More Wintery Weather on the Way for Southern Ontario Starting Tuesday Evening; 6–12cm of Snowfall Accumulation Possible in Some Areas by Wednesday

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Another messy winter system is expected to affect Southern Ontario starting Tuesday evening and lasting throughout the day on Wednesday. However, the exact impacts will be extremely location dependent with heavy accumulating snowfall possible across Central and Eastern Ontario or a mixed bag of wet snow/rain through Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. Total accumulation through the hardest-hit areas mainly away from the lakes including locations like Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough and the Ottawa Valley will generally range from 6-12cm by Wednesday afternoon. A few localized areas may pick up as much as 15cm particularly around the Haliburton, Bancroft and Pembroke area.

As far as timing, we’ve put together a graphic for regions across Southern Ontario showing a rough idea of what to expect. This is only an estimate though and the exact precipitation and timing may vary by a few hours. Download our app HERE and check out the latest up to date hourly forecast for your exact location.

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Precipitation has already begun to affect Extreme Southwestern Ontario with the Windsor and Sarnia area staying out of the wintery mix with some rain showers ending late this evening and picking back up Wednesday morning. Those along the Lake Huron shoreline like Goderich have already started to see some wet flurries and that will continue for the rest of Tuesday with some heavier snow just before midnight and transition over the rain early Wednesday morning. London and surrounding regions will start with some mixed precipitation this evening and transition over to rain around the midnight hour with a few hours of dryness and picking back up late Wednesday morning. A similar story will unfold across the Golden Horseshoe with wet snow mixed with rain tonight before tapering off early Wednesday morning and returning as rain in the afternoon.

The biggest impact will be through Central Ontario including Barrie, Muskoka and Peterborough with snow starting late tonight and becoming more intense during the overnight. Temperatures are expected to rise just after sunrise on Wednesday so we’ll start to see some rain mixing in during the late morning and transitioning over to rain around noon. For those in Eastern Ontario, you will also get some snow but it will start a few hours later between 1-3 am with heavy snow affecting the morning commute in this area. Rain will start to mix in around Lake Ontario and the St. Lawerence River during the late morning but limited rain is expected to make it into the Ottawa area before precipitation tapers off around in the afternoon.

There will be another round of precipitation through the rest of Wednesday and into the overnight hours but it should be all rain with temperatures across Southern Ontario above the freezing mark. However, this could cause some slushy road conditions with the rain mixing with the previous snowfall.

Accumulation for most areas will range from 6-12cm (likely closer to the lower end of the range) with the potential for around 15cm in localized higher elevations through Central and Eastern Ontario. Lower totals further south including the Northern GTA, K/W and Kingston area with between 2-6cm are expected. Little to no accumulation will be found along the Lake Ontario shoreline into London, Sarnia and Hamilton with some wet snow but likely won’t stick. Windsor will be unaffected by the snow with precipitation coming down as all rain.

Storms Firing Up and on the Move! Mother Nature Is on the War Path

Issued: November.23rd, 2020 @ 4:00 PM

Updated: November. 23rd, 2020 @ 4:10 PM

IW 4PM Daily Evening Update

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Afternoon! it is 4:10 PM this Monday afternoon!

We are currently tracking a line of thunderstorms located with 3 low pressures merged together and intensifying into a strong low pressure.

The line of thunderstorms currently stretches from Cape Cod to Maine and entering New Brunswick.

Some of these storms are feisty and could produce some small pea size hail and strong damaging winds along with torrential downpours and intense frequent lightning.

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Another storm cell has just developed near Second Lake and Engineering Lake. This is a strong slammer storm with loud thunder, heavy rain, and cloud to ground lightning. If outside, please take cover and seek shelter.

Stay away from water and trees, Do not go to high ground, seek low ground, and stay inside until the storm has passed.

We have 2 Strong slammer thunderstorm over near Tusket River Wilderness Area and Kempt Snare Lake, and Halfway Lake near HWY 103.

Both of these cells are Strong slammers and are cloud to ground lightning.

These storms have been reported to produce small hail, intense lightning, loud thunder, Strong winds.

If you're in this area, please seek shelter right away! stay away from the water and trees, find the lowest ground, and stay away from high ground.

Remember, If you hear the thunder roar, go indoors!

We have another thunderstorm cell that is a Strong slammer just over French Clearwater Lake near HWY 308 North, towards Marcel Lake, Hog Lake, Springhaven Duck Lake, Mingo Lake, and Gaval Road.

This storm cell is Cloud to ground and is creating heavy rainfall, strong winds, pea-size hail, intense lightning, and loud thunder.

If you're in these areas, please seek indoors right away! Stay away from water and trees and find the lowest ground.

Stay inside until the storms have passed.

Keep checking with IW for the latest on these storms, and on the IW App where you can track the storms on our amazing radar!

for the latest track on lightning strikes! you can go to meteologix.com

An intensifying system is developing over Southern NH right now, Heavy Rain and thunderstorms are ahead and behind a cold front. Strong cold cloud tops are bubbling up off the coast of Cape Cod. This is a sign of intensification and higher cloud tops which produces those thunderstorms.

Looking at the radar, we can see those bright red and purple colors, Those are areas of intense heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and hail.

A look at the province, we have some good moderate to at times some heavy rainfall over Western sections and some lighter rainfall over Yarmouth and parts of inland Shelburne, Lunenburg, and Queens.

Rain at times moderate to heavy also working its way towards the Northern parts of the province.

We will have more on this as it develops this afternoon and evening along with the latest on the Strong Winds and continued heavy rain expected through tonight, and damaging winds over Cape Breton

You can catch the latest on the line of storms, the rough storm for tonight and tomorrow, and the latest regional 5-day forecast all at 5 O’clock.

Have a great afternoon, Be safe, Be well, Buh-Bye!

Mother Nature Has Lost Her Temper

Issued: Monday. November 23rd, 2020 @ 7:30 AM

Updated: Monday. November 23rd, 2020 @ 12:00 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good late morning! You will want to enjoy this gorgeous beautiful weather today because, as we get into tonight, tomorrow, and early parts of Wednesday, we are going to be bombarded with Rain, Snow, & Damaging winds.

We’ve got a Blizzard that will be occurring in Labrador with Snowfall warnings, Blizzard warnings, High Wind warnings, Wreck house wind warning, Winter storm warning, and special weather statements in effect!

A look at what to expect!

We’ll start the timing here at 5:30 PM this evening! Flurries begin to enter the Channel-Port Aux Basques, while rest of province will see increasing clouds.

By 8:30 PM this evening, we’ll see Flurries begin to develop and spread Eastward from Stephenville, Deer Lake, Corner Brook, and into Grand Falls Windsor.

As we get into the late evening hours near midnight, we’ll see a switch to rain from the Channel-Port Aux Basques to Corner Brook, Deer Lake, and North. Further North into St. Anthony, look for some ice mix and snow flurries.

Now entering overnight hours into Tuesday morning, Rain begins to spread far west in the south from Channel-Port-Aux-Basques to Deer Lake, Corner Brook, and parts of the Northern Peninsula. A wintry mix can be expected further North on the northern most part of the province, which includes St. Anthony.

Waking up tomorrow morning on the Island, expect widespread rainfall from Channel-Port-Aux-Basques to Clarenville and Marystown. The Avalon will remain dry for the first few hours of the start of the day.

By 8:30 AM Tuesday, Rain would now have engulphed the entire Island. Light Rain from the Avalon Peninsula to Clarenville, Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor, Corner Brook and Deer Lake and up north into St. Anthony. As the Low nears and intensifies, we’ll see heavy rainfall enter Southern sections from Stephenville, Channel-Port-Aux-Basques through the Burin Peninsula in Marystown and south-western sections of the Avalon Peninsula such as Placentia.

By time it is near Dinner time, and you have your chili put on or your fish that you caught, there will be heavy rain over much of the entire province. Exception will be Gander and Northern parts of the Island through St. Anthony.

As we enter Tuesday Afternoon, Heavy rain will now change to snow for Western sections from Deer Lake to the Channel-Port-Aux-Basques, a dry break East of there. heavy rain tapers to light rain for Northern Peninsula and Burin Peninsula. however we will continue to see heavy rainfall continue into the Avalon Peninsula.

By Supper hour, much of the system has exited, some left over remaining showers for Northern Avalon Peninsula, including St. John’s, and Northern most part of the province up towards St. Anthony. Snow will continue into the western parts of the island. from the Channel-Port-Aux-Basques to Deer Lake and a bit further up. Corner Brook is included in this.

By 8:30 pm in the evening, we can expect snow over Western sections to continue, areas of Grand Falls-Windsor eastward, will see clearing conditions. But that snow in the west will stick around through much of early Wednesday morning, which is why we do have the higher snowfall numbers in that area.

Monday Storm Timeline

Nothing much to be expected today with the exception of rain beginning in Corner Brook & Port-Aux-Basques.

Now Tomorrow is an all different story together! Depending on where you are, you could have a quick storm or a slow and punishing storm.

Rain will begin in the Avalon Peninsula by early Tuesday morning on the capes around 4 or 5 am but not in the capital city of St. John’s until 8 am. Northern Peninsula will see rain begin near 7 or 8 am. West coast is where all the action is! Rain continuing to fall through tonight all the way into 11 am in Corner Brook where it will then change to snow then heavy snow later in the evening. Rain continues and changes to snow in the Channel-Port-Aux - Basque at 11 am and continues through the night hours of Wednesday.

St. Anthony will start off as some Mixed precipitation and Ice pellets ( Sleet) then change to rain by 4 am and snow as of 7 pm tomorrow evening.

By Wednesday morning while much of the island is cleared off, Snow will still continue to fall over western sections. through at least 5 to 8 AM. For, Corner Brook, Port-Aux-Basques & St. Anthony.

Rainfall Amounts

Rainfall will be heaviest over Southern sections, Burin Peninsula and the Avalon Peninsula.

• Avalon Peninsula can expect upwards of 30 mm with local amounts up to 40 mm.

• Burin Peninsula can expect a little less rainfall, with amounts of 5 to 10 mm however up to 20 mm in local areas are likely.

• Northern and Central from Gander to Grandfalls-Windsor, amounts of 5 to 10 mm, local amount of up to 20 mm

• South West Coast. the highest rainfall with 50 to as much as 70 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere 30 to 50 mils can be expected.

The Snow! Blizzard & Blowing snow

Along with Rain is the heavy snow to the west!! A big chunk of the Island will only see a dusting to 2 cm, but winds will persist and strong enough to create blowing snow. Channel-Port-Aux-Basques and northward, as much as 12 cm, with local amounts up to 15 cm. Stephenville, Corner Brook, Deer Lake, as much as 20 cm of snow can fall by Wednesday morning.

Strong winds will give Blizzard like conditions for much of the Western portions of the Island.

For Labrador… Blizzard warnings are in place for what will be an epic monster snowstorm. Winds of 90-120 km/h and snowfall amounts of 2-4ft! drifts could be as high as 5-7ft! Travel is expected to be nearly impassable, widespread power outages are expected and plenty of wind damage as well for much of Labrador.

The Powerful winds! Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force!

• The biggest story with this storm is the winds! many wind warnings are in place!

• Avalon Peninsula can see winds exceeding 110 km/h and as high as 120-130 km/h. exception will be the northwest parts of the Avalon Peninsula where winds gusting to 105 km/h is expected.

• Burin Peninsula can expect 90 to 115 km/h Gusts, East of Marystown winds will likely exceed 110 km/h.

• Central portions of the province can expect wind gust to be 90-105 km/h

• Northern portions of the province can expect 80-95 km/h wind gust from Gander to GrandFalls-Windsor.

• Farthest Northern section of the Province towards St.Anthony, wind gust of 90-105 km/h is expected including in St.Anthony, West of St. Anthony wind gusts are very likely to exceed 110 km/h.

• Western Portions, wind gust will be very strong! with Gusts as high as 120-130 km/h towards Port-Aux-Basques. and 100-115 km/h from stephenville, Corner Brook and towards Deer Lake.

Your Windshield Wipers Will Be On High as Cat and Dog Rainfall Arrive , Screaming Wind & A Few Slushy Inches

Issued: November 23, 2020 at 12:40 AM

Updated: November 23, 2020 at 6:50 AM

11 PM Late Evening Update

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Evening! Another Storm system is on its way towards Atlantic Canada for the start of the new work week with Heavy soaking rains, Strong to Damaging Winds & yes, even some snow! with the potential for blowing snow and blizzard-like conditions.

Monday, November 23rd.

Rain will begin to spread into the Southern portions of the province early tomorrow morning from 7am in Yarmouth to 11am in Halifax and surrounding areas, This rain will be the first outer bands so it will be a light rainfall.

As we fast forward into the early evening hours, at around 5-5:30pm The rain will become more moderate over Eastern areas from Liverpool to Halifax, still fairly light through Digby & Yarmouth. Rain spreads into Northern Nova Scotia, almost entering Cape Breton.

By Late evening hours tomorrow, we will begin to see that heavier rain moves into the Southern portions from Yarmouth to Halifax by 8 pm and Light rainfall spread elsewhere in the province, a more moderate rainfall as you may notice by the amount of rain falling on the map from Halifax to Antigonish and New Glasgow, that is Moderate rainfall occurring.

Now at 11pm nearing Midnight, we see the Heavy rainfall continue in the South and spread North of the province, only Cape Breton seeing some Moderate rainfall.

Tuesday, November 24th

As we enter the early morning hours of Tuesday, The 2 systems will move a bit more quickly to taper off the showers and rain for Yarmouth and much of Shelburne, parts of Digby county as well. but light rain or showers will persist for Liverpool to Kentville and a more soaking rain for Halifax to New Glasgow and as far North as Sydney.

As many will wake up near 5 and 6am on Tuesday, the entire Southern portions will be dry and done with the rain and the rest of the system in fact! Few sprinkles in Halifax may linger and showers will persist into Truro and New Glasgow & Amherst with heavy rainfall persisting in Antigonish and Sydney.

As we get later into the morning hours, by 8 am the system begins to accelerate and much of the province would be out of the woods for any more rainfall, in fact, much of Nova Scotia with the exception of Cape Breton should have a fairly beautiful day Tuesday, despite the cold breezy winds that will stick around. Cape Breton will be seeing continued rainfall here at 8 am.

Monday Storm Timeline

Let’s now take a look at our storm timeline! We’ll start with the Southern portions first!

So in the Tri-Counties and South Shores, look for your rain to start very shortly this morning in the next few hours, between 7 and 8 am will be the first drops! and continue on to midnight.

For Mainland areas, New Glasgow, Halifax, Dartmouth, Greenwood & Kentville first drops falling near 10 or 11 am.

For Northern sections. Cheticamp and Sydney, your rain will not start until later this evening at around 8 pm. Cheticamp may see a brief period of flurries or light snow at 2 pm this afternoon from an onshore flow.

Tuesday Storm timeline

As we forward into Tuesday now! Rain will begin to end in the overnight hours by 2 or 3 am Tomorrow morning for much of everyone with exceptions to Greenwood and Kentville where your rain may linger into 5 AM.

The cold air will rush in here like racing horses at the track fighting each other for a win. This will send rain turning into the snow for Mainland and Northern sections. Halifax, Dartmouth you can see a brief period of snow from 8 am into 11 am tomorrow morning. Kentville can see quick brief snow at 8 am tomorrow morning.

Rain ends for Sydney at 10 am tomorrow morning, so for much of the province, by the time we get to mid-morning tomorrow, the storm is done with. In a way, it is, however, look at Cheticamp where the precipitation just keeps going for another 24 hours and changes to snow by 9 am and just persists into midnight. That is the back end flow of that storm taking advantage of that bitterly cold air above and just keep the snow and snow squalls persisting much of Tuesday.

Wednesday Storm Timeline

Now we are into Wednesday, Only place getting precipitation is Cheticamp and surrounding areas. Snow persists all way into early morning and ending by 6 am. So looking at a long period of snow from 9 am Tues to 6 am Wed. This will be the reason of the high snowfall amounts for this area.

Rainfall Amounts through Tuesday

Now looking at the Rainfall amounts we can expect through out Tuesday. Much of province looking to see 20-30 mm with local areas likely to receive 40 mm, Greenwood, Kentville, New Glasgow, Sydney you will all see a bit less rainfall with amounts of 10-20 mm with local amounts up to 30 mm. Then finally for Western Cape Breton.. going to be hardest hit area with up to 50 mm of rain and potential local amounts up to 70mm, and perhaps even a bit higher than that! this is before the change over to snow!

Ugh! Snowfall Amounts!

If there is any good news in this forecast, is that not everyone will see snow! Some Flurries are expected through parts of Digby and Kentville and then a widespread path of snowfall from Amherst to Antigonish and Sydney and these areas will see amounts of only up to 2cm! maybe some local amounts up to 4cm.

But the heaviest snow is Western Cape Breton! where the snow will fall for a very long period of time, into Wednesday morning. amounts of up to 6cm, some local amounts up to 10 cm.

The snow is not the bad part… it’s the wind! We are looking at very strong to damaging winds in Cape Breton along with Les Suetes! This combined with a long period of snow, at times heavy will create blizzard-like conditions!

The big bad wolf's breath… Blowing very hard! May cause some damage!

Finally last but not least! the winds! Winds will Gust pretty strong across the province, but Northern parts will see the really big winds where you can see some power outages and damage to roofs, shingles, windows, property, Christmas Decor.

Much of province will see a good gusty wind of 70 to 80 km/h this includes from Yarmouth all way up to Halifax and near Antigonish.

Amherst, New Glasgow, Antigonish… you make it up to level 4! ;) congrats! that means you get to see winds from 80 to 95 km/h.

Majority of Cape Breton with the exception of Western Cape Breton… Level 5, is where you get to see the beginning of some slight wind damage. Gusts of 90 to 105 km/h.

And Western Cape Breton, this is the jackpot! Level 6 on our Wind Guage chart! Wind Gusts exceeding 100 to 115 km/h! This is where you will see nasty blizzard conditions, Blowing snow, windswept rain, large waves, power outages, and property wind damage.

We will have more on this system throughout the morning so keep checking back with us on IW Nova Scotia on Twitter and Facebook, and of course on our app! Just download the IW app, and you can check out our amazing radar! and hour by hour forecast and your long-range and any alerts or updates issued!

More coming up later this morning on this gloomy Monday, But try and love and shine bright!

Be safe! Wear your mask! Keep your distance! & wash your hands!

Love and light from us here at IW Nova Scotia.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, November 23, 2020

A snowstorm that has brought widespread snowfall accumulation between 10-20cm throughout Southern Ontario during the day on Sunday is expected to continue to affect parts of Eastern Ontario into the overnight hours and Monday morning. This will result in a messy morning commute in Eastern Ontario particularly around the Pembroke, Renfrew and Ottawa area where the precipitation will stay mainly snow with some freezing rain mixed in after midnight.

A messy commute means there is a good chance of school bus cancellations in the hardest-hit regions. The probability ranges from 50-75% through the Ottawa Valley and away from Lake Ontario. Those closer to Lake Ontario like Kingston has a slightly lower chance because lots of rain is expected to mix in overnight which will likely reduce the accumulation to below the threshold needed for any cancellations. Now while Southwestern Ontario (London, K/W etc.) and the GTA have seen significant snowfall accumulation, we expect there to be plenty of time for road crews to clean up the roads in time for the morning and precipitation is already beginning to taper off this evening. We’ve still given these regions a 5-10% chance of a snow day but it’s fairly unlikely unless local road conditions unrelated to the weather cause some cancellations.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

First Snowstorm of the Season Targeting Southern Ontario on Sunday With Up to 20cm of Snow Possible by Monday Morning

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Usually, by now most of Southern Ontario would’ve experienced a significant snowfall event as we head into the middle of November. That isn’t true this year though as aside from regions in the snowbelts, we haven’t really seen much snow which is a result of the fairly mild fall that we’ve had this year with many areas still experiencing double-digit temperatures even into November.

Unfortunately, all good things (that is if you don’t like snow) must come to an end and it’s going to be quite the jump from early fall-like weather to something we would see in early December beginning early Sunday. That shift in the weather is courtesy of a system that is expected to move into the region Sunday morning and lasting throughout the day and into Monday morning. For most areas, it will bring the season’s first significant snowfall including much of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario and parts of the GTA that are away from the lakeshore. There is the potential for as much as 12-20cm of total snowfall accumulation by the time the storm moves out of the area on Monday morning.

STORM TIMING

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the graphic.

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the graphic.

With the first significant winter storm ahead of us for Southern Ontario, we thought this would be a good time to launch some new graphics we’ve been working on over the past few months. One of the most frequent questions we get is usually about timing for a specific location or region so we’ve broken down the province into 12 zones and outlined the precipitation timing hour by hour to help you better plan out your day. Obviously, it won’t be perfect as the forecast can change but hopefully, it’ll give you a rough idea of what to expect for your area - we tried our best to cover all the major population centres so if you can’t find your location just focus on the city on the graphic that is closest to you. Let us know what you think of the new graphic!

Back to the forecast, precipitation will begin to enter the region from south of Lake Erie beginning early Sunday morning around 7-8 am. The first areas to be affected will be the Windsor and Sarnia region starting with a rain/snow mix and transitioning to heavy snow later in the morning and into the afternoon. Snow will continue to spread to the northeast throughout the day on Sunday reaching the GTA and KW area by late morning. Those right near the lakeshore particularly around Lake Ontario and Erie will likely see rain or a mix of rain/snow due to temperatures being slightly warmer. The snow will intensify further during the afternoon as it spreads further north reaching Central and Eastern Ontario just after the noon hour. This is except for the Ottawa Valley into Renfrew which won’t see the first flakes until around 4-5 pm.

Precipitation will continue mostly in the form of moderate to heavy snowfall into the evening as we being to see it taper off in Extreme Southwestern Ontario and some rain mixing back in through the Hamilton/Niagra region. In Eastern Ontario, there is the threat of a few hours of freezing rain between 10 pm - 2 am including Kingston and Brockville (Ottawa may see an hour or two but it should remain mostly snow). The system will begin to exit our region early Monday morning with precipitation coming to an end just after midnight for most areas (Eastern Ontario will continue to see heavy snowfall into the mid-morning hours).

SNOWFALL TOTALS

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the map.

TIP: You can click on the image to open it in a new tab and be able to zoom into the map.

Now onto the tricky part of the forecast which is the expected snowfall accumulation from this system. While we’re fairly confident in the timing and track of this system the problem is where the temperature will end up during the day on Sunday and into the evening. Most models seem to suggest that areas away from the lakeshore should stay below the freezing mark throughout most of the day which would be favourable for significant snowfall accumulation. This zone extends from the Quebec border through the Kawartha Lakes and into parts of Southwestern Ontario and the northern GTA. So areas like Renfrew, Ottawa, Peterborough, Newmarket, Guelph and Kitchener/Waterloo will likely see total accumulation between 12-20cm.

The accumulation will drop off the further to the northwest you go due to the majority of the moisture being focused on those east and south of Lake Simcoe. Areas such as Barrie, Orillia and Muskoka can expect as much as 5-10cm and even less through the Bruce Peninsula and Parry Sound/North Bay.

The tricky spot is along the shoreline of Lake Erie and Ontario and those out in Eastern Ontario along the international border where some models suggest that rain or even freezing rain could mix in at times. This would reduce the potential snowfall accumulation and melt any snow that has already accumulated. We have decided to put Hamilton, Toronto, Kingston and Brockville in the 2-6cm total snowfall accumulation zone but it could easily end up much higher should less rain mix in. It’s important to mention that this area has the potential to overachieve the forecast by a big margin should it remain all snow as the moisture is there (some models have as much as 20cm through the GTA even near the lakeshore but this is unlikely). Overall, the further inland you are, the greater the chance that you see over 10cm of snowfall accumulation.

We’ll continue to monitor the latest data and issue any updated forecasts if necessary.

The accumulation will drop off the further to the northwest you go due to the majority of the moisture being focused on those east and south of Lake Simcoe. Areas such as Barrie, Orillia and Muskoka can expect as much as 5-10cm and even less through the Bruce Peninsula and Parry Sound/North Bay.

The tricky spot is along the shoreline of Lake Erie and Ontario and those out in Eastern Ontario along the international border where some models suggest that rain or even freezing rain could mix in at times. This would reduce the potential snowfall accumulation and melt any snow that has already accumulated. We have decided to put Hamilton, Toronto, Kingston and Brockville in the 2-6cm total snowfall accumulation zone but it could easily end up much higher should less rain mix in. It’s important to mention that this area has the potential to overachieve the forecast by a big margin should it remain all snow as the moisture is there (some models have as much as 20cm through the GTA even near the lakeshore but this is unlikely). Overall, the further inland you are, the greater the chance that you see over 10cm of snowfall accumulation.

We’ll continue to monitor the latest data and issue any updated forecasts if necessary.

Clearing Begins! But So Does the Big Chill and Snowflakes! *Monday Storm Coverage*

Issued: November. 16th, 2020 @ 11: 30 AM

Updated: November. 16th, 2020 @ 3:30 PM

Forecaster: Student Meteorologist James Follett

Good Afternoon! It is 3:30 PM, and we have some new updates to talk about!

Storm Surge Warning and Special Weather Statements have now ENDED.

High wind warnings remain in effect for CB.

Looking at Radar right now, We have some heavy rain occurring over Northern Nova Scotia and more clearing to the South. We also have showers and downpours over New Brunswick and Maine, These will likely fade out somewhat, but don’t be surprised if some pop-up showers arrive near the Bay of Fundy.

Looking at current Wind Gusts,

https://meteologix.com/ca/observations/nova-scotia/gusts-10min/20201116-1900z.html

Here is a look at the latest Wind Gusts, Wind Gust of 80 km/h right now in Sydney. still have Gusts of Tropical Storm force which is over 64 km/h, as high as 70 km/h. Winds Gusting to the south still over 40-50 km/h.

Looking at the FutureCAST right now. NAM model shows fast clearing through the day with the rain ending this evening or overnight in CB, However, showers are possible.

Behind the storm is a very cold arctic mass and when that taps into the leftover moisture, the cold air above, and the warm waters below. we are looking at the potential for flurries and squalls Tomorrow Night and Wednesday. Sunshine and cold air continue the rest of the week.

As of 3:30 PM there are currently 11 active power outages that are affecting 29 customers. Down from 204 four hours ago.

That will do it for this Special Weather Update

Can catch other fast-breaking updates on our Facebook page, just go to Instant Weather NS. Or to our IW app for the latest radar and forecast!

Hope to catch you back here at 4 pm and you can catch the evening updates at 6,7,9,10 & 11!

Be safe, Be well, Buh-Bye!

Plunge Into Winter After Record-Breaking Wind Storm; Snow Squalls East of Georgian Bay & Lake Huron to Bring Up to 15cm on Monday

As the wind storm that Brough wind gusts up to 120-140km/h to some parts of Southern Ontario winds down, the active weather doesn’t end for those in the typical snowbelts. This is a result of colder air flowing in behind the system that brought us the wind storm causing lake effect snow to develop off mainly Georgian Bay although scattered flurries may also affect regions east of Lake Huron. We’re already seeing some development off the lakes Sunday evening although it’s fairly disorganized and mostly coming down as rain. It will change as we head into the overnight and through Monday as temperatures drop and the bands become more organized.

We’re expecting two main bands to develop off Georgian Bay early Monday morning with one stretching from Britt and inland through Burk’s Falls/Kearney. The other band will cut across the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula and inland through South Muskoka affecting locations like Port Carling, Bracebridge and Haliburton. The band will be quite relentless locking into those areas all day Monday and not weakening until late in the evening. Now, it’s important to mention that temperatures will likely be slightly above the freezing mark for most areas so while snow will be falling it might not easily accumulate. The heavy wet snow will certainly make for hazardous driving conditions due to near-zero visibility through the affected region. Be sure to drive according to the conditions and leave plenty of time to get to your destination.

As far as accumulation, this is a tricky one because as we said, some of the snow could melt on contact due to the above freezing temperatures. This would reduce the expected accumulation somewhat although at some point the snow will begin to accumulate. We believe there are two zones including Burk’s Falls, Kearney, Port Carling, Bracebridge and Haliburton that could see as much as 12-20cm (it will likely be closer to the lower end of that range) by the end of Monday.

Surrounding regions including Sprucedale, Gravenhurst, Tobermory and the higher elevations south of Georgian Bay (Meaford. Flesherton etc.) have the potential to see between 6-12cm of snowfall accumulation. The rest of the regions east of Georgian Bay and away from the shoreline east of Lake Huron can expect between 2-6cm of accumulation. Almost all of Southern Ontario can expect to see a few flurries sometime during the day on Monday but there will be little to no accumulation outside of the snowbelts.

The threat of snow squall activity won’t end Monday night though! We’ll see the squalls weaken substantially late Monday as the wind direction shifts causing the remaining weakened squall to move southward through northern Simcoe County. This is why we have the Orillia and Midland region picking up between 2-6cm which will mostly come during the evening. Squalls could redevelop again Tuesday morning but will affect regions south of Georgian Bay and northeast of Lake Huron (Kincardine, Owen Sound etc.). We’ll continue to monitor that and issue a forecast if necessary.

Powerful Wind Storm Targeting Southern Ontario on Sunday With Wind Gusts Up to 115km/h Around the Great Lakes

After what has been quite a mild week with multiple days of record-breaking warm temperatures, it’s back to reality for Southern Ontario. We’ve seen more seasonal temperatures for this time of the year with daytime highs in the single digits and overnight lows dipping below the freezing mark over the past few days. Now, we’re monitoring a potent classic fall system that will affect Southern Ontario starting late Saturday and lasting through Sunday.

That storm will come in the form of some heavy rainfall with accumulation from 15-25mm for most areas, but more concerning is the potentially damaging wind gusts that will come with the system. Areas near the shorelines of Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario, Huron and Erie could see wind gusts reaching as high as 100-115km/h during the morning and afternoon hours on Sunday. Further inland, wind gusts will still be quite strong ranging from 80-100km/h. This will likely cause some tree branches to come down and perhaps localized power outages.

The strong winds will begin to pick up in intensity just after midnight into the early hours of Sunday with the most damaging winds expected during the mid to late morning and early afternoon on Sunday. Don’t be surprised to be woken up by the howling winds early Sunday morning especially if you live along the shorelines where the 100+km/h gusts are expected. Also, make sure to bring in anything that might blow away (ie. holiday decorations).

The hardest-hit region will be the aforementioned shorelines around the Great Lakes specifically locations such as Prince Edward County, Port Colburne, Grand Bend, Goderich and Kincardine. Expect wind gusts over 90km/h here with the potential to go as high as 115km/h (especially the northeastern Lake Erie shoreline). Also should be mentioned that these strong winds could cause some issues in areas prone to flooding from storm surge so flooding is possible. Surrounding regions including those around Georgian Bay such as Parry Sound, Leamington, Oshawa, Belleville, Kingston, Collingwood and Midland will also see wind gusts over 90km/h but should stay below 100km/h for the most part. Refer to the zoomed-in maps below for the information specific to your location. The rest of Southern Ontario (except for northern parts of Eastern Ontario) can expect wind gusts ranging from 80-90km/h with a few localized areas exceeding 90km/h. Those in the northern part of Eastern Ontario including the Ottawa Valley will see wind gusts between 70-80km/h.

The wind gusts will begin to die down as we head into Sunday evening with the lingering rainfall from the system transitioning over to wet snow as colder air floods in behind the exiting system. This will set the stage for the potential for lake effect snow next week that may bring significant snowfall to the typical snowbelts around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. It’s unclear on who exactly could see the heaviest accumulation as we’re still several days away so stay tuned for a more detailed forecast on that in the coming days.

Winter Storm! Snow for Vancouver, As Much as 2 Feet! Over Higher Terrains and Mountains

Issued: November.11,2020 @ 5 PM

Updated: November.11, 2020 @ 5 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Afternoon! We have a lot to talk about in today’s forecast! Although for many areas around the province it’s a nice sunny but cold day! We also have some showers that came through Victoria and Vancouver over the last few hours, The RGEM FutureCAST model has done a really good job in forecasting that.

Last night, I was leaning more on the NAM and ECMWF model, but now that I see the showers came about as the RGEM and GEM model forecast.

This doesn’t really change much in the forecast for the lashing winter weather we are about to get!!

A very strong and moisten storm will begin to arrive very late tonight into the day Thursday and then another storm comes in on Friday through Saturday morning.

So there are 2 separate storms and both of them will deliver something different to some parts along with Vancouver.

Storm 1: Late tonight into Thursday, Heavy snow at times for Inland Vancouver and Metro, Downtown Vancouver could even see a few slushy inches! But head far inland towards the North district of Vancouver and Port Moody to Coquitlam that is where you could see several inches of snow!

Along with the snow, is the heavy rain that would lash the coastal areas with as much as 50 to 75 mm of rain by the time that Saturday morning rolls around.

Winds will not be too strong as they will mainly stay south, but Gusts to 40-60 km/h is very likely.

Storm 2: Late Thursday night into Saturday morning, Heavy snow will continue to fall in the very high elevations and far inland. But snow will become rain over much of the entire Vancouver area, Snow in the mountains will continue to pile up, seeing as much as 2-3 feet! in lower elevations inland, up to 15-30cm is expected! The Interior could see another 5-15cm.

Rainfall will continue to fall on the coast, and become a bit heavier.

Winds will be stronger in this storm, gusting up to 80 km/h in Vancouver and Victoria and along the coast. Inland can see gusts up to 70 km/h.

So with all this rain, snow & wind, it is very likely we can see power outages.

Looking at the FutureCAST timing this out over the next 3-4 days. This is the RGEM model and it’s doing a pretty good job so far in today’s forecast!

So Nice today, other than some flurries far inland and a few showers in Victoria and Vancouver. The heavy rain and snow arrive in the early hours of the morning so expect snow for inland Vancouver, a mix to mostly rain in the Metro of Vancouver and along the coast, Victoria will stay all rain for both systems.

The next system is a bit stronger and will sink south of Victoria, this will bring wind-driven rain for much of Vancouver and along the coasts & islands. But snow at times heavy will continue to fall for far inland areas and mountainous terrain.

By Saturday morning we finally begin to clear up a little.

Here is the models’ projection on snowfall over the next 3 days into Saturday, notice the bright pink-purple like colors? that is amounts of over 2-3 feet! This will fall over the higher terrains and mountainous areas. But Vancouver Inland… 5 to 15 cm over the North District of Vancouver, a few inches for the Metro and as head far north of Vancouver District, up to 30cm can fall! Vancouver Island Inland areas could see as much as 25 to 30cm of snow, coastal areas near the water will see much less with amounts of up to 5cm.

for the rest of the province, here is what you can expect in possible snowfall.

Interior can see as much as 15cm, possibly more can not be ruled out! Further north more to the east, you will see far less snow, as the system will ne further away from you, Amounts of a few cm’s.

Here is what you can expect in my snowfall forecast!

Vancouver Island: 10-20cm with locally up to 25cm in the inland areas.

Inland Vancouver, Whistler, and Squamish to Hope you will see the highest amounts! depending on where you are, the higher up you are in the elevations the more snow you will get and those areas will see up to 50cm and lower elevations could see just 25cm.

For the Interior and much of mainland BC, look for about 5 to 10cm, however, could be some local amounts of up to 15cm.

Then we get to the Rockies into AB border, expect upwards of 30cm with local amounts near 40cm.

With the 2 combined storms, there is going to be a lot of precipitation water! now this includes all types of precipitation including snow! The areas that will see rain, such as along the coasts and in Vancouver, Vancouver Island Coastal areas. a good 50 to 75 mm of rain will likely fall by Saturday morning.

For rest of BC, look at a good 10-30 mm of water in snow form! and with super cold temperatures far north and over mountains and high elevations that will produce a very high snow ratio and that is why the amounts are higher in those areas. The colder it is, the more snow will fall!

Here is my thoughts on the rainfall amounts through Saturday, A wide swath of a good 30-50mm with locally up to 70mm! And honestly, with the models being in a good agreement on showing 50 or more, I may tick that up in tonight’s forecast from 30-50 to 50-75mm. Either way, expect a flooding rain! You are wanting to make sure to unclog your storm drains so that the water call flow down into the sewer and not get clogged and create street flooding.

So for today, expect a chance of flurries or rain showers as that has been the case this afternoon from Squamish to Vancouver and for the South-East parts of the province.

Then we get into Thursday!, There is that Low pressure just near Vancouver Island. A good soaking rain much of the coast, Very heavy snow inland and it will also be breezy at times with gusts up to 40 or 50 km/h. and from Prince George to the Okanagan looking at some Flurries.

Then we have storm #2 for Friday! Low pressure over Vancouver island will sink south and curve up the coast. A nasty snow storm for Vancouver Island, and many parts of the coast, with exception of near Vancouver will you will be all rain!

Parts of the Interior from Kamloops to Hope, can look at a steady snowfall with blowing snow and potential blizzard conditions at times.

Strong winds on the coasts will gusts upwards of 60-80 km/h and that will create some blizzard conditions.

For the rest of today, expect sun and clouds for much of everyone, except some flurries in Kelowna and even some showers in Vancouver and Victoria late this afternoon and evening. Storm arrives in Vancouver to Victoria later overnight with a mix bag in Vancouver and rain in Victoria. Highs of 4-7 degrees, and lows tonight dipping down to -5 in Kamloops to as warm as +3 in Victoria.

Here in the city, expect gorgeous sunshine today, however again there is that shower chance in the afternoon hours. highs on the chilly side! only 3-6 degrees. South-West winds on the light side at only 5-10 km/h.

Today, Sunny & cold with a chance of showers late in the day, high of 6. a slight chance of rain-snow mix overnight tonight with lows dipping down near the freezing mark at 1 degrees.

Here is your 7-day forecast, We are nice today, slightly breezy and cool with possible showers on the coast. high of 7. Colder tomorrow with a winter storm on our steps, snow inland, rain/mix on the coast. cold! highs only around 5 degrees!

Storm# 2 arrives on Friday, this time it is all rain and gusty winds to 80 km/h. That rain byway will be very heavy at times and some flooding is likely. milder at 7! lows of 4.

We continue to warm up on Saturday with lots of clouds but the precipitation stays far to the North sand South of us to not give us a bother. Sunday is also dry and slightly cool at 7. So your weekend is dry and cool but not a stormy one like Thursday & Friday so the weekend will be a great time to get out.

And getting out on the weekend will be a great idea because look what is coming for the start of the new week! YUP! another storm, this one though is all rain, lot’s of it! more flooding problems, strong winds. But the best part is that it is not a very cold rain, in fact, the temperatures will rise into the low 10’s!

I’ll have a better update on the 2 storms, and your latest updated forecast! coming up later tonight!

Have a safe Remembrance day, Remember to wash your hands, keep 6ft apart, and wear a mask! The more people that do this, the more quickly we can go back to normal!

Be safe, Be well, Buh-Bye!

You Will Have Plenty of Snow to Make Snow Cones!!!

Issued: November 9th, 2020 @ 10:30 PM

Updated: November 9th, 2020 @ 10: 30 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

The barometer is diving, the northerly winds are blowing, and the flakes are flying as of early this evening. Snow from the Fraser Valley to Osoyoos continues to pile up this evening and the snow will continue to fall well into the morning hours of tomorrow.

As much as 20+cm of snow can fall over much of the Interior and Fraser Valley from Prince George all the way down to Kelowna. There could also be amounts of up to 20-25 cm over Whistler. For the rest of the mainland, It looks like a good 6-12cm, however local amounts of up to 16cm is not out of the question.

For the coasts, Vancouver Island and the Metro of Vancouver, it looks like just a few slushy inches or up to 4cm, however further north in higher elevations of Vancouver could see local amounts nearing 6-10cm.

Vancouver Island can see as much as 10cm locally.

The white stuff is all thanks to a frontal low pressure and a low pressure over Northern Alberta, these two lows are sending cold arctic air down to the far south.

The weather will improve by Tomorrow afternoon, with scattered flurries still being a possibility, but the main snow will be done with.

High pressure takes over the province on Wednesday, but it will be located to the North West of us which means the winds will be coming from that area where it’s cold. So while it will be a beautiful day, there will also be some very chilly temperatures.

Another low pressure off the coast will impact coastal parts of the province Wednesday night into Thursday with more rain and snow & likely some gusty winds.

But a much bigger storm will arrive on Friday, with very low pressure, a pressure center of 968mb, So if you have a Barometer at home, the 968mb is way down near the bottom in the STORMY section.

Coastal parts of the province can expect a very long stretch of unsettled weather, heavy rain, snow & 100 km/h winds are likely on Friday.

There will be more on Friday’s system over the coming days.

Stays dry for many through Wednesday, CB Showers Monday. shorts weather continues!

Issued: November. 7th, 2020 @ 11 PM

Updated: November. 7th, 2020 @ 3:19 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

As forecast, It was a very warm and fairly sunny day across the province with many towns reaching above 20 degrees and breaking records!

The following towns have hit 20 degrees as of latest update at 2 AM, Sunday November 8th, 2020.

~ Western Head……….. 22.0

~ Shelburne……………….20.5 ( 21)

~ Shearwater……………..20.1

It was also very warm in many parts that have not hit 20, but was close to it!

~ Kejimkujik……………….. 19C

~ Halifax Airport………… 18C

~ Debert…………………….. 18C

~ Kentville……………………18C

~ Greenwood………………18C

Along with the heat came some breaking records once again!

~ Halifax Shearwater area broke a record gone back all the way to the olden day of 1913 where it was a very nice 19.4 degrees, today’s high of 20.1 breaks that record.

~ Kejimkujik National Park area also broke a record that has gone back since 1988 just breaking it by only .3 degrees! the old record in ‘88 was 18.5, today’s high was 18.8.

~ Shelburne smashes a record! from 2011 at 14.3 degrees with a balmy high today of 20.5 degrees

~ Halifax Airport breaks a record going back only to 2015, just 5 years ago where the record was set at 16 degrees, today’s high of 18.1 degrees smashes that record.

Temperatures across the province continue to hang on to the late spring and early summer warmth even though we know the calendar says November.

Highs for this time of year typically are around the 6 to 9 degrees range, with lows in the 0-3 degrees range. But so far lately temperatures have been running a good 10-15 degrees above normal with average lows being the day time highs and much higher.

There is very little relief in sight for these warm temperatures to pack up and leave, Tomorrow ( Sunday) will be much cooler for much of the province with the exception of Southern shores and the Tri-Counties where once again they will stay near 15 degrees.

The heat will increase on Monday but will peak on Tuesday & Wednesday with highs in many areas soaring into the low and mid 20’s, Along with the heat will be a touch of humidity which will help in increasing the dewpoints and raising the Humidex values soaring to near 30-degree levels.

The cause of the soaring heat and humidity is thanks to a very large ridge of high pressure that will be bringing in warm southerly tropical winds.

The heat looks to slowly cool down as enter the mid to late week, however highs still will be far above average with highs in the 10’s.

Monday Showers for the Island!

A small weak trough will be coming through on Monday morning and early afternoon to bring some spotty showers and sprinkles. Not a wash out! Don’t need to cancel plans, it’s just some sprinkles.

Because of the large ridge of high pressure, the clouds and sprinkles will stay well above much of the province and only effect Cape Breton.

The Sprinkles are expected to end by early afternoon.

very little rain accumulation is expected.

Looking at the FutureCAST with one of the short term forecasts, here’s the RGEM model showing a very dry pattern for us here in the province with the exception of the island Cape Breton, where some sprinkles can be expected for the first half of Monday. Otherwise, plan on a very dry week! along with continued warmth!

Blizzard Near Miss for Southern Manitoba; Risk of Prolonged Freezing Rain Sunday Through Monday

We’ve been closely monitoring a system that is expected to affect the Prairies this weekend over the past few days. Models have shifted around and at one point it looked like Southern Manitoba could’ve been dealing with a historic blizzard. Fortunately, that doesn’t appear possible with the latest data but what we will be dealing with instead is a risk of prolonged freezing rain starting early Sunday morning. The focus of the freezing rain threat will be on Southwestern Manitoba including Virden, Roblin, Dauphin and Swan River where up to 12-16 hours of constant freezing rain is possible. We could see fairly extensive ice accretion on untreated surfaced in these areas including rural roads, sidewalks, tree branches and power lines so expect hazardous driving conditions and power outages.

Light freezing drizzle is expected to develop sometime late Saturday into Sunday morning as the system approaches the region. There is some disagreement amongst the models on where the freezing line will be located but it should be somewhere around the Brandon and Neepawa area which means those in Western Manitoba will see some form of freezing precipitation (mainly freezing rain or ice pellets). Southcentral and Southeastern Manitoba including Winnipeg will be well above the freezing mark throughout this event and will see minimal freezing rain if any at all. In fact, during the day on Sunday, it will be quite mild for the Southeastern part of the province with the temperature reaching into the upper teens or perhaps even the low 20s! The temperature gradient throughout the province will be extremely tight so while Winnipeg basks in late summer-like temperatures, Brandon and Southwestern Manitoba will struggle to get above the freezing mark.

The precipitation will continue to become more intense during the morning hours and into Sunday afternoon. This is when we expect the worst conditions with very heavy freezing rain occurring during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. As we mentioned above, the temperature gradient will be very tight so there won’t be much distance between locations that see major impacts from the freezing rain compared to those that warm up enough to switch over to regular rain before the heavier precipitation arrives. This will be very true for locations around the Brandon area because models disagree on the exact temperature and how quickly it will warm up. The consensus is that Brandon will rise above the freezing mark just after the noon hour but if this doesn’t happen quickly enough then they could see way more ice accretion than forecasted.

It looks like the freezing line will stabilize somewhere around Virden through Peguis. Areas north of this will see mainly freezing rain while those to the south could see some freezing rain Sunday morning but will switch over to regular rain as we get into the afternoon. Further north, the storm will bring heavy snowfall to Northern Manitoba including locations such as Flin Flon, Thompson and Port Nelson could be dealing with as much as 30-50cm of snowfall by Monday. Strong winds will also be accompanied by heavy snowfall with blowing snow and blizzard-like conditions likely between Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Precipitation will begin to taper off early afternoon on Monday although could linger around for the northern part of the province until late Monday evening.

Just a quick mention that while Southern Manitoba is missing a potential blizzard, the same can’t be said for those throughout Saskatchewan. We’re expecting widespread accumulation between 30-50cm for much of Central Saskatchewan by Monday. View our Saskatchewan forecast HERE.

Record-Breaking Blizzard Takes Aim at Saskatchewan This Weekend; Up to 50cm of Snow Possible by Monday

It has been a fairly quiet start to the winter across much of Saskatchewan but that is about to change substantially as we watch the potential for a dangerous blizzard that will affect much of Southern and Central Saskatchewan this weekend. Wind gusts up to 50=75km/h combined with intense snowfall rates will produce blowing snow and causing near-zero visibility out on the roads with the worst conditions expected throughout the day on Sunday.

It’s quite possible that this storm could be a record-breaker with widespread snowfall totals that we haven’t seen in quite a long time. The hardest-hit regions could see as much as 30-50cm of snow over the next few days and that might even be a low estimate. It’s not out of the question that some areas pick up 60 or even 75cm in localized regions. Outside of the heavy snowfall, there is also the potential for several hours of an ice pellet and freezing rain mix in Southeastern Saskatchewan late Sunday into Monday morning which could lead to a light coating of ice on untreated surfaces and icy driving conditions.

We expect the first round of snowfall to begin early Saturday morning with some light to moderate snowfall moving into the Western part of the province from Alberta. This will continue into the day on Saturday but will mainly affect the central part of our regions such as Kindersley, Saskatoon and Prince Albert where the heavier bands of snow will be located. The first round of snow isn’t expected to bring much snowfall to the more southern part of Saskatchewan, but the second round won’t be as forgiving so don’t think it’s over when you see little accumulation by the end of Saturday.

As we head into Sunday morning this is when conditions will really start to deteriorate as we see the main system track into the province and the wind starts to pick up. Very heavy snow will stretch from Southwestern Saskatchewan through the southcentral region (Moose Jaw etc.) and into the Hudson Bay area starting Sunday afternoon. Current indications suggest that those in the southeastern corner of the province including Regina, Weyburn and Yorkton could start with a few hours of ice pellets or freezing rain into Sunday evening although it’ll begin to transition over to heavy snow from west to east.

By Sunday evening, conditions will be downright dangerous with snowfall rapidly accumulating combined with strong wind gusts through Southern Saskatchewan. We will likely see some highway closures due to the blowing snow and whiteout conditions so if possible, consider staying home until conditions improve on Monday. The system will begin to taper off during the early morning hours on Monday as it moves off into Northern Manitoba and should be fully done by the noon hour.

When it comes to total snowfall accumulation by Monday, there will be a wide swath from Shaunavon, Moose Jaw, Saskatoon and Hudson Bay that picks up generally between 30-50cm of snow. As we mentioned above, the potential for some areas to overachieve that forecast and see as much as 60-75cm is there. Now, the next zone that includes the Regina area is tricky to forecast given that they’ll initially start with some ice pellets. How fast the ice pellets turn over to snow will determine exactly how much snowfall that region receives. At this point, we believe it will hold the totals below the 30cm mark for Regina so we have them in the 20-30cm zone but if they switch over quicker than expected then up to 40cm isn’t out of the question for them.

Snow totals will be lower the further north you go due to the lack of precipitation and towards the southeast corner of the province where freezing rain will be the more predominant precipitation type. On the topic of freezing rain, several hours of freezing rain which could be heavy at times is expected through the Estevan and Moosomin area during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. Up to 3-6mm of ice accretion is possible in this area which combined with the strong wind gusts could bring down tree branches and cause localized power outages along with icy roads.

Major Snowstorm on the Horizon for Southern Alberta This Weekend; Blizzard Conditions and Up to 30–50cm of Snow Possible

Winter is getting well underway across Alberta and that will continue to be true as we head into a very active weekend with multiple rounds of snowfall blasting parts of Southern Alberta. The worst conditions are expected late Saturday into Sunday as a strong low-pressure system tracks into Saskatchewan with very heavy snow recaching into Southern Alberta. Wind gusts between 50-75km/h are also expected to develop at the same time which no doubt will create hazardous driving conditions out on the roads due to blowing snow. The criteria for a blizzard may be reached in areas such as Lethbridge, Taber, Brooks and Medicine Hat creating whiteout conditions. When all is said and done, we’re looking at as much as 30-50cm of snowfall accumulation by Monday in the above-mentioned regions with local amounts potentially exceeding 50cm in the higher elevations around the Pincher Creek and Cardston area.

Wet snowfall mixed with rain has already started to affect areas near the International border and that is expected to linger into Saturday as temperatures hover a few degrees above the freezing mark. At this point, accumulation will be fairly light given that it will be wet snow and most of it will melt on contact. The exception to this is the higher elevations southwest of Lethbridge that are already near the freezing mark and is expected to remain that way throughout the weekend. Further to the north, the Edmonton and Lloydminster area will see moderate snowfall during the day on Saturday from this first round and the temperature will be several degrees below the freezing mark so it should have no problem accumulating. We expect this first round of snow to move off into Central Saskatchewan sometime during the evening hours on Saturday as a more potent round approaches from the south. Accumulation after the first round will generally range from 10-15cm including Edmonton and less near the border where some of the snow will melt with that Pincher Creek and Cardston zone seeing over 20cm.

You might be thinking that this ‘storm’ isn’t that bad by the time you get to Saturday evening but don’t be fooled! The worst is yet to come as temperatures plunge overnight Saturday with the snowfall rate picking up as heavier bands of precipitation reach the southern part of the province. This is also when we’ll see wind gusts start to increase reaching 50-75km/h around the midnight hour. These gusts will continue through Sunday morning and afternoon as the snow only continues to get heavier. Travel is strongly discouraged during the day on Sunday in the hardest-hit regions as near-zero visibility on the roads along with rapidly accumulating snowfall will be occurring during this time. Conditions will begin to slowly improve late Sunday from west to east with the extreme southeast corner of the province (Medicine Hat area) being the last region to see conditions improve. The system will fully move out of Alberta by midnight leading to a clear start to the week as you wake up Monday morning to clean up.

As far as accumulation goes, totals for the entire weekend including both rounds of precipitation will vary significantly throughout the province. We expect the highest totals in a zone around the US border including Pincher Creek and Medicine Hat where the accumulation will range from 30-50cm and potentially more than 50cm in some localized areas. Surrounding regions including Claresholm, Lethbridge and Brooks will likely top out at around 20-30cm although the potential is there for this zone, in particular, to overachieve the forecast depending on where the bands of snow end up. A fairly expansive zone stretching from High River through Central and Southeastern Alberta including Edmonton, Drumheller and Lloydminster will see between 10-20cm. And finally, we currently have the Red Deer and Calgary in the 5-10cm zone but there’s high uncertainty as some models show Calgary getting less than 1cm of snow while others have over 10cm so it could be higher or lower than our forecast.

Stay safe this weekend and if possible just stay home and off the roads. If you must travel, be sure to drive according to the conditions.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, November 2, 2020

Snow squalls and lake effect snow has developed off of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron this evening bringing up to 10-20cm to some regions in the snowbelt. This activity is expected to continue into Monday morning along with strong wind gusts up to 90km/h will likely cause blowing snow and near-zero visibility out on the roads. As a result, there is the possibility we see the first bus cancellations of the season with the highest probability around the Lake Huron and Southern Georgian Bay shoreline. There is some uncertainty on how early in the morning that the snow squalls will weaken and if they dissipate before 5 am then It will lower the chance of snow day substantially. Given that, we’re going with an equal chance (50%) as our highest probability and a mix of low or slight chances surrounding the affected region where cancellations probably won’t happen but we can’t completely rule it out.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast.

Fall Windstorm With Wind Gusts Up to 90km/h Across Southern Ontario Starting Sunday Evening

It’s going to be a wet, windy and snowy start to November for Southern Ontario as an Alberta clipper is moving across our region. Sunday started quite mild by November standards with temperatures early this morning reaching into the mid to upper single digits and heavy rain courtesy of the Alberta Clipper. The clipper is starting to move out of our region this afternoon and behind it will be colder temperatures bringing much of Southern Ontario to near or below the freezing mark by Sunday evening and into the overnight. Lake effect snow will also develop off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay bringing potentially up to 20cm of accumulation to some regions south of Georgian Bay and southwest of Lake Huron by Monday afternoon.

We are already seeing some gusty winds this afternoon and they will only become stronger as we head into the evening with potentially damaging wind gusts. The strongest gusts will be found around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron with gusts exceeding 90km/h and even approaching 100km/h right along the shoreline (particularly the Grand Bend, Goderich and Kincardine area). Away from the lake, we’ll still see strong winds ranging from 70-85km/h which could bring down some small tree branches and cause localized power outages. This will last overnight into Monday morning with the wind gusts subsiding after sunrise.

These strong wind gusts are expected at the same time that strong snow squalls could develop around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron overnight and into Monday morning. As a result, blowing snow and near-zero visibility is quite likely in the affected region so be sure to drive according to the conditions especially since this is the first big snowfall of the season.

Flooding rains, Tropical Storm Force Winds & Snow to Start The 1st Week of November!

Issued on November 1st, 2020 at 8 AM

Updated at 3:30 AM, November 2nd, 2020

Forecaster: Student Meteorologist James Follett

Good Morning! It’s the first of November! only 2 full months left of this crazy terrifying year, and also 2 months until Christmas y’all! in fact, while I was buying some junk food for myself so I can binge Halloween movies much of the night haha. I ended up watching Halloweentown and Hocus Pocus! so anyway, As I was going through the isle I started to see the Christmas candy and foods out! such as candy canes, chocolate liquor & those Christmas day calendars with a piece of chocolate for each day. So it’s coming fast!

I hope you all had a fantastic Halloween and didn’t get sick from all the candy! You’re going to want to enjoy today’s weather because we have a pretty big size storm coming our way that will start off as some heavy flooding rainfall & strong Tropical-storm-force winds. Then as the system pulls away, it is going to usher in some very cold air, and that will change much of the rain to snow, and there could be some ocean effect snow squalls!

We have Flood warnings up for southern portions of Nova Scotia, and Wind warnings for Cape Breton, and I would not be surprised to see wind warnings get expanded to much of the province.

We’ll start off by looking at the FutureCAST taking us out through the next 84 hours, High pressure currently keeping us dry, but very cold inland! will begin to break down and move eastward later today, this will give us some increasing cloudiness as we go into the rest of the day. Your afternoon drive, noon hour rush hour, and as well as the evening rush hour should be dry! It looks like, as of now that the first bands of rain will arrive on the South Shores and Tri-Counties sometime near 8 or 9 O’clock tonight.

The system is a fast mover, so it will not take long for the rain to spread across the province, the heaviest rain will arrive in the Southern parts of the province sometime near midnight and continue into the early morning hours of Monday. Then as the low begins to exit, we will see the rain taper off a little to some showers and light to moderate rain at times and this will continue until noontime, then we will see that cold air mass flow in right after lunchtime. Those are the blue lines you see, which represents the 500mb level, the lower the number in the blue, the colder the airmass so for example if you see 522, that is a polar air mass and that is very cold! 534-540 is the threshold for rain/snow or as we call it the rain/snow line. it’s the dividing line between cold and warm air.

By noontime, we will be 540, which is the start of cold air, however, it will still be warm enough to produce liquid precipitation. But because the colder air is funneling down, we’ll likely see temperatures drop through the day on Monday and the thickness levels drop down to 528mb by afternoon and this is normally the level we start seeing some mixed precipitation or snow however the models want to put it at drizzle/showers and I think it’s a bit underdone on the type of precipitation because at 7 pm Monday night, the model has precipitation falling as some light showers or drizzle and perhaps some light rain in the darkest green. The low will be centered just south of Yarmouth at this timeframe. a thickness level of 528, but when looking at the 850mbT ( Temperatures at 5000ft up) temperatures are going to be around -5 degrees, well cold enough for snow to form in the upper air, and temperatures at the surface will be between 3 and 6 degrees, which is mild.. however, if the air above is cold enough then it can still snow at these mild temperatures, in fact, it can snow even at 10 degrees C at the surface if the upper air temperatures are just cold enough! but it wouldn’t stick to the surface of course, but you would see it fall :)

In this case, with cold enough upper air temperatures and temperatures at the surface just a few degrees above freezing. The above freezing temperatures at the surface are likely why models say rain but I think this would fall as some wet snow! So do not be surprised to see some wet snowflakes around supper time Tomorrow.

Now, by the time we get near midnight Monday into Tuesday morning, you notice how the greens change to blue which represents snow of course. In fact, showing some moderate snowfall over Digby county by midnight. The thickness levels remain near 528, but the surface temperatures are right around 1 degree C, still above freezing but at 850mb or (5000ft) temperatures are now down to a very cold -10 degrees C and this is why the models are showing the change to snow, and I think the models have this pretty good at showing snow near midnight starting near Digby then spreading inland to rest of the province.

Scattered flurries and potential local ocean effect snow squalls continue into Tuesday afternoon as the cold air continues to dive down. in fact, by 10 am Tuesday the thickness levels are at 522! which is a polar airmass, this is an air mass with some very cold air, and so this is why we can expect precipitation to be all snow. It’s going to be a very cold day on Tuesday, so enjoy the last of warmth while you can!

By Wednesday it is back to sunshine, however, the temperatures will remain quite chilly!

Taking a look at the latest Infrared Satellite, MSLP & Fronts. Here is our big storm located over Ontario, it’s very large! it is spreading clouds and precipitation over much of the North Eastern US, and parts of the SE states. We have this large cold front that stretches all the way down to Texas, this cold front is what will usher in cold air for Tomorrow late day and continue into Wednesday, and actually, there is another front behind that one, and that one is what will be the very cold but dry air for Wednesday.

Here are the latest current temperatures and fronts. notice the warm air ahead of the first front under a High pressure? Temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s F. Behind the first front, there is little temperature change but it’s cooler into the 40’s to near 50 F. Then behind the 2nd cold front, and the very large high-pressure zone that is where you will see the coldest air! with temperatures into the 10’s F, which is in the -10’s C. We will be getting a piece of that! coming in here for Tuesday & Wednesday! so starting the month off to a bang and celebrating it with Mr. coldmeiser.

Now, with that big low pressure, there is tightening isobars and the tighter they are the windier it is! and boy is it windy and gonna get even windier over Ontario and great lakes! We have sustained winds in those areas as high at 60 km/h with higher gusts near 100 km/h! and those winds are heading this way for later tonight into Tuesday.

We have several advisories, watches & warnings in place to our south ahead of this storm, as well as do we in terms of wind and flood warnings. There are marine advisories up and down the whole entire eastern seaboard and all of the Southern state’s coastline as far as Texas! We have several winter advisories and wind advisories over the Great lakes, Freeze warnings to the south, and parts of the Northeastern states.

Looking at the current fronts, we have High pressure dominating much of the east coast and a large low pressure over the Great lakes, a cold front that stretches down towards Texas, another cold front behind it that goes into Oklahoma.

Fast forward into 11 am Tomorrow, seeing the fronts not moving much, we have the cold fronts still over the Great Lakes, High pressure moved further away, and pressure falling.

The low deepens and cold front becomes more longer and stronger as we get into the 24 hour period at 11 am Tomorrow morning.

So How much rain are we talking here?

We have the RDPS and ECMWF models of Total Precipitation. The top one, which is the RDPS Canadian model is suggesting that the highest amounts will be on the South Shores, while the Euro model says Digby/Yarmouth area.

As of now, with the storm track and model guidance, it looks like the heaviest rain will be in the entire southern parts of the province, elsewhere there will still be some significant rainfall but not as much as the southern areas.

Here is a look at the amounts from the FutureCAST RDPS model, darkest reds are amounts 60-90mm+

Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne & Queens can expect amounts of 50 to 75 mm, with higher local amounts possible. Instead, this model has 80 mm for Yarmouth through Wednesday. The rest of the province can see 30 to 50 mm, however a few spots looking to see 15 to 25 mm.

Now, the question is how much of the white stuff?? well, here is the good news! not expecting much. Much of the province will see an inch or less, there will be some spotty locations that will likely see some more. Parts of Digby county could see as much as 4” or 10 cm, and Northern & Western CB could see as much as 25 cm! Eastern CB, likely up to 2” or 5cm and much of the Eastern side of the province will see a dusting if anything!

From rain & snow to now winds, which will be the biggest story! because we are going to have many areas get Tropical-storm-force winds and these winds could be damaging. especially after just celebrating Halloween, if you have any decorations, it will be a good day to spend the day bringing them in as they could be at risk of being tossed in the wind. The wind will also cause possible damage to roofs and windows.

Winds will increase through tonight into Tomorrow, with Gusts over much of the province between 80 and 100 km/h, however, there will be some areas who may get above 110 km/h. Newfoundland is gonna get blasted Tomorrow!

Winds will be lightest in Digby & Yarmouth, where winds will likely just Gust to 70 km/h.

Check back here for a further update at 6pm for the latest on the storm and your local & regional forecast!

Windy & Snowy Start to November for Southern Ontario; Snow Squalls to Bring Up to 20cm of Snowfall Accumulation by Monday

Hold onto your masks and maybe dust off those snow brushes and shovels! A blast of winter-like weather is expected to start the first few days of November through parts of Southern Ontario. This includes the season’s first substantial lake effect snow events around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay that could bring between 10-20cm starting Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday. This will also be accompanied by very strong wind gusts expected to develop late Sunday into Monday morning with some areas seeing damage wind gusts over 90km/h. Due to the timing of this event, it’s certainly possible that will also see the chance at the first school bus cancellations of the season for Monday for some regions impacted by the squalls.

An Alberta clipper is expected to track into our region early Sunday morning with a very brief push of mild air causing temperatures to rise into the mid to upper single digits during the morning hours. With relatively warm temperatures, the Alberta clipper will start as moderate to heavy rainfall across Southern Ontario. Rainfall totals will range from 5-15mm with the higher totals throughout the more western part of the region. As we head into Sunday afternoon and evening we’ll begin to see temperature drop as colder air flows in behind the clipper causing temperatures to plunge near the freezing mark by the dinner hour. This will cause lingering precipitation to begin to transition over the wet snow. We’ll also start to see the lake effect machine kick into gear as conditions become favourable for lake effect showers and snow to develop.

Throughout the evening hours on Sunday, we expect the lake effect snow to become more organized as the wind direction becomes more stable. As a result, several intense snow squall bands off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron will develop just before midnight initially favouring a westerly flow pushing heavy snow east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. After midnight, the wind direction will shift causing the bands to sink southward with one band coming inland from Georgian Bay around the Meaford and Flesherton area. The other band will be focused on areas just the west of London affecting Lambton Shore and Strathroy. This will continue for much of the overnight hours and into Monday morning when we’ll finally see the lake effect weaken and break apart as conditions become unsupportive for snow squall activity during the late morning on Monday.

Snowfall totals will vary significantly as is typical with snow squall events with one area seeing extensive accumulation and another just a few kilometres away seeing just scattered flurries. So keep in mind that our forecast is based on the latest model data and where we believe the squalls will set up. A slight change in the wind direction could cause these zones to shift around. With that being said, the heaviest accumulation is expected south of Georgian Bay and southwest of Lake Huron including locations such as Flesherton, Lambton Shore and Strathroy where between 12-20cm of snowfall accumulation is possible. Surrounding regions including London, Hanover, Orangeville and Collingwood could see as much as 6-12cm with local totals pushing 15cm.

You might notice that we have lower totals around the Lake Huron shoreline and this is because we expect temperatures to be slightly warmer hovering near the freezing mark. This means that while they will see just as much snowfall as inland, most of it will melt on contact due to the warmer temperatures. This includes Goderich, Kincardine and Wiarton with snow totals between 2-6cm. All other areas can expect less than 5cm of total snowfall from this event.

We are also expecting a fairly strong wind storm to develop Sunday evening with wind gusts around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron exceeding 90km/h and even approaching 100km/h right along the shoreline (particularly the Grand Bend, Goderich and Kincardine area). Away from the lake, we’ll still see strong winds ranging from 70-85km/h which could bring down some small tree branches and cause localized power outages. This will last overnight into Monday morning with the wind gusts subsiding after sunrise. Now, the strong wind gusts will be occurring at the same time that we expect strong snow squalls to affect some areas through the snowbelts. As a result, blowing snow and near-zero visibility is quite likely in the affected region so be sure to drive according to the conditions especially since this is the first big snowfall of the season.

We’ll continue to monitor the latest data and issue updates as necessary!

Halloween Outlook: An Eerily Quiet Halloween With Spine-Chilling Temperatures for Southern Ontario

As we approach the spookiest day of the year, the last week of October has been full of tricks weather-wise from a late-season terrifying tornado last Friday and some frightful flurries over the past few days. Now, we’re happy to report that it appears Mother Nature has decided to stop with the tricks (for at least one day) and is going to treat us with fairly good weather on Halloween by Ontario standards. Although, you might want to consider adding some additional layers to the costume this year because temperatures across the region will be quite wicked with some parts of Central and Eastern Ontario dipping below the freezing mark during Trick-or-Treating hours.

There isn’t much to talk about with the weather across Southern Ontario on Halloween which is a good thing. So we’ll focus on the biggest story which is the colder temperatures. As mentioned, those through the higher elevations of Central and Eastern Ontario including Northern Muskoka, Algonquin Park, Bancroft and Petawawa will see temperature flirt with the freezing mark likely ending up around -1 to -3°C. Factoring in the ghoulish wind chill, it’ll feel closer to -5°C. The rest of Southern Ontario (except for those around the lakeshore) will see temperatures in the low single digits between 0 to 5°C. And finally, regions around Lake Ontario, Huron, Erie and Georgian Bay will see temperatures in the mid to upper single digits ranging from 5 to 8°C.

Just because Mother Nature has decided to treat us on Halloween doesn't mean she’s not hard at work brewing up a spooky start to November. That’s because we’re monitoring the potential for lake effect snow late Sunday into Monday off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. It’s looking slightly weaker than a few days ago with a smaller timeframe, but it’s still possible that many areas will see their first impactful snowfall of the year with between 5-10cm and locally up to 15cm through Ontario’s Snowbelt. More details on that will be coming soon.

IMPORTANT: If you do plan to go out to celebrate Halloween, please be sure to adhere to all health guidelines surrounding COVID-19. This includes maintaining social distancing at all times, wearing a mask (costume masks DON'T count) and only getting together with people from your household. Health officials also recommend that those in Ottawa, Peel, Toronto and York Region to NOT participate in door-to-door Trick-or-Treating. Stay home and celebrate in other ways. Click HERE for more information from the Government of Ontario on how to stay safe during Halloween.