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The severe weather threat continues across the Prairies today, with all three provinces getting in on the action. The storms today will be triggered by a cold front pushing southward from the Arctic which extends from British Columbia all the way into Northern Ontario, leading to a widespread risk of severe weather. Despite this, there are two main areas of concern for heightened severe risk. In between these two highlighted areas, severe thunderstorms are still possible throughout the afternoon and evening, but they are not expected to be as strong.

One of the areas that could see stronger severe storms is Central and Southern Alberta, particularly to the north and east of Calgary. This region can expect to see the development of two rounds of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

The first round of storms will initiate in the Foothills to the north of Calgary in the early afternoon, beginning around noon or shortly thereafter. The additional severe thunderstorm development is then expected to occur later in the afternoon in the Southern Foothills as the cold front continues pushing southward. All of these storms will develop in an environment that is favourable for the development of supercells and they will strengthen as they slowly track eastward across the province through the afternoon and evening.

The greatest threats from both rounds of storms in Central and Southern will be the possibility of large hail that could be the size of golf balls, damaging winds gusts in excess of 100km/h and localized flooding due to the slow moving nature of the cells. There is also the possibility of an isolated tornado touching down, particularly from the storms that develop to the south of Calgary. The City of Calgary itself appears as though it will dodge the greatest hail threat, but it likely won’t completely avoid being hit by severe weather.

Further north, sub-severe storms are in the forecast across much of Northern Alberta. One thing to keep an eye on though, from Edmonton and stretching northwestward through the Grande Prairie and Peace River areas, is the possibility of funnel clouds forming. In rare cases, these could touch down as landspout tornadoes.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR showing 8pm in Southern Alberta, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

Our second area of concern for severe storms today lies in East Central and Southeast Saskatchewan and through most of Central and Southern Manitoba, from Regina to Winnipeg.

In this area, scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly after noon local time in Saskatchewan, but they will surpass the severe threshold fairly quickly. As the cold front responsible for triggering today’s storms continues to track southward through this region, isolated storms will also develop in Manitoba in the early afternoon to mid-afternoon, around 1-3pm local time.

The severe thunderstorms will follow an east-southeastward trajectory across this region throughout the afternoon and evening and additional storms could fire up along the international border in Southeast Saskatchewan in the evening that should track out of the country after only an hour or two. By 8-10pm, it appears that the storms in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will lose much of their intensity, becoming sub-severe and bringing heavy rain and slightly weaker winds to those in their path.

The severe thunderstorms in this region today have the potential to bring hail that could be as large as or even larger than Timbits, and strong wind gusts as high as 100km/h. There will be plenty of moisture associated with these storms, but they will be moving quickly and this could limit the rainfall seen in the impacted areas. The risk for a tornado is low through Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but it can not be completely ruled out with these severe thunderstorms.