February 17, 2026

Ice Storm Threat for Hamilton and Kitchener as Toronto and Barrie Face Snow and Icy Blast on Wednesday

February 17, 2026/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

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A significant and potentially high-impact winter storm is set to take aim at Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday, bringing a messy and complicated mix of freezing rain, ice pellets and heavy snow.

This is shaping up to be a true multi-hazard event, and depending on your exact location, the impacts could look very different. Some communities will be dealing with hours of relentless freezing rain and dangerous ice buildup, while others will see bursts of heavy snow mixed with ice pellets.

While the specific precipitation type will vary substantially from region to region, the one thing that is nearly universal is the timing. This storm is expected to peak during the height of both the morning and afternoon commutes. That alone will be enough to create widespread travel headaches across highways, city streets and rural roads alike.

The main story with this system will likely be the corridor of significant freezing rain focused south and west of the Greater Toronto Area. This includes Hamilton through Kitchener and Guelph, along with Perth, Wellington, Dufferin, Grey and Bruce counties. These areas are in the prime zone for prolonged icing.

Six to twelve hours of freezing rain beginning in the early morning and continuing into the late afternoon will allow ice to quickly accumulate on untreated roads, sidewalks, driveways, trees and power lines. In some communities, total ice accretion could approach 10 to 15 mm. That is more than enough to create dangerous travel conditions and begin causing infrastructure issues.

To make matters worse, wind gusts are expected to range from 40 to 60 km/h, with some areas potentially seeing localized gusts of 70 to 80 km/h through the morning and afternoon. When you combine strong winds with heavy ice accumulation, the risk of power outages increases significantly. Ice weighing down tree branches and power lines does not need much additional force to snap, and scattered to potentially widespread outages are possible in the hardest hit areas.

Unlike some freezing rain events where temperatures eventually rise above zero and help melt some of the ice, this system is not expected to feature a meaningful warmup. Cold air at the surface is likely to remain locked in place until at least Thursday, and possibly even into Friday. That means once surfaces are coated in ice, they may stay that way for an extended period of time. This could prolong power outages and keep travel conditions poor well beyond Wednesday.

Freezing drizzle may also linger through the later part of Wednesday and into early Thursday across parts of Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. Even light drizzle can add a fresh glaze on top of existing ice, further worsening conditions and increasing the risk of slips, falls and vehicle collisions.

Further north and east, from around Lake Simcoe through Toronto, Peterborough and into Kingston, the focus shifts more toward a messy mix of ice pellets (sleet) and snow. While snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, generally in the 5 to 15 cm range, the presence of ice pellets and occasional freezing rain will still make for slick and hazardous conditions.

Based on the latest model guidance, the first band of precipitation will arrive in Deep Southwestern Ontario during the early morning hours. Areas like Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham will be well above freezing, so precipitation here will fall mainly as rain.

As that precipitation spreads northeast through the morning, it will encounter below-freezing temperatures at the surface. That is where the transition to freezing rain will occur, with rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces. This swath of freezing rain is expected to expand as additional bands of precipitation move in through the mid-morning hours.

Conditions are likely to deteriorate quickly around Hamilton, Kitchener, Hanover and Owen Sound during the mid to late morning as steady freezing rain sets in. Roads may become icy in a short period of time, especially on untreated surfaces and elevated roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

By late morning, the freezing rain may edge into portions of Peel and York Region, along with Toronto. However, there remains some uncertainty with the temperature profile in these areas. It may begin as freezing rain but could quickly mix with or change to ice pellets and snow as colder air near Lake Simcoe resists the push of warmer air aloft. Even a few hours of freezing rain in the GTA during rush hour would be enough to cause significant delays and collisions.

By around noon, snow and ice pellets are expected to reach Barrie, with that messy mix extending into Toronto. Meanwhile, freezing rain will likely remain steady and relentless from Hamilton through Kitchener and Hanover, continuing to build ice on trees and power lines.

One key factor we will be watching closely is the potential for temperatures to actually drop slightly through the morning in some areas. If that happens, communities around Niagara and into London could briefly dip below freezing and transition from rain to freezing rain, increasing the icing risk in those areas.

Through the early afternoon, the corridor of freezing rain is expected to remain largely locked in place. By this time, ice accretion on many surfaces could be reaching significant or even crippling levels in the hardest hit communities.

Additional bursts of moderate to heavy precipitation during the afternoon could further add weight to already stressed trees and power lines. If damage is going to occur, it is most likely to ramp up during this period.

There is some good news as precipitation should begin to clear out of Southwestern Ontario by mid-afternoon. Areas that experience the worst of the freezing rain should see it taper off by late afternoon, although the impacts will linger.

By mid-afternoon, the leading edge of the heavier snow is expected to reach Orillia and Peterborough. There remains some uncertainty on how far north and east the steadier snow will extend before weakening. Some model guidance pushes it as far as Muskoka and Kingston, while others keep the bulk of it closer to Lake Simcoe.

Heavy snow and ice pellets with localized blowing snow will continue through the afternoon in these areas. Closer to Toronto, warmer air aloft may briefly push back in, potentially causing a switch back to freezing rain late in the event. Unfortunately, this could line up closely with the afternoon commute, leading to significant travel disruptions.

If possible, it would be wise to delay travel during both the morning and afternoon peak periods. Icy roads, reduced visibility and the potential for downed branches or power lines could make conditions dangerous in a hurry.

As the system weakens and begins to break apart over Central Ontario during the early evening, we may still see pockets of patchy freezing drizzle develop around the Golden Horseshoe and into Southwestern Ontario.

This includes many of the same areas hardest hit by earlier freezing rain. Even light drizzle could add additional ice and prolong impacts into Thursday morning, increasing the risk of school bus cancellations for a second consecutive day.

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When it comes to snowfall totals, there is some uncertainty due to the mixing with ice pellets. The heaviest swath of snow is most likely to extend from the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula through Simcoe County and Southern Muskoka into the eastern GTA, Peterborough and Belleville area.

We are forecasting a general 5 to 15 cm for Barrie, Orillia, Gravenhurst, Lindsay, Port Perry, Peterborough, Cobourg, Belleville and Picton, with localized totals up to 20 cm possible if the system overperforms.

A similar 5 to 15 cm is forecast for Collingwood, Angus, Vaughan, Bradford, Newmarket, Toronto, Pickering and Oshawa. However, more mixing with ice pellets is expected in this zone, so totals may trend closer to the lower end of that range in many communities.

For Parry Sound, Huntsville, Haliburton, Tweed and Kingston, snowfall totals are expected to range from 2 to 5 cm. There is also a chance that some of these areas see very little accumulation if the storm weakens faster than currently projected.

Less than 2 cm of snow is expected across much of Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley.

To the west, snowfall totals will decrease as ice pellets and freezing rain become the more dominant precipitation types. We are forecasting 2 to 5 cm for Wiarton, Shelburne, Orangeville and Oakville, with less than 2 cm further southwest.

Turning back to the freezing rain threat, the worst impacts are expected west of the Golden Horseshoe along the Hamilton through Kitchener to Owen Sound corridor.

Highest ice accretion is likely in Hamilton, Burlington, Cambridge, Kitchener, Listowel, Minto, Wingham, Mildmay, Port Elgin and Hanover. Ice storm conditions are possible here with 6 to 12 mm of icing, and localized pockets of 15 mm cannot be ruled out.

A zone including Owen Sound, Chatsworth, Arthur, Fergus and Guelph is also at risk for 6 to 12 mm of freezing rain accretion. There is some uncertainty here due to the potential mixing with ice pellets at times, especially late morning into early afternoon, which could limit totals somewhat.

Lower amounts of freezing rain are expected both to the southwest and northeast for different reasons.

To the southwest, more rain will mix in, limiting the duration of icing. Niagara on the Lake, St. Catharines, Woodstock, Clinton and Kincardine could see 2 to 6 mm of freezing rain, mainly during the latter part of the event as temperatures gradually slip below freezing.

Southern Niagara through Simcoe, Tillsonburg, London, Lucan and Goderich can expect less than 2 mm of freezing rain, with precipitation falling mainly as rain.

To the northeast, mixing with ice pellets will limit freezing rain totals. That includes Wiarton, Meaford, Orangeville, Brampton, Oakville, Mississauga and Toronto, where around 2 to 6 mm of freezing rain accretion is expected.

Less than 2 mm of icing is forecast for York Region and into Simcoe County, where snow and ice pellets should be the main precipitation types.

This is a complex and high-impact storm with significant variation over relatively short distances. We will continue to fine-tune these details as new data comes in, but now is the time to prepare for difficult travel, possible power outages and extended icy conditions across parts of Southern Ontario.

February 17, 2026

Significant Winter Storm for Toronto, Hamilton, Barrie, Kitchener & Peterborough Area on Wednesday Threatens Travel and Power Outages

February 17, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A mid-week winter storm is on the horizon for Southern Ontario and threatens to bring a buffet of winter weather hazards starting Wednesday morning. This system will feature everything from a potential ice storm risk, raising the threat of widespread and prolonged power outages, to a quick blast of heavy snow with accumulations of up to 25 cm in some areas.

Significant impact on travel is likely, with the worst conditions expected to occur at the height of the morning rush hours across the Greater Toronto Area, Barrie, Kitchener and Hamilton. Roads could become very icy, snow covered, and hazardous in a relatively short period of time, especially where freezing rain and ice pellets are involved.

Widespread school bus cancellations are likely on Wednesday for many boards within the hardest hit regions. Even if your exact area misses the worst of the ice or snow, nearby regions could still see severe conditions that impact school buses.

While we are now less than 48 hours from the expected start of this winter storm, there are still several forms of divergence in the different weather models. That disagreement even extends to when the impacts are forecast to begin on Wednesday morning, which is a key detail for both the morning commute and school operations.

The HRRR (American) model shows a leading band of precipitation moving into areas from Grey Bruce through Lake Simcoe and into the Greater Toronto Area as early as 4 to 6 AM on Wednesday. This would be a very early start and would catch many people just as they are waking up and preparing to head out the door.

Temperatures are generally expected to be several degrees below freezing at the surface, with above-freezing temperatures aloft in the upper air. This setup allows for freezing rain to be the likely predominant precipitation type in that first band.

If that scenario does occur, it could lead to icy conditions developing quickly just in time for the morning commute and almost certainly mean school bus cancellations in many of these areas. Even a thin glaze of ice can be enough to cause vehicles to lose traction and make sidewalks and driveways extremely slippery.

That warm air aloft is likely to hit a wall somewhere around a line from Orillia to Kingston. Any precipitation that falls north of this approximate boundary will likely come down mainly in the form of snow instead of freezing rain, which will create a sharp transition zone over a relatively short distance.

Other models, however, do not show this first leading band of precipitation. Instead, they delay the onset of the weather until the arrival of the main precipitation band pushing in through Southwestern Ontario during the mid to late morning hours. This difference in timing and structure is one of the main reasons there is still some uncertainty in how the day will unfold.

By the mid-morning hours, a band of sleet and ice pellets is expected to extend from Barrie and Orillia through Peterborough and into Belleville.

This band of mixed precipitation is likely to gradually transition to heavy snow by the late morning or early afternoon as colder air in the upper levels is able to push further south. Once that colder air fully penetrates the upper levels, snowfall rates could increase quickly with less ice pellets mixed in.

There is some uncertainty on how long the warmer air aloft can hold on, and this will have a direct impact on the overall snowfall totals. The longer it can persist, the more ice pellets there will be, which tends to suppress the amount of precipitation that falls as fluffy, accumulating snow.

The battle zone is expected to be centered around a corridor from the Bruce Peninsula through the Dundalk Highlands and south into Peel and York Region along with the City of Toronto. In this corridor, we are expecting a few hours of freezing rain which will then transition to ice pellets sometime in the mid to late morning.

Again, there is some disagreement in the models on the temperature dynamics and the exact timing of when the ice pellets will start to mix in. The faster the switch over to ice pellets, the less pure icing that will be able to occur, which would slightly reduce the risk of serious ice buildup but still maintain hazardous travel.

Further to the south and west, an area of very heavy freezing rain is expected to persist throughout much of the late morning hours and continue into the afternoon. This zone includes Hamilton through Kitchener and into portions of Perth, Wellington, Grey and Bruce counties.

Significant icing is expected here, with accretion rapidly occurring on untreated roads, sidewalks, tree branches and power lines. The combination of a cold surface, steady freezing rain and heavier precipitation rates will allow ice to build up quickly and efficiently.

Regular rain is expected for Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia into London, the Lake Huron shoreline and into the Niagara region. In these areas, the surface warm-up should be substantial enough to avoid a prolonged freezing rain event.

Some brief freezing rain is possible for London and the Niagara region during the mid to late morning, but it should transition to regular rain after an hour or two as temperatures rise above the freezing mark at the surface. Even so, that short window could still lead to some localized slick spots before the changeover.

Another factor at play that will enhance the impact of this winter storm is the development of stronger wind gusts through the mid to late morning on Wednesday. These winds will overlap in both time and space with the heaviest precipitation for many areas.

Current data suggests the wind gusts could reach 40 to 60 km/h in the same regions that are seeing heavy precipitation from the winter storm. This combination of wind and wintry precipitation is what elevates the risk of more serious and prolonged impacts.

For those getting ice pellets and snow, the primary impact from the wind will be reduced visibility from blowing snow from the Bruce Peninsula through Simcoe County, Peterborough and Belleville. Localized whiteout conditions will be possible at times, especially in more open and rural stretches of highway.

More significantly though, this wind may combine with the heavy icing from the freezing rain. The ice load on power lines and tree branches will make them more susceptible to being blown down by the stronger wind gusts.

That increases the likelihood of power outages from Hamilton through Kitchener, Guelph and into the Hanover and Owen Sound area. In some cases, outages could last many hours or even longer if damage to infrastructure is widespread and crews have difficulty accessing affected areas due to road conditions.

Poor conditions will continue past noon into the early afternoon with a band of steady heavy snow stretching from Simcoe County through Peterborough and into Kingston. Travel in this corridor could be especially difficult as snowfall accumulates on top of any earlier ice or slush.

The leading edge of this band of snow is a little unclear, as some models have it continuing to expand northward into Central and Eastern Ontario. In that scenario, a swath of heavy snow could extend from Sudbury down into Muskoka and through Bancroft.

Other models keep the snow more localized to the corridor from Barrie through Peterborough and into Kingston. This difference will play a big role in determining which communities end up closer to the higher end of snowfall totals.

Patchy freezing rain and ice pellets will also continue across the Golden Horseshoe, although this is expected to gradually clear out during the first few hours of the afternoon. The precipitation type may still flip back and forth for a time as the temperature profile continues to evolve.

This may switch over to heavy snow, especially around Toronto, York and Durham Region by the early afternoon. That could bring a quick blast of heavy snow on top of the earlier icing and several hours of ice pellets, which would be enough to worsen road conditions again significantly.

This snow is expected to clear out by the late afternoon as it slowly breaks apart while moving deeper into Eastern Ontario. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east, but roads could remain messy into the evening even after the snow has ended.

Ottawa and areas around the Quebec border may see some light snow during the afternoon as this system continues to break apart. However, accumulation here should generally stay under 5 cm, which is on the lower side compared to areas further south and west.

**ESTIMATED TEMP** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

This winter storm will also create quite a temperature contrast across Southern Ontario. While Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into areas around Lake Simcoe, the Dundalk Highlands, Kitchener and the GTA, will be firmly below freezing throughout the duration of this system, other regions will have a completely different experience.

The same cannot be said for Deep Southwestern Ontario, which is likely to see very warm air move in through the morning and early afternoon. This will send temperatures to levels not seen since before the start of winter, creating a sharp dividing line across the province.

Some models have the Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia area pushing into the double digits. In the case of Windsor, some show a daytime high around 15 degrees at 2 PM, which is remarkably warm for a day when other parts of the province are dealing with a winter storm.

Instead of a winter storm, it will feel like an early taste of spring across Deep Southwestern Ontario. Rain and mild temperatures there will stand in stark contrast to the icy, snowy conditions unfolding just a few hours’ drive to the northeast.

London, the Lake Huron shoreline, and the Niagara region are expected to hover in the low to mid single digits. That will be just warm enough to stay mostly outside of the worst wintry precipitation, but nowhere near as warm as those further southwest.

It is important to note that this system brings a very tricky forecast because if models are off by even a fraction of a degree, it could significantly alter the mix of precipitation that an area sees. A subtle shift in the placement of the warm layer could either increase or decrease the overall impact dramatically.

As we have covered throughout the forecast, multiple areas of uncertainty remain, which should hopefully be cleared up by the time of our final forecast. Updated model data will help us refine the timing, precipitation types and amounts.

But with this being our preliminary forecast, we have initially gone with wider ranges on the forecast precipitation totals to cover the different scenarios. This is the most responsible approach when the atmosphere is finely balanced between different outcomes.

We expect to narrow these ranges in our final forecast as we gain better confidence in what will unfold. While significant changes to the overall setup are unlikely, we could see some shifts, with some areas jumping one category in either direction, especially if you are located right near the edge of one of the forecast zones.

Current indications suggest that the focus of the most significant impacts from this winter storm is likely to exist in a zone that encompasses Hamilton, Brantford, Burlington, Oakville, Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, Stratford, Woodstock, Mitchell, Listowel, Fergus, Arthur, Minto, Mildmay, Hanover, Chatsworth and Owen Sound. This is the area that currently has the highest risk for serious icing.

The predominant precipitation type throughout this event in that corridor is expected to be freezing rain, which may be quite heavy at times through the late morning and early afternoon. Periods of lighter freezing drizzle could fill in the gaps between heavier bursts.

This may reach ice storm levels, with the risk of widespread power outages through the hardest hit areas as the steady icing combined with strong wind gusts brings down tree branches and power lines. Travel may become dangerous or even impossible along some rural routes.

Ice accretion of 8 to 16 mm is possible here, and localized spots could see even higher amounts if heavier bands linger longer than expected. That much ice is more than enough to cause tree damage and infrastructure issues.

Another concerning aspect of this event is that much of this area is not expected to have a meaningful warm-up after the icing occurs. In fact, it is likely to remain below freezing through Thursday and into Friday.

That means impacts could persist for several days, as the ice will remain locked in place on surfaces, making cleanup and restoration efforts more challenging. Sidewalks, driveways and untreated back roads could remain treacherous well after the storm itself has moved on.

Further to the south and west, lower freezing rain accretion is expected as a transition to regular rain is expected for areas like the Niagara region through London and east of Lake Huron later in the morning. Here, temperatures rising above freezing will help limit ice buildup.

To the north and east of the main ice storm zone, we are expecting a zone including Dufferin County, along with Brampton, Vaughan, Mississauga and Toronto, to see a mix of all three wintry precipitation types. This is where the forecast becomes especially complex.

This will start with a few hours of freezing rain in the mid to late morning hours, amounting to up to 2 to 6 mm of ice accretion. Even on the lower end of that range, sidewalks and untreated surfaces will become slick.

By the late morning, this zone is expected to switch to ice pellets and then finally to heavy snow by the early afternoon. This changeover sequence will play a major role in how much snow is able to accumulate.

We have a large snowfall range here, with 5 cm on the low end and 15 cm on the upper end. This is due to the uncertainty around how long the ice pellets will last before switching over to snow.

If the switch over to snow happens faster than expected, this area could get closer to 15 cm of accumulation. A more delayed switch over would keep them closer to the 5 cm mark, as more of the precipitation would fall as denser, less-accumulating ice pellets.

Similarly, this uncertainty on the exact ratio of ice pellets and snow will be on display from the Bruce Peninsula through areas around Lake Simcoe and into Peterborough. Communities in this band will also see a wide spread of possible outcomes.

Snowfall totals here could range anywhere from 10 cm to 25 cm. Most models are showing a switch over to heavy snow by the late morning, which could allow many hours of steady heavy snow with hourly rates of 2 to 4 cm.

If this heavier snow scenario plays out, then general snowfall totals are likely to end up on the higher end of 15 to 25 cm. That would be enough to cause significant shovelling and plowing needs, along with difficult travel through the afternoon.

If more ice pellets mix in and continue for most of the event, it could keep totals as low as 10 cm, with more of the precipitation locked up as compact, crunchy pellets rather than fluffy snow. Even then, road conditions would still be quite poor.

Snowfall totals will drop off fast for regions further north into Central and Eastern Ontario. This is where the northern edge of the main snow band becomes more diffuse and less organized.

Disagreement in the models on how far north the band of snow will get means this corridor from Muskoka into Kingston could get anywhere from 2 cm to up to 10 cm of snow. Some towns could end up on the higher end if the band nudges a bit farther north than expected.

That drops down to 0 to 5 cm for Sudbury, through northern Muskoka, Bancroft and into Brockville. These areas will still see some impacts, but they should be less severe compared to the core zones further south, where ice and heavier snow are more likely.

February 09, 2026

Snowy Blast Could Bring 10-20cm of Fresh Snow to a Wide Swath of Southern Ontario on Tuesday

February 09, 2026/ Brennen Perry

The month of February has certainly been a lot quieter on the snow front across Southern Ontario compared to what many experienced during January. That stretch featured relentless lake effect squalls and several high-impact winter storms that seemed to roll through one after another. In contrast, February has so far offered more breaks between systems, even though we’ve still spent plenty of time locked in the deep freeze.

While temperatures have slipped well below seasonal levels again, the good news is that this cold snap is not expected to last. A gradual warming trend is forecast to take hold as we head into the middle of this week, with temperatures slowly climbing back toward seasonal norms as early as Tuesday.

However, that return to more seasonable temperatures comes with a trade-off. As we moderate, Southern Ontario will once again find itself squarely within the active storm track. And that pattern shift looks set to make itself known very quickly, as we continue to monitor a potentially widespread snow maker expected to impact the region on Tuesday.

A developing system is forecast to slide across Southern Ontario beginning overnight Monday and continuing through much of the day on Tuesday. Current guidance suggests this system has the potential to produce a broad swath of accumulating snow, particularly across Central and Eastern Ontario.

At this point, the highest confidence area for significant snowfall lies across Central and Eastern Ontario, where widespread accumulations of 10 to 20cm appear increasingly likely. While details are still being refined, confidence is growing that this will be a high-impact event for travel.

Given the timing, this system is expected to cause issues during both the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Snow is likely to be ongoing during the morning rush, with roads becoming increasingly snow covered as the day progresses. Conditions may briefly improve in some western areas by late afternoon, but parts of Eastern Ontario could be dealing with their worst conditions right as the evening commute begins.

In addition to snow, there is also a concern for mixed precipitation in parts of Southwestern Ontario and the western GTA. Some guidance continues to show a risk for freezing drizzle or freezing rain developing late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, particularly along the London, Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton corridor.

The system itself is expected to begin spreading into Southern Ontario from the northwest shortly after midnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The first areas to see snow will likely be Grey Bruce, Parry Sound, Simcoe County and Muskoka, with coverage expanding steadily southeastward through the pre-dawn hours.

By early Tuesday morning, snow should be fairly widespread across Central Ontario, with conditions continuing to deteriorate as snowfall rates increase.

**Hourly snowfall rates (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As we move into the mid-morning hours, snow is expected to expand into the Highway 401 corridor east of Toronto, stretching toward Belleville, Kingston and beyond.

The heaviest pocket of snow during the morning hours is expected across parts of Central Ontario and areas surrounding Lake Simcoe. In these regions, snowfall rates could reach 2 to 3cm per hour at times. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow and localized whiteout conditions are possible, which could make travel extremely difficult.

With those conditions developing during the morning hours, school bus cancellations are a strong possibility across parts of Central Ontario, particularly where the heaviest snow bands set up.

By the late morning hours, steady snow is expected to overspread much of Eastern Ontario, including Kingston and extending northward into the Ottawa Valley. Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon as the system strengthens while pushing east.

At the same time, we continue to monitor the risk of mixed precipitation further west. Some models are indicating a narrow zone where warmer air aloft could allow freezing rain, freezing drizzle or even ice pellets to briefly mix in with the snow. The highest risk for this appears to be from London through Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton, though it may extend north toward Barrie and east into York Region and parts of Toronto.

Confidence remains low on how much icing will occur and for how long. Most indications suggest this risk would be brief and taper off by early afternoon as the system continues east. Even so, any freezing rain could lead to icy road conditions, especially on untreated rural roads and side streets.

As we move into the afternoon, snow is expected to taper off from west to east across much of Southern Ontario. However, conditions may actually worsen further east as the system intensifies while moving into Eastern Ontario.

Some model data shows the potential for rapid intensification of snow bands across Eastern Ontario during the mid to late afternoon. In these scenarios, snowfall rates could briefly approach 4 to 5cm per hour for an hour or two. If that materializes, snow could pile up very quickly and lead to snow-covered roads just as the evening commute gets underway.

This raises concern for a particularly difficult evening commute through Kingston, Brockville and much of the Ottawa Valley, where travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly in a short period of time.

When it comes to snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be one of those systems where there is fairly strong agreement across the models.

Most of Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into Northeastern Ontario, can expect general snowfall totals in the 10 to 15cm range by the time snow winds down Tuesday evening. This includes areas such as Ottawa, Cornwall, Brockville, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Bancroft, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Algonquin Park, Parry Sound, North Bay, Sudbury and Elliot Lake.

We have opted to use a slightly broader forecast range of 10 to 20cm to account for the potential that the system overperforms in some areas. A few models continue to suggest totals creeping above 15cm in parts of Eastern Ontario, which would push localized amounts closer to the upper end of that range.

There is also a low but non-zero risk that isolated pockets could approach 25cm, particularly if intense snowfall rates linger over the same area for an extended period of time in Eastern Ontario. At this stage, totals above 20cm remain questionable and are not the most likely outcome.

Further south, snowfall totals are expected to be lower. These areas will likely sit south of the strongest precipitation bands, and temperatures closer to the freezing mark will also work against higher accumulations.

A zone stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Owen Sound, Collingwood, Midland, Barrie, Orillia, Peterborough, Oshawa, Belleville and Kingston is expected to see around 5 to 10cm of new snow. There is a chance that the northern edge of this zone, particularly near Orillia and Peterborough, could see localized totals closer to 15cm if heavier bands shift slightly south.

Southern Grey Bruce, Kitchener, Guelph and parts of the western GTA are expected to see less than 5cm of snow overall. However, these areas carry the highest risk for freezing rain, with up to 2mm of ice accretion possible during the late morning period.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including London and extending into the Niagara region, is expected to see little to no snow from this system. Temperatures here may briefly rise above the freezing mark on Tuesday, making regular rain the most likely precipitation type for much of the event.

We will continue to refine the forecast as higher resolution guidance comes into range, especially with regards to the freezing rain risk and the potential for intense snowfall rates in Eastern Ontario. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer to Tuesday.

January 24, 2026

25-40cm of Snow Possible Around Toronto on Sunday as Widespread Snowstorm Threatens Travel Across Southern Ontario

January 24, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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An expansive and high-impact winter storm is currently bearing down on a large portion of the United States this weekend, bringing widespread heavy snowfall and areas of crippling freezing rain to parts of the Southeast and the Northeastern US. This is a powerful and dynamic system that is already causing significant concern south of the border, with dangerous travel conditions, power outage risks and major disruptions expected in many states.

Southern Ontario will not be spared entirely from this storm. While we will avoid the worst of the freezing rain and blizzard conditions seen farther south, we are firmly in line to be clipped by the northwestern edge of this system on Sunday. That will be enough to deliver a widespread and impactful snowstorm across much of the region.

The axis of heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from near the Lake Erie shoreline, through the Golden Horseshoe, and eastward into Eastern Ontario. Travel impacts are likely to be significant, especially as the most intense snowfall rates arrive during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, a time when roads are typically busiest. Although thankfully on the weekend, which should help keep traffic volumes lower compared to a workday.

For many areas, general snowfall totals are expected to range between 15 and 25cm. This includes a broad zone covering Windsor, London, Kitchener, Kingston, Peterborough and Ottawa. However, snowfall amounts will not be uniform, and some regions will see considerably higher totals due to lake enhancement and mesoscale banding features.

The greatest concern continues to focus on the Golden Horseshoe and the Lake Ontario shoreline, where lake enhancement is expected to play a major role. In these areas, snowfall totals are likely to exceed 25cm, with some locations pushing well beyond that threshold by the time the snow tapers off late Sunday night.

There is growing confidence in the development of a persistent and narrow band of lake effect snow becoming embedded within the broader system snowfall. This feature is expected to impact parts of the Greater Toronto Area and the northwestern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. When lake effect bands become embedded within a large-scale storm like this, snowfall rates can intensify dramatically over a very small area.

This creates an unusual and high-risk setup where the most impressive snowfall totals of the entire event may end up falling over the most densely populated portion of Southern Ontario. In some neighbourhoods, it cannot be ruled out that total snowfall may approach or even exceed 40cm.

If that scenario materializes, it would place this event among the more significant snowfall events Toronto has seen in recent memory. At the same time, it is important to stress that totals will vary sharply over short distances depending on where this narrow band ultimately sets up.

Snow falling at this intensity, especially over a relatively short 12 to 16-hour window, is likely to cause major issues across the urban core of the Greater Toronto Area. Rapid accumulation during the afternoon and evening could overwhelm road crews, making it difficult to keep up with clearing operations.

It is very possible that some major routes could see closures if conditions deteriorate quickly, including portions of the DVP, the Gardiner Expressway and sections of the 400 series highways.

Although the snow is expected to gradually wind down overnight into Monday morning, impacts will linger well beyond the end of the snowfall. The Monday morning commute is likely to be heavily affected, with many roads still uncleared or partially cleared. This increases the likelihood of school bus cancellations and even potential school closures across the hardest hit regions.

The timeline for this storm begins during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Initial bands of light to moderate snow are expected to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario first.

Areas like Windsor and Chatham should see snow begin around 2 to 4 AM, with coverage and intensity increasing steadily through the morning hours.

As the morning progresses, the snow shield will expand northeastward, reaching London, Hamilton, Kitchener and the Niagara region by late morning. Snow may start off relatively light in these areas, but conditions will deteriorate as snowfall rates increase heading into the afternoon.

At the same time, a notable lake-driven feature is expected to develop over Lake Ontario. This feature may look like a “snow snake,” a narrow but intense band of lake effect snow that forms when cold Arctic air interacts with an unusual southeasterly wind flow. This is not a common setup, as southeasterly flows are typically associated with warmer air rather than when cold air is pushed in from the north or west.

This band is expected to first impact the northwestern shoreline of Lake Ontario, including portions of the Highway 401 corridor between Cobourg and Oshawa. Heavy snowfall rates are possible within this band even before the broader system snow arrives. In a short period of time, this could lay down 10 to 20cm of snow before noon in some areas.

By early afternoon, snowfall will ramp up significantly across much of Southern Ontario. More widespread, steady and heavy snow will overspread the Lake Erie shoreline and the Golden Horseshoe. The outer edge of the precipitation shield should reach areas from Barrie through Peterborough and into Kingston between roughly 11 AM and 1 PM.

One of the most critical elements of this forecast is how the system snow interacts with the lake effect band. As the main storm moves in, it is expected to absorb this lake effect band, but the band does not disappear. Instead, it continues as an embedded zone of enhanced snowfall, focused primarily on the eastern GTA, including Oshawa, Ajax and Whitby during the early afternoon. These areas will benefit from an added moisture source, resulting in higher snowfall rates than surrounding regions.

Snow will continue spreading northeast through the afternoon, eventually reaching Central Ontario and the Ottawa Valley by the mid to late afternoon. Similar to elsewhere, snow may begin on the lighter side but is expected to intensify into the evening hours for Eastern Ontario.

High-resolution model guidance continues to highlight an area of particularly intense snowfall rates across the Golden Horseshoe, driven by lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour appear likely, with localized pockets potentially exceeding that where the embedded band becomes stationary.

The most intense part of this band may slowly drift westward into the Toronto area and linger for several hours during the late afternoon and early evening.

This is the window when snowfall could accumulate extremely quickly, potentially reaching 5cm per hour or more at times. Because this band will be very narrow, snowfall totals will vary dramatically from one neighborhood to the next. It is entirely possible for one part of the GTA to receive double the snowfall of another area only a few kilometres away.

Wind will also play a role, with gusts occasionally reaching 40 to 60 km/h. This will lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. While widespread blizzard conditions are not currently expected, localized blizzard-like conditions with near zero visibility cannot be ruled out under the heaviest snowfall bands.

As the storm system pushes east into New England and Atlantic Canada, snowfall will begin to taper off across Southwestern Ontario during the evening hours. However, Eastern Ontario will just be reaching its peak snowfall during this time, with steady snow continuing through the evening from Kingston to Ottawa.

Across the Golden Horseshoe, conditions may actually worsen heading into Sunday evening as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This wind shift is expected to further intensify the lake effect band, allowing it to slide westward from Toronto into Mississauga, Oakville and eventually Burlington through the evening. Travel between Toronto and Hamilton during this period could be extremely difficult, and non-essential travel should be avoided if possible.

As Sunday night turns into early Monday morning, the bulk of the snowfall will become focused over Eastern Ontario as it winds down across most other parts of Southern Ontario.

The main exception will be the persistent lake effect band off Lake Ontario, which will now be free from the larger system. This band is expected to drift southward into Hamilton and potentially the northern Niagara region, including areas like Grimsby and St. Catharines, and could linger into the mid-morning hours on Monday.

For Eastern Ontario, snowfall should come to an end by around sunrise on Monday. However, the impacts will be far from over, as the amount of snow on the ground will almost certainly bring the Monday morning commute to a crawl.

When all is said and done, snowfall totals by Monday morning will be highly variable, especially in areas affected by lake enhancement. A widespread zone along the Lake Ontario shoreline through the Golden Horseshoe is expected to see 25 to 40cm of snow.

This includes Picton, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls. Within this zone, the highest totals near 35 to 40cm will be very localized where the most intense lake enhancement persists, while many areas will fall closer to the 25 to 30cm range.

A smaller and more targeted corridor, including Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga and Oakville, has the potential to exceed 40cm if the lake effect band becomes particularly intense or remains stationary for several hours. This will lead to dramatic differences in snowfall even between nearby neighbourhoods.

A broader area stretching from Windsor through London, Peterborough and into the Ottawa Valley can expect snowfall in the 15 to 25cm range. Some localized areas, particularly along the St. Lawrence River in Eastern Ontario, could see amounts closer to 30cm.

Snowfall totals will drop off farther northwest across Southern Ontario. Areas such as Sarnia, Goderich, Collingwood, Barrie, Orillia, Bancroft and Renfrew are currently forecast to receive 10 to 15cm. This zone remains highly sensitive to the exact northern edge of the precipitation shield, meaning totals could end up lower if the storm trends south, or higher if snowfall becomes more widespread than expected.

Finally, less than 10cm of snow is expected across Grey Bruce, Muskoka and Algonquin Park. For these regions, this will be a welcome break after enduring near continuous snow squall activity over the past week.

We know the real question on everyone’s mind is not how much snow is coming, but how many bags of storm chips are required to survive it. We’ve got you covered with our very non-scientific ‘storm chips’ forecast!

The heaviest snow is expected to focus along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario and extend into parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Oshawa, Vaughan, Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville and Burlington.

With widespread totals expected in the 20-40cm range, this is the kind of snowfall that doesn’t disappear overnight. Dense urban areas tend to grind to a halt during storms like this, and snow removal can take several days before things feel remotely normal again.

For that reason, we’ve officially dusted off the pink crayons. If you’re in this zone, we recommend a strong 4-5 bags of storm chips and about 15-20 cups of your favourite storm beverages to get you through the digging out phase.

Elsewhere along the Lake Ontario shoreline, from Kingston through Peterborough and around the Golden Horseshoe into Kitchener, Hamilton and the Niagara Region, impacts should still be solid. This zone is looking at a respectable 3-4 bags of storm chips and roughly 10-15 cups of storm drinks to ride out the storm in comfort.

Across the rest of Eastern Ontario into Deep Southwestern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, Barrie, and stretching down toward Windsor and London, snowfall totals in the 10-20cm range are expected.

While not extreme, this amount of snow will still make travel messy on Sunday and likely keep you home for the day. A sensible 2-3 bags of storm chips and 5-10 cups of storm drinks should do the trick here.

Further north into Central Ontario and Grey-Bruce, snowfall amounts look lighter, generally under 10cm. Considering what these areas have already endured from relentless snow squalls over the past week, this is almost a break. Still, it never hurts to be prepared, so we suggest 1-2 bags of storm chips and 2-5 storm drinks, just in case.

January 24, 2026

Another Major Snowstorm Targets the GTA and Parts of Southern Ontario on Sunday With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

January 24, 2026/ Brennen Perry

It has been just over a week since a high-impact snowstorm swept across Southern Ontario last Thursday, bringing widespread disruption and heavy snowfall to many communities. The hardest hit areas were centred on the Greater Toronto Area, where some neighbourhoods picked up more than 30 cm of snow in a relatively short period of time. That storm caused major travel issues, school disruptions, and a lengthy cleanup that is still fresh in many people’s minds.

That’s why the forecast for this upcoming weekend may sound eerily familiar. Another snowstorm is increasingly likely to impact many of the same areas that were hit last week. While this system will not be identical, there is once again the potential for significant snowfall, especially across the Golden Horseshoe. Some parts of the region could be digging out from over 20 cm of snow by Monday morning, with localized higher amounts still very much on the table.

A large and powerful winter storm that is expected to have a widespread impact across much of the Central and Eastern United States will begin pushing northward toward Southern Ontario on Sunday. This is a major system that will be producing destructive ice storm conditions in some areas and blizzard conditions in others south of the border. Thankfully, we will not see the worst of this storm locally.

Instead, Southern Ontario is expected to be brushed by the northeastern fringe of this expansive system. While that may sound like a glancing blow, it is more than enough to cause problems here. When combined with lake enhancement off Lake Ontario, this setup has the potential to produce a disruptive and high-impact snowstorm for the Golden Horseshoe and parts of Eastern Ontario.

One of the biggest challenges with this forecast continues to be how far northwest the main bands of precipitation are able to push. Weather models are still not fully aligned on the exact placement of the heaviest snow, and that will make a big difference in who sees the highest totals. Central and Southwestern Ontario currently sit right on the edge of the storm’s reach.

If the system tracks a bit further east, some of these areas could see very little snow at all. On the other hand, a slightly more western track would bring accumulating snow much deeper into Southern Ontario and significantly expand the impact zone.

Confidence is much higher for areas closer to and east of the Lake Ontario shoreline. Regardless of the exact track, these regions are expected to see accumulating snow.

What remains uncertain is just how high the totals will climb. In a lower impact scenario, snowfall amounts would generally range from 20 to 25 cm around the GTA, with 10 to 20 cm extending eastward along the Lake Ontario shoreline into Eastern Ontario.

In a higher-end or overperforming scenario, localized pockets could approach 40 cm of snow, especially in and around the Toronto area. In that case, totals over 20 cm could extend across much of Eastern Ontario, parts of Central Ontario, and even into portions of Deep Southwestern Ontario. At this point, both outcomes remain plausible depending on how the system evolves.

Regardless of the final totals, this storm is expected to produce hazardous travel conditions, especially as snowfall intensity ramps up Sunday afternoon and evening. Roads are likely to become snow-covered and slippery, with visibility reduced at times during heavier bursts of snow. Conditions should slowly begin to improve overnight into Monday morning, but the impacts will not end there.

Given the amount of snow that is likely to fall, there is a high probability of significant impacts to the Monday morning commute. This includes the strong potential for school bus cancellations and school closures across parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario. Even if snowfall tapers off before daybreak, cleanup operations will still be ongoing during the morning hours.

While we will have a more detailed look at timing in our final forecast late Saturday, current data suggests snowfall will begin to spread over parts of Southern Ontario late Sunday morning. Steady snow is expected to reach Deep Southwestern Ontario around 8 to 9 AM, gradually expanding northeastward through the day.

At the same time, there are growing signals that a lake effect snow band may develop over Lake Ontario and extend into areas north and northwest of the lake. This band could stretch from Belleville along the Highway 401 corridor, through Toronto, and westward toward Hamilton. This is an important detail, as lake enhancement could significantly boost snowfall totals in a narrow corridor.

High-resolution models are just beginning to come into range, but early indications show elevated snowfall totals along this corridor. In some cases, 10 to 20 cm of snow could fall even before the main system snow arrives later Sunday afternoon and evening. This would set the stage for very high totals once the storm fully ramps up.

The steadier, more widespread snow associated with the main system will continue to spread northeastward during the afternoon. Snowfall intensity is expected to increase through the Golden Horseshoe and into Central and Eastern Ontario as the evening progresses, with the heaviest rates focused near Lake Ontario.

Models are also hinting at the possibility of an embedded lake effect streamer developing and narrowly extending into parts of the western GTA. This includes Downtown Toronto and potentially Mississauga. If this band materializes, it would likely develop sometime during the afternoon and intensify into the evening hours.

The exact placement of this feature is highly uncertain and could shift around considerably. Because of that, snowfall totals could vary dramatically over relatively short distances. Where this band sets up, snowfall rates could double or even triple compared to surrounding areas, leading to very rapid accumulation in a short amount of time.

As the system begins to wind down overnight, this pocket of lake enhancement is expected to gradually weaken. Current model guidance suggests it may slowly sink southward through areas like Oakville, Burlington, and Hamilton as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This could prolong snowfall in those communities even as conditions improve elsewhere.

Most areas should see the snow taper off by around sunrise on Monday. However, parts of Eastern Ontario may see steadier snow linger through the morning hours before finally ending by the afternoon. Even after the snow stops, cleanup and travel impacts will continue for much of the day.

When it comes to potential snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be a storm with significant variability, even across small areas. The lake enhancement component means there will likely be a narrow corridor somewhere through the GTA where totals approach or even exceed 40 cm, while nearby locations receive much less.

At this time, the highest totals are expected along the northern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. Snowfall amounts in this zone are forecast to range from 20 to 40 cm. This includes areas such as Picton, Belleville, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga, Oakville, and Burlington.

Somewhere between Oshawa and Oakville, localized pockets near 40 cm appear most likely, which seems to be likely focused on parts of Toronto. Outside of those hotspots, much of this corridor is expected to fall into the 20 to 30 cm range. There is still a chance that totals could exceed 40 cm if the lake enhancement band is stronger or lingers longer than expected, though recent model runs suggest less overperforming potential than earlier data.

The rest of the Golden Horseshoe and much of Eastern Ontario away from the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline can expect generally 15 to 30 cm of snow from this storm. This includes places like Niagara, Brantford, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville, Newmarket, Peterborough, Kingston, Brockville, Ottawa, and Cornwall. We expect to tighten this range further once the storm track becomes clearer.

For Southwestern Ontario into parts of Central Ontario, current projections suggest totals in the 10 to 20 cm range. However, there is expected to be a very sharp cutoff on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield. This means snowfall totals could drop off quickly over short distances.

If the system does not extend far enough northwest, areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could end up being mostly clipped by the snow, with minimal accumulation. In contrast, Deep Southwestern Ontario including Windsor, Chatham, and London appears most likely to see at least 10 cm of snow regardless of the final track.

Overall confidence in this forecast is fairly high thanks to strong agreement among most weather models. That said, the storm is still more than 24 hours away. This forecast remains preliminary and could change if there is a last minute shift in the data. While a major surprise is unlikely given the current consistency, it cannot be completely ruled out.

Our final forecast will be published Saturday evening once the latest data is available. At that time, we will provide a more precise snowfall range and a detailed timing breakdown so you have a clearer picture of what to expect throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday.

January 21, 2026

Snowy One-Two Punch Targets Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday as Alberta Clipper and Squalls Dump Up to 25 to 50 cm of Snow

January 21, 2026/ Brennen Perry

The story of the week so far across Southern Ontario has been the relentless snow squall activity that has been hammering the region, bringing treacherous travel conditions as a surge of Arctic air continues to sit overhead. These squalls have been anything but minor, producing frequent whiteouts, rapidly deteriorating road conditions, and dangerous travel at times.

The worst of the impacts on Tuesday was when intense snow squalls forced the closure of multiple stretches of Hwy 11 between Bracebridge and Orillia. Whiteout conditions combined with rapidly accumulating snow led to several accidents, leaving many drivers stranded and highlighting just how dangerous these squalls can become when they lock into place.

While the snow squalls are far from finished, the threat zone is expected to shift over the next few days as winds gradually turn more westerly. This change in wind direction will push the most persistent squall activity away from areas that were hit earlier this week and refocus it further west and north.

As a result, locations such as the Bruce Peninsula, Muskoka, Parry Sound, and even areas further inland like Haliburton and Bancroft are expected to see the most significant impacts through the second half of the week.

Snow squall activity will briefly weaken during the day on Wednesday, but this will not be because the atmosphere is calming down. Instead, an Alberta Clipper is expected to move into Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday morning, temporarily disrupting the lake effect setup.

This clipper will spread a shield of steady light to moderate snow across Southwestern Ontario, extending through the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario as the day goes on. While this system is not expected to produce extreme snowfall amounts on its own, it will still have notable impacts due to its timing and the already poor road conditions in many areas.

Compared to the storm some locations experienced last week, snowfall totals with this system will be more modest. However, the combination of falling snow, reduced visibility, and slick road surfaces could still make both the morning and evening commute hazardous in spots.

At this point, we are expecting a general 5 to 10 cm from the Alberta Clipper. As is typical with these systems, snowfall will not be uniform. Alberta Clippers are often moisture-starved, which can lead to dry pockets where snowfall totals underperform, while narrow bands of heavier snow can locally boost amounts closer to 15 cm.

Snow squalls that are already developed east of Georgian Bay will continue to impact the Parry Sound and Muskoka region through the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Travel conditions in these areas will remain poor early in the day, especially where bands remain persistent.

As the clipper approaches, winds will begin to shift by mid-morning, weakening the squalls and temporarily shutting down the lake effect snow machine. This will offer a short-lived improvement in conditions for areas east of Georgian Bay before the next phase of the pattern kicks in.

The outer bands of snow associated with the Alberta Clipper will begin to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario around sunrise, affecting areas such as Windsor, Sarnia, and Chatham. From there, the snow will steadily expand northeastward through the late morning hours.

By midday, snow will be falling across much of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe and Central Ontario. Snowfall rates are not expected to be overly intense, generally topping out around 1-2 cm per hour, but wind gusts of 40 to 60 km/h could still lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Model guidance is also hinting at the development of a dry slot north of the GTA, particularly around Lake Simcoe. This includes areas such as Collingwood, Barrie, and parts of York Region, where snowfall rates could be noticeably lower.

This is a common issue with Alberta Clippers. While the Great Lakes can often help enhance snowfall by adding moisture, regions around Lake Simcoe may miss out when winds are predominantly southerly. In this setup, they sit outside the direct influence of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario moisture feeds.

On the flip side, the Toronto to Kingston corridor is expected to benefit from Lake Ontario enhancement. This added moisture could push snowfall totals closer to 10 to 15 cm in this zone, slightly higher than surrounding areas.

This enhanced snowfall is also expected to coincide with the evening commute, particularly along Hwy 401 east of Toronto toward Kingston. Drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions, with visibility dropping quickly at times as heavier bursts of snow move through.

Light snow will also spread into the Ottawa Valley by early afternoon. However, snowfall totals will likely taper off the further north you go as the influence of Lake Ontario weakens. Ottawa itself may only pick up a few centimetres by the time the snow winds down Wednesday evening.

Snow from the clipper is expected to gradually taper off from west to east by the late afternoon or early evening as the system exits Eastern Ontario. Unfortunately, this break will be brief for snowbelt regions.

As the system departs, lake effect snow is expected to rapidly redevelop overnight Wednesday as winds settle into a southwesterly direction. This will allow the lake effect machine to roar back to life.

The brunt of the snow squall activity overnight will be focused on the Bruce Peninsula, Parry Sound, and North Muskoka. At times, these squalls could stretch further inland toward areas like Sundridge and even North Bay.

Travel conditions overnight into Thursday are expected to be very poor. Snowfall rates may become intense within the strongest bands, and it is quite possible that sections of Hwy 400 or Hwy 11 could see temporary closures if snow accumulates faster than crews can keep up. Travel in these areas is highly discouraged.

By sunrise Thursday, winds are expected to gradually turn more westerly. This shift will cause the main squall to sink southward into Muskoka, targeting locations such as Bracebridge, Port Carling, Baysville, Port Sydney, Rosseau, and MacTier.

Some model guidance suggests this squall could become nearly stationary through much of the day Thursday. If this scenario verifies, snowfall totals could quickly climb, with some areas potentially exceeding 50 cm by the end of Thursday.

Other models suggest a more oscillating band that shifts north and south throughout the day. While this would limit extreme totals in one single location, it would spread significant snowfall across a broader portion of Muskoka and Parry Sound.

As we head into Thursday afternoon, the impacts of the Georgian Bay squall may extend beyond the typical snowbelt. Strengthening winds could allow the band to push further inland, potentially reaching parts of Eastern Ontario and even the Ottawa Valley.

Locations such as Bancroft, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, and Ottawa could see several hours of heavy snow, leading to sudden whiteout conditions right during the evening commute. These whiteouts can occur with very little warning, making it critical for drivers to remain alert and be ready to adjust their driving immediately.

It could also bring a quick 5-10cm to the Ottawa Valley, which, combined with the Alberta Clipper, puts them in the 5-15cm range despite missing the worst of the clipper.

Additional lake effect snow is also possible east of Lake Huron during the day on Thursday, affecting Grey Bruce, along with parts of Huron and Perth Counties. While models are not showing a well-organized band at this time, wind gusts near 60 km/h could still lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Snow squall activity is likely to persist into Thursday night and possibly into Friday morning. This forecast cuts off at the end of Thursday, with a separate update planned to cover Friday and beyond.

In terms of snowfall totals, most areas away from the lake effect are expected to see around 5 to 10 cm from the Alberta Clipper alone. Some pockets will fall short of that, while others may exceed it slightly, depending on lake enhancement.

That is why regions not expecting lake effect snow are generally placed in the 5 to 15 cm range. This includes much of Eastern Ontario, parts of the eastern GTA, and most of Southwestern Ontario.

Exceptions include areas northwest of the GTA, such as Barrie, Keswick, Bradford, Orangeville, and Angus, as well as Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington, and Chatham. These locations are expected to see less moisture and may remain below 5 cm. The same applies to the western GTA and Hamilton.

Once lake effect snow is factored in, totals increase quickly east of Georgian Bay. This includes snowfall from early Wednesday before the clipper arrives and the more intense squalls that follow on Thursday.

Snowfall totals of 25 to 50 cm are expected for the Bruce Peninsula, including Wiarton, Lions Head, and Tobermory, as well as areas east of Georgian Bay such as Bracebridge, Huntsville, and Parry Sound. Muskoka in particular has the potential to exceed 50 cm if the squall becomes stationary on Thursday.

Further south and east, areas such as Midland, Gravenhurst, Minden, Haliburton, and Bancroft can expect around 5 to 10 cm from the system, with an additional 10 to 15 cm from lake effect snow. This puts totals in the 15 to 25 cm range, with locally higher amounts possible.

Southern Grey-Bruce, extending into portions of Huron and Perth Counties, including Owen Sound, Meaford, Hanover, and Listowel, is also expected to end up in the 15 to 25 cm range by the time all is said and done.

January 14, 2026

High-Impact Snowstorm to Disrupt Thursday Morning Commute for Toronto, London, Ottawa and Eastern Ontario With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

January 14, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After a brief break from winter that allowed much of Southern Ontario to enjoy a bit of a so-called “January thaw”, it is becoming very clear that winter is far from finished. A sharp and notable cool down is now underway across the province, and by Thursday morning, temperatures will plunge well below seasonal levels.

Many areas across Southern Ontario will see air temperatures drop to near or below -15°C, and when the wind is factored in, it could feel closer to -20°C to -30°C in some communities.

While the bitter cold will certainly be noticeable, it will not be the main story over the next 24 to 36 hours. Attention now turns to a developing winter storm that forecast models have struggled to resolve right up until the last minute. This system is expected to spread a broad swath of steady snowfall across much of Southern Ontario, with the potential for significant impacts in highly populated and heavily travelled regions.

Earlier forecasts suggested this would be a fairly routine winter event, with snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15 centimetre range for the hardest hit areas. That type of snowfall is very common this time of year and would have resulted in some slow travel, but nothing overly disruptive. However, the latest model runs have dramatically shifted, showing a much stronger and more organized storm system taking shape.

Over the past several model cycles, guidance has intensified considerably. We are now tracking what could become the most widespread and impactful snowfall event of the season so far for parts of Southern Ontario. Some areas may see snowfall totals that rival or exceed anything experienced so far this winter.

Based on the latest data, we are now forecasting widespread snowfall totals in the 20 to 40 centimetre range across a large corridor stretching from Southwestern Ontario through the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario.

Snow has already begun in some areas and is expected to continue intensifying through Wednesday evening, persisting through much of the day on Thursday before finally tapering off later in the afternoon or early evening.

This higher impact zone covers a very large portion of the province, including some of the most densely populated regions. This alone raises concerns about travel disruptions, school and business impacts, and the potential for extended cleanup times once the snow finally ends.

In addition to the steady system snowfall, there is also the potential for snow squalls to become embedded within the system. These are most likely to develop south of Lake Huron, particularly overnight into Thursday morning. Areas between Sarnia and London, including Lambton County and parts of Chatham-Kent, could see enhanced snowfall rates as lake enhancement adds extra moisture to the system.

The worst travel conditions are expected to occur overnight and into Thursday morning. By the time many people wake up, there will already be a substantial amount of snow on the ground, with steady snowfall ongoing. This sets the stage for a very difficult Thursday morning commute across much of Southern Ontario.

If travel can be avoided in the hardest hit areas, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday, it would be strongly advised. For those who must travel, expect significant delays, poor visibility at times, and rapidly deteriorating road conditions, particularly in urban areas that have not yet seen a snowfall of this magnitude this season.

While there is growing agreement among models that a major snowfall event is likely, confidence is still not especially high when it comes to the exact placement of the heaviest bands. The forecast remains volatile, with some models continuing to shift the storm track slightly north or south. This has created a very sharp snowfall gradient, meaning small changes in the storm’s position could result in big differences in totals over short distances.

In some cases, communities could see over 20 centimetres of snow, while locations just 30 or 40 kilometres away may see less than half of that. This makes pinpointing exact totals extremely challenging and increases the risk of some areas either underperforming or significantly exceeding the forecast.

Snow has already begun across Deep Southwestern Ontario and will continue spreading northeastward through the evening. By around midnight, snowfall should be widespread across much of Southwestern Ontario and expanding into the Golden Horseshoe, including the Niagara region and western GTA.

For many locations, snowfall will begin as steady and moderate, gradually increasing in intensity through the overnight hours. Snowfall rates will generally sit around 1 to 2 centimetres per hour initially, which on its own may not seem overly concerning. The issue is the duration of the event, as these rates will persist for 12 hours or more in some areas, allowing snow to pile up over time.

The heaviest snowfall overnight is expected to be focused between Sarnia and London, where lake enhancement off Lake Huron may briefly boost snowfall rates higher. These heavier bursts could make travel especially difficult overnight and into the early morning hours.

Wind will also become a factor as the storm progresses. Gusts will increase to between 40 and 60 kilometres per hour in some areas overnight. When combined with falling snow, this will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly in open and rural areas.

Conditions are expected to continue deteriorating into Thursday morning as snowfall intensity increases across much of the Golden Horseshoe. Areas from London through Hamilton and into the Greater Toronto Area could see periods of heavier snow during the morning hours. In the most intense bands, snowfall rates may briefly reach 2 to 4 centimetres per hour, which will make it very difficult for road crews to keep up.

Unfortunately, this lines up almost perfectly with the Thursday morning rush hour. Travel across the GTA and surrounding regions will be extremely slow, and in some cases nearly impossible, especially on secondary roads. If you can delay travel or work from home, Thursday morning would be an ideal time to do so.

Snow will also spread into Eastern Ontario overnight and early Thursday morning. The Ottawa area is expected to see snow arrive around or just before the morning commute, with conditions worsening through the late morning and early afternoon hours.

One of the most important details we are still watching closely is the northern cutoff of the heaviest snow. As shown on the forecast map, there is a sharp transition zone near areas such as Barrie and Peterborough. The American HRRR model suggests that locations just north of this line may see very little snow, while those south of it could see totals exceeding 20 centimetres.

Other model solutions shift this cutoff further south, which would place parts of the GTA closer to the lower snowfall edge. Meanwhile, some guidance shifts it further north, allowing areas like Barrie and Peterborough to see much higher totals. This uncertainty is why confidence drops significantly near this transition zone.

Another key factor enhancing snowfall totals is the colder air moving in behind the system. By Thursday morning, many parts of Southern Ontario will feel like -20°C or colder once you factor in the wind chill.

As temperatures drop, the snow becomes lighter and fluffier. Colder air allows snowflakes to be less dense, which means the same amount of moisture can produce more snow on the ground. This is known as a higher snow-to-liquid ratio, and it is one reason totals may end up higher than initially expected.

Through the late morning hours on Thursday, heavy snow is expected to continue across the Golden Horseshoe while spreading further east into Eastern Ontario.

In the west, areas near Lake Huron and Deep Southwestern Ontario should begin to see snowfall gradually taper off toward the end of the morning.

By around noon, steady snow should still be falling from the Golden Horseshoe eastward into Eastern Ontario. The Niagara region and eastern portions of the GTA may remain under heavier snowfall for the first part of the afternoon before intensity slowly begins to decrease.

Eastern Ontario may end up seeing the worst conditions during the early to mid-afternoon hours. Snowfall rates here are expected to range between 1 and 3 centimetres per hour and could linger for several hours before tapering off later in the day.

Snow should finally begin to move out of most areas by late afternoon or early evening, though a few lingering flurries may persist into the evening across Eastern Ontario.

The most challenging aspect of this storm remains the tight snowfall gradient. Small shifts in storm track will make a big difference in totals, and models continue to disagree on exactly where that cutoff will set up. This means forecast amounts could change with little notice.

After reviewing all available guidance, we have put together a snowfall forecast that reflects the most likely scenario based on the majority of model data. However, this is one of those events where nearly every model offers a slightly different outcome, and it would not take much for totals to shift in either direction.

The highest snowfall totals appear most likely in a corridor stretching from Sarnia through London, across the entire Golden Horseshoe, and into Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley. These areas can expect widespread totals of 20 to 40 centimetres, with isolated pockets possibly approaching or exceeding 50 centimetres.

This includes communities such as Sarnia, Chatham, London, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Brantford, Niagara Falls, Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph, Mississauga, Toronto, Oshawa, Belleville, Tweed, Kingston, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Ottawa, Brockville and Cornwall.

Slightly lower totals in the 10 to 20 centimetre range are expected for areas like Windsor, Leamington, Grand Bend, Goderich, Hanover, Orangeville, Newmarket, Peterborough and Bancroft. This is also the zone with the lowest confidence, as some of these locations could end up with significantly more or less snow depending on where the cutoff ultimately sets up.

Further north and west, snowfall amounts drop off quickly. Areas such as Owen Sound, Barrie and Pembroke are expected to see less than 10 centimetres of accumulation, with little to no snowfall expected north of Orillia.

These totals remain subject to change, and adjustments are likely as the storm unfolds. We will be closely monitoring conditions throughout Thursday and will provide real-time updates as we see how the storm is evolving on radar and through observations.

January 04, 2026

Quick Blast of Heavy Snow May Impact the Morning Commute in Southern Ontario With Up to 15cm of Snow on Monday

January 04, 2026/ Brennen Perry

It has certainly been a busy start to 2026 across parts of Southern Ontario, especially in the snowbelt regions. Relentless snow squalls over the past week have brought widespread travel disruptions along with staggering snowfall totals, with some areas picking up an incredible 50 to 100cm of snow in a relatively short period of time.

While we managed to catch a bit of a break through the weekend, that quieter stretch will be short-lived. The first full week of the new year is shaping up to be an active one, with several rounds of messy winter weather expected to move through Southern Ontario over the next few days.

The next system arrives early Monday in the form of a fast-moving Alberta clipper. Unfortunately, the timing could not be much worse. With many people heading back to work and school after the holiday break, this system is expected to sweep through during the heart of the Monday morning commute.

Snow is expected to break out across Southwestern Ontario and quickly expand northeastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. While this will not be a major snowfall event by snowbelt standards, the intensity and timing of the snow could still cause notable travel issues.

Snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, especially compared to what areas east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay have been dealing with recently.

However, widespread amounts of 8 to 15cm are possible in the hardest hit regions. The key factor here is that much of this snow is expected to fall within just a few hours, which significantly increases its impact compared to a longer duration, lighter snowfall.

This clipper system is expected to move through fairly quickly, with conditions gradually improving by Monday afternoon or early evening. However, the active pattern will not take long to reload.

A second system is already lining up to arrive beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty surrounding the exact track of this system, which will ultimately determine who sees snow, ice, or rain.

At this point, areas closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario appear most at risk for a period of freezing rain, potentially followed by heavy rain as warmer air pushes northward. Further north into Central and Eastern Ontario, colder air may hold on longer, leading to another round of accumulating snow with totals in the 5 to 15cm range possible.

Looking even further ahead, we are also monitoring two additional systems that could impact Southern Ontario toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Early indications suggest much of Southern Ontario may start out on the rain side of the system on Friday. However, colder air could work its way south by Saturday, allowing rain to transition back to snow.

It is far too early to pin down exact impacts, but this system will have access to a large amount of moisture. If colder air arrives sooner or proves more stubborn than currently expected, the risk for significant snowfall or even prolonged freezing rain would increase.

Turning back to Monday’s clipper, the first bands of snow are expected to enter Southern Ontario from the west overnight into the early morning hours. Snow should develop along the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline by mid-morning, becoming steady and occasionally heavy.

By late morning, snow will spread eastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. With this occurring during peak commuting hours, expect slower travel and reduced visibility, especially for those who may be easing back into winter driving after the holidays.

Blowing and drifting snow may further reduce visibility, particularly in areas east of Lake Huron where deep snowbanks are already in place. Even moderate winds will be enough to cause drifting in open areas and along rural roadways.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate the most by the late morning hours around Lake Simcoe and into parts of the Greater Toronto Area. During this time, hourly snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 3cm, which would qualify as heavy snow. This can quickly overwhelm road crews and lead to rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

As the system continues east, light snow will begin reaching Eastern Ontario while snowfall starts to taper off closer to Lake Huron. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and into Deep Southwestern Ontario will largely be spared from the worst of the snow, with the bulk of the moisture tracking north of these regions.

Snowfall intensity will gradually decrease through the early afternoon as the system moves away. Steadier snow will linger across Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas such as Kitchener and the GTA see snow slowly taper off as the system lifts north of Lake Simcoe.

Some lingering light snow could persist into the early evening hours for parts of Eastern Ontario, including areas near Kingston and Brockville, before finally coming to an end.

There is fairly strong agreement among forecast models when it comes to overall snowfall placement. Most guidance supports a swath of 10 to 15cm stretching from Grey-Bruce through Central Ontario, into the northern GTA, Peterborough, and extending eastward toward Kingston. This zone may also extend into parts of southern Northeastern Ontario.

For our forecast map, we have opted to lower the top range slightly to 8 to 15cm rather than a more aggressive 10 to 15cm. This accounts for the possibility of some underperformance near the southern edge of the snow band, especially through parts of Toronto. Clippers are notorious for sharp gradients and occasional dry slots, which could keep totals lower in some locations.

Across the Goderich to Kitchener and Hamilton corridor, snowfall amounts of 5 to 8cm look reasonable. That said, if the system ends up being drier than expected, some locations may struggle to reach the 5cm mark.

Further south into Sarnia, London, and the Niagara Region, amounts should generally stay below 5cm. Windsor and Leamington may see little more than a trace, if any snow at all.

In the Ottawa Valley, northern sections closer to the Quebec border, including Pembroke, Ottawa, and Cornwall, are expected to see around 2 to 5cm. Areas further south, such as Bancroft, Smiths Falls, and Brockville, could pick up closer to 5 to 8cm.

Some recent model runs have hinted at heavier snow pushing a bit further north in Eastern Ontario, so the potential for localized overperformance cannot be ruled out.

Once snow winds down Monday evening, conditions will briefly improve before the next system approaches. Current guidance suggests a messy and complex setup developing Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday.

Unlike the clipper, this system will involve a stronger battle between warm and cold air. This raises the risk for a band of freezing rain to set up somewhere across Southern Ontario, at least for a few hours.

At this point, it looks like a lower-impact freezing rain scenario where areas transition from freezing rain to plain rain as warmer air moves northward. However, higher resolution models are only just coming into range, and it is possible that the cold air proves more stubborn than currently expected.

As the system exits overnight into Wednesday, a broader area of heavier snow could develop across Northeastern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. Where this snow band ultimately sets up remains uncertain, but snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15cm range are possible.

We will have a much clearer picture of that system once Monday’s clipper moves through and we can assess how the atmosphere responds.

Beyond that, yet another round of unsettled weather is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend. While heavy rain currently looks like the main concern, colder air arriving sooner could flip the script toward heavy snow. This remains highly preliminary, but it reinforces the message that winter is not easing up anytime soon.

December 27, 2025

End-of-Year Major Winter Storm to Bring Dangerous Ice Storm and Blizzard Conditions Across Southern and Northeastern Ontario Starting Sunday

December 27, 2025/ Brennen Perry

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As we close out 2025, the final few days are shaping up to be very messy and potentially dangerous. A complex and powerful winter storm is expected to impact Ontario between Sunday and Monday, bringing ice storm conditions to a wide swath of Central, Eastern and Northeastern Ontario.

With significant and prolonged freezing rain expected, widespread and long-lasting power outages are likely in the hardest hit areas. Ice accretion of up to 20mm is possible, and unfortunately, the regions most at risk include many of the same areas that were hit hard by last March’s major ice storm. In some locations, the power grid remains fragile, which raises additional concern.

Further north, the story will shift to heavy snow across much of Northeastern Ontario. Long-lasting blizzard conditions are possible here, with snowfall totals potentially exceeding 50cm by the time the storm finally winds down on Tuesday.

This system will also bring the risk of severe wind gusts across both Southern and Northern Ontario on Monday. Areas closest to the shorelines of the Great Lakes will be at the greatest risk, with damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h possible. There may even be some isolated pockets, mainly in the Niagara region, that approach 100 km/h.

Southwestern Ontario will be largely unaffected by the first phase of the storm. Temperatures here will rise steadily on Sunday, peaking in the double digits by late afternoon or evening. Rain will fall steadily through Sunday and into early Monday. However, conditions will change rapidly as temperatures plunge Monday morning, creating a potential flash freeze as all that rainfall quickly freezes on roads and other surfaces.

Later on Monday, strong wind gusts will combine with steady, moderate snowfall around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Blizzard conditions could develop during the afternoon and evening as visibility drops and blowing snow becomes intense.

The storm will begin to take shape late Sunday morning as the first bands of precipitation spread into Northeastern Ontario and parts of Southwestern Ontario. This will initially include some light freezing rain extending from London through Kitchener and Barrie.

Sunday afternoon will be heavily dependent on the position of the freezing line, which is expected to slowly expand northeastward. Areas to the southwest will gradually climb above freezing and escape the worst of the icing, while regions farther northeast remain locked below zero.

By around midday, most of Central and Eastern Ontario is expected to remain well below freezing. Higher elevation areas northwest of the GTA will hover close to the freezing mark, including Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph and Orangeville. How long the cold air remains trapped at the surface will play a major role in how impactful the icing becomes in places like the Kitchener area.

Meanwhile, Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, will already be sitting in the mid single digits. Heavy rain will be ongoing here, but there will be no winter storm impacts during the day on Sunday.

As Sunday afternoon progresses, the freezing rain shield will expand northward into the North Bay area and the Ottawa Valley. The heaviest icing during this time is expected to focus around Lake Simcoe.

Locations such as Bracebridge, Lindsay, Orillia, Peterborough, Barrie, York Region, Kitchener and Orangeville appear likely to see the worst icing on Sunday afternoon. Precipitation rates will be quite heavy, allowing ice to accumulate rapidly on roads, trees and power lines.

At the same time, Southwestern Ontario, including the Niagara region, will see heavy rain, with some embedded non-severe thunderstorms possible. Rainfall totals could be significant, with some localized areas exceeding 50mm by Monday morning.

Flooding could be a concern as frozen ground has a lower ability to absorb the rain.

As we move into Sunday evening, the freezing rain zone will become very expansive as the system rapidly intensifies. Intense icing is expected from Sault Ste. Marie through Sudbury and North Bay and into Central and Eastern Ontario.

Meanwhile, colder and more entrenched air across Northeastern Ontario will allow precipitation to switch over to heavy snow. Areas from Wawa to Kapuskasing will see snowfall rates increase significantly.

By late Sunday evening, uncertainty will increase across southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario as temperatures hover very close to the freezing mark. This includes Barrie, Orillia, Muskoka, the Kawarthas, Peterborough and Kingston. If cold air proves even slightly more resilient than currently expected, these regions could remain below freezing overnight and continue to experience ice storm conditions.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, it will feel almost surreal for late December, with temperatures climbing into the double digits even around midnight.

Overnight Sunday into early Monday, heavy snowfall will expand farther south across Northeastern Ontario as colder air continues to advance. Areas including Sault Ste. Marie, Timmins and the Cochrane corridor are expected to transition from freezing rain to heavy snow.

This transition is especially concerning for the power grid, as heavy snow may accumulate on top of ice-coated trees and power lines. That combination could lead to significant damage, particularly in more remote and heavily forested areas.

For the Sudbury to Ottawa Valley corridor, freezing rain is expected to continue through the overnight hours with ice accumulation steadily increasing. This region is likely to see some of the worst overall impacts due to the length of time spent under freezing rain.

By late Monday morning, the next phase of the storm will unfold in the form of a flash freeze across Deep Southwestern Ontario. Rapidly falling temperatures will cause any remaining moisture to freeze quickly on untreated surfaces, creating extremely hazardous travel conditions.

As freezing rain ends across Central and Eastern Ontario and temperatures drop by Monday afternoon, the true extent of the damage will become clear. Current data suggests the hardest hit areas may include Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Haliburton, Bancroft, Tweed, Kaladar, Renfrew, Perth and Ottawa. Ice accretion in these regions may range from 15 to 20mm, with localized pockets potentially approaching 25mm.

In the Ottawa Valley, temperatures may not rise above freezing at all before the flash freeze arrives. This would lock ice in place for an extended period, worsening impacts. Farther south, a brief window above freezing may help slightly reduce overall damage.

A broader area of Central and Eastern Ontario, along with higher elevations northwest of the GTA and parts of Northeastern Ontario, can expect between 10 and 15mm of ice. This includes Brockville, Kitchener, Guelph, Newmarket, Barrie, Muskoka, Parry Sound, North Bay, Sudbury and Sault Ste. Marie.

Ice amounts will decrease closer to Lake Ontario and away from higher terrain. Between 5 and 10mm is possible from Kingston through the northern GTA and higher elevations around Hamilton and Grimsby. Less than 5mm is expected for Oshawa, Mississauga, Hamilton and Meaford. Little to no icing is expected near Lake Huron and Lake Ontario, where temperatures remain above freezing for most of the event.

While freezing rain will end, hazardous conditions will continue. By late Monday morning, rain will change to heavy snow around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Strengthening winds of 70 to 90 km/h will create dangerous travel conditions and likely meet blizzard criteria.

Combined with the flash freeze, widespread road closures are likely east of Lake Huron and into Northeastern Ontario. Travel should be avoided in these regions.

The strongest wind gusts are expected during the morning and afternoon on Monday before slowly easing in the evening. Areas exposed to the lakes will see the worst winds, with gusts of 95 to 110 km/h possible across the Niagara region and into Prince Edward County.

Near damaging gusts of 85 to 95 km/h are possible along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Kingston through the GTA and Hamilton, as well as along the Lake Erie and Lake Huron shorelines and southeast of Georgian Bay into Simcoe County and Orangeville.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario and southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, peak gusts of 75 to 85 km/h are expected. Farther north, including the Ottawa Valley, gusts will generally range from 65 to 75 km/h. While lower, these winds may cause greater damage due to occurring after significant ice accumulation.

Conditions will remain treacherous through Monday afternoon with strong winds and persistent snowfall, especially near the lakes, where blizzard conditions continue.

Snowfall totals associated with the main system will wrap up by Tuesday morning. Central Ontario and parts of Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron can expect 5 to 15cm of snow, with localized totals exceeding 15cm near Kincardine, Hanover and Owen Sound due to lake enhancement.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, snowfall amounts will generally range from 2 to 5cm.

In Northern Ontario, snowfall totals will be far more significant. The highest amounts are expected in Cochrane, Timmins, Chapleau and Kirkland Lake, where totals of 50 to 75cm are possible between Sunday evening and Tuesday morning.

A broader swath of Northeastern Ontario, including Wawa and Temiskaming Shores, may see 30 to 50cm. Areas such as Elliot Lake, Sault Ste. Marie and Kapuskasing could receive 20 to 30cm, while North Bay, Sudbury and Manitoulin Island are expected to pick up between 10 and 20cm.

December 26, 2025

Boxing Day Winter Storm Poised to Deliver Ice Storm Risk and Heavy Snow to Southern Ontario on Friday

December 26, 2025/ Brennen Perry

With Christmas now behind us, the focus turns to the final stretch of 2025 as we approach New Year’s next Thursday. And it’s looking like the last seven days of the year will be anything but quiet when it comes to the weather across Southern Ontario.

That active pattern becomes clear very quickly with a looming Boxing Day winter storm expected to bring a messy mix of precipitation. Some areas will see periods of heavy snowfall, while others could be dealing with a potentially damaging ice storm with prolonged freezing rain through much of the day.

For much of Central Ontario, along with parts of the Golden Horseshoe and into portions of Southeastern Ontario, the primary concern will be snowfall. Widespread totals in the 10 to 20 cm range are possible by the end of Friday. The Ottawa Valley is expected to remain on the lower end, generally staying under the 10 cm mark.

The forecast becomes more complicated through Southwestern Ontario, extending through Hamilton and into the Niagara Region. Here, a mix of snow and ice pellets is expected, which will limit snowfall totals but still create hazardous travel conditions.

The freezing rain risk has shifted slightly northward in the latest model guidance, as warmer air aloft is now expected to push deeper into Southern Ontario than earlier projections suggested. This places the Sarnia to London corridor in the bullseye for the highest ice accretion. Freezing rain totals of 10 to 15 mm are possible, which could result in significant power outages and very icy road conditions.

Beyond Friday, attention is already turning to another slow-moving system expected to arrive Sunday and linger into Monday. This system appears to have access to much more moisture compared to Friday’s storm, raising the concern for a prolonged period of freezing rain that could last anywhere from 12 to 24 hours.

What adds to the concern is that current model guidance is focusing this next threat over parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, the same areas that were hardest hit by last winter’s major ice storm. There is still uncertainty with the exact track, and it could shift north or south, but it is something we are watching very closely.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, the immediate focus remains on Friday’s storm. Precipitation is expected to begin during the early to mid-morning hours as bands move in from the west. Light to moderate snow will spread into Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, Muskoka and the GTA during this time.

For Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, light freezing rain is expected to begin by mid-morning. Precipitation may be somewhat scattered at first but will steadily increase in coverage and intensity as the morning progresses.

By late morning, the worst conditions should be underway, with heavy icing ongoing around Chatham, Sarnia and London. Travel conditions in these areas are expected to deteriorate quickly.

Further north and east, heavy snow will be the main concern across Muskoka, Simcoe County, Peterborough and the eastern GTA, including the City of Toronto.

Between the freezing rain to the southwest and the heavy snow to the north and east, a corridor of ice pellets is expected to develop from the Lake Huron shoreline through Kitchener and into Hamilton.

Poor conditions will persist into Friday afternoon, with steady snowfall continuing across Central Ontario into Kingston. Wind gusts approaching 40 km/h may lead to localized blowing snow, further reducing visibility at times.

The ice pellet zone may also push further into the GTA, with Toronto potentially switching over to ice pellets for a time. This would limit snowfall totals and keep them closer to the 10 cm range.

Sarnia and London are expected to remain locked into freezing rain through much of the afternoon. There may be some hope for the Chatham area, where temperatures could briefly rise just above freezing and allow a changeover to rain by mid-afternoon. However, this is right on the line and could still go either way. Windsor and Leamington are expected to remain solidly in the rain zone.

The system is expected to gradually wind down later Friday afternoon and into the early evening. Precipitation will taper off first across western areas, then slowly come to an end across the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario by late evening.

Based on the latest data, the highest ice storm concern has been focused on the Sarnia, Lambton, Middlesex and London corridor. While there is still some disagreement on exact intensity, the potential exists for ice accretion exceeding 10 mm, with localized amounts approaching 15 mm.

Communities included in this higher risk zone include Wallaceburg, Sarnia, Petrolia, Thamesville, Lambton Shores, Grand Bend, St. Thomas and London.

Across Essex County, the highest ice accretion is expected in the northern portions of the county, including Windsor and Tilbury. These areas could see 5 to 10 mm of ice before a changeover to rain. Closer to the Lake Erie shoreline, including Leamington, icing should be minimal, generally under 2 mm, as temperatures rise above freezing more quickly.

Further north, freezing rain amounts will be reduced as ice pellets dominate initially, with freezing rain gradually mixing in later. Locations such as Lucan, Exeter, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Simcoe, Port Colborne and Fort Erie could see a faster transition to freezing rain, with 5 to 10 mm of ice possible following a few hours of ice pellets.

For Huron and Perth counties, including Kitchener, Brantford and Niagara Falls, ice pellets are expected to linger longer. This will limit freezing rain to only a few hours near the end of the storm, with ice accretion generally in the 2 to 5 mm range. Less than 2 mm of icing is expected for Hamilton, Guelph and southern Grey-Bruce.

On the snowfall side of the storm, the highest totals are expected to range from 10 to 20 cm across Northeastern Ontario, down into Central Ontario and parts of Eastern Ontario.

This includes areas such as Sudbury, North Bay, Parry Sound, Muskoka, Simcoe County, York Region, Toronto, Durham Region, the Kawarthas, Peterborough and Kingston.

Lower snowfall totals are expected in the Ottawa Valley, where amounts of 2 to 5 cm are forecast for Ottawa and 5 to 10 cm from Bancroft into Brockville. This is due to the core of the system’s moisture remaining further south.

South of the heaviest snow band, totals will decrease as ice pellets mix in later in the storm. Grey-Bruce, Orangeville, Guelph and the western GTA are currently expected to see 5 to 10 cm, though some model solutions suggest even less if mixing becomes more dominant.

Even lower snowfall totals are expected east of Lake Huron into Hamilton and Niagara, where less than 5 cm is forecast as ice pellets and freezing rain become the primary precipitation types.

Once this system exits Friday night, Saturday should bring a brief period of calmer weather. However, that break will be short-lived, as another potentially high-impact winter storm is expected to approach as early as Sunday, possibly arriving in multiple waves.

The overall setup supports the potential for a prolonged area of freezing rain that could remain locked in place into Monday. This raises concern for a significant ice storm event, potentially similar in nature to last winter’s devastating storm across Central and Eastern Ontario.

Those same regions are once again in the early bullseye. While there is still time for this forecast to change, this is the type of setup where residents should begin thinking ahead and preparing for the possibility of extended power outages if the scenario does not improve.

We will continue to monitor this closely and will have a more detailed update once we get through Friday’s storm.

December 09, 2025

Back-to-Back Clippers To Deliver Up to 20cm of Snow Across Southern Ontario by Wednesday

December 09, 2025/ Brennen Perry

It has certainly been feeling a lot like winter over the last few weeks across Southern Ontario as the snow continues to pile up. Several clippers and rounds of lake effect snow have already delivered a healthy start to the season.

That trend shows no signs of slowing down as we enter the second week of December.

An Alberta clipper duo is set to slide through Southern Ontario back-to-back over the coming days. The second clipper arriving on Wednesday is expected to be the stronger of the two. Current indications suggest heavy snow combined with strong wind gusts may heavily impact the Wednesday morning commute.

By the time the second clipper wraps up late Wednesday, combined snowfall totals are expected to range from 10 to 20cm across a wide swath of Central, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario. Localized totals up to 25cm cannot be ruled out, especially if there is some lake enhancement.

Lower totals are expected along the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shorelines where temperatures may climb just enough for some rain to mix in later Wednesday morning. Around 4 to 8cm is possible for Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

In the wake of the clippers, we are also monitoring a potential prolonged snow squall risk beginning Wednesday evening and potentially continuing through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could be dealing with significant snowfall totals. There is still uncertainty regarding the exact placement of these bands.

Things will begin to kick off late Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as precipitation from our first clipper enters from the west. Widespread light to moderate snow will spread across Southwestern Ontario, the Lake Huron shoreline and into portions of Central Ontario and the GTA.

This snow is not expected to be particularly intense, although locally heavier pockets are possible through the Bruce Peninsula and into Sudbury where lake enhancement may add extra moisture to an otherwise dry system.

Steady snow will continue throughout the afternoon on Tuesday and into the evening. The story with this first clipper will be the steadiness of the snowfall rather than the intensity. Major routes should remain drivable, but expect a slower evening commute with light snow ongoing at the time.

**TOTAL SNOWFALL (CM) FROM CLIPPER #1** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

This clipper will begin to wind down later in the day on Tuesday with final amounts ranging from 2 to 8cm. The heaviest pockets will be east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For the rest of Southern Ontario, accumulation will fall on the lower end of that range.

However, do not let the lower totals by Tuesday evening lead you to let your guard down. Our next clipper is not far behind and will track toward Southern Ontario from the Midwest by late Tuesday evening.

Ahead of it, we may see a few hours of heavy snow squalls develop northeast of Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario. This could bring brief but heavy snow to areas like Parry Sound, Muskoka and Kingston.

Conditions will really begin to deteriorate with the second clipper as the bulk of the precipitation spreads into Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe right at the height of the Wednesday morning commute.

Some wet snow or even rain may mix in along the Lake Ontario and Erie shorelines which could suppress totals around the GTA and Niagara region.

The key difference with this clipper compared to the one 24 hours earlier is that the snowfall will arrive in a much shorter window instead of being spread throughout the day.

Hourly snowfall rates may reach 2 to 4cm through the London to Kitchener corridor. While the intense snow will not last long, just a few hours of that kind of snowfall can add up fast.

Winds are also expected to gust up to 60 km/h which combined with heavy snowfall could produce blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility. The morning commute is likely to be heavily impacted and school bus cancellations are quite possible on Wednesday.

The heaviest snowfall rates will not last long for Southwestern Ontario and the GTA as the 1+cm per hour rates shift into Central and Eastern Ontario by late morning.

Temperatures will also rise through the late morning and early afternoon which may allow some rain to mix in around the GTA and the Lake Erie shoreline.

And yet, that is only the beginning because as the second clipper exits the region late Wednesday, the lake effect snow machine is expected to fire back up quickly by Wednesday evening.

Current data shows a focus on the London, Huron, Grey-Bruce, Collingwood and Barrie areas Wednesday night. The lake effect risk may carry into Thursday and possibly into the weekend as very cold air settles across Southern Ontario.

It remains unclear whether the wind direction will become stable enough to allow long-lasting snow squalls, but if it does, we could be looking at staggering snowfall totals by next week.

We will have a more precise breakdown of the snow squall risk closer to Thursday once high resolution model data is available to pinpoint where the bands may focus.

Turning back to the combined snowfall totals from the two clippers, we expect a wide zone stretching across much of Central and Eastern Ontario and into Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron to end up around 10 to 20cm. There is potential for over-performance as some recent models have trended upward showing widespread 20 to 25cm. As clippers can sometimes struggle with moisture, we have undercut that slightly to better reflect the consensus.

One area where that moisture struggle may occur is southeast of Georgian Bay, including Barrie and York Region. Models show slightly lower totals of 6 to 8cm here, so we have placed those regions in a 5 to 10cm range. This 5 to 10cm zone also extends along the Hwy 401 corridor into Deep Southwestern Ontario and into the Ottawa region.

For regions directly along the Lake Ontario and Erie shorelines like Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton and St Catharines, snowfall may struggle to reach 5cm due to mixing potential and above freezing temperatures limiting accumulation.

Keep in mind that these are combined snowfall totals from both systems. Roughly 50-75 percent of the total will likely fall within a 6 hour period on Wednesday which is when conditions will be at their worst.

Additional snowfall is possible later Wednesday into Thursday with snow squall activity. Those amounts are not included in this map. A separate forecast will be issued on Wednesday for that.

November 29, 2025

Yet More Snow on the Way for Southern Ontario With a Snowy System on Sunday Bringing Up to 10-20cm

November 29, 2025/ Brennen Perry

As many communities in the snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay are currently digging out from locally over 50cm of snow from squalls over the past two days, another snow maker is already on the way, just in time for the final days of November.

Instead of very isolated pockets seeing intense snowfall totals as we have seen with the lake effect activity, this system will spread accumulating snow across almost all of Southern Ontario. Widespread totals by the end of the weekend are expected to range from 5 to 15cm, with locally as much as 20cm in the areas that remain colder for longer.

Snowfall is expected to begin moving in from the west by late Saturday evening, starting first across Deep Southwestern Ontario. By the middle of the overnight, steady light to moderate snowfall will extend across almost all of Southern Ontario as the system further progresses into our region.

By late Sunday morning, southwesterly winds flowing across the still warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are expected to push temperatures several degrees above freezing along the northern shorelines. This may allow the last remaining few hours of precipitation to switch over to rain for some communities right along the lakeshore.

There could also be a lake effect component to this system as it departs our region to the east. As this happens later in the day on Sunday, we may see locally heavier pockets of lake effect snow develop east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, which also happens to include some of the same areas hit hard by the squalls over the last few days. This could push weekend totals into the 20 to 25cm range, especially if these bands linger longer into Sunday night.

Looking ahead to the start of the week, Monday should be fairly quiet as the lake effect activity tapers off early in the morning and the remaining flurries from the system fizzle out. It will certainly be colder with everyone seeing temperatures plunge below freezing. However, that calm weather may be short-lived.

There are early indications of another potential system sliding south of the Great Lakes region. Depending on the track, this could bring another round of heavy snow throughout the early part of Tuesday, especially for areas further southeast.

The initial bands of snowfall associated with the weekend system will begin to enter Southwestern Ontario from the west sometime just after the dinner hour on Saturday.

For most areas, the snowfall should be fairly light at first, but some models are showing the potential for several hours of heavier snowfall rates approaching 2 to 4cm per hour for Windsor, Leamington and Chatham. This could lead to a quick 5 to 10cm by the end of the night if the heavier bursts materialize.

As we head into the overnight hours, the system is expected to continue spreading eastward across Southern Ontario, with almost all areas seeing steady snowfall by the middle of the overnight.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be overly extreme, with most regions seeing less than 1cm per hour through Sunday morning. Even still, this snowfall is expected to continue for 6 to 12 hours, which will allow the totals to gradually build up.

Because the snow will be more widespread and less intense than recent squall activity, road crews should be able to keep up with the conditions on most major routes. Travel delays are still likely, so if you do need to drive, be sure to leave plenty of extra time and adjust your speed based on the conditions.

Winds are expected to pick up through the later part of Sunday morning, coming out of the southwest, and flowing across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This will push warmer air into the northern shorelines, which may allow the snow to switch over to rain directly along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines.

Due to this transition, slightly lower snowfall totals are expected here, and some areas may struggle to reach the 5cm mark. This includes the Greater Toronto Area near the lakeshore, along with Port Colborne, Norfolk County, Tillsonburg, St. Thomas and Rondeau.

The system is expected to gradually taper off through Sunday afternoon, leaving scattered flurries in its wake into the evening. This leftover precipitation is likely to be enhanced by Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through Sunday evening and into the overnight hours.

Expect an additional 5 to 10cm of snowfall on top of the system totals in the areas that see lake effect enhancement. This could push the end-of-weekend totals to locally as much as 20 to 25cm in the traditional snowbelt regions.

When it comes to the distribution of precipitation, we expect it to fall fairly evenly across the province. However, snowfall totals will vary based on temperature differences, which will influence how efficiently the snow can accumulate.

The higher snowfall totals from this event are expected in the more northern sections of Central Ontario and extending into the Sudbury and North Bay region. This includes Parry Sound, Muskoka, Algonquin Park and Bancroft.

These regions will see more sustained below freezing temperatures throughout the event, along with lake effect enhancement late Sunday. With this, we are looking at around 10 to 20cm, with locally up to 25cm possible in the heavier lake effect pockets.

A similar situation is expected east of Lake Huron and along the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands and Oak Ridges Moraine, where slightly colder temperatures will help accumulations. Expect 10 to 20cm in these areas as well, with localized totals around 25cm, especially east of Lake Huron.

Everyone else, with the exception of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, is looking at a general 5 to 10cm. Some areas could see locally up to 15cm if temperatures end up just a bit cooler than expected. This includes the rest of Southwestern Ontario into Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, the Lake Simcoe region and parts of the Ottawa Valley.

For communities exposed to the shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which includes Toronto, Oshawa, Oakville, Hamilton, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Colborne and Rondeau, snowfall totals will likely be closer to the 2 to 5cm range due to the warmer air intrusion and rain mixing during the latter part of the system.

As we look into next week, we are closely watching another potential system that could have an impact on Southern Ontario throughout the day on Tuesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact track, with the latest model runs shifting it slightly further north, which would increase impacts across a wider portion of the region. However, it could easily shift back south.

At this point, we can say there is a decent chance of 5cm or more across a wide stretch of Southern Ontario, with the highest probability being further southeast, including the Niagara region and communities along the St. Lawrence River. Be prepared for possible impacts to the Tuesday morning commute, including the potential for school bus cancellations if the system trends stronger.

Expect possible impacts to the morning commute on Tuesday, including possible school bus cancellations, should we see a stronger system.

November 27, 2025

BIG CHANGES Coming to Environment Canada’s Alerts Beginning Today

November 27, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is making big changes to the way it issues weather alerts, in an attempt to make them easier to understand at a glance.

Starting today, Wednesday, November 26th, 2025, the new system will use Yellow, Orange or Red colours for all 'Advisories', 'Watches' and 'Warnings'.

'Statements' will remain unchanged (blue or grey), for now.

Environment Canada is making this change to hopefully help you quickly gauge both the severity of a weather event and the level of confidence forecasters have in their predictions.

Shown in the chart above, Environment Canada forecasters will choose the colour of alerts based on an "Impact" level and a "Confidence" level.

Here’s a breakdown of the upcoming changes and what they mean for you.

Headline Changes

Currently, weather alert headlines look like this:

Heat Warning

Under the new system, the headline will include a colour code that signals risk. For example:

Yellow Level Warning – Heat

We at Instant Weather feel that something about "Yellow Level Warning – Heat Issued" looks… strange and extra confusing.

Therefore, when we post Environment Canada alerts to social media, send notifications via our free app, and send out text message alerts, we're going to format it like this:

Heat Warning (Yellow Level) Issued

We believe this will make the transition from the old format to the new format easier for our community members. However, we'd love to hear your feedback on this so please let us know what you think about it!

NEW COLOURS

For the first time, advisories, watches and warnings will come in one of three colour options:

- Yellow = low risk (stay alert)

- Orange = moderate risk (take precautions)

- Red = high risk (serious danger)

Impact Level

The new Impact Level will estimate how much damage or disruption a storm is likely to cause.

Possible values:

- Low

- Moderate

- High

- Extreme

For example, a minor snowfall could be flagged as low impact, while a hurricane might carry an extreme impact designation.

Confidence Level

The new Confidence Level should help clarify how confident the Environment Canada forecaster issuing the alert feels.

Possible values:

- Low

- Moderate

- High

- Very High

For example, a “very high confidence” alert means there's near zero question if the storm poses a threat to the alerted area, while a “low confidence” could suggest that path may shift direction or the storm could dissipate.

Why These Changes Matter

Environment Canada believes these updates make weather alerts more actionable and accessible. Instead of vague warnings, you’ll know:

- The severity of the threat (colour level).

- The expected damage (impact level).

- The certainty of the forecast (confidence level).

For further details on these alert changes, visit Environment Canada’s newly launched website regarding colour-coded alerts:

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/severeweather/weather-alerts/colour-coded-alerts.html

November 25, 2025

Winter Storm Targets Northern Ontario This Week as Intense Snow Squalls Line Up for Southern Ontario Starting Thursday

November 25, 2025/ Brennen Perry

A powerful system will sweep through the Great Lakes region this week, bringing a major winter storm to Northern Ontario and setting the stage for a significant snow squall event across Southern Ontario later in the week.

Across Northern Ontario, snowfall will begin to move into regions east of Lake Superior by late Tuesday. Light snow will start from Wawa through Timmins, gradually expanding north and west. Through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning, the system will push into Thunder Bay, Kapuskasing and surrounding communities.

The worst conditions are expected throughout the day on Wednesday. Winds will gust between 40 and 60 km/h, and when combined with heavy snowfall rates, visibility will deteriorate quickly. Blowing snow will be widespread across Northeastern Ontario and conditions may even reach blizzard levels at times.

Treacherous travel conditions will continue into Wednesday night and persist through Thursday morning as the storm deepens. Snowfall intensity will gradually ease later on Thursday, but steady snow will continue as the system stalls over Quebec. This will push long lasting bands of precipitation back into Northeastern Ontario, keeping snow going until early Friday morning.

By the time the storm fully exits, a wide swath of Northeastern Ontario is expected to receive 20 to 50 cm of snow, with localized totals possibly exceeding that. The heaviest totals are expected from Marathon through Kapuskasing, Cochrane, Timmins, and Temiskaming Shores, Wawa, Hearst and Chapleau. Snowfall totals here will range from 30 to 50cm with possibly as much as 60cm in localized pockets.

While Northern Ontario deals with the winter storm, Southern Ontario will be on the warm side of the system on Tuesday and Wednesday. Many areas will flirt with the double digits, especially in Southwestern Ontario. Scattered showers will develop early Tuesday with light rainfall amounts of roughly 5 to 10 mm.

By late Wednesday, though, the pattern begins to shift as cold air wraps in behind the departing system. Temperatures will drop quickly, and any lingering precipitation will change to wet snow by Wednesday evening.

This colder air will set the stage for lake effect snow to fire up. With a westerly wind overnight on Wednesday, snow squalls may begin to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

These early bands could bring bursts of heavy snow to Grey Bruce, Parry Sound and Muskoka through Thursday afternoon, although the exact intensity remains uncertain as the higher resolution models are just entering range and showing stronger signals than the medium range guidance.

By late Thursday, winds will shift to a northwest flow. Temperatures will drop further into the negatives and this will allow squalls to strengthen. The Georgian Bay band is expected to sink south into Simcoe County and then extend into Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough.

At the same time, the Lake Huron band will slide south into Huron County and stretch toward Kitchener and the western GTA. Some early guidance even hints that this band could link up with the flow off Lake Superior, which can enhance snowfall rates.

Heading into Friday, it is still too early to give precise band placement. Current thinking suggests the northwest flow will hold through much of the day before winds start easing over the weekend. If that happens, squalls could remain active for an extended period.

While details can still shift, we are beginning to narrow down regions with the highest risk of heavy snowfall starting Thursday morning and continuing into Friday evening. Squalls will shift around at times, so snowfall will not be constant, but those under the core of the bands could see snowfall rates approaching 5 to 10 cm per hour. It will not take long for the snow to accumulate.

At this stage, exact totals are not possible to predict for Southern Ontario. However, some regions could easily see 25 to 50 cm by Friday night, with the potential for higher localized totals once high-resolution data comes into range.

For Lake Huron, our current focus areas include Kincardine, Goderich, Hanover, Kitchener, Hamilton and Orangeville.

For Georgian Bay, our primary targets include Midland, Barrie, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Orillia, Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough.

Anyone living in or near these regions should be prepared for dangerous travel conditions beginning Thursday. School bus cancellations are likely for some regions, and road closures are possible if squalls remain intense or stationary.

November 06, 2025

Southern Ontario to Plunge Into Winter as Sunday Snowstorm Could Dump Up to 20 cm of Snow

November 06, 2025/ Brennen Perry

It feels like just yesterday we were talking about record-breaking heat that stretched well into October. But November has been a completely different story, with winter now making its presence known across Southern Ontario. Those warm late-autumn days are coming back to haunt us, as the still-warm lakes are setting the stage for a series of snowy chances in the days ahead, including the lake effect snow machine coming to life.

Cold Arctic air is set to flood into the province, bringing several snowmakers with it, including a potential snowstorm on Sunday, followed by intense snow squalls early next week.

Our first system arrives on Friday, spreading across Ontario throughout the day. Southern Ontario will mainly see rain from this one, while Northern Ontario braces for a significant dumping of snow. Some areas could see close to 20 cm by Saturday.

As colder air rushes in behind this system, temperatures will plunge across Southern Ontario through Saturday night. By Sunday, much of the region will be below freezing, setting the stage for the next system expected to move in during the day Sunday. Early indications suggest that parts of Southern Ontario could see significant snowfall from this system, with totals possibly reaching up to 20 cm by Sunday night.

That said, there’s still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the exact track of the storm. A slightly more southern route could pull the heaviest snow into the Greater Toronto Area as colder air dips farther south.

The first round of precipitation will begin in Northwestern Ontario late Thursday, spreading across Northeastern and Southern Ontario by Friday morning.

**RAINFALL TOTALS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

For most of Southern Ontario, this will mean a steady rainfall, with totals around 5 to 10 mm, although localized pockets near the lakes could see closer to 15 mm.

**SNOWFALL TOTALS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Higher elevations in Central Ontario, including Algonquin Park, could see some wet flurries mix in at times. Farther north, around Hearst, Kapuskasing, Cochrane, and Timmins, it’s all snow, with totals of 15 to 20 cm possible by Saturday morning.

Behind the system, much colder air will spill into Central Ontario overnight Friday into Saturday, dropping temperatures well below freezing. The rest of Southern Ontario will see the chill arrive soon after, with most regions seeing their daytime highs recorded just after midnight Saturday before temperatures tumble through the day.

By early Sunday morning, the cold will be firmly in place. Most areas will be below freezing, except for parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Ontario shoreline where temperatures will hover just above zero.

This cold setup will pave the way for Sunday’s incoming system. Models are in disagreement about the storm’s path, which will ultimately decide who gets the heaviest snow. The American and Canadian models track the low across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, placing the rain-snow line near the GTA.

In this scenario, areas north of the GTA, including parts of Southwestern Ontario, Lake Simcoe, and the Ottawa Valley, would see heavy snow, while the GTA experiences a mix of rain, ice pellets, and wet snow.

Even a small shift southward, as suggested by the European model, would change everything. That track takes the low through Pennsylvania and Upstate New York, shifting the heaviest snowfall into the GTA and surrounding regions, with totals over 15 cm.

In this case, the snow would stretch from London through the GTA, Peterborough, and into Ottawa, while Central Ontario and Grey-Bruce see lower amounts.

For now, most models favour the northern track, so that’s what we’re leaning toward in our preliminary forecast. But if the European solution proves right, those snowfall zones could shift south before the final forecast is issued.

Under the current setup, the heaviest snow is expected across a broad stretch of Southwestern Ontario, including the Lake Huron shoreline through Kitchener and up toward Barrie, Lindsay, and Peterborough, extending into the Ottawa Valley. These areas could see 10 to 15 cm of snow, with localized pockets near 20 cm possible.

The American NAM model is even more aggressive, suggesting up to 30 cm in some areas, though that’s likely overdone. The London area, GTA, and Eastern Ontario fall into a mixing zone, with 5 to 10 cm possible once precipitation switches to snow. Should the system shift farther south, those totals could increase.

Farther south, places like Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, and the Niagara Region are expected to stay mostly rain, though a slushy 5 cm of snow is possible.

Snowfall will taper off by late Sunday, but the story won’t end there. Behind the storm, a strong surge of cold air over the still-warm Great Lakes will ignite a burst of lake-effect snow squalls on Monday.

The exact regions that will see the most intense squalls remain uncertain until higher-resolution models come into range, but areas downwind of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay should prepare for the potential of significant accumulations. Some communities could be digging out from 25 cm or more by early next week.

March 23, 2025

Spring Snowstorm Could Dump Up to 20cm of Snow on Parts of Southern Ontario to Start the Week

March 23, 2025/ Brennen Perry

After an active month of wintry weather across Southern Ontario, March has taken a much calmer turn, bringing spring-like temperatures and even double-digit highs in some areas. However, don’t be fooled by the recent warmth—winter isn’t quite done with us yet. Despite what the calendar says, a surge of colder air will take over for the final days of March, setting the stage for a late-season snowstorm on the horizon.

An organized system is expected to bring heavy snow to parts of Southern Ontario starting late Sunday evening and continuing into Monday. Mixed precipitation will likely limit snowfall accumulation along the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shorelines. However, further north, particularly around Georgian Bay, lake enhancement could boost totals, with some areas seeing 10-20 cm of snow. This storm could bring the most substantial snowfall in weeks, potentially impacting the Monday morning commute.

In addition to the snow, strong winds will develop on Monday morning and afternoon, with gusts reaching 50 to 70 km/h. This will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially in areas prone to drifting, such as Grey-Bruce.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The messy weather is set to arrive Sunday evening, with the first bands of precipitation moving into Southwestern Ontario. However, the forecast remains tricky due to overnight warming temperatures. Some areas will start off with wet snow before transitioning to rain, especially near Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

For Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, and the Niagara region, snowfall will likely be limited as these areas will see mainly rain or a quick changeover from snow to rain after only a few hours. London, Goderich, and Kitchener will see more prolonged snowfall through the overnight hours, though freezing rain and ice pellets may mix in at times.

The heaviest snow is expected to move into Central and Eastern Ontario by the pre-dawn hours of Monday, with several hours of steady snowfall along the leading edge of the system. However, since temperatures will be rising overnight, some of this snow may struggle to accumulate, particularly on road surfaces. Areas near the Lake Ontario shoreline may also see a mix of snow, rain, and ice pellets rather than steady snowfall.

By Monday morning, snow will continue spreading northeast, reaching the Ottawa Valley by sunrise. Given the timing, the snow could create challenging travel conditions during the morning commute, with reduced visibility and slushy roads. School bus cancellations may be possible in rural parts of Central and Eastern Ontario.

While the widespread snowfall will taper off by late morning or early afternoon, lingering snow is expected around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, where lake enhancement could lead to heavier localized snowfall. Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound, and North Bay will be among the hardest-hit areas, with additional accumulations into Monday night.

Meanwhile, for Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, the bulk of the snow will be finished by midday Monday. However, light lake-effect snow will persist in the snowbelt regions throughout the rest of Monday into Tuesday. Some weak snow squalls could occasionally drift into Eastern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), but accumulation will be minimal outside of the snowbelt zones.

By the time the system exits Monday evening, the highest snowfall totals will likely be in Bruce Peninsula, northeast Georgian Bay, and Northern Ontario, including Tobermory, Manitoulin Island, Sudbury, Parry Sound, North Bay, and Huntsville. These areas are expected to see 10-20 cm, with locally higher amounts possible.

That said, above-freezing temperatures for several hours on Monday could lead to melting and compacting of the snow, potentially reducing overall accumulations from what falls initially.

For Central Ontario, including Kitchener, Orangeville, Hanover, Owen Sound, Collingwood, Midland, Orillia, Bracebridge, and Bancroft, snowfall totals will generally range between 5-10 cm by Monday evening. However, some areas east of Lake Huron may see slightly higher totals, depending on lake enhancement.

For the Ottawa Valley, Southwestern Ontario, and the Golden Horseshoe away from the lakeshores, accumulations will likely stay under 5 cm. These areas may see a few centimetres of wet snow Sunday night, but overall, nothing significant is expected.

Regions directly along the Lake Ontario and Erie shorelines, as well as Deep Southwestern Ontario, will see little to no snowfall as rain or mixed precipitation will dominate.

Beyond Monday, lake-effect snow will persist into Tuesday, mainly affecting areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, where localized snow squalls could bring a few extra centimetres.

February 15, 2025

Strongest Snowstorm in Years to Bury Southern Ontario in Up to 50cm of Snow on Sunday

February 15, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Brace yourself, Southern Ontario! One of the biggest snowfalls in recent years is on the horizon for many parts of the region—excluding the usual snowbelt areas. This includes major cities like Toronto, Kingston, and Ottawa, which have largely dodged significant snowstorms over the past few years due to milder winters.

That streak ended earlier this week with the first storm in this parade of systems, dropping a widespread 20 cm or more across Southern Ontario. However, that system could pale in comparison to what’s coming next. This stronger storm is likely to bring 30 cm or more to a large portion of the region throughout Sunday.

As of Saturday afternoon, the first round of snow has already arrived, bringing steady snowfall from Southwestern Ontario into the Golden Horseshoe. This initial wave will be just the beginning, with up to 10 to 15 cm expected by the end of the day.

The second and much more intense round of precipitation will begin early Sunday morning as the system taps into tropical Gulf moisture and directs it straight into the Great Lakes region.

By morning and into the afternoon, conditions will deteriorate rapidly, with snowfall rates reaching 4 to 8 cm per hour. When combined with moderately strong wind gusts, this will lead to widespread blowing snow, significantly reduced visibility, and even localized blizzard conditions.

By the time the snow begins to taper off late Sunday, widespread totals of 30 to 50 cm are expected across Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into the Greater Toronto Area. The hardest-hit areas could even exceed 50 cm, particularly in Eastern Ontario, where elevation may enhance accumulation. Meanwhile, locations along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Niagara, and Chatham, may see lower snowfall totals due to potential mixing with freezing rain or ice pellets.

The first round of snow will continue steadily across Southern Ontario through Saturday evening and past midnight, with heavier snowfall targeting the Golden Horseshoe and the southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario.

At the same time, the second round of snow will be rapidly developing south of the Great Lakes, forming over Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. This storm will strengthen quickly as it begins pulling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which is also fueling severe thunderstorms across the southern U.S.

While there may be a brief lull overnight, don’t let it fool you—the worst is still ahead. The heaviest snowfall will begin to push into Southwestern Ontario before sunrise, bringing a rapid increase in snowfall rates from 1 to 2 cm per hour earlier in the night to 2 to 4 cm per hour by the early morning.

As the system intensifies, hourly rates of 4 to 6 cm—potentially even higher in the strongest bands—are expected. Road conditions will deteriorate quickly, with significantly reduced visibility and heavy blowing snow making travel extremely hazardous.

Most areas will remain on the snowy side of this system, but there is some uncertainty regarding how far north a warm layer could push. This could lead to a brief period of ice pellets or freezing rain in areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, St. Thomas, Tillsonburg, Hamilton, and Niagara Falls.

While significant freezing rain is not expected, some minor ice accretion of a few millimetres could occur, particularly right along the shoreline.

By early to mid-morning Sunday, the storm’s intensity will peak across Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, with snowfall rates reaching 4 to 6 cm per hour in many areas. In the strongest bands, these rates could climb even higher, creating whiteout conditions.

Wind gusts of 40 to 60 km/h will further reduce visibility, and there is even the possibility of thundersnow as some of these snow bands intensify.

Meanwhile, areas farther north, including regions around Lake Simcoe, Peterborough, and into the Ottawa Valley, will begin to see snowfall intensities climb to 1 to 2 cm per hour, eventually reaching 5 to 10 cm per hour by the early afternoon

**HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The later part of Sunday morning after sunrise will see the worst conditions through Southwestern Ontario into the GTA as snowfall rates increase even further towards 4 to 6cm and possibility even higher in the strongest pockets of snow.

This snow will also be accompanied by increasing wind gusts near 40 to 60 km/h leading to blowing snow and blizzard conditions. Don’t be surprised to see some thundersnow during the morning as these bands of snow will be quite strong and could produce some lightning as they move through the region.

Snowfall intensity will also gradually increase through Central and Eastern Ontario with hourly snowfall rates reaching 1-2cm per hour around Lake Simcoe through Peterbough and into the Ottawa Valley.

As the system continues to push eastward, the most intense snowfall rates will shift into Central and Eastern Ontario. This is when travel will become nearly impossible in these areas as plows struggle to keep up with the rapid accumulation.

For Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, conditions will begin to improve slightly in the afternoon as the heaviest snow moves east. However, steady snowfall of 1 to 3 cm per hour will continue through much of the afternoon, with strong winds still blowing around earlier accumulations and keeping visibility low.

Snow will gradually taper off across Central and Eastern Ontario by Sunday evening, but blowing snow will remain a significant issue overnight. Travel will remain difficult even after the snowfall ends, particularly in areas with open terrain where drifting will be an issue.

By Monday, conditions should improve, but significantly colder air will move in. If possible, clearing snow on Sunday before temperatures drop is strongly recommended, as the snow will become much heavier to shovel once it settles and freezes.

**ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The strongest wind gusts will be found in Eastern Ontario, peaking during the early to mid-afternoon. Widespread gusts of 50 to 70 km/h are expected, with some areas, particularly around Ottawa and to the east, possibly seeing gusts near 80 km/h.

In comparison, the rest of Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, will experience gusts of 40 to 60 km/h, while Southwestern Ontario will likely see gusts under 40 km/h.

These wind speeds combined with the extreme snowfall rates expected across Eastern Ontario will almost certainly lead to blizzard conditions.

For a storm to meet the official criteria for a blizzard, winds of 40 km/h or greater must cause widespread reductions in visibility to 400 meters or less due to blowing and falling snow for at least four consecutive hours.

Based on current model data, it is highly likely that visibility will remain near zero for at least six hours from late morning to early/mid-afternoon in many parts of Eastern Ontario, surpassing the official blizzard threshold.

While it remains uncertain whether areas such as the GTA, Lake Simcoe, and Muskoka will officially reach blizzard criteria, blowing snow will still cause significant travel disruptions regardless of classification.

Regardless of whether your area officially meets blizzard criteria, this storm will create extremely dangerous travel conditions across much of Southern Ontario throughout Sunday.

Roads will become impassable at times, and even major highways will be difficult to navigate. Plows will struggle to keep up with the rapid accumulation, making travel nearly impossible in the worst-hit areas. If you don’t absolutely need to be on the roads, it is strongly advised to stay home.

By the time the storm ends, the highest snowfall totals will be found across Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into portions of the GTA, with widespread accumulations ranging from 30 to 50 cm. Some areas, particularly in Eastern Ontario near Ottawa and through higher elevations to the west, could exceed 50 cm.

Regions around Lake Simcoe and the northern GTA will likely end up with 30 to 40 cm, though locally higher amounts are possible in areas such as the Dundalk Highlands. The Hamilton region and western GTA may see slightly lower totals, around 20 to 30 cm, due to the potential for ice pellets mixing in at times.

Southwestern Ontario, particularly along the Lake Huron shoreline, will see slightly less snowfall, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm. This includes areas such as Sarnia, London, Goderich, Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound, and North Bay. However, if the system strengthens earlier than expected, some of these locations could still exceed 30 cm.

Meanwhile, the lowest totals will be found along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Chatham, and the Niagara region, where snowfall will range from 10 to 20 cm.

Looking ahead, colder temperatures are expected to settle into Southern Ontario by Monday. It would be wise to clear as much snow as possible on Sunday before the deep freeze sets in, as the snow will become significantly harder to move once temperatures drop.

Additionally, this colder air may trigger a resurgence of lake-effect snow early next week, which could lead to further significant snowfall accumulations in the typical snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. More details on that will come in a separate forecast.

This storm will be a major event, and conditions will be dangerous. If possible, stay home and avoid travel. We will continue to monitor the latest data and provide updates as needed. Stay safe!

February 14, 2025

Intense Snowstorm Could Bring Blizzard Conditions and Up to 30-60cm of Snow to Southern Ontario This Weekend

February 14, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The snowy weather isn’t letting up as yet another winter storm takes aim at Southern Ontario over the Family Day long weekend. This system will arrive in multiple waves, beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday. By the time it moves out late Sunday, much of Southern Ontario could be buried under as much as 60 cm of snow.

Strong winds will develop throughout Sunday morning into the afternoon, with gusts reaching 50 to 80 km/h in some areas. These powerful winds, combined with heavy snowfall, will create dangerous whiteout conditions and may even reach blizzard criteria. Travel is expected to become difficult as early as Saturday morning, with conditions steadily worsening through the night and into Sunday.

The most hazardous conditions are expected Sunday morning and afternoon, as intense snowfall rates are combined with strong wind gusts, making all non-essential travel extremely dangerous. Highway closures are highly likely in the hardest-hit regions as plows struggle to keep up with rapid snowfall rates, while blowing and drifting snow significantly reduces visibility.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm's exact track, which will determine where the heaviest snowfall occurs. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and possibly parts of the Golden Horseshoe could see periods of freezing rain or ice pellets by late Sunday morning. While this would create its own hazards, any mixing would also lower overall snowfall totals.

As of now, Eastern and parts of Central Ontario appear to be in line for the highest snowfall amounts. Combined two-day snowfall totals could range from 30 to 60 cm by Sunday night, with 5-10 cm expected on Saturday and an additional 25-50 cm possible on Sunday.

The storm will get underway Saturday morning as steady snow moves into Deep Southwestern Ontario from Michigan. It will spread into London and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) by late morning. Some light flurries may reach Central and Eastern Ontario, but the more persistent snowfall will remain south of Lake Simcoe.

At this stage, conditions may not seem too severe, leading to the false impression that the storm has been overhyped. However, don’t be fooled—snowfall rates will gradually increase through the afternoon, reaching 1-2 cm per hour and steadily accumulating.

By mid-afternoon Saturday, light to moderate snowfall will have spread across most of Southern Ontario. The heaviest snowfall will be concentrated over Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, while Central and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, may only see scattered flurries.

There are indications that parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario—including Windsor, Chatham, and possibly London—may see a transition to ice pellets or freezing rain. Meanwhile, Kitchener, Hamilton, and the GTA should remain primarily snow.

Heading into the evening, the storm’s moisture supply will intensify as it taps into the Gulf of Mexico, keeping snow steady across Southern Ontario. However, Central and Eastern Ontario may experience more scattered snowfall during this time. The most persistent snow bands are expected to set up along the Windsor-London-Hamilton corridor.

Some mixing could still occur near the Lake Erie shoreline, particularly in Leamington and the southern Niagara region, though it remains uncertain how far inland it may extend. If the mixing line pushes north, areas such as Windsor could also see freezing rain.

By the end of Saturday, snowfall totals are expected to range from 5 to 10 cm across much of Southern Ontario, with locally higher amounts of up to 15 cm in areas benefiting from lake enhancement like Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see lower totals, between 2 and 5 cm, as the first wave of snow stays focused farther south.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight Saturday as even more moisture-laden precipitation moves in from Michigan. Snowfall rates will increase during the pre-dawn hours, starting in the southwest around midnight before progressing east and north through the morning.

There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the extent of mixing along the Lake Erie shoreline, but there is a possibility of significant ice accretion in parts of Windsor and the Niagara region.

By late Sunday morning, the system is expected to intensify rapidly as the low-pressure center tracks south of the Great Lakes. This intensification will result in significantly higher snowfall rates, especially in the GTA, Niagara region, and Central Ontario, including Barrie, Muskoka, and Peterborough.

Snowfall rates could reach 5-10 cm per hour, making it impossible for road crews to keep up. Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see steady snow increase throughout Sunday afternoon and into the early evening.

Adding to the severity of the storm, strong wind gusts of 50-80 km/h will develop through Sunday morning, with the highest gusts expected in Central and Eastern Ontario. These winds, combined with intense snowfall rates, will almost certainly lead to blizzard conditions in some areas.

Visibility will be near zero, with blowing and drifting snow making travel dangerous. All non-essential travel should be avoided on Sunday morning and afternoon, as highway closures are likely in the hardest-hit regions. With snow falling at rates of 5-10 cm per hour, it will be extremely easy to become stranded, as plows will struggle to keep roads passable.

Despite being less than 48 hours away, there is still some uncertainty in the storm's track and timing. Different forecast models continue to show varying scenarios, which could impact snowfall totals and the extent of mixing.

The short-range American model (HRRR), which provides detailed hourly forecasts, aligns closely with the Canadian and European models. These models suggest a more southern track, keeping the GTA and much of Southern Ontario primarily in the snow zone.

However, another American model (NAM) suggests a more northern track with a later arrival. If this scenario plays out, the mixing line would shift farther north, bringing ice pellets or freezing rain from London to Hamilton and into the GTA. This would reduce snowfall totals in these areas but create hazardous icy conditions.

This model also suggests the mixing could extend along the Lake Ontario shoreline into parts of Southeastern Ontario, including Belleville, Kingston, and Brockville. While this scenario is less likely, it’s still worth monitoring.

Additionally, the NAM model points to a significant icing event for Hamilton and the Niagara region, with potential ice accretion of 10-15 mm. If this happens, localized power outages and tree damage could occur.

The model also suggests that while some forecasts indicate the heaviest snow will arrive early Sunday, this scenario shifts the worst conditions to the afternoon in Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, extending into the evening for Eastern Ontario.

Regardless of the final track, conditions should improve as snow tapers off from west to east late Sunday evening, with lingering snow in Eastern Ontario into early Monday morning. However, lake-effect snow could quickly develop around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as the system exits.

By the time this storm is over, a wide swath of Eastern and Central Ontario could see 30-60 cm of fresh snow, including the accumulation from both Saturday and Sunday.

For Southwestern Ontario and the GTA—including Sarnia, London, Kitchener, Hamilton, and Toronto—snowfall totals will likely range from 20-40 cm. However, if mixing occurs on Sunday, snowfall amounts could drop to 15-30 cm or even lower, depending on how extensive the ice pellets or freezing rain become.

The lowest snowfall totals will likely be in Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Erie shoreline, where freezing rain and ice pellets will reduce overall accumulation. Areas such as Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, St. Thomas, and Niagara Falls could see between 15-30 cm of snow, depending on how much mixing occurs.

We are closely monitoring the latest forecast data and will provide a more detailed breakdown of Sunday’s snowfall totals in an updated forecast on Saturday. Stay tuned for further updates.

February 11, 2025

High Impact Winter Storm on the Way for Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday With Up to 40cm of Snow & Freezing Rain

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Confidence is growing that Southern Ontario is on track for what could be the most widespread and significant winter storm of the season so far. That said, there hasn’t been much competition in that regard, as most of this winter’s snowfall has come from localized snow squalls. However, a shift in the weather pattern has placed the region in an active storm track, and Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time delivering a disruptive winter storm right in the middle of the week.

Earlier, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the system, which would have influenced snowfall amounts in different areas. However, in the past 24 hours, forecast models have begun to align on a more consistent storm track. Interestingly, the latest data supports what we initially projected, meaning there hasn’t been a major shift in the forecast.

Widespread snowfall accumulations of 20 to 40 cm are expected from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley between Wednesday and Thursday. In the Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario, precipitation will likely begin as snow, but there is potential for ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain to mix in. This could limit snowfall totals, especially along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, where temperatures may hover near the freezing mark.

For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the extent of mixing remains a key uncertainty. It could go either way. Right now, we’re forecasting 10 to 20 cm of snow, but if the mixing line stays south, snowfall amounts could surpass expectations, reaching 25 to 30 cm.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and extending into the Niagara region, models suggest several hours of freezing rain Wednesday evening and overnight. Some localized areas could see ice accretion of 2 to 5 mm, leading to slippery, untreated surfaces and hazardous road conditions.

The storm is expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon, with scattered precipitation moving into Southwestern Ontario between 2 and 4 PM. While most areas will initially see snow, some models are aggressive in bringing freezing rain into Windsor and Chatham by late afternoon.

Before the main storm arrives, lake-effect snow may develop off Lake Ontario, affecting the Burlington and Hamilton corridor Wednesday morning into early afternoon. System snow should reach the GTA just before the evening rush hour, making for a difficult commute.

The latest model data has also increased wind projections, with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall, this could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Non-essential travel should be avoided starting in the late afternoon, with conditions deteriorating further into the evening.

By mid to late evening, snow will have spread across most of Southern Ontario, including Central and Eastern Ontario. A key feature to monitor will be the movement of the mixing line.

Current data shows a freezing rain corridor stretching from Leamington through Chatham and along the Lake Erie shoreline, with a narrow band of ice pellets from Windsor through just south of London and into Hamilton.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Sarnia, London, Kitchener, and the GTA. Snowfall rates will intensify after 9–10 PM, increasing from 1–2 cm per hour to 2–4 cm per hour. This will make it challenging for snowplows to keep up.

After midnight, the mixing line may push north into parts of the GTA, bringing ice pellets and freezing rain to locations such as London, Burlington, Mississauga, and Toronto for several hours. However, this transition looks to be confined near the Lake Ontario shoreline, meaning snowfall will likely dominate farther inland.

Freezing rain will continue across Windsor and along the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara region, while heavy snow steadily blankets Central and Eastern Ontario overnight.

The system will begin its exit Thursday morning, with snow tapering off in Southwestern Ontario first. However, snow will continue across Central and Eastern Ontario.

In the Niagara region and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, mixing will remain a concern into the early morning hours. However, by 4–6 AM, colder air will push in, flipping precipitation back to snow. Any previously fallen precipitation may refreeze as temperatures drop, creating hazardous road conditions.

Expect treacherous travel conditions on Thursday morning. Roads will be slushy and icy in areas that saw mixing, while heavy snow will make roads impassable further north. Widespread school bus cancellations and school closures are likely.

Eastern Ontario will hold onto light to moderate snow through the late morning. However, models indicate some potential for mixing in the Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall areas. This could result in light icing from freezing rain before a final transition back to snow.

Most of Southern Ontario will finally see an end to precipitation Thursday, aside from some lingering lake-effect snow near Lake Huron.

Based on the latest data, the highest snowfall totals will likely be in Central and Eastern Ontario. A widespread 20–40 cm is forecast across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. However, totals closer to 40 cm are most probable in Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, where there’s even a slight chance of locally exceeding 40–50 cm.

Central and Southwestern Ontario, including Grey-Bruce, Kitchener, York Region, Simcoe County, Muskoka, and Peterborough, will likely receive 20–30 cm, with some areas near Lake Simcoe potentially exceeding 30 cm.

The exception will be the Lake Ontario shoreline and the International border, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. Lower snowfall ratios and a higher risk of mixing could keep totals below 20 cm. However, if mixing remains minimal, this area could exceed forecasts.

The snowfall forecast becomes more uncertain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, where multiple factors create a ‘boom or bust’ scenario. The GTA will start with heavy snow, likely reaching 10 cm fairly easily unless there’s a drastic shift in the storm track. The big question is how much more accumulates beyond that.

Some models suggest that if mixing does not occur, parts of the GTA could see 20–30 cm by Thursday morning. However, given the likelihood of overnight mixing, we expect totals to stay below 20 cm, which is why our official forecast remains at 10–20 cm.

London and Sarnia sit on the boundary between significant snow and mixed precipitation. The most probable outcome is 15–20 cm, though an overperformance remains possible.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, snowfall amounts will be lower, with less than 10 cm expected. However, these areas will likely see prolonged freezing rain, with the heaviest ice accretion along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Models vary on how intense the freezing rain will be. Some project as much as 10 mm of ice accretion, but this seems unlikely given the presence of mixed precipitation and the relatively short duration of freezing rain. Our official forecast calls for 2–5 mm of ice accretion, though isolated pockets could see 7–10 mm if freezing rain persists longer than expected.

February 11, 2025

Major Winter Storm on Track to Dump Up to 40cm of Snow Across Most of Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Get your shovels ready, Southern Ontario! What many would consider our first true winter storm of the season is on the horizon. This moisture-laden system is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, bringing heavy snowfall across a large portion of our region.

There’s still some uncertainty in the exact track, which will determine who sees the heaviest snow, but confidence is growing that much of Southern Ontario will experience significant impacts from this storm. Travel will likely become hazardous Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and widespread school bus cancellations—and even full school closures—are almost certain on Thursday.

Based on the latest data, the heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley. Accumulations will likely range between 20 to 40 cm, with some localized pockets potentially exceeding 40 cm by the time the snow tapers off early Thursday afternoon.

The most challenging part of this forecast comes down to a narrow corridor from London through Hamilton, into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along the Lake Ontario shoreline, and into extreme Eastern Ontario along the international border. These areas are likely to start off with snow, but depending on the storm’s track, a transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain could occur during the evening and overnight.

The exact snowfall amounts in this corridor remain highly uncertain, as even a fraction of a degree difference in temperature could mean the difference between 5 cm and 30 cm of snow.

The risk of freezing rain also appears significant for areas in deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and communities along the Lake Erie shoreline, where several hours of ice accretion could result in hazardous road conditions and localized power outages.

The storm will begin impacting Southern Ontario on Wednesday afternoon, with the initial bands of snow spreading into deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham, and London. By the mid-to-late afternoon, snow will have moved into Hamilton, Niagara, and the Greater Toronto Area, just in time for the evening commute.

Steady snowfall will continue through the dinner hour, with snowfall rates gradually increasing as the system spreads further across the region. Central and Eastern Ontario will see snow begin around the dinner hour into the early evening, while the Ottawa Valley may not see the first flakes until mid-to-late evening.

Snow will continue throughout the night across much of the region, with varying intensity. Unlike some past storms, this event isn’t expected to bring extreme snowfall rates, with accumulations of around 2 to 4 cm per hour at most. However, the prolonged nature of this storm, lasting 12 to 16 hours in many areas, will allow totals to build up significantly.

Another key factor in determining final snowfall amounts will be how far north the mixing line extends into Southern Ontario. Earlier model runs suggested a more northern track, which would allow warmer air to push into areas along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, leading to a transition from snow to ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain.

However, more recent model data from Monday evening has trended slightly further south, reducing the risk of mixing for some areas. That said, some models, including the American (NAM) and European models, still show a more northern mixing line, which could bring ice and rain into parts of deep Southwestern Ontario, London, and Hamilton.

If this occurs, Windsor and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could see several hours of freezing rain, resulting in ice buildup on untreated surfaces, power lines, and roads.

On the other hand, the Canadian (RGEM) model, along with the higher-resolution American NAM 3km model, suggest a more southern storm track, which would keep most of Southern Ontario in the snow zone.

If this scenario plays out, snowfall accumulations could be much higher in places like London, Hamilton, and the Golden Horseshoe, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm and minimal mixing.

Some models also indicate the possibility of mixing slightly north of Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence River, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall, which could lower snow totals in these areas. However, the latest data suggests this region may stay entirely on the snowy side of the system.

As the storm progresses overnight, those areas that remain on the snow side will continue to see accumulation through early Thursday morning. Snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 4 cm per hour in heavier bands but will likely average closer to 1 to 2 cm per hour.

Fortunately, winds won’t be particularly strong, with gusts expected to range from 20 to 40 km/h at most. While some blowing snow is possible, full-blown blizzard conditions are not expected with this storm.

By mid-morning Thursday, high-resolution models suggest a final burst of heavier snow around the Golden Horseshoe, Lake Simcoe, and Eastern Ontario. Snowfall rates could briefly spike to 4 to 6 cm per hour as the back end of the system moves through during the morning rush hour.

Travel conditions will likely be very poor on Thursday morning, and all non-essential travel should be avoided. Widespread school bus cancellations are almost a certainty given these conditions.

A rapid improvement is expected in Southwestern Ontario by late morning, with snowfall tapering off to light flurries. However, it will take time for road crews to clear the heavy snowfall, so road conditions may remain hazardous into the early afternoon.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, snow will linger into the early afternoon before finally winding down around midday for the GTA and Central Ontario and mid-afternoon for the Ottawa Valley.

By the time the storm wraps up, a broad region across Southern Ontario, including the Lake Huron shoreline, Sarnia, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, and the Ottawa Valley, will likely see between 20 and 40 cm of fresh snow. Mixing is unlikely to be a factor in these areas, though there’s always a slight chance of a last-minute shift in the storm track.

The biggest uncertainty lies within a narrow corridor that includes London, Woodstock, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. This area will likely begin with snow on Wednesday but could see ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain mix in during the late evening and overnight hours, which would reduce total snowfall amounts.

A conservative estimate for this region is at least 10 cm of snow, though some areas, particularly along the northern edge of this zone, could see totals closer to 20 to 30 cm. The current model trends lean toward a slightly more southern storm track, but we are waiting to see if this pattern holds before making final adjustments to the snowfall forecast.

For Windsor, Chatham, and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Niagara, a mix of snow and freezing rain is expected. Some locations could experience several hours of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion of 4 to 8 mm, which may cause localized power outages. However, if the mixing line remains further south, these areas could still end up seeing significant snowfall, possibly exceeding 20 cm.

The bottom line is that while we have high confidence in a significant winter storm, the local impacts will ultimately depend on the storm’s exact track, which may not become fully clear until just before the system moves in.

A more detailed forecast with refined snowfall and freezing rain estimates will be released late Tuesday as newer model data becomes available.

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