Retrograding Storm Will Bring a Freezing Rain Threat To New Brunswick Friday

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It’s been an extended wet stretch through the Maritimes lately and that pattern is set to continue over the next couple of days. A low pressure system that has been bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Newfoundland has begun to retrograde and travel westward towards the Maritimes, where it is expected to bring even more rain to the already soggy region starting later tonight.

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Most of the Maritimes can expect steady rain, that could be heavy at times, throughout the day Friday and into Saturday, with a widespread 5-30mm falling across the region and up to 50mm possible in the Cape Breton Highlands.

The leading edge of this storm, however, will encounter cool air over land in New Brunswick, with temperatures hovering around 0°C or just below, resulting in freezing rain falling for up to several hours. The freezing rain will begin in the early morning hours and gradually spread westward throughout the morning. As temperatures climb throughout the day, the freezing rain will transition to rain, but surfaces will still be quite slick with a thin layer of ice.

Up to 2mm of ice accretion can be expected across most of the province and closer to 4mm could be seen in the northwest where the cooler air will persist, leading to 4-6 hours of freezing rain. Areas along the eastern coast look like they will be spared from the freezing rain since temperatures are expected to stay a few degrees above freezing overnight. Make sure to take extra caution when travelling along icy roads and sidewalks tomorrow morning.

What's in a Name? Choosing the Right Tires to Drive you Through Canadian Winters

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Tread patterns of summer, all season and winter tires. Image courtesy of discount tire.

Now that it’s the first week of November, many Canadians are starting to think about putting winter tires on their vehicles. There have been pockets of unseasonable warmth across the country in October and the start of November, the inevitable chill of winter is in the air, and many have already seen snow fall.

While winter tires are recommended throughout the country, they are mandatory in Quebec from December 1st to March 15th, and from October 1st to April 30th on certain British Columbia highways. Additionally, studded tires are allowed almost nationwide, with the exception of residents of Southern Ontario.

Insurance companies across the country offer discounts for installing winter tires as an incentive to encourage drivers to reduce the risk of accidents. So what makes winter tires that much better in the cold and snow than summer tires and where do all season and all weather tires fit into the mix?

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With the right tools, it can be pretty easy to change your own tires!

Summer Tires

Summer tires are designed to handle both wet and dry road conditions with their wide tread and soft rubber. These tires also usually have deeper grooves that improve traction on wet roads and reduce hydroplaning, making them ideal for the wet spring and summer months.

Winter Tires

Like their name suggests, winter tires have been designed for winter roads. They are made with rubber that stays flexible at temperatures below 7°C (45°F), the magic number at which other tires become stiff and lose traction, greatly reducing their performance. Furthermore, winter tires have different tread patterns that are meant to divert water and slush to the sides, as well as little slits called sipes that increase the overall grip of the tires and helping them maintain contact with icy road surfaces. Over the past several years, tire manufacturers have started to include additional small particles, like crushed glass or walnut shells, that act as little studs on the surface of the tire for extra grip.

Performance of All Season Tires vs Winter Tires with decreasing temperatures. Image courtesy of Discount Tire.

All Season & All Weather Tires

Some people argue that winter tires aren’t necessary if they have all season tires on their vehicle. Unfortunately, this is a slight misnomer because while these tires can handle a bit of cold and snow, they fail to handle heavier snowfalls that are common in Canadian winters. All season tires, unfortunately, sacrifice traction in wet conditions that would be found in summer tires and some of the flexibility and grip seen with winter tires in order for the tread to last longer. Realistically, these should be called 3 season tires as opposed to all season. So while they’re not the best option for winter driving in Canada, all season tires are definitely a better choice than regular summer tires.

All weather tires, not to be confused with all season tires, are a true year-round tire designed to handle Canadian winters. Unlike all season tires, these tires remain soft and flexible well below 7°C. The tread pattern on all weather tires is a combination of all season and winter tires, making them better suited for driving through heavier snow than all season tires. While they still don’t match the performance of a true winter tire, all weather tires are the best option for those who don’t want the hassle of swapping out their tires twice per year or simply do not have the space to store an extra set. Their versatility truly makes all weather tires a middle of the road tire (pun intended) for Canadian drivers.

The three-peak mountain snowflake symbol found on winter and all weather tires. Image courtesy of Canadian tire.

When looking for tires to get you through the winter, it is recommended to chose either a proper winter tire or an all weather tire, so long as it has the three-peak mountain and snowflake symbol on the sidewall. This is an industry standard symbol which indicates that the tire meets strict regulations for winter performance; becoming mandatory on all winter tires beginning in 2018, transitioning away from just using the M+S (Mud and Snow) designation.

Further Reading

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/how-to/automotive/how-to-choose-winter-tires.html

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-laws-in-canada/

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-markings/

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/tires-below-45

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/winter-summer-allseason

Note: The author formerly received payments from “Big Tire” however, this article was not funded.

Trick-or-Treat: A Potential Spooky ‘Headless’ Comet Could Be Visible Across Canada Around Halloween

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It's been a spectacular year for skywatchers across Canada, with events like solar eclipses, supermoons, and vibrant northern lights lighting up the night. Now, it looks like we might be in for another treat—a "headless" comet could make an appearance just in time for Halloween.

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October seems to be the month of comets, with Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS gracing the early evening skies recently. Many stargazers caught glimpses of the comet, which was visible in the western sky just after sunset. Although it has since faded from naked-eye visibility, you can still catch it with a telescope, and it will remain somewhat visible into early November.

But the cosmic show isn’t over yet. A second comet, called Comet ATLAS (C/2024 S1), may arrive just in time for Halloween, and it comes with a spooky twist—it could appear "headless." The comet’s name might sound familiar because it was discovered by the same ATLAS asteroid tracking system, known for spotting objects that could potentially impact Earth.

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The main difference between this upcoming comet and the earlier one lies in its path. While the first comet passed safely between Earth and the Sun, around 40 million miles from the Sun, this new comet will come much closer, potentially within 700,000 miles of the Sun's surface. Because of this close approach, scientists predict that the comet’s head—its bright core—might disintegrate due to the Sun's intense heat, leaving just a faint, trailing tail visible from Earth.

To understand what makes a comet appear "headless," it's important to know a bit about its structure. Comets are made up of a nucleus, or core, composed of rock, dust, and frozen gases. When they approach the Sun, the heat causes the frozen gases to vaporize, forming a glowing coma around the nucleus and a tail that extends away from the Sun. If the nucleus disintegrates, the glowing head might vanish, leaving behind only a ghostly tail, hence the term "headless comet."

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ESTIMATED BRIGHTNESS OF COMET - SOURCE: sKYWALK.SPACE

The exact visibility of this comet remains uncertain. It will come closest to Earth on October 24th as it travels toward the Sun, reaching its closest point to the Sun, known as perihelion, on October 28th. There’s even a chance it could be bright enough to see during the day, potentially appearing as bright as Venus from 7:12 AM to 8:06 AM (ET) in the east-southeastern sky.

However, those in the Northern Hemisphere may struggle to spot it due to its position low in the sky near the Sun, making it difficult to see without obstruction from sunlight or clouds.

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NASA offers some tips for spotting the comet during this close approach. To view it safely, you should block the Sun with an object such as a building or tree, then scan the lower left of the Sun's position in the sky. Be cautious and never use binoculars or telescopes, as accidentally focusing on the Sun can cause serious eye damage.

If the comet survives its close encounter with the Sun, it could become visible in the night sky around Halloween. This would provide skywatchers with a unique opportunity to see a potentially "headless" comet, with a long, wispy tail but no visible nucleus. The darkness of the moonless night sky could offer ideal conditions for observing this unusual celestial visitor, making it a fitting cosmic event for the spooky season.

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There is always the possibility that the comet disintegrates completely, leaving nothing visible to the naked eye. But if it endures, it will gradually fade after November 1st, requiring binoculars or a telescope for further observation. Unlike earlier this month, when a supermoon washed out the sky, the absence of a full moon could make for an even more impressive show, assuming the comet survives.

Stay tuned for updates as we keep an eye on this intriguing comet.

Why the Northern Lights Are Appearing More Frequently: NASA and NOAA Confirm Solar Maximum

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Visible light images from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory highlight the appearance of the Sun at solar minimum (left, Dec. 2019) versus solar maximum (right, August 2024). During solar minimum, the Sun is often spotless. Sunspots are associated with solar activity, and are used to track solar cycle progress. Credit: NASA/SDO

During a recent teleconference, experts from NASA, NOAA, and the International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel confirmed that the Sun has entered its solar maximum, a period of heightened solar activity expected to last through the next year.

The solar cycle reaches this peak roughly every 11 years, during which the Sun shifts from a relatively calm state to a much more active phase characterized by increased magnetic activity and a higher number of sunspots. These sunspots, which are cooler areas on the Sun’s surface caused by intense magnetic fields, can trigger powerful solar eruptions that significantly impact space weather.

This surge in solar activity doesn’t just make for an interesting spectacle; it can also have practical consequences on Earth. Solar flares and eruptions during this time can interfere with communications, disrupt GPS signals, and even affect power grids. They can also pose potential hazards to satellites and astronauts in orbit.

But for skywatchers, there is an upside: the solar maximum period also brings more frequent and spectacular aurora displays. The increased solar storms energize the Earth’s magnetosphere, producing stunning Northern Lights that light up the night sky.

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The Solar Cycle 25 forecast, produced by the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is co-chaired by NASA and NOAA. Sunspot number is an indicator of solar cycle strength - the higher the sunspot number, the stronger the cycle. Credit: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center

This past May, a powerful series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) resulted in one of the most intense geomagnetic storms seen in decades, setting the stage for breathtaking aurora displays visible across Canada. For many, it was a rare opportunity to experience the vivid greens, reds, and purples dancing across the sky.

If you didn’t catch those May displays or other recent aurora events, there’s no need to worry. With the Sun currently in its solar maximum, NASA and NOAA anticipate ongoing solar and geomagnetic storms in the coming months, which means there will be many more chances to witness the auroras.

Although the Sun is already in an active phase, pinpointing the exact peak of this cycle will take time as scientists closely monitor the number and intensity of sunspots and solar eruptions.

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Exciting research efforts are also underway to better understand the Sun's behavior during this dynamic period. NASA is preparing for a major milestone in solar exploration, with the Parker Solar Probe set to make its closest approach to the Sun in December 2024. This mission, along with other initiatives, aims to deepen our knowledge of space weather and its effects on our planet.

Here at Instant Weather, we’re committed to keeping you informed about significant solar activity and providing timely alerts for aurora viewing opportunities across Canada. As the Sun continues to show off during this solar maximum, be sure to stay tuned for updates and get ready for more spectacular light shows in the sky.

‘Strong’ Geomagnetic Storm Takes Aim at Earth; Northern Lights May Dazzle the Skies Across Canada on Thursday & Friday

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One of the most powerful solar flares in recent years erupted from the sun on Tuesday evening, classified as an X7.1 flare. Initially, it was unclear whether this flare had produced a coronal mass ejection (CME), which is a large expulsion of plasma and magnetic field from the sun’s corona.

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However, data that came in later confirmed that a CME was indeed produced and, more importantly, appears to be Earth-directed. This means that the CME is expected to impact our planet, setting off the possibility of a ‘strong’ geomagnetic storm and potentially bringing the northern lights much farther south than usual across Canada to close out the week.

The exact timing of the CME's arrival, however, remains somewhat uncertain. Forecast models suggest it could arrive anywhere between late Thursday and early Saturday. The CME might even come in multiple waves, according to the latest data.

If this happens, we could be in for two consecutive nights of auroras lighting up the skies—if the conditions align perfectly! While the Northern Lights are never guaranteed, the next couple of nights offer a decent chance to catch a breathtaking display, depending on where you are located.

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The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch, with the CME expected to reach Earth between Thursday and Saturday. Based on the latest observations, this CME could trigger G1 (minor) to G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm conditions.

The SWPC’s latest forecast predicts that a 'strong' (G3) geomagnetic storm may unfold late Thursday evening into the early overnight hours, followed by a potentially more prolonged geomagnetic storm ranging from ‘moderate’ (G2) to ‘strong’ (G3) on Friday night into Saturday morning.

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A G2 to G3 storm is strong enough to make the northern lights visible across much of Canada, especially if conditions are just right. In the past, storms of this magnitude have allowed the auroras to be seen as far south as Southern Ontario, and in some cases, even into the northern United States. In fact, the SWPC notes the possibility of the auroras being visible as far south as parts of the lower Midwest and Oregon in the U.S.

That said, space weather forecasting comes with some inherent uncertainty. The exact timing of a CME’s arrival can vary, and its intensity is often unknown until a few hours before it strikes Earth. There is usually a 12- to 24-hour window for the CME’s arrival, which means that although the current forecast favours North American viewing on Thursday and Friday nights, the event could just as easily occur during daylight hours, rendering it invisible to viewers in North America and giving those in Europe a better chance at catching the show instead.

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Aside from timing, cloud cover will also be a crucial factor in determining whether you'll have a good view of the northern lights. As of now, fairly clear skies are expected across much of southern Canada on Thursday night. Specifically, areas of Atlantic Canada, Southern Quebec, and Southern Ontario are forecasted to have little to no cloud cover during the overnight hours, which is ideal for aurora viewing.

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Further north, however, there could be widespread cloud cover that might obstruct the view around James Bay in Northern Ontario and Quebec. Similarly, Northwestern Ontario could see some cloudiness, with the exception of a pocket near the International border around Thunder Bay.

In Southern Manitoba, skies look clear south of the Interlake region, though clouds will likely impact Northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

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For Western Canada, Southern Saskatchewan and Southeastern Alberta are expected to have the clearest conditions. Meanwhile, much of British Columbia, along with central and northern Alberta, could see cloud cover that may limit visibility.

Check out our free app, Instant Weather for a more in-depth cloud coverage forecast specific to your exact location.

If you’re planning to watch for the auroras, another factor working in your favour this time around is the moon phase. Unlike last month’s aurora event, the moon is currently near 0% full, as we’ve just had a new moon on Tuesday night. This means that there won’t be any moonlight competing with the northern lights, making it easier to spot even faint auroras.

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When it comes to where the northern lights might be visible, it all depends on the strength of the geomagnetic storm and how it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Historically, during a 'strong' (G3) storm, auroras are most visible across northern Canada, including Northern Quebec, Far Northern Ontario, the Prairies, and parts of British Columbia. In these regions, the northern lights could be visible overhead and bright enough to see with the naked eye.

In southern regions, including Northeastern Ontario (Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and North Bay), as well as parts of Quebec, there’s a chance of seeing the auroras overhead or just above the horizon.

This could extend into northern parts of Southern Ontario, including Muskoka, Algonquin Park, and the Ottawa Valley. However, depending on the storm's strength, auroras may only be visible along the northern horizon, and you might need a camera to capture them, as they may not be strong enough for the naked eye.

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For the rest of Southern Ontario and into Atlantic Canada, if the auroras appear, they will likely be on the northern horizon. Here, too, you may need a camera or smartphone to capture the lights, as they may be too faint to see without assistance.

Remember, light pollution can greatly impact your ability to see the northern lights, especially in urban areas. For the best viewing experience, it’s essential to get away from city lights. A resource like DarkSiteFinder can help you locate areas with low light pollution for optimal aurora viewing.

Northern Lights Timing

Many are accustomed to the precise scheduling of weather events, from thunderstorms and winter weather to solar eclipses, where timing is crucial. It’s understandable, then, that there’s a desire for a similar pinpoint timing for the best viewing of the aurora. However, the reality of predicting the best time to view the northern lights is not so straightforward.

Here’s the deal: Unlike weather events driven by terrestrial conditions, the aurora is influenced by solar activity, which is far less predictable. We can estimate that the northern lights are best viewed from just after sunset to just before sunrise, provided the skies are dark and clear. Beyond that, precise timing for peak aurora activity is challenging to forecast with current technology.

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Space weather forecasting doesn't yet allow us to predict exactly when solar energy will impact Earth. We know it's coming, but how and when it interacts with our planet's magnetic field can vary. Often, we only have a few hours' notice before the solar energy is detected by satellites.

Furthermore, the intensity of the northern lights can fluctuate significantly over short periods. You might have noticed this variance if you've observed the lights before—periods of dim activity suddenly bursting into vibrant colors. This is due to the variable concentration of solar particles interacting with our atmosphere.

While we can inform you a few hours ahead when conditions are likely to be good, predicting the exact peak of aurora activity is akin to forecasting the peak of a meteor shower; we know the best night but not the best hour.

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Eyes to the Sky! Northern Lights Could Make an Appearance Across Canada on Monday

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A powerful solar flare, reaching an impressive X4.5 rating, erupted on Saturday, sending an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. This CME is expected to impact our planet, sparking geomagnetic storm conditions that could bring the northern lights much farther south than usual across Canada on Monday.

As with most space weather events, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the CME's arrival. According to the latest data, the strongest storm conditions are anticipated during the mid to late morning hours on Monday, gradually weakening throughout the day. This suggests the best viewing opportunity for the auroras may occur in the pre-dawn hours, particularly in Western Canada.

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However, this isn’t set in stone. Space weather forecasting can be tricky, and the CME might arrive later than expected, which would actually be the ideal outcome for North American skywatchers. A delayed arrival could mean a spectacular display of the northern lights over large portions of the country on Monday night.

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is forecasting a "strong" geomagnetic storm (G3 on a scale of 5) to develop sometime on Monday. A G3 storm is potent enough to make the northern lights visible across much of Canada, provided the conditions align just right.

Historically, storms of this strength have allowed auroras to be seen as far south as Southern Ontario, and sometimes even into northern parts of the United States. In fact, the SWPC mentions the possibility of auroras being visible as far south as Pennsylvania and Iowa.

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Based on the SWPC’s latest forecast, the geomagnetic storm is expected to peak between 5 AM and 11 AM EDT (2 AM to 8 AM PDT). A moderate (G2) storm is projected to continue through the day, potentially lasting until 11 PM EDT (8 PM PDT).

If this timing holds, the best chances to witness the northern lights would be in Western Canada during the early morning hours on Monday, when the storm is at its peak. Unfortunately, for those in Ontario and Quebec, the storm may hit after sunrise, reducing the likelihood of a good aurora display.

That said, if the CME arrives later in the day, it could extend the storm into Monday night, offering a better chance for Eastern Canada to catch the auroras, assuming clear skies.

IMAGE FROM WeatherBell

Speaking of skies, Monday night’s cloud forecast looks promising for much of Canada. The latest model shows most areas should have a good view, with only Southeastern Manitoba, Northwestern Ontario, and Northern Quebec facing potential cloud cover that might obscure the show.

Southern Saskatchewan and Northern Alberta may see patchy clouds but could have breaks offering decent aurora visibility. For Southern Ontario, Quebec, and most of Western Canada, skies are expected to remain clear.

Check out our free app, Instant Weather for a more in-depth cloud coverage forecast specific to your exact location.

Another potential issue will be the full moon leading to the possibility of the northern lights appearing more dim and harder to spot. However, if the storm is as strong as forecasted, there still should be some chance to capture the show despite the bright moon.

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Northern regions of Canada, especially Northern Quebec, the Prairies and British Columbia, are almost guaranteed to see the northern lights, except for areas in Southwestern BC near Vancouver where visibility is less certain.

Zooming into more southern regions, the likelihood of seeing auroras becomes more variable. Northeastern Ontario, including Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and North Bay, along with Western and Northern Quebec, have a strong chance of aurora sightings.

In Central Ontario, places like Muskoka, Algonquin Park, Bancroft, and the Ottawa Valley also have a moderate chance, as do areas around Montreal. However, the timing of the storm’s arrival remains a key factor—if it’s delayed and peaks closer to sunset, a G3 storm would likely provide an opportunity for these regions to witness the lights.

In Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and southern Quebec near the American border, the probability becomes more uncertain. There’s a low to slight chance of auroras being visible here, depending on whether the storm overperforms or peaks later in the night.

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It’s important to keep in mind that light pollution can drastically affect your ability to see the northern lights. Urban areas, in particular, can drown out the skies, so you’ll need to find a dark spot away from city lights for the best chance to see the show. A resource like DarkSiteFinder can help you locate areas with low light pollution for optimal aurora viewing.

Northern Lights Timing

Many are accustomed to the precise scheduling of weather events, from thunderstorms and winter weather to solar eclipses, where timing is crucial. It’s understandable, then, that there’s a desire for a similar pinpoint timing for the best viewing of the aurora. However, the reality of predicting the best time to view the northern lights is not so straightforward.

Here’s the deal: Unlike weather events driven by terrestrial conditions, the aurora is influenced by solar activity, which is far less predictable. We can estimate that the northern lights are best viewed from just after sunset to just before sunrise, provided the skies are dark and clear. Beyond that, precise timing for peak aurora activity is challenging to forecast with current technology.

GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)

Space weather forecasting doesn't yet allow us to predict exactly when solar energy will impact Earth. We know it's coming, but how and when it interacts with our planet's magnetic field can vary. Often, we only have a few hours' notice before the solar energy is detected by satellites.

Furthermore, the intensity of the northern lights can fluctuate significantly over short periods. You might have noticed this variance if you've observed the lights before—periods of dim activity suddenly bursting into vibrant colors. This is due to the variable concentration of solar particles interacting with our atmosphere.

While we can inform you a few hours ahead when conditions are likely to be good, predicting the exact peak of aurora activity is akin to forecasting the peak of a meteor shower; we know the best night but not the best hour.

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Rainy Start to the Week Across the Maritimes as Hurricane Ernesto Passes Offshore

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While tracking Hurricane Ernesto for the past few days, it was been clear that the storm would stay well offshore of Nova Scotia. This has been good news because it means that there would be very little impact from the storm across the Maritimes. The greatest threat will be moderate to heavy surf, along with riptides, that have already begun to arrive along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia this evening which will continue through the day Monday and into early Tuesday. Despite the storm staying over open water, the Maritimes can expect a wet start to the week.

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A band of thunderstorms will make its way northward from Ernesto and cross in Nova Scotia shortly after midnight tonight along the length of the province, but more concentrated to the eastern mainland and Cape Breton. This will be followed by a secondary band in the mid-morning, once again focused more along the eastern half of the province. These storms will bring localized downpours and could bring up to 30mm by the lunch hour. The threat of isolated onshore storms will continue throughout the afternoon and into overnight which could push into Southern New Brunswick and across PEI with some light rain.

Meanwhile, a secondary tropical air mass will bring rain to Northern New Brunswick beginning Monday afternoon, lasting until late in the day Tuesday. This rain will be quite heavy at times, especially in the Edmundston area, and could lead to up to 50mm falling. These two rounds of precipitation make for a very interesting looking rainfall map!

Forecast track for hurricane Ernesto from the Canadian Hurricane Centre - August 18th at 9Pm

Hurricane Ernesto's Track Through Atlantic Canada Becoming Clearer; Could Maintain Category 1 Strength Deep into Canadian Waters

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Forecast track for hurricane Ernesto from the Canadian Hurricane Centre - August 17th at 9Am

Hurricane Ernesto made landfall on Bermuda early this morning as a Category 1 Hurricane. The storm luckily weakened from a Category 2 in the few hours before landfall, but it still packed a punch with 135km/h winds. Now the storm will continue to churn northeastward into Atlantic Canada for the beginning of next week.

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The Canadian Hurricane Centre is now issuing their own forecast track and there has been very little change in their prediction with their 9am update compared to the maps from the past two days. They maintain that the centre of Ernesto will stay well offshore of Nova Scotia and pass south of the Avalon Peninsula. Major weather models have made a shift since yesterday morning and now there is agreement that the centre of the storm will stay off the coast of Newfoundland. This is certainly good news because this will keep the strongest winds from hitting land, but it will still be an impactful storm.

Now that we’re starting to see a clearer picture of Hurricane Ernesto’s path through Atlantic Canada, we can more accurately forecast the impacts of the storm, especially for the Maritimes. Pounding surf will hit the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia beginning late Sunday and continuing through Monday. Rip currents will also be a concern in these coastal areas. Light rain from the storm will spread across Nova Scotia and even into PEI and Southern New Brunswick, with rainfall totals at this point expected to be in the 5-30mm range across the region for Monday. Exact amounts and locations will become clearer by this time tomorrow. Since the storm will be passing so far offshore, winds will not be a concern in the Maritimes.

Newfoundland, particularly the Burin and Avalon Peninsulas, will get hit harder than the Maritimes since Ernesto will be passing much closer. Southwest-facing coastlines can expect to begin seeing the ocean swell from the storm beginning late Sunday with large waves and hazardous surf starting late Monday and continuing into Tuesday. These waves and the storm surge will likely result in coastal flooding along these southwest-facing shores. Since Ernesto is expected to pass close to the Avalon late Monday, the winds won’t be as strong on land as they will be closer to the centre of the storm. Nonetheless, wind gusts of up to 100km/h can be expected along the southern shores of the Avalon, especially from Saint Vincent’s to Cape Race, and weakening further inland. Rainfall will be heavy for a brief period of time late in the day Monday for Eastern Newfoundland, including into Bonavista. Light rain will spread across the rest of the Island ahead of the storm Monday afternoon. It is still a bit too early to predict exact totals, but at this point the Avalon could see 30-50mm of rain in a 6 hour period.

Model Forecast Tracks for Hurricane Ernesto, Courtesy of Tomer Burg.

While the track of Ernesto through Atlantic Canada has become clearer, the intensity at which it will travel through the region appears to have also become clearer. The Canadian Hurricane Centre predicts that Ernesto will maintain hurricane strength up to its final approach of Newfoundland, with winds of 120km/h, which is just above the threshold for a storm to be considered a hurricane. Then, just as it passes south of the Avalon, it will transition to a post-tropical storm.

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Previous forecasts from the CHC/NHC showed that Ernesto would weaken somewhere between being offshore of Nova Scotia and around the Avalon, with no indication of where this transition may take place. This has now become clearer now that the storm has passed over Bermuda. Ernesto will experience a decrease in shear, giving the storm a chance to recover from ingesting so much dry air and it will undergo a short period of restrengthening tomorrow before hitting the point in which sea surface temperatures drop below 26°C and it begins to lose fuel. The image below shows that wind speeds at the storm’s centre will increase between Hour 24 and Hour 48, indicating this window of restrengthening. As a result of this strengthening in the storm, it will then take a bit longer to weaken to a post-tropical storm and it will maintain its status as Category 1 Hurricane deeper into Canadian waters. We will continue to monitor the storm and we will have our own rain and wind forecasts coming later tomorrow.

Forecast Track and Intensity of Hurricane Ernesto with Sea Surface Temperatures, courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Hurricane Ernesto Still on Track to Impact Atlantic Canada; Could Pass Through Newfoundland

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Forecast track for hurricane Ernesto from the Canadian Hurricane Centre - August 16th at 6Am

Ernesto is continuing to barrel towards Bermuda, now as a Category 2 Hurricane, with wind speeds up to 160km/h. The centre of the storm is expected to pass near or over the island on Saturday while maintaining its strength at a Category 2.

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The Canadian Hurricane Centre and the National Hurricane Center have made very little change to their track forecast for Ernesto in the 6am update as it travels northeastward towards Atlantic Canada beyond Bermuda. There is still a large degree of uncertainty since we are still a few days out and this is reflected in the size of the cone on the forecast map.

Individual weather models, on the other hand, have begun to show a western shift. There still are a few models that are more in line with the NHC forecast that keeps Ernesto passing offshore of the Avalon. However, just as many are now suggesting that the storm could pass over the Peninsula instead and one outlier still has it tracking through Central Newfoundland. We may see a change in the official forecasts from the CHC and NHC that reflects this western shift in the models.

There is definitely more agreement in the path of Ernesto as it passes offshore of Nova Scotia on Monday. The amount of rain it brings to the Maritimes will be entirely dependent on just how far offshore it stays. Nova Scotia will most likely see rain, but if the storm passes closer to the province, we could see rain move into New Brunswick and PEI as well. Given its offshore track, strong winds likely won’t be much of an issue, but pounding surf is expected to begin for the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia ahead of the storm on Sunday and continuing until after its passing on Tuesday.

The exact impacts to Eastern Newfoundland will be entirely dependent on the path that Ernesto takes either around or through the province. The strongest winds will be found around the centre of the storm and at that point in the storm’s life, gusts are projected to be around 110km/h so hopefully it will stay offshore. Rainfall across the province will also vary, with higher amounts expected closer to the middle of the storm. These impacts will become clearer once there is more consensus in the track. The hazardous surf will hit south-facing shores of Newfoundland beginning late Sunday and large waves should impact the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas throughout the day Monday. The large waves, combined with storm surge. could result in coastal flooding so be sure to exercise caution in these areas.

Model Forecast Tracks for Hurricane Ernesto, Courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Ernesto strengthened into a Category 2 late yesterday and further strengthening stalled overnight, despite being in warm water, likely due to continued ingestion of dry air. It is expected to continue to strength through today, but that could be limited by an increase in wind shear, which works against hurricanes. At this point, Ernesto will top out at a Category 2.

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Hurricane Ernesto will begin to lose strength after it hits Bermuda and pushes northward into cooler waters and experiences increased shear. It will enter Canadian waters as a weak Category 1 Hurricane and it should rapidly weaken into a post-tropical storm as it approaches Newfoundland mostly due the much cooler sea surface temperatures, but also even more wind shear. Hurricanes need water temperatures of at least 26°C to survive and Ernesto will lose that as it tracks into Atlantic Canada. Nonetheless, winds at the centre of the storm are still expected to be in the 110-150km/h range as it moves through the region.

Forecast Track and Intensity of Hurricane Ernesto with Sea Surface Temperatures, courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Hurricane Ernesto Likely to Impact Atlantic Canada; Uncertainty Looms on Exact Track

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Forecast track for hurricane Ernesto from the Canadian Hurricane Centre - August 15th at 12pm

Hurricane Ernesto is currently a Category 1 Hurricane and is still moving northeastward towards Bermuda. While it is fairly certain that the island nation will take a direct hit from the storm, its track as it continues northward into Canadian waters is much more uncertain.

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In the 12pm update from the Canadian Hurricane Centre, in conjunction with the National Hurricane Center in the US, Ernesto is still expected to have some sort of impact to the Maritimes and Newfoundland, despite the uncertainty in the exact track.

Guidances from different individual weather models, as shown below, indicate potential paths that the centre of the storm may take over the next few days. In some cases, the storm may stay well offshore and only sideswipe Newfoundland with heavy rain and wind while missing the Maritimes completely. On the other hand, one model has the storm tracking straight though Central Newfoundland, which would not only greatly impact the island, but this track would also bring rain and wind further west into the Maritimes.

However, we are starting to see some agreement between some of these models that would see Ernesto stay well offshore of Nova Scotia, with only a bit of rain hitting the province, before passing just south of the Avalon Peninsula, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to Eastern Newfoundland and strong surge to coastal areas across Atlantic Canada. The swells are expected to arrive in the Maritimes beginning Saturday, with more dangerous surf starting Sunday, ahead of the storms arrival to the region early Monday.

Model Forecast Tracks for Hurricane Ernesto, Courtesy of Tomer Burg.

So what are we looking at strength wise? Ernesto is currently a Category 1 in 29°C waters. This sea surface temperature will certainly help the storm strengthen, however, dry air is being pulled into the centre of the storm which is limiting its organization. The warm waters and dry air, combined with some moderate vertical shear (which needs to be low in order for a hurricane to survive and strengthen), means that Ernesto will strengthen to a strong Category 2 Hurricane.

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As the storm continues to travel north-northeastward beyond Bermuda, it will encounter cooler waters and shear will increase, which will work to weaken it back down to a Category 1. As it moves into Canadian waters, the sea surface temperatures fall below 26°C. This is the magic number for hurricane development and growth so at this point, it will weaken even further. Ernesto expected to travel through the region starting as a low-end Category 1 and weakening to a post-tropical storm, with winds in the centre of the storm in the range of 110-150km/h.

Forecast Track and Intensity of Hurricane Ernesto with Sea Surface Temperatures, courtesy of Tomer Burg.

Post-Tropical Depression Debby Will Bring Up to 50mm to New Brunswick, Lesser Amounts to Nova Scotia and PEI Over the Weekend

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NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

After tracking the shifts in the potential path for Tropical Storm Debby over the past few days, the storm will finally make its way into the Maritimes beginning Friday morning with the outer bands of rain. Thankfully, the impacts of this storm will be limited, as opposed to some of the late season post tropical storms we’ve seen in the recent past, like Fiona two years ago.

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Rain will move into the region from the southwest beginning mid-morning Friday as light showers. Steady light rain can be expected across Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island throughout much of Friday and Saturday and into Sunday morning.

The precipitation, however, will intensify to heavy rain in Northern and Western New Brunswick starting Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday afternoon before starting to taper off. This area of heavier rain will coincide with the path of the center of the storm as it tracks through the region. The Canadian Hurricane Centre’s track forecast from 6pm Thursday is included below. Embedded thunderstorms are expected from the remnants of Debby and this will likely locally increase rainfall totals closer to 50mm along the western edge of the province.

Winds are expected to increase across the entire region in the early morning hours Saturday and lasting for approximately 18 hours before calming. Gusts are expected to top out in the 70-80km/h range, not nearly as strong as we’ve seen in past post-tropical storms.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre Track Forecast for Debby Issued on August 8, 2024 at 6pm ADT

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