Second Day of Temperatures Above 30°C Will Continue to Bake Southern Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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Monday will mark the second day of our heatwave in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. We will once again have a large area expecting temperatures above 30°C, and above 35°C temperatures are possible in a small pocket of Southern Manitoba that includes Winnipeg. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in place from Environment Canada for parts of Southern Manitoba for daytime highs up to the mid 30s and overnight lows only dropping down to the mid teens.

With extreme heat, it’s important to limit strenuous outdoor activities, if possible, or take multiple breaks and drink water often to protect yourself from heat exhaustion and stroke. Early signs of heat exhaustion include: headache, nausea, dizziness, thirst, dark urine and intense fatigue. In the presence of these symptoms, stop all activities and hydrate. Heat stroke, on the other hand, is much more serious. Heat stroke is most identified by confusion and loss of consciousness so make sure to seek immediate medical condition if someone is showing these symptoms.

Marginal Risk for Thunderstorms in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Beginning Sunday Evening

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With the arrival of the first heat wave of the year to Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba this weekend, we’re also looking at our first real threat of severe thunderstorms for the season.

Isolated storms are expected to develop along the American border in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba this evening, starting around 5-7pm. The storms will travel northeastward into both provinces throughout the evening and into the overnight hours.

Models are suggesting that the environment could be favourable for the development of supercells, but further analysis puts the development of severe storms in question and storms could remain sub-severe. One particular area of interest for possible severe storm development will be in Southeastern Saskatchewan and through the Westman and Interlake Regions.

If severe storms end up developing this evening, the overall threats are expected to be limited. These storms could produce small hail and strong wind gusts, while the possibility of a tornado is unlikely.

First Heat Wave of the Season Will Bring Three Days of Record Breaking Temperatures to Southern Manitoba

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There is a low has that been passing through the Prairies over the past couple of days, which will cross into Manitoba overnight Saturday. It will set up over the region for several days, drawing in hot air from the south. This will lead to an extended period with daytime highs in in the low to mid 30s and overnight lows in the mid teens, triggering Extreme Heat Warnings already being issued by Environment Canada.

With extreme heat, it’s important to limit strenuous outdoor activities, if possible, or take multiple breaks and drink water often to protect yourself from heat exhaustion and stroke. Early signs of heat exhaustion include: headache, nausea, dizziness, thirst, dark urine and intense fatigue. In the presence of these symptoms, stop all activities and hydrate. Heat stroke, on the other hand, is much more serious. Heat stroke is most identified by confusion and loss of consciousness so make sure to seek immediate medical condition if someone is showing these symptoms.

First Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk of the Season in Southern Ontario on Tuesday With Tornadoes Possible

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After a gruelling winter filled with relentless snow squalls, powerful winter storms, and a major ice storm to top it all off, we are finally shifting gears into more typical spring and summer-like weather across Southern Ontario. But with the warmer air comes the return of severe thunderstorms, something Southwestern Ontario has already gotten a small taste of over the past few weeks.

We have been closely tracking the potential for our first strong severe weather threat of the season on Tuesday. Model guidance has been consistently highlighting the potential for a very active environment, one capable of supporting tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. That risk still looks to be on track, although there remains some disagreement between models on exactly where the strongest environment will set up.

At this time, we believe the strongest severe weather risk will focus across parts of Southwestern Ontario, Central Ontario, and into Eastern Ontario. Other areas across Southern Ontario will still carry a marginal to slight risk, meaning a few severe storms could pop up, but the widespread threat will be lower outside the main zone.

Tuesday’s possible storm threats include one or two tornadoes, large hail — potentially up to the size of toonies or even timbits — widespread damaging wind gusts over 90-100 km/h, and heavy rainfall that could cause localized flooding in some spots.

The storm risk will kick off early Tuesday morning as an area of convection moves across the region between 6:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. Most of these morning storms should remain non-severe, but we can't rule out a rogue severe cell, especially in setups like this. Where these morning storms track and how quickly they clear out will be important to watch, as leftover clouds or rain could limit how unstable the atmosphere becomes later in the day.

By the early afternoon hours, the environment is expected to rapidly become more favorable for severe weather. Areas along the Lake Huron shoreline will likely be the first to feel the effects, with the risk then spreading into parts of Central Ontario.

Even though we are confident that the setup is capable of producing severe storms, it’s important to stress that storms actually have to form to take advantage of the environment. Not everyone in the higher-risk zone will necessarily see a storm. These will be isolated events, meaning only a small percentage of the region will be directly impacted.

The highest tornado risk will likely occur earlier in the day across Southwestern and Central Ontario, when individual storms (known as discrete supercells) can remain separated and feed off the prime environment around them.

As the afternoon progresses and storms track further eastward, we expect that they will start to merge into more of a line, which would shift the threat more towards damaging winds and heavy rain rather than tornadoes and large hail.

By late afternoon into early evening, the severe weather risk will push eastward into the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario. The good news is that the risk should wind down quickly after sunset, which occurs around 8:00 p.m.

There could still be some leftover showers or weak storms lingering into the evening, especially across Eastern Ontario, but the threat for damaging weather will rapidly diminish once the sun goes down.

We’ll continue to monitor this setup closely and provide updates as new data becomes available. Stay tuned, and as always, make sure you have a way to receive alerts if storms develop in your area.

Download our free app to instantly get any Environment Canada alerts and our own custom notifications pushed to your phone. We are planning to go live to cover any storms that develop throughout the day on Tuesday. Please subscribe to our YouTube channel here so you can be notified when we go live.

REGIONAL BREAKDOWN

🌪️ ‘Tornado Tuesday’: Confidence Continues to Build For Significant Severe Thunderstorms Next Week in Ontario ⛈️

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TUESDAY, APRIL 29, 2025: Confidence continues to build for the risk of significant severe thunderstorms and tornado activity this Tuesday. Since our first article posted on Friday morning where we discussed this potential, we’ve continued to carefully monitor a strengthening trend on the forecast models. And at this point, we’re trending up from what initially looked like an Enhanced Risk (3/5), towards an isolated Significant Risk (4/5) based on the latest data. What we’re expecting at this point is isolated strong-to-significant severe thunderstorms across parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario Tuesday afternoon & evening that could possibly extend into the GTHA and parts of Eastern Ontario overnight, depending on the timing and speed of the cold front.

A lot can still change four days out but the consistency of the model data is why we here at InstantWeather have been discussing this for several days and why even Environment Canada has issued a preliminary forecast map today, discussing some of the risks on Tuesday including 100km/h damaging wind gusts and 2-4cm hail as you can see in the image below.

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Environment Canada, in their first forecast map for this event has not mentioned a tornado risk. This is likely because we’re four days out but based on the data that we’ll be reviewing below, we’d be very surprised if they did not add a tornado risk in their forecast update tomorrow. Along with this forecast map, they wrote:

”A cold front will track east across northeastern and southern Ontario. By the afternoon, severe thunderstorms may develop with the main threats being strong wind gusts and large hail.”

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🔎Model Data Review

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In the image above, we’re looking at the latest “NAM” model data for 5pm on Tuesday and what we’re reviewing is the “Supercell Index”. This gives us an idea of how potent the environment is for rotating storms, which can lead to damaging wind gusts, large hail, flooding, intense lightning and in some cases, tornadoes. In our previous article, we only saw an orange supercell risk which is roughly an “Enhanced” risk level (3/5). However, in the latest data we are now seeing the colour red, which is hinting at the potential for a “Significant” risk level (4/5).

And in the image below, we see what the “Supercell Index” looks like at 8pm from the same “NAM” model, continuing the strong environment into the evening hours and extending it further into Eastern Ontario.

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It’s still quite early but we’re now finally getting some higher quality data from the NAM model at 12km resolution and what you’re seeing above is simulated or “Future Radar” of how the event might play out. It’s still quite early and this could certainly change but it’s interesting to watch it evolve day-by-day. With this model run, the storms start to develop on the Lake Huron shoreline near the Kincardine and Goderich areas around 5pm. We do see some development up by Britt as well around that time. Again, this is just estimated and we could see a new solution to how this plays out each and every day leading up to Tuesday.

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By 8pm in the image above, the simulated NAM future radar is suggesting we could see several potent supercells tracking through parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario. In previous model runs, we have seen a large line of storms as well, which in some cases can limit the tornado risk. Although, we could end up dealing with multi-cell supercells with an environment this strong and those can most certainly produce strong, isolated tornadoes.

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And in this potential scenario from the NAM model, we still the storms expanding and tracking through deep Southwestern Ontario, Central Ontario and perhaps into parts of Eastern Ontario by 11pm. Typically, the later in the evening we get, the less we daytime heating we have to increase the severity of these storms but with how strong this environment is, it could be a late night for many of us and we’ll certainly be livestreaming as long as it takes to ensure everyone stays informed and safe.

If you’d like to get notified when we start livestreaming, subscribe to our YouTube channel for free and hit the bell icon to get notified when we go live.

And to get notified of any rotation detected, funnel cloud reports, tornado reports and Environment Canada watches & warnings, download our free mobile app InstantWeather on your phone or tablet.

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🤔Final Thoughts:

If this trend continues and this system does not decide to weaken all of the sudden (here’s hoping it does), Tuesday continues to look like a strong or potentially significant severe thunderstorm risk. All modes of severe weather could be on the table with damaging wind gusts, torrential rain, isolated flooding, large hail, intense lightning and the potential for isolated tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Here’s hoping that it weakens into a marginal risk or vanishes all together!

Having said that, please begin to review your storm safety plan and start discussing the potential for rescheduling your Tuesday afternoon/evening plans.

More details ASAP.

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Disclaimer: By using our services and any associated content, this means you implicitly agree to use the services and data available as is with no warranty issued or implied and should be used for informational purposes only. Any use of this data for decision making processes is done at the sole risk of the end user. Do not reproduce or disseminate our forecasts and content without explicit consent of Instant Weather, Inc.

Soggy Last Weekend of April Will Bring Over 50mm of Rain to Parts of the Maritimes

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As we come close to the end of the month, the April Showers will hit in full force this weekend, with at least 20mm of rain expected across the Maritimes by the end of Monday.

Light rain will start to push into New Brunswick from the west in the early morning hours of Saturday, tracking from southwest to northeast. This will be a brief first round of rain that will cross through New Brunswick and into PEI during the morning. In Northern New Brunswick, the cool air could result in some brief light snow falling during the morning, but we’re not expecting much accumulation and it will melt with rain that will follow.

The Annapolis Valley and Cumberland County could see a bit of rain along the southern edge of this initial band as it crosses the region, however, the majority of the rain will come in the following round.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 3AM AT Saturday

Not far behind the initial round, the main band of more widespread rain will make its way into the region beginning late Saturday morning. The rain will be very heavy at times as it crosses through the Maritimes for the remainder of the day and into Sunday afternoon.

In New Brunswick, the rain will be heavy during the afternoon and evening before becoming lighter later in the evening and ending overnight. Prince Edward Island can expect the heavier rain to begin in the evening, which will persist into Sunday morning before it tapers off in the early afternoon.

Nova Scotia will see the heaviest rain for an extended period of time with this system. The rain will intensify in Western Nova Scotia starting early Saturday evening and it will spread eastward across the province throughout the evening. It will continue overnight and for most of Sunday morning. It will start to taper off from west to east in the mid-morning, but some areas, particularly along the Atlantic Coast, can expect to see steady rainfall continue into the evening, leading to over 50mm falling.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), freezing rain (Pink), and Rain (Green) at 12AM aT Sunday

Mid-Sunday morning will see the return of some scattered showers across New Brunswick, which will reach PEI in the late afternoon and continue into early Monday morning. This final lingering band of light rain will push southeastward into Nova Scotia around sunrise Monday and will gradually dissipate in the afternoon and evening.

The entirety of the Maritimes can expect at least 20mm and a widespread 30-50mm is forecast for the region. In Western Nova Scotia, along the Atlantic Coast and into Cape Breton, the heaviest rain is expected, with periods of downpours, which will result in over 50mm of rain and even up to 75mm. If a downpour happens to settle over a particular area for a longer period, closer to 90mm of rainfall is not out of the question.

Strong wind gusts will accompany the rain, reaching up to 60km/h across much of the region Saturday night and Sunday morning. The winds will be stronger in parts of Nova Scotia, especially along the Atlantic Coast and through the Highlands, where gusts could exceed 70km/h, while gusts up to 100km/h are likely in northwestern Cape Breton.

Hopefully with all this rain and some warmer temperatures to end the month, we’ll see plenty of May Flowers!

🌪️ ‘Tornado Tuesday’ Might Make a Return in Southern Ontario Next Week ⛈️

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TUESDAY, APRIL 29, 2025: As I write this discussion (2am on Friday, April 25th, 2025), we’re quite a few days away from Tuesday, April 29th, 2025. Having said that, I’ve been carefully monitoring this strengthening trend on the forecast models for several days now and seeing them consistently suggesting an enhanced risk (3/5) for severe thunderstorms across much of Southern Ontario with the potential for isolated tornado activity. From Windsor, up through Barrie and perhaps even reaching parts of Eastern Ontario and the GTHA.

Typically, five days out is a lifetime for forecasting severe weather. Having said that, in rare circumstances you can see these strong environments coming from a mile away and this looks like this could be one of those events. Especially when we have a lot of data supporting the risk, which we’ll discuss further down the page.

Could this all change? You betcha. After more than a decade of forecasting severe weather in Ontario and across Canada, I’m no stranger to the potential for a “bust”. I could write this article and the entire system could vanish from the weather models. Tuesday could end up being just another typical spring day. Here’s hoping that’s the case. If, however, that is not the case and the trends we’re seeing in the models are correct, this is the type of event that requires getting the word out well in advance so that alternative plans can be considered and you can review your safety plan with your loved ones.

FRIDAY, APRIL 25, 2025: I should probably mention that we will have a risk for isolated thunderstorms today (Friday) and there is a marginal (low) risk for severe storms in deep southwestern Ontario later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Briefly severe hail and strong wind gusts are possible. At this point, it doesn’t look particularly intense but we’ll be keeping a close eye on it, nonetheless.

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🔎Reviewing Models & Available Data For Tuesday

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Typically, we like to compare the data from several different model systems. In this case, we’ll compare the American model, the European model and our own Canadian model. In the image above, we’re looking at the American model and what we’re reviewing is the severe weather “energy” that the storms are going to have available to them. The highest levels reaching almost 2,500 (in yellow/orange), which puts this event in the ‘Enhanced 3/5’ category, in my personal opinion.

For context, we can have marginal severe weather with energy levels as low as 500. And on the high-end, CAPE can reach as high as 5,000+ in the most extreme cases. So we’re somewhere in the middle, with totals potentially reaching greater than 1,000 and less than 3,000, at least, at this point.

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Above is the Euro model, showing similar strong values to the American model in the deep southwest at 2pm. But, as you’ll see below, the energy progresses further east as we approach 5pm on Tuesday.

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Above, we’ve got the 5pm timeframe from the Euro model. Showing organized energy values in place for the expected thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.

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While we’re taking a look at the European model, one interesting product they have is an estimated lightning density over several hours. As you can see in red, orange yellow and blue, quite a lot of thunderstorms are expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours, taking advantage of all that storm energy we discussed previously.

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Below, let’s take a look at the Canadian energy for Tuesday. For some reason, the data looks really blocky. Not sure why PivotalWeather.com (the model provider we’re using for these images) is processing the Canadian model this way but perhaps, it’s coming that way directly from Environment Canada.

Regardless, a similar trend is showing up on the Canadian model that we’re seeing on both the European and American models. And with that, we have what is considered “model agreement”. And it’s not just these three models, other forecasting products called ‘Ensembles’ have 30+ model members and the vast majority are showing a strong severe thunderstorm risk for Tuesday.

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This Canadian model image above is for 2pm on Tuesday. And similar to the European model data where we showed two separate timestamps (2pm and 5pm), this energy will push east, through the Barrie area and potentially into the GTHA and parts of Eastern Ontario through the afternoon and evening hours. Energy values look similar to the other two models, supporting the potential for an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms.

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Some other data worth noting in the image below is from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma. Not surprisingly, they are already showing a risk map for Tuesday, which they typically only show this far out when there is a strong system expected and a lot of agreement within the weather models.

You can see that southwestern Ontario gets highlighted in this risk area from Windsor, through Chatham-Kent and Sarnia, cutting off just shy of London. Having said that, the SPC’s only job is to forecast for the US. And as we’ve seen historically with them over the past decade, if they’re showing an extended range forecast that highlights parts of Southern Ontario, we could be in for quite the storm system much further into the Province than is shown below.

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And in the final image below, we’re looking at a Machine Learning (AI) based severe weather estimation from the US. In this case, they cut off the data at the international border but by simply using your imagination, it’s clear that Southern Ontario is included in this risk region.

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🤔Final Thoughts:

If these trends continue and this system does not decide to vanish from all the models suddenly (here’s hoping it does), Tuesday is shaping up to be a strong or potentially significant severe thunderstorm risk. All modes of severe weather could be on the table with damaging wind gusts, torrential rain, isolated flooding, large hail, intense lightning and the potential for isolated tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Here’s hoping that it weakens into a marginal risk or vanishes all together!

Having said that, now would be a good time to start reviewing your storm safety plan and discussing your plans for Tuesday if this system does decide to show up and affect Southern Ontario.

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Disclaimer: By using our services and any associated content, this means you implicitly agree to use the services and data available as is with no warranty issued or implied and should be used for informational purposes only. Any use of this data for decision making processes is done at the sole risk of the end user. Do not reproduce or disseminate our forecasts and content without explicit consent of Instant Weather, Inc.

Post-Easter Storm Could Bring Up to 20cm of Snow to Parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba

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As we get later into the month of April, there have already been tastes of warm weather across the Prairies, with temperatures climbing into the upper teens and low 20s across parts of all three provinces. Don’t let that fool you because it is still spring in the region and that means the continued possibility of heavy snowfall events. This will be the case beginning Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 5AM cT Tuesday

Steady light snow is expected to continue in West Central Saskatchewan overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Early Tuesday morning, a low pressure system will push northward from North Dakota, bringing precipitation to Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba. The two areas of snow will merge before sunrise, creating a wide band of continuous snowfall.

As the morning progresses, the system will stall and the light snow in Western Saskatchewan will taper off. On the other hand, the snowfall will intensify along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border. Further eastward, into the Central Plains and across to the Ontario border, above-freezing temperatures will result in the precipitation from this system falling as rain.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue) and Rain (Green) at 7pM cT Tuesday

Most of the snow will clear in Saskatchewan through Tuesday afternoon, leaving only the area of heavier snow on both sides of the Manitoba border by the evening. The snowfall will persist over this area overnight and it will gradually dissipate throughout the early morning hours.

In this area of constant snowfall, which includes Melville, Moosomin, and Yorkton in Saskatchewan, as well as Dauphin, Roblin, and Russell in Manitoba, residents can expect up to 20cm of snow accumulation by mid Wednesday morning. Depending on how much intensification we see Tuesday morning, it’s possible that up to 25cm could fall locally.

This much snow over a brief period will definitely make travel tricky throughout the day Tuesday so make sure to take extra caution when out on the roads.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Tuesday, April 8, 2025

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: Bussing for all weather corridors are cancelled today.

• Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Zone 4 Madawaska area transportation services only are cancelled.

French Schools

• Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: Bussing for all weather corridors are cancelled today.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Heavy Snow Likely to Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Tuesday

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/4/8/bus-cancellations

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As we move into April, the chances of school bus cancellations continue to shrink with each passing day, especially as we begin to leave winter weather behind. However, winter isn’t done with us just yet. A late-season blast of snow could bring another round of disruptions to parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, with snowfall totals potentially reaching up to 25 cm over the next 24 hours.

The greatest potential for school bus cancellations lies in the northern sections of Central and Eastern Ontario, where snowfall warnings are currently in effect from Environment Canada. Areas most at risk include the Near North region—covering East Parry Sound and North Bay—as well as North Hastings under Tri-Board, and Renfrew County.

In these regions, the chance of a snow day is estimated at over 75%. However, while conditions are certainly favourable, the expected snowfall amounts sit right at the borderline for cancellations, so there isn’t enough confidence to push the probability up to 90%.

In the Ottawa region, even though a snowfall warning is also in place, the area is predominantly urban and has a higher tolerance for winter conditions when it comes to school transportation decisions. Historically, it takes a significant snowfall event to warrant widespread cancellations. Because of this, the probability has been set at a lower 25%.

That said, some weather models are showing the potential for more than 20 cm of snow in the area, and if those more aggressive forecasts come to pass, Ottawa’s snow day risk could increase sharply overnight.

Moving further south and west, the likelihood of school bus cancellations drops noticeably. Snowfall totals in these areas are expected to be much lower and likely won't reach the levels needed to trigger cancellations.

An exception to this could be communities along the Lake Huron shoreline. In these areas, heavier lake-effect snow bands may develop overnight, especially when combined with strong wind gusts, creating blowing snow and reduced visibility. Because of this, we've assigned a slight 25% chance of cancellations in those zones.

Meanwhile, no significant impacts are expected across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) or Deep Southwestern Ontario. These regions are forecast to receive only a dusting of snow at most, with many areas likely to see little to no accumulation over the next 24 hours. As a result, we aren’t anticipating any school bus cancellations in these parts of the province.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

The Never-Ending Winter Continues for Southern Ontario; Snowy System Could Dump Up to 25cm by Tuesday

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Residents across Southern Ontario, especially in the snowbelt regions, have certainly had their fair share of winter weather this season. From intense snow squalls back in December to the crippling ice storm that hit parts of Central Ontario just last month, it's no wonder that many are ready to say goodbye to winter.

Unfortunately, it seems that Mother Nature didn’t get the memo. Spring-like weather remains out of sight for at least the next week. Instead, the region is facing below-seasonal temperatures, with many areas struggling to reach the freezing mark during the day. On top of that, a fast-moving weather disturbance is currently affecting Northeastern Ontario with heavy snow. This system is expected to push into Southern Ontario late Monday as a cold front makes its way through the region.

Snowfall will intensify overnight and continue into Tuesday morning. The heaviest bands are expected across northern portions of Central Ontario and through the Ottawa Valley. Snowfall totals in these areas could easily exceed 15 cm, with some locations possibly seeing as much as 25 cm.

Elsewhere in Southern Ontario, lake enhancement and lake effect snow behind the system could lead to locally higher amounts—anywhere from 5 to 15 cm is possible around Lake Huron and along the southern shores of Georgian Bay.

Strong wind gusts of up to 80 km/h are also expected Monday evening into the early overnight hours around Georgian Bay, Lake Huron, and parts of Central Ontario. These gusts may create blowing snow and significantly reduce visibility at times.

More concerning, though, is the impact these winds could have on restoration efforts in areas still reeling from last month’s devastating ice storm. With nearly 50,000 Hydro One customers still without power after 10 days, additional outages are possible as the already fragile infrastructure struggles under the pressure of these gusty conditions.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As of Monday evening, heavy snow continues to fall across the Sudbury and North Bay regions, both of which have seen a significant dumping of snow throughout the day. By the time conditions begin to improve later this evening, localized snowfall totals will likely surpass 20 cm.

Further south, a sharp cold front is pushing a line of heavy snow across Southern Ontario over the next few hours. Along with the sudden drop in temperatures, this front could bring a quick burst of intense snowfall, leading to brief whiteout conditions and rapid accumulation.

Temperatures are still hovering just above freezing ahead of the front, which should help limit how much of the snow sticks at first, as the wet snow may melt upon contact with the relatively warm ground.

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS- MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Another concern this evening will be the development of strong wind gusts near Lake Simcoe and extending into parts of the Golden Horseshoe. Wind speeds could reach 60 to 80 km/h in localized areas.

While those wind speeds wouldn’t normally cause widespread issues, the combination of gusty winds and heavy snow could lead to pockets of blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially on the roads.

This area is also still recovering from the recent ice storm, with ongoing power restoration efforts in regions like Simcoe County, Peterborough, and the Kawartha Lakes. The added strain from tonight’s strong winds could cause further damage to the already weakened power grid in those communities.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

After midnight, the focus of the heaviest snow will shift eastward into the Ottawa Valley. Persistent, moderate to heavy snow is expected across the region, especially in and around the City of Ottawa. One key area we’ll be closely monitoring is just west of Ottawa, where forecast models are showing the potential for a pocket of very heavy snowfall.

Communities including Algonquin Park, Barry’s Bay, Pembroke, and Petawawa could be directly impacted by this locally intense band of snow. If it shifts slightly east, it may sneak into Ottawa itself—something that could have a major effect on the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall rates in this band may exceed 5 cm per hour, leading to near-whiteout conditions.

Additionally, more localized lake-effect snow bands could develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Tuesday. Based on current guidance, one of these bands may impact parts of Huron and Perth counties, with a small chance of reaching the London area, though whether or not London sees any snow will depend on exactly where the band sets up. Some weaker snow activity is also expected near the southern shores of Georgian Bay, including places like Owen Sound, Meaford, and Collingwood.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By Tuesday morning, snowfall will begin to taper off from west to east across the region. The Ottawa Valley will continue to see steady snow past sunrise, although it should begin to lighten up by early afternoon.

Lingering lake effect snow flurries may continue near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, but are also expected to wind down by late morning as the system finally pulls away.

ESTIMATED WIND CHILL - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

In addition to the snow, Tuesday will bring a blast of bitterly cold Arctic air to much of Southern Ontario. This late-season cold snap will make it feel especially harsh for those heading out in the morning. Once the wind chill is factored in, it could feel like the -20s across parts of Central Ontario.

Make sure to dress warmly, especially if you've already switched to a spring wardrobe. It might be time to dig out that heavy winter coat once again.

The frigid temperatures also pose an added risk for anyone still without power following the ice storm. Be sure to check in on friends, family, and neighbours who may be vulnerable to the cold, and if needed, make use of warming centres set up in the hardest-hit communities.

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The highest snowfall totals from this system are expected in the northern sections of Central and Eastern Ontario, including places like Sudbury, North Bay, northern Muskoka, Algonquin Park, Pembroke, Renfrew, and Ottawa. These areas are likely to receive 15 to 25 cm of snow in total, including the accumulation that began earlier on Monday.

Elsewhere in Central Ontario and extreme Eastern Ontario, along with areas east of Lake Huron, snowfall totals are expected to fall in the 5 to 15 cm range. The wide range is due to uncertainty about how much snow will stick, as the heaviest snowfall is forecast while temperatures hover near or just above freezing. Affected areas include Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Grey-Bruce, Collingwood, Simcoe County, Muskoka, Bancroft, Brockville, and Cornwall.

For much of Southern Ontario, less than 5 cm is expected, with the Golden Horseshoe likely seeing no more than a dusting. In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and Sarnia, little to no accumulation is expected from this system.

⚠️ Flood Warnings Issued for Kitchener, Cambridge and More Ontario Communities on Thursday ☔️

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE image TO OPEN An interactive map

Heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt are triggering rising water levels across much of Southern Ontario, prompting multiple flood warnings and watches being issued since this past Friday. Conservation authorities and the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) have issued alerts for various watersheds, warning that saturated ground conditions and increased runoff may lead to localized flooding. Residents in affected areas should remain vigilant as rivers and streams swell, with the risk of minor to moderate flooding in low-lying regions.

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New Flood Warnings

The Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) is issuing a Flood Warning message for the City of Kitchener and the City of Cambridge. The Flood Warning message previously issued for West Montrose is being upgraded to Flood Warning Zone 2. The Flood Warning messages previously issued for Grand Valley, Waldemar, Drayton, the Village of Conestogo, New Hamburg, and Ayr remain in effect.

Weather forecast

Temperatures in the watershed have increased to double digits above freezing overnight and are expected to remain high for the remainder of the day. A mixed precipitation event, including snow, freezing rain, and rain, began yesterday and continued overnight throughout the watershed. This has resulted in approximately 40 to 80 mm of total precipitation and increased runoff throughout the watershed.

Flood Warning Message for the City of Kitchener

The Grand River is expected to overflow its banks midday Thursday, April 3, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying areas. Municipal flood coordinators in the City of Kitchener have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions.

Flood Warning Message for the City of Cambridge

The Grand River is expected to overflow its banks near Water Street/Highway 24 on midday Thursday, April 3. Municipal flood coordinators in the City of Cambridge have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions.

Flood Warning Message for West Montrose

River flows are expected to reach Flood Warning Zone 2 in West Montrose the afternoon of Thursday, April 3. Municipal flood coordinators in the Township of Woolwich have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions. Residents are encouraged to refer to the guide on the GRCA’s website for information regarding flood warning zones.

Flood Warning Message for Grand Valley and Waldemar

River flows are expected to exceed channel capacity and peak midday Thursday, April 3. Municipal flood coordinators in Grand Valley and Waldemar have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions.

Flood Warning Message for Drayton

River flows are expected to reach Flood Warning Zone 1 in Drayton on Thursday, April 3, during the morning. Municipal flood coordinators in the Township of Mapleton have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions. Residents are encouraged to refer to the guide on the GRCA’s website for information regarding flood warning zones.

Flood Warning Message for the Village of Conestogo

River flows are expected to reach flooding thresholds in the Village of Conestogo midday Thursday, April 3. Municipal flood coordinators in the Township of Woolwich have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions.

Flood Warning Message for New Hamburg

River flows are expected to reach Flood Warning Zone 2 in New Hamburg midday Thursday, April 3. Municipal flood coordinators in the Township of Wilmot have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions. Residents are encouraged to refer to the guide on the GRCA’s website for information regarding flood warning zones.

Flood Warning Message for Ayr

River flows are expected to reach Flood Warning Zone 2 in Ayr on the morning of Friday, April 4. Municipal flood coordinators in the Township of North Dumfries have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions. Residents are encouraged to refer to the guide on the GRCA’s website for information regarding flood warning zones.

This message will remain in effect until 12 p.m. on Saturday, April 5, 2025. 

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Flood Warnings

MNR Districts:

- Aurora, Midhurst, Owen Sound – *Flood Warning* (April 2, 2025, 12:30 PM)

- Minden, Parry Sound, Bracebridge – *Flood Warning* (March 28, 2025, 2:30 PM)

- Peterborough, Bancroft (Burnt and Black Rivers) – *Flood Warning* (March 28, 2025, 12:00 AM)

Conservation Authorities:

- Grand River – *Flood Warning* (April 3, 2025, 8:30 AM) NEW

- Nottawasaga Valley – *Flood Warning* (April 1, 2025, 1:30 PM)

- Otonabee Region – *Flood Warning* (April 2, 2025, 1:00 PM)

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Flood Watches

MNR Districts:

- Peterborough, Bancroft – *Flood Watch* (March 27, 2025, 10:00 AM)

Conservation Authorities:

- Ausable Bayfield – *Flood Watch* (April 1, 2025, 3:00 PM)

- Cataraqui Region – *Flood Watch* (April 1, 2025, 11:30 AM)

- Crowe Valley – *Flood Watch* (April 2, 2025, 2:00 PM)

- Essex Region – *Flood Watch* (April 1, 2025, 4:30 PM)

- Grey Sauble – *Flood Watch* (April 1, 2025, 11:00 AM)

- Hamilton Region – *Flood Watch* (March 31, 2025, 10:30 AM)

- Hamilton Region (High Great Lakes Level) – *Flood Watch* (April 1, 2025, 3:30 PM)

- Kawartha Region – *Flood Watch* (March 31, 2025, 12:00 AM)

- Kettle Creek – *Flood Watch* (April 2, 2025, 4:00 PM)

- Lower Trent – *Flood Watch* (April 2, 2025, 4:30 PM)

- Maitland Valley – *Flood Watch* (April 2, 2025, 10:30 AM)

- Mississippi Valley – *Flood Watch* (April 2, 2025, 4:00 PM)

- Niagara Peninsula – *Flood Watch* (April 2, 2025, 10:00 AM)

- Rideau Valley – *Flood Watch* (March 27, 2025, 4:15 PM)

- Saugeen Valley – *Flood Watch* (April 1, 2025, 12:00 AM)

- South Nation River – *Flood Watch* (March 28, 2025, 1:30 PM)

- St. Clair Region – *Flood Watch* (April 2, 2025, 11:00 PM)

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Watershed and Shoreline Conditions Statements

Water Safety Statements:

- Catfish Creek – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety* (April 2, 2025, 8:30 AM)

- Ganaraska Region – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety* (April 1, 2025, 3:30 PM)

- North Bay – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety* (March 28, 2025, 3:00 PM)

- Pembroke – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety* (March 28, 2025, 12:00 PM)

- North Bay-Mattawa – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety* (March 28, 2025, 2:30 PM)

- Raisin Region – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety* (March 24, 2025, 10:00 AM)

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Flood Outlook Statements

- Central Lake Ontario – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 12:00 AM)

- Credit Valley – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 11:30 AM)

- Halton Region – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 12:00 AM)

- Lake Simcoe Region – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 4:00 PM)

- Long Point Region – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 3:30 PM)

- Lower Thames Valley – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 2:00 PM)

- Quinte (Inland Lakes and Rivers) – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (March 27, 2025, 12:00 PM)

- Toronto and Region – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 1:30 PM)

- Upper Thames River – *Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook* (April 1, 2025, 2:30 PM)

- **Shoreline Conditions Statement – Storm Surge:**

- Catfish Creek – *Shoreline Conditions Statement – Storm Surge* (December 11, 2024, 12:00 AM)

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Flood Risks and Safety Tips

With continued snowmelt and upcoming rainfall, many rivers and streams remain at risk of rising beyond their banks, especially in central and eastern Ontario. The combination of warm temperatures and precipitation is accelerating runoff, leading to swollen waterways with reduced capacity to handle additional rainfall. Minor flooding in low-lying areas is expected, with localized road closures possible.

- Stay informed by monitoring local weather forecasts, special weather statements, and emergency alerts.

- Avoid low-lying areas prone to flooding and never attempt to drive through flooded roads.

- Secure outdoor belongings that could be carried away by rising waters.

- If you live in a flood-prone area, prepare an emergency kit with essentials in case of evacuation.

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Final Thoughts:

As flood warnings and watches continue across parts of Southern Ontario, it's important for residents in affected areas to stay alert and prepared. The combination of rapid snowmelt, saturated ground conditions, and forecasted rainfall means that water levels could rise quickly, increasing the risk of localized flooding. Keep an eye on weather updates, follow official advisories, and take precautions to protect your home and safety. If you live in a flood-prone area, now is the time to review your emergency plan. Stay safe, stay informed, and let’s hope for drier days ahead!

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Thursday, April 3, 2025

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St Andrew, St Peter, St Benedict and RF Hall are cancelled

• Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: There continues to be some transportation disruptions this morning following the ice storm. Please visit www.stsco.ca for Peterborough, Northumberland, and Clarington or www.mybustoschool.ca for details. The following schools remain closed:

  NORTHUMBERLAND/QUINTE WEST:

  Camborne Public School, Plainville Public School, & Roseneath Centennial Public School

  CITY AND COUNTY OF PETERBOROUGH:

  Buckhorn Public School, Crestwood Intermediate School and Crestwood Secondary School, Norwood District Public School, Norwood Intermediate School and Norwood District High School, & Warsaw Public School

  CITY OF KAWARTHA LAKES:

  St. Luke Catholic Elementary School

• Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: Busses are cancelled for the Redbridge/Thorne weather zone.

• PeeI Public: All transportation to RF Hall SS is cancelled today due to cancellations in Dufferin County.

• Rainbow Public & Sudbury Catholic: Morning busses are cancelled for Sudbury, Espanola, and Massey. Busses will run this afternoon.

• Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled for Muskoka. The following schools remain closed:

  SIMCOE COUNTY PUBLIC:

  Brechin PS, East Oro PS, Forest Hill PS, Goodfellow PS, Guthrie PS, Holly Meadows ES, Marchmont PS, Rama Central PS, Severn Shores PS, Shanty Bay PS, Uptergrove PS, WR Best Memorial PS & All City of Orillia Schools.

  SIMCOE MUSOKA CATHOLIC:

  All schools in Muskoka and Orillia.

• Trillium Lakelands: Transportation is not running in Zones 4 and 5 due to the ice storm. The following schools remain closed:

  ZONE 1:

  Glen Orchard Public School & Honey Harbour Public School,

  ZONE 3:

  Cardiff Elementary School

  ZONE 4:

  Bobcaygeon Public School, Fenelon Township Public School, Lady Mackenzie Public School, Ridgewood Public School & Woodville Elementary School

  ZONE 5:

  Dr. George Hall Public School, Jack Callaghan Public School, & Mariposa Elementary School

• Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: Busses are cancelled for North Wellington (Division 3) and Dufferin County & Robert F. Hall (Division 4).

French Schools

• Conseil des écoles publiques de l’Est de l’Ontario (CEPEO): Busses are cancelled for Renfrew County

• Conseil catholique MonAvenir: École élémentaire catholique Samuel-de-Champlain remains closed.

• Conseil scolaire public du Grand Nord de l’Ontario (CSPGNO): Morning busses are cancelled for Sudbury, Espanola, and Massey. Busses will run this afternoon.

• Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: Busses are cancelled for the Redbridge/Thorne weather zone.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Parts of Southern Ontario May See School Bus Cancellations on Thursday Due to Lingering Freezing Rain Impacts

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/4/3/bus-cancellations

NOTE: SOME SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THE EARLIER ICE STORM. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL BOARD FOR A DETAILED LIST OF SCHOOL CLOSURES

A messy weather system is currently sweeping across Southern Ontario, bringing a mix of freezing rain, ice pellets, and heavy snow. As temperatures begin to rise later this evening and into Thursday morning, much of the precipitation is expected to transition to plain rain, gradually improving road conditions across the region.

Although freezing rain is not expected to persist into the Thursday morning commute, some roads—especially in rural parts of Central and Eastern Ontario—could still be icy. This lingering risk means there’s still a chance that school bus transportation could be impacted in a few regions, depending on how quickly conditions improve overnight.

It’s important to note that localized school closures remain in effect across some of the hardest-hit communities in Central Ontario. These closures are mainly due to ongoing power outages caused by the earlier ice storm. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, please check directly with your local school board, as the situation continues to evolve.

One area has already confirmed a cancellation for Thursday: Trillium Lakelands District School Board has announced that school transportation will be cancelled in both City of Kawartha Lakes zones. Ongoing recovery efforts and the continued lack of hydro have made transportation logistics extremely difficult. Communication towers remain down in the area, meaning bus drivers are unable to safely coordinate with bus companies, leading to the decision to cancel.

Looking further north, the highest probability of school bus cancellations lies in the Sudbury, North Bay, and Parry Sound regions. In these areas, freezing rain is expected to continue later into the night, only switching over to rain closer to the morning hours. As a result, road conditions are likely to remain icy by morning. The school boards covering these areas are known for being cautious, particularly when it comes to winter weather impacts on rural roads.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, the chances of school bus cancellations are more mixed, ranging between 25% and 50%, depending on the specific region and timing of the transition to rain. Boards that cover more rural or higher elevation areas will be more likely to see issues, while those in the southern sections of the region—where the switchover to rain will happen earlier in the evening—will have a longer window for melting and road improvement overnight.

At this point, the outcome could easily go either way. That’s why confidence remains low when it comes to predicting widespread cancellations despite the messy setup. While conditions are expected to improve quickly overnight, uncertainty lingers, especially for rural zones where icy backroads often remain a hazard well after the main part of the storm has passed.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Mid-Week Freezing Rain Risk Threatens Southern Ontario After Last Weekend’s Devastating Ice Storm

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

With recovery efforts well underway across Central Ontario following the devastating ice storm last weekend—which left hundreds of thousands without power—a new weather threat is now on the horizon, potentially hindering progress.

A dynamic and complex system is expected to move into Southern Ontario starting Wednesday morning and continuing into Thursday, bringing with it a mix of impactful weather, including heavy snow, freezing rain, and even the risk of severe thunderstorms.

Unlike the recent ice storm, which brought over 30 hours of relentless freezing rain, this upcoming round will be more typical in nature. Most regions affected can expect four to eight hours of freezing rain, followed by a gradual transition to regular rain as temperatures rise.

While the severity won't match the last event, this system is still expected to bring 5 to 10mm of ice accretion in some of the hardest-hit zones, especially across higher elevations northwest of the Greater Toronto Area, including parts of the Dundalk Highlands and the Kitchener-Waterloo region.

That amount of ice is enough to snap tree branches and potentially cause power outages, especially with infrastructure already weakened. Thankfully, we don’t expect widespread or prolonged outages this time, and restoration efforts should be more manageable. However, with hydro crews still stretched thin from the last storm, even minor outages could take longer than usual to resolve.

Further north, across Central and Eastern Ontario, freezing rain is also expected—though it will be mixed at times with ice pellets and snow. These regions should see a faster changeover to rain, which will help limit overall ice build-up. Still, light icing and slick roads are possible through the afternoon and evening hours, particularly on untreated surfaces.

Adding to the concern are strong wind gusts, which are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and could return overnight. Gusts may reach 70 to 90 km/h, especially in exposed areas of Central Ontario and regions east of Lake Huron. With already-compromised infrastructure, even moderate gusts could bring additional tree and power line damage.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Precipitation will begin spreading into Southwestern Ontario late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. For areas in Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Chatham, and Sarnia, the precipitation will fall as rain from the start, limiting any freezing rain risk.

However, higher elevation zones—particularly those east of Lake Huron and extending through Kitchener, Guelph, and Orangeville—will be dealing with below-freezing surface temperatures trapped under a layer of warm air aloft. This setup is classic for freezing rain, as the rain freezes on contact with cold ground surfaces.

The Greater Toronto Area could see some brief periods of freezing rain as well, particularly in areas away from the immediate lakeshore where it tends to stay cooler. However, any icing here is expected to be minor and short-lived, quickly melting as temperatures rise above freezing.

By mid-afternoon, Central Ontario, especially areas surrounding Lake Simcoe, will likely start off with a wintry mix of wet snow and ice pellets as the first bands of precipitation arrive. These areas could then transition to a few hours of freezing rain before warming into plain rain overnight.

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS- MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As the afternoon progresses, wind gusts will begin to increase, particularly in regions east of Lake Huron and into parts of Central Ontario. While model guidance varies, most are pointing to a window of potentially damaging gusts between 70 to 90 km/h.

The NAM model continues to show gusts near 100 km/h, though this may be on the higher end of the spectrum. Overnight, another round of strong gusts is possible as a line of thunderstorms develops. If these storms materialize, localized wind gusts could reach similar or even stronger levels. The severe weather threat should remain confined to Deep Southwestern Ontario.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As we head into Wednesday evening, freezing rain will come to an end for much of the GTA as temperatures rise above the freezing mark. However, it is expected to persist longer across areas to the northwest, where colder air hangs on longer. This is where the most prolonged and severe icing is likely.

The freezing rain will also spread into parts of Central Ontario and the Bruce Peninsula, both of which were hit hard by the weekend storm and remain vulnerable to additional impacts.

Eastern Ontario will begin to see precipitation late in the day, starting with a burst of heavy snow, followed by a changeover to ice pellets and then freezing rain. How quickly this transition happens will determine how much snow is able to accumulate.

Some model scenarios suggest snowfall totals of 5 to 10 cm are possible, particularly in regions along the Quebec border including Ottawa.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By around midnight, temperatures will begin to climb across regions southwest of Lake Simcoe, triggering a changeover to rain. Overnight, heavy rainfall will continue to spread across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe. This rain may come down heavily at times, especially in areas that see embedded thunderstorms.

There is also a risk of severe thunderstorms through the evening and overnight hours in Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and Sarnia. These storms could produce wind gusts up to 100 km/h, and while the overall tornado risk is low, it can’t be ruled out. A more detailed thunderstorm forecast will be issued on Wednesday if conditions continue to trend toward severe potential.

The freezing rain will gradually lift northward into the Sudbury–North Bay–Ottawa corridor overnight. While these areas may deal with a few hours of freezing rain early on, a transition to rain is expected before daybreak on Thursday.

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

The worst freezing rain impacts are expected across higher elevations of Southwestern Ontario and areas northwest of the GTA, where the freezing rain will last longest.

Some of these zones could see 5 to 10mm of ice accretion, and locally higher amounts over 10mm aren’t out of the question depending on exact temperatures and dynamics.

This kind of ice build-up can cause significant surface glazing and may lead to tree and power line damage. Areas most at risk include Listowel, Kitchener, Fergus, Guelph, Orangeville, Shelburne, and parts of York Region.

Northern parts of the GTA could see 2 to 5mm of ice, while areas closer to the lake should remain below 2mm, with ice melting quickly once temperatures rise.

Across Central Ontario and into the Ottawa region, a general 2 to 5mm of icing is expected, though this could trend higher if ice pellets are less dominant or the switch to rain is delayed.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Beyond the freezing rain, this system is also expected to deliver significant rainfall totals. Much of Southern Ontario could see 30 to 50mm of rain, with localized amounts up to 75mm possible in areas affected by thunderstorms.

With local waterways already running high due to spring runoff, this amount of rain could lead to flooding in low-lying areas, particularly where ice and debris continue to block drainage routes. This is of particular concern for communities still without power from the ice storm, as their ability to respond to flooding may be limited.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Another Freezing Rain Risk Threatens School Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario on Wednesday

NOTE: SOME SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THE EARLIER ICE STORM - ONLY SCHOOL BOARDS THAT HAVE REGION-WIDE CLOSURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED ON THIS MAP. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL BOARD FOR A DETAILED LIST OF SCHOOL CLOSURES

While Central Ontario continues to recover from the devastating ice storm that struck over the weekend, yet another round of freezing rain is expected to impact Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday. In the wake of the storm, widespread damage and ongoing power outages have forced several school boards to extend closures, with more potential disruptions likely as another system moves in.

The Trillium Lakelands District School Board (TLDSB) has confirmed that all schools will remain closed for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, April 2, 2025, due to extensive power outages still affecting the region. This closure comes as crews continue efforts to restore electricity and ensure school facilities are safe to reopen.

The Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board has also announced multiple school closures for both Wednesday and Thursday. In the District of Muskoka, Monsignor Michael O’Leary, St. Dominic, and Saint Mary will remain closed. In Orillia, the following schools are affected: St. Bernards, Monsignor Lee, Notre Dame, Patrick Fogarty, and Foley.

Meanwhile, the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (KPR) is planning to reopen schools on Wednesday, but some locations will remain closed due to localized outages. A complete list of affected schools is available on the board’s website: KPR School Closure Update.

Similarly, the Simcoe County District School Board (SCDSB) has announced that some schools will stay closed on Wednesday. Additionally, schools in Orillia will remain closed on Thursday as recovery continues. A full list of school closures can be found here: SCDSB Alert.

On top of these closures, there's growing concern over potential school bus cancellations across parts of Southern Ontario as Environment Canada has issued widespread freezing rain warnings in advance of this next wave. Rural school boards northwest of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)—including Bluewater, Upper Grand, and Simcoe County—are facing the highest risk of bus disruptions. Freezing rain is expected to begin in the late morning and could significantly impact afternoon bus runs.

These regions currently face an estimated 75% chance of an “ice day” on Wednesday. However, the timing of the storm means school boards will need to make proactive decisions, as the worst conditions may arrive after morning transportation has already taken place.

In Eastern Ontario, freezing rain is also in the forecast, though it’s expected to begin later in the day. With the storm arriving after the afternoon commute, most buses will likely run as scheduled on Wednesday. That said, the risk of cancellations rises for Thursday morning as freezing rain is expected to continue overnight and could make for slick travel conditions at the start of the day.

For those in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, freezing rain is expected to be minimal. With temperatures hovering above freezing, most of this region will avoid major impacts, and school buses are expected to operate as usual.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

⛈️Severe Thunderstorm Risk, More Freezing Rain, Heavy Rain, Snow, and Strong Wind Gusts on Wednesday in Ontario

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Spring storms are here, and this one is bringing a bit of everything. It will begin Wednesday morning delivering heavy rain, freezing rain, strong wind gusts, severe thunderstorms and snow depending on your location. Southwestern Ontario will see significant rainfall and a severe thunderstorm risk, while parts of central, eastern, the golden horseshoe and northeastern Ontario could face a messy mix of freezing rain, ice pellets, rain, snow and strong wind gusts, again, depending on your location. For those still recovering from last weekend’s ice storm, this storm could certainly add to the challenges. There’s also a risk for substantial snowfall in northwestern Ontario, specially in the Thunder Bay region. Further details on each area below.

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⛈️Severe Thunderstorm Risk

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💨🌪️ Hazard(s): Wind, Tornado, Thunderstorms
📍 Location: Extreme southwestern Ontario
⏳ Timing: Late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
⚠️ Impact(s): Loose objects may be tossed, possible power outages

🔎 Confidence: Low
💥 Impact: High

A line of severe thunderstorms could cross into the province from Michigan, possibly producing wind gusts up to 100 km/h. A brief tornado is also possible on this line. There is lots of uncertainty in this occurring as ingredients to form these thunderstorms are located well south of the border and will rely on the thunderstorms being able to develop there and reach southwestern Ontario before weakening. Refer to the Wednesday Significant Weather discussion for rainfall information.

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🌧️ Heavy Rain, 🧊 Ice, 💨 Strong Wind Gusts, and ❄️ Snow

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📍 Location: Southwestern Ontario

🌧️ Hazard(s): Rain
📍 Location: Southwestern Ontario
⏳ Timing: Wednesday morning into Thursday morning
⚠️ Impact(s): Possible flooding in low-lying areas

🔎 Confidence: Moderate
💥 Impact: High

Rain is expected and may be accompanied by thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts up to 60 mm are possible by late Wednesday evening, with additional amounts expected on Thursday. Totals will vary, with areas east of Lake Huron receiving up to 60 mm, while regions near Lake Erie will likely see 10 to 20 mm.

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📍 Location: Grey and Bruce Counties east to Peterborough

🧊🌧️ Hazard(s): Ice, Rain
📍 Location: Grey and Bruce Counties east to Peterborough
⏳ Timing: Wednesday midday into Thursday morning
⚠️ Impact(s): Possible flooding in low-lying areas, broken tree branches from ice build-up

🔎 Confidence: High
💥 Impact: High

Freezing rain, possibly mixed with ice pellets, is expected to bring 4 to 8 mm of ice accretion on some surfaces, particularly over higher terrain. Rain will follow and may be accompanied by thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts up to 40 mm are possible by late Wednesday evening, with more rain on Thursday.

⚠️ Impacts in this area may be enhanced due to recovery efforts from last weekend’s ice storm.

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📍 Location: East of Lake Huron to portions of the Greater Golden Horseshoe

🌧️🧊 Hazard(s): Rain, Ice
📍 Location: East of Lake Huron to portions of the Greater Golden Horseshoe
⏳ Timing: Wednesday midday into Thursday morning
⚠️ Impact(s): Possible flooding in low-lying areas, possible icy surfaces on roads and walkways.

🔎 Confidence: Moderate
💥 Impact: High

A brief period of freezing rain is expected Wednesday afternoon, bringing 1 to 2 mm of ice accretion on some surfaces, particularly over higher terrain. Rain will follow and may be accompanied by thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts up to 50 mm are possible by late Wednesday evening, with more rain on Thursday.

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📍 Location: Parts of Central, Eastern and Northeastern Ontario

❄️🧊 Hazard(s): Snow, Ice
📍 Location: East of Lake Huron to portions of the Greater Golden Horseshoe
⏳ Timing: Wednesday midday into Thursday morning
⚠️ Impact(s): Broken tree branches from ice build-up, possible difficult travel conditions

🔎 Confidence: Moderate
💥 Impact: High

A messy mix of winter precipitation is expected. Snow mixed with ice pellets will develop near midday Wednesday, with up to 5 cm possible before transitioning to freezing rain. A period of freezing rain Wednesday evening could bring 3 to 6 mm of ice accretion, especially over higher terrain.

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📍 Location: North shore of Lake Ontario

🧊🌧️ Hazard(s): Ice, Rain
📍 Location: North shore of Lake Ontario
⏳ Timing: Wednesday midday into Thursday
⚠️ Impact(s): Possible icy surfaces on roads and walkways, possible flash flooding and water pooling on roads

🔎 Confidence: Moderate
💥 Impact: Low

A brief period of ice pellets or freezing rain is possible Wednesday afternoon. Rain will follow and may be accompanied by thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts up to 20 mm are possible by late Wednesday evening, with additional amounts expected on Thursday.

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📍 Location: Southern portions of Northeastern Ontario and portions of Eastern Ontario

❄️🧊 Hazard(s): Snow, Ice
📍 Location: Southern portions of northeastern Ontario and portions of eastern Ontario
⏳ Timing: Beginning midday Wednesday
⚠️ Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions

🔎 Confidence:
💥 Impact:

A messy mix of winter precipitation is expected. Snow mixed with ice pellets will develop Wednesday afternoon, with up to 5 cm possible before transitioning to a brief period of freezing rain.

⚠️ Confidence in ice accretion amounts is low. However, accretion is expected to remain fairly low as the freezing rain transitions to rain Wednesday night.

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📍 Location: West of Lake Superior

❄️🌬️ Hazard(s): Snow, Blowing Snow
📍 Location: West of Lake Superior
⏳ Timing: Wednesday morning into Thursday morning
⚠️ Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures

🔎 Confidence:
💥 Impact:

Snowfall amounts up to 25 cm are possible, with locally higher totals over elevated terrain. Gusty winds could lead to local blowing snow, especially near Lake Superior. Additional snowfall is expected Thursday.

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📍 Location: Northwestern Ontario and north of Lake Superior

❄️ Hazard(s): Snow
📍 Location: Northwestern Ontario and north of Lake Superior
⏳ Timing: Wednesday morning into Thursday morning
⚠️ Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions

🔎 Confidence:
💥 Impact:

Snowfall amounts up to 15 cm are possible, with additional snowfall expected Thursday.

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Final Thoughts:

This is shaping up to be a potentially strong system with widespread rain, ice, and snow affecting much of Ontario. Flooding, icy roads, tree damage, and power outages are all possible. For areas still recovering from last weekend’s ice storm, even small amounts of ice could exacerbate existing damage. The severe thunderstorm risk in deep southwestern Ontario is of particular concern as well.

As always, keep an eye our latest updates and prepare for rapidly changing conditions. Stay safe out there, folks!

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Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them to help inform our communities.

Ice Storm Aftermath to Keep Many Schools Closed in Central Ontario for a Second Day on Tuesday

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As Central Ontario recovers from the weekend’s devastating ice storm, some school boards in the hardest-hit regions have decided to keep schools closed for a second day on Tuesday due to ongoing power outages and hazardous conditions.

As of 7 PM, the following English public and catholic school boards have announced closures:

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board – All schools closed.

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board – Schools closed in Peterborough County, Peterborough City, Northumberland County, and Quinte West.

• Peterborough, Victoria, Northumberland and Clarington Catholic School Board – All schools in Peterborough, Peterborough County, and the City of Kawartha Lakes will remain closed. Schools in Northumberland will be open, except for St. Mary Catholic Elementary School in Campbellford, which is closed due to a power outage. Transportation to Northumberland schools will be cancelled. All schools in Clarington will be open, with transportation operating as usual.

• Durham District School Board - The following schools will be closed and no transportation will be provided: Beaver River PS, McCaskills Mills PS, Brock HS, Goodwood PS, Scott Central PS, SA Cawker PS

• Simcoe County District School Board - Schools in the central and north zones will remain closed to students. Clearview Meadows ES and Stayner Collegiate Institute will also remain closed.

• Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board - Schools are closed in the North Zone (Elmvale, Midland, Penetanguishene & Orillia), Central Zone (Barrie, Innisfil & Angus), along with St. Dominic, Monsignor Michael O'Leary and Saint Mary's in Huntsville and St. Noel Chabanel in Wasaga Beach.

This article will be updated should any additional school closures be announced.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Schools Across Parts of Central Ontario Will Be Closed on Monday Due to Major Ice Storm Damage

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A major ice storm has left much of Central Ontario paralyzed, with widespread power outages and extensive damage. While the freezing rain threat has ended for the hardest-hit regions, the impact is far from over. Many communities remain without power, and recovery efforts are only just beginning. With power restoration expected to take days in some areas, school closures on Monday are inevitable.

As of 6:30 PM on Sunday, multiple school boards have already announced they will be closed on Monday due to the ongoing impacts of the storm. This includes Simcoe County District School Board, Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board. These regions, among the hardest hit, are highlighted in dark purple on the map.

We are also highly confident that additional school closures will be announced in other severely impacted areas, including Tri-Board, North Durham, and Near North. Given the sheer number of power outages, downed trees, and icy roads, it’s difficult to imagine how schools in these regions could safely operate.

Dufferin and Meaford were also hit hard by the storm, and while some cancellations or closures are possible, the impacts there were not as widespread. As a result, the school board may opt to close select schools rather than issuing a full regional closure.

Meanwhile, in the Ottawa Valley, the impacts of this storm have been less severe. However, freezing rain is ongoing this evening and will continue into the overnight hours before transitioning to rain. Road conditions could still be hazardous, especially on rural routes. Because of this, there is a strong chance of school bus cancellations for the Renfrew and Upper Canada school boards.

As for the City of Ottawa, it’s a 50/50 call at this point. The urban school board generally has a higher tolerance for winter conditions since most students do not rely on rural bus routes. That said, with lingering ice and freezing rain, cancellations remain a possibility.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Dangerous Ice Storm Likely This Weekend With Widespread Power Outages Across Parts of Southern Ontario

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Concern is rapidly growing for what is shaping up to be a potentially devastating ice storm this weekend across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. Prolonged freezing rain, beginning Friday evening, is expected to persist throughout much of the weekend, leading to substantial ice accretion on exposed surfaces.

This storm has the potential to reach ice accumulation levels not seen in years—or even over a decade. With up to 40mm of ice accretion possible, widespread power outages are likely in the hardest-hit regions, including Muskoka, Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, and Kingston.

Some of these power outages could last for days or even weeks, especially in more rural areas with dense tree coverage. Trees weighed down by ice are likely to fall, taking power lines with them. Travel conditions will also be significantly impacted, as ice-covered roads become extremely dangerous.

For Northern Ontario, the storm will start as a classic winter system, bringing heavy snowfall to Northeastern Ontario throughout Saturday. A second round of precipitation on Sunday could introduce freezing rain and ice pellets further south, affecting areas like Elliot Lake, Sudbury, and North Bay. Snowfall totals in Northeastern Ontario are expected to range from 20 to 30cm, making travel difficult.

Even the Ottawa Valley will see significant snowfall, with up to 20cm possible, along with a mix of ice pellets. By Sunday, freezing rain could become a concern for the region as temperatures rise and the precipitation type shifts.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As of Friday afternoon, rain is already moving into Southwestern Ontario. By the evening, precipitation will spread north and east into Central and Eastern Ontario.

Based on the latest data, a band of heavy snow is expected to develop along a corridor stretching from Sudbury through North Bay and into the Ottawa region. To the south, an area of freezing rain will form over the Bruce Peninsula and extend into regions around Lake Simcoe.

ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

How far south the freezing rain spreads remains uncertain. Model guidance suggests surface temperatures will hover near the freezing mark across Barrie and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

Even a fraction of a degree difference could significantly alter how much freezing rain accumulates. If the air remains colder than expected, freezing rain could be more widespread. However, a slightly warmer scenario would push the freezing rain line further north.

Confidence is highest for freezing rain in northern sections of Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, and Muskoka. These areas are most likely to remain below freezing for an extended period, allowing heavy ice accretion to build up.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The most intense icing is expected overnight into early Saturday morning. The worst conditions will stretch from Muskoka through Peterborough and into Kingston.

Once again, temperature will be the deciding factor. Some areas, such as Barrie and Newmarket, sit right on the edge between freezing rain and regular rain. If cold air lingers longer than anticipated, freezing rain could extend as far south as the northern GTA, as well as higher elevations like the Dundalk Highlands.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Through Saturday morning and afternoon, light to moderate freezing rain or drizzle is expected to persist across portions of Central Ontario, particularly around Lake Simcoe. However, the intensity will decrease compared to the earlier hours.

Further south, rain will continue across Southwestern Ontario and the GTA. This is when we expect the warmest temperatures of the storm. Some areas in Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, could surge into the 20s, while Central Ontario remains near or below freezing.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By Saturday evening, another round of heavy precipitation is expected to push into Central Ontario. At the same time, temperatures will steadily drop. Regions that saw rain in the afternoon—including parts of the GTA and Barrie—may transition back to freezing rain.

ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Model data suggests that by late Saturday night into Sunday morning, the freezing rain line could shift southwest of the GTA. This could result in several hours of freezing rain across Kitchener, Waterloo, and parts of the Toronto area.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia, and London, is expected to remain unaffected, staying well above freezing.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Sunday morning will bring a gradual transition from freezing rain to regular rain across the GTA as temperatures climb above freezing. However, elevated areas northwest of the city, such as Guelph, Orangeville, and Shelburne, could see freezing rain linger for a few extra hours.

For Central Ontario, the freezing rain will continue into early Sunday afternoon as the main area of precipitation slowly shifts north.

By Sunday afternoon, the Ottawa Valley may begin transitioning from snow to ice pellets and then to freezing rain as temperatures rise.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Most of Southern Ontario will warm above the freezing mark by late Sunday, finally pushing the freezing rain threat northward.

However, by Sunday night into Monday morning, the risk of freezing rain will shift to Northeastern Ontario, including Sudbury and North Bay.

Meanwhile, heavy snow and ice pellets will impact more northern regions, such as Wawa and Timmins.

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Predicting exact ice accretion remains challenging, as many factors influence how much ice actually builds up. The amount of freezing rain you experience may vary significantly from nearby areas due to microclimate effects, surface conditions, and temperature fluctuations.

Some high-resolution model runs suggest an extreme scenario with localized pockets of over 50mm—possibly even 75mm—of freezing rain. However, because much of this precipitation will fall in a relatively short timeframe, not all of it will necessarily adhere to surfaces.

Given this, we are forecasting general ice accretion between 25 and 40mm in the hardest-hit areas. This includes the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula, Muskoka, Orillia, Barrie, Orangeville, Collingwood, Lindsay, Peterborough, Belleville, and Kingston.

If temperatures are slightly colder than expected, some locations could exceed 40mm of ice accretion, particularly where conditions allow for more efficient accumulation.

To put this into perspective, we can use the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index (SPIA Index). With forecasted ice accumulations of 25-40mm (1-1.4”), this storm falls into a Category 4 ice event—even before factoring in wind.

While we are not expecting extreme winds, gusts of 40-50km/h (25-30 mph) in some areas could push this storm into Category 5 territory. According to the SPIA Index, a Category 5 ice storm results in:

Catastrophic damage to entire exposed utility systems, including both distribution and transmission networks. Outages could last several weeks in some areas. Shelters needed.

For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), ice accretion amounts will vary significantly. The biggest factor will be how long cold air remains trapped at the surface.

We currently expect between 10-15mm of ice for northern parts of the GTA, including York, Durham, and Peel regions. Kitchener and Waterloo will likely see between 5-10mm.

Closer to the Lake Ontario shoreline—including downtown Toronto—freezing rain amounts should be lower, around 2-5mm. However, if temperatures are colder than expected, ice accretion in the GTA could be higher, so it’s still best to prepare.

To the north, ice accretion amounts will drop off as freezing rain transitions to ice pellets and snow closer to the Ottawa Valley.

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In terms of snowfall, widespread totals between 20-30cm are expected across much of Northeastern Ontario through Monday. This includes Sudbury, North Bay, Chapleau, Timmins, and Kirkland Lake. Even Thunder Bay could see 10-20cm of snow, mainly earlier in the weekend.

Along the Quebec border, snowfall amounts will range from 10-20cm in areas like the Ottawa Valley and Cornwall. Further southwest, freezing rain and ice pellets will be the dominant concern, leading to lower snowfall totals.

This storm remains highly dynamic, with small temperature fluctuations potentially making a massive difference in what type of precipitation falls. We will continue to monitor the latest data and provide updates as the situation evolves. Stay safe and stay prepared.