Kincardine and Owen Sound could exceed 20mm. The rainfall totals will be lower further north as more freezing rain and snow mixes in through Central and Eastern Ontario.

Winter Storm to Impact Southern Ontario This Weekend; 20+cm of Snow and Prolonged Freezing Rain Risk Possible in Some Areas

It’s hard to believe that we’re almost into the middle of December and have really only had a few big winter storms this season. The month started with a bang as some areas south of Georgian Bay received a dumping of snow. Otherwise, the month has been fairly quiet but that will change as we head into this weekend as an approaching system is set to deliver a wintery blast to Southern Ontario. Unlike the storm we saw at the beginning of the month, this one will be a classic winter storm lasting for about a day with heavy snow to the north, freezing rain risk in the middle and heavy rain to the south.

A few days ago there was some uncertainty in the track of the system which would determine who sees what when it comes to precipitation type. We’re starting to get a better idea and it looks like the heaviest snow will be located through northern parts of Central Ontario and into Northeastern Ontario. For the rest of Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley, there is the threat of several hours of freezing rain before slowly transitioning over to rain. And then for those south of Lake Simcoe through Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Ontario shoreline this will be mainly a rainfall event. Keep in mind this track may change and would shift the forecast either to the north or south.

Precipitation will start creeping into the province early Saturday morning starting with the regions further to the west around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Aside from the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, it will come down as rain for areas south of a line from Owen Sound to Barrie and through Peterborough. Light to moderate snowfall will start spreading across Central Ontario and into Eastern Ontario around the noon hour.

An area of freezing rain will start affecting areas further south like the Dundalk Highlands, Orillia/Bracebridge, Bancroft and Ottawa. This could linger into the evening and maybe overnight in some areas with persistent moderate to heavy icing during this time. Untreated surfaces like sidewalks and rural roads will certainly become quite icy in the affected regions so travel with care. Power outages are also possible so be prepared for that.

We’ll continue to see the storm’s impact continue into Sunday with heavy snow through northern parts of the region and freezing rain from Georgian Bay through the Ottawa Valley occurring into Sunday morning. Rainfall will start to mix in for Simcoe County and maybe as far north as Southern Muskoka and the Ottawa Valley early Sunday. For those who are seeing the heavy snow, some freezing rain may mix in as the mixing line moves to the north. The precipitation will start to taper off during the afternoon on Sunday with temperatures dropping to below the freezing mark as the system moves out. This could cause some icy conditions in areas that saw the rainfall earlier in the day although looks like it’ll be gradual so a flash freeze isn’t likely.

As far as accumulation, we’re looking at around 15-30cm of snow through Sudbury, North Bay and Algonquin Park. Snow totals will drop off to the south as more freezing rain mixing in with Huntsville and Parry Sound seeing around 10-20cm of snow and a few hours of freezing rain towards the end. Southern Muskoka through Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley will see mainly freezing rain with significant ice accretion between 6-12mm and as much as 5cm of snowfall accumulation. The rest of Southern Ontario will either see a few hours of freezing rain or just all rain with rainfall totals between 10-25mm by the end of the event. Again, a shift in the track could change who sees what so stay tuned for our final detailed forecast to be released Friday evening.

Going Down, Down, Down From Here On Out! Coldest Air of the Season on the Way!

Issued: December 9, 2020 @ 11:15 PM

Updated: December 9, 2020 @ 11:15 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

It was another grayish day across the province, and we’ll still have more clouds to hang around with us for the next several days. With that said though, we will have plenty of dry days! We have a series of high pressures that will move into the area overnight and through tomorrow, this will keep much of the province dry, with some flurries and showers in coastal areas and the Northern West section of the province.

Taking a look at the current Satellite right now

We have a very large coastal storm and it is spreading low to mid level cloud cover along the coast. This cloud cover will spread through the rest of the province today and tonight, once we get into Friday afternoon we will begin seeing some clearing skies and be in for a nice weekend, however much colder air! The coldest this year thus far!

Looking at the Water Vapor Satellite, we don’t see much moisture over inland areas of the province, but a bit more moisture along the coast, so far however we are not seeing any reports of precipitation falling.

We have lot’s of fog out there tonight along much of the coast, Southern portions and even some Northern areas. Interior will have another foggy night. We have thick fog also being reported tonight, this will persist into tomorrow morning.

Looking at current temperatures this hour, we have some fairly cold air to the north. Temperatures over the mainland a few degrees either side of 0, a bit colder over Northern Interior but along the coast and Southern interior we have temperatures a few degrees above 0!

Looking at the FutureCAST taking us over the next few days. A series of high pressures will be over the province with an exception to a few low pressures that will bring some snow to the mainland and showers on the coast.

Looking at closer to our area here in Vancouver, we have a nice day today except that the clouds stick around with us, so it won’t warm up as much today, then we get into tonight and tomorrow We have a low pressure that will bring some good rainfall for for the Vancouver Area, as well as some good snow far inland!

Expect rain to start late tonight and last through tomorrow and even into Friday, Friday night we will see clearing then a nice Saturday but cold! and then another system for Sunday!

Here is what we can expect in terms of Precipitation totals through next 48 hours or so. For the Vancouver Island area, look for up to 10 or 15mm of rain on the coast, but inland much of that precipitation is in snow form! Vancouver and surrounding areas. up to 20 mm, a little over 30 mm to further north but most of that will be snow.

Here is how much snow we can expect, Vancouver Island, as much as 5 to 10cm! then Vancouver and surrounding areas, 15 to 20cm far inland, but closer to the city in the west we could see a few slushy inches.

Taking a look at the winds, the good news with the coming system is that there is not much wind, we’ll see winds increase tomorrow and Friday between 30 and 50 km/h and then quiet down to light again by Saturday. Also looking for light winds tonight and tomorrow.

Taking a look at the Vancouver & Metro forecast. it’s a fairly cloudy day today but we should see some peaks of sunshine, highs around 5 or 6. Rain and inland snow begins late tonight and lasts into tomorrow. highs still near 5. Clears up Friday Night into Saturday, and that gives us some sunshine with haze, there is a cold front that will sweep through the afternoon, highs of only 3 degrees, but much of the afternoon will be near -2!

By Sunday into Wednesday and even beyond into next weekend… nothing but clouds and rain! We could see as much as 200mm of rain in some spots by the end of next week. Highs in the 5 to 7 range with lows in the 2-5 range.

Have a great Thursday!

British Columbia Is Going to Be In for a Fantastic Light Show in the Sky!

Issued: December 9th, 2020 @ 9 PM

Updated: December 9th, 2020 @ 9 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

A CME has reached the earth and is producing light shows to some parts of the country. Auroras could potentially reach as far south as Northern US states. For us here in British Columbia, we are going to be one of the provinces that will see them!

Currently, we have a storm off the coast that is bringing some unsettled weather and clouds to parts of the province, but by tomorrow night, clouds increase and we won’t have a chance for a look tomorrow night.

By the weekend, Friday and Saturday night, skies clear on Friday, so expect many parts of the province with the exception of the coast which will be stuck in clouds. Saturday, another storm rolls in! but we see the mainland of our province still fairly clear.

Island to See the Potential for a Northern Lights Show, Especially Labrador!

Issued: December 10, 2020 @ 1:00 AM

Updated: December 10, 2020 @ 1:00 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

A CME from the sun has reached the earth and it could bring gorgeous northern lights as far south as Oregon. A forecasted Geomagnetic storm is in the cards for the next 2 nights!

But will we see some here on the Island? There are a few storms that will impact Labrador and the Island for tonight, and tomorrow night but for Friday night there will be some clearing skies enough to let Labrador see the gorgeous view of the lights and there is also a good chance for extreme Northern central parts of the Island to see the lights as well!

Saturday night! the last night of the lights to appear. This will be the best chance for everyone to get a view! Newfoundland & Labrador as a whole will be able to get a view of the lights to make for a fantastic Winter weekend night.

Nova Scotia to miss out on the Northern Lights show!

Issued: December 10th, 2020 @ 12 AM

Updated: December 10th, 2020 @ 12 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

A CME from the sun has reached the earth and it is possible that northern lights will be seen as far south as Oregon during the next couple of days.

But the question is, will the weather cooperate to make viewing possible? Well sadly the answer is no, We have unsettled weather over next 4 days that will bring nothing but clouds and precipitation.

A potential geomagnetic storm is predicted for tonight and Thursday.

Tonight, a small low pressure will bring scattered showers and flurries and plenty of clouds for the entire province, so tonight is not a great night to see the lights.

Tomorrow Night, There will still be lot’s of cloud cover, but less chance of precipitation. Good news is that there will be some areas in the province that will have clear breaks!

These counties include:

• Cumberland

• Colchester

• Hants

• Halifax East

• Guysborough

• Victoria

These counties will see the chance for a view of auroras on Thursday night.

For Friday Night & Saturday night, mostly cloudy skies will take over for the whole province again.

So best view for the mentioned counties is tomorrow night.

Active Weather Is on the Way for the Weekend

Valid: Saturday, December 5 to Monday December 7, 2020

Active weather is in store for New Brunswick over the next several days.  It will be bringing a mixed bag of conditions, including heavy rain for the southern portion of the province, and a fair bit of snow for the north.

Saturday Dec 5/20

Rain moves in along the Fundy shore, early to mid morning on Saturday, becoming heavy at times. It will continue through the day, gradually moving northward to cover much of the southern half of the province.  

Sunday Dec 6/20

Rain continues in the south, while overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, snow starts to move into the Northern half of the province.  There will be some mixing in the form of sleet in the Woodstock to McAdam, to Miramichi to Bathurst corridor, as rain transitions to snow. North of that should see mostly snow.  Gradually in the south, rain will transition to snow. 

Monday Dec 7/20

Snow will continue overnight, gradually declining as the system moves out of the province by early to mid morning.

The rain with this system will be heaviest near the Fundy shore, where rainfall totals could reach 40-60mm.

Sleet totals will vary, depending on the switch over from rain to snow. Roughly the area from Woodstock to McAdam, to Bathurst to Miramichi could see up to 2cm of sleet. The faster the switch over from rain to snow, the less sleet you’ll see, but snow totals will be higher.

North of the areas getting the sleet as noted above, you will see a fair bit of snow.  The further north, the more snow you’ll see.  Some areas North of Woodstock to Bathurst, you could see up to 40cm of the white stuff.

Winds will range from 20-40km/h, with gusts in some areas reaching to 80km/h

Please keep in mind that the snowfall combined with the winds, could create treacherous driving conditions. Hopefully you have your snow tires on already.  Be careful out there, and drive for the conditions.

Probability of storm chips:  North of Woodstock to Bathurst, 85%.  Time to get out and stock up!

~ Harry & Mike, IWNB

Wet Conditions Continue Overnight.. Perfect for All Ducks

Issued December 1st, 2020 @ 11 PM

Updated December 1st, 2020 @ 3 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Wow-what the first day of December 2020 it was!! We got broken heat records, broken rainfall records, winds over 90km/h in some locations, widespread flooding, and rising rivers. That rain will continue for several hours tonight and into the early part of the morning for the South coast, it would be late evening or Thursday morning when the rain is done in the North and Cape Breton.

Here are the latest Rainfall amounts SO FAR!:

Kejimkujik………… 94 mm

Brier Island……… 77 mm

Yarmouth…………. 72 mm

Shelburne………… 55 mm

Greenwood……… 44.2 mm

Baccaro Point…… 38 mm

Parrsboro………… 19.3 mm

Western Head…… 17 mm

Kentville……………… 14.3 mm

Malay Falls…………... 5mm

Halifax Airport…….. 4 mm

Upper Stewiacke… 0.2 mm

Into tomorrow and Thursday, Here is what we can expect for additional rainfall amounts. For the southern sections, another 30-60 mm of rainfall into tomorrow morning, PLUS another 15+ mm of rain tonight into Thursday! Central portions of the province, won’t see very much only about 5 to 15 mm and Northern portions will see 30 to 45 mm by Thursday evening, Western Cape Breton can see up to 45 mm and Eastern Cape Breton will only see 10 to 20 mm.

Here is our latest rainfall amount forecast for Tomorrow, now this does NOT account for what has already fallen since earlier today, this is additional rainfall amounts. Heaviest rain continues to be in the Yarmouth Inland, Shelburne, Liverpool and Bridgewater area where amounts of another 40 to 75 mm with local amounts of another 100 mm is likely.

Town of Yarmouth and the coast, Digby, Greenwood and up to Kentville and Halifax, Truro another 25 to 50 mm of additional rainfall or 1-2”. Not much rainfall in New Glasgow… and outside of Amherst with locally up to 15 mm expected and Northern portions of the province and Cape Breton, amounts of additional amounts up to 30 mm is expected.

Not only did we have heavy flooding rainfall, but we also had some fairly strong gusty winds! which went just barely the threshold for a wind warning criteria.

Brier Island, Yarmouth & Grand Etang all managed to reach 90 km/h or greater.

Many areas seen Gusts of up to 85 km/h.

The good news is that the strongest winds are now done with!! so all is left is the flooding rain issue. Plan on fairly light winds tomorrow, however over Northern portions of the province we will see gusts of 40 to 60 km/h stick around. Winds will increase across rest of province Wednesday night into Thursday but not as strong as we just seen today. Gusts of 40-60 km/h is as high as it may get.

From Rain & Wind to record warmth!!

For the first day of December, it was quite balmy! we had several areas getting well into the mid and upper 10’s.

Amherst……………. 18* old record: 11.5* in 2005

Truro………………….. 17* old record: 10.2* in 2005

Greenwood……….. 17* old record: 14.6* in 1985

Yarmouth…………… 15* old record: 14.8* in 2006 also broke a record for wettest December 2nd with 68.9 mm, breaking the record back in 1964 with 52.3 mm of rainfall that day that year.

Halifax Airport……. 15* old record: 14.6* in 2008

Flash Flooding Rains and Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts With Near Record High Temperatures to Roll in the Month of December

Issued: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Updated: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good mild morning on this 1st December day! Wow, can you believe it, already in December, seems time went fast, but it sure doesn’t feel like it, we didn’t have much of a fall so far.

It may be the first of December, but we are on storm watch as a large slow-moving storm is going to unleash Widespread flooding rains and Tropical Storm force wind gusts.

So far this morning, wind gusts have reached over 90 km/h, in Brier Island at 91 km/h. Yarmouth and many other areas have already climbed to 78 km/h. These winds will continue to rise as the day and night go on.

It will be Wednesday morning by the time we start to see some clearing, and even then we’re going to see more showers and periods of rain arrive Wednesday Night into Thursday. By the time it is all said and done, many areas of the South coast can see as much as 140 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere in the province, there are amounts of 30-50mm and as much as 75mm closer to Halifax.

We will get to the Forecast rainfall in just a little bit, but first, we will go through the power outages.

High winds this morning have been disrupting powerline wires and bringing some trees down. as of this morning at 4:30 AM, there are 6 active power outages with 4,275 customers without power this morning.

There are fewer than 5 customers in the dark this morning near Kemptville. Clarence East has also fewer than 5 customers in the dark. The number of customers without power goes much higher as we get towards Kentville, where over 4,220 customers are without power this morning and in Seabright this morning, there are 52 customers without power. ETA times for everyone are set for 8 AM as of right now, and all are caused by high winds.

We already have power outages in the province this morning, but lets look at the probability of them! Yarmouth, Digby, Bridgewater, Liverpool all have possible outages, which of course is already occurring, but this is for Today and tonight and through Thursday.

From Greenwood to Antigonish, there is a slight chance for more of a isolated outages. We already have large power outages in near Kentville this morning.

The reason for power outages is due to high winds and very heavy rainfall.

Speaking of rainfall, let’s get to the timing of this system!

For this morning, we are looking at very heavy rainfall for Yarmouth through Digby, this is where the rainfall rates at times can exceed 15-20mm/hr! From Shelburne to Truro and near Amherst, heavy rain will slowly move in and some moderate to light rain for remainder of the province.

As we get towards the Afternoon hours through the evening hours, this is when we see the very heavy extreme rainfall that will create some flooding problems and flash floods. Rainfall rates at times will exceed 30mm/hr. Heavy rain spreads as far as Halifax, Light to Moderate rain continues for Northern parts of the province.

even through the overnight hours we will continue to see flooding extreme rainfall amounts. as much as 25 to 45 mm/hr rain rates are possible leading to a high threat for flash flooding and rising water levels in the rivers.

By Wednesday morning, we will have seen the heaviest rain move out, however Heavy rain will continue to fall in the southern sections. and light to moderate for much of the rest of the province.

As the system slowly moves away, we’ll see clearing conditions for the late day hours in the south, some light rain and drizzle sticking around. all that heavy rain moves north impacting Halifax to Amherst and Truro. Moderate rain towards Antigonish and still light rain over Cape Breton.

By Evening and overnight Wednesday, another round of rain, mostly moderate will swing back in the southern portions of the province from Greenwood to Yarmouth. and some remaining left over showers over Northern and Cape Breton.

So how much rainfall can we expect?

This is one of the Canadian models we use, the RGEM, goes out towards 4 days. This model suggests that as much as 140mm will fall in Yarmouth with up to 100 mm in Digby and rest of the south shores. 40 to 80 mm from Halifax North and South. Then once we get towards northern portions of the province, we see rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 mm.

This is our North American Model, or “NAM” The Nam model shows that by Thursday evening, upwards of 80-90 mm can fall. with Northern parts of the province seeing only 10-20mm, except for Cape Breton where 20 to 30 mm still would fall.

One of the Ensemble weather models the ARW models, shows that up to 80 mm by Thursday evening, and up to 25 mm for Central then a lot for Cape Breton with as much as near 50 mm.

WRF ARW model ensemble showing 70-90 mm with up to 50 for central, and 20 to 40 mm over Northern and Cape Breton.

The king of models the ECMWF is suggesting also a good 60-80mm of rainfall. and much lesser amounts North.

then we have the GFS, Global Forecast System. The GFS has over 100 mm of rainfall

Lastly we have the ICON model, this shows a good 100+ mm for the south. So basically the models are split on decision of rainfall forecast.

Up to 140+mm of rain is possible!! otherwise looking at a wide swath of 75 to 125 mm! or 3-5”, could see some areas maybe getting 6” of rain! For Greenwood, Kentville, Halifax, Truro, and Amherst… look for 40 to 75 mm of rainfall by Thursday. Elsewhere in province, look for 15 to 30 mm.

Most of the highest rainfall projections are likely cause of the probability of thunderstorms!!! Risk of thunderstorms through Thursday, A light Isolated risk of severe risk thunderstorms in Yarmouth where some strong wind gusts, and pea size hail and very torrential flash flooding rains can be expected in those storms. Otherwise, a non-severe risk of storms all the way up towards Amherst.

Along with the rain is also the very high winds. because of the center of the low, the highest winds will be on the coast from Yarmouth to Digby where winds could occasionally gusts up to 105 km/h. We already seen gusts up to 91 km/h this morning in Brier Island. For everyone else, winds gusting of 70 to 80 km/h is expected.

For the month of December on the first day, it sure does not feel like it! in fact as of right now, we have temperatures as warm as 15 degrees this early morning.

Temperatures will be in the 15 to 20 range, and I do think some folks MAYBE will flirt with 20-degrees! If it does happen, it will be inland mainland areas near Kentville and Greenwood. Highs there nearing 17 or 18 is very likely.

For Cape Breton, southern parts will see up to 15 degrees, while the north stays cool with highs near 10.

Let’s take a look at the Southern Regional Forecast!

For Yarmouth, looking at some very heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, warm! 15 degrees, still mild tomorrow with more rain and showers, some clearing in the afternoon. cooler but mild! highs of 9, cloudy, drizzly and misty and cool! on Thursday highs only getting up to 6, which is only 1 degree above average. 9 on Friday under sun & clouds and 8 on Saturday with more showers! So staying fairly mild for 1st week of December! and also very wet.

For Digby, Flooding rain and thunderstorms today, 15 degrees, 9 tomorrow with sun and clouds, chance of showers on Thursday and chilly with highs of 5. 8 Saturday with sun and clouds and 6 on for Saturday with a chance of showers returning.

For Shelburne, Heavy flooding rains and embedded storms today, highs of 14. Cloudy and misty tomorrow and Thursday. highs of 9 tomorrow and 6 on Thursday. 10 on Friday with sun and cloud and 8 on Saturday with more showers.

And lastly for Queens! 13 today under heavy rainfall and gusty winds. showers tomorrow, and Thursday. 9 tomorrow, 6 on Thursday. back up to 10 Friday with sun and clouds, return to misty conditions on Saturday and 8-degrees.

Here is your Halifax 7-day Forecast!

Temperature wise…. for the first week of December it is not so bad! but it is going to be very wet and unsettled this week.

Rain today at times heavy and Gusty winds of up to 80 km/h. rainfall amounts as much as 75 mm by Thursday evening. Highs of 15

Tomorrow, still mild! 14 with more rain and wind.

we cool down on Thursday with more showers and sprinkles, remaining breezy. Highs only at 7

10 on Friday with sunny breaks returning.

Saturday is showery and mild. 8-degrees

Sunday is at 13! with another storm system possibly!! this one will need to be watched as the track is a bit close, and will be tapping into cold air, so we could be seeing a messy winter storm or a rain storm. but as of now, a chance of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Monday, Rain turns to snow! windy and turning MUCH colder! we go from 13 on Sunday to -2 on Monday, start the day at near freezing then temperatures will fall during the day. plan on wind chills into the -5’s to -10’s!

Flash Flooding Rains and Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts With Near-Record High Temperatures to Roll in the Month of December

Issued: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Updated: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good mild morning on this 1st December day! Wow, can you believe it, already in December, seems time went fast, but it sure doesn’t feel like it, we didn’t have much of a fall so far.

It may be the first of December, but we are on storm watch as a large slow-moving storm is going to unleash Widespread flooding rains and Tropical Storm force wind gusts.

So far this morning, wind gusts have reached over 90 km/h, in Brier Island at 91 km/h. Yarmouth and many other areas have already climbed to 78 km/h. These winds will continue to rise as the day and night go on.

It will be Wednesday morning by the time we start to see some clearing, and even then we’re going to see more showers and periods of rain arrive Wednesday Night into Thursday. By the time it is all said and done, many areas of the South coast can see as much as 140 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere in the province, there are amounts of 30-50mm and as much as 75mm closer to Halifax.

We will get to the Forecast rainfall in just a little bit, but first, we will go through the power outages.

High winds this morning have been disrupting powerline wires and bringing some trees down. as of this morning at 4:30 AM, there are 6 active power outages with 4,275 customers without power this morning.

There are fewer than 5 customers in the dark this morning near Kemptville. Clarence East has also fewer than 5 customers in the dark. The number of customers without power goes much higher as we get towards Kentville, where over 4,220 customers are without power this morning and in Seabright this morning, there are 52 customers without power. ETA times for everyone are set for 8 AM as of right now, and all are caused by high winds.

We already have power outages in the province this morning, but lets look at the probability of them! Yarmouth, Digby, Bridgewater, Liverpool all have possible outages, which of course is already occurring, but this is for Today and tonight and through Thursday.

From Greenwood to Antigonish, there is a slight chance for more of a isolated outages. We already have large power outages in near Kentville this morning.

The reason for power outages is due to high winds and very heavy rainfall.

Speaking of rainfall, let’s get to the timing of this system!

For this morning, we are looking at very heavy rainfall for Yarmouth through Digby, this is where the rainfall rates at times can exceed 15-20mm/hr! From Shelburne to Truro and near Amherst, heavy rain will slowly move in and some moderate to light rain for remainder of the province.

As we get towards the Afternoon hours through the evening hours, this is when we see the very heavy extreme rainfall that will create some flooding problems and flash floods. Rainfall rates at times will exceed 30mm/hr. Heavy rain spreads as far as Halifax, Light to Moderate rain continues for Northern parts of the province.

even through the overnight hours we will continue to see flooding extreme rainfall amounts. as much as 25 to 45 mm/hr rain rates are possible leading to a high threat for flash flooding and rising water levels in the rivers.

By Wednesday morning, we will have seen the heaviest rain move out, however Heavy rain will continue to fall in the southern sections. and light to moderate for much of the rest of the province.

As the system slowly moves away, we’ll see clearing conditions for the late day hours in the south, some light rain and drizzle sticking around. all that heavy rain moves north impacting Halifax to Amherst and Truro. Moderate rain towards Antigonish and still light rain over Cape Breton.

By Evening and overnight Wednesday, another round of rain, mostly moderate will swing back in the southern portions of the province from Greenwood to Yarmouth. and some remaining left over showers over Northern and Cape Breton.

So how much rainfall can we expect?

This is one of the Canadian models we use, the RGEM, goes out towards 4 days. This model suggests that as much as 140mm will fall in Yarmouth with up to 100 mm in Digby and rest of the south shores. 40 to 80 mm from Halifax North and South. Then once we get towards northern portions of the province, we see rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 mm.

This is our North American Model, or “NAM” The Nam model shows that by Thursday evening, upwards of 80-90 mm can fall. with Northern parts of the province seeing only 10-20mm, except for Cape Breton where 20 to 30 mm still would fall.

One of the Ensemble weather models the ARW models, shows that up to 80 mm by Thursday evening, and up to 25 mm for Central then a lot for Cape Breton with as much as near 50 mm.

WRF ARW model ensemble showing 70-90 mm with up to 50 for central, and 20 to 40 mm over Northern and Cape Breton.

The king of models the ECMWF is suggesting also a good 60-80mm of rainfall. and much lesser amounts North.

then we have the GFS, Global Forecast System. The GFS has over 100 mm of rainfall

Lastly we have the ICON model, this shows a good 100+ mm for the south. So basically the models are split on decision of rainfall forecast.

Up to 140+mm of rain is possible!! otherwise looking at a wide swath of 75 to 125 mm! or 3-5”, could see some areas maybe getting 6” of rain! For Greenwood, Kentville, Halifax, Truro, and Amherst… look for 40 to 75 mm of rainfall by Thursday. Elsewhere in province, look for 15 to 30 mm.

Most of the highest rainfall projections are likely cause of the probability of thunderstorms!!! Risk of thunderstorms through Thursday, A light Isolated risk of severe risk thunderstorms in Yarmouth where some strong wind gusts, and pea size hail and very torrential flash flooding rains can be expected in those storms. Otherwise, a non-severe risk of storms all the way up towards Amherst.

Along with the rain is also the very high winds. because of the center of the low, the highest winds will be on the coast from Yarmouth to Digby where winds could occasionally gusts up to 105 km/h. We already seen gusts up to 91 km/h this morning in Brier Island. For everyone else, winds gusting of 70 to 80 km/h is expected.

For the month of December on the first day, it sure does not feel like it! in fact as of right now, we have temperatures as warm as 15 degrees this early morning.

Temperatures will be in the 15 to 20 range, and I do think some folks MAYBE will flirt with 20-degrees! If it does happen, it will be inland mainland areas near Kentville and Greenwood. Highs there nearing 17 or 18 is very likely.

For Cape Breton, southern parts will see up to 15 degrees, while the north stays cool with highs near 10.

Let’s take a look at the Southern Regional Forecast!

For Yarmouth, looking at some very heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, warm! 15 degrees, still mild tomorrow with more rain and showers, some clearing in the afternoon. cooler but mild! highs of 9, cloudy, drizzly and misty and cool! on Thursday highs only getting up to 6, which is only 1 degree above average. 9 on Friday under sun & clouds and 8 on Saturday with more showers! So staying fairly mild for 1st week of December! and also very wet.

For Digby, Flooding rain and thunderstorms today, 15 degrees, 9 tomorrow with sun and clouds, chance of showers on Thursday and chilly with highs of 5. 8 Saturday with sun and clouds and 6 on for Saturday with a chance of showers returning.

For Shelburne, Heavy flooding rains and embedded storms today, highs of 14. Cloudy and misty tomorrow and Thursday. highs of 9 tomorrow and 6 on Thursday. 10 on Friday with sun and cloud and 8 on Saturday with more showers.

And lastly for Queens! 13 today under heavy rainfall and gusty winds. showers tomorrow, and Thursday. 9 tomorrow, 6 on Thursday. back up to 10 Friday with sun and clouds, return to misty conditions on Saturday and 8-degrees.

Here is your Halifax 7-day Forecast!

Temperature wise…. for the first week of December it is not so bad! but it is going to be very wet and unsettled this week.

Rain today at times heavy and Gusty winds of up to 80 km/h. rainfall amounts as much as 75 mm by Thursday evening. Highs of 15

Tomorrow, still mild! 14 with more rain and wind.

we cool down on Thursday with more showers and sprinkles, remaining breezy. Highs only at 7

10 on Friday with sunny breaks returning.

Saturday is showery and mild. 8-degrees

Sunday is at 13! with another storm system possibly!! this one will need to be watched as the track is a bit close, and will be tapping into cold air, so we could be seeing a messy winter storm or a rain storm. but as of now, a chance of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Monday, Rain turns to snow! windy and turning MUCH colder! we go from 13 on Sunday to -2 on Monday, start the day at near freezing then temperatures will fall during the day. plan on wind chills into the -5’s to -10’s!

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, December 1, 2020

See below for regional maps of the hardest hit areas.

A slow-moving winter storm is expected to continue to bring significant snowfall to parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario through Tuesday. With the threat of rapidly accumulating snowfall combined with gusty winds, we believe there is a very good chance of bus cancellations on Tuesday in some areas. The highest probability is in regions where Environment Canada has issued winter storm or snowfall warning southwest of Lake Huron and around Georgian Bay. These locations include Strathroy, Collingwood, Owen Sound and Meaford with bus cancellations almost certain on Tuesday.

Other areas around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron could see some bus cancellations with the probability ranging from 50-75%. Outside of the snowbelts, the chance of a snow day is fairly low due to the lower snow totals expected with rain mixing in near the Lake Ontario shoreline. Eastern Ontario has a near-zero chance of a snow day with rain continuing into Tuesday evening so it’s hard to see any reason for bus cancellations on Tuesday morning.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Regional Maps

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Significant Winter Storm to Hammer Parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario With Up to 50cm of Snow and Blizzard Conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday

After the first day of this multi-day winter storm, most saw just heavy rainfall with minimal impact as the rain begin to transition over the wet snow towards the afternoon and continuing this evening. Current radar as of early Monday evening suggests that most areas except for Eastern Ontario and around the Lake Ontario shoreline has switched over to snow with some accumulation possible by midnight in some areas. Those the haven’t already switched over mainly through the GTA will see wet snow beginning to mix in overnight with accumulation by the time you wake up in the morning.

The exact impact of this storm will be very location-dependent as the stalled out low-pressure system won’t have much moisture to work with by itself but that’s where the lakes will come into play and add some extra fuel to this storm. Hence it’s better to think of this storm as a snow squall event because the lake enhancement will act similarly to the lake effect bands we see where one location can get pounded with extreme snowfall totals while just down the road receives a dusting of snow.

General snowfall totals for the locations that have little lake enchantment will range from around 10-20cm with lower amounts through the GTA and out in Eastern Ontario where more rain will reduce the snow totals. While on the other hand, those very localized zones south of Georgian Bay and southeast of Lake Huron could easily double those non-lake enhanced totals with the potential for 30-50cm and perhaps over 50cm around the Blue Mountains.

We expect heavy snow to develop through Southwestern Ontario beginning just after midnight with strong wind gusts around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay between 40-70km/h. This will create blowing snow and localized blizzard conditions throughout the morning and afternoon in the London, Barrie, Collingwood and Grey-Bruce area. We should mention that this is a very localized event and our timeline graphic isn’t designed for that. For example, London will likely see blizzard conditions so we’ve included that in the graphic but Brantford won’t. It’s highly recommended that you download our app HERE and check out the hourly forecast for the most accurate information for your specific location.

The heavy snow will continue through most of the afternoon on Tuesday although it will likely become lighter later in the day and into the evening. Blizzard conditions will also come to an end later in the afternoon as wind gusts will subside just after the noon hour (later afternoon for the London area). Eastern Ontario will see rainfall throughout the day on Tuesday with some wet snow mixing in through the higher elevations around Bancroft and Peterborough during the afternoon. The Ottawa and Kingston area won’t see any flakes until late Tuesday with little to no accumulation expected.

Snowfall will continue overnight into Wednesday but it will become increasingly dependent on the lake enhancement so we’ll see some traditional snow squalls and lake effect snow develop around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Wednesday morning. This could affect the Barrie/Orillia and Northern GTA area during the Wednesday morning commute especially the Hwy 400 corridor between Newmarket and Barrie. However it will disipate later in the morning and early afternoon as the lake effect snow machine is turned off.

The theme throughout this forecast has been location location location and that will continue to be the story as we take a look at the potential snowfall totals by Wednesday. Our last forecast broke down the snowfall totals by each day so this forecast map will likely look different from our previous Tuesday’s snowfall forecast for your location. This is because we’ve added on Wednesday’s totals to Tuesday as Wednesday in itself isn’t very significant but could add an extra 10-15cm around the snowbelts mainly around Georgian Bay.

The real winners (or losers depending on if you like snow) of this storm will easily be just south of Georgian Bay through parts of Bruce-Grey counties including Meaford and the higher elevations southwest of Collingwood with snowfall totals over 50cm. Surrounding regions including Collingwood, Wiarton and Chatsworth can expect to pick up between 30-50cm with lower totals near the shoreline.

Another area that will be pummeled by the lake enhancement with be to the southeast of Lake Huron just west of the City of London. Locations such as Lambton Shores, Strathroy and Parkhill could also see between 30-50cm. The City of London, along the Lake Huron shoreline and into Simcoe County (Barrie, Midland etc.) will see some impact from the lake enhancement with totals around 20-30cm. Further north, North Bay and the Algonquin Highlands area may also see as much as 30cm.

The rest of Southwestern and Central Ontario including Kitchener/Waterloo, Windsor and Muskoka will see little lake enhancement but still the light to moderate snowfall throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday will add up. General totals outside of the snowbelts will range from 10-20cm with closer to 5-10cm through the GTA and Niagra region with more a rain/snow mix expected. Eastern Ontario will again be largely unaffected with just rainfall during the day on Tuesday and some wet snow later in the day.

If you need to travel tomorrow or go anywhere please be sure to drive according to the conditions and leave plenty of time to get to your destination. This is especially true through the areas the could see blizzard conditions where road closures aren’t out of the question so consider avoiding non-essential travel if you can (although we are in the middle of a pandemic so that’s a good idea regardless of the weather conditions).

Multi-Day Winter Storm to Affect Southern Ontario Starting Monday With Heavy Snow and Rain; Blizzard Conditions Possible in Some Areas on Tuesday

As we’ve been covering over the past few days, a prolonged winter storm is expected to move into Southern Ontario during the final days of November. This storm is quite a nightmare to forecast as we have so many variables to deal with including temperatures, precipitation type, intensity and lake enhancement just to mention a few. That means we have a lot of information and maps contained in this forecast which will hopefully help you plan your activities in the coming days.

TIMING

We’ll start with Monday morning as the system begins to enter the province starting with Southwestern Ontario during the mid-morning hours and spreading across the rest of the region throughout the late morning. For almost everyone, it will start as rain for at least the first few hours with temperatures several degrees above the freezing mark. Colder air will slowly move in from the west starting first with the Windsor/Sarnia area around 8-9 AM as the rain transitions over to snow towards the later morning hours. This transition will occur next for the Goderich and Grey-Bruce region around the noon hour beginning with the Bruce Peninsula and spreading along the Lake Huron shoreline.

As we head into the afternoon, more areas away from the Lake Ontario shoreline will begin to mix in some wet snow with a few hours of heavy snow later in the afternoon. This includes much of Central and Southwestern Ontario especially around the southern Georgian Bay shoreline due to some lake enhancement. For the GTA and Niagara region, the rain will continue into the dinner hour before it begins to switch over to snow as the colder air builds in just in time for the evening rush hour. Expect some messy road conditions for the evening so be sure to travel with caution. Rainfall will begin during the late morning hours for Eastern Ontario and continue throughout the day heavy at times. Some snow will mix in through the higher elevations later in the afternoon including Bancroft and Pembroke but most of Eastern Ontario should stay all rain into Tuesday.

ACCUMULATION

For this event, we’ve decided it is best to break the snowfall down by each day. Although it should be mentioned that total accumulation over the 3 days could exceed 30-50cm especially around the Southern shoreline of Georgian Bay. The heaviest snowfall accumulation by the end of the day on Monday is expected to be found in the higher elevations near the Quebec border including Algonquin Park, Bancroft and Barry’s Bay along with a small zone just south of Georgian Bay that includes Wiarton, Meaford and Collingwood. These areas could see as much as 12-20cm by midnight (however snow won’t end at midnight and the additional accumulation will be included in Tuesday’s forecast) with locally as much as 25cm. Outside of this area, the forecast becomes very tricky because it’s very temperature-dependent and models are still disagreeing on the exact accumulation.

Our forecast assumes no melting occurs which is pretty unrealistic given that temperatures will still be above the freezing mark when the switch over occurs so consider this the max possible accumulation - some areas will likely get much less than forecast. With that being said, the rest of Southwestern Ontario into parts of Central Ontario including Windsor, London, K/W, Barrie and Muskoka have the potential to see between 6-12cm of accumulation. Less than 6cm is expected directly east of Georgian Bay and through the Northern GTA away from the lakeshore. Downtown Toronto and the Niagra region will likely see little to no accumulation by the end of Monday only switching over the wet snow during the evening.

For those that don’t see the snowfall accumulation, you won’t exactly be spared with this system but it will come down as heavy rainfall instead. Rainfall totals for Eastern Ontario into the GTA/Niagara region will range from 20-30mm by Tuesday (we didn’t break this down by day because most of the rain will come on Monday). This is actually a fair amount of rain for this time of the year so there could be some localized flooding in low-lying areas especially since the rain will come down heavy at times. The rest of Southern Ontario can expect between 10-20mm of rainfall before switching over to snow with less than 10mm through Windsor, regions east of Lake Huron and into the higher elevations Central Ontario where less rain is expected before the switch over occurs.

As we move into Tuesday you might be thinking that this storm was more bark than bite but remember this isn’t a typical storm that is contained to a 12-24 timeframe - this will be a multi-day event. That will quickly become apparent as you wake up Tuesday morning and throughout the day as the story shifts from the messy mix that we saw on Monday towards heavy lake enhanced snow and blizzard conditions in some areas with strong gusty winds. As the low-pressure system begins to stall out over the region it will seem like a never-ending flow of moisture as bands of snow circulate the stalled-out system.

In general, the bands won’t be very strong with some light snow for most areas but the problem is that colder air will allow the lakes mainly Georgian Bay and Lake Huron to increase the snowfall rates for some surrounding regions. Current data suggests those regions will include the Bruce Peninsula through the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay like Meaford and Collingwood and another zone southeast of Lake Huron just to the west of London. These areas may see between 20-30cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of Tuesday will locally higher amounts. Strong wind gusts between 40-70km/h will also present a big issue combined with the heavy snowfall early Tuesday which may result in some blowing snow and localized blizzard-like conditions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Wind gusts will subside later in the day on Tuesday.

The remaining regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay can expect as much as 12-20cm with lesser amounts further inland with around 6-12cm for the rest of Southwestern and Central Ontario. Near the Lake Ontario shoreline, there will still be some rain continuing early Tuesday morning so total snowfall accumulation will be lower around 2-6cm. Little to no accumulation is expected for Eastern Ontario. It’s important to mention that this isn’t a final forecast for Tuesday as we’re dealing with lake-related snowfall which is very tricky to pin down. If needed, we’ll have an updated snowfall map for Tuesday posted sometime Monday. Snowfall will also continue into Wednesday which we’ll have a separate forecast for that as we get closer and more certain on what will happen.

Complex Prolonged Winter Storm Takes Aim at Southern Ontario to Start Off December; Up to 20–40cm of Snow Possible by Wednesday

DISCLAIMER: This is a very preliminary forecast for a complex winter storm over 3 days. It is subject to change as we get closer to the event and the situation evolves. We’ll have a full detailed forecast for Monday and a preview of Tuesday’s forecast out sometime Sunday afternoon or evening - including our regional timeline graphic.

It might have been a slow start to the wintery weather across Southern Ontario after we saw the season’s first significant snowfall (for most areas) last week, but Mother Nature is wasting no time! A very difficult forecast is ahead for Southern Ontario as we say goodbye to November and hello to December with an approaching low-pressure system that is expected to intensify as it moves into the Great Lakes region. The precipitation will start sometime Monday morning or afternoon depending on the location. The usual complexity this time of the year which is dealing with the freezing line and determining who sees rain and who sees heavy snow will certainly exist for this system. But there is an additional layer of uncertainty with this system as we expect it will stall out somewhere over our region and continue to pump moisture through Tuesday and into Wednesday. As we head into Tuesday, colder air will start to flow into the province which will allow the lakes particularly around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to enhance the system and add even more moisture.

With that being said, the best approach to a multi-day storm like this with vastly different conditions day-by-day is to look at the expected impacts on each day. Now, we’ll have a more detailed forecast for each day later on but at this point, we can provide a broad look at each day.

MONDAY

Precipitation will start to affect Southern Ontario sometime during the late morning or early afternoon hours on Monday. The exact precipitation type is a little uncertain but it’s a fair bet that most areas will start with some rain as temperatures are hovering several degrees above the freezing mark. Later in the day on Monday, we’ll see colder air slowly begin to invade from the west causing the rain to switch over to some moderate to heavy snowfall through much of Southwestern and Central Ontario especially in the higher elevations around the Dundalk Highlands. This includes Windsor, Kitchener/Waterloo, York Region and the Barrie/Muskoka area. Heavy precipitation will continue through the evening with the mixing line extending from around Hamilton to the northeast away from the Lake Ontario shoreline to Peterborough and up into the Pembroke area. Those around the Lake Ontario shoreline and into Eastern Ontario will continue to see heavy rainfall past midnight and overnight into Tuesday.

Tuesday

As we head into Tuesday morning we’ll see the system begin to stall out and the heaviest precipitation bands will move out over Quebec but less intense bands will rotate back in. Light rainfall will be ongoing through Eastern Ontario and light to moderate snowfall for the rest of Southern Ontario. We do expect some lake enhancement around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to develop as the precipitation associated with the system wraps back around. This will result in locally heavier snowfall particularly east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay throughout the day on Tuesday and into early Wednesday.

Wednesday

Wednesday morning is where we have the biggest amount of uncertainty as we believe the low-pressure system that was stalled out over our region for over 24 hours will begin to move out. While it’s moving out there are some indications that it could rapidly intensify yet again over Quebec just after midnight. Depending on when and where this happens it could wrap in some heavy bands of snow that may affect Central Ontario (especially around the Quebec border around North Bay) with intense snowfall during the early morning hours on Wednesday. Some of the latest data suggest this occurs as the low pressure is further north into Quebec which would have less of an effect on our region. We’ll be watching this one closely and have a better idea as we see what happens as the system moves into our area.

Putting together the potential accumulation over the three days, some areas may see between 15-30cm of snowfall accumulation or even more by Wednesday. We should note however that this is over three days so there is a big difference in the impacts of a storm that brings this amount of snow in 12-24 hours vs. over a 72 hour period. Also, some of the snow will be coming down onto ground that is quite wet after earlier rainfall so it may take a few hours until the snow begins to accumulate which would throw off the data we base our forecast on. Those in Eastern Ontario are expected to see little snowfall accumulation but could see a fair amount of rain with totals between 15-30mm by Wednesday. As we mentioned above, there’s still lots of uncertainty so take any accumulation amounts with a grain of salt. We’ve decided to put this map out to give you a rough idea of potential impacts but it’s far from a final forecast. Check back in the coming days for more detailed information as we get a better handle on what will happen.

Blizzard Warning Ended but Blizzard Conditions Will Continue Through the Night, Another 10+cm Expected and Winds Exceeding Gusts of 120+ Km/h

Issued: November 25th,2020 @ 2 AM

Updated: November 25th, 2020 @ 2 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Blizzard Warning has now ended, but that doesn’t mean that blizzard conditions still won’t occur!

The latest snowfall report from Goose Bay Labrador was 74cm and we could see another 10-15 cm of additional snow through the night.

The winds are not helping at all! we still have winds of 100-115 km/h in Gusts and some coastal areas of 120 km/h. These winds will continue through the night and ease by the morning hours.

Looking at the radar above, we still have some snow continuing in the west coast, no radar in Labrador, but there is still some heavy snow falling.

FutureCAST shows that the snow will begin to ease mid-morning hours of tomorrow as high pressure moves in. However, It does not last long! more snow moves in the late hours tomorrow. Clears out again late Thursday before another system moves in for the weekend to bring some warmer weather and bringing rain instead of snow!

From now through Thursday, we can expect another foot of snow possible on the west coast. Labrador, would see only another 5-10cm at most.