Second Day of Snowfall Expected to Bring Widespread 10-20cm of Snow Across the Prairies on Saturday

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The first day of our multi-day snow event brought light to moderate snow to all three Prairies provinces by Friday evening. Snowfall totals for the entire event are still expected to top 30cm across a significant portion of the region, with Saturday’s snowfall bringing over 10cm of accumulation to many.

Before discussing what is expected on Saturday, we first need to determine the positioning of the system at approximately midnight. As seen in the model image below for that point in time, snow will still be falling across most of Northern Alberta and along the Rockies. It will also continue to extend southeastward across Saskatchewan and into Southwestern Manitoba.

Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 11Pm MT Friday/12AM CT Saturday

Alberta

The snow will continue across Northern Alberta and the Rockies through the early morning hours of Saturday as the entire system continues to travel eastward. There’s expected to be a break in the snowfall for a few hours from Grande Prairie to Cold Lake through the early morning, but that will be followed by a secondary wave of heavier snowfall trailing closely behind.

This additional area of snow will stretch southward into Central Alberta, bringing more snow to Edmonton and possibly even some light flurries across Southern Alberta throughout the day. The snow will cross this part of the province during the morning and afternoon and by the evening, the band of snow will be almost entirely in Saskatchewan. Snowfall totals for Central and Southern Alberta won’t be too high, with most receiving less than 5cm by the end of the day and the last of the snow they can expected from this event.

Later in the morning, we’ll start to see the snow tapering off in parts of Northern Alberta from west to east, bringing accumulation for this area to 5-10cm. The snow will continue to fall further north; in areas like Peace River, High Level, and Fort McMurray; straight into the overnight hours, bringing snowfall accumulations here up to 30cm by the end of the day.

As the snow clears behind the second wave of snow, Arctic air will flood southward and the temperatures will start to fall into the -20°s,

Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 5Am MT/6AM CT Saturday

Saskatchewan

The snow will gradually end in Southern Saskatchewan, from west to east, throughout the early morning hours as the system continues to travel eastward. The same can be said further north in the province, but beginning a couple hours later, closer to sunrise, due to the northwest to southeast orientation of the large band of snow.

The second wave of snow from Alberta will cross into Saskatchewan several hours later, in the mid-morning, which will add to the earlier snowfall across much of the province. Southwest Saskatchewan can expect little to no snow from this, but isolated flurries can’t be completely ruled out. Snowfall is, however, anticipated in the southeast corner of the province as it appears this secondary line will see some southward development as it crosses the province.

By the end of the day, a majority of Saskatchewan will have received at least 5cm of snow, with a significant portion over 10cm. Snow will still be falling across most of the province overnight and into Sunday morning, which will add to the total amount received from the event and will be covered in the next forecast.

Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 11Am MT/12M CT Saturday

Manitoba

The snowfall isolated to Southwestern Manitoba late Friday will spread eastward across the southern portions of the province through Saturday morning. Snow will also gradually begin to fall moving northward along the Saskatchewan border as the main band of snow continues along the same eastward trajectory.

This snow may be heavy at times, leading to quick accumulation. The lightest snow will be along the southern edge, which can expect less than 5cm total by the end of the day.

In the late morning, areas in the southwest will see the snow start to taper off as the initial band of snow exits the region. There will be several hours of calm before the second wave moves in during the evening. This wave will only make it about halfway across the province before midnight, so only a small area can expect over 10cm of snow total for Saturday.

Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 11Pm MT Saturday/12AM CT Sunday

Sunday

On Sunday, the entire system starts to exit the Prairies followed by temperatures in the -20°s and -30°s across the entire region. There will still be some decent snowfall across the region throughout the day, which we will cover in the forecast that will be posted Saturday evening.

Active Winter Weather Returns to the Prairies With Widespread Snowfall Exceeding 30cm Beginning Friday

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The month of January has been fairly quiet across the Prairies, with periods of frigid Arctic air and some occasional snowfall as well as much more mild temperatures in the past week. Now, to end the month, we’re bracing for the return of the Arctic air and the most impactful storm since November. This incoming system will bring over 30cm of snowfall to a large swath across all three Prairie provinces by late Monday.

Considering how long the snow is expected to fall across the region, we’ll be breaking the forecast down into daily segments.

Friday

The snow will make its way into Alberta in the Northern Rockies ahead of a warm front early Friday morning, a couple of hours after midnight, as a low-pressure system pushes eastward from British Columbia. Meanwhile, snow will also develop along the front further south, to the east of Calgary.

These two areas of snowfall will merge together after a few hours, before sunrise, as the front surges northeastward. At the same time, snow will continue to develop along the length of the front and start making its way into Southwest Saskatchewan.

Model Image showing the Location and Intensity of the Snowfall at 7pm MT/8PM CT

As the low-pressure center makes its way across Alberta Friday morning and afternoon, the large area of snowfall will expand further northward in Alberta and eastward across Saskatchewan. In the evening, the leading edge of the snow will start to cross into Southwestern Manitoba and the entire line of snow will continue to travel eastward as we move into the overnight hours.

The snow is expected to remain steady over an area that covers Grande Prairie and east to Lac La Biche from the late morning straight through to the end of the day, which will lead to this area receiving the greatest accumulation of 10-20cm for Friday. The snow along the length of the front is anticipated to remain fairly moderate, but it may end up being patchy, resulting in some areas seeing breaks in the snowfall. Despite this, a widespread 5-10cm is expected to fall across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Saturday

The cold air will wrap around the backside of this storm and that will become noticeable starting in Alberta Saturday morning. The snow will continue in parts of all three Prairie provinces throughout the day Saturday and we’ll have more details of how much to expect in the forecast we will post tomorrow.

Thursday's Snowfall in Alberta Just a Precursor to a Larger Storm That Will Close Out January and Start February

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Enjoy the mild temperatures will they last, with the return of more winter-like conditions in Central and Southern Alberta expected to finish the month of January. Things will kick off with a band of snow crossing parts of Northern and Central Alberta on Thursday, followed by a much larger system that will impact a greater portion of Alberta and moving through the Prairies beginning Friday morning.

Light, patchy snow will begin later Wednedsay evening in the Grande Cache area and will slowly spread eastward towards Edmonton overnight and through Thursday morning and early afternoon. The snow will start to dissipate in the late afternoon from east to west, and likely spread a bit southward closer to the Rockies, before completely tapering off around midnight. This pattern will result in widespread 5-10cm, but greater snowfall accumulations, above 10cm, are expected in areas like Edson and Whitecourt and less than 5cm towards the Saskatchewan border.

To the north, in the Peace River region, an additional area of snow will develop in the pre-dawn hours Thursday and settle over the area until the mid-afternoon, leading to up to 10cm of accumulation before tapering off as well.

This brief snowfall event can be considered an appetizer to the main event that is set to begin early Friday morning and continue in Alberta until late Sunday or early Monday. A detailed forecast will be issued Thursday afternoon.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Wednesday, January 29, 2025

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Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are widespread bus cancellations and some school closures. Visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts

• BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are widespread bus cancellations and school closures. Visit this link for more details: https://mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx

• Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St Andrew, St Peter, St Benedict, RF Hall and buses in STOPR Zone 3 are cancelled

• Durham Public & Durham Catholic: Busses are cancelled in Zone 1 (Brock).

• HaIton Public & Halton Catholic: Busses in Zone 3 (Halton Hills) are cancelled.

• Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: Buses are cancelled in the following regions: All busses for West Parry Sound (Britt/Nobel - Mcdougall/Whitestone/Ahmic Harbour - Town of Parry Sound - Mactier/Humphrey/Rosseau) are cancelled.

• Ottawa CarIeton Public & Ottawa Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Tri-Board: All busses are cancelled.

• Trillium Lakelands: All busses are cancelled.

• Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: All busses are cancelled.

• Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: Busses are cancelled in North Wellington (Division 3) and Dufferin County (Division 4). Schools in North Wellington and Dufferin County are closed.

• WaterIoo Public & WaterIoo Catholic: Busses in Wellesley, Wilmot and Woolwich Townships are cancelled
  

French Schools

• Conseil scolaire de district catholique Centre-Sud: There are several bus cancellations. Visit this link for details: https://www.cscmonavenir.ca/ecole/

• Conseil scolaire de district catholique de l'Est Ontarien: All busses are cancelled.

• Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: Busses are cancelled in: Arnprior, Brockville, Carleton Place, Almonte, Renfrew County (schools in Pembroke), United Counties of Prescott-Russell, Kingston, Marionville, Merrickville and Kemptville, Ottawa, and Trenton.

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde & Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: There are multiple cancellations. Please visit this link for details: https://infobus.francobus.ca/cancellations.aspx

Up to 20cm of Fresh Snow On Its Way For the Maritimes Wednesday and Thursday

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On the heels of some strong winds and a bit of snow Monday night and throughout the day Tuesday, it appears that snow and colder temperatures will close off the month of January for the Maritimes.

An incoming system will push into the region Wednesday morning, bringing snow to Western Nova Scotia and Southern New Brunswick shortly after sunrise. The snow will spread eastward through the morning and afternoon, reaching Cape Breton and PEI by the late afternoon.

This initial band of snow will be light to moderate, resulting in widespread amounts of roughly 5cm of snow across Nova Scotia and PEI as well as into Southern New Brunswick. Meanwhile, some scattered light snow is expected throughout the day across Central and Northern New Brunswick, which will also lead to up to 5cm of accumulation.

A second round of slightly heavier snowfall will move into Western Nova Scotia and Southern New Brunswick in the evening and make the commute home tricky, especially in the western half of the province. This snow will spread eastward through the remainder of the evening and overnight, leading to an additional 5-10cm of accumulation and up to 20cm overall.

The snow will taper off in the early morning hours, but there could be some flurries lingering throughout Thursday morning, especially in Eastern Nova Scotia and PEI. While not as windy as Monday night and Tuesday, wind gusts up to 50km/h are expected on Thursday which along with the cold air settling in, could drive windchill values closer to -25°C.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Alberta Clipper Likely to Cause Widespread School Bus Cancellations Across Southern Ontario on Wednesday

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Heavy snow is currently sweeping across Southern Ontario as an Alberta Clipper makes its way through the region. By Wednesday morning, this system is expected to deliver widespread snowfall totals of up to 15 cm across Eastern, Central, and Southwestern Ontario.

In addition to the snowfall from the system itself, lake effect snow will develop in the wake of the clipper, primarily around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

These squalls are expected to begin during the late morning and continue into Wednesday afternoon. Environment Canada has issued snow squall watches for these regions, which are likely to be upgraded to warnings by early Wednesday.

With heavy snow persisting overnight and the added impact of lake effect snow during the day, it is highly likely that school boards in affected areas will cancel school buses on Wednesday.

Most of the snow from the Alberta Clipper will fall Tuesday evening and taper off overnight for areas outside the snowbelt. However, rural regions may still struggle to clear backroads in time for the morning commute. This was evident on Tuesday when widespread cancellations occurred despite the snow ending hours before the morning bus runs.

Conditions on Wednesday are expected to be similar or even worse in some areas, particularly in Eastern Ontario, where snow will still be falling during the early morning hours.

The greatest likelihood of a "snow day" will be in rural school boards in Eastern Ontario, which are typically more cautious when it comes to heavy snow. Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties are also strong candidates for cancellations, as these areas are still digging out from previous snowfalls and are expected to see additional squalls on Wednesday.

For the rest of Central and Eastern Ontario, school bus cancellations remain uncertain. Decisions will largely depend on local road conditions and how efficiently crews can clear roads, especially critical backroads.

Urban areas like Ottawa and the Greater Toronto Area are not expected to experience enough snow to trigger bus cancellations. However, Ottawa has a slightly higher chance than Toronto due to ongoing snowfall during the early morning hours, which may make the roads more difficult to clear.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Southampton)

• Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter, Stratford & Listowel)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Owen Sound, Meaford & Hanover)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

• Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska)

• Upper Canada District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka & CKL)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Northumberland)

• Tri-Board (Belleville, Prince Edward County, South L&A & Kingston)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Renfrew & Pembroke)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Oxford)

• Waterloo Region District School Board

• Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington)

• Ottawa-Carleton District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (London & Elgin)

• Halton District School Board (North)

• Peel District School Board (North)

• York Region District School Board

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Near North District School Board (North Bay)

• Rainbow District School Board

• Algoma District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Another Dumping of Snow as an Alberta Clipper Targets Southern Ontario With Up to 20cm of Snow by Wednesday

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As January 2025 draws to a close, Southern Ontario’s weather has varied greatly depending on the region.

Snowbelt areas near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay have been bombarded by persistent lake-effect snow over the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, Eastern and Deep Southwestern Ontario have seen little snow this month, as no significant systems have impacted those areas.

That pattern is about to shift, with an Alberta Clipper poised to bring a widespread snowfall event across Southern Ontario. This system is expected to deliver 10 to 20 cm of snow to Eastern, Central, and Southwestern Ontario over the next 24 hours, including the snowbelt regions.

In addition to the clipper, snow squalls are forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon and continue into the evening. Combined system snow and lake effect snow could bring an additional 20 to 30 cm to areas east of Lake Huron between Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Snowfall from the clipper has already begun moving into Southwestern Ontario near Lake Huron as of late Tuesday afternoon.

Moderate to heavy snow will spread eastward through the evening, with the heaviest snow expected in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Central Ontario during the late afternoon and early evening.

Localized heavier snow is likely along the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shorelines, particularly over the Bruce Peninsula, where lake enhancement will add extra moisture to the system.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

For Southwestern Ontario, snowfall will begin to taper off by the evening and should exit areas southwest of Lake Simcoe by midnight.

Central and Eastern Ontario will continue to see snow through the early overnight hours, with the Ottawa Valley potentially experiencing snowfall until Wednesday morning, tapering off around sunrise.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Following the system’s departure, lake effect snow is expected to ramp up over Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Models indicate disorganized snow bands developing off Lake Huron on Wednesday afternoon, impacting areas like Grey, Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties. These bands may occasionally extend as far as Kitchener and Hamilton.

Additionally, a snow squall may form southeast of Georgian Bay, bringing heavy snow to the Barrie and Innisfil areas Wednesday afternoon. The intensity and duration of this squall remain uncertain.

By Wednesday evening, activity over Lake Huron may consolidate into a stronger squall targeting the corridor between Southampton and Kincardine, potentially extending to the Hanover area. This squall could lead to rapid snowfall accumulation before gradually weakening after midnight.

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The highest snowfall totals over the next 24 hours are expected in the Grey-Bruce region.

Communities such as Port Elgin, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Chatsworth, Mildmay, and Hanover are forecast to receive 10 to 15 cm of snow from the clipper and an additional 10 to 20 cm from lake effect snow on Wednesday.

This could bring total accumulations to 20 to 30 cm, with isolated pockets potentially exceeding 30 cm.

Across Central and Eastern Ontario, Alberta Clipper snowfall is generally expected to range from 10 to 15 cm. Areas southeast of Georgian Bay, including Barrie, may see near 20 cm due to the added snow from Wednesday afternoon’s localized squalls.

Lower totals are expected in the GTA and Niagara regions, as the system’s moisture will primarily focus further north, and lake enhancement will not play a role.

Snowfall amounts in the GTA are expected to range from 4 to 8 cm, with Hamilton and the Niagara corridor seeing even less at 2 to 4 cm.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, and London, will see little to no snow from this system. London could receive a few centimetres, while Windsor may only see a trace.

Looking ahead, we are monitoring a potential system moving in on Friday, which could bring snow and freezing rain to parts of Southern Ontario. Stay tuned for updates.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Tuesday, January 28, 2025

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Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are bus cancellations and school closures, please visit this link for more details: https://geoquery.hpsts.ca/Alerts

• BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are several cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://www.mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx

• Dufferin-PeeI Catholic & Peel Public: Buses to St Andrew, St. Peter, St. Benedict and RF Hall are cancelled today

• Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: All transportation is cancelled today in Northumberland and Peterborough City and County.

• Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: There are several cancellations. Please visit this link for more details: https://transportation.mybigyellowbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx

• Tri-Board: School transportation is cancelled in Tri-Board’s western weather zones today.

• Trillium LakeIands: Transportation is cancelled in all zones.

• Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All school taxis and buses in North Wellington (Division 3) and Dufferin County (Division 4) will not be operating today.

• WaterIoo Public & WaterIoo Catholic: There are multiple cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://bpweb.stswr.ca/Cancellations.aspx

French Schools

• Conseil scolaire de district catholique Centre-Sud: There are multiple cancellations. Visit this link for a complete list: https://www.cscmonavenir.ca/ecole/

• Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: Transportation is cancelled for Trenton.

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde & Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: There are multiple cancellations. Visit this link for a complete list: https://infobus.francobus.ca/cancellations.aspx

Blowing Snow Could Be a Concern Overnight and Into Tuesday Morning as Strong Winds Move Through the Maritimes

Model Image showing the location of snow at 3AM Tuesday, January 28th, 2025

We are continuing to track the intense squall line that is making its way across parts of Ontario and Quebec. Luckily, the strongest winds and blasts of heavy snow will pass through New England, but the Maritimes won’t be completely spared.

We’re already beginning to see the winds ramp up in New Brunswick and PEI, ahead of the squall line. Wind gusts are expected in the 60-80km/h range across the two provinces for the remainder of the evening and into the early morning. The strong winds will make their way into the Western half of Nova Scotia at around 9pm and will spread across the province overnight and continue through the morning.

These strong winds are expected to whip up the snow that is already on the ground, leading to localized white-out conditions and drifting snow. This will make travel in some areas difficult so make sure to take extra caution out on the roads during these conditions.

The snow associated with the squall line will follow the strong winds, moving into Northern New Brunswick after midnight. It will spread southeastward across the region throughout the morning, reaching Prince County, PEI just after sunrise and the Annapolis Valley and Cumberland County, Nova Scotia shortly after. This snowfall will be moderate and only last for a couple of hours, leading to isolated pockets of 5-10cm across the region, but it won’t be too impactful.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Will Grey-Bruce Ever Go Back to School? Another Day of Bus Cancellations Possible on Tuesday

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Heavy snow is set to sweep across Southern Ontario on Monday evening, bringing blizzard conditions and widespread blowing snow. The combination of reduced visibility and drifting snow will make travel hazardous in many areas.

Fortunately, in most regions, the snowfall is expected to taper off well before Tuesday morning. Winds will also weaken significantly overnight, leading to improved conditions by the time the morning bus run begins. Because of this, we do not anticipate widespread school bus cancellations across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.

However, the arrival of much colder air overnight will trigger lake-effect snow bands east of Lake Huron and south of Georgian Bay. Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings and watches for these areas, warning of poor travel conditions that could persist into Tuesday morning.

As a result, school bus cancellations are likely in regions such as Grey, Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties, where snowfall and blowing snow could create treacherous driving conditions. For students in Grey-Bruce, this could mark their seventh consecutive snow day, following cancellations last week and on Monday.

The heaviest snowfall from this system is expected in the Parry Sound and North Bay regions, where totals of up to 20 cm are possible. Given the school board's cautious approach to winter weather, there is a slight chance of cancellations in these areas, even if conditions improve significantly by the morning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Exeter)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Meaford)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel & Stratford)

• Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Hanover, Owen Sound & Bruce Peninsula)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka, Haliburton & North CKL)

• Rainbow District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Monday, January 27, 2025

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are several cancellations and even some CLOSURES, please visit this link for more details: https://mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx

• Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St. Peter, St. Andrew, St. Benedict and RF Hall are cancelled today due to winter weather conditions. All schools are open.

• Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: Bussing for all weather corridors are cancelled today. At this time, all schools remain open for students who can get there safely.

• Peel Public: here are cancellations for Peel Public. Visit https://businfo.stopr.ca/Cancellations.aspx for details.

• Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in the North Zone and the West Zone

• Upper Grand Public & Wellington Catholic: All school taxis and buses in North Wellington will not be operating today. All school taxis and buses in Dufferin County will not be operating today.

French Schools

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde & Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in the Simcoe North Zone and the SImcoe West Zone.

• Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: Bussing for all weather corridors are cancelled today for Near North & Nipissing-Parry Sound area. At this time, all schools remain open for students who can get there safely.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Looming Blizzard Risk Could Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Monday

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A mix of strong wind gusts and heavy snowfall is expected to create blizzard conditions starting Monday afternoon across parts of Southern Ontario.

Environment Canada has issued a blizzard warning for areas along the Eastern Georgian Bay shoreline, with a weather advisory extending through Muskoka and into Northern Ontario. These alerts signal the potential for hazardous weather, with significant impacts on visibility and travel conditions.

Given the seriousness of the situation, it is likely that school boards in the most affected regions will cancel school buses on Monday. However, for much of Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, widespread bus cancellations appear less likely. This is because the worst of the weather is expected to develop after the afternoon bus run, reducing the chances of a "snow day" for most students in these areas.

In regions where Environment Canada has issued blizzard warnings or advisories, conditions could deteriorate quickly during the afternoon hours. Central Ontario, including Muskoka, is expected to experience snow starting as early as 2 PM. In these areas, proactive decisions by school boards will be crucial to ensure safety, especially for students returning home in worsening weather.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, where the snow and strong winds are not expected to intensify until later in the day, the afternoon bus run should proceed without issue.

Ultimately, whether buses are cancelled will depend on how each school board interprets the forecast and balances the safety of students with the logistical realities of the storm’s timing. The further southeast you are located, the lower the chance of bus cancellations on Monday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka)

• Rainbow District School Board

• Algoma District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine, Southampton, Owen Sound, Hanover & Meaford)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

• Tri-Board (North Hastings)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska, Pembroke & Petawawa)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central & South Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Damaging Wind Storm Sweeps Into Ontario With Gusts Over 90 km/h and Blizzard Conditions on Monday

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The final week of January is shaping up to start with turbulent weather across Southern Ontario, as a damaging windstorm is set to impact the region on Monday.

Wind gusts are forecasted to reach 80 to 90 km/h across much of Southern Ontario during the day on Monday, with some localized pockets potentially seeing gusts exceeding 100 km/h.

Power outages are a significant concern for the hardest-hit regions, along with other types of wind-related damage, such as fallen tree branches and unsecured objects being blown around. In addition, the strong winds may create another hazard along the Great Lakes shoreline, where ice could be pushed ashore, causing damage to property along the lakes.

Adding to the danger, a sharp cold front is expected to sweep through Ontario over the next 24 hours, bringing a blast of wintry weather, including an intense frontal snow squall. Combined with the strong winds, some areas could experience blizzard-like conditions starting late Monday afternoon and lasting into the evening.

While this event isn’t expected to bring significant snowfall totals to Southern Ontario, accumulations could range from 5 to 15 cm, depending on the location.

However, areas east of Lake Superior in Northern Ontario may see higher amounts, with localized totals reaching 20 to 30 cm, while a broader area of Northeastern Ontario is expected to receive 10 to 20 cm.

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The windstorm is expected to begin early Monday morning across Southern Ontario, with wind speeds gradually increasing through mid-morning.

Southwestern Ontario, particularly areas along the Lake Huron shoreline, will experience the strongest winds first, around sunrise. These conditions will then spread east and north by early afternoon.

The strongest winds are anticipated during the early to mid-afternoon hours, with widespread gusts ranging from 70 to 90 km/h across the region.

Areas such as the Dundalk Highlands, Niagara region, Northern Lake Erie shoreline, and Prince Edward County could see slightly higher wind gusts due to their exposure to the lakes and elevated terrain. Gusts in these areas may exceed 100 km/h, possibly reaching 105 to 110 km/h near Collingwood along the Georgian Bay shoreline.

Other locations, including Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Guelph, Kitchener, Hamilton, Brantford, Britt, Parry Sound, Belleville, Kingston, and Brockville, could experience wind gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. This range represents the greatest potential for wind damage, including localized power outages.

The remainder of Southern Ontario—excluding Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley—can expect gusts between 80 and 90 km/h, with occasional stronger gusts. Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley are likely to see slightly weaker winds, with maximum gusts of 70 to 80 km/h.

For those with properties along the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Erie, the risk of ‘ice shoves’—where winds push broken ice onto shore—is a concern. This phenomenon can cause significant damage and flooding along the shoreline. Residents in affected areas should prepare for this potential over the next 24 hours.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Wind speeds are expected to diminish somewhat later in the afternoon and into Monday evening, though they will remain strong, ranging from 60 to 90 km/h. This coincides with the arrival of a pocket of moderate to heavy snow in Central Ontario during the late afternoon.

The snowfall is expected to begin affecting the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions between 2:00 and 4:00 PM, leading to blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions lasting several hours into the evening.

Travel during this time will likely be hazardous, with significantly reduced visibility and potentially closed roads. While snowfall rates won’t be overwhelming, at a few centimetres per hour, the strong winds will make conditions dangerous.

Travel should be avoided unless absolutely necessary. Fortunately, conditions are expected to improve within a few hours.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By dinnertime, widespread snowfall is likely across most of Central Ontario, portions of Eastern Ontario, and areas east of the Lake Huron shoreline.

The worst conditions are expected early in the event, as the snow begins and winds are strongest, with gradual improvement into the later evening hours.

The greatest risk of blizzard conditions will be across Grey-Bruce, the Georgian Bay shoreline, Muskoka, and Parry Sound, where the heaviest snow and strongest winds are forecasted to overlap.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

An intense, narrow band of snow is also expected to develop along the cold front as it moves through Southern Ontario in the evening.

This frontal snow squall could bring a sudden burst of heavy snow almost everywhere in Southern Ontario, lasting less than an hour.

The squall is expected to reach Central and Eastern Ontario by mid to late evening, while the Greater Toronto Area and Niagara region may not experience it until closer to midnight.

This squall is not expected to produce significant snowfall totals, as it will pass through quickly. However, it could bring 2 to 5 cm of snow within 15 to 30 minutes, along with brief but intense blowing snow.

Although conditions may feel like a blizzard during this time, they likely won’t meet the official criteria, which require blizzard conditions to last at least four hours. That criteria is more likely to be met around the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline as the snow starts earlier in the day.

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By the end of Monday, the highest snowfall totals are expected in the higher elevations of Central Ontario, including Huntsville, Sundridge, Algonquin Park, and North Bay, where accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are likely, though closer to the lower end of that range.

For the rest of Central Ontario and areas east of Lake Huron, including Hanover, Orangeville, and Collingwood, this event is expected to bring 5 to 10 cm of fresh snowfall.

Eastern Ontario and the Lake Huron shoreline should see 2 to 5 cm, primarily from the passing snow squall.

The Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario are likely to receive less than 2 cm of snow.

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In Northern Ontario, snow will begin late Sunday night and continue through much of Monday.

The heaviest accumulations will occur east of Lake Superior, where lake enhancement and embedded snow squalls could push totals to 20 to 30 cm in areas like Wawa and Sault Ste. Marie.

Blizzard conditions are possible during the morning and afternoon in these regions, with wind gusts reaching 70 to 90 km/h near the shoreline.

The rest of Northeastern Ontario, stretching from North Bay to Cochrane along the Quebec border, is expected to receive 10 to 20 cm of snow by the end of Monday.

Sudbury, which may find itself in a dry pocket, is forecasted to see 5 to 10 cm, closer to the lower end of that range, while Elliot Lake should receive less than 5 cm.

Snow Squalls Return to Southern Ontario This Weekend With Up to 20cm of Snow; Potential Wind Storm on Monday

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Southern Ontario has been gradually climbing out of the deep freeze earlier this week, which brought wind chills plunging into the -30s. This temporary reprieve has also slowed down the lake-effect snow machine.

However, a fresh surge of cold air over the next 24 hours will reignite the potential for snow squalls, particularly around Georgian Bay.

The good news is that this round of snow squall activity should be relatively short-lived. The squalls are expected to drift rather than anchor in one spot, which will help limit overall snowfall accumulation.

By the end of Sunday, areas along the eastern Georgian Bay shoreline and the Bruce Peninsula are forecast to receive between 10 and 20 cm of snow.

Despite the shorter duration, these squalls could still create hazardous conditions. Wind gusts will likely lead to blowing snow, further reducing visibility on roads and making travel potentially dangerous.

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Looking ahead, once the snow squalls subside late Sunday, attention shifts to a potentially significant windstorm developing across Southern Ontario starting Monday morning and lasting through the day.

Based on the latest data, wind gusts could approach or even exceed 100 km/h in some regions.

This powerful wind event will coincide with the arrival of a weather system bringing widespread snowfall to Southern Ontario beginning Monday afternoon.

While snowfall totals from the system are expected to range between 5 and 15 cm, the combination of strong wind gusts and falling snow could lead to blowing snow and, in some areas, blizzard conditions.

Driving conditions during Monday’s evening commute are expected to be very poor, with a high risk of power outages in areas that experience the strongest wind gusts.

Be prepared for possible heating disruptions if outages occur, as temperatures are forecast to drop sharply Monday night.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The cold front responsible for these changing conditions will sweep through Southern Ontario on Saturday evening. While surface temperatures will remain relatively stable, colder air aloft will fuel the lake-effect snow machine.

As a result, heavier snow pockets may develop east of Georgian Bay, particularly in the Parry Sound and northern Muskoka regions, aided by lake enhancement.

Snow squalls could also form within this setup, bringing locally higher snowfall amounts. Current projections suggest 5 to 15 cm of accumulation by Wednesday morning, but totals could reach up to 20 or even 25 cm if conditions align perfectly.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

High-resolution models show a significant snow squall developing over the southern Bruce Peninsula on Sunday morning.

This squall may extend across Georgian Bay, reaching Simcoe County and parts of Kawartha Lakes. It appears likely to linger for several hours between Orillia and Barrie, producing intense snowfall with rates approaching 5 cm per hour.

As the squall moves into Simcoe County during the afternoon, it is expected to weaken, leading to reduced snowfall rates. Additionally, weaker bands of lake-effect snow could develop off Lake Huron, potentially affecting areas like Kincardine, Hanover, and even parts of the Greater Toronto Area.

However, these bands are less certain and may only persist for a few hours on Sunday morning.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By Sunday evening, snow squall activity will likely shift northward into Muskoka and Parry Sound, intensifying briefly and delivering heavy snow to areas like Port Carling and Bracebridge.

Organized lake-effect snow activity should taper off by midnight, although minor flurries may linger into early Monday morning.

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Because the squalls are expected to move frequently, snowfall will be spread across a wider area rather than concentrating in one location.

Most regions along the eastern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Barrie, Muskoka, and Parry Sound, are forecast to receive between 10 and 20 cm of snow by Sunday evening. This also applies to the Bruce Peninsula and areas like Owen Sound and Meaford.

Localized amounts exceeding 20 cm are possible, particularly in the corridor between Orillia and Barrie, where intense snow squalls are expected on Sunday morning. However, the current data does not support widespread totals in the 20-30 cm range.

Outside the primary snowbelt areas, regions such as Haliburton, Lindsay, Keswick, and Flesherton are likely to see 5 to 10 cm of snow, depending on the placement of snow squalls and how far inland they extend.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, snowfall amounts will generally be less than 5 cm, with most of the snow falling on Saturday evening and overnight.

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The windstorm on Monday is expected to bring the strongest gusts to higher elevations, including the Dundalk Highlands, Collingwood, and Orangeville.

Wind gusts in these areas could reach 100 to 110 km/h, with similar strength expected along the escarpment, down into Hamilton, and across the Niagara region along the Lake Erie shoreline.

In Southwestern Ontario, gusts could exceed 90 km/h in areas east of Lake Huron, extending into Kitchener and the western Greater Toronto Area.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, gusts will likely range from 80 to 90 km/h, while Central and Eastern Ontario could see slightly weaker gusts of 70 to 80 km/h.

PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The addition of widespread snowfall on Monday afternoon and evening will exacerbate the impact of the wind. Blowing snow could create whiteout conditions, and some areas may experience blizzard-like conditions, especially in Southwestern Ontario.

While snowfall totals from this system aren’t expected to be excessive, with 5 to 15 cm possible across Southwestern and Central Ontario, the combination of snow and strong winds will make travel extremely challenging.

Further details on timing and accumulation specifics will be shared in a forecast update on Sunday. Stay tuned!

'Snow Day' Forecast: Likely Bus Cancellations on Friday Could Give Some Students an Entire Week of Snow Days in Southwestern Ontario

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Isolated snow squall activity is set to return along parts of the eastern Lake Huron shoreline, persisting until Friday. Environment Canada has issued a snow squall warning, highlighting the potential for significant snowfall accumulation of 15 to 30 cm by Friday morning.

This weather event could lead to yet another round of school bus cancellations for students in parts of Huron, Grey, and Bruce counties. If buses are cancelled, Friday would mark the fifth consecutive snow day for some students in these regions—a full week of snow days. Parents, we feel for you!

Meanwhile, lake-effect snow activity off other Great Lakes, including Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie, has eased significantly. As a result, there’s little to no potential for snow day impacts in areas away from Lake Huron.

The snow squall activity will remain highly localized, primarily affecting communities directly along the Lake Huron shoreline. The likelihood of school bus cancellations drops considerably for areas further inland, where the snow squalls are expected to have minimal impact.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

• Bluewater District School Board (Hanover)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Stratford)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Heavy Lake Effect Snow May Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Thursday

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Pockets of heavy lake-effect snow accompanied by localized snow squalls are expected to develop tonight across areas near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, and Lake Ontario.

These conditions are likely to result in notable snowfall accumulations ranging from 10 to 20 cm, as well as near-zero visibility throughout much of Thursday morning and afternoon.

Environment Canada has issued a range of advisories, watches, and warnings across these regions, reflecting the potentially hazardous conditions. With this in mind, school boards in some of the hardest-hit areas may choose to cancel school buses on Thursday morning.

The highest likelihood of cancellations is in the Sudbury, Manitoulin Island, and Bruce Peninsula regions, where snow squall warnings are currently in effect. These areas are expected to experience the most intense snowfall and the worst visibility.

Elsewhere, locally heavy lake-effect snow could develop along the Lake Huron shoreline. Environment Canada has issued a weather advisory for this region, highlighting the possibility of impactful snow.

Meanwhile, a snow squall watch has been issued for parts of the northern Lake Ontario shoreline, including areas from Oshawa to Colborne.

The impact of lake-effect snow in these advisory and watch zones remains uncertain, and conditions could vary significantly depending on the development and positioning of the squalls.

Given this uncertainty, we're assigning a 50% chance of school bus cancellations in these areas, as the decision could easily go either way.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Rainbow District School Board

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Southampton)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington and Northumberland)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel and Exeter)

• Bluewater District School Board (Hanover and Owen Sound)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound and North Bay)

• Durham District School Board (Oshawa)

• Algoma District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Stratford)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

• Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka and South CKL)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Tri-Board (Belleville and Prince Edward County)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Third Day of School Bus Cancellations Possible in Parts of Central Ontario on Wednesday

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While the regions impacted by snow squalls have narrowed compared to earlier in the week, these squalls are still expected to bring significant effects to parts of the Bruce Peninsula and the Parry Sound region.

Heavy snow combined with near-zero visibility and bitterly cold temperatures will likely keep school buses off the roads in some areas on Wednesday. For certain school boards, this would mark the third day of bus cancellations this week—a testament to how persistent and disruptive these squalls have been.

Meanwhile, much of Southwestern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, is bracing for what could be the coldest night of the year. Environment Canada has issued widespread Extreme Cold Warnings, forecasting wind chills between -30°C and -35°C by Wednesday morning.

While these wind chills are dangerously cold, they are unlikely to reach the threshold for a ‘cold day’ in most school boards, which typically only cancel buses when wind chills dip below -40°C.

However, there remains a low chance of cancellations, especially if temperatures end up colder than predicted. Given this, we've assigned a widespread 5-10% chance of cancellations in areas under the Extreme Cold Warning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

• Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

• Tri-Board (Prince Edward County)

• Rainbow District School Board

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Hanover)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton & North CKL)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• District School Board of Niagara (South Region)

• Tri-Board (Belleville and South L&A)

• Near North District School Board (North Bay)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: School Bus Cancellations All but Certain for Muskoka, Parry Sound & Grey-Bruce on Tuesday

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Localized snow squall activity is forecasted to intensify late Monday and persist through Tuesday, bringing hazardous conditions to the Bruce Peninsula and parts of Muskoka.

These squalls will result in rapid snowfall accumulation, with localized totals potentially nearing 100 cm in the hardest-hit areas. Near-zero visibility caused by heavy snowfall and blowing snow will make travel extremely dangerous and, in many cases, nearly impossible.

Given these conditions, school bus cancellations are almost guaranteed in the regions most severely impacted. The combination of intense snow squalls and dangerously cold temperatures makes it highly unlikely that busing can be safely provided in these areas on Tuesday.

Snow squall activity may also extend to parts of the far southern Niagara region and Prince Edward County. While both areas could experience impacts, Prince Edward County is more likely to see a snow day due to the local school board’s being more sensitive to heavy snow.

The Niagara region has a lower chance of widespread cancellations, with the Fort Erie area being the most likely to see disruptions if squalls push far enough north.

Outside of the snow squall regions, the extreme cold on Monday morning did not lead to widespread cancellations, and similar temperatures are expected on Tuesday. As a result, it is unlikely that the cold alone will justify bus cancellations across most areas.

The exception may be the North Bay region, where buses were cancelled on Monday due to extreme cold and may face the same outcome again on Tuesday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Hanover)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound and North Bay)

• Tri-Board (Prince Edward County)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• District School Board of Niagara (South Region)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL North)

• Tri-Board (Belleville and South L&A)

• Rainbow District School Board

• Algoma District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel, Stratford and Exeter)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

• Tri-Board (Kingston)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

High-Impact Snow Squall Event Could Bring Up to 100 cm and Blizzard Conditions to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt Starting Monday

MAP UPDATED @ 3:30 PM - JANUARY 20, 2025 - NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Chilly Arctic air has begun sweeping into Southern Ontario this weekend, marking the return of lake-effect snow activity off the Great Lakes. While snow squalls on Sunday have been relatively limited, they are expected to organize and intensify as the evening progresses.

Intense snow squalls are set to impact areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay from Monday through Tuesday. Portions of the Niagara region and Prince Edward County may also experience squalls driven by activity off Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

Moderate wind gusts of 50-60 km/h are likely to develop on Monday morning. When combined with heavy snow, these winds could cause blowing snow and localized blizzard-like conditions in some areas. Poor travel conditions are anticipated, with road closures possible throughout Monday and into Tuesday.

The Bruce Peninsula is expected to bear the brunt of these squalls. A prolonged and intense squall is likely to lock in over the region from Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with snowfall totals potentially approaching 100 cm.

Other areas along the Lake Huron shoreline, as well as parts of Simcoe County and Muskoka, could see snowfall accumulations of 25-50 cm by the end of Tuesday.

This forecast also extends to the southern tip of Prince Edward County, south of Picton, where a Lake Ontario squall could drift across the county before moving into New York State.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As of Sunday evening, a pocket of heavy snow over Lake Ontario is affecting northern Niagara. Meanwhile, a squall over Lake Huron has diminished but is expected to reorganize by midnight.

According to the latest model data, a very narrow yet intense squall is likely to develop over the Goderich area overnight. Snowfall rates could reach 10-15 cm per hour, with higher ratios due to colder temperatures.

This could result in rapid snow accumulation across Huron County, particularly in the Goderich region, through Monday morning.

There is some uncertainty regarding how far inland this squall will extend. However, it could potentially stretch into the Kitchener area, through Burlington and Hamilton, and become further enhanced as it moves back onshore over the Niagara region via Lake Ontario.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By Monday afternoon, a shift to more westerly winds is expected, pushing the Lake Huron squall towards the Bruce Peninsula. The squall is predicted to stall over the northern and central parts of the peninsula by Monday evening.

Wind gusts will strengthen throughout Monday afternoon and evening, reaching 50-60 km/h in some areas. These winds are likely to create blowing snow and near-zero visibility, making travel nearly impossible east of Lake Huron. While conditions may not officially meet blizzard criteria, they will be very close.

Model projections diverge on the squall's movement after it crosses Georgian Bay. Canadian models suggest a variable wind direction could cause the squall to curve northward into Muskoka and Parry Sound instead of continuing east.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Meanwhile, the American model indicates a more southerly trajectory, targeting Midland, Honey Harbour, and Washago. This model also suggests secondary squall activity could impact southern Bruce-Grey areas, including Port Elgin and Owen Sound.

Both models agree that upper-level winds will likely keep the squall close to the Georgian Bay shoreline. This may spare inland areas like Bracebridge, Gravenhurst, and Orillia from the heaviest snowfall, though the squall's reach could still surprise some locations.

There is also uncertainty regarding squalls over Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. While these squalls may drift northward into Fort Erie and southern Prince Edward County, they could remain concentrated south of the border.

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Snow squall activity is expected to remain stationary through Monday night into Tuesday morning, with snowfall rates of 5-10 cm per hour possible.

The Bruce Peninsula squall may gradually drift southward on Tuesday afternoon, although it is expected to weaken slightly as wind directions shift. Despite this, squalls will likely persist over the Grey-Bruce region throughout Tuesday.

Snow squalls are anticipated to continue into Wednesday, although their intensity and direction remain uncertain. Southwesterly winds may develop, which could direct squalls over the Bruce Peninsula and extend into the Parry Sound region.

MAP UPDATED @ 3:30 PM - JANUARY 20, 2025 - NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

UPDATED FORECAST (3:30 PM - JAN 20, 2025)

Muskoka, before you grab a pitchfork to take out your snow frustrations, you might want to trade it in for a snow shovel—you’re going to need it. 😉

The latest model data this morning doesn’t bring good news for those in Muskoka hoping for a break from the snow. How does another 50-100 cm sound?

In our initial forecast, we mentioned that model data suggested snow squall activity would stay primarily along the Georgian Bay shoreline. This meant that areas further inland, such as Bracebridge, Port Carling, and Gravenhurst, could avoid the brunt of the snow.

Unfortunately, the newest data paints a different picture. This morning’s updates indicate that snow squalls will push much further inland than originally expected. The models also show an increase in the intensity of these squalls, starting late this afternoon and continuing all day through Tuesday.

As a result, we’ve made adjustments to our forecast, extending the zone of heavy snow further inland east of Georgian Bay. Additionally, we’re now introducing a 50-100 cm snowfall zone for Muskoka, similar to what was previously focused over the Bruce Peninsula.

Locations such as Port Carling, Rosseau, Port Sydney, and Bracebridge are now directly in the crosshairs, with the potential for up to 100 cm of snow by the end of Tuesday. Meanwhile, the forecast for the Bruce Peninsula—covering Tobermory, Lion’s Head, and Wiarton—remains unchanged, with totals still expected to reach 50-100 cm.

For the rest of Muskoka, including Huntsville and Gravenhurst, as well as Parry Sound and Midland, snowfall accumulations of 25-50 cm are likely. This range also applies to the Owen Sound, Meaford, and Port Elgin areas.

You might notice a slight reduction in the forecast east of Lake Huron. This adjustment reflects snowfall that already occurred last night and early this morning, especially in areas like Goderich. These regions are expected to see an additional 15-25 cm of snow by the end of Tuesday.

Our forecast for Fort Erie and Prince Edward County remains unchanged. Squall activity off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could bring 15-25 cm of snow to the southern Niagara region, including Fort Erie. Meanwhile, southern Prince Edward County, particularly south of Picton, could see totals ranging from 25-50 cm.

See below for our Lake Ontario and Lake Erie forecast.

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PREVIOUS FORECAST:

Given the frequent mention of the Bruce Peninsula in this forecast, it’s no surprise that this region is expected to receive the most snowfall from this event.

Accumulations of 50-100 cm are projected for areas including Tobermory, Lion’s Head, and Wiarton. Some locations may even exceed 100 cm if the squall remains stationary for an extended period.

Along the Lake Huron shoreline, areas such as Goderich, Point Clark, Kincardine, Port Elgin, Chatsworth, Owen Sound, and Meaford are likely to see 25-50 cm of snowfall by Tuesday’s end. As with most snow squalls, localized variations in totals are expected based on the squall's exact path.

Similar snowfall amounts of 25-50 cm are possible along the eastern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Midland and MacTier. However, these totals will be highly localized, as the squall’s path is still uncertain.

Further inland, areas east of Lake Huron, such as Listowel, Hanover, and Flesherton, are forecasted to receive 15-25 cm of snow. Western Muskoka and Simcoe County, including Port Carling, Bala, Washago, and Gravenhurst, could also see 15-25 cm.

Brief periods of heavy snow are possible in the western GTA, Kitchener, Barrie, and parts of Muskoka, leading to localized accumulations of 5-15 cm. Most areas will likely remain on the lower end of this range, but isolated pockets could approach 15 cm.

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The St. Catharines and Niagara-on-the-Lake regions are currently experiencing locally heavy snow, which is expected to continue overnight. By Monday morning, total snowfall, including amounts already fallen, could range from 15-25 cm.

Fort Erie may also see 15-25 cm of snow if the Lake Erie squall edges far enough north. However, there is a possibility that the squall will remain south of the border, resulting in minimal accumulation on the Canadian side.

In Prince Edward County, the southernmost tip exposed to Lake Ontario could see 25-50 cm of snow. Slight shifts in the squall’s position could significantly impact snowfall totals, with Picton potentially receiving 15-25 cm under favourable conditions.

The rest of Southern Ontario is expected to see less than 5 cm of snow from this event. The Ottawa Valley and areas in deep southwestern Ontario will likely experience the least snowfall, with accumulations of less than 2 cm by Tuesday.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Threat of Extreme Cold and Snow Squalls Will Likely Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Monday

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A dangerous combination of strong snow squalls and bitterly cold temperatures is expected to impact areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay starting this evening and continuing into Monday.

Environment Canada has already issued snow squall warnings for regions along the Lake Huron shoreline, highlighting the potential for significant snowfall accumulations. Some areas could see totals ranging from 30 to 60 cm by the end of the event.

This combination of heavy snow and extreme cold will create hazardous driving conditions, making travel dangerous and potentially life-threatening. With these factors in play, it’s highly likely that school buses will be cancelled across many parts of Southern Ontario on Monday.

Even areas not expecting snow squall activity could face cancellations due to the cold alone. Environment Canada has warned of wind chills in the -30s tonight and into Monday morning, which could be enough to keep buses off the roads.

That said, it’s not guaranteed. Many school boards have specific thresholds for cancellations, typically requiring air temperatures of -30°C or wind chills of -40°C or colder to call off transportation.

Monday morning’s conditions may fall just short of these criteria, particularly in Central and Eastern Ontario. Given the current data, we estimate about a 50/50 chance of school bus cancellations in those regions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Exeter)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel & Stratford)

• Near North District School Board (North Bay)

• Rainbow District School Board

• Algoma District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka & Haliburton)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound & East Parry Sound)

• Tri-Board (North Hastings)

• Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Waterloo Region District School Board

• District School Board of Niagara (North Region)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL North)

• Tri-Board (Central Hastings & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (City of London)

• District School Board of Niagara (South Region)

• STWDSTS (Guelph)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL South)

• Tri-Board (Belleville, Central L&A & South Frontenac)

• Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.