March 14, 2026

Environment Canada Forecasting Major Storm in Ontario With Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain, Rain, and Damaging Winds From Sunday Through Tuesday

March 14, 2026/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is forecasting a major winter storm that is expected to sweep across Ontario from Sunday through Tuesday, bringing a wide range of impacts across the province. Depending on where you’re located, this storm may bring heavy snow, blowing snow, freezing rain, heavy rain, strong winds, and snow squalls.

The most significant concerns appear to be in northeastern Ontario, where very heavy snowfall is expected, as well as parts of southern Ontario where strong winds, freezing rain, and changing precipitation types may lead to hazardous travel and possible power outages. Snowbelt regions east and southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could see intense snow squalls and continued strong winds into Tuesday.

Sunday: Snow Spreads In, With Ice and Wind Developing Later

NOTE: CLICK OR TAP THE IMAGE TO OPEN IT SO YOU CAN ZOOM IN

In northeastern Ontario, Sunday morning is looking rough and this will continue through the afternoon. Areas near Lake Superior could see 20-45 cm of snow with wind gusts up to 70 km/h according to Environment Canada, leading to significantly reduced visibility and dangerous travel. Some roads may become very difficult or even impossible to travel on as conditions deteriorate.

For the eastern side of northeastern Ontario, snow is expected to begin Sunday afternoon and intensify into the evening. Some areas may see 10-20 cm of snow before transitioning to a mix of ice pellets or freezing rain Sunday evening, while farther east, snowfall totals of 10-15 cm are possible by the end of the day.

Across southern Ontario, including parts of southwestern and central Ontario and the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Sunday is expected to bring a quick burst of heavy snow beginning in the morning. Up to 5 cm may fall in the GTA, while areas north of Lake Simcoe could see 5-10 cm where snow lingers longer into the afternoon.

As temperatures rise, some areas may briefly change to freezing rain before precipitation tapers off. At the same time, southerly winds may strengthen, with gusts up to 70 km/h developing Sunday afternoon, especially near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Travel conditions may quickly shift from snow-covered roads to slushy and icy surfaces.

Monday: Peak of the Storm Brings the Most Widespread Impacts

Monday is shaping up to be the most impactful day of the storm, with multiple hazards affecting different parts of Ontario.

In northeastern and far northeastern Ontario, along with eastern sections of the North Shore of Lake Superior, the storm is expected to continue producing heavy snow, blowing snow, and very poor visibility. Additional snowfall of up to 40 cm is possible Monday alone, with wind gusts up to 70 km/h and up to 80 km/h near Lake Superior. Combined snowfall totals from Sunday through Monday could reach 40-85 cm in some areas.

This could lead to dangerous travel, possible road closures, broken tree branches, and an increased risk of roof collapse where the heaviest snow falls.

A separate corridor from Sault Ste. Marie to Kirkland Lake, including Sudbury, is expected to deal with a messy mix of snow, freezing rain, ice pellets, and wind. Snow is expected to change to freezing rain or ice pellets Sunday night into Monday morning, with 4-8 mm of ice build-up possible. During Monday afternoon, precipitation is expected to change back to snow. Additional snowfall of 5-10 cm is possible west of Elliot Lake, with 2-5 cm farther east.

This combination of ice and wind may lead to localized tree damage and power outages.

From Manitoulin Island to Mattawa, including North Bay, the storm is expected to transition from freezing rain or ice pellets to heavy rain late Sunday night into Monday morning. Rainfall totals of 30-50 mm are possible, along with the risk of a few isolated thunderstorms.

This may lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas and near rivers, creeks, and culverts.

In southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, Monday increasingly looks like a high-impact wind event. South or southwest winds gusting up to 70 km/h are expected through the day, but as a cold front moves through, brief gusts up to 100 km/h may be possible.

The front is expected to move through southwestern Ontario by mid to late Monday morning, then through the Greater Golden Horseshoe around midday to early afternoon. Behind the front, winds are expected to remain strong, with gusts up to 70 km/h continuing and up to 90 km/h possible near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Loose outdoor items may be tossed around, tree branches could break, and scattered power outages are possible.

Tuesday: Snow Squalls and Strong Winds Continue

By Tuesday, the main storm system will begin to pull away, but conditions will remain hazardous in some areas as strong winds and lake effect snow squalls develop behind it.

The greatest concern will be east and southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, where snow squalls are expected to set up Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Wind gusts of 70-90 km/h may persist into Tuesday morning, and near-zero visibility is likely at times in snow and blowing snow. Local snowfall totals of 10-25 cm are possible before conditions gradually improve late Tuesday afternoon or early evening.

Portions of southwestern Ontario and the western Greater Golden Horseshoe may also see snow squalls on Tuesday, although totals there are expected to be somewhat lower, generally around 5-10 cm. Winds may still gust to 60-80 km/h, creating difficult travel and sharply reduced visibility at times.

Even outside of the strongest snow squalls, strong winds will remain an issue across parts of southern and eastern Ontario, with gusts up to 70 km/h possible before easing Tuesday evening.

Bottom Line

This is shaping up to be a high-impact storm for Ontario, with several different hazards depending on your location.

Northeastern Ontario faces the greatest risk for very heavy snow and blowing snow. Parts of central and northern Ontario may have to contend with freezing rain and heavy rain. Southern Ontario is at risk for strong to damaging winds, and snowbelt regions could see hazardous snow squalls into Tuesday.

Anyone with non-essential travel plans should reschedule if the conditions are bad for your area and if you have critical travel plans, you need to be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and the potential for significant disruptions. Power outages, dangerous highway conditions, and localized flooding will all be on the table as this storm moves through, depending on where you’re located. Download our free app InstantWeather to know when and where the conditions are going to get dangerous. Be safe, folks!

March 13, 2026

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Friday, March 13, 2026

March 13, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are multiple closures/cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: All school vehicles in Simcoe County are cancelled today.

French Schools

Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Busses are cancelled in Simcoe
Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Huron Perth and Bruce-Grey
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Huron Perth and Bruce-Grey

March 12, 2026

Winter Makes a Comeback Friday with Up to 15cm of Snow Possible Across Southern Ontario

March 12, 2026/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

While we started off the week with a taste of spring-like weather across Southern Ontario, with widespread double-digit temperatures and even readings soaring near 20°C in some areas, the end of the week will bring us back to reality. And that reality is that winter is far from finished!

An Alberta Clipper is set to slide across the region starting Friday morning and persist throughout much of the day. This system is expected to bring a few hours of heavier snowfall with hourly rates approaching 2 to 3cm through parts of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

That rapid accumulation is expected to occur during the late morning and early afternoon hours, which unfortunately lines up with a very busy time of day. This will set up messy conditions just in time for the afternoon commute, especially on untreated roads and highways.

Drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions with snow quickly covering roads in areas that experience the heavier bursts.

This heavy snow will also be accompanied by strengthening winds with gusts approaching 50 to 70 km/h across many areas. Even stronger gusts are expected around Lake Huron, where some locations could see gusts approaching 80 km/h.

Those strong winds combined with the falling snow will likely create near zero visibility at times on the roads due to blowing snow. In some exposed rural areas, there could even be localized blizzard conditions developing for a time, particularly where open farmland allows the wind to easily pick up and blow the snow around.

Once the system wraps up late Friday into early Saturday morning, most of Southern Ontario will be looking at around 10 to 15cm of fresh snow. That will bring back a familiar winter landscape that was wiped out in many areas thanks to the warm temperatures earlier this week.

**Hourly snowfall rates (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first bands of snow are expected to begin working their way into Southwestern Ontario from the west just after sunrise on Friday morning.

That means locations around Lake Huron will likely be the first to experience the steady snowfall. The snow should start out fairly light early in the morning before gradually increasing in intensity.

For Deep Southwestern Ontario around the Windsor and Chatham area, it looks like they will be sitting right near the freezing mark. These areas could start off with some flurries during the pre-dawn hours, but little accumulation is expected.

As temperatures rise above freezing through the morning hours, precipitation will likely switch over to rain by the late morning, which will limit any snowfall accumulation in this region.

That swath of snow will pick up intensity through the late morning with it spreading eastward into the Greater Toronto Area and regions around Lake Simcoe by around the noon hour. As this occurs, snowfall rates are expected to increase across parts of the region.

It appears that an area of elevated snowfall rates approaching 2 to 3cm per hour could briefly set up in regions east of Lake Huron and into the Golden Horseshoe. Even though this intense snowfall would only last for a few hours, it could still lead to some rapid accumulation in a short period of time.

That burst of heavier snow could lead to some quickly deteriorating road conditions leading up to the afternoon commute and make for some slushy and snow covered roads.

It should be mentioned that temperatures in many of these areas will be sitting very close to the freezing mark. Because of that, it is possible that accumulation may not be as efficient as it would be during colder snowfall events.

Some of the snow may melt as it falls or shortly after reaching the ground, especially on roadways that were warmed by the recent mild weather.

We may even see some mixing along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shoreline, especially toward the mid to late afternoon hours when temperatures may briefly creep above freezing.

**wind gusts (km/h)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Another big factor that will enhance the impact of what would normally be considered a fairly uneventful snowfall event is the wind.

Earlier forecast data suggested much stronger and more widespread wind gusts, but recent model runs have toned those values down somewhat.

Even with that reduction, winds are still expected to be quite gusty with gusts near 50 to 70 km/h across Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. Closer to Lake Huron those gusts could approach 80 km/h at times.

Given the heavier snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour at times, these gusts will likely lead to near zero visibility in some areas with widespread blowing and drifting snow developing.

There could even be some localized blizzard conditions east of Lake Huron, which is particularly vulnerable due to its exposed rural roads and open terrain. In these areas, snow can easily be picked up by the wind and blown across roadways, quickly reducing visibility and creating hazardous driving conditions.

Road closures cannot be ruled out in some of the more exposed locations, especially if blowing snow becomes intense during the peak of the storm.

Heading into the late afternoon hours, the snow will have spread into Central and Eastern Ontario, where it is expected to persist into the evening. Some of the areas further east may not see the snow fully taper off until early Saturday morning as the system gradually exits the region.

It appears that the overall intensity of the snow will slowly decrease by the evening hours, with snowfall rates closer to 1 to 2cm per hour in many areas.

The heaviest pockets during the evening appear to be focused on areas north of Lake Ontario such as York Region, Durham Region, Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough before eventually moving into parts of Eastern Ontario after the dinner hour. Hourly snowfall rates in these areas could still briefly exceed 2cm at times through the evening before gradually easing overnight.

For Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area along the Lake Ontario shoreline, rising temperatures near the shoreline will likely lead to a switch from snow to rain by the late afternoon and early evening. This changeover will help limit snowfall totals closer to the lakes.

Another wave of light snow may move in from the west late in the evening and into the overnight hours as colder air flows in behind the departing system. However, this additional snow is not expected to produce significant accumulation.

We are also watching the evening hours closely for Deep Southwestern Ontario, where stronger wind gusts may develop just before midnight.

There is the potential for gusts reaching 80 to 90 km/h for areas such as Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia.

It is even possible that a few isolated severe wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h could occur in localized areas if the strongest winds are able to mix down to the surface.

Overall, we are looking at general snowfall amounts of 10 to 15cm across much of Southern Ontario by Saturday morning.

A few pockets, especially in higher elevation areas like northwest of the Greater Toronto Area and the Dundalk Highlands, could see localized totals approaching 20cm thanks to slightly colder temperatures that will allow snow to accumulate more efficiently.

The 10 to 15cm zone includes Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Hanover, Orangeville, Kitchener, Guelph, Newmarket, Barrie, Collingwood, Midland, Orillia, Bracebridge, Parry Sound, Huntsville, Peterborough, Bancroft, Pembroke, Renfrew, Smiths Falls and Ottawa.

Slightly lower totals of 5 to 10cm are expected from London into the Niagara region and around the Greater Toronto Area near the Lake Ontario shoreline, continuing east into Kingston and up along the St. Lawrence River.

Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing in this corridor, especially during the afternoon hours, which could reduce the ability for snow to accumulate and even allow some rain to mix in at times.

That includes Grand Bend, London, St. Thomas, Tillsonburg, Niagara Falls, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Oshawa, Belleville, Picton, Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall.

To the north, lower snowfall totals of 5 to 10cm are also expected in locations such as Algonquin Park, Deep River, North Bay, Sudbury and Elliot Lake. This is mainly because the heavier precipitation bands are expected to stay south of these regions.

Around 2 to 5cm is expected for Sarnia and Chatham as they see rain for much of the event, with less than 2cm likely for the Windsor and Leamington area, where temperatures remain warm enough for precipitation to fall primarily as rain.

March 12, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Blowing Snow Threat Friday May Give Some Southern Ontario Students an Early Start to March Break

March 12, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/3/13/bus-cancellations

NOTE: Many school boards are off on Friday due to a PA Day. We do not factor PA Days into our forecast because they vary between regions, and even some school boards in the same region can have different PA Days. If you have a PA Day tomorrow, disregard this forecast and enjoy the guaranteed snow day.

Widespread snow is expected to move across Southern Ontario beginning late Friday morning and continuing throughout much of the afternoon and evening. While this will not be a major snowstorm, the combination of steady snowfall and strong wind gusts may create some tricky travel conditions, especially in rural and exposed areas where blowing snow can quickly reduce visibility.

Current projections suggest snowfall totals will generally fall in the 10 to 15 centimetre range by the end of the day in the hardest hit regions. This amount of snow typically sits right near the threshold where school boards begin to consider cancelling buses. However, the biggest complication with this event is the timing.

Unlike snow events that arrive overnight or during the early morning hours, the snow with this system is not expected to begin in most regions until after school transportation decisions have already been made. In many communities, the snow will only just be starting or may not even begin until late morning or early afternoon. That means school boards would need to make proactive decisions based on expected afternoon travel conditions rather than the conditions they see early in the morning.

At this point, Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for parts of the region rather than a snowfall warning or blowing snow advisory. Historically, many school boards are hesitant to cancel buses proactively when only a special weather statement is in place. That means there is a real possibility that some boards choose to run buses and hope conditions hold off until after the afternoon transportation runs.

If Environment Canada upgrades the alerts to a snowfall warning or blowing snow advisory by Friday morning, the probability of cancellations would increase significantly. Until that happens, the timing and messaging around this event keep the forecast a little more uncertain.

Because of that uncertainty, we have capped our highest probability at 50 percent for the regions most likely to experience poor travel conditions. These are areas that tend to be more rural, have a higher number of exposed routes, and are more vulnerable to blowing snow when winds increase during the afternoon.

The regions that currently sit in this toss-up category include all zones within the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Wellington and Dufferin counties under the Upper Grand District School Board. These areas are expected to see some of the more persistent snowfall, along with gusty winds that could produce localized blowing snow. While we are leaning toward at least some cancellations in these regions, the late arrival of the snow keeps confidence from reaching the 75 or 90 percent category.

Beyond these areas, we have placed a wide swath of Southern Ontario in a slight chance category with a 25 percent probability of cancellations. This includes Chatham and Lambton counties under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, all weather zones within the Simcoe County District School Board, South Muskoka along with North and South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Belleville, Prince Edward County, Central and South Lennox and Addington, South Frontenac, and Kingston under Tri Board Student Transportation Services.

These areas may also see periods of blowing snow and reduced visibility through the day on Friday. However, we are leaning toward many of these school boards choosing to operate buses as normal because the snow will not arrive until later in the day for many of these regions. In Central and Eastern Ontario, especially, some boards may decide to roll the dice and hope the worst conditions develop after the afternoon bus run.

In Southwestern Ontario, the lower probability is due in part to some of these regions being more urban, such as Waterloo Region and Guelph, where the threshold for cancellations is typically higher. In other areas, the special weather statement does not specifically mention blowing snow, even though localized blowing snow is still possible with gusty winds.

Across the remainder of Southern Ontario, including northern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, a snow day on Friday appears unlikely. For the urban school boards around the Greater Toronto Area, the expected snowfall amounts are well below the threshold that usually prompts cancellations. Meanwhile, regions farther north and east are expected to see lighter totals overall, with the bulk of the snowfall occurring later Friday afternoon and evening, after the school day is already over.

This forecast comes with a higher-than-normal amount of uncertainty because of the timing of the snow. Many may look at snowfall totals of 10 to 15cm and expect a higher likelihood of cancellations. However, because most of the snow is expected after the morning decision window, the probability of cancellations is slightly lower than it might otherwise be.

Even so, a 25 percent or 50 percent chance is still notable and indicates that at least some regions could see buses cancelled depending on the proactivity of each school board or bus company.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 12, 2026

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Thursday, March 12, 2026

March 12, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: School bussing is cancelled in the following Weather Zones: West Nipissing, Trout Lake/Four Mile Lake, Redbridge/Thorne, Highway 11 North, East Parry Sound North, East Parry Sound South, North Bay, Mattawa, and Callander/Bonfield/East Ferris.
Tri-Board: Coe Hill and Maynooth schools are closed due to power outages.

French Schools

Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: School bussing is cancelled in the following Weather Zones: West Nipissing, Trout Lake/Four Mile Lake, Redbridge/Thorne, Highway 11 North, East Parry Sound North, East Parry Sound South, North Bay, Mattawa, and Callander/Bonfield/East Ferris.

March 11, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Ice Storm Aftermath Could Keep School Buses Off the Roads Thursday in Parts of Central and Eastern Ontario

March 11, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/3/12/bus-cancellations

An ice storm has been impacting parts of Central and Eastern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday, leaving thousands of residents without power. The number of outages is expected to continue climbing as freezing rain continues to accumulate on trees and power lines, bringing down additional branches and infrastructure.

While the freezing rain itself is expected to gradually taper off later Wednesday evening, the impacts from this storm are likely to linger well into Thursday in some of the hardest hit regions. Temperatures are forecast to plunge overnight behind a cold front, which means the ice that has already accumulated will remain firmly in place. In addition, increasing winds developing overnight could place further strain on already stressed trees and power lines, potentially leading to additional outages and hazardous conditions.

Because of the combination of icy roads, potential debris from fallen branches, and widespread power outages, there is a strong possibility that school buses will remain off the roads in several of the hardest hit regions on Thursday morning.

However, there remains an important wildcard in the forecast. Some areas may briefly rise above freezing late Wednesday evening or during the early overnight hours ahead of the approaching cold front. Even a few hours above freezing could significantly improve road conditions in some communities by allowing some of the ice to melt before temperatures drop again overnight.

If that brief warm-up occurs in some locations, it could improve travel conditions enough to allow buses to operate in certain regions. Because of this uncertainty, we have chosen not to place any regions into the 90 percent probability category despite the very real possibility that widespread cancellations may still occur.

The highest probability for another ice-related cancellation day is in areas that were particularly hard hit by the freezing rain and that rely heavily on rural transportation routes. These regions often struggle the most with clearing icy backroads and restoring safe travel conditions.

The strongest chance for an ice day on Thursday includes North Hastings under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas appear to have experienced some of the most severe icing from this storm and rely heavily on rural backroads that may remain hazardous well into Thursday morning. Because of this, we have assigned these regions a 75 percent probability of school bus cancellations.

Across the rest of the rural areas in Eastern and Central Ontario that experienced significant freezing rain, we have assigned a toss-up probability of 50 percent. Conditions in these regions could go either way, depending on how much of the brief warm-up occurs and how quickly crews are able to respond to the storm impacts.

These areas include the Upper Canada District School Board, the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board, including the Pembroke and Renfrew regions, North and Central Frontenac and North Lennox and Addington under Tri Board Student Transportation Services, Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board.

In many of these boards, conditions may vary dramatically from one community to another because of the large geographic area they cover. It would not be surprising to see some transportation providers opt for partial route cancellations depending on where the worst icing and power outages remain.

Widespread power outages may also play a role in the decision-making process, even in areas that briefly rise above freezing. If communities remain without electricity or if fallen trees and lines continue to block roadways, transportation providers may still determine that operating buses is unsafe.

Outside of the hardest hit regions, the probability drops fairly quickly. We have assigned a slight chance of 25 percent for Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri Board Student Transportation Services, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and Parry Sound and North Bay under the Near North District School Board.

While we are leaning toward buses running in these areas, some communities did receive freezing rain during the day on Wednesday and a number of power outages remain in place. With temperatures falling overnight, any remaining moisture on road surfaces could freeze and produce localized icy patches for the Thursday morning commute.

We have also assigned a slight chance of cancellations for the Ottawa Carleton District School Board. Because this board primarily serves urban routes, conditions typically need to be significantly worse before cancellations are issued. Unless additional damage occurs overnight from continued ice accumulation or falling branches, many urban routes may remain passable. That said, the situation will depend heavily on how much additional icing develops this evening and whether the region experiences any temporary warm up.

Across regions east of Lake Huron, we have assigned a low chance of bus cancellations due to the potential for some scattered lake effect snow overnight into Thursday morning. With winds increasing overnight, there is a small possibility that blowing snow could briefly reduce visibility in parts of the region. However, confidence in this scenario remains fairly low and most areas should see conditions remain manageable.

Finally, there is a very low chance of cancellations for areas north and northwest of the Greater Toronto Area. The primary concern in these regions will be the potential for icy conditions developing overnight as temperatures drop and freeze any remaining wet surfaces from earlier rainfall.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 11, 2026

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Wednesday, March 11, 2026

March 11, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: Busses for schools in Zone 5 (Lions Head & Tobermory) are cancelled today.
Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: Bussing for all weather corridors are cancelled today.
Ottawa CarIeton Public & Ottawa Catholic: All school bus/van transportation is cancelled today
Rainbow Public & Sudbury Catholic: All school related transportation services operating in the districts of SUDBURY, ESPANOLA, MASSEY AND MANITOULIN are cancelled today.
Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Transportation services are CANCELLED for ALL AREAS. All schools are closed.
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in Muskoka.
Tri-Board: School transportation is cancelled in Tri-Board’s central and northern weather zones today. SOME schools are closed in these weather zones. Families will receive info from their school if their school is closed.
Trillium LakeIands: All school vehicles to schools in all Zones have been cancelled. All schools are closed.
Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: All transportation is cancelled.

French Schools

Conseil des écoles publiques de l’Est de l’Ontario (CEPEO): All busses are cancelled except in Kingston and Trenton. Schools in Pembroke are closed.
Conseil scolaire de district catholique de l'Est Ontarien (CSDCEO): All busses are cancelled.
Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: All busses are cancelled except in Kingston and Trenton. Schools in Pembroke are closed.
Conseil scolaire public du Grand Nord de l’Ontario (CSPGNO): All school related transportation services operating in the districts of SUDBURY, ESPANOLA, MASSEY AND MANITOULIN are cancelled today.
Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: Bussing for all weather corridors are cancelled today.

March 10, 2026

Major Ice Storm Targeting Ottawa Area Wednesday, Up to 25mm of Freezing Rain Threatens Power Outages Across Central and Eastern Ontario

March 10, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A complex weather story is set to unfold across Southern Ontario over the next 24 hours as cold and warm air clash across the region while a moisture-laden system moves through.

The biggest impact will come in the form of a concerning prolonged ice storm event across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In some areas, this freezing rain could be nearly non-stop for much of Wednesday, leading to up to 24 hours of persistent icing. The worst of the freezing rain is expected to begin overnight Tuesday and continue into Wednesday morning, with a second round arriving later in the day.

The Ottawa Valley and northern sections of Eastern and Central Ontario appear likely to take the brunt of the ice storm, with up to 15-25mm of ice accretion possible. That amount of ice is more than enough to cause substantial damage to infrastructure, raising the threat of widespread and potentially prolonged power outages that may last for days or even weeks.

To make matters worse, some of those hardest hit areas may remain below freezing for the entire duration of the event before temperatures plunge even further late Wednesday as colder air floods in behind the system. This would lock in the ice accretion and allow it to continue weighing down trees and power lines for the foreseeable future. Stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 km/h early Thursday could add additional strain and prompt even more power outages.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, the story will be some noisy nocturnal thunderstorms moving in early Wednesday morning from Michigan. While these storms should remain sub-severe for the most part, they could still produce strong wind gusts that may briefly reach marginally severe levels in a few pockets. Another concern is that this rain could further exacerbate the ongoing spring flooding that is already leading to higher water levels in many watersheds, with widespread 15–30mm of additional rainfall on tap.

After this system moves out, we are set to enter a cooler and more active pattern beginning with a potential snowy system on Friday. Confidence remains fairly low in the exact setup, and some mixing could reduce snowfall totals, especially near the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Huron. However, it could still deliver a widespread 5-15cm of snow, bringing back a snowy landscape that has been melted away in many areas over the past few days.

Current indications suggest the leading edge of the system will begin to move into Southwestern Ontario around or just after midnight. That will arrive in the form of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms stretching across Lake Huron. These storms are actually part of a larger line that merged from earlier severe activity over Illinois and Indiana, where a severe weather outbreak is underway Tuesday evening.

However, by the time these storms reach our region, and especially given that they will need to travel over the cold waters of Lake Huron, we expect they will have weakened considerably by landfall.

There is still an outside chance that a few embedded cells could remain strong enough to produce a marginal wind threat, particularly around Windsor and Sarnia, but that scenario remains very questionable.

Regardless of their strength, these storms will likely wake many residents up overnight thanks to frequent lightning and very heavy downpours.

Further north, the system will encounter a pocket of below-freezing temperatures over the Bruce Peninsula. With warm air in place above the surface, this will allow a swath of freezing rain to develop starting over the Northern Bruce Peninsula and spreading eastward into areas east of Georgian Bay during the pre-dawn hours.

This icing could be quite heavy at times and may even feature some embedded lightning. Across the Sudbury and North Bay areas, precipitation should initially remain on the snow side with some ice pellets mixed in.

In advance of the system, we may also see some scattered freezing drizzle develop late Tuesday evening and continue into the overnight hours across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario.

That swath of freezing rain will continue to progress eastward, with the freezing line roughly located from Bracebridge to Brockville.

Locations just to the south of this line, such as Midland, Orillia, Lindsay and Peterborough, may begin with some freezing rain, but precipitation should quickly transition over to rain as the warmer air advances northward through the mid-morning hours.

This setup will allow the most intense icing to occur from Parry Sound through Huntsville and into Bancroft just before sunrise. It should be noted that some northern sections, such as Algonquin Park, Pembroke and Sundridge, could remain just cold enough to keep some precipitation falling as ice pellets before reaching the ground. This would delay the onset of icing somewhat and reduce overall ice accretion in those locations.

Meanwhile, the line of thunderstorms will continue tracking through Southwestern Ontario, slowly weakening as it approaches the Golden Horseshoe while still producing lightning and heavy rain. This rainfall could be quite intense at times and may lead to rapid accumulation, putting further strain on already saturated watersheds due to ongoing spring runoff. That could trigger additional flooding in some low-lying areas.

By mid-morning, the heavy freezing rain is expected to move into the Ottawa Valley, where it may persist through the late morning hours, bringing rapid ice accretion. Travel could quickly become treacherous for the morning commute in the Ottawa area, and within a few hours, the accumulating ice will likely begin taking a toll on the power grid.

We may also see the freezing rain line nudge northward into North Bay and Sudbury as warmer air aloft continues to expand northward despite the colder air at the surface remaining stubborn.

For the southern parts of Central Ontario, such as Bracebridge, Haliburton and Kawartha Lakes, it appears the warm air will eventually be able to overcome the cold air near the surface. This would allow these areas to escape the worst impacts, although they remain right on the line. If the cold air proves more stubborn than expected, it could keep these areas in freezing rain for several additional hours.

That will likely not be the case farther north across Central and Eastern Ontario, including much of the Ottawa Valley, where models suggest the freezing line will stall to the south.

There remains some disagreement among the models regarding exactly how far north the warmer air will be able to advance. The best chance for temperatures to rise above freezing appears to be along the St. Lawrence River and southeast of Ottawa.

While precipitation should briefly lighten to drizzle by early afternoon as the first round moves into Quebec, additional steady precipitation will begin advancing from the southwest. This second round appears less intense than the first and will likely be light to moderate rather than a continuous downpour of freezing rain.

That precipitation should reach the Ottawa Valley by late Wednesday afternoon, with persistent freezing rain potentially continuing through the evening and into the early morning hours of Thursday. However, the precipitation should become more scattered after midnight, gradually tapering off to drizzle.

Some parts of the Ottawa Valley may briefly rise above freezing, particularly near the southern edge of the ice storm risk around Bancroft, Smiths Falls and Cornwall. If that occurs, it would reduce the overall impact in these areas, although the temperature gradient will be extremely tight.

The hardest hit regions for freezing rain are expected to encompass a large portion of Eastern Ontario along the Quebec border and into the Ottawa Valley. In these areas, total ice accretion is likely to range from 15 to 25mm with localized amounts approaching 30mm.

That includes Ottawa, Hawkesbury, Alexandria, Carleton Place, Perth, Arnprior, Renfrew, Cloyne, Bancroft, Haliburton, Barry’s Bay and Pembroke.

However, keep in mind that actual surface accretion may end up somewhat lower since a large portion of the precipitation will fall during a short timeframe. Some of it may drip off surfaces before it has time to fully freeze when it arrives in heavy bursts.

Another major factor will be whether any areas are able to briefly climb above the freezing mark during the afternoon before the arrival of the second wave of precipitation. If that occurs, some of the earlier ice could melt away and make the second round far less efficient when it comes to additional ice accretion.

That is why this event could easily end up being far less damaging than currently forecast if temperatures trend just slightly warmer. There is often very little middle ground when it comes to ice storms, which is why there is such a tight gradient in our forecast ice totals.

Current projections suggest around 10-15mm of ice for northern sections of Central Ontario, including Parry Sound, Burk’s Falls, Huntsville, Algonquin Park and Deep River. This also extends into the Northern Bruce Peninsula. The slightly lower ice totals are due to temperatures potentially rising near Georgian Bay before the arrival of the second round of precipitation, along with the possibility of ice pellets mixing in farther north.

A similar situation may occur just south of the core ice storm zone, including Apsley, Kaladar, Smiths Falls, Kemptville and Cornwall. We expect the freezing line to eventually reach these areas by the afternoon, shutting off the freezing rain threat and substantially limiting the overall impact compared to locations farther north.

Further south, we are expecting around 5-10mm of ice from Bracebridge through Havelock, Tweed and into Morrisburg. Again, these areas should eventually rise above freezing, which will limit the impact mainly to the morning hours when icing is most persistent.

Across the Midland and Gravenhurst to Fenelon Falls corridor extending eastward toward Brockville, freezing rain should be more brief, primarily during the morning hours, leading to roughly 2-5mm of icing at most. We may also see around 2mm of icing in the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, including Orangeville and Shelburne and extending into the Blue Mountains, although it remains uncertain if temperatures will be cold enough here for significant icing.

Very little icing is expected once you reach Lake Simcoe and areas stretching toward Kingston along the Lake Ontario shoreline. This includes Orillia, Lindsay, Peterborough and Belleville. There may be a brief one to two-hour window of freezing rain early in the morning, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing. Less than 2mm of ice accretion is expected.

**max wind gusts (km/h)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

While the freezing rain should taper off overnight Wednesday, the impacts may continue into Thursday in areas where earlier ice accretion remains locked in place as temperatures drop once again overnight. Ice-covered trees and power lines will remain vulnerable to wind due to the additional weight from the ice.

Unfortunately, stronger wind gusts could develop early Thursday morning with gusts potentially reaching 60-80 km/h in parts of Eastern Ontario. If significant ice remains in place, that would be a recipe for substantial damage to the power grid.

It also does not appear that the ice will be melting anytime soon. The pattern into next week looks to feature mostly below freezing temperatures across Eastern Ontario with wind chills dropping into the negative teens. That could make for dangerous conditions if widespread power outages occur and many homes are left without heat.

**rainfall totals (mm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As for rainfall totals, we are expecting generally around 15-30mm across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe. Localized pockets could see up to 50mm thanks to persistent thunderstorm activity, particularly along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Looking ahead to Friday, we are also monitoring a potential widespread snowfall event across much of Southern Ontario.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding who may see the heaviest snowfall due to the potential for rain mixing in depending on the exact track of the system. However, current indications suggest the heaviest snow could fall across Central and Eastern Ontario, where up to 5-15cm may accumulate throughout the day on Friday.

With Eastern Ontario likely still recovering from the ice storm, that snowfall could add even more weight to already weakened trees and infrastructure. This may lead to another round of falling branches and potentially additional power outages.

More details on Friday’s system will be provided in a separate forecast later this week.

March 10, 2026

‘Snow/Ice Day’ Forecast: Widespread Bus Cancellations and School Closures Likely Wednesday for Ottawa, Eastern and Central Ontario Due to Significant Ice Storm

March 10, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/3/11/bus-cancellations

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A high-impact freezing rain event is expected to develop overnight Tuesday and continue throughout Wednesday across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. This system has the potential to produce significant icing, which could lead to dangerous travel conditions and widespread disruptions.

Environment Canada has already issued strongly worded freezing rain warnings across the region. These alerts mention the potential for 10 to 20 millimetres of ice accretion, which is enough to cause significant travel hazards and possibly widespread power outages. With freezing rain expected to be ongoing during the morning commute, it is highly likely that many school boards in the affected regions will keep buses off the roads. In some cases, full school closures are also possible.

The hardest hit areas are expected to be across Eastern Ontario and Northeastern Ontario. These regions are currently under the core of the freezing rain and winter storm warnings and are forecast to see the longest duration of icing. Because of this, we have assigned a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations to these regions.

This includes areas covered by the Ottawa Carleton District School Board, the Upper Canada District School Board, the Renfrew County District School Board, North and Central Frontenac, North Lennox and Addington, and North Hastings under Tri Board Student Transportation Services, Haliburton and North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Near North District School Board, the Rainbow District School Board, and the Algoma District School Board. With heavy freezing rain expected during the morning bus run, it is difficult to see how buses could operate safely in these areas.

Moving west and south, the probability begins to drop fairly quickly as the expected duration of freezing rain decreases. However, because of the timing of the system, even a few hours of icing during the early morning could be enough to trigger cancellations in some regions.

For that reason, we have assigned a strong 75 percent chance of cancellations to the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board, South Muskoka and North Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are very likely to see cancellations, although there is still a possibility that some boards may attempt to run buses if temperatures warm more quickly than expected in the southern portions of these areas.

In the toss-up category with a 50 percent probability, we have included South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, South Lennox and Addington, and Kingston under Tri Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are expected to see lighter icing compared to areas farther north, and the outcome could depend heavily on how quickly temperatures rise above freezing during the morning hours.

A slight 25 percent chance has been assigned to several areas that sit on the edge of the freezing rain zone. This includes Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford under the Bluewater District School Board, Dufferin County under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Prince Edward County under Tri Board Student Transportation Services.

In these regions, cancellations are less likely. However, if cold air remains entrenched longer than expected, even a short period of freezing rain could leave untreated roads slick enough to create travel concerns, especially for higher elevations.

In the case of Northumberland County and Prince Edward County, significant icing is not currently expected. However, their proximity to the hardest hit regions means there is still the possibility of system-wide transportation decisions that could result in an ice day even if local conditions are not as severe.

A low to very low chance of cancellations extends into the northern portions of the Greater Toronto Area and around Lake Simcoe. These areas may briefly see a period of freezing rain, especially in higher elevations, but the event is expected to transition to rain quickly enough that cancellations are unlikely.

Across Southwestern Ontario and much of the Golden Horseshoe, this storm is expected to bring mainly rain rather than freezing rain. Because of this, no school bus cancellations are expected in those regions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 10, 2026

Weathering the Storm: How to Prepare For an Ice Storm

March 10, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

In advance of the ice storm anticipated to impact the province, we at Instant Weather want to make sure that everyone is ready in the event of potential widespread and long term power outages. The impact of an ice storm is not just dependent on the amount of ice accretion, but also the winds associated with the storm. This is summarized using the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation (SPIA) Index shown below.

It is important to be prepared for these situations so we have put together a list of items you should have on hand in case of an emergency:

Flashlight (windup or battery operated)
Radio (windup or battery operated)
Extra batteries
Portable cell phone charger
Water (2 litres per person per day)
Non-perishable canned or dried food
Manual can opener
Blankets
Candles and matches or lighters
First aid kit and any prescriptions/medical items
List of emergency numbers
Cash
Gasoline

Not sure what kind of food to have ready? Dried food like rice and pasta along with canned tuna can go a long way. Other items such as bread and granola bars are good for fibre and non-refrigerated fruits like bananas, oranges and apples help break up the high-sodium content found in dried foods. Another staple for many are storm chips. For water, an easy way to store a large amount is to fill a bathtub and use the water for drinking, cooking, and flushing toilets.

Since ice storms occur during the winter and early spring months, keeping warm is a major concern during extended power outages from ice storms. Electric baseboard heaters and space heaters will not work. However, natural gas furnaces will still work, but electrical components such as the blower, which forces the warm air through the vents, will not. There are some propane heaters that can be used indoors, but be careful because outdoor propane heaters produce carbon monoxide, making them very dangerous to use inside a home.

Another item worth adding to your emergency kit arsenal is a generator. Generators are available in a variety of sizes and capacities based on individual needs. There are a few things to consider when picking a generator: type, power and additional features.

There are home standby generators that are permanently in place and start up automatically when the power goes out. These units are large and can be quite expensive. There are also smaller, portable generators that either run strictly on gas or on either gas or propane (dual fuel). There is an added benefit of running your generator on propane as it less expensive to run.

Every generator has two power ratings: starting watts and running watts. In order to determine the power of generator you need, you first need to determine what appliances will be running. In the event of an emergency, you may find that the only necessities are the fridge and furnace fan.

It is EXTREMELY important to not run a generator in your house due to the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.

With proper planning and preparation, everyone should be able to get through the stress that comes with extended periods without power. In the case of an ice storm, it’s important to stay indoors and reduce unnecessary travel. Also, we recommend not clogging up emergency lines with non-emergencies. Your power will be back before you know it!

March 09, 2026

Damaging Ice Storm Risk for Ottawa, Eastern and Central Ontario Tuesday Night Into Wednesday

March 09, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Over the past few days, Southern Ontario has been treated to an early taste of spring-like weather. Temperatures soared well into the double digits across many areas, and some locations even managed to hit the 20°C mark for the first time this season.

After experiencing such a dramatic warm-up, it’s hard to imagine how quickly we could be plunging right back into the grip of winter. But it’s important to remember that we are only in early March. This time of year is well known for dramatic swings in the weather, and that reality will become very apparent across Central and Eastern Ontario over the next couple of days.

A moisture-packed system is set to slide through Southern Ontario beginning late Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. This system will bring a wide variety of weather conditions depending on where you are located, ranging from heavy rain and thunderstorms in the south to a prolonged freezing rain threat further north and east.

Those in Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe will continue to enjoy the milder temperatures in the double digits on Tuesday and Wednesday. With temperatures remaining well above freezing in these areas, the main focus will be on periods of heavy rain along with the potential for some thunderstorm activity.

With snowmelt already well underway or even complete following the recent warmth, this additional rainfall could further exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns in some areas. Localized flooding in low-lying areas and near rivers and creeks will remain something to watch closely through midweek.

Further north, this system is likely to encounter some colder air that will become entrenched across Central and Eastern Ontario. This will create a very sharp temperature divide across the province, with areas to the south seeing spring-like conditions while areas further north sit much closer to the freezing mark or even slightly below.

These below-freezing surface temperatures combined with warm air aloft will provide the perfect setup for freezing rain. Multiple waves of precipitation are expected to move through the region, creating the potential for a prolonged freezing rain event.

This pocket of cold air appears like it may become quite entrenched, particularly across Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. As a result, some areas could be dealing with freezing rain for 12-24 hours or even longer if the cold air proves stubborn enough to hold on.

If this scenario plays out, it could lead to ice accretion totals of at least 10mm with localized pockets potentially exceeding 25mm. Amounts like this would be more than enough to result in crippling impacts across parts of Eastern Ontario, including tree damage, widespread power outages and extremely hazardous driving conditions.

The worst icing currently appears likely to arrive in two waves. The first wave is expected to impact Central and Eastern Ontario overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

Later in the day on Wednesday, a second round of precipitation will move through during the late afternoon and evening hours. By this point, areas across Central Ontario and the southern portions of Eastern Ontario may have risen above the freezing mark, which would limit their impacts mostly to the morning hours.

There remains some uncertainty regarding whether the warmer air will be able to overcome the cold air at the surface during the afternoon on Wednesday. If temperatures manage to climb even slightly above freezing for a few hours in the Ottawa Valley, it could make a huge difference.

Even a brief period of above-freezing temperatures would allow some of the ice from the first wave to begin melting before the second round arrives. That could significantly reduce the risk of this becoming a truly destructive ice storm.

This detail will be particularly important because temperatures are expected to plunge again later Wednesday and could remain below freezing for at least the next few days. If no melting occurs beforehand, all of that accumulated ice would remain locked in place and could lead to prolonged impacts on trees and the power grid.

Before the main system arrives, some scattered showers and drizzle may begin developing on Tuesday afternoon across parts of Southern Ontario. Most areas should remain above freezing, but a small pocket along the northern edge of Central Ontario, including Huntsville, Algonquin Park and Pembroke, could be sitting very close to the freezing mark.

If that happens, some of the drizzle could freeze on contact with surfaces during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the main system. While any ice accumulation should remain fairly minimal, it could still create some slick road conditions and add a thin layer of ice before the heavier precipitation arrives overnight.

The first wave of heavier precipitation is expected to slide into Southern Ontario from the west just after midnight Tuesday night. It will then continue spreading eastward through the overnight hours and into early Wednesday morning.

For Southwestern Ontario, it could end up being a rather noisy night. Some nocturnal thunderstorms may move through, especially closer to the Lake Huron and Lake Erie shorelines.

Despite the thunderstorms, temperatures in this region will remain well above freezing, so there are no concerns for freezing rain here.

Further north and east, however, colder air closer to the freezing mark will likely be found along the higher elevations near the Golden Horseshoe, including the Dundalk Highlands. This colder air will extend into Central and Eastern Ontario from around Lake Simcoe through Peterborough and into Kingston.

Models are still disagreeing on just how extensive this below-freezing pocket will be. Some guidance keeps it fairly localized to the Dundalk Highlands, including areas like Orangeville and Shelburne.

Other models suggest a few hours of freezing rain could extend across a much larger area, including parts of the northern GTA, Simcoe County, Peterborough and Kingston.

Regardless of how far south the freezing rain extends, it is expected to be fairly short-lived in these areas as temperatures should rise above freezing by the late morning hours on Wednesday, switching precipitation over to plain rain.

The primary problem area continues to look like a corridor stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Muskoka, Haliburton, Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley.

Current indications suggest the cold air will hold on much longer in this region, and in the case of the Ottawa Valley, temperatures may struggle to rise above freezing at all throughout the day on Wednesday.

As a heavy pocket of freezing rain moves through, starting across Central Ontario during the mid-morning hours and reaching the Ottawa Valley by late morning, substantial ice accretion could begin to build quickly.

Precipitation rates may become quite heavy at times, which adds another layer of uncertainty when it comes to ice accumulation. During intense bursts of freezing rain, some of the liquid can drip off surfaces before it has time to freeze.

Even so, conditions are expected to become treacherous through the morning and into the early afternoon across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. Ice will rapidly build up on tree branches, power lines and other exposed surfaces.

**ESTIMATED TEMP** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

One of the biggest challenges with forecasting freezing rain events is that the setup requires a very specific temperature profile. If models are off by even a single degree, it can dramatically change the outcome.

Just a small temperature difference can mean the difference between a crippling ice storm and a much less impactful rainfall event.

This system is no exception. There are some subtle but important differences between the model solutions that could significantly alter the final outcome.

Most models show above freezing temperatures gradually pushing northward into Central and Eastern Ontario beginning late Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon. The key question is how far north the warmer air will be able to penetrate.

The American model is the most aggressive with the warm air, pushing the freezing line as far north as Bancroft and even Ottawa. If that scenario occurs, locations including Muskoka, Haliburton, Smiths Falls, Brockville, Cornwall and parts of Ottawa could briefly rise above freezing and bring an end to the freezing rain threat by early afternoon.

The Canadian model, on the other hand, keeps the cold air much more entrenched across the Ottawa Valley. In that scenario, temperatures remain below freezing through the afternoon, which would allow freezing rain to continue and prevent any earlier ice accumulation from melting away.

Even if some areas do briefly rise above freezing during the afternoon, that warm-up will likely be short-lived.

Colder air is expected to wrap back into the system as a second round of precipitation moves through Central and Eastern Ontario during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Current indications suggest the mixing line may set up somewhere around Muskoka, extending eastward through Bancroft and into the Brockville area.

This would allow another swath of heavy freezing rain to develop across the Ottawa Valley, which could add even more ice accumulation and further amplify impacts during the evening hours. This should taper off around midnight, switching to light snow overnight into Thursday morning.

For Southwestern Ontario, there is also the possibility of some freezing rain or snow mixing in toward the later part of Wednesday as colder air wraps in behind the departing system. At this point, however, any wintry precipitation in the southwest is not expected to be significant.

When it comes to the hardest hit areas, we are currently looking at ice storm level impacts potentially developing across much of Eastern Ontario. This includes communities such as Ottawa, Hawkesbury, Alexandria, Cornwall, Kemptville, Carleton Place, Smiths Falls, Perth, Arnprior, Renfrew, Bancroft, Pembroke, Barry’s Bay, Haliburton and Minden.

General ice accretion across this region could range from 10 to 25mm with localized pockets, especially east of Ottawa, closer to the Quebec border, potentially exceeding 25mm.

As mentioned earlier, locations along the southern edge of this zone, including Perth, Smiths Falls, Kemptville and Cornwall, could see somewhat lower ice totals if temperatures briefly rise above freezing during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Outside of the ice storm zone, prolonged freezing rain is still expected across much of Central and Eastern Ontario, roughly north of a line from Orillia to Brockville.

This includes areas such as Brockville, Westport, Kaladar, Havelock, Fenelon Falls, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Burk’s Falls and Sundridge.

Ice accretion in these areas will likely range from 5 to 15mm, with most of the accumulation occurring during the morning hours on Wednesday before temperatures rise above freezing later in the day.

Exactly how quickly this switchover to rain occurs will determine the final ice totals. A faster transition to rain would likely keep totals closer to 5mm, while a slower warm-up could allow some areas to approach 15mm.

Some brief freezing rain during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday is also possible for locations including Midland, Orillia, Lindsay and Kingston. However, it should remain very minor as temperatures are expected to rise above freezing fairly quickly, switching precipitation over to rain after an hour or two.

The higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands may be able to hold onto below-freezing temperatures for a few additional hours. Areas such as Orangeville and Shelburne could see around 2 to 6mm of freezing rain accumulation, mostly during the morning hours.

Once temperatures climb above freezing, though, impacts in these areas should quickly improve.

In locations that remain mostly rain, we are generally expecting between 20 and 40mm of rainfall across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

Localized heavier pockets of 50 to 75mm are possible closer to the Lake Erie shoreline, especially in areas that see thunderstorm activity develop within the system.

Keep in mind that this remains a preliminary forecast, and details may still shift before the system arrives. We will have a much more refined forecast on Tuesday with updated timing and precipitation totals as we get closer to the event.

March 09, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, March 10, 2026

March 09, 2026/ Brennen Perry

NOTE: We issue a ‘snow day’ forecast every school night, even when there is no chance.

Our daily updates for the season will conclude on March 31st.

Spring-like weather continues across Southern Ontario for Tuesday, with no winter weather hazards expected.

As a result, all areas of Southern Ontario have a less than 5% chance of school bus cancellations on Tuesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 08, 2026

Southern Ontario: Daily ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, March 9, 2026

March 08, 2026/ Brennen Perry

NOTE: We issue a ‘snow day’ forecast every school night, even when there is no chance.

Our daily updates for the season will conclude on March 31st.

With Southern Ontario currently experiencing above-freezing temperatures throughout Monday, there is no chance of impactful winter weather.

As a result, no school bus cancellations are expected on Monday anywhere in Southern Ontario.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 06, 2026

Wickedly Windy Weekend in Store Across Alberta, Widespread Gusts up to 100km/h

March 06, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

***NOTE: if you click or tap on this image you can zoom in***

It’s going to be a blustery weekend across Alberta, with strong wind gusts in excess of 70km/h expected at some point over the next two days for most of the province. These strong winds will strike in two rounds as two separate systems are slated to track through the Prairies this weekend.

The first system will begin to make its way into Northern Alberta Friday evening. it will bring a mixture of snow, rain, and freezing rain to the region overnight and through Saturday morning.

This system won’t bring too much snow to the area; a maximum of 5-10cm is expected and this will be isolated more to the Northeast. As far as freezing rain is concerned, it will be patchy and occur south of where the snow will fall. Total accretion will be limited to 1-2mm, but this will still be enough for untreated surfaces to become slippery.

***The rdps model showing total snowfall as of 2pm mt on Saturday. courtesy of WeatherBell.***

To the south of the passage of this system, it’s a completely different story. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be well above seasonal throughout Central and Southern Alberta, climbing into the double digits and maybe approaching the 20°C mark closer to the US border.

The first round of strong winds will also be found south of the system that will be tracking through Northern Alberta. The winds will start to pick up overnight Friday and peak Saturday morning. Wind gusts of 70-90km/h are expected through the Foothills and stretching across the width of the province to the north of Edmonton. Meanwhile, slightly weaker gusts, in the 50-70km/h range, will impact much of the rest of Central and Southern Alberta.

***The rdps model showing showing wind gusts on Saturday at 11am mt. courtesy of WeatherBell.***

This first round of strong winds will start to die down in the afternoon and evening for most of the province. However, the gusts will remain strong throughout the Rockies and communities closer to the International border. Beyond these areas, things will become calm for a few hours before the second system begins to make its way into the province later Saturday evening.

This second system is also expected to move through Northern Alberta, but it will track slightly to the south. Once again, snow is expected to fall across a swath of Northern Alberta crosses through the region from Saturday evening to Sunday evening, with models suggesting that up to 20cm could fall.

The winds are expected to be even stronger on Sunday as the cold front associated with the second system pushes southward and also leads to much cooler temperatures across most of the province. The winds will ramp back up Saturday evening and continue into Sunday afternoon before things start to quieten down in the evening. Widespread gusts up to 100km/h are likely during this time and gusts exceeding 100km/h can be also expected in Southwest Alberta.

***The rdps model showing 24 hour snowfall amounts as of 9am mt on Monday. courtesy of WeatherBell.***

The end of the strong winds won’t be the end of active weather for the weekend. Snow is expected to develop Sunday evening across the Southern Foothills, which will spread eastward into the early morning hours of Monday before dissipating. Around 5-15cm of snow can be expected by lunchtime on Monday from Olds to the Montana border.

March 06, 2026

Southern Ontario Could Soar Near 20°C This Weekend as ‘March Melt’ Triggers Rapid Snowmelt, Flooding Risk and Thunderstorms

March 06, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After what felt like a winter that would never end across Southern Ontario, our first widespread taste of spring-like weather is finally on the horizon just in time for the weekend.

While parts of Southwestern Ontario have already seen brief stretches of double-digit temperatures this year, those warmer readings have been fairly localized. That is about to change on Saturday as temperatures are expected to soar well into the double digits across most of Southern Ontario. There is even a chance that Deep Southwestern Ontario could see the first 20°C day of the year.

Unfortunately, this warm-up will come at a cost. The milder temperatures will arrive alongside heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorm activity beginning Friday evening and continuing through much of Saturday.

As the warmer air moves in, it will also bring a more unstable atmosphere. Because of this, there is a conditional risk for marginally severe storms in parts of Southwestern Ontario extending toward the Niagara region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this threat, as storms will have to contend with the very cold waters of Lake Huron and Lake Erie, which can act as a natural storm shield for Southern Ontario.

Another concern with this system is the flooding potential. The combination of double-digit temperatures and heavy rainfall over an area that still has a fairly significant snowpack, especially across Central Ontario, could lead to rapid snowmelt and rising water levels.

Current model guidance suggests that this brief warm spell could trigger rapid melting of the snowpack. This would introduce a large amount of additional water into local rivers and watersheds on top of the 25 to 50 mm of rainfall that is expected from this system.

Those in areas that are prone to spring flooding should begin preparing for the possibility of rising water levels over the next several days into early next week. As the snowpack melts and rain continues to fall, that water will gradually work its way through the watershed. Additional rainfall toward the middle of next week, combined with another round of double-digit temperatures, could further worsen the situation.

**SIMULATED RADAR** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first round of heavier rainfall is expected to develop late Friday and continue into the overnight hours. This area of rain may also contain embedded non-severe thunderstorms, particularly around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, extending eastward into parts of Eastern Ontario.

These pockets of storms may produce locally heavier rainfall totals along with small hail and frequent lightning strikes.

By mid-morning on Saturday, areas from Southwestern Ontario into the Greater Toronto Area should see a brief break from the heavier rainfall. Periods of drizzle may continue through the rest of the morning while the focus for heavier rain and thunderstorms shifts toward Eastern Ontario before gradually moving out by around the lunch hour.

Another cluster of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop and move into Southwestern Ontario sometime during the late morning or early afternoon hours. There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the exact intensity of this line as it crosses Southern Ontario.

It cannot be ruled out that a marginally severe storm could develop within this cluster. The main threats would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. This risk appears to be slightly higher around the Niagara region, where storms could move into an environment that becomes more favourable for severe weather through the early to mid-afternoon hours.

After this cluster moves through, there is also the possibility of additional isolated storms developing over Michigan and Lake Huron. These storms could then track into Southwestern Ontario by the late afternoon or early evening hours.

This time period may present the greatest severe weather potential of the day. However, there is still uncertainty related to the timing of the earlier cluster of storms. If that earlier activity clears out quickly enough, it would allow the atmosphere time to recover and become unstable again by late afternoon, creating a more supportive environment for additional storm development.

Another important factor is the time of year. This would be our first thunderstorm risk of the season, and the lakes remain extremely cold. When storms move over these cold waters, they often weaken, which can limit their ability to become severe. This is one reason why early-season storm risks across Southern Ontario often underperform expectations.

Because of this uncertainty, we are currently forecasting a level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk, also known as a marginal risk. This represents the potential for storms capable of producing wind gusts up to around 90 km/h, hail up to quarter size and brief heavy rainfall. While the tornado risk appears to be fairly low, it can never be completely ruled out when dealing with severe thunderstorms.

Locations within the marginal risk area include Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Hanover, Brantford, Hamilton and Niagara Falls.

Across the rest of Southern Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area, Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, there will still be a chance for thunderstorms. However, most of these storms are expected to remain below severe limits and will likely occur during the overnight hours into Saturday morning and early afternoon.

Aside from the thunderstorm threat, heavy rainfall will be a major story with this system. Widespread rainfall totals of 25 to 50 mm are expected across many areas by the end of Saturday.

The heaviest rain is expected to stretch from the Lake Huron shoreline northeastward through Central Ontario and into portions of Eastern Ontario. Most areas within this corridor will likely see around 25 to 40 mm of rainfall, although localized thunderstorms could push totals closer to 50 mm or even as high as 65 mm in isolated locations where storms repeatedly track over the same area.

Deep Southwestern Ontario and parts of the Golden Horseshoe are expected to receive around 10 to 25 mm of rain. However, rainfall totals will be highly variable depending on thunderstorm activity. Some locations could easily exceed 25 mm if stronger storms develop.

**ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH (CM)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Even without the snowpack, this amount of rainfall would already be somewhat concerning for early March. In some areas, the ground remains partially frozen, which limits its ability to absorb rainfall efficiently and increases the likelihood of runoff.

The additional concern comes from the amount of snow still on the ground in parts of Southern Ontario. Snow depth remains quite significant across many areas, especially in Central Ontario.

Model estimates indicate that the deepest snowpack is currently located across Muskoka and into Algonquin Park. However, this is only an estimate. Given the amount of lake effect snow that some of these regions received this winter, the true depth may not be fully captured in the model data.

Current estimates suggest snow depths of roughly 50 to 100 cm in the deepest locations. That represents a large amount of stored water that will eventually enter local rivers and streams as melting begins.

With temperatures climbing well into the double digits on Saturday across much of Southern Ontario, including parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, the snowpack is expected to begin melting rapidly. When combined with 25 to 50 mm of rainfall, this could lead to a fairly rapid influx of water into the watershed.

Forecast models disagree somewhat on how quickly the snowpack will melt. The European model is slightly less aggressive with melting, while the American model shows a much more dramatic reduction in snow depth over the weekend.

According to the American model scenario, most of the snowpack across Southern Ontario could largely disappear by the end of Sunday. The only remaining snow would likely be confined to a small pocket around Muskoka with roughly 5 to 20 cm still on the ground.

If this scenario verifies, it would mean that a large portion of Southern Ontario’s snowpack could melt and enter the watershed within about 48 hours. That would represent a significant amount of water moving through the system in a relatively short period of time.

Residents in flood-prone areas, particularly those located near rivers and streams that commonly experience spring flooding, should be prepared for the possibility of rising water levels over the coming week. This concern is especially relevant across Central and Eastern Ontario, where much of the deeper snowpack is located.

In terms of temperatures, the warmest air is expected to arrive on Saturday. Daytime highs will climb well into the double digits by late morning and afternoon across most of Southern Ontario. For many locations, this will likely be the warmest day experienced so far in 2026.

The warmest conditions will likely occur across Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham. Current data support temperatures reaching the upper teens and possibly even approaching the 20°C mark for the first time this year. It is still somewhat uncertain whether temperatures will reach that milestone, but if it happens, the Windsor area would be the most likely location.

Across the rest of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe, daytime highs are expected to reach the mid to upper teens. Areas closer to the shorelines of the Great Lakes, along with higher elevations northwest of the Greater Toronto Area, may end up slightly cooler with highs closer to 12 to 15°C.

Double-digit temperatures should also extend into Central and Eastern Ontario. Highs around 12 to 15°C are expected from Lake Simcoe through Peterborough and into Brockville.

Areas directly along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Oshawa to Kingston will likely remain slightly cooler with daytime highs around 9 to 12°C due to the influence of the cold lake waters.

Across the rest of Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, temperatures are expected to reach the high single digits or low teens, with most areas topping out around 9 to 12°C.

A brief cooldown will arrive late Saturday night as colder air moves back into the region. Overnight lows will fall back near the freezing mark or into the low single digits. Daytime highs on Sunday will struggle to climb out of the single digits for many locations.

However, this cooldown will be short-lived. Double-digit temperatures are expected to return again on Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as the active weather pattern continues.

March 05, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Freezing Rain Risk & Thick Fog on Friday May Give Some Students in Southern Ontario an Early Start to the Weekend

March 05, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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A conditional freezing rain risk is expected to develop across parts of Southern Ontario during the evening on Thursday, with areas of drizzle continuing overnight into Friday morning. The greatest risk for icing currently appears to be around the western Greater Toronto Area and along the northern shoreline of Lake Ontario. However, there remains considerable uncertainty with the temperature forecast, which will ultimately determine how much ice is able to accumulate on surfaces.

If temperatures remain just above freezing, most of the precipitation will fall as plain rain or drizzle with minimal impacts. However, if temperatures dip even slightly below freezing, that drizzle could freeze on contact and produce slick road conditions across untreated surfaces.

In addition to the freezing rain risk, there are also indications that patches of fog could develop across parts of Southwestern Ontario overnight and linger into Friday morning. Fog can significantly reduce visibility on rural roads and highways, which may create hazardous travel conditions for the early morning commute.

When it comes to the potential impact on school buses, the timing of the freezing rain makes this a challenging forecast. Most of the precipitation is expected to taper off around or shortly after midnight for many areas. That would provide several hours for road crews to treat and clear surfaces before buses begin operating Friday morning.

However, localized icy patches could still linger, particularly in rural areas with untreated backroads. In addition, freezing drizzle is notoriously difficult for models to capture. Even after the main precipitation ends, light freezing drizzle could continue into the early morning hours, creating new icy spots that are difficult to anticipate in advance.

Because of these uncertainties, the highest probability for bus cancellations is focused on the more rural school boards north of Lake Ontario, where road conditions can take longer to improve.

At this time, we have assigned a toss-up probability of 50 percent for Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, as well as Belleville, Prince Edward County, South Lennox and Addington, and Kingston under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas are positioned close to where temperatures may hover near the freezing mark overnight, increasing the potential for icy conditions to develop on untreated roads.

A slight chance of 25 percent extends into surrounding regions, including Clarington and Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

We have also assigned a slight chance for several regions within the Golden Horseshoe where some freezing rain may occur this evening. This includes North Niagara under the Niagara Region District School Board, Hamilton under the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board, northern Halton under the Halton District School Board, Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, and North Peel under the Peel District School Board.

These areas may experience some icing overnight if temperatures drop enough. However, their more urban nature, combined with the fact that precipitation is expected to end earlier in the night, makes it uncertain whether conditions will still be severe enough by Friday morning to warrant cancellations.

Because fog may also become an issue overnight in parts of Southwestern Ontario, we have included a separate slight chance for fog-related transportation disruptions. The highest probability we assign for fog events is 25 percent due to the localized nature of fog development.

This fog-related zone includes Oxford, Elgin and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, all regions within the Avon Maitland District School Board, Lambton County and Chatham Kent under the Lambton Kent District School Board, and Essex County under the Greater Essex County District School Board. If dense fog develops in these areas overnight, some rural transportation providers may choose to cancel or delay buses due to reduced visibility.

Across the remainder of Southwestern Ontario, Central Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and the rest of the Golden Horseshoe, we have assigned a widespread low to very low chance of cancellations.

While most areas in this zone are expected to have a normal school day on Friday, a few surprise cancellations cannot be completely ruled out. Localized freezing drizzle overnight, combined with falling temperatures, could allow earlier rainfall to freeze on road surfaces, producing isolated patches of black ice by the morning commute.

Ultimately, conditions will vary significantly from one community to another, and any decisions will come down to local road conditions early Friday morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 04, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow (Fog) Day’ Forecast for Thursday, March 5, 2026

March 04, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Thick fog is expected to redevelop across portions of Southwestern Ontario on Wednesday evening, with some of that fog potentially lingering into the early hours of Thursday morning.

This comes after dense fog led to widespread school bus cancellations across several rural school boards in the region on Wednesday morning. While the fog tonight does not appear to be as widespread or intense as last night, it may still be enough to cause visibility issues in some communities by Thursday morning.

Because of this, there remains the possibility that a few school boards could opt to cancel buses or delay service if visibility is significantly reduced during the early morning hours.

At this time, the most likely areas where a potential “fog day” could occur include Lambton County and Chatham-Kent under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board, and all regions within the Avon Maitland District School Board.

These areas have historically shown a willingness to cancel buses when dense fog significantly reduces visibility along rural transportation routes. However, fog can be extremely difficult to forecast with precision. Conditions may be dense in one community while remaining relatively clear just a few kilometres away.

Because of this uncertainty, the highest probability we assign to fog-related cancellations is 25 percent. While cancellations are certainly possible in these regions, confidence is not high enough to suggest anything more widespread.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a low to very low chance of cancellations. Some patchy fog could still develop outside of the main fog-prone areas, but the likelihood of it becoming dense enough to trigger transportation decisions appears limited.

A similarly low probability extends into parts of Eastern Ontario along the northeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario. In particular, localized fog patches may develop near Kingston and surrounding rural communities under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. However, the fog in this area is expected to be scattered and not widespread enough to pose a significant concern for school transportation.

Across the remainder of Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, Central Ontario, and the Ottawa Valley, no impactful weather is expected during the school day on Thursday.

As a result, school bus cancellations are not expected in these regions, and most students across the province should be heading to school as usual.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 03, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow (Fog/Ice) Day’ Forecast for Wednesday, March 4, 2026

March 03, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Localized patches of thick fog are expected to develop across parts of Southern Ontario late Tuesday night and persist into Wednesday morning. In some areas, this fog could become quite dense, reducing visibility significantly during the early morning hours when school transportation decisions are typically made.

Adding to the concern is the potential for temperatures to hover near the freezing mark overnight. Where this occurs, freezing fog may develop, allowing tiny droplets of moisture to freeze on contact with cold surfaces. This can lead to a light glaze of ice forming on untreated roads, sidewalks, and rural backroads.

Because of the combination of reduced visibility and the possibility of icy patches, there is a chance that some school boards may opt to cancel buses or implement delayed starts on Wednesday morning. However, forecasting fog-related cancellations is notoriously difficult because fog can be extremely localized. One community may experience dense fog while a nearby town remains completely clear.

For that reason, no single region stands out as having a guaranteed chance of cancellations. Instead, the forecast leans toward scattered and localized decisions depending on where the fog becomes thickest and whether freezing fog creates slick road conditions.

As a result, the highest probability we are assigning anywhere in the region is a 25 percent chance.

This widespread 25 percent zone includes areas under the Greater Essex County District School Board, Chatham-Kent and Lambton County under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex, Oxford and Elgin counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, all regions within the Avon Maitland District School Board, and the southern portion of the Bluewater District School Board.

These areas are expected to see the most widespread fog development overnight and into early Wednesday morning. Many of these boards also cover large rural transportation zones where dense fog has historically prompted cancellations or delays due to safety concerns for bus drivers.

Outside of these regions, a broader low to very low chance extends across the remainder of Southwestern Ontario and into parts of Central Ontario. In these areas, patchy fog or localized freezing drizzle may still develop, potentially leading to isolated slick spots on untreated roads. However, confidence in widespread impacts is low, so these regions have been assigned only around a 5-10 percent chance of cancellations.

Across the Golden Horseshoe and the Ottawa Valley, conditions are expected to remain largely manageable. Urban school boards in these regions tend to have a much higher threshold for weather-related cancellations, and current forecasts do not suggest visibility or icing conditions will reach that level.

Because of this, bus cancellations are not expected across the Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton area, or Ottawa on Wednesday morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 02, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, March 3, 2026

March 02, 2026/ Brennen Perry

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the school day on Tuesday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

March 01, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, March 2, 2026

March 01, 2026/ Brennen Perry

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the school day on Monday. While a cold warning is in effect for some areas, wind chills aren’t expected to reach the threshold to prompt cancellations.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Weather Forecasts & Articles

Sunday: Snow Spreads In, With Ice and Wind Developing Later

Monday: Peak of the Storm Brings the Most Widespread Impacts

Tuesday: Snow Squalls and Strong Winds Continue

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