February 14, 2025

Intense Snowstorm Could Bring Blizzard Conditions and Up to 30-60cm of Snow to Southern Ontario This Weekend

February 14, 2025/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

The snowy weather isn’t letting up as yet another winter storm takes aim at Southern Ontario over the Family Day long weekend. This system will arrive in multiple waves, beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday. By the time it moves out late Sunday, much of Southern Ontario could be buried under as much as 60 cm of snow.

Strong winds will develop throughout Sunday morning into the afternoon, with gusts reaching 50 to 80 km/h in some areas. These powerful winds, combined with heavy snowfall, will create dangerous whiteout conditions and may even reach blizzard criteria. Travel is expected to become difficult as early as Saturday morning, with conditions steadily worsening through the night and into Sunday.

The most hazardous conditions are expected Sunday morning and afternoon, as intense snowfall rates are combined with strong wind gusts, making all non-essential travel extremely dangerous. Highway closures are highly likely in the hardest-hit regions as plows struggle to keep up with rapid snowfall rates, while blowing and drifting snow significantly reduces visibility.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm's exact track, which will determine where the heaviest snowfall occurs. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and possibly parts of the Golden Horseshoe could see periods of freezing rain or ice pellets by late Sunday morning. While this would create its own hazards, any mixing would also lower overall snowfall totals.

As of now, Eastern and parts of Central Ontario appear to be in line for the highest snowfall amounts. Combined two-day snowfall totals could range from 30 to 60 cm by Sunday night, with 5-10 cm expected on Saturday and an additional 25-50 cm possible on Sunday.

**HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The storm will get underway Saturday morning as steady snow moves into Deep Southwestern Ontario from Michigan. It will spread into London and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) by late morning. Some light flurries may reach Central and Eastern Ontario, but the more persistent snowfall will remain south of Lake Simcoe.

At this stage, conditions may not seem too severe, leading to the false impression that the storm has been overhyped. However, don’t be fooled—snowfall rates will gradually increase through the afternoon, reaching 1-2 cm per hour and steadily accumulating.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By mid-afternoon Saturday, light to moderate snowfall will have spread across most of Southern Ontario. The heaviest snowfall will be concentrated over Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, while Central and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, may only see scattered flurries.

There are indications that parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario—including Windsor, Chatham, and possibly London—may see a transition to ice pellets or freezing rain. Meanwhile, Kitchener, Hamilton, and the GTA should remain primarily snow.

Heading into the evening, the storm’s moisture supply will intensify as it taps into the Gulf of Mexico, keeping snow steady across Southern Ontario. However, Central and Eastern Ontario may experience more scattered snowfall during this time. The most persistent snow bands are expected to set up along the Windsor-London-Hamilton corridor.

Some mixing could still occur near the Lake Erie shoreline, particularly in Leamington and the southern Niagara region, though it remains uncertain how far inland it may extend. If the mixing line pushes north, areas such as Windsor could also see freezing rain.

By the end of Saturday, snowfall totals are expected to range from 5 to 10 cm across much of Southern Ontario, with locally higher amounts of up to 15 cm in areas benefiting from lake enhancement like Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see lower totals, between 2 and 5 cm, as the first wave of snow stays focused farther south.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight Saturday as even more moisture-laden precipitation moves in from Michigan. Snowfall rates will increase during the pre-dawn hours, starting in the southwest around midnight before progressing east and north through the morning.

There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the extent of mixing along the Lake Erie shoreline, but there is a possibility of significant ice accretion in parts of Windsor and the Niagara region.

By late Sunday morning, the system is expected to intensify rapidly as the low-pressure center tracks south of the Great Lakes. This intensification will result in significantly higher snowfall rates, especially in the GTA, Niagara region, and Central Ontario, including Barrie, Muskoka, and Peterborough.

Snowfall rates could reach 5-10 cm per hour, making it impossible for road crews to keep up. Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see steady snow increase throughout Sunday afternoon and into the early evening.

**ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Adding to the severity of the storm, strong wind gusts of 50-80 km/h will develop through Sunday morning, with the highest gusts expected in Central and Eastern Ontario. These winds, combined with intense snowfall rates, will almost certainly lead to blizzard conditions in some areas.

Visibility will be near zero, with blowing and drifting snow making travel dangerous. All non-essential travel should be avoided on Sunday morning and afternoon, as highway closures are likely in the hardest-hit regions. With snow falling at rates of 5-10 cm per hour, it will be extremely easy to become stranded, as plows will struggle to keep roads passable.

Despite being less than 48 hours away, there is still some uncertainty in the storm's track and timing. Different forecast models continue to show varying scenarios, which could impact snowfall totals and the extent of mixing.

The short-range American model (HRRR), which provides detailed hourly forecasts, aligns closely with the Canadian and European models. These models suggest a more southern track, keeping the GTA and much of Southern Ontario primarily in the snow zone.

However, another American model (NAM) suggests a more northern track with a later arrival. If this scenario plays out, the mixing line would shift farther north, bringing ice pellets or freezing rain from London to Hamilton and into the GTA. This would reduce snowfall totals in these areas but create hazardous icy conditions.

This model also suggests the mixing could extend along the Lake Ontario shoreline into parts of Southeastern Ontario, including Belleville, Kingston, and Brockville. While this scenario is less likely, it’s still worth monitoring.

Additionally, the NAM model points to a significant icing event for Hamilton and the Niagara region, with potential ice accretion of 10-15 mm. If this happens, localized power outages and tree damage could occur.

The model also suggests that while some forecasts indicate the heaviest snow will arrive early Sunday, this scenario shifts the worst conditions to the afternoon in Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, extending into the evening for Eastern Ontario.

Regardless of the final track, conditions should improve as snow tapers off from west to east late Sunday evening, with lingering snow in Eastern Ontario into early Monday morning. However, lake-effect snow could quickly develop around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as the system exits.

By the time this storm is over, a wide swath of Eastern and Central Ontario could see 30-60 cm of fresh snow, including the accumulation from both Saturday and Sunday.

For Southwestern Ontario and the GTA—including Sarnia, London, Kitchener, Hamilton, and Toronto—snowfall totals will likely range from 20-40 cm. However, if mixing occurs on Sunday, snowfall amounts could drop to 15-30 cm or even lower, depending on how extensive the ice pellets or freezing rain become.

The lowest snowfall totals will likely be in Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Erie shoreline, where freezing rain and ice pellets will reduce overall accumulation. Areas such as Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, St. Thomas, and Niagara Falls could see between 15-30 cm of snow, depending on how much mixing occurs.

We are closely monitoring the latest forecast data and will provide a more detailed breakdown of Sunday’s snowfall totals in an updated forecast on Saturday. Stay tuned for further updates.

February 11, 2025

High Impact Winter Storm on the Way for Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday With Up to 40cm of Snow & Freezing Rain

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Confidence is growing that Southern Ontario is on track for what could be the most widespread and significant winter storm of the season so far. That said, there hasn’t been much competition in that regard, as most of this winter’s snowfall has come from localized snow squalls. However, a shift in the weather pattern has placed the region in an active storm track, and Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time delivering a disruptive winter storm right in the middle of the week.

Earlier, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the system, which would have influenced snowfall amounts in different areas. However, in the past 24 hours, forecast models have begun to align on a more consistent storm track. Interestingly, the latest data supports what we initially projected, meaning there hasn’t been a major shift in the forecast.

Widespread snowfall accumulations of 20 to 40 cm are expected from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley between Wednesday and Thursday. In the Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario, precipitation will likely begin as snow, but there is potential for ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain to mix in. This could limit snowfall totals, especially along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, where temperatures may hover near the freezing mark.

For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the extent of mixing remains a key uncertainty. It could go either way. Right now, we’re forecasting 10 to 20 cm of snow, but if the mixing line stays south, snowfall amounts could surpass expectations, reaching 25 to 30 cm.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and extending into the Niagara region, models suggest several hours of freezing rain Wednesday evening and overnight. Some localized areas could see ice accretion of 2 to 5 mm, leading to slippery, untreated surfaces and hazardous road conditions.

The storm is expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon, with scattered precipitation moving into Southwestern Ontario between 2 and 4 PM. While most areas will initially see snow, some models are aggressive in bringing freezing rain into Windsor and Chatham by late afternoon.

Before the main storm arrives, lake-effect snow may develop off Lake Ontario, affecting the Burlington and Hamilton corridor Wednesday morning into early afternoon. System snow should reach the GTA just before the evening rush hour, making for a difficult commute.

The latest model data has also increased wind projections, with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall, this could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Non-essential travel should be avoided starting in the late afternoon, with conditions deteriorating further into the evening.

By mid to late evening, snow will have spread across most of Southern Ontario, including Central and Eastern Ontario. A key feature to monitor will be the movement of the mixing line.

Current data shows a freezing rain corridor stretching from Leamington through Chatham and along the Lake Erie shoreline, with a narrow band of ice pellets from Windsor through just south of London and into Hamilton.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Sarnia, London, Kitchener, and the GTA. Snowfall rates will intensify after 9–10 PM, increasing from 1–2 cm per hour to 2–4 cm per hour. This will make it challenging for snowplows to keep up.

After midnight, the mixing line may push north into parts of the GTA, bringing ice pellets and freezing rain to locations such as London, Burlington, Mississauga, and Toronto for several hours. However, this transition looks to be confined near the Lake Ontario shoreline, meaning snowfall will likely dominate farther inland.

Freezing rain will continue across Windsor and along the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara region, while heavy snow steadily blankets Central and Eastern Ontario overnight.

The system will begin its exit Thursday morning, with snow tapering off in Southwestern Ontario first. However, snow will continue across Central and Eastern Ontario.

In the Niagara region and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, mixing will remain a concern into the early morning hours. However, by 4–6 AM, colder air will push in, flipping precipitation back to snow. Any previously fallen precipitation may refreeze as temperatures drop, creating hazardous road conditions.

Expect treacherous travel conditions on Thursday morning. Roads will be slushy and icy in areas that saw mixing, while heavy snow will make roads impassable further north. Widespread school bus cancellations and school closures are likely.

Eastern Ontario will hold onto light to moderate snow through the late morning. However, models indicate some potential for mixing in the Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall areas. This could result in light icing from freezing rain before a final transition back to snow.

Most of Southern Ontario will finally see an end to precipitation Thursday, aside from some lingering lake-effect snow near Lake Huron.

Based on the latest data, the highest snowfall totals will likely be in Central and Eastern Ontario. A widespread 20–40 cm is forecast across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. However, totals closer to 40 cm are most probable in Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, where there’s even a slight chance of locally exceeding 40–50 cm.

Central and Southwestern Ontario, including Grey-Bruce, Kitchener, York Region, Simcoe County, Muskoka, and Peterborough, will likely receive 20–30 cm, with some areas near Lake Simcoe potentially exceeding 30 cm.

The exception will be the Lake Ontario shoreline and the International border, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. Lower snowfall ratios and a higher risk of mixing could keep totals below 20 cm. However, if mixing remains minimal, this area could exceed forecasts.

The snowfall forecast becomes more uncertain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, where multiple factors create a ‘boom or bust’ scenario. The GTA will start with heavy snow, likely reaching 10 cm fairly easily unless there’s a drastic shift in the storm track. The big question is how much more accumulates beyond that.

Some models suggest that if mixing does not occur, parts of the GTA could see 20–30 cm by Thursday morning. However, given the likelihood of overnight mixing, we expect totals to stay below 20 cm, which is why our official forecast remains at 10–20 cm.

London and Sarnia sit on the boundary between significant snow and mixed precipitation. The most probable outcome is 15–20 cm, though an overperformance remains possible.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, snowfall amounts will be lower, with less than 10 cm expected. However, these areas will likely see prolonged freezing rain, with the heaviest ice accretion along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Models vary on how intense the freezing rain will be. Some project as much as 10 mm of ice accretion, but this seems unlikely given the presence of mixed precipitation and the relatively short duration of freezing rain. Our official forecast calls for 2–5 mm of ice accretion, though isolated pockets could see 7–10 mm if freezing rain persists longer than expected.

February 11, 2025

Major Winter Storm on Track to Dump Up to 40cm of Snow Across Most of Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Get your shovels ready, Southern Ontario! What many would consider our first true winter storm of the season is on the horizon. This moisture-laden system is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, bringing heavy snowfall across a large portion of our region.

There’s still some uncertainty in the exact track, which will determine who sees the heaviest snow, but confidence is growing that much of Southern Ontario will experience significant impacts from this storm. Travel will likely become hazardous Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and widespread school bus cancellations—and even full school closures—are almost certain on Thursday.

Based on the latest data, the heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley. Accumulations will likely range between 20 to 40 cm, with some localized pockets potentially exceeding 40 cm by the time the snow tapers off early Thursday afternoon.

The most challenging part of this forecast comes down to a narrow corridor from London through Hamilton, into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along the Lake Ontario shoreline, and into extreme Eastern Ontario along the international border. These areas are likely to start off with snow, but depending on the storm’s track, a transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain could occur during the evening and overnight.

The exact snowfall amounts in this corridor remain highly uncertain, as even a fraction of a degree difference in temperature could mean the difference between 5 cm and 30 cm of snow.

The risk of freezing rain also appears significant for areas in deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and communities along the Lake Erie shoreline, where several hours of ice accretion could result in hazardous road conditions and localized power outages.

The storm will begin impacting Southern Ontario on Wednesday afternoon, with the initial bands of snow spreading into deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham, and London. By the mid-to-late afternoon, snow will have moved into Hamilton, Niagara, and the Greater Toronto Area, just in time for the evening commute.

Steady snowfall will continue through the dinner hour, with snowfall rates gradually increasing as the system spreads further across the region. Central and Eastern Ontario will see snow begin around the dinner hour into the early evening, while the Ottawa Valley may not see the first flakes until mid-to-late evening.

Snow will continue throughout the night across much of the region, with varying intensity. Unlike some past storms, this event isn’t expected to bring extreme snowfall rates, with accumulations of around 2 to 4 cm per hour at most. However, the prolonged nature of this storm, lasting 12 to 16 hours in many areas, will allow totals to build up significantly.

Another key factor in determining final snowfall amounts will be how far north the mixing line extends into Southern Ontario. Earlier model runs suggested a more northern track, which would allow warmer air to push into areas along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, leading to a transition from snow to ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain.

However, more recent model data from Monday evening has trended slightly further south, reducing the risk of mixing for some areas. That said, some models, including the American (NAM) and European models, still show a more northern mixing line, which could bring ice and rain into parts of deep Southwestern Ontario, London, and Hamilton.

If this occurs, Windsor and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could see several hours of freezing rain, resulting in ice buildup on untreated surfaces, power lines, and roads.

On the other hand, the Canadian (RGEM) model, along with the higher-resolution American NAM 3km model, suggest a more southern storm track, which would keep most of Southern Ontario in the snow zone.

If this scenario plays out, snowfall accumulations could be much higher in places like London, Hamilton, and the Golden Horseshoe, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm and minimal mixing.

Some models also indicate the possibility of mixing slightly north of Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence River, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall, which could lower snow totals in these areas. However, the latest data suggests this region may stay entirely on the snowy side of the system.

As the storm progresses overnight, those areas that remain on the snow side will continue to see accumulation through early Thursday morning. Snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 4 cm per hour in heavier bands but will likely average closer to 1 to 2 cm per hour.

Fortunately, winds won’t be particularly strong, with gusts expected to range from 20 to 40 km/h at most. While some blowing snow is possible, full-blown blizzard conditions are not expected with this storm.

By mid-morning Thursday, high-resolution models suggest a final burst of heavier snow around the Golden Horseshoe, Lake Simcoe, and Eastern Ontario. Snowfall rates could briefly spike to 4 to 6 cm per hour as the back end of the system moves through during the morning rush hour.

Travel conditions will likely be very poor on Thursday morning, and all non-essential travel should be avoided. Widespread school bus cancellations are almost a certainty given these conditions.

A rapid improvement is expected in Southwestern Ontario by late morning, with snowfall tapering off to light flurries. However, it will take time for road crews to clear the heavy snowfall, so road conditions may remain hazardous into the early afternoon.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, snow will linger into the early afternoon before finally winding down around midday for the GTA and Central Ontario and mid-afternoon for the Ottawa Valley.

By the time the storm wraps up, a broad region across Southern Ontario, including the Lake Huron shoreline, Sarnia, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, and the Ottawa Valley, will likely see between 20 and 40 cm of fresh snow. Mixing is unlikely to be a factor in these areas, though there’s always a slight chance of a last-minute shift in the storm track.

The biggest uncertainty lies within a narrow corridor that includes London, Woodstock, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. This area will likely begin with snow on Wednesday but could see ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain mix in during the late evening and overnight hours, which would reduce total snowfall amounts.

A conservative estimate for this region is at least 10 cm of snow, though some areas, particularly along the northern edge of this zone, could see totals closer to 20 to 30 cm. The current model trends lean toward a slightly more southern storm track, but we are waiting to see if this pattern holds before making final adjustments to the snowfall forecast.

For Windsor, Chatham, and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Niagara, a mix of snow and freezing rain is expected. Some locations could experience several hours of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion of 4 to 8 mm, which may cause localized power outages. However, if the mixing line remains further south, these areas could still end up seeing significant snowfall, possibly exceeding 20 cm.

The bottom line is that while we have high confidence in a significant winter storm, the local impacts will ultimately depend on the storm’s exact track, which may not become fully clear until just before the system moves in.

A more detailed forecast with refined snowfall and freezing rain estimates will be released late Tuesday as newer model data becomes available.

February 04, 2025

Wintry Mix of Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain Threatens Thursday Morning Commute Across Southern Ontario

February 04, 2025/ Brennen Perry

A shift in the weather pattern across Southern Ontario over the past few days has brought a noticeable retreat from the extreme cold, with temperatures returning to near-seasonal values. However, this shift has also placed the region on a more active storm track, a pattern we first experienced with Monday’s messy system.

The next round of unsettled weather was initially showing signs of a prolonged freezing rain event on Thursday. However, recent model trends indicate a significantly weaker system than previously expected. While this storm will still impact Southern Ontario, the main threat now appears to be light freezing rain and snow, particularly during the Thursday morning commute.

Although snowfall totals won’t be overly impressive, Central and Eastern Ontario could see an average accumulation of 4 to 8 cm by the end of the day. The primary concern will be the mix of precipitation types, which could create slushy and icy road conditions, making for a slick and potentially hazardous commute.

Looking ahead to the weekend, we are closely watching a moisture-laden system that could bring Southern Ontario its first true widespread snowstorm of the season. This storm has the potential to impact even those regions that have largely avoided significant snowfall so far, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Current projections suggest snowfall totals could range from 10 to 25 cm, though these estimates will likely be refined as we get closer to the event.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER LAST 6 HOURS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Thursday’s system is expected to begin during the morning hours as light precipitation moves in from the southwest. High-resolution models, such as the American model shown above, suggest that the precipitation will be quite scattered with dry pockets throughout. However, if the precipitation takes the form of light flurries or drizzle, some models may be underestimating its extent.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, precipitation will likely fall as snow. Across the Golden Horseshoe, it may also start as snow during the mid-morning hours before transitioning. Meanwhile, areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and Deep Southwestern Ontario will be more prone to freezing rain and ice pellets from the onset.

Travel conditions could become challenging, particularly in the morning as freezing rain coincides with rush hour across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

At this point, it’s uncertain whether this system will be strong enough to prompt widespread school bus cancellations. However, the highest risk for disruptions will be in Windsor, Chatham, and London, where precipitation is expected to begin earlier in the morning with a higher likelihood of freezing rain.

By early afternoon, precipitation should become more widespread, particularly in Central and Eastern Ontario, as drier areas fill in with moisture. Despite this, snowfall rates are expected to remain manageable, likely staying under 1 cm per hour. However, snow could persist for a solid 6 to 8 hours through the late morning and afternoon, leading to gradual accumulation.

Meanwhile, the freezing rain threat will begin expanding toward Hamilton and the western GTA, with ice pellets potentially mixing in as the transition from snow to freezing rain occurs.

Gradually, precipitation will taper off in Deep Southwestern Ontario, with lingering drizzle as temperatures slowly rise above freezing. This slight warm-up will help melt any ice accretion from earlier in the day.

Across the rest of Southern Ontario, precipitation should wind down by late afternoon or early evening. In the wake of the system, some minor lake-effect snow may develop around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, but we are not expecting any organized lake-effect activity at this time.

While Thursday’s system may be relatively minor, it could serve as a precursor to a much more impactful storm set to arrive this weekend.

Uncertainties remain, and details could shift as we get closer to Saturday. However, all major weather models continue to signal a strong system targeting Southern Ontario late Saturday into Sunday.

The exact track and intensity will determine which areas see the most significant impacts. At this point, current projections suggest a prolonged freezing rain threat for Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. Meanwhile, heavy snow, with potential accumulations between 10 and 25 cm, could affect parts of the Golden Horseshoe, Central Ontario, and Eastern Ontario.

Again, this forecast is subject to change, but this storm has the potential to be a high-impact event for much of Southern Ontario. Stay tuned, as we’ll be providing more detailed updates in the coming days!

January 26, 2025

Damaging Wind Storm Sweeps Into Ontario With Gusts Over 90 km/h and Blizzard Conditions on Monday

January 26, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The final week of January is shaping up to start with turbulent weather across Southern Ontario, as a damaging windstorm is set to impact the region on Monday.

Wind gusts are forecasted to reach 80 to 90 km/h across much of Southern Ontario during the day on Monday, with some localized pockets potentially seeing gusts exceeding 100 km/h.

Power outages are a significant concern for the hardest-hit regions, along with other types of wind-related damage, such as fallen tree branches and unsecured objects being blown around. In addition, the strong winds may create another hazard along the Great Lakes shoreline, where ice could be pushed ashore, causing damage to property along the lakes.

Adding to the danger, a sharp cold front is expected to sweep through Ontario over the next 24 hours, bringing a blast of wintry weather, including an intense frontal snow squall. Combined with the strong winds, some areas could experience blizzard-like conditions starting late Monday afternoon and lasting into the evening.

While this event isn’t expected to bring significant snowfall totals to Southern Ontario, accumulations could range from 5 to 15 cm, depending on the location.

However, areas east of Lake Superior in Northern Ontario may see higher amounts, with localized totals reaching 20 to 30 cm, while a broader area of Northeastern Ontario is expected to receive 10 to 20 cm.

The windstorm is expected to begin early Monday morning across Southern Ontario, with wind speeds gradually increasing through mid-morning.

Southwestern Ontario, particularly areas along the Lake Huron shoreline, will experience the strongest winds first, around sunrise. These conditions will then spread east and north by early afternoon.

The strongest winds are anticipated during the early to mid-afternoon hours, with widespread gusts ranging from 70 to 90 km/h across the region.

Areas such as the Dundalk Highlands, Niagara region, Northern Lake Erie shoreline, and Prince Edward County could see slightly higher wind gusts due to their exposure to the lakes and elevated terrain. Gusts in these areas may exceed 100 km/h, possibly reaching 105 to 110 km/h near Collingwood along the Georgian Bay shoreline.

Other locations, including Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Guelph, Kitchener, Hamilton, Brantford, Britt, Parry Sound, Belleville, Kingston, and Brockville, could experience wind gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. This range represents the greatest potential for wind damage, including localized power outages.

The remainder of Southern Ontario—excluding Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley—can expect gusts between 80 and 90 km/h, with occasional stronger gusts. Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley are likely to see slightly weaker winds, with maximum gusts of 70 to 80 km/h.

For those with properties along the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Erie, the risk of ‘ice shoves’—where winds push broken ice onto shore—is a concern. This phenomenon can cause significant damage and flooding along the shoreline. Residents in affected areas should prepare for this potential over the next 24 hours.

Wind speeds are expected to diminish somewhat later in the afternoon and into Monday evening, though they will remain strong, ranging from 60 to 90 km/h. This coincides with the arrival of a pocket of moderate to heavy snow in Central Ontario during the late afternoon.

The snowfall is expected to begin affecting the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions between 2:00 and 4:00 PM, leading to blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions lasting several hours into the evening.

Travel during this time will likely be hazardous, with significantly reduced visibility and potentially closed roads. While snowfall rates won’t be overwhelming, at a few centimetres per hour, the strong winds will make conditions dangerous.

Travel should be avoided unless absolutely necessary. Fortunately, conditions are expected to improve within a few hours.

By dinnertime, widespread snowfall is likely across most of Central Ontario, portions of Eastern Ontario, and areas east of the Lake Huron shoreline.

The worst conditions are expected early in the event, as the snow begins and winds are strongest, with gradual improvement into the later evening hours.

The greatest risk of blizzard conditions will be across Grey-Bruce, the Georgian Bay shoreline, Muskoka, and Parry Sound, where the heaviest snow and strongest winds are forecasted to overlap.

An intense, narrow band of snow is also expected to develop along the cold front as it moves through Southern Ontario in the evening.

This frontal snow squall could bring a sudden burst of heavy snow almost everywhere in Southern Ontario, lasting less than an hour.

The squall is expected to reach Central and Eastern Ontario by mid to late evening, while the Greater Toronto Area and Niagara region may not experience it until closer to midnight.

This squall is not expected to produce significant snowfall totals, as it will pass through quickly. However, it could bring 2 to 5 cm of snow within 15 to 30 minutes, along with brief but intense blowing snow.

Although conditions may feel like a blizzard during this time, they likely won’t meet the official criteria, which require blizzard conditions to last at least four hours. That criteria is more likely to be met around the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline as the snow starts earlier in the day.

By the end of Monday, the highest snowfall totals are expected in the higher elevations of Central Ontario, including Huntsville, Sundridge, Algonquin Park, and North Bay, where accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are likely, though closer to the lower end of that range.

For the rest of Central Ontario and areas east of Lake Huron, including Hanover, Orangeville, and Collingwood, this event is expected to bring 5 to 10 cm of fresh snowfall.

Eastern Ontario and the Lake Huron shoreline should see 2 to 5 cm, primarily from the passing snow squall.

The Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario are likely to receive less than 2 cm of snow.

In Northern Ontario, snow will begin late Sunday night and continue through much of Monday.

The heaviest accumulations will occur east of Lake Superior, where lake enhancement and embedded snow squalls could push totals to 20 to 30 cm in areas like Wawa and Sault Ste. Marie.

Blizzard conditions are possible during the morning and afternoon in these regions, with wind gusts reaching 70 to 90 km/h near the shoreline.

The rest of Northeastern Ontario, stretching from North Bay to Cochrane along the Quebec border, is expected to receive 10 to 20 cm of snow by the end of Monday.

Sudbury, which may find itself in a dry pocket, is forecasted to see 5 to 10 cm, closer to the lower end of that range, while Elliot Lake should receive less than 5 cm.

December 03, 2024

Alberta Clipper to Bring a Snowy Blast to Southern Ontario on Wednesday With Up to 20cm Possible; Snowbelt Region Could See Up to 50cm

December 03, 2024/ Brennen Perry

The snowy landscape across Southern Ontario is quickly transforming as a multi-day snow squall event has blanketed parts of the snowbelt regions with over 100 cm of snow.

While the intense accumulation has primarily impacted areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, the rest of Southern Ontario will soon have their turn as a weather system moves into the region on Wednesday.

This system-related snowfall will likely combine with lake enhancement and embedded snow squalls, resulting in higher accumulations in the snowbelt areas that are still digging out from the weekend’s relentless snowfall.

By Thursday morning, some snowbelt regions could see an additional 30-50 cm of snow. Meanwhile, a general 5-15 cm of snow is expected across much of Southern Ontario, including parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), which has experienced minimal snowfall so far this season.

The Alberta clipper responsible for this system began pushing into Northwestern Ontario from Manitoba on Tuesday afternoon. Moderate to heavy snow will continue spreading across Northern Ontario through the evening and overnight.

In Northern Ontario, we expected the highest snowfall totals to be found east of Lake Superior stretching from Wawa down to Sault Ste. Marie. Snowfall totals of between 30 to 50cm are possible thanks to the system-related snowfall and snow squalls off Lake Superior.

Other areas around the Georgian Bay shoreline extending into Sudbury could be looking at around 20cm of snowfall accumulation. This will also be the case south of Lake Nipigon which could see some lake enhancement between Thunder Bay and Geardton.

The rest of Northeastern Ontario is looking at around 10 to 15cm with locally up to 20cm. Less than 10cm is expected for Northwestern Ontario including Thunder Bay.

Ahead of the system, lake effect snow has already started to intensify, beginning with Lake Superior on Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening, snow squalls are expected to organize off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, primarily targeting the Bruce Peninsula and areas northeast of Georgian Bay, such as Parry Sound, Britt, and North Bay. These snow squalls are likely to persist through the night into Wednesday morning.

Additional lake effect snow could develop off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the early morning hours of Wednesday, potentially drifting into the southern Niagara region and Prince Edward County. While this activity may cause reduced visibility and locally heavy snowfall, the squalls are not expected to remain stationary for long, limiting overall accumulation.

As the system reaches Southern Ontario around sunrise on Wednesday, the existing lake effect snow bands are expected to merge with the system’s light to moderate snowfall. This merging could enhance snow totals, particularly off the northern shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Narrow bands of heavy snow could stretch across the Niagara region and into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, leading to significant variations in snowfall accumulations.

Snow totals will likely vary substantially due to localized banding caused by lake enhancement. Some areas may see only 5 cm, while nearby locations could receive 15-20 cm, depending on where the snow bands develop.

Another key factor with this system will be strong wind gusts, ranging from 50-70 km/h across Southern Ontario, beginning Wednesday morning and continuing throughout the day. These winds, combined with steady snowfall, could create blowing snow and reduced visibility, making travel hazardous. With this being the first significant snowfall event of the season outside the snowbelt, drivers are urged to exercise caution.

While the system is expected to exit Southern Ontario by late Wednesday, snow squall activity will persist off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. An intense squall is projected to develop off Georgian Bay late Wednesday evening, stretching inland toward Midland, Orillia, and Gravenhurst, and continuing into the early hours of Thursday.

By Thursday morning, shifting winds will push the Georgian Bay squall southward toward Collingwood and Angus. This squall may extend far inland at times, impacting the Highway 400 corridor between Vaughan and Barrie, as well as parts of the northern GTA. Meanwhile, a Lake Huron squall is anticipated to stretch from Goderich through Grand Bend and into the London area.

Significant snowfall could occur on Thursday if these squalls remain stationary for an extended period. Current models suggest they may not weaken until late Thursday night or early Friday morning, potentially producing intense snowfall rates for over 24 hours.

Regarding snowfall totals, the uneven distribution caused by lake enhancement means localized accumulations will vary widely. The highest confidence lies in regions northeast of Georgian Bay, including Parry Sound, Sundridge, Britt, and North Bay, where 30-50 cm of snow is expected, with localized amounts possibly exceeding those totals due to snow squalls.

Surrounding areas, such as Muskoka and Orillia, could see 20-30 cm of snow by Thursday morning, accounting for system snow, lake enhancement, and snow squall activity. Similarly, areas east of Lake Huron could see totals ranging from 20-30 cm.

In Central and Eastern Ontario, widespread snowfall is likely to range from 10-15 cm, except for the Ottawa Valley, where accumulations may be closer to 5 cm. Lake enhancement could push some areas along the northern shorelines of Lake Ontario and Prince Edward County closer to 20 cm.

For regions such as Kitchener, Woodstock, Guelph, and Barrie, snowfall totals are projected to reach 10-15 cm. However, variability due to lake enhancement may result in some areas seeing lower amounts. The GTA is expected to receive closer to 5 cm, while the Niagara region could accumulate 5-10 cm, with localized heavier bands of snow influenced by Lake Erie.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, snowfall amounts will decrease westward, with London forecasted to receive around 10 cm. Further southwest, including Sarnia, Windsor, and Chatham, totals are expected to remain under 5 cm.

It’s important to note that these totals do not account for the snow squalls expected to impact areas southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay beginning Thursday morning. High-resolution models are still refining the locations of these squalls, but additional accumulations of 30-50 cm are possible in affected areas. Stay tuned for a detailed update in a separate forecast.

November 18, 2024

‘Blizzard Conditions Possible’; Winter Storm Could Dump Up to 30cm of Snow on Parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Early This Week

November 18, 2024/ Brennen Perry

Mother Nature isn’t holding back as a powerful winter storm sets its sights on Saskatchewan and Manitoba, starting late Monday. This storm will bring heavy snow, strong winds, and even blizzard conditions, marking the region’s first significant taste of winter. Some areas in Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba could see up to 30 cm of snow, with localized amounts possibly exceeding that by the end of Wednesday.

Sustained winds of 40 km/h, with gusts reaching 70–80 km/h, are expected to create blowing snow, particularly overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Blizzard conditions could develop in some areas. Prepare for hazardous travel, as highway closures are likely in the hardest-hit regions.

Before diving into the details, it’s important to note that this is a complex storm, with snowfall accumulating over multiple days. This preliminary forecast provides a general idea of the storm’s potential impacts, but adjustments are likely as the system approaches. Stay tuned for updates, including a more detailed snowfall accumulation map in the coming days.

The storm will begin in Saskatchewan late Monday afternoon or evening, as precipitation moves into the province from the south. The first round of snowfall will primarily impact Central and Northeastern Saskatchewan, with areas like Prince Albert and Nipawin expected to see the heaviest snow through late Monday.

Overnight Monday into early Tuesday, precipitation in Saskatchewan will merge with an approaching system from the south, targeting Manitoba. The exact track of this system remains uncertain, but it’s expected to bring significant precipitation to Manitoba throughout Tuesday.

Initially, much of Eastern Manitoba, including Winnipeg, will see heavy rain. By Tuesday late morning or early afternoon, colder air will begin to wrap into the region, creating a risk of freezing rain in parts of Southwestern Manitoba, including Brandon and Portage la Prairie.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Eastern Saskatchewan, where Arctic air is firmly in place. There is some uncertainty about how far west the precipitation will extend into Saskatchewan, but the heaviest snow is expected closer to the Manitoba border.

By Tuesday late afternoon, most of Manitoba will transition from rain to snow as colder air overtakes above-freezing temperatures. Heavy snow will continue through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.

**SUSTAINED WIND SPEED** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Strong winds, with sustained speeds near 40 km/h and gusts of up to 70 km/h, will develop late Tuesday and persist into much of Wednesday. Combined with heavy snowfall, this will likely lead to blowing snow and blizzard-like conditions, particularly in parts of Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba.

As the system exits the region later on Wednesday, the snowfall will gradually taper off. However, this storm will usher in the coldest air of the season so far, with temperatures dropping to -10°C to -20°C by the end of the week.

Snowfall Accumulation

Monday

By the end of Monday, snowfall totals are expected to reach 5–10 cm in parts of Central and Eastern Saskatchewan, including Prince Albert, Melfort, and Tisdale. Surrounding areas, such as Saskatoon and Wynyard, could see up to 5 cm of snow.

Tuesday and Wednesday

From Tuesday through Wednesday, snowfall totals are expected to range between 15 and 30 cm across much of the affected region. The heaviest accumulations are anticipated near the Saskatchewan–Manitoba border, where localized totals could exceed 30 cm. Elevation will play a significant role, especially in Western Manitoba, where areas of higher terrain could see as much as 30–40 cm.

In Central and Eastern Manitoba, snowfall amounts are harder to pinpoint, as the transition from rain to snow will dictate final totals. Portage la Prairie could see 15–25 cm, while Winnipeg may only receive 10–15 cm, depending on how long the rain lingers before changing to snow.

A similar uncertainty exists in Saskatchewan, but for a different reason—how far west the moisture will penetrate into the province. Some forecasts keep the heaviest precipitation closer to the Manitoba border, while others push it further west. Regina sits on the edge of the higher accumulation zone, with current estimates suggesting 5–15 cm for the city and surrounding areas.

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