June 21, 2025

Southern Ontario to Kick Off Summer This Weekend With Significant Severe Risk and Tornado Threat on Saturday; Sizzling Heat Near 40°C on Sunday

June 21, 2025/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

Summer officially arrived late Friday night with the summer solstice, and it looks like Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time making it feel like summer across Southern Ontario. A multi-day heat wave is on the way, bringing the potential for record-breaking temperatures starting Sunday and continuing into early next week.

But before the heat sets in, we’re looking at what could easily be our strongest and most widespread severe weather threat of the season so far on Saturday. There are a lot of factors at play that make this a classic ‘boom or bust’ setup, which we’ll break down below.

There’s high confidence in a potent storm environment stretching across much of Southern Ontario. The big wildcard, however, is whether storms will actually develop to take advantage of all that energy. If they do, they could bring very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and possibly even a couple of tornadoes.

What’s especially concerning is that the storm environment doesn’t fade away after sunset like it typically does. In fact, it remains quite strong through the overnight and into Sunday morning, which could support a nocturnal line of storms with widespread damaging wind potential.

Once the severe risk passes, intense heat begins to build. Temperatures will soar well into the 30s by Sunday, with humidex values making it feel closer to the 40s. The heat continues Monday and Tuesday, with some relief expected midweek. That said, it’ll likely stay warm into the end of June and possibly early July.

A key ingredient in Saturday’s severe weather threat is already unfolding over North Dakota early Saturday morning. An intense line of storms, known as a “derecho” (a fast-moving complex of severe thunderstorms that can produce widespread wind damage), is sweeping through the northern Plains.

This system is producing destructive wind gusts of over 150 km/h along with several tornadoes and has already left damage in its wake. It’s expected to continue tracking eastward into the Great Lakes region through the day.

**SIMULATED RADAR** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

So what does that mean for Southern Ontario?

Derechos are known to travel long distances, and current model guidance suggests this one could follow a path toward Northeastern Ontario. Areas near the U.S. border, including Sault Ste. Marie and Elliot Lake, could be affected by the remnants of this system Sunday morning.

There’s still some uncertainty around how strong the system will be by the time it reaches Ontario. Forecast models often struggle with capturing the evolution and intensity of derechos, so the possibility that this one is being underestimated shouldn’t be ignored.

The projected track of what’s left of this potentially decaying derecho places it crossing Lake Huron and Georgian Bay into Central Ontario sometime Saturday afternoon.

If it maintains strength, it could bring damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of toonies and maybe even an isolated tornado. But this could just be the first of multiple storm rounds.

Some models are also hinting at additional isolated storm development around Elliot Lake and Sudbury in the wake of the earlier line. That suggests the atmosphere could quickly recharge, although it’s still unclear how widespread any new storms would be.

**ESTIMATED ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As we move into the late afternoon and evening hours on Saturday, the storm environment really ramps up. One of the key indicators we look at, the Significant Tornado Parameter, is literally off the charts in some areas, particularly near the Lake Huron shoreline and into Georgian Bay.

Here’s the catch, though: storms need to develop in this environment to take advantage of it. If they do, they could rapidly become severe, with the potential for all hazards. That includes large hail (possibly golf ball-sized or bigger), destructive winds over 100 km/h, and tornadoes.

Looking at what one model is simulating, there’s a notable lack of storms in the highest risk areas around Lake Huron. Instead, storms appear to fire up along a line from Sudbury to Parry Sound through Muskoka, just northeast of the most primed environment. These storms could still be strong and bring similar hazards.

It’s worth noting that models may be underdoing storm development in Southwestern Ontario. That’s something we’ll need to monitor in real time. If nothing happens in Southwestern Ontario, it could end up being a ‘bust’ - which would be good news for those who aren’t fans of severe storms.

Typically, severe weather threats wind down after sunset as daytime heating fades. But in this case, models are suggesting the environment will remain unusually supportive of storm activity well into the overnight hours and early Sunday.

There’s even the potential that a new line of storms forms north of Georgian Bay and sweeps southeast through Southern Ontario overnight. If this happens, it could evolve into another derecho-type system - similar to the one seen Friday night in North Dakota.

Forecasting derechos is notoriously difficult, as models often fail to capture their full strength and endurance. While nothing is certain, this setup definitely has the ingredients to support a nocturnal derecho-type event.

If this scenario plays out, we could see widespread wind damage across Central and Eastern Ontario, possibly extending into parts of Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

This is a very tricky forecast, and while we've gone with a ‘significant’ (level 4 out of 5) risk, that doesn’t mean everyone will see storms. The risk will come in waves, and some areas may be completely missed.

That said, the potential severity of any storms that do form justifies this level of concern. We’re talking about the possibility of golf ball-sized hail or larger, destructive wind gusts (possibly from a derecho), and a few tornadoes. The tornado risk will largely depend on storm structure—more linear setups will favour damaging wind, while discrete supercells could increase the tornado threat.

The highest severe risk covers areas around Georgian Bay including Sault Ste. Marie, Elliot Lake, Manitoulin Island, Britt, and into Central Ontario such as Muskoka, Simcoe County and Bancroft.

A broader ‘strong’ risk zone includes much of Central and Eastern Ontario, the northern portions of Southwestern Ontario, and the Greater Toronto Area.

Meanwhile, areas like London, Kitchener, Hamilton and the Niagara region fall into the widespread severe risk category.

For once, Deep Southwestern Ontario may dodge the worst of the storms. Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia are currently in the isolated severe risk zone. While a stray storm can’t be ruled out, most of that region looks to stay quiet Saturday.

There may be another round of severe weather on Sunday afternoon and evening, but confidence in the details is still low. Eastern Ontario may be favoured, but we’ll refine that forecast once Saturday plays out.

Sunday marks the beginning of an extended stretch of dangerously hot temperatures. The most intense heat is expected across Deep Southwestern Ontario into the Golden Horseshoe.

Areas like Windsor, Sarnia, London, Hamilton, Kitchener and Toronto could see daytime highs between 35°C and 40°C. With humidity, it will feel like the mid-40s in many spots.

Locations near Lake Ontario, Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler, but it doesn’t take much distance inland to hit the oppressive heat.

Elsewhere in Southern Ontario, expect highs in the low to mid-30s with humidex values near 40°C.

Heat Safety Tips:

Stay hydrated and avoid strenuous outdoor activity during peak heat hours.
Check in on vulnerable individuals, including the elderly, young children and those with health conditions.
Never leave pets or people in parked vehicles.
Use fans or air conditioning when possible and find shade or cooling centres if needed.

There’s a good chance many locations will break temperature records going as far back as the 1800s over the next few days.

According to Environment Canada, record highs in cities like Toronto, Windsor, Ottawa, London and Hamilton are in the mid to upper 30s for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Based on the current forecast, some of these records may fall.

Monday brings more of the same, with extreme heat expanding into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario in addition to Southwestern Ontario and the GTA.

Once again, humidex values will push into the 40s, making it feel extremely uncomfortable and even dangerous for some.

Tuesday will still be hot, but may be slightly cooler compared to Monday. Some relief is on the way by Wednesday, although temperatures will likely stay warm overall.

June 20, 2025

Drenching Rain to Start the Summer Across Southern Alberta with Up to 100mm Raising Concerns of Flooding

June 20, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Friday is the official start to summer and the season is going to have a really wet beginning for most of Southern Alberta and parts of Central Alberta. A low pressure system from the Pacific will move into the region and additional moisture will be drawn northward, which will lead to widespread rainfall amounts of 50-100mm by Sunday morning. Some are even drawing comparisons between this incoming rainfall to the flooding rains from June 19-21, 2013.

Light rain has already begun to fall across the region Friday morning, but it will it will build throughout the day to a more steady rainfall, mostly in the Foothills. Later in the evening, the steady rain will then start to move into the rest of Southern Alberta from Montana.

The rain will intensify further beginning early Saturday morning, falling at rates that could exceed 10mm/hr, and this is expected to continue straight into the late afternoon in the hardest hit areas. Rates this high will easily lead to over 50mm of rain falling across a wide area.

***Modelled Hourly rainfall rates at 5am CT Saturday, Courtesy of WeatherBell.***

During this time, areas between Calgary and the International border could find themselves in a break in the precipitation, which would result in lower rainfall totals. However, there is some disagreement between weather models on whether this will occur.

The rainfall will then start to weaken late Saturday afternoon to a steady light rain before it dissipates early Sunday morning. By this point, the majority of Southern Alberta can expect to have received 50-75mm of rain and up to 100mm in the Southern Foothills. Parts of the Foothills could see well over 100mm of rain, with some models suggesting that 150-200mm is possible. This is the most extreme case, but the possibility does exist.

On top of all of the rain, wet snow is expected in the Rockies, especially at higher elevations, throughout both Friday and Saturday. Snowfall accumulations could easily surpass 10cm with the amount of moisture this system is bringing to the region.

With this amount of precipitation coming in such a short period of time, flooding is a major concern. Those who live in low-lying areas and/or near waterways should prepare for the possibility of flooding. Luckily, the snowpack in the mountains is considerably less than what it was with the 2013 floods so it’s unlikely that we are looking at a similar outcome with the incoming rainfall. The winds will also be quite strong, with gusts up 80km/h, and with the rain-soaked ground, this could lead to trees being uprooted.

June 19, 2025

Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk Once Again on Thursday Targeting Saskatchewan and Manitoba with a Heightened Tornado Threat

June 19, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Severe weather is once again in the forecast for today, with a Strong severe thunderstorm risk for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The storms today will be triggered by a low pressure system that crossed into Saskatchewan from Alberta overnight. Heat and humidity will build throughout the day in Eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba, so by the time the low moves into this region later on, the environment will be primed for strong severe thunderstorm development.

There have been some scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms in Central Saskatchewan already today, which should clear up in the early and mid-afternoon. Then, later this afternoon, isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to start to develop from Saskatoon and into Eastern Saskatchewan, at around 3-5pm.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST/7pm CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

The storms could start off strong, particularly the ones that develop in the Saskatoon area, and are expected to strengthen further as they travel eastward, likely becoming supercellular in nature. Severe thunderstorms from Eastern Saskatchewan could move into Southwestern Manitoba as early as 4pm local time, but most models are suggesting this likely won’t happen until after 7pm. These storms will gradually lose strength after a few hours as they move through the region, becoming sub-severe by midnight.

The thunderstorms that develop closer to the American border could end up travelling along a southeasterly trajectory, which would limit the impacts of the storms from reaching the Red River Valley and Winnipeg area. There is the possibility, however, of a storm or two developing along the provincial border later in the evening which could eventually hit Winnipeg overnight as a sub-severe thunderstorm.

***Simulated Radar from the NAM model showing 1am CT, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

Development that initiates in the Saskatoon area will eventually cross into Central Manitoba, likely shortly after midnight, but at this point the severe risk should be diminished and the main threat will be heavy rain associated with some strong wind gusts.

The strong severe weather threat today extends from east of Saskatoon southeastward into Manitoba and into North Dakota. The severe thunderstorms in this area could end up producing hail that’s larger than golf balls, wind gusts exceeding 100km/h, and possibly a tornado.

The greatest risk for these impacts, however, is expected to be in areas along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A corridor that stretches from Yorkton, Saskatchewan to Virden, Manitoba has been specifically highlighted by Environment Canada as an area where the environment will be conducive to the development of one or two tornadoes today.

June 18, 2025

Severe Storms Target Southwestern Ontario Wednesday with Tornado and Damaging Wind Risk

June 18, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Storm season has certainly gotten off to a slow start in Southern Ontario, to say the least. Aside from a few scattered events earlier in the spring, it’s been a fairly quiet lead-up to summer across the region.

However, that’s about to change in a big way. As we approach the summer solstice on Friday, which marks the official start of summer, the pattern is shifting. Warmer temperatures and a more active storm pattern are setting the stage for what looks like a much stormier stretch of weather.

Wednesday’s setup will feature an environment that becomes increasingly favourable for storm development through the day. The main focus will be across Southwestern Ontario and into parts of the Golden Horseshoe during the afternoon and evening hours.

While the storms will likely start off isolated and scattered, they are likely to move quite slowly. This raises the potential for localized flooding, especially in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall from training storms.

A few storms could also produce near-severe wind gusts and small hail, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening. While not every area will be affected, those that are could see some very heavy rainfall over a short period of time.

The greater concern comes later in the day for Deep Southwestern Ontario, where a more potent setup could take shape.

Storms are expected to develop over Michigan during the afternoon and early evening. As these storms intensify, they may track eastward and cross into Ontario during the evening. Areas such as Windsor, Chatham, and Sarnia could be in the path of these stronger cells.

These storms will be moving into a more unstable environment that could support damaging wind gusts, quarter-sized hail, and potentially even an isolated tornado.

While confidence in storm development across the border is high, the extent of the severe threat in Ontario will depend heavily on the exact timing of when those storms cross into the province.

**ESTIMATED AIR TEMPERATURE** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Before the storms arrive, temperatures will be on the rise across much of Southern Ontario. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 20s across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe by early afternoon.

Central and Eastern Ontario will be a bit cooler, with highs ranging from the low to mid-20s. The Ottawa Valley could end up a touch warmer than the surrounding areas.

This heat and humidity will act as fuel for thunderstorm development, especially around Lake Huron and into areas near Lake Simcoe by the afternoon. Models vary on how widespread storm activity will be, with some showing scattered pop-up storms and others hinting at a more organized cluster.

Either way, any storms that do develop will be slow-moving, and locations underneath these cells could see multiple rounds of rainfall. That’s where the flood threat becomes more concerning, especially in urban areas that are more prone to flash flooding.

For much of the region, flooding will remain the primary concern. However, a few stronger storms could bring near-severe wind gusts and hail up to nickel size.

By the evening, our attention will turn stateside, where strong to severe storms are expected to organize over Michigan.

These storms are forecast to cross into Deep Southwestern Ontario sometime during the evening. The atmospheric setup in that region will support damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado.

Again, the timing will be critical. If these storms arrive before sunset, they’ll have access to better instability and surface heating, making them more capable of becoming severe. However, if they hold off until later in the night, the lack of daylight heating could limit their intensity.

Models are currently showing a narrow window between 6 and 9 PM where the tornado potential could materialize, particularly around Windsor, Leamington, and Chatham. This will depend on how quickly storms move eastward from Michigan and whether they interact with the more favourable environment before it begins to weaken.

Once the sun sets, the tornado threat should diminish quickly, though some thunderstorm activity may continue through the night into early Thursday morning.

While a few non-severe thunderstorms may linger overnight, the severe threat will likely taper off before midnight.

As it stands, the highest risk for severe weather on Wednesday will be focused on Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, and Sarnia, with the window for impactful storms likely between 3 PM and midnight.

We’ve placed this region under a Level 2 (Widespread) risk due to the potential for damaging wind gusts and one or two tornadoes. Up to quarter-sized hail and locally up ot 50-100mm of rain is also possible.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe, we’ve gone with a Level 1 (Isolated) risk.

This lower tier is mainly for flooding concerns, as slow-moving storms could drop significant rainfall over the same areas during the afternoon and early evening.

Some locations could also see isolated severe wind gusts, nickel-sized hail, and a very low tornado risk (confined mainly to parts of Southwestern Ontario).

June 17, 2025

Environment Canada Forecasting Severe Storm Risk Wednesday for Parts of the Prairies with Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and Flooding Threat

June 17, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

***Environment canada Forecast for Wednesday, June 18th issued Tuesday afternoon***

Environment Canada has issued its preliminary Thunderstorm Outlook for tomorrow afternoon, forecasting a Moderate threat across different parts of the Prairies. These storms will be triggered by a cold front associated with a low pressure system that will sink southward through the Prairies from the Arctic over the course of the day.

Central and Southern Manitoba and into Southeast and East Central Saskatchewan comprise the “A” area, covering from Regina eastward through Manitoba to the Ontario border. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting that severe thunderstorms could bring up wind gusts up to 90km/h, hail as large as toonies, and 20-30mm of heavy rain.

To the west, area “B” covers Southwest and West Central Saskatchewan. In this region, Environment Canada is forecasting weaker storms here than to the east, with the main risks being wind gusts of 70-90km/h and up to nickel-sized hail.

The strongest severe weather threat in this forecast is in area “D”, located in Central and Southern Alberta. The main risks from the storms in this region, according to Environment, are wind gusts up to 110km/h, hail as large as billiards balls, and 25-50mm of heavy rain.

Surrounding these three main areas with Moderate threats is area “C” with Minor threat. Environment Canada is forecasting that this large area could see storms that have wind gusts up to 70km/h and pea-sized hail.

June 17, 2025

Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Across Alberta & Saskatchewan on Tuesday Could Bring Timbit-Sized Hail and Damaging Gusts Over 100km/h

June 17, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

There is a widespread threat of severe thunderstorms in both Alberta and Saskatchewan today that are expected to be stronger than yesterday’s scattered pop-up storms.

The storms are expected to develop early this afternoon, around 12-2pm, across both Central and Northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as through the Foothills. The storms in the northern regions of both provinces should stay sub-severe, but the environment to the south of Edmonton and North Battleford/Saskatoon will be much more conducive to the storms surpassing the threshold of becoming severe.

These thunderstorms will start off as individual cells, but look to become more organized into multicellular clusters as they strengthen, travelling eastward and southeastward across Alberta and Saskatchewan through the afternoon and into the evening. However, it is possible that the odd storm could develop into an isolated supercell. The thunderstorms in this region will be capable of producing large hail, up to the size of a Timbit, as well as strong wind gusts approaching 100km/h and heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding.

There will be an additional area of severe thunderstorm development beginning in Southeastern Alberta in the early to mid afternoon, in the 1-3pm time-frame, which will cross into Southwestern Saskatchewan by 3-5pm. These storms are also expected to become larger multicellular clusters, which could produce some slightly smaller, nickel-sized hail and heavy rain, but the greatest concern will be widespread damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

The greatest wind threat is expected to occur in Southwestern Saskatchewan, through Maple Creek, Shaunavon, and Swift Current, from the late afternoon and into the evening. The intense winds could reach as far east as Moose Jaw and Regina after 10pm, though, as the storms continue tracking eastward. There is some uncertainty with this as storms across both Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to lose intensity after sunset and they could be sub-severe by the time they reach the Regina area. Nevertheless, we have extended our Slight risk eastward to cover this possibility.

The chance of a tornado developing from today’s storms is low, but as usual, it can not be completely ruled out with severe thunderstorms.

June 16, 2025

Possibility for Severe Weather Continues for Alberta with Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Bringing Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, and Hail on Monday

June 16, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Our stretch of active weather continues today with the risk of some isolated severe storms this afternoon and evening across Alberta. We are not looking at a situation where storms are large and widespread, but rather, a large area could see the odd pop-up thunderstorm today.

The storms are expected to develop early this afternoon, around 12-2pm, in Central and parts of Northern Alberta, mostly from Edmonton and northward. The likelihood of development increases eastward and a greater number of small storms are expected in the eastern half of the region.

The severe threat diminishes to the north of Slave Lake and Lac La Biche, so those northward of these areas can expect non-severe thunderstorms or heavy rain showers throughout the day. The threat also diminishes later into the evening so severe thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening will eventually become sub-severe as they track southeastward.

A bit later in the afternoon, beginning around 3-5pm, additional isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop east of the Rockies. These storms are also expected to be isolated as they progress eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. They should lose a majority of their energy later in the evening, leading to some scattered showers continuing in some parts of Central and Southern Alberta overnight.

The thunderstorms today, while likely becoming severe, are not anticipated to be as severe as the storms we’ve seen in Alberta over the past couple of days. Nonetheless, these severe storms will have the potential to deliver heavy downpours with localized flooding, strong wind gusts of up to 90km/h, and fairly large hail which could be as large as your standard Timbit. The environment does not appear to be conducive to the development of funnel clouds or tornadoes today, but a touch down can never be completely ruled out with severe weather.

June 13, 2025

Stronger Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Friday in Alberta & Saskatchewan Which Could Bring Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and Possibly a Tornado

June 13, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

While yesterday’s storms didn’t quite cross the threshold of becoming severe, the chances for severe thunderstorms are much greater for today, as a low pressure system moves through Central Alberta. Areas north of the low, into Northern Alberta, can expect widespread rain today as the system tracks eastward, with up to 20mm falling, and an additional 20mm is possible on the backside of the system through the day tomorrow. Around the low and southward, however, severe thunderstorms are expected to dominate the afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight hours.

Isolated thunderstorms could start to develop as early as the noon hour, but the bulk of the storms are anticipated to begin in the mid-afternoon, around 2-3pm, and continue into the evening across Central and Southern Alberta as the low and its associated warm front cross through the region. The storms triggered by this front are expected to be isolated, with the environment favourable for the development of supercells, so the activity won’t be as widespread as seen yesterday.

A bit later in the afternoon, there is also a slightly higher chance that storms in Southeastern Alberta could become severe as they cross into Saskatchewan. This will be dependent on the southerly winds clearing wildfire smoke out of the area so that daytime heating can be maximized ahead of the warm front. Storm activity could continue overnight through parts of Saskatchewan, but they are expected to quickly lose strength later in the evening so any remaining storms should be sub-severe.

Today’s severe thunderstorms could bring damaging wind gusts up to, and possibly exceeding, 100km/h, along with heavy downpours and hail as large as ping pong balls. In the East-Central region of Alberta, from Edmonton towards Lloydminster and southward to almost Red Deer, the environment will also be favourable for the development of funnel clouds and there is a slight chance of a tornado forming.

***Fire danger map for June 12th produced by the government of Alberta***

There has been a major decline in the fire hazard across most of Central and Southern Alberta with widespread rain over the past couple of days. That trend will continue into parts of Northern Alberta with the significant rain that is expected to fall to the north and on the backside of the low pressure system that will track across the province today.

The storms that could to move into Southwestern Saskatchewan later today may also start to lead to a downtrend in the fire danger in that area. We could possibly see this trend continue tomorrow as the system is expected to cross through Saskatchewan, bringing additional thunderstorm activity to the southern half of the province and widespread rain to the north of the low.

June 12, 2025

Isolated Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Thursday with Damaging Wind Gusts and Hail Possible

June 12, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

After an extended period of dry conditions across Southern Alberta, aside from the odd pop-up shower or non-severe thunderstorm, we’re finally seeing that pattern change. More widespread rain finally returned to the region yesterday, which has continued into this morning. This afternoon, we can also expect to see the return of severe thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to kick off in the early afternoon, around 12-2pm, in the Foothills and northward, to the east of the Rockies. These storms will start off as isolated cells, but they could merge into larger clusters of storms as they gradually track northeastward through the afternoon.

Additional storms will follow in the evening, extending further south towards the US border. These storms could maintain their strength, if conditions remain favourable, as they end up tracking eastward across Southern Alberta overnight and into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, the region could just experience some moderate to heavy rainfall instead.

The greatest thunderstorm risk will be in the Southwest, stretching from Calgary southward to the US border and east through Taber. This region could see damaging wind gusts of up to 100km/h and large nickel to quarter-sized hail, along with torrential downpours. At this point, the threat of a tornado appears to be unlikely, but it can not be completely ruled out.

With the return of some rain, we’re also seeing a downtrend in the fire danger in Central and Southern Alberta. The arrival of more rain today, despite the presence of some lightning, will likely lead a continued decrease in the fire danger in Southern Alberta. The lightning could still spark additional fires in areas where the fire danger remains elevated so it’s important to watch for any new fire activity and to report it immediately if you see smoke.

June 08, 2025

Southern Ontario Faces Another Round of Wildfire Smoke and Unhealthy Air This Week

June 08, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Southern Ontario continues to deal with lingering wildfire smoke from fires burning across the Prairies and Northern Ontario. While the thickest smoke has cleared out of the region for now, Thursday and Friday brought some of the worst air quality readings we've seen since at least 2023, with several areas reaching unhealthy levels.

As of Sunday evening, there’s still some smoke in the atmosphere - mainly in the upper levels, but we are seeing minor surface-level impacts. This is resulting in reduced air quality in certain parts of the province, although it’s not nearly as bad as it was a few days ago.

Air quality readings are sitting above 100 in parts of Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and sections of Northern Ontario. That level falls into the “unhealthy for sensitive groups” category, which includes people with asthma, respiratory conditions, young children, and older adults.

If you’re part of a sensitive group, it’s a good idea to limit your time outdoors, keep your windows closed, and consider wearing a well-fitting N95 mask when you have to go outside. These masks can help reduce exposure to the fine particulate matter found in wildfire smoke.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, AQI readings are in the 50 to 100 range, which is considered moderate. That’s not a big concern for healthy individuals, but anyone who is sensitive to air pollution may want to avoid heavy outdoor activities like running or biking.

You might also notice a faint smoky smell in the air, but it's not expected to be too strong. Still, it’s a reminder that there’s pollution present, even if the skies don’t look especially hazy.

**UPPER LEVEL SMOKE CONCENTRATION** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The smoke is expected to stick around overnight and into Monday morning, especially in the lower levels of the atmosphere. By Monday afternoon, we should begin to see some clearing closer to the surface, with air quality likely improving through the day.

Unfortunately, that improvement probably won’t last long. The latest forecast models show another plume of upper-level smoke moving into the region by late Monday. While these models currently suggest limited smoke near the surface, we’ve seen before that they often underestimate how much smoke actually mixes down. So we can’t rule out more air quality issues as the week goes on.

Looking ahead, additional wildfire smoke is a strong possibility, especially as fires continue to grow rapidly across Northwestern Ontario. One major concern right now is the fire near Sandy Lake First Nation, which has prompted a full evacuation of the community. That fire is expected to grow further and could become a major source of smoke for Southern Ontario in the days ahead.

Because of its closer proximity compared to fires in Western Canada, smoke from this fire has a better chance of settling closer to the ground by the time it reaches our region. That means more noticeable impacts, even for those outside of sensitive groups.

Some good news: recent rainfall has helped reduce the fire danger in parts of Ontario, Manitoba, and Northern Saskatchewan—regions that have been hit hard by wildfires over the past couple of weeks. This rain may help slow fire growth and support containment efforts, especially in areas where communities are at risk.

However, the same can’t be said for British Columbia, Alberta, and Southern Saskatchewan. These areas are still facing high to extreme fire danger levels, with dry conditions and tough firefighting environments.

Quebec is also showing some concerning signs, with several pockets of high to extreme fire risk. If wildfires do ignite there, it could add yet another smoke source for Southern Ontario in the coming days.

June 06, 2025

Much Needed Rainfall is Finally on its Way for Most of Saskatchewan This Weekend

June 06, 2025/ Adam Skinner

*Model image showing total rain from friday morning until monday morning, courtesy of weatherbell*

Good news Saskatchewan: there's finally rain in the forecast! The bad news is that not everyone will see the rain and strong winds could still be an issue.

To start, we've already seen some scattered showers across Northern Saskatchewan this morning. The rain is expected to continue through the day and into tomorrow, with some pushing into Central Saskatchewan this evening.

This precipitation will be associated with non-severe thunderstorms, like we've seen for most of the week, which could bring strong wind gusts up to 70km/h and possibly small hail. Luckily though, these storms will finally bring a decent amount of precipitation.

*Environment Canada forecast for friday afternoon*

Early tomorrow morning, light rain will cross through Southern Saskatchewan. Then, in the afternoon, the rain from the north will push southeastward as it wraps around a low pressure system moving south from the Territories.

The rain is expected to fall in in Eastern Saskatchewan through Sunday morning and afternoon, dissipating in the evening and leading to much less rainfall in the Southwest than in the rest of the province. Aside from this region, widespread 10-50mm is expected by the end of Sunday. Luckily, the areas with the worst fires can expect a decent amount of rain this weekend.

Unfortunately, strong wind gusts up to 70km/h are expected to persist through the weekend and this could still pose a challenge for firefighting efforts despite the precipitation and cooler temperatures.

June 04, 2025

Warm Temperatures Briefly Return With Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Southern Ontario Wednesday

June 04, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While much of late May across Southern Ontario was dominated by unseasonably cool weather, the start of June is shaping up to be a very different story. Over the past few days, temperatures have rebounded to near-seasonal levels across the region, and that’s just a preview of what’s ahead. But enjoy it while you can because a noticeable cool down is expected later this week.

This early June heat has also arrived with a layer of upper-level smoke drifting in from wildfires burning across Western Canada. This smoke has caused a light haze in the sky, giving the air a faint smoky smell, dimming the sun, and slightly suppressing daytime temperatures compared to what we would have seen under clear skies.

The good news is that much of this smoke is expected to clear out across Southern Ontario overnight into early Wednesday morning. While some lingering smoke may remain high up in the atmosphere, it shouldn’t be as thick or widespread as what we’ve seen over the past 36 hours.

With clearer skies, daytime heating will be more effective, giving temperatures a better shot at reaching their full potential. On Wednesday, we’re expecting highs to climb into the upper 20s and possibly even low 30s in some spots.

A cold front sweeping across the province late Wednesday will bring a shift in the pattern, knocking temperatures back below seasonal for the latter half of the week. This front is also expected to trigger a line of thunderstorms, some of which may be marginally severe.

Primary threats include damaging wind gusts up to 90 km/h, pockets of quarter-sized hail, and localized flooding from slow-moving storms. There is also a very low risk of an isolated tornado, but given the weak storm environment, this threat is quite uncertain and likely limited.

Much of Wednesday will start off hot and hazy, especially across Southern Ontario. Temperatures will rapidly climb into the upper 20s by early afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. In some areas, particularly Deep Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and the Ottawa Valley, temperatures could push into the low 30s.

That said, locations along the immediate shorelines of the Great Lakes will likely remain a few degrees cooler due to the lake breeze. These areas, including communities along Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Lake Huron, and Georgian Bay, should see highs closer to the low to mid-20s.

As the cold front begins moving in from the northwest, starting around 2 to 4 PM near the Bruce Peninsula and the North Bay and Parry Sound region, we’ll see an almost instant temperature drop. It could fall by as much as 10 to 15 degrees within a couple of hours. The front will then gradually push southeast through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening hours.

As the temperatures rise, it’s crucial to keep our beloved pets safe and comfortable. Here are some essential tips to ensure your furry friends stay cool this summer:

🚗 Never Leave in Cars: Even with windows cracked, the temperature inside a car can rise dramatically in just a few minutes. On a 24°C day, the temperature inside a parked car can soar to 38°C in just 10 minutes. In 30 minutes, it can reach 49°C! Leaving your pet in a car can be deadly, so never leave them unattended.

If you see a pet left unattended in a car in Ontario:

Look for the Owner: Note the car's make, model, and license plate number. Go to nearby businesses to see if you can find the owner.
Call for Help: If you cannot find the owner, call your local animal control or police. You can call the OSPCA at 1-833-9-ANIMAL (264625). If you believe the animal is in immediate distress, call 911 immediately.
Stay with the Pet: Remain with the pet until help arrives.

🏡 Shade & Shelter: Make sure your pets have access to shaded areas to avoid direct sunlight. A cool, sheltered spot can make a big difference.

💧 Hydration is Key: Always provide fresh water for your pets. Dehydration can set in quickly, so keep their water bowl filled and in a shaded area.

🐕 Limit Exercise: Avoid walking your pets during the hottest parts of the day. Early morning or late evening walks are best to prevent overheating.

🐾 Paw Protection: Hot pavement can burn your pet's paws. Walk them on grass whenever possible, or use protective booties to shield their feet.

⚠️ Watch for Signs of Overheating: Symptoms include excessive panting, drooling, and lethargy. If you notice these signs, move your pet to a cooler area immediately and provide water.

Although the smoke won’t be nearly as thick as what we experienced Monday and Tuesday, some light to moderate upper-level smoke may still linger on Wednesday. Forecast models suggest the highest concentrations will likely be around the Golden Horseshoe, including the Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton, and the Niagara region.

There may still be a faint smoky smell in the air at times, but surface-level smoke isn’t expected to be heavy enough to significantly impact air quality. What it could do, however, is hold temperatures back by a couple of degrees in some spots since the sunlight won’t be able to fully break through the smoke layer.

By Thursday, most of this smoke should clear out completely. That said, some models are hinting at another round of wildfire smoke pushing into the region by late this week or into the weekend.

Along with cooler temperatures, the advancing cold front will bring the potential for thunderstorms across Southern Ontario. Current data suggests that a line of storms will begin forming early Wednesday afternoon, stretching from North Bay down into parts of Michigan.

As this front continues to track southeastward, conditions will become more favourable for some of these storms to become locally severe. Isolated threats include damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours. The highest risk zone appears to be in a corridor running from Deep Southwestern Ontario through Kitchener and Waterloo, into the Lake Simcoe region, and extending northeast into the Algonquin Park area.

The timing for the strongest activity looks to fall between 3 PM and 6 PM, though it could stretch a bit later, especially in areas near the border. Some model runs even show a rogue thunderstorm crossing into the Windsor or Sarnia area from Michigan during the evening hours.

The overall tornado threat remains low due to the weak storm environment and expected messy storm mode, but it is never zero. Sometimes we do see surprise spin-up tornadoes in Ontario, especially where lake breezes collide and enhance low-level rotation.

After sunset, the severe risk should wind down fairly quickly. However, a few non-severe thunderstorms may continue into the late evening and overnight as the front moves across the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario.

June 03, 2025

💨 WINDY WEDNESDAY: Environment Canada Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms With 90km/h Wind Gusts, Toonie Sized Hail & 50mm Flooding

June 03, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada has released its latest Thunderstorm Outlook forecasting a “moderate” (2 out of 4) risk for severe thunderstorms across much of Southern Ontario on Wednesday, June 4th, 2025. They mention the potential for 90km/h damaging wind gusts, up to toonie size hail (2-3cm) and 50mm of rainfall that could bring isolated flooding. Timing looks to be from the afternoon to the evening for the strongest storms. Additionally, they mention a “minor” risk (1 out of 4) for thunderstorm activity on Thursday. We’ll break it down below.

💨 Windy Wednesday

Wednesday Morning:

The first storms are expected to arrive overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. These will mainly affecting portions of northeastern Ontario. This includes areas north of Sault Ste. Marie, stretching around Timmins and Moosonee towards the Quebec border and regions north of Lake Superior. Expect non-severe thunderstorms, with the main concern being isolated lightning strikes. While widespread heavy rain isn't the primary threat here, local rainfall amounts could reach up to 30 mm, with peak hourly rates around 15 mm. Environment Canada indicates a moderate confidence level for these initial storms.

Wednesday Afternoon and Evening:

The afternoon and evening will bring a risk for severe thunderstorms across much of Southern Ontario. This area could experience isolated storms capable of producing a combination of strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain. Impacts could include damage to plants and crops, and loose objects could be tossed around by the gusty winds. There's also a risk of damage to weaker structures, broken tree branches and even downed trees. With the heavy rain, possible flash flooding and water pooling on roads are also concerns. Rainfall in these stronger storms could locally total up to 50mm, with intense peak hourly rates reaching up to 30mm. It's important to note that areas experiencing several rounds of thunderstorms have the strongest chance of seeing isolated flooding.

Interestingly, Environment Canada adds a caveat for these Southern Ontario storms: while some thunderstorms may indeed produce very gusty winds, hail, and torrential downpours, there's a possibility that smoke aloft might hinder their overall strength. This makes Environment Canada’s confidence of how severe these storms will become lower than normal for this type of setup, despite the potential for “moderate” to “high” impacts.

⛈️ Thunder Thursday

Thursday:

The likelihood of thunderstorms continues into Thursday across many parts of northern, far northern, and southern Ontario including areas like Windsor, London, Toronto, Hamilton, etc. Non-severe thunderstorms remain possible. Once again, isolated lightning strikes will be the main concern with local rainfall generally expected to be less than 15 mm. Environment Canada has moderate confidence in these storms developing.

The focus Thursday shifts towards Eastern Ontario, highlighted as 'Area A' on the forecast map above. This area includes Ottawa, Cornwall, Perth, Brockville and areas east of Kingston. Stronger thunderstorms are possible, bringing hazards of strong winds and hail. If these storms strengthen as expected, they could damage plants and crops and toss loose objects. Environment Canada suggests these storms could produce wind gusts from 70-90 km/h and hail up to 2 cm (nickel size). Additionally, local rainfall amounts are expected to be up to 15 mm.

🔎 Staying Safe and Prepared

As we move into summer and a more active weather pattern, it’s critical to stay informed! To keep a close eye on our latest forecasts and get notified of any alerts, download our free app Instant Weather, available on Apple and Android devices.

Remember the golden rule of lightning safety: "When thunder roars, go indoors!" as there is no safe place outside during a thunderstorm. Ahead of the storms, particularly on Wednesday afternoon and evening in Southern Ontario and throughout Thursday in Eastern Ontario, take a moment to secure any loose outdoor items before the storms arrive. Things like patio furniture, trampolines, and garbage cans can become projectiles in strong winds.

If you're planning to be on the roads, be prepared for challenging driving conditions such as sudden downpours, significantly reduced visibility, and the possibility of water pooling on roadways, especially in areas expecting heavier rainfall.

Stay safe everyone and if it’s safe to do so, share your reports with half a million community members on our Facebook group called Ontario Storm Reports!

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them to help inform our communities.

June 01, 2025

Two EF1 Tornadoes Confirmed Northeast of Edmonton From Monday, May 26th, 2025

June 01, 2025/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE VERSION***

Two EF1 tornadoes have been confirmed in Alberta from May 26th, 2025 by the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP). Thankfully, there were no injuries with these two tornadoes. The strongest of the two was on the ground for an impressive 21.2km and had estimated wind speeds of 175km/h. The two tornadoes touched down near Lac la Biche and left behind lengthy, narrow paths of damage, including a partially removed roof from a home and numerous snapped and uprooted trees.

Investigators from the NTP conducted thorough ground and drone surveys on May 28th and noted that Alannah and Patricia from our own Instant Weather team helped get their team deployed quickly. The NTP wrote: “Thanks to Alannah and Patricia at Instant Weather for their initial (late-night) alert to the damage, allowing us to get our team out faster!” We at IW are grateful that we were able to help NTP with their investigation and super thankful that no one was injured in these two tornadoes. The NTP meticulously documented the aftermath and their findings paint a clear picture of the two separate twisters that tore through the region.

The Atmore Twister – A Lengthy Path of Damage

The first tornado, designated the "Atmore" event, began its destructive journey at approximately 7:00 PM MDT (0100 UTC) on May 26th.

Final EF-Scale Rating: EF1

Estimated Max. Wind Speed: 175 km/h

Track Length: A substantial 21.2 km

Max. Path Width: 300 m

Motion: From the Southwest (approx. 220 degrees)

This twister carved a significant path, causing notable damage to homes near Atmore and Rossian (north of Plamondon). Reports detailed structural impacts and the NTP survey confirmed these, along with extensive tree damage. Satellite imagery review also highlighted the visible tree damage along its long, narrow track. Luckily, despite the substantial property damage, no injuries were reported.

The Avenir Tornado – A Shorter, Wider Impact

Just 25 minutes after the Atmore tornado began, a second EF1, named the "Avenir" event, touched down further to the northeast at approximately 7:25 PM MDT (0125 UTC).

Final EF-Scale Rating: EF1
Estimated Max. Wind Speed: 150 km/h
Track Length: 6.43 km
Max. Path Width: A slightly wider 370 m
Motion: From the South-Southwest (approx. 205 degrees)

While shorter in track length, the Avenir tornado left a clear signature, primarily impacting forested areas near the community of Avenir. Satellite imagery initially revealed its narrow path of tree damage, which was later confirmed and documented by the NTP's ground and drone survey. As with the Atmore event, no injuries were reported in connection with this tornado.

Understanding the Findings

The Northern Tornadoes Project plays a crucial role in confirming, classifying and analyzing tornado damage across Canada. Their use of satellite imagery, followed by on-the-ground surveys with drones, allows for precise classification and understanding of these powerful weather phenomena.

These EF1 tornadoes, with wind speeds reaching up to 175 km/h, serve as a reminder of the potential for severe weather in Alberta. While not the most powerful on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale, they are certainly capable of causing significant localized damage, as evidenced by the events near Lac la Biche.

Find out more & get notified

You can view precise tracks of these tornadoes and explore other Canadian tornado and downburst events on the interactive NTP Dashboard.
Always have a plan for severe weather and download our free app Instant Weather to get notified of any alerts from Environment Canada or any custom updates from the IW team regarding rotation, funnel cloud reports, etc.

May 31, 2025

Forty Years Since Black Friday: Looking Back at the Historic Tornado Outbreak and the Barrie F4 From May 31st 1985

May 31, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

*The damaged ‘welcome to Barrie’ sign following the f4 tornado that hit may 31st, 1985, courtesy of the Barrie Banner.*

On this day in 1985, Southern Ontario experienced violent thunderstorms which produced an outbreak of 14 tornadoes, part of a larger outbreak of 44 tornadoes that also impacted Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. This stands as the third largest tornado outbreak in Canadian history and one of the tornadoes from that day was the 7th deadliest on record in Canada.

A total of 88 people lost their lives that day; 8 were in Barrie, two were in Grand Valley, two were in Tottenham, and the rest of the fatalities occurred in the US. Hundreds of people were left homeless across Southern Ontario and total damage from the 14 tornadoes is estimated at well over $100 million (in 1985 dollars).

It was all over in six hours and now, May 31st, 1985 is referred to as Black Friday.

*The daily weather map from the morning of may 31st, 1985, Courtesy of* *the National Weather Service*.

Meteorological Background

The day began with a low pressure system settled over Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin and an associated cold front stretching over Lake Superior and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, then southward through Lake Michigan and into the Midwest. This system drew in warm, moist air from the Gulf and cool, dry air from the north. It was being driven by a strong upper-level jet stream so as the cold front rapidly swept eastward through the Gulf air mass, it triggered explosive development of severe thunderstorms.

The satellite loop below shows how the thunderstorms developed through the afternoon and evening across the region as the cold front swept through.

*The Visible satellite loop from the afternoon of May 31st, 1985 showing the development of thunderstorms, courtesy of* *the National Weather Service*.

Analysis of the upper air charts shows that winds at the 850mb level were 40 knots (74km/h) and at the 300mb level, they were 100 knots (185 km/h). The winds also changed direction with height which meant the atmosphere had plenty of both vertical speed shear and directional shear, which create rotation in thunderstorms and is a crucial ingredient in the formation of tornadoes.

Environment Canada saw this set up and they proactively issued a Severe Weather Watch at 7am, well ahead of the cold front. The storms started to develop over Lake Huron at 1:40pm and quickly intensified into a line of storms by 2:00pm. At 2:25pm, Environment Canada issued its first Severe Weather Warning of the day, which included the reminder that some severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes.

The line of storms continued to develop over the next couple of hours, travelling eastward at up to 70km/h, and the warnings were subsequently expanded. At 3:45pm, severe thunderstorm warnings extended into Simcoe County and then along the west end of Lake Ontario at 4:53pm as the southern end of the line of storms intensified.

The first tornado warning of the day was issued at 5pm, following confirmation of a touchdown near Shelburne, but it was far too late for the communities that were hit the hardest.

*The timing of severe thunderstorm warnings, tornado warnings, and tornado touchdowns from May 31st, 1985, courtesy of Leduc, Jacobson, and Greer.*

*The tracks of thirteen tornadoes from the May 31st, 1985 outbreak with the Grippen Lake Tornado noticeably missing, courtesy of Leduc, Jacobson, and Greer.*

Timeline of Tornado Development

The entire outbreak began in Southern Ontario, with a tornado touching down near Rush Cove in the Bruce Peninsula at approximately 3:00pm. It was rated an F2 and was on the ground for approximately 4km. This tornado is interesting because it was much earlier and well removed from the other tornadoes in this outbreak. The remaining 13 tornadoes can actually be grouped into separate families because there were spawned by the same parent supercells.

As the cold front continued to march eastward through Southern Ontario that afternoon, the thunderstorms and the formation of tornadoes travelled along with it. Following the Rush Cove tornado, there was a lull in tornadic activity until shortly after 4pm. Over the course of the following hour, 7 tornadoes spawned, ranging in intensity from an F1 to two F4 tornadoes.

At 4:10pm, an F2 dropped near Hopeville, northwest of Shelburne and it travelled 17km. Then, at 4:15pm, two separate tornadoes developed: an F3 in Alma, to the northwest Fergus, which was on the ground for 33km, and a devastating F4 which touched down near Arthur. This F4 was on the ground for a staggering 115km, setting the record for the longest tracking tornado ever in Canada, and produced estimated maximum wind gusts in excess of 400km/h. It brought significant damage to both Grand Valley and Tottenham, located 50km to the east. Sadly, two people lost their lives in each of these communities.

*Damage in Grand Valley following the F4 tornado, courtesy of* *the Orangeville Banner*.

Two minutes later, an F2 touched down near Corbetton, to the northwest of Melancthon. This tornado came from the same supercell thunderstorm as the Hopeville tornado, which had formed only seven minutes prior. This tornado was on the ground for 35km, more than double that of its predecessor.

A little over half an hour later, at 4:50pm, an F2 hit the community of Lisle, to the west of Base Borden, which was also spawned from the same supercell as the Hopeville tornado. It was on the ground for 18km and then seven minutes later, the same storm dropped another tornado just east, an F1 near Essa, which was on the ground for only half a kilometre. The final tornado that this storm produced was the most deadly and destructive of the day, the Barrie F4, which will be discussed in more detail below.

When the Grand Valley-Tottenham tornado finally lifted after being on the ground for well over an hour, its parent supercell went on to produce two more tornadoes: an F1 that touched down north of Uxbridge at 5:40pm and was on the ground for 5km, and another F1 that hit Reaboro, southeast of Lindsay, at 6:05pm and was on the ground for 8km.

While the two main supercells to the north continued to produce multiple tornadoes between 4:00pm and 6:00pm, the thunderstorm behind the Alma tornado didn’t produce another until two hours later, when an F2 touched down east of Highway 35 at 6:15pm, which later tore through Ida along its 9km track. Five minutes later, this storm produced an F3 that travelled 14km along the north shore of Rice Lake and then 15 minutes after that, a final F1 touched down that was on the ground for only 1km near Minto, to the north of Trenton.

This marks 13 total tornadoes from this outbreak and this is what the tally stood at for many years. It wasn’t until around 2010, two and a half decades later, when scientists at Environment Canada were compiling a tornado database, that a missing report from the defunct Kingston Weather Office was found. It detailed damage caused by an F1 tornado which touched down around 8:10pm near Grippen Lake, to the northeast of Kingston. It remains unclear as to why this report was never submitted, but the inclusion of this tornado brings the final number of tornadoes in Southern Ontario on Black Friday to fourteen.

One of the few photos known to exist of the rain-wrapped Barrie Tornado, taken by Gary Crawford from HIghway 11 beside the Drive-In Theatre in Guthrie (edge of Oro). Donated to Instant Weather by Mr. Crawford.

The Barrie F4 Tornado

The Barrie tornado was the strongest of the 14 that touched down on Black Friday, with winds estimated at over 400km/h, making it the second F4 tornado of the day.

The tornado was rain-wrapped as it touched down just outside of the city in a reforestation area, where it snapped many trees and permanently bent even more. It was initially 600m wide, carving a significant path as it approached the edge of Barrie.

As it moved northeastward into the city, the tornado levelled an entire block of homes in the Crawford Street and Patterson Road area, then hit an industrial area known as Molson Park. From there, the tornado turned to travel eastward and crossed Highway 400, terrifying many commuters as their vehicles were pelted by intense winds and debris.

After crossing the Highway, the tornado narrowed to roughly 300m wide and it began devastating the Allendale neighbourhood in the south end of Barrie, destroying homes and uprooting mature trees. Once it ploughed through this built up area, the tornado once again began travelling northeastward. It lastly hit a marina on Kempenfelt Bay before moving out over the water, where it finally dissipated. Given that the end of the tornado’s path of destruction concluded over water, the exact length of its track can not be concretely known, but it is estimated that it was on the ground for approximately 15km.

It was all over in a matter of minutes, but the tornado left scars that would take years to heal.

*The initial Draft of the Official survey of the Barrie F4 tornado done by Scott Somerville at Environment Canada, Courtesy of Michael Newark Tornado Digitized Archive by* *the Northern Tornadoes Project*.

Damage & Aftermath

The destruction brought to Barrie was staggering. In a matter of minutes, 155 people were injured, approximately 800 were left homeless, and damage was initially estimated at over $115 million. Sadly, eight residents lost their lives, including four children.

A total of 605 homes were severely damaged and of those, 265 were deemed uninhabitable. In one case, a townhouse complex just east of Highway 400 had its top storey removed and even sections of the main level. Meanwhile, fifteen industrial buildings west of the highway were completely destroyed and many more sustained significant damage. Vehicles were thrown hundreds of metres and 35 sailboats in Kempenfelt Bay completely disappeared.

*Damage in Barrie following the F4 tornado, Courtesy of* *CTV News*.

It took well over a year for the residents of Barrie to rebuild following the F4 tornado and this tornado alone ended up causing $130 million ($334 million in 2025 dollars) in damage. This does not even cover the physical and mental damage experienced by the residents, some of which can never be repaired.

The City of Barrie chose to commemorate this tragic event with two plaques: one for those who lost their lives and one for those who helped the community rebuild.

Sources:

Harries, K. (Ed.). (1985). Ontario tornado: May 31, 1985. C.F. Boone.

Leduc, M., Jacobson, O., and Greer, B. (1986). The “Black Friday” tornado outbreak in Ontario: A forecaster’s view of the events of May 31, 1985. Chinook, 8(1), 13-18.

Witten, D. E. (1985). May 31, 1985: A deadly tornado outbreak. Weatherwise 38(4), 193-198. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1985.9933314

https://www.cbc.ca/archives/the-tornadoes-that-tore-a-deadly-path-of-destruction-in-ontario-in-1985-1.5575434

https://www.ctvnews.ca/barrie/article/marking-37-years-since-devastating-ontario-tornadoes/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/barrie/article/may-31-1985-the-day-the-sky-unleashed-fury-on-central-ontario/

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/may-31-1985-outbreak-how-a-lost-14th-tornado-was-found

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/this-day-in-weather-history-may-31-1985-the-barrie-grandvalley-tottenham-tornadoes

https://www.uwo.ca/ntp/faqs/what_are_canadas_worst_tornadoes.html

https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_19850531_85outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/TornadoOutbreak_May311985

Special thanks to Dr. David Sills at the Northern Tornadoes Project for his help in answering some inquiries when writing this article.

May 29, 2025

Slight Risk for Isolated Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday with 100km/h Wind Gusts, 3cm Hail & Isolated Flooding Possible

May 29, 2025/ Adam Skinner

We’re closely monitoring a slight risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of central Alberta. Areas such as Edmonton, Edson, Red Deer, Whitecourt, Leduc, Camrose, Rocky Mountain House, Drayton Valley, High Prairie, Slave Lake, Lac la Biche, Westlock, Hinton, Olds and surrounding communities may see these storms. However, as they’ll be isolated, most areas will not receive any precipitation at all.

Damaging wind gusts of 80-100km/h, 3cm hail and isolated flooding up to 50mm are the main risks for these storms. Of course, frequent lightning and torrential rain are also expected for those who are affected by these storms.

The overall tornado risk is low so chances of a spin-up are unlikely. However, we all know that stranger things have happen so definitely make sure to have our free app Instant Weather to get notified of any and all alerts from Environment Canada for your area.

Environment Canada has also issued Severe Thunderstorm Watches for the region, shown below.

Environment Canada writes:

”Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening that may be capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail.

Damage to roofs, fences, branches or soft shelters is possible. When thunder roars, go indoors! Lightning kills and injures canadians every year.

Severe thunderstorm watches are issued when conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging hail, wind or rain.”

In addition to the severe thunderstorm risk, the Fire Danger map for Alberta shown below is very concerning as almost all areas of Alberta are under “Extreme” fire danger.

***Fire danger map for may 29th produced by the government of Alberta***

With the expected lightning, warmer temperatures and drier conditions, it’s very possible we could see new wildfires ignited from these storms today. Please stay safe folks and we’ll post more updates when available.

May 26, 2025

Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Monday as a Cold Front Advances Through Alberta

May 26, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The past week was fairly quiet, as far as active weather is concerned, with the odd pop-up thunderstorm surpassing the severe threshold and a couple of funnel cloud reports. This week, however, is slated to start off with a bang as a cold front will move into Alberta later this afternoon, stretching the length of the province and triggering the development of thunderstorms over a widespread area.

We’ve already seen some scattered showers across parts of Central and Northern Alberta today, but the severe threat won’t begin until this afternoon, around 2-4pm. These will be fast-moving storms that will quickly develop and organize into a north-south line along the cold front as it crosses the province through the afternoon and evening. Storm activity will rapidly diminish as we get later into the evening, but isolated storms could continue until closer to midnight, if conditions remain favourable.

The greatest thunderstorm risk will stretch from Calgary northward up to Fort McMurray, highlighted in yellow on our map. This large region could see damaging wind gusts of up to 100km/h and large nickel to quarter-sized hail, along with torrential downpours. At this point, the threat of a tornado appears to be unlikely, but it can not be completely ruled out.

***Fire danger map for may 26th produced by the government of Alberta***

The amount of lightning associated with today’s storms could also be a concern. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions have elevated the wildfire risk over the past week and has led to High to Extreme Wildfire Danger across the entire province. Significant amounts of lightning, despite the presence of precipitation, could easily spark additional fires given these conditions.

May 21, 2025

On This Day: The Port Huron/Sarnia F4 Tornado of 1953

May 21, 2025/ Guest User

The front page of the times herald from Port Huron, Michigan from Saturday, May 23rd, 1953.

Michigan, USA

Monday, May 18th, 1953 – A squall line from the north brought cold, damp weather to Oakland County, MI, for over three days. Three days later, on Thursday, May 21st, 1953, severe thunderstorms developed, pushing cold air eastward across Michigan, while a warm front from the south advanced, delivering humid temperatures to St. Clair County. The protracted battle between cooler temperatures and warm, moist air from the south reached its climax over Smiths Creek, Michigan at 3:30pm.

By 4:21pm, local radio stations were receiving reports from the Yale area of severe weather conditions, including heavy winds, rain mixed with hail, and darkening skies. As the winds strengthened to 40MPH, a funnel cloud 200 yards wide began to form. At the WTTH Radio Broadcast Centre in Michigan, host Robin Busse issued an urgent warning to residents, notifying them of a tornado touchdown in Smiths Creek, Michigan and advising them to seek shelter immediately in their basements. Before the signal was lost, Robin Busse made a final plea, exclaiming “OH MY… I’VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS! PLEASE SEEK SHELTER! HEAD TO YOUR BASEMENTS!” as the wind howled in the background.

The tornado that struck Smiths Creek, Michigan, then entered Port Huron, Michigan, crossing a Lumber Yard on Military Street, and toppling railroad cars along its path before crossing over the St. Clair River. Ralph Polovich, who was a Times Herald Photographer pulled over on Water Street in Port Huron, Michigan to snap a picture of a ‘’White Water Spout’’ as it crossed the river into Sarnia.

Sarnia, Ontario

May 21st, 1953 started off as any other day; a toasty 29 degrees Celsius at 10:24am. By 12:45pm, the temperature rose to 31 degrees Celsius and up to 35 degrees Celsius by 4:25pm. The thunderstorm that led to the tornado dumped golf ball/baseball-sized hail on Sarnia – the hail, which is credited towards saving lives, cleared the streets of motorists and pedestrians as shelter had been found before the tornado struck.

Another radio station (CHOK), located downtown at 148 Front Street North, was broadcasting music and weather updates to the residents of Sarnia. Karl Monk, who served as the stations manager, started his shift at 4pm. ‘’We got some pretty wild weather coming from the West; raining like cats and dogs’’. “Ladies and gentlemen, I just received a note that a tornado has touched down just west of Port Huron. This storm is tracking eastward towards the St. Clair River and has the capabilities to generate a tornado in the Sarnia Lambton Area’’ he announced.

By 5:45pm the tornado hit South of Sarnia Harbor, where it grew in size to 980 yards wide. Moving to the northeast, the tornado hit the downtown area directly, damaging nearly 100 commercial buildings along Front Street and Christina Street.

The Imperial Theatre’s renowned auditorium in Sarnia, suffered a catastrophic collapse. At least 150 homes were damaged, and prior to exiting Sarnia, the tornado veered northeast an began to dissipate as its path narrowed to just 33 yards in width. CHOK maintained continuous coverage throughout the storm, earning recognition for its tireless warnings to Port Huron and Sarnia residents regarding the impending tornado. Much like Robin Busse, Karl Monk was subsequently credited with saving lives through his timely warnings to the public.

the View through the collapsed dome of the Imperial Theatre, Courtesy of the Sarnia Historical Society.

Interesting Facts:

Most residents initially believed that an explosion had occurred at the Imperial Oil Refinery in Sarnia. Unbeknownst to them, this was the sound of the actual tornado on the ground.
The tornado was believed to have been on the ground for almost 2.5 hours.
When the tornado hit, it caused damages exceeding 17 million dollars, left 500 homeless, and made both countries make changes to the way storm warnings were handled.
Many survivors reported severe damage to their homes, while houses across the street remained unscathed.
The acting Mayor of Sarnia read that the Riot Act would be issued at 11pm that night, which forbade people from going downtown to check out the damage to the area. The area was littered with hazards such as debris, mangled power lines, dead birds and animals, etc. It gave permission for the military to take charge, sending in military personnel from the Ipperwash area, and even calling in the RCMP in to help residents clean up. The National Guard was also called into protect abandoned properties in Port Huron.
Just 3 weeks later, on June 8th, an F5 tornado hit Flint, Michigan at about 8:30pm, touching down by a drive-in theatre and killing 116 residents. Coincidentally, on this day, a dinner was being hosted in Michigan honouring Robin Busse from WTTH for his heroic broadcast just 3 weeks earlier.
Mail from Flint was found in the debris in Sarnia days after the tornado struck.

damage on Brock Street, Courtesy of the Sarnia Historical Society.

One of our Moderators at Instant Weather, Miranda, lives in Sarnia. Her mom was 5 years old and living in Sarnia when the tornado hit. When Miranda asked her mom to describe what it was like, this is what she said:

“My mother, my sister, and myself lived on the corner of Maxwell and Indian Road, 926 Maxwell to be exact. Our house was a small bungalow, with no basement and no place to seek shelter. My mom was outside on a ladder at the time, tending to the property, when she heard the radio broadcaster telling Sarnia to ‘’Seek shelter immediately’’. She yelled for my sister and I, who were playing outside, to get inside right away.

I recall the sky transforming into a greenish-yellow hue, sirens blaring, and the wind beginning to pick up. The heat that had been intense all day, suddenly was met by a drastic drop in temperature. Hail started to fall, roughly the size of a tennis ball. I never seen the tornado, but I did hear what sounded like a train coming in the distance. The tornado did some damage to surrounding properties nearby, our house was spared thankfully.

Later that evening, my mom, sister and myself walked downtown to Christina Street and Front Street to see the devastation first-hand. I remember dead birds everywhere, along with the old cars flipped upside down on the roadways. We lost a lot of trees in Sarnia on this day. It was incredibly scary; I can remember it like it was yesterday.”

A look at the back of Taylor’s Furniture Store on Christina Street, Courtesy of the Sarnia Historical Society.

Further Reading:

https://sarnianewstoday.ca/sarnia/news/2023/05/19/deadly-storm-sarnia-marks-70th-anniversary

https://skyrisecities.com/news/2016/07/cityscape-how-1950s-tornado-kickstarted-urban-renewal-imperial-city.21782

https://www.flickr.com/photos/sarniahistoricalsociety/albums/72157666099572743/

https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-times-herald-1953-tornado/63629417/

https://www.thesarniajournal.ca/top-story/from-the-archives-city-hall-operator-called-in-militia-after-downtown-devastated-by-1953-tornado-7973120

May 21, 2025

Ontario’s First Confirmed Tornado of 2025: EF0 Touches Down Near Woodstock Last Week

May 21, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Ontario’s tornado season has officially begun. The first confirmed tornado of 2025 touched down during the early morning hours of May 16th, just south of Lakeside, Ontario, northwest of Woodstock.

The tornado developed along the leading edge of a line of storms that had tracked into the province from Michigan.

While this EF0 tornado near Lakeside was the first confirmed in Ontario this year, it wasn’t the first in Canada.

According to the Northern Tornadoes Project, this brings Canada’s confirmed tornado count for 2025 to five.

The season began with an EF0 tornado in Alberta in early April, followed by an EF1 in Quebec later that month. Just one day before the Lakeside event, two EF0 tornadoes were confirmed in Manitoba on May 15th.

With peak season still ahead, this serves as a timely reminder that severe weather can happen quickly and under conditions that don’t always look extreme on the surface.

Even low-end risks deserve attention, especially when storms arrive at night, when people are less likely to be tuned in.

The Tornado: A Narrow but Confirmed Touchdown Near Lakeside

**Survey map for the Lakeside EF0 tornado** (source: Northern Tornadoes Project)

According to the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP), the tornado developed just south of the village of Lakeside, approximately 25 km northwest of Woodstock. It touched down around 3:00 AM EDT, shortly after a squall line of thunderstorms entered the region from the west.

**Drone photo of worst damage point featuring multiple snapped conifers** (source: Northern Tornadoes Project)

Damage was limited to trees and a power pole, with no injuries reported. The tornado was assessed as an EF0, with estimated maximum wind speeds of 115 km/h. It travelled a distance of 3.6 km, with a maximum path width of 160 metres, moving generally from the west-southwest (255°).

**Radar data shows possible rotation near lakeside** (source: iw pro)

Radar imagery at the time showed a compact area of low-level rotation, but due to the storm’s embedded structure and the overnight timing, the event went unwitnessed until damage was reported later that day.

The NTP conducted both ground and drone surveys on May 20th to confirm the tornado’s track and intensity.

This information is sourced from the Northern Tornadoes Project’s full report, which can be found here.

**Survey map showing the location of the EF0 downburst (black oval) and collected data** (source: Northern Tornadoes Project)

In addition to the confirmed tornado near Lakeside, the Northern Tornadoes Project also verified a separate EF0 downburst near Chatham from the same storm system.

The downburst occurred around 2:15 AM EDT, roughly 45 minutes before the tornado, and caused significant damage to several barns, farm buildings, power poles, and trees.

While similar wind damage was reported across parts of Southwestern Ontario—from Windsor to Shrewsbury—only the enhanced damage south of Chatham was surveyed.

Wind speeds were estimated to have peaked at 130 km/h, placing the event at the high end of the EF0 scale. No injuries were reported.

Timeline: Forecast Leading Up to the Tornado

Forecast models began flagging the potential for severe storms several days in advance, particularly in Deep Southwestern Ontario, where the environment appeared favourable for severe weather.

Instant Weather and the U.S. Storm Prediction Center both noted the possibility of tornadoes — albeit marginal — due to the timing and nocturnal nature of the storms. This provided over 24 hours of advance notice about the potential for severe weather.

Despite the lower-end risk, one storm managed to spin up a brief EF0 tornado shortly after 3:00 AM on May 16th.

Instant Weather first highlighted the tornado potential on Wednesday afternoon, referencing the Storm Prediction Center’s forecast and the setup in Michigan and Southwestern Ontario:

#ONStorm #ONwx ⚠️ SEVERE STORM RISK - LATE THURSDAY

Heads up! We’re closely watching the potential for strong storms late Thursday evening into the early morning hours of Friday.

Right now, the highest risk appears to be in Deep Southwestern Ontario—including Windsor, Chatham,… pic.twitter.com/SWU0hV7TAx
— Instant Weather Ontario ⛈️ (@IWeatherON) May 14, 2025

The following morning, just under 24 hours before the confirmed tornado, Instant Weather once again flagged the risk.

This time, the post specifically mentioned that a 2% tornado risk extended into Sarnia, Chatham, Grand Bend, and as far northeast as London, placing the affected area firmly within the broader risk zone:

#ONStorm #ONwx 🌪️ Tornado Thursday for Deep Southwestern Ontario?

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has just updated their severe weather outlook—and it now includes a more substantial tornado risk extending into the Windsor area.

They’ve upgraded the region around Windsor to a… pic.twitter.com/XglBkvJxBp
— Instant Weather Ontario ⛈️ (@IWeatherON) May 15, 2025

Later Thursday afternoon, a forecast was issued by Instant Weather calling for the potential of isolated tornadoes overnight. The forecast map outlined a marginal risk that included the area near Lakeside, where the tornado would eventually touch down:

#ONStorm #ONwx ⛈️💨 Nocturnal Thunderstorm Threat With Damaging Wind Gusts and Isolated Tornado Risk for Southwestern Ontario Tonight

📅 Thursday, May 15 - Friday, May 16, 2025

⤵️ VIEW THE FULL FORECAST:https://t.co/Pu0YPOAAVu

- Brennen pic.twitter.com/KYtjPY2hxR
— Instant Weather Ontario ⛈️ (@IWeatherON) May 15, 2025

Around 1:47 AM, just over an hour before the tornado touched down, Instant Weather sent out a custom notification for the London area, referencing minor rotation and clearly stating that “an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out”:

At 2:55 AM, Environment Canada issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, which included a note that severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. This came approximately five minutes before the tornado would touch down near Lakeside

Finally, live coverage was underway on Instant Weather’s YouTube channel during the time the tornado developed around 3:00 AM, as the storm moved through Oxford County.

May 15, 2025

Nocturnal Thunderstorm Threat With Damaging Wind Gusts and Isolated Tornado Risk for Southwestern Ontario Tonight

May 15, 2025/ Brennen Perry

updated map - 10:50 PM (CLICK HERE FOR THE PREVIOUS MAP)
***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

UPDATE (10:50 PM):

We’ve been closely tracking the line of storms developing across Michigan, and it’s now set to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario over the next few hours.

Based on the latest model data, current environmental conditions, and how well the storm is holding together despite the lack of daylight heating, we believe there’s enough evidence to upgrade parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario to a ‘strong’ (3/5) risk—mainly due to the potential for intense wind gusts.

Large hail up to the size of toonies is also possible, and we can’t completely rule out an isolated tornado.

We’ve also extended the ‘slight’ (2/5) risk further inland to include areas like Goderich and London, as new data suggests the line could stay fairly strong as it tracks deeper into Southwestern Ontario during the pre-dawn hours. Again, damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat.

The line is expected to cross the border just after midnight, with the severe threat gradually tapering off but still continuing until around 3–4 AM.

ORIGINAL FORECAST

While storm season has had a quiet start in Southern Ontario, things are beginning to ramp up with a late-night storm risk expected between Thursday evening and early Friday morning. A strong line of storms is forecast to form across Michigan late tonight, initially beginning as discrete supercells over parts of Wisconsin and Illinois.

Based on the latest guidance, these storms are expected to organize into a more linear structure as they track eastward, eventually crossing into Southwestern Ontario sometime just after midnight. While they’ll likely lose some of their strength after dark, especially without daytime heating, the atmosphere may still be supportive enough for them to maintain some intensity as they move into our region.

That said, there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty about just how strong this line will be once it crosses the border, and how quickly it might weaken as it tracks northeast through the early morning hours of Friday.

The biggest concern with this system is the potential for damaging wind gusts. This squall line will stretch from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan all the way down through Ohio as it enters Ontario, which could lead to widespread impacts. Areas from the Bruce Peninsula all the way down to Deep Southwestern Ontario are at risk of strong winds embedded within the line.

The highest risk appears to be in Deep Southwestern Ontario, where the line will first cross into Ontario. Regions like Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, and Sarnia are most likely to experience the strongest part of this line. While damaging wind gusts are the main hazard, we also can’t completely rule out the chance for hail and even a brief tornado, especially if the storms arrive a bit earlier than forecast.

Hail up to the size of quarters is possible, and while the tornado risk is considered low overall, it does exist. The biggest concern here is that this is a nocturnal threat. If a tornado were to develop overnight, it would be harder to spot and could be rain-wrapped, making it even more dangerous. That’s why it’s so important to stay alert and have a way to receive warnings while you sleep.

Storm development will begin with discrete cells over Wisconsin and Illinois, likely forming into a long line around 8–10 PM near Chicago and across Lake Michigan.

The timing of this formation is crucial. If the line develops sooner and sweeps across Michigan quickly, it could result in a more robust severe risk for Deep Southwestern Ontario, where the environment is more favourable before midnight.

No matter the timing, damaging winds remain the most likely outcome with this type of linear storm setup.

As of now, future radar models suggest the storms will cross into Ontario between 1 and 2 AM, hitting areas like Windsor and Sarnia first before stretching further northeast. However, there’s still wiggle room in this timing. It could arrive earlier and stronger, or later and already weakening before reaching our region.

**ESTIMATED TORNADO ENVIRONMENT** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

While widespread wind damage is the primary concern tonight, there is some minor tornado potential—especially in Essex County just after midnight. Again, the odds are low, but not zero.

Because of the overnight timing, it's extra important to have notifications enabled on your phone or weather radio. Make sure you have a way to receive alerts while you're asleep in case a warning is issued. Our free app is a great way to instantly get Environment Canada alerts, along with our custom notifications issued for your exact location.

The line of storms is expected to continue northeast through the early morning hours, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning to much of Southwestern Ontario and parts of the Greater Toronto Area between 3 and 6 AM.

While the line should gradually weaken during this time, it could still pack a punch in some localized areas. There’s some uncertainty around how long it will be able to hold its strength since the atmospheric environment in Ontario is notably weaker than what the storms had access to in the U.S.

Latest model runs show the system likely fizzles out once it reaches Lake Simcoe, meaning Eastern and Central Ontario probably won’t see much beyond a few scattered morning showers or storms.

Another round of storms is possible Friday afternoon and evening, particularly for Eastern Ontario and parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario. We’ll have more details on that in a separate update.

As it stands, the highest storm risk tonight is in Deep Southwestern Ontario, where we currently have a slight risk (2/5) for severe weather. The main hazard is damaging wind gusts between 12 and 6 AM, though isolated tornadoes and hail up to the size of quarters are also possible.

For the rest of Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, the risk is lower—a marginal (1/5) severe threat—with isolated pockets of wind damage being the most likely outcome. There’s also a very low tornado risk along the Lake Huron shoreline as the line initially pushes into the region. Hail up to the size of nickels could accompany some of these storms.

In addition to the overnight threat, a few isolated pop-up storms are possible during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of Grey-Bruce. While these are not expected to be severe, funnel clouds are possible, including a low-end risk of a landspout tornado. See our custom notification for more on the funnel cloud setup.

Stay weather-aware tonight. Keep your devices charged, notifications turned on, and have a plan in place just in case you need to take shelter quickly. We’ll continue to monitor the latest data and provide updates as the situation evolves, including a possible live stream later tonight.

Weather Forecasts & Articles