Retrograding Storm Will Bring a Freezing Rain Threat To New Brunswick Friday

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It’s been an extended wet stretch through the Maritimes lately and that pattern is set to continue over the next couple of days. A low pressure system that has been bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Newfoundland has begun to retrograde and travel westward towards the Maritimes, where it is expected to bring even more rain to the already soggy region starting later tonight.

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Most of the Maritimes can expect steady rain, that could be heavy at times, throughout the day Friday and into Saturday, with a widespread 5-30mm falling across the region and up to 50mm possible in the Cape Breton Highlands.

The leading edge of this storm, however, will encounter cool air over land in New Brunswick, with temperatures hovering around 0°C or just below, resulting in freezing rain falling for up to several hours. The freezing rain will begin in the early morning hours and gradually spread westward throughout the morning. As temperatures climb throughout the day, the freezing rain will transition to rain, but surfaces will still be quite slick with a thin layer of ice.

Up to 2mm of ice accretion can be expected across most of the province and closer to 4mm could be seen in the northwest where the cooler air will persist, leading to 4-6 hours of freezing rain. Areas along the eastern coast look like they will be spared from the freezing rain since temperatures are expected to stay a few degrees above freezing overnight. Make sure to take extra caution when travelling along icy roads and sidewalks tomorrow morning.

"The Legend Lives On" With the 49th Anniversary of the Sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald

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Photo of the Edmund Fitzgerald taken in 1975, courtesy of the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum.

Today we remember the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald and the loss of her 29 crew members in 1975. Many Canadians and Americans are familiar with this now infamous event thanks to a very popular song by Gordon Lightfoot from 1976, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. The ship sank 17 miles north-northwest of Whitefish Point, just outside of Whitefish Bay, an area that is sadly full of shipwrecks. To this day, there has been no official cause behind the wreck, but the weather was very likely a factor.

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The tracks of the Edmund Fitzgerald and the nearby Arthur M. Anderson, Courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Lake Superior is known for its intense November storms, known as gales or witches, and one such storm moved through the region on November 9th and 10th of 1975, when the Edmund Fitzgerald sank.

The Edmund Fitzgerald departed from Superior, Wisconsin at about 2:30pm on November 9th and was quickly joined by the Arthur M. Anderson, which had departed out of Two Harbors, Minnesota. The Captains of the two ships were aware of an incoming storm and opted to take the safer northern route across Lake Superior to their destinations. The Edmund Fitzgerald took the lead and the Arthur M. Anderson followed at a distance of 10 to 15 miles.

The National Weather Service issued a gale warning at 7pm on November 9th, which was then upgraded to a storm warning in the early morning hours of November 10th. By the early afternoon, winds were gusting at 50 knots (93 km/h) and waves were 3.5 to 5 metres (12 to 16 feet) tall, but these were conditions that the Captains could handle.

The conditions continued to deteriorate throughout the afternoon and at 3:30pm, Captain McSorley of the Edmund Fitzgerald radioed the Arthur M. Anderson to report minor damage to the ship along with a list (a tilt). He asked the other ship to stay close until they got to Whitefish Bay, at the eastern end of Lake Superior, and he would slow down so they could follow closer. Captain Cooper of the Arthur M. Anderson agreed and the two ships continued on their journey.

Reports from the Arthur M. Anderson give us the best insight to the conditions the two ships faced heading into the evening. At approximately 5:20pm, Captain Cooper reported sustained winds of 58 knots (107 km/h) and gusts of 70 knots (130 km/h) along with waves of 5.5 to 7.5 metres (18 to 25 feet). Then, at about 6:55pm, the crew felt a “bump” and the ship lurched due to a gigantic wave crashing into the ship from behind, forcing the bow under water. Just as the ship recovered, a second wave hit. Captain Cooper later said that he watched those two waves head towards the Edmund Fitzgerald ahead of them and he believed that those two waves sank her.

The Arthur M. Anderson made its final contact with the Edmund Fitzgerald at 7:10pm to confirm their position. They were having trouble tracking the lead ship because the waves were so high that they were interfering with radar. The ship kept disappearing and reappearing on radar, but at 7:15pm, it disappeared for the last time. The Arthur M. Anderson tried to contact the Edmund Fitzgerald once again at 7:22pm, but there was no answer. The Edmund Fitzgerald was not seen again until May 20th, 1976, 163 metres (535 feet) below the surface of the lake.

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Modelled wave heights and directions on lake superior at 7pm, November 10th, 1975. The location of the Edmund Fitzgerald wreck is marked by the red plus, Courtesy of the National Weather Service.

In 2006, a study re-examined the November 1975 storm using modern computer modelling in order to determine wind strength and wave heights at the time of the sinking. According to these models, it’s likely that the waves were at least 7.5 metres (25 feet) tall driven by sustained winds over 45 knots (83 km/h). Unfortunately, the worst conditions from this storm occurred exactly when and where the Edmund Fitzgerald sank.

Three months after the discovery of the doomed ship, Gordon Lightfoot released his hit song, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, which has forever memorialized the ship into the hearts and minds of Canadians and Americans alike. The anniversary of the sinking is still honoured every year at the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum at Whitefish Point. In the ceremony, the recovered bell of the Edmund Fitzgerald is rung 29 times, for each crew member lost, and a 30th time for all others who have been lost to the Great Lakes.

Further Reading:

Hultquist, T.R., Dutter, M.R. and Schwab, D.J. (2006). Reexamination of the 9–10 November 1975 “Edmund Fitzgerald” Storm Using Today's Technology. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(5), 607-622. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-5-607

https://www.shipwreckmuseum.com/edmund-fitzgerald/

https://www.shipwreckmuseum.com/the-fateful-journey/

https://www.ssedmundfitzgerald.org/storm-and-voyage

https://www.weather.gov/mqt/fitz_fitz

A Brief Blast of Winter Will Blow Through Central Alberta to Finish the Week

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It was a snowy start to the week in Alberta and it looks like the same can be said for the end of the week as well. This time, however, the snowfall will be shorter-lived and not as widespread. Once again, temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark beyond the Rockies will result in precipitation falling as wet snow or a rain and snow mixture as the system tracks eastward across the province.

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Steady light rain is slated to begin in the Grande Cache area and the northern edge of the Rockies Friday morning. The rain will be mixed with snow in the mountains, leading to a bit of accumulation. By the evening, the rain will start to transition to wet snow which will begin to spread southeast into Jasper and along the Icefields Parkway. The snow will stall over this region for roughly 24 hours, leading to over 10cm of snow falling by Sunday morning.

On Saturday morning, a patch of precipitation will break away with a weak low-pressure center and push eastward across the width of the province over the course of the day. Given the single-digit highs expected across Central Alberta on Saturday and how quickly the system will move through the region, this light precipitation will likely fall as a mix of rain and snow and snowfall totals are forecasted to be less than 2cm.

After crossing into Saskatchewan, this patch of precipitation will lose a bit of its eastward momentum as the system interacts with an even stronger low coming up from the States that has been bringing historic snowfall to parts of New Mexico. As the system stalls, the snow will persist overnight Saturday and into mid-morning Sunday over an area just west of the Saskatchewan border, from Cold Lake to Lloydminster, bringing snowfall totals closer to 5cm.

It looks like snow is once again in the forecast to start next week so keep your shovels ready!

What's in a Name? Choosing the Right Tires to Drive you Through Canadian Winters

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Tread patterns of summer, all season and winter tires. Image courtesy of discount tire.

Now that it’s the first week of November, many Canadians are starting to think about putting winter tires on their vehicles. There have been pockets of unseasonable warmth across the country in October and the start of November, the inevitable chill of winter is in the air, and many have already seen snow fall.

While winter tires are recommended throughout the country, they are mandatory in Quebec from December 1st to March 15th, and from October 1st to April 30th on certain British Columbia highways. Additionally, studded tires are allowed almost nationwide, with the exception of residents of Southern Ontario.

Insurance companies across the country offer discounts for installing winter tires as an incentive to encourage drivers to reduce the risk of accidents. So what makes winter tires that much better in the cold and snow than summer tires and where do all season and all weather tires fit into the mix?

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With the right tools, it can be pretty easy to change your own tires!

Summer Tires

Summer tires are designed to handle both wet and dry road conditions with their wide tread and soft rubber. These tires also usually have deeper grooves that improve traction on wet roads and reduce hydroplaning, making them ideal for the wet spring and summer months.

Winter Tires

Like their name suggests, winter tires have been designed for winter roads. They are made with rubber that stays flexible at temperatures below 7°C (45°F), the magic number at which other tires become stiff and lose traction, greatly reducing their performance. Furthermore, winter tires have different tread patterns that are meant to divert water and slush to the sides, as well as little slits called sipes that increase the overall grip of the tires and helping them maintain contact with icy road surfaces. Over the past several years, tire manufacturers have started to include additional small particles, like crushed glass or walnut shells, that act as little studs on the surface of the tire for extra grip.

Performance of All Season Tires vs Winter Tires with decreasing temperatures. Image courtesy of Discount Tire.

All Season & All Weather Tires

Some people argue that winter tires aren’t necessary if they have all season tires on their vehicle. Unfortunately, this is a slight misnomer because while these tires can handle a bit of cold and snow, they fail to handle heavier snowfalls that are common in Canadian winters. All season tires, unfortunately, sacrifice traction in wet conditions that would be found in summer tires and some of the flexibility and grip seen with winter tires in order for the tread to last longer. Realistically, these should be called 3 season tires as opposed to all season. So while they’re not the best option for winter driving in Canada, all season tires are definitely a better choice than regular summer tires.

All weather tires, not to be confused with all season tires, are a true year-round tire designed to handle Canadian winters. Unlike all season tires, these tires remain soft and flexible well below 7°C. The tread pattern on all weather tires is a combination of all season and winter tires, making them better suited for driving through heavier snow than all season tires. While they still don’t match the performance of a true winter tire, all weather tires are the best option for those who don’t want the hassle of swapping out their tires twice per year or simply do not have the space to store an extra set. Their versatility truly makes all weather tires a middle of the road tire (pun intended) for Canadian drivers.

The three-peak mountain snowflake symbol found on winter and all weather tires. Image courtesy of Canadian tire.

When looking for tires to get you through the winter, it is recommended to chose either a proper winter tire or an all weather tire, so long as it has the three-peak mountain and snowflake symbol on the sidewall. This is an industry standard symbol which indicates that the tire meets strict regulations for winter performance; becoming mandatory on all winter tires beginning in 2018, transitioning away from just using the M+S (Mud and Snow) designation.

Further Reading

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/how-to/automotive/how-to-choose-winter-tires.html

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-laws-in-canada/

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-markings/

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/tires-below-45

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/winter-summer-allseason

Note: The author formerly received payments from “Big Tire” however, this article was not funded.

Update: Wintry Mix Continues, Pocket of Sub-Freezing Temperatures to Increase Snowfall Totals Tuesday

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It’s been a messy start to the week across parts of Alberta and into Southern Saskatchewan, with a low pressure system bringing mixed precipitation to the region today. This storm has been progressing as expected so far, but the latest data from weather models has resulted in some slight revisions to our forecast for Tuesday.

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Throughout the day Monday, we’ve seen temperatures above freezing across most of Southern and Central Alberta, resulting in precipitation falling as a rain-snow mix, and limiting overall snowfall accumulations. The exception to this has been in the Grande Cache area, where the temperatures have remained below 0°C and the precipitation has fallen as snow.

The single digit temperatures will continue overnight across most of Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, but with being only being a degree or two above, or even at, freezing, we expect there to be a bit more snow accumulating beginning in the early morning hours Tuesday. This has been reflected by an increase in the forecasted snowfall for Taber, Brooks and north towards Strathmore and Drumheller.

As the temperatures begin to climb after sunrise, we will see the transition back to a rain-snow mix across the region. However, there is a small pocket where sub-zero temperatures will persist throughout the day, particularly in Medicine Hat, Maple Creek and the surrounding area. Steady snowfall will increase accumulations amounts to 5-10cm with locally higher amounts of up to 15cm possible in this area by the end of the day.

It is also expected that the precipitation from this system will push further eastward into Saskatchewan Tuesday afternoon and evening. By the late afternoon Tuesday, Arctic air will flood into the Prairies so the remaining light precipitation in Southern Saskatchewan at that point will fall as snow. As a result, we have extended the area covered by the 2-5cm range to include Outlook, Moose Jaw, and Assiniboia. Meanwhile, Saskatoon, Watrous, Fort Qu’Appelle, Estevan, and areas in between can now expect trace amounts (less than 2cm) of snow. The snow will diminish overnight, but scattered light flurries are possible in Southeast Saskatchewan Wednesday morning.

Temperatures to Soar Above 20°C Across Southern Ontario on Tuesday With Gusty Winds

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As we step into the first days of November, the temperatures outside might have you double-checking the calendar, as the unusually warm trend of this fall continues. This lingering seasonal tug-of-war between cold and warm air has led to temperature swings from near-freezing to over 20°C in the past few weeks.

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Despite the calendar saying November, it’ll feel more like early fall on Tuesday as temperatures rise to around 20°C across much of Southern Ontario. Accompanying this brief warm-up will be strong wind gusts, reaching 70-80 km/h in some areas.

A warm front moving across Southern Ontario is bringing in this surge of mild air, making its presence felt overnight into Tuesday. Already, spots around Lake Erie in southwestern Ontario are feeling this effect, with temperatures climbing near the 20°C mark by Monday evening.

In contrast, parts of Central Ontario and the Ottawa Valley have remained in the single digits, with areas near Ottawa hovering close to freezing. But don’t worry; that’s about to change as warmer air spreads in!

Overnight, temperatures will gradually rise, with most of Southern Ontario waking up to mild conditions in the mid to upper teens. In Central and Eastern Ontario, expect to start the day with temperatures in the lower teens.

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Throughout Tuesday, the warm-up will continue, with daytime highs near 20°C or slightly higher in some areas. The latest data suggests the warmest air will be centred along the Golden Horseshoe and deep southwestern Ontario, including cities like Windsor and Chatham, where temperatures could reach 21-24°C. Some locations may even approach record highs, though with records around 23-25°C in many spots, breaking them might be a tall order.

The rest of Southern Ontario, except for the Bruce Peninsula and northern parts of Central Ontario, will enjoy temperatures around 18-21°C. Northern regions, including Tobermory, Parry Sound, Huntsville, and Algonquin Park, will see slightly cooler temperatures around 15-18°C. Meanwhile, Northeastern Ontario will experience mild conditions, with highs in the low to mid-teens.

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TEMPERATURES 10-14°C ABOVE SEASONAL- MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

If 20°C temperatures in November seem strange, you're right! Daytime highs for this time of year are typically in the upper single digits or low teens, so we’re looking at temperatures around 10-14°C above average across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.

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Winds will also be a key feature on Tuesday, with gusts approaching 70 km/h across much of Southern Ontario by the morning. These winds should weaken somewhat later in the day but are expected to pick up again overnight into early Wednesday.

A few areas—particularly around Lake Erie, Niagara, higher elevations east of Lake Huron, and northeast of Georgian Bay—could see stronger gusts up to 80 km/h, although this will be highly localized. Most places should expect gusts around 70 km/h, with winds easing off by late Wednesday morning.

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Northeastern Ontario will see heavy rain beginning early Tuesday morning and lasting through the day and night, with rainfall totals reaching 30-50 mm by Wednesday afternoon in some spots.

Southwestern Ontario will also see moderate to heavy rain starting early Wednesday morning, which will then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario by late morning. However, some models indicate that the rain might weaken before reaching Eastern Ontario, resulting in only a few millimeters. Southwestern and Central Ontario could see rainfall amounts of 5-15 mm.

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Wednesday will bring a dramatic change as a cold front sweeps across Southern Ontario, leading to a significant temperature drop by the day’s end. By Wednesday evening, temperatures across much of Southern Ontario will fall sharply into the low to mid-single digits, giving us a reminder that winter is just around the corner.

Messy Wintry Mix to Impact Alberta & Saskatchewan for the First Week of November

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The first week of November is going to have an active and messy start across Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. The arrival of a low pressure system will bring widespread precipitation Monday and Tuesday, but the dominant type of precipitation that falls will vary throughout the region.

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The low pressure centre will cross into Alberta Monday morning in the Grande Cache area, bringing steady light snow to the area. As the low gradually travels southeastward across the province throughout the day and overnight, the precipitation will follow and spread across much of Central and Southern Alberta and continue for most of the day Tuesday. The low will move into Saskatchewan by early Tuesday morning, bringing precipitation to the southwest region of the province throughout the morning and into the late evening before dissipating.

The exact snowfall accumulation across Alberta and Saskatchewan from this system has been tough to forecast, with temperatures in the single digits for a large part of the region, meaning that the precipitation will fall as a mixture of rain and snow. This, combined with still mild ground temperature, should greatly reduce overall snow accumulations. As a result, we’ve gone with a more conservative snowfall forecast. The areas with the greatest snowfall potential, and the least mixing, will be found to the west of the low pressure system, behind its associated cold front and in the area with the coolest air, namely in the Grande Cache area and through the Rockies.

Spooky Skies Ahead! Southern Ontario Could See Warmest Halloween on Record; Up to 10-15cm of Snow Could Haunt Northern Ontario

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Excitement is brewing as Halloween night approaches, and the streets are set to fill with little ghosts, goblins, and creatures of the night. However, it seems Mother Nature may have skipped the “or” in Trick-or-Treat this year. While Southern Ontario is in for an unusually warm treat, there’s also a wintry “trick” in the forecast, as the first messy winter system of the season stirs up across the northern portion of the province.

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Before we dive into the chilly details, let’s savor the treat: a Halloween night warmer than most! Unlike Halloweens past, where bone-chilling temperatures hovered near or below freezing, this year brings weather that feels more like late summer or early fall. Temperatures across Southern Ontario will keep that warm spell lingering, with some areas possibly experiencing record-breaking highs for Halloween.

In years past, Canadian trick-or-treaters have bundled up with extra layers under their costumes to ward off the cold. This Halloween, they may find themselves shedding layers, with temperatures expected to reach the upper teens and even low 20s in some spots.

Prime trick-or-treating time around 8 PM will bring readings of 16-20°C across much of Southern Ontario, with slightly cooler temperatures between 14-16°C around Algonquin Park and the Bruce Peninsula. Daytime highs earlier in the day may reach the low or even mid-20s, with some areas potentially setting new temperature records.

However, Halloween night won’t stay warm for long. A cold front will sweep through late in the evening, quickly dropping temperatures as it ushers in much colder air overnight. Those celebrating late into the witching hour should brace themselves for temperatures plunging into the single digits by early Friday morning.

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Northern Ontario’s Ghostly Chill

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While Southern Ontario basks in warmer weather, the tale turns a bit chillier in Northern Ontario. Southern portions of Northeastern Ontario, including Elliot Lake, Sudbury, and North Bay, will enjoy temperatures between 12-16°C during Halloween evening. But for Central Northeastern communities like Chapleau, Temiskaming Shores, and Kirkland Lake, temperatures will drop to single digits, adding an extra shiver to the festivities.

Northwestern and Far Northern Ontario will already be feeling the effects of the cold front by trick-or-treat time, with temperatures hovering near or just below the freezing mark. In these areas, those venturing out for Halloween night will definitely need to incorporate extra layers into their costumes.

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So, Where’s the Trick?

PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR Halloween EVENING - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

You may be wondering, with all this warm weather, where’s the trick in this Halloween forecast? The trick this year will be what’s coming down from the sky. Scattered rain showers are set to creep into Southern Ontario starting Thursday afternoon, with the heaviest rainfall likely in parts of Northeastern Ontario and along the western areas of Southern Ontario.

In fact, there could even be isolated thunderstorms around Georgian Bay. So if you’re out collecting candy, keep an eye on the skies, and take cover if you see lightning or hear thunder. Trick-or-treaters in Eastern Ontario, on the other hand, might just escape the rain until later in the evening.

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Fortunately, rainfall amounts across Southern Ontario are expected to stay light, with 5-15 mm in areas seeing the heaviest showers. Thunderstorm activity could increase these totals in very localized spots, but nothing overly dramatic.

The heaviest rain will be concentrated in Northeastern Ontario, stretching from Sault Ste. Marie through Sudbury and up to North Bay. Some of these areas are currently under a rainfall warning from Environment Canada, with up to 60 mm of rain possible from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

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A Halloween Surprise: Snow in Northern Ontario!

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And now, for the big Halloween scare! As rain moves across Ontario, colder air in the north will bring a chilling twist, transforming rain into snow by Thursday afternoon in some areas. The spooky snowfall is set to begin from Wawa up through Kapuskasing, with heavy snow expected to continue through the overnight hours into Friday morning.

For those areas in the “snow zone,” accumulation could be significant. A corridor stretching from Wawa to Kapuskasing may see up to 10-15 cm of snow by Friday morning, though actual amounts may vary based on temperatures near the freezing mark, which can affect how well snow sticks to the ground.

Surrounding areas, including Wawa, Kapuskasing, Timmins, and Cochrane, could see 5-10 cm of snow accumulation. However, warmer ground temperatures may mean that some snow melts on contact, reducing the totals.

Northeastern Ontario, north of a line from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury, may also pick up a dusting to a few centimetres of snow Thursday night into Friday, with up to 5 cm possible. Thunder Bay could even see a few flurries, though no accumulation is expected there.

So, Ontario, prepare for a Halloween that’s part treat, with warm weather for many, and part trick, with rain and snow making an appearance in others. However, you plan to celebrate, have a safe and spooky Halloween night!

Spooky Snow May Make an Appearance in Parts of Ontario to Kick Off Halloween Week

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The month of October has mostly brought calm and mild conditions to Ontario, with temperatures occasionally climbing above seasonal averages and minimal precipitation. But as we approach the final days leading up to Halloween, colder air is making a return, setting the stage for a possible wintry “trick” in parts of the region.

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This past week, temperatures in some areas reached the upper teens and even low 20s, but now a noticeable chill has settled in. Many spots across Southern and Northern Ontario are already experiencing single-digit highs as the warm air retreats.

As the weekend progresses, the cold will only deepen, with Sunday morning expected to bring temperatures near or just below freezing across the province. Afternoon highs will provide little relief, as most places in Central and Eastern Ontario will likely struggle to rise out of the single digits.

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A Weak Weather System and a Chance of Snow

PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY EVENING - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

On Sunday, a weak weather system will begin to make its way into Northeastern Ontario and eventually move toward Central Ontario by the afternoon. This will likely bring some light rain showers to areas like Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, North Bay, and Muskoka. As colder air continues to push southward after sunset, temperatures will drop quickly, setting the stage for a possible transition from rain to wet snow in the evening.

While surface temperatures are expected to stay just above freezing until after midnight, colder air moving in aloft may allow the rain to change to snow as the night progresses. Precipitation will gradually spread southeastward, reaching Bancroft, Kingston, and possibly the Ottawa area.

There is some uncertainty about whether Ottawa itself will see any snowflakes, as models suggest that a dry air pocket may limit snowfall, keeping the bulk of moisture just to the south.

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Potential for Accumulation and a Hard Freeze

ESTIMATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY MORNING - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Temperatures will continue to drop overnight, leading to what is referred to as a “hard freeze” in areas like Sudbury, North Bay, Algonquin Park, and the Ottawa Valley. During a hard freeze, temperatures remain several degrees below freezing for extended periods, which could kill sensitive plants.

The drop in temperature may also allow for some light snow accumulation, with a dusting of 2-3 cm possible by Monday morning in some areas. Though not a significant amount, it could be enough to create slippery conditions on roads, making for a potentially slow and hazardous Monday morning commute.

Light flurries may linger across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario into late Monday morning, gradually tapering off around noon. With temperatures hovering close to the freezing mark throughout the day, any snow that does manage to accumulate will likely melt slowly. Motorists should remain cautious, as wet or slushy conditions could persist longer than usual.

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Midweek Warm-Up on the Horizon

ESTIMATED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

For those hoping for a break from the cold, a warm-up is expected by midweek. By Tuesday, daytime highs in parts of Southwestern Ontario could rebound into the low to mid-20s, with the warmer air spreading to Central and Eastern Ontario by Wednesday.

However, the return of milder weather may be accompanied by some wet conditions. A fast-moving weather system is forecast to pass through Southern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing the potential for 15-30 mm of rainfall across Central and Eastern Ontario between late Tuesday and Wednesday.

While the exact track remains uncertain, some models suggest the rain may shift further north, potentially impacting the area differently than initially expected.

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What’s in Store for Halloween?

ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE FOR HALLOWEEN AT 8 PM - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

With Halloween fast approaching, many Ontarians are wondering what the weather will be like for Trick-or-Treating. As of now, forecasts indicate a chance of widespread rain across much of Southern Ontario during the afternoon, possibly lingering into the evening. Afternoon temperatures are expected to start in the mid to upper teens, but a cooling trend may bring them down to the low teens or even upper single digits by the time Trick-or-Treaters hit the streets.

There is still some disagreement among models regarding the exact timing of the rain. While it seems the heaviest precipitation may fall earlier in the day, there is a chance that skies could clear in time for the evening festivities, especially in Southwestern Ontario. Meanwhile, Eastern Ontario may be among the last regions to see any potential clearing.

Stay tuned as more details emerge in the days leading up to Halloween, and be prepared for whatever weather “tricks” or “treats” may come your way!

Trick-or-Treat: A Potential Spooky ‘Headless’ Comet Could Be Visible Across Canada Around Halloween

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It's been a spectacular year for skywatchers across Canada, with events like solar eclipses, supermoons, and vibrant northern lights lighting up the night. Now, it looks like we might be in for another treat—a "headless" comet could make an appearance just in time for Halloween.

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October seems to be the month of comets, with Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS gracing the early evening skies recently. Many stargazers caught glimpses of the comet, which was visible in the western sky just after sunset. Although it has since faded from naked-eye visibility, you can still catch it with a telescope, and it will remain somewhat visible into early November.

But the cosmic show isn’t over yet. A second comet, called Comet ATLAS (C/2024 S1), may arrive just in time for Halloween, and it comes with a spooky twist—it could appear "headless." The comet’s name might sound familiar because it was discovered by the same ATLAS asteroid tracking system, known for spotting objects that could potentially impact Earth.

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The main difference between this upcoming comet and the earlier one lies in its path. While the first comet passed safely between Earth and the Sun, around 40 million miles from the Sun, this new comet will come much closer, potentially within 700,000 miles of the Sun's surface. Because of this close approach, scientists predict that the comet’s head—its bright core—might disintegrate due to the Sun's intense heat, leaving just a faint, trailing tail visible from Earth.

To understand what makes a comet appear "headless," it's important to know a bit about its structure. Comets are made up of a nucleus, or core, composed of rock, dust, and frozen gases. When they approach the Sun, the heat causes the frozen gases to vaporize, forming a glowing coma around the nucleus and a tail that extends away from the Sun. If the nucleus disintegrates, the glowing head might vanish, leaving behind only a ghostly tail, hence the term "headless comet."

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ESTIMATED BRIGHTNESS OF COMET - SOURCE: sKYWALK.SPACE

The exact visibility of this comet remains uncertain. It will come closest to Earth on October 24th as it travels toward the Sun, reaching its closest point to the Sun, known as perihelion, on October 28th. There’s even a chance it could be bright enough to see during the day, potentially appearing as bright as Venus from 7:12 AM to 8:06 AM (ET) in the east-southeastern sky.

However, those in the Northern Hemisphere may struggle to spot it due to its position low in the sky near the Sun, making it difficult to see without obstruction from sunlight or clouds.

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NASA offers some tips for spotting the comet during this close approach. To view it safely, you should block the Sun with an object such as a building or tree, then scan the lower left of the Sun's position in the sky. Be cautious and never use binoculars or telescopes, as accidentally focusing on the Sun can cause serious eye damage.

If the comet survives its close encounter with the Sun, it could become visible in the night sky around Halloween. This would provide skywatchers with a unique opportunity to see a potentially "headless" comet, with a long, wispy tail but no visible nucleus. The darkness of the moonless night sky could offer ideal conditions for observing this unusual celestial visitor, making it a fitting cosmic event for the spooky season.

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There is always the possibility that the comet disintegrates completely, leaving nothing visible to the naked eye. But if it endures, it will gradually fade after November 1st, requiring binoculars or a telescope for further observation. Unlike earlier this month, when a supermoon washed out the sky, the absence of a full moon could make for an even more impressive show, assuming the comet survives.

Stay tuned for updates as we keep an eye on this intriguing comet.

Why the Northern Lights Are Appearing More Frequently: NASA and NOAA Confirm Solar Maximum

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Visible light images from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory highlight the appearance of the Sun at solar minimum (left, Dec. 2019) versus solar maximum (right, August 2024). During solar minimum, the Sun is often spotless. Sunspots are associated with solar activity, and are used to track solar cycle progress. Credit: NASA/SDO

During a recent teleconference, experts from NASA, NOAA, and the International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel confirmed that the Sun has entered its solar maximum, a period of heightened solar activity expected to last through the next year.

The solar cycle reaches this peak roughly every 11 years, during which the Sun shifts from a relatively calm state to a much more active phase characterized by increased magnetic activity and a higher number of sunspots. These sunspots, which are cooler areas on the Sun’s surface caused by intense magnetic fields, can trigger powerful solar eruptions that significantly impact space weather.

This surge in solar activity doesn’t just make for an interesting spectacle; it can also have practical consequences on Earth. Solar flares and eruptions during this time can interfere with communications, disrupt GPS signals, and even affect power grids. They can also pose potential hazards to satellites and astronauts in orbit.

But for skywatchers, there is an upside: the solar maximum period also brings more frequent and spectacular aurora displays. The increased solar storms energize the Earth’s magnetosphere, producing stunning Northern Lights that light up the night sky.

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The Solar Cycle 25 forecast, produced by the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is co-chaired by NASA and NOAA. Sunspot number is an indicator of solar cycle strength - the higher the sunspot number, the stronger the cycle. Credit: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center

This past May, a powerful series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) resulted in one of the most intense geomagnetic storms seen in decades, setting the stage for breathtaking aurora displays visible across Canada. For many, it was a rare opportunity to experience the vivid greens, reds, and purples dancing across the sky.

If you didn’t catch those May displays or other recent aurora events, there’s no need to worry. With the Sun currently in its solar maximum, NASA and NOAA anticipate ongoing solar and geomagnetic storms in the coming months, which means there will be many more chances to witness the auroras.

Although the Sun is already in an active phase, pinpointing the exact peak of this cycle will take time as scientists closely monitor the number and intensity of sunspots and solar eruptions.

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Exciting research efforts are also underway to better understand the Sun's behavior during this dynamic period. NASA is preparing for a major milestone in solar exploration, with the Parker Solar Probe set to make its closest approach to the Sun in December 2024. This mission, along with other initiatives, aims to deepen our knowledge of space weather and its effects on our planet.

Here at Instant Weather, we’re committed to keeping you informed about significant solar activity and providing timely alerts for aurora viewing opportunities across Canada. As the Sun continues to show off during this solar maximum, be sure to stay tuned for updates and get ready for more spectacular light shows in the sky.

First Significant Snowfall of the Season Expected Across Alberta to Start the Week

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On the heels of some mild temperatures for the past week, a drastic cool down is already on its way courtesy of a strong cold front. Precipitation is expected along this cold front and unfortunately, the temperatures will dip low enough across much of Central and Southern Alberta for some of that precipitation to fall as snow, hitting the region in two rounds.

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The cold front has already started to make its way through Alberta from the north, bringing single digit temperatures to areas north of Red Deer and a large band of precipitation behind it spanning the width of the province. Most of this precipitation has been falling as rain, but to the west, through Grande Cache and Grande Prairie, there has been light snow. The rain will transition to snow moving eastwards this evening and overnight as the temperatures continue to fall and a low pressure centre moves in from the west, pushing the front and its associated precipitation towards Saskatchewan.

South of this first round of snowfall, conditions will stay dry until late Monday morning when additional precipitation will push its way into the region from British Columbia, crossing eastward across Alberta through the afternoon and evening. With the passage of the expected low pressure centre and a second cold front, temperatures will actually drop throughout the day so a large swath of Southern Alberta will see precipitation start off as rain, but transition to snow later in the afternoon as the temperature continues to drop. The exception to this will be in the Rockies, where the precipitation is expected to fall predominantly as snow, leading to upwards of 20cm of snowfall accumulation.

Forecasting the exact amount of snowfall for this event has been tough because the temperatures will not fall too far below 0°C, only a few degrees in most places. Furthermore, the ground is still warm across much of the province, meaning that overall accumulation should be limited to just a few centimetres beyond the mountains. Despite this, roadways could still become slick, so make sure to exercise caution when travelling over the next couple of days.

After a Slow Start, Fall Colours Now Entering Peak Across Southern Ontario

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An unusually warm start to autumn across Southern Ontario has delayed the typical fall colour transformation, leaving many waiting longer than usual for those vibrant displays. In our last update from early October, peak colours had only been reached in Central Ontario and parts of Eastern Ontario, several weeks later than usual.

However, the colder weather that settled in over the past few weeks has helped speed up the transformation across the region. As we head into the weekend, most areas in Southern Ontario are now approaching or experiencing peak colour change.

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For provincial parks that reached their peak earlier this month—such as Algonquin Park, Arrowhead, and Bonnechere—the best days have likely passed, with reports indicating that fewer than 40% of the leaves remain on the trees.

Note: The above map is extrapolated using data from OntarioParks.ca, but some parks may not have updated their latest report yet. As such, the actual colour change in your area may be further along than currently reported.

Keep in mind that many parks have closed for the season after Thanksgiving, which explains why some areas lack data in our latest updated map.

Currently, the following parks are experiencing peak fall colours:

  • Arrowhead: 100% colour change | 40% leaf fall

  • Balsam Lake: 60% colour change | 30% leaf fall

  • Batchawana Bay: 90% colour change | 40% leaf fall

  • Bon Echo: 80% colour change | 50% leaf fall

  • Bronte Creek: 50% colour change | 20% leaf fall

  • French River: 80% colour change | 50% leaf fall

  • Killarney: 80% colour change | 40% leaf fall

  • Killbear: 60% colour change | 30% leaf fall

  • MacGregor Point: 60% colour change | 40% leaf fall

  • Mark S. Burnham: 50% colour change | 40% leaf fall

  • Mono Cliffs: 60% colour change | 20% leaf fall

  • Oxtongue River-Ragged Falls: 100% colour change | 40% leaf fall

  • Sauble Falls: 100% colour change | 40% leaf fall

  • The Massasauga: 90% colour change | 20% leaf fall

The last regions still waiting to reach peak colours are in Deep Southwestern Ontario, along the Lake Erie shoreline, and in parts of the Golden Horseshoe. Parks in these areas, including Pinery, Wheatley, Rondeau, Turkey Point, Darlington, Presqu'ile, and Sandbanks, are reporting between 30-40% colour change. It's likely that these parks will reach peak colours by next weekend.

Remember that peak fall colours typically last for about a week or two, but this can vary based on weather conditions. The peak period ends once more than 50% of the leaves have fallen, which can happen quickly after a strong windstorm. So, make the most of the season and get out there while the colours are at their brightest!

Toronto’s Storm of the Century: Remembering Hurricane Hazel 70 Years Later

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Overhead view of Raymore drive in Toronto following hurricane hazel, courtesy of Toronto and Region Conservation Authority.

It was on this day 70 years ago, in 1954, that the now infamous Hurricane Hazel hit Southern Ontario and caused catastrophic damage to Toronto. It is considered the area’s worst natural disaster and has shaped development for years to come. The storm produced winds up to 124km/h and dumped over 200mm of rain in just 24 hours; left 81 people dead and over 4000 families homeless, 1868 of those families in Toronto; and caused over $135 million in damages in Ontario ($1.5 billion by today’s standards). Hazel changed the way conservation authorities operate across Ontario and those impacts are still felt to this day.

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Hurricane Hazel's Path, October 14-15, 1954, Courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Hurricane Hazel was first identified on October 5, 1954 by a Hurricane Hunters aircraft from Puerto Rico which located it just east of the island nation of Grenada in the West Indies. The plane estimated that the storm was already a Category 2 hurricane with winds estimated at 160km/h, but this value was more recently revised to 105km/h, making Hazel a Tropical Storm at the time, during reanalysis of former hurricane seasons by NOAA. Hazel intensified following the Hurricane Hunters mission and it made its first landfall over Grenada on the evening of the 5th as a Category 1 hurricane with winds estimated at 120km/h.

From there, Hazel tracked west-northwestward off the northern coast of Venezuela for the next few days, gaining strength along the way. Late on October 9th, Hazel gained Major Hurricane status with winds estimated at 195km/h. The next day, the storm made a sharp turn and started churning northeastward, where it eventually made two separate landfalls on Haiti’s west coast, initially over the Tiberon Peninsula as a Category 3 with winds estimated at 195km/h in the pre-dawn hours on the 12th and then as a Category 2 with estimated winds of 160km/h later that same evening over the northern peninsula. Hurricane Hazel killed up to 1000 people in Haiti and devastated the economy, destroying 40% of the nation’s coffee trees and 50% of the cacao crop.

Following its second landfall in Haiti, Hurricane Hazel curled northwestward and made its fourth total landfall in Inagua, an island in the Bahamas, less than 18 hours later on the morning of the 13th. The storm maintained its Category 2 strength between the two landfall occurrences, hitting the Bahamas with winds estimated at 160km/h.

Beyond the Bahamas, Hazel gained speed and reintensified, becoming a Category 4 hurricane on the evening of October 14th. Just before noon on October 15th, Hazel made its fifth and final landfall near the border of North Carolina and South Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 215km/h and gusts up to 240km/h. Hazel quickly transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone, but it maintained hurricane-force winds as it quickly pushed through D.C., Pennsylvania, New York, and towards the Canadian border. The storm killed 95 Americans and caused over $1.5 billion of damage by today’s standards.

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Surface Chart from 8:3pm ET showing the location of Hazel over Southern Ontario, Courtesy of the National Weather Service.

As Hazel made its way northward through the States, Canadian authorities began issuing warnings to the general public, but most people didn’t know how to prepare for a hurricane. The storm began to weaken over the Allegheny Mountains in West Virginia and meteorologists expected it to dissipate, however the opposite happened. Instead, Hazel encountered a low-pressure system over western New York and intensified just before it crossed into the Niagara Peninsula.

Hurricane Hazel was a post-tropical Category 1 storm that brought severe wind gusts of up to 124km/h to a large portion of Southern Ontario on October 15th, but the winds were not the main concern from the storm. By the evening rush hour, the winds began to die down, but according to Chief Meteorologist Brian Turnbull, the worst of the storm was yet to come. The days leading up to Hazel’s arrival were quite wet so when the heavy rainfall began in the late afternoon, it didn’t take long for flooding to begin. Significant deforestation and development on the saturated flood plains across Toronto could not contain the over 200mm of rain that fell in 24 hours which resulted in many rivers overtopping their banks, with water levels rising by up to 8 metres. The Humber River, in particular, became a deadly torrent through the city, washing away roads, bridges, and entire homes. Overall, the storm dumped 181.6 billion litres of rain on the City of Toronto.

In total, 81 people lost their lives from Hurricane Hazel, mostly in the west end of Toronto. Across Southern Ontario, approximately 4000 families lost their homes, 1868 of which were in Toronto. Raymore Drive was hit particularly hard with 14 homes being washed away, killing 35 people. Fortunately, the death toll could have been much worse if not for the heroics displayed by many police officers, firefighters, and ordinary citizens who worked tirelessly trying to save those who became stranded. Sadly, five firefighters lost their lives when trying to rescue trapped motorists.

The effects of Hurricane Hazel were felt beyond Toronto. Significant flooding was experienced in communities as far west as London and north to Georgian Bay as the storm progressed northwards to James Bay, where it eventually dissipated.

Members of the Harbour Patrol Rescue a man from the Don River, courtesy of the Canadian Encyclopedia.

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In the aftermath of Hurricane Hazel, many changes were made to conservation authorities across Ontario, especially in the Greater Toronto Area.

An intensive plan was put in place by conservation authorities, along with both the municipal and provincial governments, for flood control and water conservation in order to limit loss of life and property from future extreme weather events. As part of this plan, flood control facilities were inspected, upgraded, or built alongside additional dams and reservoirs to control and monitor water levels. A flood forecasting and warning system was also a large component to the plan.

An amendment was made to the Conservation Authorities Act that allowed individual conservation authorities to obtain and control vulnerable areas to be used for conservation and recreation. As a result, many homes were cleared from low-lying areas and greenbelts were created within watersheds. This included the expropriation of most remaining properties on Raymore Drive by the Metro Toronto and Region Conservation Authority which was turned into parkland, now called Raymore Park.

As we look back on the anniversary of this tragic event, we want to remember those that were lost and all of the efforts that have been put in place since to prepare for future extreme weather events. The City of Toronto has seen many flooding events since Hurricane Hazel, and it will continue to do so for many year. However, major floods in 2013 and more recently in 2024 show that more work still needs to be done.

The G. Ross Lord Dam, One of the Many Flood Control Measures in Place Across Toronto, Courtesy of the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority.

Sources:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/hurdat2.html

https://www.heritage-matters.ca/articles/hurricane-hazel-50-years-later

https://www.heritagetrust.on.ca/pages/programs/provincial-plaque-program/provincial-plaque-background-papers/hurricane-hazel

https://www.hurricanehazel.ca/ssi/evolution_flood_control.shtml

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/toronto-feature-hurricane-hazel

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/hurricane-hazel

https://www.trca.ca/news/hurricane-hazel-70-years/

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Oct151954EventReview

Post-Thanksgiving Cool Down to Bring Season’s First Flurries to Parts of Southern Ontario on Tuesday

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The chill is definitely in the air following the Thanksgiving long weekend across Ontario, with overnight lows hovering around the freezing mark in many areas over the past few days.

This is a sharp change from the mild autumn weather we experienced throughout September, which has led to a noticeable delay in the changing of the leaves. While the trees are still taking their time to show off their fall colors, other signs of the season are on the way over the next few days.

Most notably, the combination of colder air and the warm waters of the Great Lakes will create ideal conditions for lake-effect precipitation to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While most areas will see lake-effect rain, it could get cold enough along the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, south of Georgian Bay, for some wet flurries to appear on Tuesday.

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Additional precipitation is expected to move into Northeastern and Central Ontario by late Tuesday. As temperatures approach the freezing mark, some areas may see a transition to wet snow. However, significant accumulation is not expected, as the snow will likely melt almost immediately due to the warm ground, which remains above freezing.

For those who miss the milder weather, there’s no need to worry—there’s a warm-up on the way as we head into the weekend and early next week. Some areas could see daytime highs reaching the upper teens or even low twenties, which is well above the seasonal average for this time of year.

PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

On Tuesday morning, most places will wake up to temperatures near the freezing mark, but daytime highs are expected to gradually rise into the mid to upper single digits. The higher elevations around Orangeville and Shelburne may struggle to climb above freezing, holding onto near-freezing temperatures throughout the day.

Lake-effect rain is expected to continue south of Georgian Bay throughout Tuesday, and some wet snow could mix in over the Dundalk Highlands during the day. This potential for flurries will be highly localized to the higher elevations between Owen Sound and Orangeville, while areas outside this region are likely to avoid the season’s first snowfall for now.

With temperatures hovering near or just above the freezing mark, significant accumulation is unlikely, as most of the snow will melt upon contact with the ground. However, there is a chance of a few wet, slushy centimeters in very localized areas.

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PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING TUESDAY night - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As we move into the evening and overnight hours, temperatures will again drop to near the freezing mark across Central, Eastern, and Northeastern Ontario. With scattered showers arriving from the north and east, there is a possibility that some of this precipitation could fall as wet flurries overnight and into early Wednesday morning.

Accumulation will remain a challenge due to the relatively warm ground. However, those in Huntsville, Algonquin Park, and the Ottawa Valley might catch a glimpse of their first snowflakes of the season. The chance of snow will diminish by late Wednesday morning as lake-effect precipitation weakens and any lingering showers move out of the region.

As mentioned earlier, we’re expecting a gradual warm-up for the rest of the week, though the mornings will still start off chilly, with temperatures in the single digits. The real warming trend will kick off on Friday, with temperatures climbing into the upper teens and possibly even approaching the low twenties in Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe.

This milder weather is expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week.

Storm of the Century for Tampa and Central Florida; Catastrophic Hurricane Milton Will Make Landfall Tonight

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Satellite Image of Hurricane Milton from October 8th at 10:30PM EDT, Courtesy of Colorado State University.

Hurricane Milton managed to maintain its status as a Category 5 hurricane overnight and has since been downgraded to a still catastrophic Category 4. Milton has finally started to encounter some shear that began to change its structure and will cause the storm to weaken. The shear is expected to increase throughout the day, weakening the storm further, but it is still expected to be a powerful Category 3 hurricane upon landfall later tonight. Current projections have landfall occurring at around 1am with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (201 km/h).

There have also been continued southward wobbles in Milton's track and this has pushed the potential landfall location further south. The margin of error is approximately 20 miles at this point, so the exact location of landfall is starting to become a bit clearer. Regardless of where the storm eventually makes landfall, the shear will cause the storm to grow and the devastating impacts will be widespread. This is the first hurricane to directly impact the Tampa area since 1921, making Hurricane Milton the storm of the century for the region.

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Reflectivity from the Tampa Bay Radar Station on October 9th at 11:40AM EDT.

The eye of the hurricane is now visible on both Key West and Tampa Bay radars and we've already begun to see significant rainfall moving inland in Central Florida. Current rainfall totals for the Tampa area are in the 1-2 inch (25-50mm) range, but with the heaviest bands of rain just starting to come ashore, these numbers will jump.

Widespread flooding remains a major concern across central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula, with localized rainfall totals potentially reaching 18 inches (457 mm). These heavy rains will push far inland and elevate the risk of flash flooding over a large part of the state, especially in low-lying areas and along rivers. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to forecast a High Risk (their highest level) for flash flooding across a large swath of Central Florida that includes Tampa and Orlando.

We've also seen several tornado warnings and confirmed tornadoes south of Lake Okeechobee. Tornadoes are a major threat when hurricanes approach shore from the many imbedded thunderstorms and the potential for more tornadoes will continue into the afternoon and expanding northward with the overall motion of the hurricane.

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Tropical storm-force winds are started to make their way over land with the rain this morning and they will gradually spread further inland throughout the day as the storm makes its final approach and the increased shear causes the wind field to grow. The area of hurricane-force winds will also become larger, but since they are found closer to the eye, they won’t be felt inland until closer to landfall.

The continued southern shift that's been seen in Hurricane Milton's track has also shifted where the greatest storm surge is expected. The greatest peak storm surge of 10-15ft is now forecasted along the coast from Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande. The forecast for Tampa Bay has been downgraded to 8-12ft, but this is still a life-threatening amount of water.

With a little over 12 hours until landfall, there is very little time left for those in the path to make their final preparations. If you or your loved ones are in the storm’s potential path, it’s crucial to stay informed, heed evacuation orders if they are issued, and follow any directives from local emergency personnel. We will continue to provide updates throughout the day as Milton makes its final approach.

Peak Storm Surge Forecast in FLorida for Hurricane Milton, Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.

Florida Braces for Catastrophic Landfall of Hurricane Milton; Potential to be the Most Destructive Hurricane on Record for the State

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Satellite Image of Hurricane Milton from October 8th at 2:21PM EDT, Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.

Following its almost unprecedented intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 hurricane and becoming the 5th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, Milton’s development was stunted overnight while undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. During this, the inner structure of the storm changed significant, with the eye filling in and the wind field expanding. The peak winds fluctuated and Milton was downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane this morning.

With the eyewall replacement complete, the eye cleared and shrunk in size, marking the possibility it might regain some of its slight loss in strength and achieve Category 5 status once again. The latest Hurricane Hunter recon mission estimates that Milton is just shy of the threshold of becoming a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h). However, continued structural changes over the next 24 hours will result in further fluctuations in strength.

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Forecast Track for Hurricane Milton, Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Milton continues its offshore passage of the Yucatan Peninsula, where it has brought significant damage to coastal areas. The storm has already made its predicted turn and begun moving northeastward into the heart of the Gulf, where it will increase its forward speed bringing it into Central Florida.

There has been very little change in the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), aside from the possibility that landfall might occur just south of Tampa Bay. This slight change is of little consequence because even at 24-36 hours out, the NHC forecasts have of a margin of error 60-70 miles so it is still difficult to pinpoint exactly where landfall will occur. Furthermore, Milton and its wind field are still projected to grow in size as the storm encounters vertical wind shear ahead of landfall. The area of hurricane and tropical storm-force winds is expected to double in size, spreading the threats of life-threatening surge, heavy rains, and destructive winds far beyond the forecast cone.

The NHC’s storm surge forecast for the Anclote River to Englewood, including Tampa Bay, has been increased to 10-15ft and could be double that from Hurricane Helene two weeks ago. With the area still recovering from storm surge damage that resulted from Helene, large piles of debris can be found all along the coast, posing a very unique threat. Not only will some of the debris get washed back inland with the storm surge, the hurricane-force winds could easily turn these remnants into dangerous projectiles when the storm hits.

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In addition to the threat of storm surge and intense winds, central and northern portions of Florida Peninsula could see 5-12 inches (127-305 mm) of rainfall, with localized totals potentially reaching 18 inches (457 mm). These heavy rains will push far inland and elevate the risk of flash flooding over a large part of the state, especially in low-lying areas and along rivers. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a High Risk (their highest level) for flash flooding across a large swath of Central Florida that includes Tampa and Orlando.

After landfall, Milton is expected to track across the Florida Peninsula and emerge into the Atlantic, where it will briefly remain a hurricane before transitioning into a post-tropical storm. However, the impacts to Florida and surrounding areas will be significant long before the storm weakens.

Flash Flood Forecast in Florida from Hurricane Milton, Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.

Milton’s rapid intensification has been fuelled by its movement through an area of deep, warm waters, with sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C, providing ample energy for the storm. Additionally, low wind shear in the region has allowed the hurricane to strengthen unhindered. Thankfully, we began to see that development stall overnight with the eyewall replacement cycle. As it continues to approach Florida, Milton is still expected to encounter an area of shear that will weaken it further, but it will still be a powerful hurricane at landfall. The NHC forecast maintains that it could make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (201 km/h). However, they have stated that this projection is on the high end of model guidances so there is the possibility of an adjustment to this forecast in the next 24 hours.

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The entire Florida Peninsula is now under a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning. Residents in the projected path are being urged to finalize their preparations while there is still time. Tropical storm-force winds are expected to arrive as early as tomorrow morning, with landfall projected overnight Wednesday. While uncertainty remains regarding Milton’s exact landfall location and strength, the potential for widespread heavy rainfall, destructive winds, and life-threatening storm surges is significant.

If you or your loved ones are in the storm’s potential path, it’s crucial to stay informed, heed evacuation orders if they are issued, and follow any directives from local emergency personnel. We will continue to provide updates as more information becomes available, so stay tuned. Your safety is the priority as Hurricane Milton approaches.

Forecast Track and Intensity of Hurricane Milton with Sea Surface Temperatures, courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Milton Rapidly Intensifies into Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane; Threatens to Slam into Tampa Bay, Florida on Wednesday

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Satellite Image of Hurricane Milton from October 7th at 11:59am EDT, Courtesy of Colorado state university.

In a remarkable and alarming turn of events, Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane within just 18 hours, marking one of the most rapid intensifications on record in the Atlantic. Only Hurricane Wilma intensified faster, strengthening in just 12 hours back in 2005. Such an extreme escalation underscores the potential danger of this storm as it continues to grow in strength.

Data gathered by Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier this morning estimated that Milton’s maximum sustained winds were around 160 mph (257 km/h), making it the second hurricane this season to reach Category 5 intensity, following Hurricane Beryl in July. However, more recent data now indicates that Milton’s winds have increased even further to 175 mph (282 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 911mb, making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Dorian in 2019. These numbers highlight just how powerful Milton has become in such a short span of time.

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Forecast Track for Hurricane Milton, Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.

Interestingly, Hurricane Milton did not follow its projected almost directly eastward path overnight. Instead, the storm has wobbled southeastward, bringing it much closer to the Northern Yucatan Peninsula than initially forecasted. As a result, Mexican authorities have issued Hurricane Warnings, anticipating hurricane-force winds to impact the region today. The shift in track has led to a stronger storm approaching the Yucatan, further complicating forecasts and increasing the potential for damage along the coast.

This unexpected change in Milton’s path has also influenced weather models and the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Despite continued uncertainty regarding Milton’s precise path, the storm is now forecasted to make landfall further south than originally thought, with the Tampa Bay area now directly in its sights. The NHC predicts that Milton will curve northeastward later this afternoon, with an increase in forward speed, leading to a likely landfall on Wednesday evening.

Unfortunately, this is a worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay, as the region is still recovering from storm surge damage caused by Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago. Now, with Milton’s stronger winds and greater storm surge, the area faces an even more dangerous situation. With plenty of loose debris still scattered along the coast, the hurricane-force winds could easily turn these remnants into dangerous projectiles when the storm hits. The NHC is currently forecasting storm surges of 8-12 feet from the Anclote River to Englewood, including Tampa Bay itself. Due to Milton’s angle of approach, the surge could be more severe than what was seen with Helene, posing an even greater threat to life and property.

In addition to storm surge concerns, much of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys could see 5-10 inches (127-254 mm) of rainfall, with localized totals potentially reaching 15 inches (381 mm). These heavy rains elevate the risk of flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas and along rivers.

After landfall, Milton is expected to track across the Florida Peninsula and emerge into the Atlantic, where it will briefly remain a hurricane before transitioning into a post-tropical storm. However, the impacts to Florida and surrounding areas will be significant long before the storm weakens.

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Peak Storm Surge Forecast in FLorida for Hurricane Milton, Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.

Milton’s rapid intensification has been fuelled by its movement through an area of deep, warm waters, with sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C, providing ample energy for the storm. Additionally, low wind shear in the region has allowed the hurricane to strengthen unhindered. However, as Milton moves further north, it is expected to encounter stronger wind shear, which should start to weaken the storm after about 24 hours as a Category 5 hurricane. Though this shear may reduce Milton’s intensity, it could also cause the storm to expand, spreading its damaging winds and heavy rains over a much larger area. The current NHC forecast suggests that Milton could make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (201 km/h).

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States of Emergency remain in place for much of Florida, with the exception of the Panhandle. Residents in the projected path are being urged to finalize their preparations while there is still time. Tropical storm-force winds are expected to arrive as early as overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning, with landfall projected for Wednesday evening. While uncertainty remains regarding Milton’s exact landfall location and strength, the potential for widespread heavy rainfall, destructive winds, and life-threatening storm surges is significant.

If you or your loved ones are in the storm’s potential path, it’s crucial to stay informed, heed evacuation orders if they are issued, and follow any directives from local emergency personnel. We will continue to provide updates as more information becomes available, so stay tuned. Your safety is the priority as Hurricane Milton approaches.

Forecast Track and Intensity of Hurricane Milton with Sea Surface Temperatures, courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Florida Braces for Second Major Hurricane Hit in Less Than Two Weeks With Milton; Tampa Area Could See Life-Threatening Storm Surge

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Forecast Track for Hurricane Milton, Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.

After monitoring a disturbance in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for over a week, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirmed the formation of Tropical Depression 14 in the Western Gulf, which quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton by yesterday afternoon. Since then, Milton has continued to strengthen, with both satellite and aircraft reconnaissance data indicating a sharp increase in intensity. As of the latest update, Milton has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (129 km/h).

What makes this storm particularly concerning is its projected path, which takes it directly toward the Tampa Bay area. If this forecast holds, Milton will be the first hurricane to make landfall in Tampa since 1996. However, what’s raising even more alarm is the potential for a greater storm surge in the Tampa area than what was seen with Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago. Milton’s angle of approach is expected to produce a more severe storm surge in the region, which could compound the impact.

While the formation of hurricanes in the Western Gulf of Mexico isn’t particularly common, it’s certainly not unprecedented, especially given the exceptionally warm water temperatures the basin is currently experiencing. These conditions are ripe for storms like Milton to intensify quickly.

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As of now, Hurricane Milton is forecasted to track almost due east today and tomorrow before turning northeast late on Monday. It will remain offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, but close enough to prompt Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the region. The storm is expected to pick up speed on Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing along its northeastward track, as it heads toward Florida, with landfall anticipated late Wednesday morning or early afternoon.

There’s still significant uncertainty about the storm’s exact path, especially where it will ultimately make landfall in Florida. Current model forecasts, along with the official NHC projection, suggest that Milton will make landfall north of Tampa, near the Crystal River area. If this track holds, it may spare Tampa from the worst of Milton’s winds, but the region will still face heavy rainfall and significant storm surge. Early estimates suggest up to 6 inches (152 mm) of rain and a storm surge that could reach as high as 10 feet in Tampa Bay.

It’s important to note that track forecasts this far out still have a margin of error of around 100 miles, so these projections could change over the coming days. As more data comes in, the forecast will likely be refined.

Following making landfall, Milton is expect to cross the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic Ocean, where it will continue briefly as a hurricane before transitioning into a post-tropical storm.

Model Forecast Tracks for hurricane Milton, Courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Milton is currently moving through an area of warm, deep waters, with sea surface temperatures above 28°C, which are providing ample fuel for the storm’s rapid intensification. Additionally, there is very little wind shear in the area, allowing Milton to strengthen even faster. Meteorologists are drawing comparisons to the rapid intensification recently seen with Hurricane Helene.

By late Monday, Hurricane Milton is expected to become a Major Hurricane, reaching at least Category 3 status. There’s still some disagreement among weather models about how strong Milton will ultimately become. Regional hurricane models are predicting a more intense storm than global models, with some even forecasting Milton to briefly reach Category 5 strength. However, these models also show that the storm may weaken slightly before making landfall, thanks to increasing shear near the Florida coastline. This shear, while helping to weaken Milton, could also cause the storm to grow in size, spreading its impacts over a much larger area.

The current NHC forecast estimates Milton will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds in excess of 111 mph (178 km/h). However, the NHC has acknowledged that their forecast may be conservative, given the model predictions.

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In anticipation of Milton’s arrival, States of Emergency have already been declared across most of Florida, with the exception of the Panhandle. Residents in the projected path are being urged to begin making preparations, as storm surge and hurricane watches are expected to be issued later today and overnight. Emergency officials are warning that this could be Florida’s largest evacuation effort since 2017, with millions potentially in the storm’s path.

Hurricane Milton’s landfall is still a few days away, providing enough time for residents in the affected areas to make necessary preparations. While Milton’s exact track and strength at landfall remain uncertain, the threat of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and life-threatening storm surges is significant.

If you or your loved ones are in the storm’s potential path, it’s crucial to stay informed, heed evacuation orders if they are issued, and follow any directives from local emergency personnel. We will continue to provide updates as more information becomes available, so stay tuned. Your safety is the priority as Hurricane Milton approaches.

Forecast Intensity from different models for hurricane Milton, courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Ontario’s Potential Last Severe Thunderstorm Risk of the Year on Sunday to Usher In a Chilly Start This Week

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NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Get ready, Ontario! While we've been enjoying a relatively mild start to fall, aside from a few exceptions, a significant change is on the horizon. As we head into the first weekend of October, it looks like Mother Nature is gearing up to bring in more seasonally appropriate weather. But, true to Ontario's reputation, it won’t happen quietly.

The weekend so far has seen relatively calm weather across Southern Ontario, with many areas enjoying pleasant temperatures in the mid to upper teens. This marks a shift from the consistent 20°C-plus days we experienced through much of September. While it's been nice, things are about to take a turn. We’re expecting a sudden surge of warmer air on Sunday, and that warm-up could set the stage for some potentially severe weather as we move into the morning and afternoon hours.

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This brief October "heatwave" could push temperatures close to 20-25°C in Deep Southwestern Ontario and across the Golden Horseshoe. For those of you in Central and Eastern Ontario, however, don’t expect to feel much of this warmth. A stubborn pocket of cooler air is going to dig in, holding temperatures in the mid-teens across that region, keeping it much cooler than the rest of the province.

Unfortunately, this warm-up isn’t all sunshine. It will come hand-in-hand with some unsettled weather. A potentially strong line of thunderstorms is expected to cut across Southern Ontario on Sunday morning and afternoon. The latest data suggests that this line of storms could develop over Lake Huron by late morning and track eastward, making its way onshore just east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

SIMULATED RADAR @ 12 PM ON SUNDAY - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

There is still some uncertainty regarding the intensity of these storms. The early timing and limited warm air this far north may impact how severe the storms get. However, the atmosphere seems primed to support at least a marginal severe threat. We could see strong wind gusts, potentially reaching 90 km/h, and even hail up to quarter-size. There’s also a possibility that the risk level could be upgraded to slight by morning if conditions appear more favourable.

There is a low tornado risk—while it can’t be completely ruled out, the messy, linear storm structure might limit the chances of an isolated tornado forming. Still, it’s always better to stay cautious when severe weather is in the forecast.

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This line of storms will continue pushing eastward through the Golden Horseshoe and areas east of Lake Simcoe by early to mid-afternoon. There’s potential for some intensification as the day progresses, or we could even see additional storms developing in the wake of the initial line. The zone between Bancroft, Peterborough, and Durham Region, and possibly stretching into Niagara, seems to have the highest risk for severe weather, should the conditions align more favourably.

By the late afternoon, the bulk of the storm activity will shift into the United States, where further severe weather could develop over Upstate New York and Pennsylvania. As a result, the storm threat across Southern Ontario should rapidly diminish by early evening. Given the time of year and the fact that cooler weather is set to follow, it’s quite possible that this could be our last widespread severe weather event of the season.

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ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE @ 7 AM ON TUESDAY - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Speaking of cooler weather, expect a noticeable drop in temperatures as we start the new week. By Monday and Tuesday, much of Southern Ontario will feel the chill, with daytime highs struggling to climb into the mid-teens.

Central and Eastern Ontario could be even cooler, with some areas potentially stuck in single-digit highs. The nights will be even colder. On both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, some regions in Central and Eastern Ontario could dip below 0°C, bringing a risk of frost for a large portion of Southern Ontario.

At this point, we’re not expecting s-word to enter the forecast this week at least in Southern Ontario, but the cold snap will certainly make it feel like fall has truly arrived. So, if you’ve been holding off on packing away your summer wardrobe, it might be time to start thinking about those cozy sweaters and heavier jackets.

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LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING SUNDAY - NOTE: THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE! (MAP FROM WEATHERBELL)

However, there might be some good news as we look ahead to the Thanksgiving long weekend. Early indications suggest a potential return of warmer air by next weekend, bringing with it another temperature boost. Some models hint at temperatures pushing 20°C once again in parts of Southern Ontario, which would be quite a surprise for Thanksgiving, given that we’ve seen flurries on the holiday in previous years!

It’s still too early to say for sure, though, as the forecast could change over the coming days. But for now, we’ll remain optimistic about the possibility of a pleasant, mild Thanksgiving weekend. As always, we’ll be monitoring the situation closely and will provide a more detailed Thanksgiving preview later this week.