Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan Today with Slight Risk of a Tornado

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Severe thunderstorms are going to be likely across Southern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan today. A cold front associated with the low pressure system that’s responsible for the heavy rainfall in Central Alberta will be the trigger for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid-20s, but dewpoints are expected to be fairly low, barely reaching mid-teens for most of Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan. This lack of moisture could hamper thunderstorm development, however some moisture from the north could make its way into the region later today, which would make up for the lower dewpoints.

Simulated reflectivity at 3pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this afternoon in the Foothills as individual cells. These storms will likely be severe for most of the region, but there is a more isolated severe risk closer to the low pressure center, in the Edmonton area and westward.

As the storms progress eastward through the afternoon and evening, they are expected to eventually merge into a line. This transition to a linear storm mode will bring a more widespread severe risk across Southeastern Alberta and eventually into Southwestern Saskatchewan later in the evening (around 8-10pm).

The severe risk does not extend too far eastward into Saskatchewan because the storms will weaken later in the evening. This will lead to a more isolated threat into the Swift Current area by around midnight before it’s expected that the storms become non-severe for the rest of the overnight period.

Simulated reflectivity at 9pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

Across most of Southern Alberta and stretching into parts of Central Alberta, including Red Deer, and Southwestern Saskatchewan is where there is the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms today. In this region, the main severe weather threats will be strong wind gusts above 100km/h and large hail that could be as big as ping pong balls. There is also a small risk of a tornado today, but that will be very conditional on there being enough moisture moving into this area from the north ahead of the thunderstorm development.

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Another Soggy Weekend for Central Alberta as we Welcome Summer with a Widespread 25-100mm of Rain

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It’s been a very wet few weeks, which started off during the last weekend of May when over 75mm of rain fell across a significant swath of Central and Southern Alberta. This rainy trend will continue this weekend, as we welcome the first day of summer on Sunday, and by Monday morning, some areas could once again receive up to 100mm of rain.

Rain will begin to fall in parts of West Central Alberta Friday evening and overnight as a low pressure system from British Columbia starts to move into the province. Through Saturday morning, the rain will gradually spread east and should reach the Saskatchewan border during the early afternoon.

Once the rain sets up over Central Alberta and into parts of Northern Alberta, the system is expected to stall and bring continuous rain through to Sunday evening. At that point, the system will start to break down and the rain will taper off overnight Sunday and through Monday morning. It’s likely that a bit of rain will spread into Southeastern Alberta Monday morning before it completely dissipates by the afternoon.

The RDPS model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5AM MDT on Sunday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

By the time the rain comes to an end Monday afternoon, more than 25mm of rain is expected to have fallen over much of Central Alberta and into Northern Alberta. Areas to the east of Edson will likely receive 50-75mm, while the City of Edmonton and eastward could see upwards of 100mm of rain.

The heaviest rain will fall at an average of 3-5mm/hr throughout the weekend, but there could possibly be pockets of intense rain from embedded thunderstorms, which could drive the rainfall totals beyond 100mm locally.

Considering how much rain we’ve already seen this month that has kept the ground fairly saturated, this much additional rainfall will very likely lead to localized flooding, especially near bodies of water. Please be sure to avoid any moving water for the next few days and if you come across a flooded roadway, do not attempt to drive through. Turn around, don’t drown.

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Powerful June Storm System Could Bring Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes to Southern Ontario Overnight

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An unusually strong and deepening low pressure system for mid-June is set to track through the Great Lakes region overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. This powerful system will bring the potential for severe weather to a large portion of Southern Ontario, with the greatest threat occurring late tonight and into Thursday morning.

The same system is expected to produce a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan this afternoon and evening. In those areas, forecasters are highlighting the risk of violent tornadoes, destructive wind gusts and large hail as a potent combination of instability and wind shear develops ahead of the approaching low pressure system.

As this line of storms pushes eastward into Michigan tonight, it is expected to gradually weaken before reaching Ontario. However, weakening does not necessarily mean the severe threat will disappear.

Even in a decaying state, this line of storms could still bring impactful weather to portions of Southwestern Ontario, especially areas closest to the international border and along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Based on the latest forecast data, the primary threat appears to be damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h. In localized areas, stronger wind gusts could occur if isolated downbursts develop within the line of storms. These stronger pockets of wind have the potential to cause tree damage, power outages and scattered property damage.

While the tornado threat will be considerably lower than what is expected across parts of the United States, it cannot be completely ruled out.

The atmosphere over Deep Southwestern Ontario will remain supportive of some rotation early in the night, particularly while the line of storms is still relatively organized. Any tornado risk would likely be brief and localized in nature, but the strong dynamics associated with this system mean it is something we will be watching closely.

Another factor adding complexity to this forecast is the strength of the low pressure system itself.

In addition to thunderstorm-related winds, very strong winds will be present just above the surface overnight. Normally, a temperature inversion would act as a lid and prevent those stronger winds from mixing down to ground level. Current indications suggest that inversion should remain in place for much of the night.

However, if portions of that stronger wind are able to reach the surface, isolated non-thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h would be possible. This risk appears highest near the shorelines of Lake Huron and Lake Erie where local effects can help enhance wind gusts.

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We’ll be closely monitoring this severe weather threat throughout the evening and overnight hours.

If conditions warrant, we’ll be going live on our YouTube channel with real-time storm tracking, radar analysis, warning updates and coverage of any severe weather that develops across Southern Ontario.

Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE and turn on notifications so you don’t miss any live coverage. Whether it’s damaging winds, tornado warnings or rapidly changing conditions, we’ll be there to keep you informed every step of the way.

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Heavy rainfall will also accompany this system. Many areas will receive beneficial rainfall, but localized torrential downpours could lead to rainfall amounts exceeding 50 mm in a relatively short period of time. If storms repeatedly move over the same area, flash flooding could develop, especially in urban locations and areas with poor drainage.

The highest severe weather risk tonight stretches across Deep Southwestern Ontario and portions of the Lake Huron shoreline. This includes Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, Sarnia, Grand Bend, Goderich and Kincardine.

In these areas, storms could begin arriving as early as 8 to 9 PM and continue through the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern, although heavy rain and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

As the line progresses eastward, it is expected to reach the London, Woodstock, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville and Hanover areas around or shortly after midnight. There remains some uncertainty regarding exactly how much strength the storms will retain by this point. However, the potential still exists for several pockets of damaging winds to survive farther inland.

The tornado threat should be lower compared to areas farther west, but strong winds and localized flooding will continue to be concerns as the line moves through.

By the time the storms reach Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe during the overnight hours, the severe threat should be decreasing further. That said, this remains a powerful weather system and some stronger portions of the line could still produce isolated wind gusts approaching 90 km/h.

As a result, we continue to highlight an isolated severe weather risk for Toronto, Hamilton, Niagara, Newmarket, Barrie, Orillia, Bracebridge, Peterborough and Bancroft.

Attention will then shift to Eastern Ontario during the early morning hours on Thursday. Unlike areas farther west, there are indications that the atmosphere may begin to recover somewhat as the main line approaches. There is also the potential for additional isolated thunderstorms to develop behind or ahead of the main line shortly after sunrise.

This could allow for a secondary severe weather threat across portions of Eastern Ontario, particularly near the international border and into the Ottawa Valley. This broader morning severe weather risk includes Kingston, Brockville, Smiths Falls, Cornwall, Ottawa and Picton.

Should additional storms develop within this environment, all severe weather hazards would be possible including damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, hail and even an isolated tornado.

Forecast confidence in the tornado threat remains lower due to the early morning timing and questions surrounding how much instability can develop. However, the environment bears watching closely given the strength of the overall weather system.

The severe weather threat is expected to gradually come to an end from west to east through Thursday morning, with most areas seeing the risk diminish by early afternoon.

Even after thunderstorms exit the region, conditions will remain quite blustery throughout the day. Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts may continue across much of Southern Ontario as the powerful low pressure system pulls away from the Great Lakes.

Strong Winds and Timbit Sized Hail Possible with Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms in Southern Alberta & Saskatchewan Tuesday

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It’s looking like it’ll be an active day for some parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan today. A low pressure system from Southern British Columbia will track southeastward through Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today, which will trigger the development of thunderstorms across the region.

Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid-20s, with dewpoints possibly into the mid-teens, across Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, which should help fuel thunderstorm development. There will be a modest amount of CAPE in the region, with weather models showing upwards of 1000J/kg for some areas. While this is not a great deal of instability, the combination of shear and a mechanism for lift will be enough for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the region.

Simulated reflectivity at 2pm, courtesy of weatherbell.

Non-severe thunderstorms have already developed this morning in Central Alberta. As the low continues tracking southeast into Southern Alberta, so too will the thunderstorms and starting in the early afternoon, it’s likely that the storms that develop will become severe.

The bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected to make its way into Southern Saskatchewan later in the afternoon, around 3-5pm. Behind the initial cluster of storms in this area, additional storms are expected to develop to the west, in Southern Alberta. Most of these storms will likely be severe, but there is a more isolated severe risk that will extend eastward across much of the rest of Southern Saskatchewan.

The thunderstorms will gradually weaken through the evening as they continue tracking into Montana and most of the storms should cross the international border by midnight. However, there is a chance that some storms could linger in Southern Saskatchewan into the early morning hours.

Simulated reflectivity at 6pm, courtesy of weatherbell.

An area that stretches from northwest of Calgary southeastward into Southwestern Saskatchewan, shown in yellow on our forecast map, is where there is the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms today. Across this region, the main threat from thunderstorms today will be strong wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, however there is also the threat that these storms could produce large hail that could be as large as Timbits and maybe even as large as golf balls. Given that at least one tornado is confirmed to have touched down in Northern Alberta from this system last night, the possibility of additional tornadoes today can not be ruled out.

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Potential Derecho Combined with Threat of Baseball Hail and Tornadoes Marks the Return of Extreme Risk in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Tuesday

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It was a very busy weekend for severe weather in Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. From the two day span, there have been countless reports of massive hail, wind damage, flooding from across the region, as well as a few tornado reports that are awaiting confirmation. Unfortunately, the calmer conditions we saw on Monday will come to an end when strong severe thunderstorms once again impact Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba today.

Through the day, a low pressure system will strengthen as it moves from Southeastern Montana into Western North Dakota and then into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba by later this afternoon. A warm front will extend eastward from the low pressure center, which will help draw lots of heat and moisture northward into Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Future Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed for 12pm cst/1pm CDT on Tuesday, courtesy of the national weather service.

Temperatures are slated to climb into upper 20s and low 30s across the region this afternoon and with dewpoints expected to be in the upper teens, there will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorm development. Weather models are showing upwards of 4000J/kg of CAPE in some areas, which will support the development of supercell thunderstorms. Veering winds will also create a significant amount of shear to maintain large supercell thunderstorms and support tornado potential.

Through the morning, there is a chance that some thunderstorms could develop in Southeastern Saskatchewan which would track northeastward into Southwestern Manitoba during the early afternoon. These storms could possibly become severe and produce some small hail and strong winds, but they won’t be as strong as the storms expected later in the day.

Simulated reflectivity at 3pm CST/4pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

Severe thunderstorms could start to fire up in the early afternoon, particularly in Southwestern and West Central Saskatchewan. However, we will gradually see more organized development of stronger thunderstorms occur across Southern Saskatchewan and into Southwestern Manitoba as we get later in the afternoon, around 3-6pm, depending on the time zone.

Similar to what we saw on the weekend, the thunderstorms are expected to grow exponentially into large supercells which will track mostly northeastward through the evening and overnight.

Simulated reflectivity at 7pm CST/8pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

Even more thunderstorms are expected develop during the evening and storms will also move into the region from south of the border. As with the situation on both Saturday and Sunday, there is the likelihood that these additional storms will end up merging into a large line of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will continue to be quite strong for a few hours after they transition into a linear storm mode.

As the hours tick on and it gets closer to midnight, it’s likely that the storms will begin to gradually weaken. This is also around the time that the severe line will make its way into the Winnipeg area so it’s possible that the city could avoid the greatest severe hazards of the day.

Simulated reflectivity at 11pm CST/12am CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

The risk of strong severe thunderstorms extends across much of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba today. Across much of the region, there will be the possibility for storms to produce ping pong ball hail, damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h, and heavy rains that will likely result in localized flooding.

However, the greatest threat of severe weather will once again be in Southeastern Saskatchewan, into Southwestern Manitoba and extending eastward into the Interlake Region and approaching the Red River Valley. This region, highlighted in red and purple on our forecast map, could see some exceptionally strong thunderstorms this evening that will originate from Montana.

The main threat from the thunderstorms that move through this region is expected be widespread destructive wind gusts upwards of 130km/h and this could very likely end up being considered a derecho. On top of this, the storms will also have torrential downpours that could further exacerbate the flooding issues being faced by some communities and they may produce hail that could be as large as baseballs, which could be extremely dangerous if it’s being driven by winds up to 130km/h. As if this wasn’t enough, there is also a tornado risk across this region.

The major hindrance to tornado development over the weekend was that a lack of moisture ended up keeping the cloud bases high, until they were able to lower later in the evening on Sunday. This could end up being the case today, but this still has the potential to be a life-threatening situation.

Even without the tornado risk, today’s severe weather threat is very serious. If you live in the area that we’ve highlighted in either red or purple on our map, PLEASE be prepared for the likelihood that threatening weather could impact your area today. Make sure you have your phones charged and you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. It’s also a good idea to have a plan in place in the event that you need to take shelter.

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Threat of Large Hail, Damaging Winds and Tornadoes Returns to Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Tuesday

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It was a very busy weekend for severe weather in Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. From the two day span, there have been countless reports of massive hail, wind damage, flooding from across the region, as well as a few tornado reports that are awaiting confirmation. Unfortunately, Monday’s calmer conditions won’t last because strong severe thunderstorms are once again expected to impact Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Tuesday.

Early Tuesday, a low pressure system will move into Southeastern Montana and from there, it will strengthen as it tracks into Western North Dakota through the morning hours and into the afternoon. A warm front will extend eastward from the low pressure center, which will help draw lots of heat and moisture northward into Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Future Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed for 12pm cst/1pm CDT on Tuesday, courtesy of the national weather service.

Temperatures are slated to climb into upper 20s and low 30s across the region in the afternoon and with dewpoints expected to be in the upper teens, there will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorm development. Some models are showing upwards of 4000J/kg of CAPE in some areas, which will support the development of supercell thunderstorms.

Veering winds will also create a significant amount of shear to maintain large supercell thunderstorms and support tornado potential. Overall, this is looking like a fairly similar environmental setup to Sunday.

During the late morning, there is a chance that some thunderstorms could develop in Southeastern Saskatchewan which would track northeastward into Southwestern Manitoba into the early afternoon hours. These storms will likely become severe and produce some small hail and strong winds, but they won’t be as strong as the storms expected later in the day. However, if these storms manage to persist across the Interlake Region, they could end up re-intensifying through the late afternoon and evening.

Simulated reflectivity at 4pm CST/5pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

The strong severe thunderstorms could start to fire up in the early afternoon, particularly in Southwestern and West Central Saskatchewan. However, we will gradually see more organized development occur across Southern Saskatchewan and into Southwestern Manitoba as we get later in the afternoon, around 3-6pm, depending on the time zone.

Similar to what we saw on the weekend, the thunderstorms are expected to grow exponentially into large supercells which will track mostly northeastward through the evening and overnight.

Simulated reflectivity at 8pm CST/9pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

More thunderstorms are expected develop during the evening and storms will also move into the region from south of the border. As with the situation on both Saturday and Sunday, there is the likelihood that these additional storms will end up merging into a large line of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will continue to be quite strong for a few hours after they transition into a linear storm mode.

As the hours tick on and it gets closer to midnight, it’s likely that the storms will begin to gradually weaken. This is also around the time that the severe line will make its way into the Winnipeg area so it’s possible that the city could avoid the greatest severe hazards of the day.

Simulated reflectivity at 11pm CST/12am CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

The risk of strong severe thunderstorms on Tuesday extends across much of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Throughout this region, the severe thunderstorms could end up producing hail that’s larger than golf balls, widespread damaging wind gusts up to 130km/h, and torrential downpours that could exacerbate the flooding issues some communities are already dealing with.

There is also the potential for tornadoes to form from these thunderstorms. The major hindrance to tornado development over the weekend was that a lack of moisture ended up keeping the cloud bases high until they were able to lower later in the evening on Sunday. This could end up being the case on Tuesday, given the similar environmental setup, but the risk is certainly still in place.

Please keep in mind that this is a preliminary forecast and could differ from our final forecast as more data comes in overnight and tomorrow morning.

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Widespread Tornado Threat and Softball-Sized Hail Possible with Extreme Thunderstorm Risk on Sunday as Severe Weather Outbreak Enters its Second Day

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After a busy day yesterday, that saw severe thunderstorms dropping massive baseball-sized hail over parts of Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba, we have the chance to do it all again today. It’s likely that today could be an even greater severe risk day than yesterday, with an extreme risk posed by the possibility of gigantic hail and multiple tornadoes. However, there has been a little bit of uncertainty surrounding how thunderstorms may end up developing this afternoon and evening.

Like yesterday, today’s severe thunderstorm threat will be triggered by a cold front that is currently oriented on a north-south axis and it located just west of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. This is a bit further west than originally anticipated when we issued our preliminary forecast on Friday, due in part to the front becoming stationary for a period of time yesterday. As a result, the severe risk today will cover more of Southeastern Saskatchewan and won’t extend as far east across Southern Manitoba.

To the east of the cold front, temperatures will once again climb into the low 30s this afternoon and it’s expected to be much more humid today, with dew points approaching the 20°C mark. The lack of moisture yesterday kept the cloud bases high, which greatly reduced the tornado risk, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case today.

The heat and humidity will lead to high levels of instability and upwards of 3000J/kg of CAPE to fuel thunderstorm development again today. Veering winds will also create a significant amount of shear to maintain large supercell thunderstorms.

Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed as of 6am cst this morning, courtesy of the national weather service.

As we’ve mentioned in this forecast already, and in our forecast from yesterday, there was uncertainty with today’s severe thunderstorm risk. There have been some mostly non-severe thunderstorms that have tracked through Southern Manitoba already this morning and it is possible these could hinder additional development later today.

The storms have weakened over the past couple of hours and the thought was that if they manage to clear early enough, that will allow for there to be ample surface heating needed for the additional explosive development later. However, if the storms stuck around into the afternoon, the severe thunderstorm risk would be greatly reduced. With the clearing of these morning storms already occurring, it seems likely the severe threat will not be diminished.

The significant severe thunderstorms could develop in the late afternoon and into the early evening, around 4-6pm in Southeastern Saskatchewan and extending northeastward into Southern and Central Manitoba. These storms could once again explode into massive and dangerous supercell thunderstorms that would track roughly northeastward through the evening.

Simulated reflectivity at 4pm CST/5pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

The area highlighted on our map in red, that covers a large portion of Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, will be at a very high risk for dangerous severe thunderstorms. The area highlighted in purple, however, is where the strongest environment is expected to be and where there is an extreme risk for incredibly dangerous and life-threatening thunderstorms.

Throughout this region, the severe thunderstorms could end up producing absolutely massive, and maybe record-breaking, softball-sized hail, damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h, and very heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. If we end up seeing the moisture that we were lacking yesterday, and the storm bases are lower, it is entirely possible that we could be looking at a tornado outbreak.

Simulated reflectivity at 8pm CST/9pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

As we progress through the evening, more thunderstorms are expected develop and storms will also move into the region from south of the border. Once again, there is the likelihood that these additional storms will end up merging into a large line of storms which could impact a wide area into the overnight hours.

By the time we see a more linear storm mode, it’s likely that the storms will have weakened from their greatest strength, but they are still expected to be very strong and capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rain.

The tornado threat should also decrease as we get later in the evening and into the overnight hours, but with how strong these thunderstorms could be today, there will still be a slight risk until the storms move into Northern Manitoba during the early morning.

Today’s severe weather threat is very serious. If you live in the area that we’ve highlighted in either red or purple on our map, PLEASE be prepared for the possibility of threatening weather to impact your area today. Make sure you have your phones charged and you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. It’s also a good idea to have a plan in place in the event that you need to take shelter.

Once again, we will absolutely be live-streaming later so please join us while we monitor and track today’s severe weather. We hope everyone is able to stay safe today!

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Tennis Ball-Sized Hail and Multiple Tornadoes Possible as Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak Targets Southeastern Saskatchewan on Saturday

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Over the last several days, we’ve been closely watching the possibility of an intense multi-day setup for this weekend that would impact Southeastern Saskatchewan today and shift into Southwestern Manitoba tomorrow. There has been a lot of chatter online about this severe weather risk and combined with several high-profile storm chasers in the area from the US, it’s easy to say that we’re not looking at your average thunderstorm activity.

Today’s severe thunderstorm threat will be courtesy of a warm and cold front that is poised over Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. The warm sector between the two fronts will see temperatures climb into the upper 20s and low 30s this afternoon, with high humidity.

This will lead to high levels of instability and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) for thunderstorm development. Add in veering winds, changing direction with height, which will create a great amount of shear, and you have the recipe for an outbreak of significantly strong severe thunderstorms.

Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed as of 6am cst this morning, courtesy of the national weather service.

There have already been some scattered thunderstorms this morning which will continue through the afternoon across much of Southern Saskatchewan. These storms are expected to stay non-severe for the most part, but there is an isolated severe risk.

The thunderstorms that will be the focus for today aren’t expected to develop until this evening, starting around 5-6pm, to the east of Regina. Weather models are showing that these storms will likely quickly explode into large and dangerous supercell thunderstorms as they track roughly east-northeastward.

Simulated reflectivity at 6pm CST, courtesy of weatherbell.

The area highlighted on our map in red that covers a large portion of Southwestern Saskatchewan and into parts of the Parkland Region in Manitoba will be at the greatest risk for the strongest of these severe thunderstorms.

In this region, it’s likely that the storms could produce massive hail as large as tennis balls and possibly even larger, damaging wind gusts up to or exceeding 100km/h, and heavy downpours that could result in localized flooding. There is also a considerable threat that multiple tornadoes could touch down in this region; with the stretch from Weyburn to Yorkton appearing to be of particular concern.

As we progress through the evening, we will see additional thunderstorm development occur, which are expected to merge into a line of storms. This will bring a more widespread threat of the significant and strong storms across the rest of Southeastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba.

Simulated reflectivity at 8pm CST, courtesy of weatherbell.

The severe weather threat will diminish gradually as the hours tick on in the evening and overnight. The tornado risk is also expected to decrease from its highest point by the mid-evening, but the storms could still be strong enough for the risk to remain through the evening. By midnight, there could still be a widespread risk of some severe storms, but this will quickly turn into a more isolated risk and scattered non-severe thunderstorms through the morning.

Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon, we’re looking at another day of possibly strong severe thunderstorms, with the risk pushing further east across Southern Manitoba. What ends up happening tomorrow will really depend on how things unfold today. There’s the possibility that tomorrow could have even stronger storms than what is expected this afternoon, but this will be heavily contingent on how long any overnight storms manage to persist into tomorrow.

If the storms clear during the morning, that will allow for there to be ample surface heating for the development of another significant severe thunderstorm outbreak. However, if the storms continue into the afternoon, the severe thunderstorm risk will be greatly reduced.

We will have more details later today about how tomorrow could shape up. In the meantime, we will be watching today’s development very closely and we will be streaming later to track the severe thunderstorms live. Be sure to tune in!

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Saskatchewan & Manitoba: Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk Saturday and Sunday

A multi-day severe thunderstorm risk is shaping up across parts of the Prairies this weekend, with the focus beginning in Saskatchewan on Saturday before shifting east into Manitoba and parts of far southeastern Saskatchewan on Sunday.

This is still a preliminary forecast and may differ from our final forecast, but there is enough concern at this point that residents across the risk zones should be paying close attention to the forecast through the weekend.

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Saturday: Saskatchewan & Southwestern Manitoba

An isolated but strong severe thunderstorm risk will be in place across much of southern and central Saskatchewan from Saturday morning into Saturday night. Storms may be scattered at first, but any stronger cells that develop could produce large hail, strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

The main concern develops later in the day, especially across southeastern Saskatchewan. By the late afternoon and evening, conditions may become more significant, with a higher-end severe threat possible around areas such as Regina, Fort Qu’Appelle, Yorkton, Melville, Moosomin, Weyburn, Estevan, Carlyle, and surrounding communities.

The primary hazards include very large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, torrential downpours, isolated flooding, and a tornado risk. This does not mean every community in the risk zone will see severe weather, but any storm that can fully develop may become severe or even strong severe in a hurry.

Additional thunderstorms may also move north from south of the border later Saturday evening and overnight, which could continue the severe risk into the nighttime hours across parts of southern and southeastern Saskatchewan. Please make sure you have a way to receive alerts before going to bed, especially if storms are still developing nearby or to the south.

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Sunday: Manitoba and Deep Southeastern Saskatchewan

By Sunday, the focus shifts farther east, with the strongest severe thunderstorm risk expected across southern and central Manitoba. The current risk area includes communities such as Brandon, Virden, Killarney, Boissevain, Neepawa, Dauphin, Portage la Prairie, Carman, Gimli, Selkirk, and surrounding areas.

Winnipeg and nearby communities are also included in the broader severe thunderstorm risk, although the highest risk may be somewhat west and northwest of the city based on the current outlook.

A strong severe risk is also possible across parts of far southeastern Saskatchewan, especially closer to the Manitoba border. This may include areas such as Moosomin, Carlyle, Estevan, Carnduff, and nearby communities, depending on how storms evolve through the day.

The strongest Sunday storms could bring very large hail, damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and a tornado risk. As with Saturday, the exact placement and timing of the highest risk may still change as newer data becomes available.

The bottom line: Saturday is the main day to watch across southern and southeastern Saskatchewan, while Sunday’s main concern shifts into Manitoba, with far southeastern Saskatchewan still needing to keep a close eye on the forecast.

Please stay weather-aware this weekend, review your severe weather plan, and be ready to take shelter quickly if watches or warnings are issued for your area.

June Starts With a Bang as Strong Severe Thunderstorms Threaten Southern Manitoba

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The summer-like heat that has taken hold of the southern half of Manitoba over the last few days is finally going to give way to more seasonal temperatures. A cold front will move through the province today, which will be responsible for the drop in temperatures, however, it will also be the trigger for severe thunderstorms across Southern and Central Manitoba.

Thunderstorms have already developed this morning in Western North Dakota and they have been tracking north-northeastward across Westman. So far, these storms have stayed non-severe, but there is an isolate severe risk associated with them as they will continue making their way into the Parkland Region through the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon. There is a more widespread severe risk associated with the storms just on the other side of the Saskatchewan border.

While this first wave of storms aren’t too strong, the thunderstorms that will follow this afternoon, on the other hand, could be a different story.

Simulated reflectivity at 3pm CT, courtesy of weatherbell.

The second round of thunderstorms will arrive in the early afternoon in Westman, around 12-1pm, as a combination of discrete cells and small multicellular storms. However, they will gradually organize into an intense line of thunderstorms, that will stretch across Southwestern Manitoba and Western North Dakota by the mid-afternoon.

This line is expected to comprised of strong severe thunderstorms, which could possibly be rotating supercells, that will track northeastward across Southern and Central Manitoba.

The mid-afternoon and into the early evening, from about 3-6pm, will be the time frame when there is the greatest risk for severe weather hazards. Large hail, up to the size of ping pong balls or golf balls, is one of the major threats during this time, along with heavy downpours and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and possibly as high as 130km/h. There is also the threat of an isolated tornado forming from these supercell storms.

Simulated reflectivity at 7pm CT, courtesy of weatherbell.

By the time the storms reach the Winnipeg area, at around 7-8pm, it’s expected that they will weaken slightly as they shift away from being supercellular and into a more linear storm mode. There will still be a widespread severe risk, with intense winds being of particular concern. Heavy downpours and slightly smaller hail will remain a risk as the bowing line continues towards the Ontario border, however the tornado threat all but disappears.

As we get later in the evening and into the overnight hours, the storms will lose energy and the severe risk will become more isolated. Weak thunderstorms will persist through the early morning hours throughout Eastman and into the Red River Valley, but they will dissipate to light showers by sunrise.

This is the kind of setup that will have a lot of eyes on it. We will definitely be streaming later so make sure to join us for our live coverage of these storms.

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Soaking Rains Will Mark the End of May and Start of June Across Most of Alberta, More Than 100mm Possible Over Four Days

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It’s been a scorcher of a week for parts of Alberta and it’s felt more like summer thanks to temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 30s, which is 10-20°C above seasonal, depending on the location. Now, the upper level ridge responsible for the heat is shifting eastward and it will be replaced by more moderate temperatures across the province.

Alongside these cooler temperatures, we are also looking at several days of much-needed rain that is expected to fall over the majority of Alberta. Unfortunately, it’s looking like the heavy rain won’t make it into Northwestern Alberta so those in this region will have to make do with what falls on Friday and into early Saturday.

Patchy areas of light and moderate rainfall will start to make its way into Southern Alberta from the States on Saturday morning from a low pressure system over Montana. The low will gradually track north towards the Saskatchewan border through the day and with it, the rain will also spread northwards. Rain will also cross from Saskatchewan into later in the day to create one large area of rainfall that covers much of the eastern half of the province by Sunday morning.

The ECMWF model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7AM MT on Sunday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The low pressure center should be located over Southwestern Saskatchewan before sunrise on Sunday. This is when the low is expected to strengthen, which will lead to heavier rain falling across Eastern Alberta. The system will slowly continue tracking north throughout Sunday, which will bring the rain up to the Northwest Territories border by the evening.

On Saturday alone, at least 10mm of rain is expected fall across the eastern half of the province and conservatively, up to 50mm could be possible in parts of East Central and Northeastern Alberta.

The ECMWF model showing total precipitation over 24 hours up to 12am MT Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The rain will continue to fall into Monday, with the continuation of heavy rain as well. However, the system will begin to fall apart in the afternoon and the rain will end for most of Northeastern Alberta.

The rain will continue to fall in East Central and Southern Alberta throughout the day, but there could be breaks in the rainfall, as well as periods of heavy rain. These opposite ends of the spectrum make the rainfall totals on Monday a bit tougher to forecast.

Once again, at least 10mm of rain is expected to fall over a significant area over the course of Monday. Overall, not as much rain is expected to fall on Monday than on Sunday, but some areas could still see up to 40mm of rain by the end of the day.

The ECMWF model showing total precipitation over 24 hours up to 12am MT Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Going into Tuesday, there is still expected to be some pockets of heavier rain that will continue during the morning. However, the remaining rain will gradually taper off through the day, ending by Wednesday morning.

By the time the rain comes to an end Wednesday morning, more than 50mm of rain is expected to have fallen over a large portion of Alberta. Along the Highway 2 corridor and extending north of Edmonton, 75-100mm of rain is expected to fall and potentially over 100mm locally. The heaviest rain will fall at an average of 3-5mm/hr, but there could possibly be pockets of intense rain falling at 10-15mm/hr, which could really drive these totals up.

Seeing as this is an event that will occur multiple days, it’s possible that there could be a shift in where the rain ends up falling between the time that this forecast is posted (Friday evening) and Monday, in particular. We will be watching how the system sets up and if there are any major changes, we’ll be sure to keep you updated! Nonetheless, this is expected to make a huge impact to the fire danger across much of Alberta.

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Real Taste of Summer for Alberta & Saskatchewan as Temperatures Soar into the 30s with Severe Thunderstorm Risk

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It was only a little over a week ago that we had snow falling across parts of the Prairies. Now, Mother Nature is treating us to some weather whiplash and a true taste of summer, with temperatures climbing into the 30s in a heat wave that begins today and continues through the week.

This extended period heat is courtesy of a strong upper level ridge in the jet stream which will allow much warmer air from the States to surge northward. This ridge is expected to gradually extend eastward over the course of the week, which will then bring the heat into Manitoba and possibly deliver some relief in Eastern Alberta.

Along with the heat today, there will be the risk for severe thunderstorms to develop in Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible for Southern Alberta throughout the afternoon, but the greatest risk of severe weather begins with storms that develop later in the afternoon and early evening in both provinces, as well as in Montana. Storms that form during this time will likely be severe as they track northwestward, but as we get later into the evening and overnight hours, they should weaken and become non-severe.

Strong wind gusts in excess of 100km/h are the main threat from today’s severe thunderstorms, but there will also be a possibility of up to nickel-sized hail. There is a chance that there might be enough capping in the atmosphere today that storms could struggle to develop so we will certainly be keeping a close watch on how things shape up over the coming hours.

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Tornado Tuesday Could Bring Damaging Storms to Southern Ontario With Strong Severe Threat

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After an active, severe weather day on Monday that left widespread damage across parts of Central Ontario, especially throughout cottage country, another volatile day is shaping up across Southern Ontario.

In fact, Tuesday’s severe weather risk could end up being even stronger than Monday’s in some areas, particularly across Southwestern Ontario extending northeast toward Lake Simcoe and portions of the Golden Horseshoe.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours, bringing the potential for all modes of severe weather. This includes damaging wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, hail up to ping pong ball size and the risk for a few tornadoes.

The primary area of concern stretches from Midland southwest toward Sarnia. Conditions in this corridor may support the development of supercells during the early stages of storm development. Supercells are rotating thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, very large hail and destructive wind gusts.

This early stage of the event is when the tornado and hail threat is expected to be at its highest, as storms remain isolated and are able to fully tap into the warm, unstable and highly sheared environment in place across the region.

As these storms track north and east through the evening hours, they are expected to gradually transition into a more linear storm mode. In other words, the isolated storms may begin to merge together into a squall line or broken line of embedded thunderstorms as they approach the Golden Horseshoe during the early evening.

At that point, the primary threat would shift away from tornadoes and large hail and toward widespread damaging wind gusts. However, isolated tornadoes can still occur within these types of storm lines through quick spin-ups along the leading edge, even if that is no longer the dominant concern.

The severe weather threat is expected to diminish fairly quickly after sunset, likely between 9 and 10 PM, as the loss of daytime heating weakens the atmosphere’s ability to sustain intense thunderstorms.

Behind the storms, a cold front is expected to sweep through the province overnight, bringing a sharp end to Southern Ontario’s first heat event of the year. By Wednesday morning, some areas could be waking up to temperatures back down in the single digits.

SIMULATED RADAR - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Based on the latest simulated radar data, isolated thunderstorms are expected to begin developing along a line extending from Midland southward toward Sarnia around 6 PM. However, that timing could still shift, especially since these setups can sometimes initiate earlier than forecast.

If storms are able to develop earlier in the afternoon, they would have access to an even more favourable environment, potentially increasing the severe weather risk.

Regardless of exactly when storms first form, the expectation is that they will remain fairly isolated for the first few hours of their lifespan as they track east of Lake Huron and northeast toward regions surrounding Lake Simcoe.

There is particular concern for the Midland to Kawartha Lakes corridor, where several model runs continue to indicate the potential for a dominant supercell to develop and track through the region.

Given that the strongest atmospheric conditions are expected to overlap in this area, any storm that develops there could become quite intense quickly, with the potential for tornadoes and very large hail.

Additional severe thunderstorms may also develop farther southwest and track through areas including London, Kitchener, Orangeville and Barrie during the dinner hour.

Farther east, a few isolated storms may also develop near Bancroft and the Ottawa Valley. However, the environment in those areas does not currently appear to be quite as favourable for widespread severe weather, so confidence in storm intensity there remains lower.

SIMULATED RADAR - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As the evening progresses and daylight fades, the isolated cells are expected to begin merging together into a more organized line of storms while gradually weakening as they approach the Greater Toronto Area.

These storms could certainly remain severe into the evening hours, but the primary threat would likely transition toward damaging wind gusts, which is common with linear storm events.

That does not mean the tornado threat disappears entirely though. An isolated QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out within the line as it tracks eastward through the evening.

QLCS stands for “quasi-linear convective system,” which is essentially a line of thunderstorms capable of producing brief, fast-forming tornadoes embedded within the line itself. These tornadoes are often difficult to detect and can develop with little warning.

The hail threat, however, is expected to decrease significantly by this stage of the event as storms lose their isolated structure and strong updrafts.

Overall, the severe weather risk should come to a fairly quick end shortly after sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes. While a few overnight thunderstorms may linger behind the main line, they are expected to remain below severe limits.

ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE (°C) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

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Looking ahead to the rest of the week, Southern Ontario’s brief taste of summer-like weather is set to come to an abrupt end behind Tuesday night’s cold front.

Temperatures are expected to tumble overnight, with some parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario potentially waking up to single-digit temperatures by Wednesday morning. In fact, there may even be some frost risk later this week across portions of Central Ontario as cooler air settles back into the province.

Multi-Day Severe Storm and Tornado Risk Targets Southern Ontario Alongside Summer-Like Heat

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Southern Ontario is about to get its first real taste of summer weather in 2026, and it’s arriving with a potentially stormy side effect.

Temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 20s and even near 30°C in some areas on both Monday and Tuesday as a surge of warm and humid air spreads across the province. While this early-season heatwave will be relatively brief, it’s expected to create a volatile atmosphere capable of producing two consecutive days of severe thunderstorms across parts of Southern Ontario.

From large hail and damaging wind gusts to the possibility of isolated tornadoes, there’s a lot to track over the next 48 hours. Our team will be providing extensive live coverage throughout both severe weather risks on our YouTube channel, with real-time storm tracking, warning updates, radar analysis and live storm chasing coverage as storms develop. If you’re looking for in-depth storm coverage in Ontario, Instant Weather will be the place to be over the next two days.

The first round of potentially severe weather is expected to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours on Monday as strong storms over Michigan begin to track into the Lake Huron and Manitoulin Island area around 3-6 PM. These storms are likely to merge into a single line with embedded cells as they cross the Bruce Peninsula and into regions around the northern and eastern shoreline of Georgian Bay. Early in their lifespan, they could present all storm hazards, including damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of toonies.

As these storms move into Central Ontario, including much of Ontario’s cottage country such as Muskoka, North Bay and Algonquin Park, the environment could become capable of supporting a brief spin-up tornado. There is still some uncertainty regarding the tornado risk as some models suggest the storms may arrive later in the evening, after the most favourable tornado environment begins to weaken.

A secondary cluster of storms may also approach regions further south and west, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the eastern Lake Huron shoreline during the late afternoon and early evening hours. At this point, damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threat in these areas, while the hail and tornado risk looks lower, although it can never be completely ruled out.

As these clusters of storms track northeast, they are expected to gradually weaken by the late evening as the daytime heating fuelling them begins to fade away. Due to this, there remains some uncertainty regarding how far east the severe risk will extend, as it will largely depend on how quickly the storms move before losing access to the strongest instability.

We have gone with a slight (level 2 out of 5) severe thunderstorm risk for locations including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, Sarnia, Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Hanover, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Collingwood, Midland, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Britt, Manitoulin Island, Sudbury, North Bay, Algonquin Park and Deep River. This is the area most likely to experience the strongest storms today, but it’s important to remember that not everyone within the risk zone will necessarily see severe weather.

A marginal (level 1 out of 5) severe thunderstorm risk includes London, St. Thomas, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Brantford, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville, Barrie, Orillia, Bancroft, Pembroke and Renfrew. If severe weather develops in these areas, it will most likely be isolated damaging wind gusts associated with weakening storms during the evening hours.

Non-severe thunderstorms are also possible for the Greater Toronto Area and parts of Eastern Ontario. While widespread severe weather is not expected there at this time, any storms that do develop could still produce frequent lightning, heavy downpours and locally gusty winds.

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Turning towards Tuesday, the overall severe weather setup may become even more favourable and widespread, but confidence in storm development itself remains lower.

A very warm and unstable atmosphere is expected to build across Southern Ontario throughout the afternoon and evening hours. If storms are able to form, they could rapidly intensify and become severe across Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe and areas surrounding Lake Simcoe, along with Central and Eastern Ontario. This setup would support all severe weather hazards, including damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

However, forecast models continue to struggle with exactly where storms will initiate and whether they will develop at all. That uncertainty is preventing a more aggressive severe weather outlook at this time.

Current indications suggest isolated thunderstorms may first begin developing around Grey-Bruce during the mid-afternoon hours before slowly tracking southeast toward regions around Lake Simcoe between roughly 2-5 PM. Additional thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest and along the Lake Erie shoreline later in the day.

Like Monday, these storms will be heavily dependent on daytime heating and atmospheric instability. Once the sun begins to set around 8-9 PM, any storms that have developed are expected to gradually weaken fairly quickly.

At this time, it appears the Ottawa Valley may remain outside the main severe weather risk on Tuesday. However, that could still change in our final outlook as confidence increases regarding storm development and storm coverage. The atmosphere across Eastern Ontario will still be somewhat supportive of marginally severe thunderstorms, but confidence is currently not high enough to formally include those regions within the isolated severe risk area.

Victoria Day to Bring Early Tease of Summer to Southern Ontario With 30°C Heat and Severe Storm Risk on Monday

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After a chilly and wet start to May across Southern Ontario, it finally looks like summer is ready to make an appearance, just in time for the Victoria Day long weekend.

The first half of the month has certainly felt more like an extension of early spring than the lead-up to summer. We’ve dealt with multiple rounds of widespread frost, temperatures consistently running below seasonal, and even reports of wet flurries in some areas.

While we did get a brief taste of severe weather with Canada’s first confirmed tornado of 2026 on May 9th near Lucan (northwest of London), the summer-like warmth has been hard to come by. That’s about to change!

The Victoria Day long weekend, often considered the “unofficial start of summer” in Ontario, is expected to fully live up to the title this year. A significant warm-up is set to spread across Southern Ontario through the weekend, peaking on Monday with widespread summer-like heat and humidity.

The hottest temperatures on Monday are expected to be found in Deep Southwestern Ontario extending into the western GTA and Niagara region, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Grand Bend, Woodstock, Brantford, Hamilton and Niagara Falls. Daytime highs in these areas are likely to range between 30-33°C with humidex values potentially approaching 35°C at times.

While many will be excited to finally enjoy some summer-like weather, it’s important to remember that the first major heat event of the season can be particularly stressful on the body. Be sure to stay hydrated, limit strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Pets can also quickly overheat on hot pavement, so it’s a good idea to check surfaces before heading out for a walk.

For much of the rest of Southern Ontario, daytime highs are expected to range between 27-30°C, with the humidity making it feel into the low 30s. This includes Toronto, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, Kingston and Ottawa.

The higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands are likely to remain a few degrees cooler, with areas like Orangeville and Shelburne expected to top out closer to 24-27°C.

Meanwhile, temperatures directly along portions of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shoreline may stay noticeably cooler thanks to developing lake breezes. Southwest winds coming off the still-cool lake waters will help suppress temperatures near the shoreline through the afternoon hours.

As a result, locations such as Picton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Fort Erie, Port Colborne, Port Dover, Turkey Point and Leamington could struggle to climb much beyond the low 20s despite the intense heat further inland.

A similar cooling effect is expected along the Bruce Peninsula, Manitoulin Island and parts of the northern Georgian Bay shoreline. Locations such as Britt, Manitoulin Island and Tobermory are also expected to remain closer to 20°C.

The heat is expected to continue into Tuesday with similar daytime highs before a cold front sweeps through later in the week, returning temperatures closer to seasonal or even slightly below seasonal levels.

Another concern with the return of summer-like heat will be the increasing fire danger across parts of the province. According to the latest forecast from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System, portions of Deep Southwestern Ontario could see fire danger levels reach high or even extreme on Monday, thanks to the combination of hot temperatures, dry conditions and gusty winds.

With many people planning campfires and fireworks for the Victoria Day long weekend, it’s especially important to use extra caution with any open flames. Be sure to follow all local burning regulations and fire bans, and check with your local municipality before setting off fireworks or lighting a fire. Under high or extreme fire danger conditions, even a small spark can quickly spread and become difficult to control.

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With the return of summer-like heat also comes the return of increasing atmospheric instability, which can help fuel thunderstorms. The next few days are expected to feature multiple opportunities for thunderstorms across parts of Southern Ontario.

The first round is expected Sunday night into Monday morning as a batch of non-severe nocturnal thunderstorms potentially tracks through areas near Lake Huron extending into Central and Eastern Ontario.

That activity may help set the stage for another round of storms later Monday afternoon and evening. At this point, the greatest risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears to be focused east of Georgian Bay around Muskoka, Parry Sound and Algonquin Park. A line of storms may also develop over Michigan and track into Deep Southwestern Ontario later Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the exact intensity remains unclear by the time it reaches the border.

Locations that could potentially see isolated severe storms on Monday include Goderich, Kincardine, Hanover, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Collingwood, Midland, Orillia, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Britt, North Bay, Sudbury, Algonquin Park, Bancroft, Pembroke and Deep River.

It remains too early to determine the exact storm mode and whether any tornado risk will develop. For now, all severe weather hazards remain possible including damaging wind gusts, large hail and torrential rainfall.

A more detailed severe weather outlook, including specific risk categories and hazard breakdowns, will be issued Sunday night or Monday morning once higher resolution forecast models come into range and confidence improves on the exact storm setup.

We’re also monitoring the potential for a more widespread severe thunderstorm risk on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region later in the day.

However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the cold front. If it arrives later Tuesday afternoon or evening, there would likely be enough daytime heating available to support stronger storms. If the front arrives overnight or earlier in the day, it could significantly reduce instability and limit the severe weather potential.

At this point, isolated thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, but the exact location and intensity of the strongest storms remains uncertain.

🔔⛈️ Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today Focused on Southwestern Ontario with Damaging Winds, Large Hail & an Isolated Tornado Cannot be Ruled Out

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Southern Ontario is facing a fairly widespread thunderstorm risk this afternoon and evening, Saturday, May 9, 2026 with the potential for isolated severe thunderstorm activity.

The strongest potential for severe thunderstorms will be in the yellow region, especially between roughly 3 and 7 PM across deep Southwestern Ontario. Storms in this area could bring damaging wind gusts, large hail around 1 to 3 cm in size, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. Isolated tornado activity cannot be ruled out in the yellow region today as well, so we’ll be live streaming on our YouTube channel to monitor for any signs of organized rotation.

In the green region, the main threats will be strong wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall, which could create difficult travel conditions for many. There is a small chance that wind gusts or hail in the green region could briefly reach severe limits, which is why we’ve highlighted it for an isolated severe risk.

We’ll also be sending out Environment Canada’s official watches and warnings through our free InstantWeather app, along with possible custom notifications if we spot anything worth notifying.

And in some exciting news, we’re planning to launch our completely revamped free app on June 1st! It includes dark mode, a widget, and a full rebuild from the ground up for better performance, reduced battery usage, and an improved experience overall. We’ve also built the original app experience into the new version for those who prefer it. :)

More details coming ASAP. Woohoo!

Buckle Up: Parts of Saskatchewan & Manitoba About to Get Hammered By an Intense Spring Storm This Week

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We may be in the latter half of April, but winter is still hanging on across the Prairies. On Wednesday, a massive low pressure system will begin to develop which will bring chaos to Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the next few days.

Unfortunately, we’re looking at all precipitation types in both provinces, with some places possibly expecting full-on blizzard conditions, while others could see temperatures in the 20s and severe thunderstorms. This makes for a very complicated forecast, but we’ll do our best to break it down for you here.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 12pm cst/1pm CT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7pm cst/8pm CT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

An area of light to moderate rainfall began to move into Northern Saskatchewan from Alberta on Wednesday morning, which then started to transition to snow before the lunch hour.

Through the afternoon and into the evening, the area of snowfall will expand and spread eastward as the low strengthens and becomes more organized. Meanwhile, the trailing rainfall will make its way into Central and Southern Saskatchewan.

The snowfall will be fairly light at first, but there is expected to be some pockets of more moderate snowfall during the evening. However, things will really start to ramp up as we get later in the evening and continuing into the overnight hours, just as the leading edge of the storm will start to cross into Northern Manitoba.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 12am cst/1am CT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6am cst/7Am CT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

This is when the heaviest snow will start to develop, falling at a rate of up to 3cm/hr, and it is expected to persist well into the afternoon across a significant swath of Northern Saskatchewan.

Meanwhile, the heavy rain that is expected to track through West Central and Southwest Saskatchewan overnight Wednesday will start to transition over to snow Thursday morning, as cold air from the Arctic is pulled in around the backside of the system. A quick 5-15cm of snow will be dumped over much of this region by the late afternoon/early evening, at which time this area of snowfall will begin to dissipate.

Also during the early morning hours, freezing rain and ice pellets will be added to the mixture of rain and snow in Northeastern Saskatchewan and into Northern Manitoba. The freezing rain could be quite heavy at times across a fairly narrow path that stretches from approximately Cumberland House and Flin Flon to the Ontario border.

Ice accretions above 5mm, and even as high as 10mm, are possible by the early afternoon Thursday, which has prompted Environment Canada to issue Winter Storm and Freezing Rain Warnings alongside the Snowfall Warnings. This is a significant amount of ice buildup that will likely damage both trees and powerlines and could lead to prolonged power outages for the area, so be prepared.

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Environment Canada Thunderstorm Lookout Map for Thursday morning

The situation across Southern Manitoba and into the Southeast corner of Saskatchewan will be remarkably different. Late Wednesday evening and into the early morning hours of Thursday, there will be the risk of some elevated thunderstorms, particularly to the east of Brandon, that could have the potential to produce up to Toonie-sized hail.

Temperatures will then climb into the upper teens and low 20s in the afternoon in this region before the cold front slides through during the late afternoon and evening. This will trigger development of additional, marginally severe thunderstorms from Winnipeg eastward.

Environment Canada Thunderstorm Lookout Map for Thursday Afternoon and evening

The thunderstorms will likely form in lines, but an individual supercell or two could be possible. These storms may produce strong wind gusts up to 90km/h, Toonie-sized, and the possibility of a tornado can not be ruled out.

As of Wednesday afternoon, this thunderstorm development is conditional on a few factors so if, when, and where they might occur could change. We will definitely be watching the situation closely.

Outside of this area, to the north and west, there is a lesser risk from thunderstorms throughout the day, with strong wind gusts being the main concern. We will go into more detail about the wind later in the forecast.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7pm cst/8pm CT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5Am cst/6Am CT on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

As we get into Thursday evening, the system begins to lose some organization in Saskatchewan, while the heavier snow sets up in Northern Manitoba.

Overnight, the low will start to track northward and it will continue along with path through the day Friday. During this time, there is a possibility of brief freezing drizzle in Central Manitoba, but very little ice would build up.

The heavy snow will continue to fall in Northern Manitoba into the afternoon, while large areas of lighter snow will wrap around the low and settle over Saskatchewan for the majority of the day.

By Friday evening, the entire system will start to fall apart and the snow will taper off overnight. A few flurries will linger through Saturday morning, which may add a centimetre or two to the total accumulations across both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

By the time the storm has finished, a total of 25-50cm of fresh snow is expected to fall across a large stretch of Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. An area of 15-25cm will extend southward into Central Saskatchewan while most of the rest of the province will be in the 5-15cm range.

Heavy rain is also a concern for areas to the south of the heaviest snowfall. Rainfall totals approaching 30mm could lead to some localized flooding, especially in areas where the ground is still partially frozen.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6pm cst/7pm CT on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Precipitation will not be the only hazard this storm brings; strong wind gusts will also be a concern.

Strong wind gusts up to 90km/h, and possibly up to 100km/h in the Cypress Hills area, will develop this evening in Southeastern Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan. These strong winds will continue in this region through to the morning before they start to travel eastward. They will cross Southern Saskatchewan through the day and into Southwest Manitoba by the evening, before they die down overnight.

Further north, where the heavy snow is slated to fall, the winds will not be quite as strong, topping out at around 70km/h. This still poses a major issue as it will likely lead to widespread whiteouts, and even crossing the threshold of being a blizzard, across Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. These will be treacherous conditions to attempt to travel in this region, so it will be best to postpone any unnecessary travel until the storm is over.

The ECMWF model showing Maximum Wind gust by 12pm CST/1PM CT Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

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A One-Two Punch of Winter Weather Could Bring Up to 15cm of Snow to Much of Central & Southern Alberta This Week

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As is to be expected for April in Alberta, winter’s grip isn’t quite ready to let go, despite some mild, spring-like conditions having already made brief appearances.

This week, two separate systems will bring fresh snow across Central and Southern Alberta, and into parts of Northern Alberta. Even though these two systems will originate from different places, the tail end of the first system will meld into the leading edge of the second. As a result, we have opted to create a single forecast for both storms.

The snow will begin to fall early Tuesday morning in Jasper National Park and into the Grande Cache area, where it will fairly light and scattered for most of the day. Some pockets snow could stretch east towards Edson and Drayton Valley during the morning, but it is expected to be mixed with rain, which will limit any accumulating snow.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6Am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

During the evening is when we expect to really start to see precipitation pushing eastward across the province. As with the possibility of this in the morning, the precipitation will fall as rain initially, since it will be above freezing, but it will change over to snow overnight as the temperatures fall.

This won’t be a very wide band of precipitation, impacting the southern extent of Northern Alberta as far north as Slave Lake. A shift in the track since Sunday afternoon means that the bulk of this snow is now expected to stay north of Edmonton. The band of snow will settle over this region overnight and through to Wednesday afternoon.

The steady light to moderate snowfall during this period will result in 5-15cm of accumulation across much of the impacted region, with up to 25cm possible in the Grande Cache area as a result of the prolonged snow beginning on Tuesday.

The ECMWF model showing precipitation type and intensity at 1pm MT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

In the late afternoon, snow from the second system will start to make its way into the Southern Rockies from the southwest. Meanwhile the band of snow to the north will begin to sink southward. These two areas of snow will combine, leading to one large area of snowfall developing over most of Central and Southern Alberta in the late evening.

This large region of snowfall will maintain its position over the region into Thursday morning. Then in the afternoon, the snow will start to gradually taper off as the entire system continues to track eastward across the Prairies. The snow is expected to completely exit the province by midnight.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6Am MT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The combination of these two systems, which will impact different parts of the province, means that snow will end up accumulating over a considerable portion of Alberta.

As previously mentioned, the first system is expected to bring 5-15cm to parts of Northern Alberta, while the Grande Cache area may see up to 25cm. The amount of snow that falls in this part of the province will be very dependent on when the transition from rain to snow occurs Tuesday night; a delayed shift would limit how much snow ends up falling.

As far as the remnants of the first system merging with the second are concerned, the steady rate of snowfall will also lead to 5-15cm of snow falling over the majority of Central and Southern Alberta. There are a couple of exceptions, though.

It’s looking likely that before the band of snow impacting Northern Alberta starts to track southward Wednesday evening, the snow might taper off slightly in the east. This would reduce the amount of snow that accumulates in a stretch from Edmonton to Lloydminster.

There is also possibility that there could be some rain falling instead of snow in the Southeast corner of the province during the early morning hours of Thursday, which would also greatly reduce the amount of accumulating snow. However, there is still some disagreement between weather models on whether this occurs. Nonetheless, these two possibilities are reflected on our forecast map as areas that could receive less than 5cm.

It’s also worth noting that the snow could be heavy at times in eastern parts of Central and Southern Alberta as the second system hits the region. Some weather models are showing that this could lead to some areas receiving over 15cm of snow. While this is a possibility on a local scale, the snow in this region is expected to melt on contact with the warm ground at first, before it eventually starts to stick. This should therefore keep accumulations below the 15cm mark.

Since the arrival of the second system is still 48 hours away from when this forecast is originally being posted (on Monday evening), it is possible that we could see some changes in its track and the amount of snow it could bring. We will continue to monitor the situation and have an updated forecast if there are any significant changes.

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Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Tuesday, April 7, 2026

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Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: Bus and transportation service is cancelled to Peterborough and Northumberland County schools.

• Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: School Bussing is cancelled in the East Parry Sound South zone

• Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Zone 4 Madawaska area transportation services have been cancelled.

• Tri-Board: School bus and taxi transportation is cancelled in North Hastings & Centre Hastings weather zones today.

French Schools

• Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Busses are cancelled for schools in Peterborough

• Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: School Bussing is cancelled in the East Parry Sound South zone

Up to 5 to 10 cm of Snow and Wind Chills Near -15°C as ‘Third Winter’ Arrives in Southern Ontario This Week

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NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Since the arrival of astronomical spring, the weather has certainly matched the season across Southern Ontario. We’ve seen multiple days of double digit temperatures along with the typical spring thunderstorms. However, as we head into the first full week of April, it appears that our ‘3rd winter’ is on the horizon, bringing with it a blast of cold and snowy weather that many thought was behind us for the season.

The good news is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. This blast of wintry weather will only be temporary, with a return to more seasonal conditions expected towards the end of the week.

It certainly isn’t going without a fight. A heavy burst of snow late Monday and continuing into Tuesday may lead to tricky travel conditions as people head back to school and work after the Easter long weekend. You’ll also need to dust off those winter coats again as temperatures plunge overnight Monday, bringing a brief return to wind chills near -15°C in some parts of Southern Ontario.

While we aren’t expecting widespread significant snowfall accumulation from this late season system, the timing could still leave roads snow covered and slushy ahead of the Tuesday morning commute. The snow will fall within a short timeframe and could be quite heavy at times, leading to reduced visibility and some blowing snow.

Most areas are only expecting to see a few centimetres of snow by the time it tapers off early Tuesday afternoon. However, some pockets, especially across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, could exceed the 5 cm mark and end up seeing between 5 and 10 cm.

The main caveat is that temperatures will still be near the freezing mark when the bulk of the snow is falling late Monday into early Tuesday morning. This means some of it may melt on contact with the ground before being able to accumulate. As a result, actual totals will vary significantly and could fall short of the 5 to 10 cm mark in some areas if temperatures end up slightly warmer.

PRECIP TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

An area of heavier snow is expected to track into regions around Lake Huron and into Northeastern Ontario sometime during Monday evening. This could start as a rain and snow mix with temperatures still near freezing, especially near Lake Erie and Deep Southwestern Ontario, but should switch over to snow later in the evening.

Even though we are less than six hours away from the start of the snow, models still disagree on the exact intensity and placement. There also appear to be dry slots within the precipitation, which could lead to some areas getting completely missed. At the same time, some moisture from the lakes may enhance snowfall rates in localized areas.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By the pre dawn hours on Tuesday, the snow will become more widespread, extending around the Lake Huron shoreline and into Central and Eastern Ontario.

The heaviest pockets of snow appear likely to track from Muskoka through Peterborough and into the Kingston corridor. This could lead to rapid accumulation if temperatures are cold enough to limit melting. Expect poor driving conditions overnight and early Tuesday morning in this area, with sudden whiteout conditions possible.

Around Lake Huron, we could see a brief return of lake effect streamers affecting the London, Goderich and Kincardine area through the morning hours. This may also include the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay.

Wind gusts approaching 50 to 70 km/h may lead to blowing and drifting snow in these areas. While overall accumulation is expected to be limited, even a small amount of snow in exposed rural areas can make travel difficult when paired with strong wind gusts.

We are expecting all of the snow to taper off by early Tuesday afternoon as the main system moves out of Eastern Ontario. Winds will also begin to lighten, shutting off any lingering lake effect activity from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Wind chill - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Even if you don’t see accumulating snow, you will still get a taste of Southern Ontario’s third winter over the next few days in the form of bitterly cold temperatures.

It will pale in comparison to the cold we dealt with earlier this year, but it may feel more brutal after many areas hit 20°C just a few days ago. Now, we’re looking at temperatures between -5°C and -10°C to start the day on Tuesday. Factoring in the wind chill, many areas will feel into the negative double digits, with parts of Central and Northeastern Ontario ranging from -15°C to -20°C Tuesday morning.

Thankfully, temperatures are expected to quickly improve by Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs will inch back above the freezing mark and could even reach double digits by the end of the week in some areas.

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

As mentioned, this event will feature significant variation in snowfall totals across the region, making it difficult to pinpoint exact amounts. This is due to both the scattered nature of the snow and temperatures hovering near freezing, along with ground warmth from the recent mild weather. That means not everyone will see accumulating snow, even within the highest forecast zone.

The zone of highest accumulation is expected to include much of Central Ontario extending into Eastern Ontario south of the Ottawa Valley. This includes Kingston, Belleville, Peterborough, Bancroft, Orillia, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Algonquin Park, Parry Sound, Sudbury and Elliot Lake. These areas could see general totals of 5 to 10 cm, with localized pockets potentially exceeding that up to 15 cm. Not everyone within this zone is guaranteed to see 5 cm, as local temperatures will determine how much of the snow is able to stick.

A few centimetres of snow are expected around the Lake Huron and Southern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Hanover, Collingwood and Barrie. Around 2 to 5 cm is possible here, but due to the nature of lake effect snow, some localized areas could see up to 8 cm, while others may get completely missed.

A trace to a light dusting of snow is expected for Deep Southwestern Ontario into the Golden Horseshoe, along with the Ottawa Valley. Much of this is unlikely to stick to the ground.

No matter how much snow you receive, it will almost certainly be gone within 24 hours thanks to temperatures rising above freezing by Wednesday. That means you likely won’t need to bring those shovels back out of storage.