Winter Roars Into Ontario This Week With Freezing Rain Threat; Snow Squalls Could Dump Up to 50cm of Snow

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While winter has gotten off to a slow start across Southern Ontario, with many areas only seeing their first snowfall within the past week or two, it seems that change is on the way. November is shaping up to go out like a lion, as Mother Nature makes up for lost time.

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A significant pattern shift is expected to bring the threat of freezing rain late Monday across Central and Eastern Ontario. This will be followed by multiple weaker systems across the Great Lakes region and colder air flooding into the province.

That colder air will set the stage for what could become our first major snow squall event later this week and into the weekend. In some typical snowbelt areas, snowfall could be measured in feet (30+ cm) by this time next week!

Let’s break down what is shaping up to be a very dynamic and active forecast over the next five to seven days, starting with the freezing rain threat.

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Freezing Rain Risk: Monday into Tuesday

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A system is expected to move into Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe beginning Monday afternoon. With temperatures forecasted to stay well above freezing in these areas, precipitation will fall as rain.

However, as the system moves northeast into Central and Eastern Ontario after midnight, it will encounter a stubborn layer of colder air near the surface. Temperatures hovering near or just below freezing may allow some of the rain to fall as freezing rain overnight into early Tuesday morning.

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There remains some uncertainty about how widespread this pocket of cold air will be. Higher-elevation areas of Central and Eastern Ontario, including Bancroft, Barry’s Bay, and Algonquin Park, are most likely to experience freezing rain. It’s also possible for freezing rain to extend westward to Muskoka and Parry Sound, and eastward into the Ottawa Valley, including the City of Ottawa.

For Bancroft, Barry’s Bay, and Algonquin Park, ice accretion totals could reach 2-4 mm by Tuesday morning, though any ice will quickly melt after sunrise as temperatures rise above freezing by late morning. In Muskoka and the Ottawa Valley, a thin layer of ice on untreated surfaces is possible, which could make for a slow Tuesday morning commute. There is a slight chance of school bus cancellations in affected areas.

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Northern Ontario: Heavy Snowfall Ahead

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Northern Ontario will experience heavy snow from this same system, as colder air dominates in the region. Light to moderate snowfall is expected to begin in Northwestern Ontario by early Monday afternoon, gradually spreading eastward into the evening and overnight.

Snow will continue across Northern Ontario throughout Tuesday, with the heaviest snowfall expected near the Quebec border in Northeastern Ontario. Snowfall will gradually ease later on Tuesday and into early Wednesday but could persist near James Bay in a zone extending from Hearst to Lansdowne House.

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Over three days, snowfall totals will generally range from 10 to 20 cm across Northern Ontario. Far Northern Ontario near James Bay could see totals exceeding 20 cm by Thursday, while lake-enhanced snowfall southeast of Lake Superior, including Sault Ste. Marie, could push totals closer to 30 cm.

Thunder Bay is expected to see slightly less snow, as the city may end up in a drier part of the system. Forecasts currently suggest snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm in this area.

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Southern Ontario: Cold Air and Lake Effect Snow

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As the system moves out of Southern Ontario late Tuesday, a surge of cold air will follow in its wake. This will briefly activate the lake effect snow machine around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay beginning Tuesday evening and lasting into Wednesday.

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At this time, temperatures are expected to hover near the freezing mark, which could limit significant accumulation. The most likely target zone for this initial burst of lake effect snow includes areas east of Georgian Bay, such as Parry Sound, Huntsville, and Bracebridge. These areas could see 10-15 cm, with localized amounts of up to 20 cm by the time snow bands taper off Wednesday evening.

For higher elevations southeast of Owen Sound, including Hanover, Markdale, Shelburne, and Orangeville, up to 5-10 cm of snow is possible, as cooler temperatures in these areas will allow snow to accumulate more easily. Surrounding regions, including parts of the Greater Toronto Area, may see just a few light flurries.

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End of the Week: A Snow Squall Event Looms

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Lake effect snow will temporarily pause as another system slides through the Great Lakes region. However, this system appears to stay largely south of the border, bringing only a few flurries or light showers to areas near Lake Erie and the Golden Horseshoe early Thursday.

As we approach the weekend, Southern Ontario will see its coldest air of the season so far, with overnight lows plunging to several degrees below freezing across much of the province.

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A dominant westerly to northwesterly wind is expected to develop Friday and persist into the weekend. This setup will create ideal conditions for intense snow squalls off Lake Huron, Lake Superior, and Georgian Bay starting Friday afternoon and lasting through the weekend.

These snow squalls could bring significant snowfall totals, blowing snow, and near-zero visibility to localized areas in the snowbelt. Travel could become difficult or even dangerous in the hardest-hit regions.

Based on the current forecasted wind direction, regions including Kincardine, Owen Sound, Hanover, Midland, Oro, Orillia, and Gravenhurst are likely to see the heaviest impacts. This also extends up into Northern Ontario around the Lake Superior shoreline with Sault Ste. Marie in the bullseye. Some locations within this zone could receive up to 50 cm of snow by the end of the weekend.

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Snow Squall Uncertainty

It’s important to note that snow squalls are highly localized events, and not everyone will experience intense snowfall totals. One area may receive significant snow accumulations, while locations just a few kilometres away might see only a dusting.

Confidence is high that some sort of snow squall event will occur, but exact locations will depend on the finer details of wind direction and temperatures.

CREDIT: Environment CANADA

Environment Canada has also mentioned the potential for significant snow squalls later this week:

The first significant lake effect snow of the season is likely beginning Friday. This has the potential to be a highly disruptive and prolonged event for areas near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay and eastern Lake Superior. While confidence is medium to high that lake effect snow and blowing snow will occur, confidence in exact locations to be affected as well as snowfall accumulations is low. As is normally the case in these situations, snowfall amounts will be highly variable. Some areas may see well in excess of 50 cm by the end of the weekend. - Environment Canada

Stay tuned for updated forecasts in the coming days as higher-resolution models provide more details. We’ll refine the snow squall forecast and pinpoint areas most at risk.

Second Storm This Week Will Dump Even More Snow Across Saskatchewan & Manitoba This Weekend

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We hope you’ve kept your shovels handy following the storm earlier this week because there is even more snow on its way for Saskatchewan and Manitoba this weekend.

Thankfully this storm will be less complex than the previous one and the situation in two particular areas will be different this time around. The western edge of Saskatchewan, where next to no snow fell during the previous storm, is now in the crosshairs with more than 20cm of snow expected. Meanwhile, those in Winnipeg and the Eastman Region, who received drenching rains within the warm sector of the earlier storm, will finally see some snow, but overall accumulations will be limited.

Since last night’s preliminary forecast, model data has trended slightly to the north. This means that areas along the boundaries from the previous forecast could see either an increase or decrease in projected snowfall totals.

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We’ve already seen a bit of light snow pushing its way into Southwest Saskatchewan from Alberta this afternoon and while this snowfall is associated with the expected storm, its a precursor band that will bring less than 5cm of snow to a small area that includes Maple Creek and Shaunavon.

The main event will begin Saturday morning, as the more organized band of snow pushes into Saskatchewan. It will start as light snow, but gradually intensify through the late morning and continuing overnight as the storm makes its way across the province. The heaviest snow is expected to fall mostly in Western Saskatchewan, leading to over 20cm of accumulation from Kindersley to Wynard by Sunday morning. At that point, there will only be some lingering light snow in Northern Saskatchewan that will continue into Monday morning.

The snow will remain steady as it crosses into Manitoba starting Saturday evening in the Westman Region and then the Parkland Region around midnight. The storm will begin to lose intensity by the time it moves into the Interlake Region on Sunday morning and as a result, there will be a decrease in snow accumulation down to 5-10cm, with only light snow falling for the remainder of the day. Since the storm will have a slight northeasterly trajectory as it crosses Manitoba, communities along the American border and into Winnipeg will see less than 5cm of snow fall.

The snow will begin to taper off Monday morning across Manitoba, with some scattered flurries continuing until late in the day, at which time the storm will exit the region.

One of the biggest challenges during the last storm was the blowing snow due to high winds. While the winds are not expected to be quite as intense this time around, gusts up to 50km/h could reduce visibility and result in some road closures, particularly through Southern Saskatchewan.

Winter Storm Could Dump Over 20cm of Snow in Southern Alberta This Weekend

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After missing out on the heavy snowfall that hit Saskatchewan and Manitoba earlier this week, Alberta now gets its turn, with a winter storm slated to hit this weekend. Much of Central and Southern Alberta can expect to see 10-20cm of fresh snow by Sunday afternoon, but a precursor blast of snow ahead of the main event means that the southeast could receive upwards of 30cm.

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Following some scattered flurries overnight throughout Southern Alberta, the first round of snow will move into the province late Friday morning from the southwest. This band will build northward along the Rockies and spread northeastward across Southern and Central Alberta throughout the afternoon and evening. The snow will be heavy at times in the south, leading to a quick accumulation of 5-10cm for areas south of Calgary.

Late Friday evening and overnight, as the snow continues spreading north into Grande Cache and areas north of Edmonton, the second round of snow will start making its way into Southern Alberta along the same track as the first. This more organized band will merge with the initial round of snow in the early morning hours of Saturday and will intensify starting in the Southern Rockies shortly before dawn. Snowfall rates are expected to exceed 2cm/hr, leading to rapid accumulation in the morning and early afternoon along a stretch from Pincher Creek to Oyen. It’s in this area that residents can expect to receive more than 20cm of snow by late Saturday.

To the north, the snow will spread into the Grande Prairie area in the early hours of Saturday when the storm becomes more organized. As the system gradually pushes eastwards throughout the day Saturday and into early Sunday, the snow across Central Alberta and parts of Northern Alberta is expected to be steady and light, resulting in widespread totals of 5-20cm. Most of the Rockies will be skipped over by the second round of snow, leading to a limited amount of snow accumulation overall from this storm.

Another Snowstorm Could Dump Up to 30cm of Snow on Saskatchewan & Manitoba This Weekend

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As residents across parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba begin digging out from the first significant snowfall of the season, another winter storm is already on the horizon.

Snowfall is expected to start in western Saskatchewan as early as Saturday morning, with the worst conditions anticipated over the weekend. By the time the system wraps up on Monday, widespread snow accumulation of 15 to 30 cm is likely.

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Although current model data shows good consistency regarding the storm's intensity and track, it’s still over 24 hours away, and some slight adjustments are possible. Be sure to check back on Friday for our updated forecast, which will include more precise snowfall accumulation predictions.

A teaser of what’s to come will arrive on Friday as light snow begins moving into southwestern Saskatchewan during the afternoon. This snowfall isn’t expected to spread far across the province and should mostly fizzle out by Saturday morning. Areas like Maple Creek and Shaunavon could see a few centimeters of accumulation, possibly up to 5 cm.

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However, the break in snowfall will be brief, as another wave of precipitation sweeps into the province from Alberta. This system will begin as light snow late Saturday morning, gradually increasing in intensity throughout the afternoon.

By the evening, snowfall will have reached Saskatoon and Regina, with moderate to heavy snow spreading across much of Saskatchewan. The worst conditions are expected overnight into Sunday morning, when snowfall rates will peak.

Blowing snow could also pose a concern, with wind gusts of 40-50 km/h reducing visibility on roads. While conditions aren’t expected to meet blizzard criteria, drivers should anticipate poor travel conditions and potential highway closures beginning Saturday evening, particularly in western Saskatchewan. Road conditions will likely remain hazardous until Sunday afternoon, starting with improvements in the western parts of the province.

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By the early hours of Sunday, snowfall will have reached western Manitoba, with its intensity ramping up through the morning. Current forecasts suggest the heaviest snowfall will target central portions of western Manitoba, including the Interlake region.

Brandon is expected to see snow begin late Sunday morning, with light to moderate snowfall continuing throughout the day. Winnipeg will likely see snow begin in the early afternoon, continuing into the evening and overnight hours.

Snowfall will gradually taper off by Monday morning, with lingering flurries in central parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

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The storm is expected to lose some intensity as it progresses eastward across the Prairies. This means the highest snowfall totals will likely occur in western and central Saskatchewan. Snowfall amounts of 20-30 cm are expected in these areas by Monday morning, with localized pockets exceeding 30 cm. Locations such as Swift Current, Moose Jaw, Regina, and Kindersley are within this high-impact zone.

For the rest of Saskatchewan, snowfall amounts are forecast to range between 5 and 15 cm, with some areas potentially nearing 20 cm depending on the storm’s exact track. We’ve opted for a general forecast of "up to 20 cm" for now but expect refinements in our final update.

In Manitoba, western regions—including areas already hit hard by the earlier storm this week—can expect 10-15 cm, with isolated totals approaching 20 cm. Areas east of Brandon, including Winnipeg, are forecast to see lighter accumulations of 5-10 cm. Snowfall totals will taper off further north, with minimal impacts expected in northern Manitoba.

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ESTIMATED WIND CHILL ON SATURDAY MORNING - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

One significant difference between this storm and the one earlier this week is the temperature. This event will be accompanied by much colder air, meaning it will produce all snow, with no risk of mixed precipitation. Additionally, colder temperatures will result in higher snowfall ratios, so it won’t take much liquid precipitation to produce substantial snowfall amounts.

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This colder air also brings added risks for anyone traveling during the storm. Extremely cold wind chills are expected to develop as early as Saturday, with some areas feeling like the -20s across Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. If you get stranded on the roads, staying warm may be difficult, so it’s highly recommended to avoid travel during this storm.

Season’s First Snowfall Possible for Wide Swath of Southern Ontario Starting Late Wednesday

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Over the past week, calm conditions have dominated the weather story across Southern Ontario. This pattern has also brought a return to more seasonal temperatures typical for this time of year, a noticeable shift from the unseasonably warm weather that lingered into early November.

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One notable absence so far this season is snow—a staple of November in Southern Ontario. While some regions, especially higher elevations in Central Ontario, the Ottawa Valley, and the Dundalk Highlands, experienced their first flurries as early as September and October, much of Southern Ontario has yet to see its first snowfall.

That, however, could soon change with the arrival of multiple weather systems in the coming days, bringing colder air and the potential for wet flurries as early as Wednesday evening and into Thursday and Friday.

The good news for those not yet ready to embrace winter is that significant accumulation isn’t expected with this initial blast of wintry weather. Temperatures are forecast to hover just above freezing, which will likely limit accumulation as any snow melts upon contact with the wet and relatively warm ground left behind by earlier rainfall.

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In addition to the season’s first flurries, a slow-moving system will stall over the Great Lakes region, pulling in moisture from another system over New England. This setup will lead to ample precipitation, with heavy rain expected to persist into the start of the weekend. Eastern Ontario is poised to bear the brunt of this rainfall, with totals ranging from 25 to 50 mm between Wednesday and Saturday.

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The rain is expected to begin on Wednesday afternoon, with the initial band of heavy rain arriving in Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas near the Lake Erie shoreline by dinnertime.

This line of precipitation may also bring embedded, non-severe thunderstorms and wind gusts of 70-80 km/h. While most gusts are expected to remain below the severe threshold, isolated gusts near 90 km/h are possible, particularly over the Niagara region during the early evening hours.

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As this line of rain races across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe, colder air will begin rushing in from the west. However, there is some disagreement among models regarding how quickly temperatures will drop and how rapidly the precipitation will move. Some projections suggest a sharp cooldown, with temperatures in Southwestern Ontario nearing freezing by Wednesday evening.

If this happens, rain could transition to wet snow in areas such as Sarnia, London, Goderich, Kitchener, Guelph, and Orangeville. However, with earlier rainfall and temperatures still above freezing, any snow is likely to melt on contact. Elevated areas northwest of the GTA, particularly the Dundalk Highlands, may see light accumulation of up to 2-4 cm overnight into Thursday morning.

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By Thursday morning, most of the moisture will shift into Central and Eastern Ontario, with the centre of the low-pressure system stalled over Lake Huron. Meanwhile, a secondary system over New England will provide additional moisture, enhancing precipitation over Eastern Ontario throughout the day.

Temperatures in parts of Eastern Ontario, particularly southwest of Ottawa and in higher elevations, will hover near the freezing mark, creating a chance for wet flurries. Closer to the international border extending into the Ottawa region, heavy rain will likely continue.

Precipitation is expected to persist overnight Thursday and linger into Friday, with the heaviest rain focused on Eastern Ontario. In Central and Southwestern Ontario, lingering showers are possible Friday morning and afternoon, though they won’t be as intense as in the east.

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For rainfall totals, Eastern Ontario, including Kingston and Ottawa, can expect 25 to 50 mm by Saturday. The rest of Southern Ontario will likely see 10 to 25 mm, though isolated pockets could receive closer to 30-40 mm during thunderstorm activity.

Higher elevations in Eastern Ontario, particularly near Bancroft, may see persistent snow showers that could result in minor accumulation of up to 2-5 cm by Friday morning. However, with temperatures so close to freezing, it’s uncertain how much snow will stick.

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Looking ahead to the weekend, there’s good news for those not ready for snow. Earlier model predictions suggested a significant cooldown that could trigger lake-effect snow. However, the latest data indicates the cooldown won’t be as intense as initially thought.

While some lake-effect showers are still possible along the Lake Huron shoreline and southeast of Georgian Bay on Saturday, it likely won’t be cold enough for those showers to fall as snow.

First Major Winter Storm of the Year Will Bring Up to 50cm of Snow and Blizzard Conditions to Saskatchewan & Manitoba

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The first major winter storm of the season for the Prairies is here, with rain already falling in Southeast Saskatchewan along with pockets of freezing rain and snow. In last night’s preliminary forecast, we discussed the complexity of this multi-day storm and now that the storm is on our doorstep, there is more confidence in the forecast. Some areas of Central and Northern Saskatchewan and into Northern Manitoba could now see upwards of 50cm by the end of Wednesday, with blizzard conditions possible in the south.

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As mentioned above, the first round of precipitation from this event has already made its way into Saskatchewan this afternoon. Rain is falling in Southeast and East Central Saskatchewan and there is snow further north, in the Hudson Bay area. The rain will transition over to snow as we progress through the evening with the heaviest snow expected to fall east of Prince Albert, from Melfort through to Cumberland House, starting later in the evening and continuing straight through to Wednesday morning.

As this band of precipitation pushes eastward into Manitoba overnight and into the early morning hours of Tuesday, it will encounter a strong low pressure system coming north out of the States. This incoming system from the south will bring steady rain, that is heavy at times, to Southern Manitoba throughout Tuesday morning. When the two systems meet, they will merge to form one large storm and by late Tuesday morning, cooler air will be pulled towards the centre of the storm from Northern Saskatchewan, leading to a transition of rain to snow with a brief period of freezing rain in the Westman Region.

By Tuesday afternoon, the snow will start to ease in Saskatchewan, but snowfall rates in Manitoba, on the other hand, will increase, leading to quick accumulations of snow. It’s at this point that the winds will start to pick up. Sustained winds of 40km/h and gusts exceeding 70km/h, combined with the heavy snowfall, will likely lead to blowing snow and blizzard conditions overnight Tuesday through to Wednesday morning.

This storm will finally diminish Wednesday afternoon, leading to a gradual tapering off of snow throughout the region.

‘Blizzard Conditions Possible’; Winter Storm Could Dump Up to 30cm of Snow on Parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Early This Week

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Mother Nature isn’t holding back as a powerful winter storm sets its sights on Saskatchewan and Manitoba, starting late Monday. This storm will bring heavy snow, strong winds, and even blizzard conditions, marking the region’s first significant taste of winter. Some areas in Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba could see up to 30 cm of snow, with localized amounts possibly exceeding that by the end of Wednesday.

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Sustained winds of 40 km/h, with gusts reaching 70–80 km/h, are expected to create blowing snow, particularly overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Blizzard conditions could develop in some areas. Prepare for hazardous travel, as highway closures are likely in the hardest-hit regions.

Before diving into the details, it’s important to note that this is a complex storm, with snowfall accumulating over multiple days. This preliminary forecast provides a general idea of the storm’s potential impacts, but adjustments are likely as the system approaches. Stay tuned for updates, including a more detailed snowfall accumulation map in the coming days.

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PRECIPITATION TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The storm will begin in Saskatchewan late Monday afternoon or evening, as precipitation moves into the province from the south. The first round of snowfall will primarily impact Central and Northeastern Saskatchewan, with areas like Prince Albert and Nipawin expected to see the heaviest snow through late Monday.

Overnight Monday into early Tuesday, precipitation in Saskatchewan will merge with an approaching system from the south, targeting Manitoba. The exact track of this system remains uncertain, but it’s expected to bring significant precipitation to Manitoba throughout Tuesday.

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Initially, much of Eastern Manitoba, including Winnipeg, will see heavy rain. By Tuesday late morning or early afternoon, colder air will begin to wrap into the region, creating a risk of freezing rain in parts of Southwestern Manitoba, including Brandon and Portage la Prairie.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Eastern Saskatchewan, where Arctic air is firmly in place. There is some uncertainty about how far west the precipitation will extend into Saskatchewan, but the heaviest snow is expected closer to the Manitoba border.

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By Tuesday late afternoon, most of Manitoba will transition from rain to snow as colder air overtakes above-freezing temperatures. Heavy snow will continue through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.

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SUSTAINED WIND SPEED - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Strong winds, with sustained speeds near 40 km/h and gusts of up to 70 km/h, will develop late Tuesday and persist into much of Wednesday. Combined with heavy snowfall, this will likely lead to blowing snow and blizzard-like conditions, particularly in parts of Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba.

As the system exits the region later on Wednesday, the snowfall will gradually taper off. However, this storm will usher in the coldest air of the season so far, with temperatures dropping to -10°C to -20°C by the end of the week.

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Snowfall Accumulation

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Monday

By the end of Monday, snowfall totals are expected to reach 5–10 cm in parts of Central and Eastern Saskatchewan, including Prince Albert, Melfort, and Tisdale. Surrounding areas, such as Saskatoon and Wynyard, could see up to 5 cm of snow.

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Tuesday and Wednesday

From Tuesday through Wednesday, snowfall totals are expected to range between 15 and 30 cm across much of the affected region. The heaviest accumulations are anticipated near the Saskatchewan–Manitoba border, where localized totals could exceed 30 cm. Elevation will play a significant role, especially in Western Manitoba, where areas of higher terrain could see as much as 30–40 cm.

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In Central and Eastern Manitoba, snowfall amounts are harder to pinpoint, as the transition from rain to snow will dictate final totals. Portage la Prairie could see 15–25 cm, while Winnipeg may only receive 10–15 cm, depending on how long the rain lingers before changing to snow.

A similar uncertainty exists in Saskatchewan, but for a different reason—how far west the moisture will penetrate into the province. Some forecasts keep the heaviest precipitation closer to the Manitoba border, while others push it further west. Regina sits on the edge of the higher accumulation zone, with current estimates suggesting 5–15 cm for the city and surrounding areas.

Up to 10cm of Snow Could Cause Traffic Headaches For Calgary Area to Start the Week

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The week will start off messy for those in Calgary and the surrounding area with up to 10cm of snow expected to fall on Monday. While not a large amount of snow, its morning arrival will likely make the commute longer than usual. Those in this area will definitely want to give themselves extra time to reach their destination in the morning.

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The snow will cross the Rockies into the province after midnight tonight, spreading eastward into Calgary by 2AM and then into Wheatland County shortly thereafter. This area can expect the snow to be heavy at times over the course of roughly 8-10 hours, leading to upwards of 10cm of accumulation by the afternoon. Light snow is expected to cross towards the Saskatchewan border by mid-morning, with the system losing organization in the afternoon. This will result in scattered flurries possible throughout Southern Alberta continuing into the overnight and early morning hours of Tuesday, leading to snowfall accumulations of less than 5cm.

Snowy Weekend Ahead for Parts of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba With Up to 20cm Possible

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It was only a matter of time before the first significant snowfall hit Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and a system moving northward from the States will deliver that.

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The precipitation will cross the border shortly after midnight tonight as it travels northeastward into Southeast Saskatchewan. This precipitation will be split between snow to the west and a pocket of rain to the east in the extreme Southeast corner of Saskatchewan as a result of a difference in temperature; below freezing in the west and positive single digits to the east. The temperature gradient will persist throughout the event and will result in areas of Western Manitoba seeing a brief period of light rain before temperatures drop and there is a transition to snow as the precipitation spreads.

The rain will be short-lived in Saskatchewan as the system pushes further into the region and cross into Manitoba by the mid-morning. At this point, the snowfall over Southeast Saskatchewan is expected to intensify, leading to widespread 5-10cm of accumulation in that area and into the Parkland region of Manitoba. A smaller area, that includes Carlyle, Estevan, Moosomin, Weyburn, and Dauphin can expect upwards of 20cm of snow as a result of this intensification through the afternoon.

By the mid-afternoon, the area of rain will start to expand eastward across the rest of Southern Manitoba, which will limit the amount of snowfall in Portage la Prairie and the Interlake Region. As the system continues to move across the region through the evening and overnight, a widespread 5-10mm of rain will fall across Southeast Manitoba.

The snow is expected to finish in Saskatchewan by midnight Saturday and the mix of precipitation will continue throughout Southern Manitoba until early Sunday afternoon. With the transition from rain to snow in some areas and a quick blast of up to 20cm of snow in others, road conditions will likely be poor so take extra care when travelling, particularly on Saturday.

Retrograding Storm Will Bring a Freezing Rain Threat To New Brunswick Friday

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It’s been an extended wet stretch through the Maritimes lately and that pattern is set to continue over the next couple of days. A low pressure system that has been bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Newfoundland has begun to retrograde and travel westward towards the Maritimes, where it is expected to bring even more rain to the already soggy region starting later tonight.

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Most of the Maritimes can expect steady rain, that could be heavy at times, throughout the day Friday and into Saturday, with a widespread 5-30mm falling across the region and up to 50mm possible in the Cape Breton Highlands.

The leading edge of this storm, however, will encounter cool air over land in New Brunswick, with temperatures hovering around 0°C or just below, resulting in freezing rain falling for up to several hours. The freezing rain will begin in the early morning hours and gradually spread westward throughout the morning. As temperatures climb throughout the day, the freezing rain will transition to rain, but surfaces will still be quite slick with a thin layer of ice.

Up to 2mm of ice accretion can be expected across most of the province and closer to 4mm could be seen in the northwest where the cooler air will persist, leading to 4-6 hours of freezing rain. Areas along the eastern coast look like they will be spared from the freezing rain since temperatures are expected to stay a few degrees above freezing overnight. Make sure to take extra caution when travelling along icy roads and sidewalks tomorrow morning.

"The Legend Lives On" With the 49th Anniversary of the Sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald

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Photo of the Edmund Fitzgerald taken in 1975, courtesy of the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum.

Today we remember the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald and the loss of her 29 crew members in 1975. Many Canadians and Americans are familiar with this now infamous event thanks to a very popular song by Gordon Lightfoot from 1976, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. The ship sank 17 miles north-northwest of Whitefish Point, just outside of Whitefish Bay, an area that is sadly full of shipwrecks. To this day, there has been no official cause behind the wreck, but the weather was very likely a factor.

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The tracks of the Edmund Fitzgerald and the nearby Arthur M. Anderson, Courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Lake Superior is known for its intense November storms, known as gales or witches, and one such storm moved through the region on November 9th and 10th of 1975, when the Edmund Fitzgerald sank.

The Edmund Fitzgerald departed from Superior, Wisconsin at about 2:30pm on November 9th and was quickly joined by the Arthur M. Anderson, which had departed out of Two Harbors, Minnesota. The Captains of the two ships were aware of an incoming storm and opted to take the safer northern route across Lake Superior to their destinations. The Edmund Fitzgerald took the lead and the Arthur M. Anderson followed at a distance of 10 to 15 miles.

The National Weather Service issued a gale warning at 7pm on November 9th, which was then upgraded to a storm warning in the early morning hours of November 10th. By the early afternoon, winds were gusting at 50 knots (93 km/h) and waves were 3.5 to 5 metres (12 to 16 feet) tall, but these were conditions that the Captains could handle.

The conditions continued to deteriorate throughout the afternoon and at 3:30pm, Captain McSorley of the Edmund Fitzgerald radioed the Arthur M. Anderson to report minor damage to the ship along with a list (a tilt). He asked the other ship to stay close until they got to Whitefish Bay, at the eastern end of Lake Superior, and he would slow down so they could follow closer. Captain Cooper of the Arthur M. Anderson agreed and the two ships continued on their journey.

Reports from the Arthur M. Anderson give us the best insight to the conditions the two ships faced heading into the evening. At approximately 5:20pm, Captain Cooper reported sustained winds of 58 knots (107 km/h) and gusts of 70 knots (130 km/h) along with waves of 5.5 to 7.5 metres (18 to 25 feet). Then, at about 6:55pm, the crew felt a “bump” and the ship lurched due to a gigantic wave crashing into the ship from behind, forcing the bow under water. Just as the ship recovered, a second wave hit. Captain Cooper later said that he watched those two waves head towards the Edmund Fitzgerald ahead of them and he believed that those two waves sank her.

The Arthur M. Anderson made its final contact with the Edmund Fitzgerald at 7:10pm to confirm their position. They were having trouble tracking the lead ship because the waves were so high that they were interfering with radar. The ship kept disappearing and reappearing on radar, but at 7:15pm, it disappeared for the last time. The Arthur M. Anderson tried to contact the Edmund Fitzgerald once again at 7:22pm, but there was no answer. The Edmund Fitzgerald was not seen again until May 20th, 1976, 163 metres (535 feet) below the surface of the lake.

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Modelled wave heights and directions on lake superior at 7pm, November 10th, 1975. The location of the Edmund Fitzgerald wreck is marked by the red plus, Courtesy of the National Weather Service.

In 2006, a study re-examined the November 1975 storm using modern computer modelling in order to determine wind strength and wave heights at the time of the sinking. According to these models, it’s likely that the waves were at least 7.5 metres (25 feet) tall driven by sustained winds over 45 knots (83 km/h). Unfortunately, the worst conditions from this storm occurred exactly when and where the Edmund Fitzgerald sank.

Three months after the discovery of the doomed ship, Gordon Lightfoot released his hit song, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, which has forever memorialized the ship into the hearts and minds of Canadians and Americans alike. The anniversary of the sinking is still honoured every year at the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum at Whitefish Point. In the ceremony, the recovered bell of the Edmund Fitzgerald is rung 29 times, for each crew member lost, and a 30th time for all others who have been lost to the Great Lakes.

Further Reading:

Hultquist, T.R., Dutter, M.R. and Schwab, D.J. (2006). Reexamination of the 9–10 November 1975 “Edmund Fitzgerald” Storm Using Today's Technology. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(5), 607-622. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-5-607

https://www.shipwreckmuseum.com/edmund-fitzgerald/

https://www.shipwreckmuseum.com/the-fateful-journey/

https://www.ssedmundfitzgerald.org/storm-and-voyage

https://www.weather.gov/mqt/fitz_fitz

A Brief Blast of Winter Will Blow Through Central Alberta to Finish the Week

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It was a snowy start to the week in Alberta and it looks like the same can be said for the end of the week as well. This time, however, the snowfall will be shorter-lived and not as widespread. Once again, temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark beyond the Rockies will result in precipitation falling as wet snow or a rain and snow mixture as the system tracks eastward across the province.

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Steady light rain is slated to begin in the Grande Cache area and the northern edge of the Rockies Friday morning. The rain will be mixed with snow in the mountains, leading to a bit of accumulation. By the evening, the rain will start to transition to wet snow which will begin to spread southeast into Jasper and along the Icefields Parkway. The snow will stall over this region for roughly 24 hours, leading to over 10cm of snow falling by Sunday morning.

On Saturday morning, a patch of precipitation will break away with a weak low-pressure center and push eastward across the width of the province over the course of the day. Given the single-digit highs expected across Central Alberta on Saturday and how quickly the system will move through the region, this light precipitation will likely fall as a mix of rain and snow and snowfall totals are forecasted to be less than 2cm.

After crossing into Saskatchewan, this patch of precipitation will lose a bit of its eastward momentum as the system interacts with an even stronger low coming up from the States that has been bringing historic snowfall to parts of New Mexico. As the system stalls, the snow will persist overnight Saturday and into mid-morning Sunday over an area just west of the Saskatchewan border, from Cold Lake to Lloydminster, bringing snowfall totals closer to 5cm.

It looks like snow is once again in the forecast to start next week so keep your shovels ready!

What's in a Name? Choosing the Right Tires to Drive you Through Canadian Winters

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Tread patterns of summer, all season and winter tires. Image courtesy of discount tire.

Now that it’s the first week of November, many Canadians are starting to think about putting winter tires on their vehicles. There have been pockets of unseasonable warmth across the country in October and the start of November, the inevitable chill of winter is in the air, and many have already seen snow fall.

While winter tires are recommended throughout the country, they are mandatory in Quebec from December 1st to March 15th, and from October 1st to April 30th on certain British Columbia highways. Additionally, studded tires are allowed almost nationwide, with the exception of residents of Southern Ontario.

Insurance companies across the country offer discounts for installing winter tires as an incentive to encourage drivers to reduce the risk of accidents. So what makes winter tires that much better in the cold and snow than summer tires and where do all season and all weather tires fit into the mix?

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With the right tools, it can be pretty easy to change your own tires!

Summer Tires

Summer tires are designed to handle both wet and dry road conditions with their wide tread and soft rubber. These tires also usually have deeper grooves that improve traction on wet roads and reduce hydroplaning, making them ideal for the wet spring and summer months.

Winter Tires

Like their name suggests, winter tires have been designed for winter roads. They are made with rubber that stays flexible at temperatures below 7°C (45°F), the magic number at which other tires become stiff and lose traction, greatly reducing their performance. Furthermore, winter tires have different tread patterns that are meant to divert water and slush to the sides, as well as little slits called sipes that increase the overall grip of the tires and helping them maintain contact with icy road surfaces. Over the past several years, tire manufacturers have started to include additional small particles, like crushed glass or walnut shells, that act as little studs on the surface of the tire for extra grip.

Performance of All Season Tires vs Winter Tires with decreasing temperatures. Image courtesy of Discount Tire.

All Season & All Weather Tires

Some people argue that winter tires aren’t necessary if they have all season tires on their vehicle. Unfortunately, this is a slight misnomer because while these tires can handle a bit of cold and snow, they fail to handle heavier snowfalls that are common in Canadian winters. All season tires, unfortunately, sacrifice traction in wet conditions that would be found in summer tires and some of the flexibility and grip seen with winter tires in order for the tread to last longer. Realistically, these should be called 3 season tires as opposed to all season. So while they’re not the best option for winter driving in Canada, all season tires are definitely a better choice than regular summer tires.

All weather tires, not to be confused with all season tires, are a true year-round tire designed to handle Canadian winters. Unlike all season tires, these tires remain soft and flexible well below 7°C. The tread pattern on all weather tires is a combination of all season and winter tires, making them better suited for driving through heavier snow than all season tires. While they still don’t match the performance of a true winter tire, all weather tires are the best option for those who don’t want the hassle of swapping out their tires twice per year or simply do not have the space to store an extra set. Their versatility truly makes all weather tires a middle of the road tire (pun intended) for Canadian drivers.

The three-peak mountain snowflake symbol found on winter and all weather tires. Image courtesy of Canadian tire.

When looking for tires to get you through the winter, it is recommended to chose either a proper winter tire or an all weather tire, so long as it has the three-peak mountain and snowflake symbol on the sidewall. This is an industry standard symbol which indicates that the tire meets strict regulations for winter performance; becoming mandatory on all winter tires beginning in 2018, transitioning away from just using the M+S (Mud and Snow) designation.

Further Reading

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/how-to/automotive/how-to-choose-winter-tires.html

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-laws-in-canada/

https://www.continental-tires.com/ca/en/tire-knowledge/winter-tire-markings/

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/tires-below-45

https://www.discounttire.com/learn/winter-summer-allseason

Note: The author formerly received payments from “Big Tire” however, this article was not funded.

Update: Wintry Mix Continues, Pocket of Sub-Freezing Temperatures to Increase Snowfall Totals Tuesday

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It’s been a messy start to the week across parts of Alberta and into Southern Saskatchewan, with a low pressure system bringing mixed precipitation to the region today. This storm has been progressing as expected so far, but the latest data from weather models has resulted in some slight revisions to our forecast for Tuesday.

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Throughout the day Monday, we’ve seen temperatures above freezing across most of Southern and Central Alberta, resulting in precipitation falling as a rain-snow mix, and limiting overall snowfall accumulations. The exception to this has been in the Grande Cache area, where the temperatures have remained below 0°C and the precipitation has fallen as snow.

The single digit temperatures will continue overnight across most of Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, but with being only being a degree or two above, or even at, freezing, we expect there to be a bit more snow accumulating beginning in the early morning hours Tuesday. This has been reflected by an increase in the forecasted snowfall for Taber, Brooks and north towards Strathmore and Drumheller.

As the temperatures begin to climb after sunrise, we will see the transition back to a rain-snow mix across the region. However, there is a small pocket where sub-zero temperatures will persist throughout the day, particularly in Medicine Hat, Maple Creek and the surrounding area. Steady snowfall will increase accumulations amounts to 5-10cm with locally higher amounts of up to 15cm possible in this area by the end of the day.

It is also expected that the precipitation from this system will push further eastward into Saskatchewan Tuesday afternoon and evening. By the late afternoon Tuesday, Arctic air will flood into the Prairies so the remaining light precipitation in Southern Saskatchewan at that point will fall as snow. As a result, we have extended the area covered by the 2-5cm range to include Outlook, Moose Jaw, and Assiniboia. Meanwhile, Saskatoon, Watrous, Fort Qu’Appelle, Estevan, and areas in between can now expect trace amounts (less than 2cm) of snow. The snow will diminish overnight, but scattered light flurries are possible in Southeast Saskatchewan Wednesday morning.

Temperatures to Soar Above 20°C Across Southern Ontario on Tuesday With Gusty Winds

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As we step into the first days of November, the temperatures outside might have you double-checking the calendar, as the unusually warm trend of this fall continues. This lingering seasonal tug-of-war between cold and warm air has led to temperature swings from near-freezing to over 20°C in the past few weeks.

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Despite the calendar saying November, it’ll feel more like early fall on Tuesday as temperatures rise to around 20°C across much of Southern Ontario. Accompanying this brief warm-up will be strong wind gusts, reaching 70-80 km/h in some areas.

A warm front moving across Southern Ontario is bringing in this surge of mild air, making its presence felt overnight into Tuesday. Already, spots around Lake Erie in southwestern Ontario are feeling this effect, with temperatures climbing near the 20°C mark by Monday evening.

In contrast, parts of Central Ontario and the Ottawa Valley have remained in the single digits, with areas near Ottawa hovering close to freezing. But don’t worry; that’s about to change as warmer air spreads in!

Overnight, temperatures will gradually rise, with most of Southern Ontario waking up to mild conditions in the mid to upper teens. In Central and Eastern Ontario, expect to start the day with temperatures in the lower teens.

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Throughout Tuesday, the warm-up will continue, with daytime highs near 20°C or slightly higher in some areas. The latest data suggests the warmest air will be centred along the Golden Horseshoe and deep southwestern Ontario, including cities like Windsor and Chatham, where temperatures could reach 21-24°C. Some locations may even approach record highs, though with records around 23-25°C in many spots, breaking them might be a tall order.

The rest of Southern Ontario, except for the Bruce Peninsula and northern parts of Central Ontario, will enjoy temperatures around 18-21°C. Northern regions, including Tobermory, Parry Sound, Huntsville, and Algonquin Park, will see slightly cooler temperatures around 15-18°C. Meanwhile, Northeastern Ontario will experience mild conditions, with highs in the low to mid-teens.

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TEMPERATURES 10-14°C ABOVE SEASONAL- MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

If 20°C temperatures in November seem strange, you're right! Daytime highs for this time of year are typically in the upper single digits or low teens, so we’re looking at temperatures around 10-14°C above average across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.

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Winds will also be a key feature on Tuesday, with gusts approaching 70 km/h across much of Southern Ontario by the morning. These winds should weaken somewhat later in the day but are expected to pick up again overnight into early Wednesday.

A few areas—particularly around Lake Erie, Niagara, higher elevations east of Lake Huron, and northeast of Georgian Bay—could see stronger gusts up to 80 km/h, although this will be highly localized. Most places should expect gusts around 70 km/h, with winds easing off by late Wednesday morning.

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Northeastern Ontario will see heavy rain beginning early Tuesday morning and lasting through the day and night, with rainfall totals reaching 30-50 mm by Wednesday afternoon in some spots.

Southwestern Ontario will also see moderate to heavy rain starting early Wednesday morning, which will then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario by late morning. However, some models indicate that the rain might weaken before reaching Eastern Ontario, resulting in only a few millimeters. Southwestern and Central Ontario could see rainfall amounts of 5-15 mm.

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Wednesday will bring a dramatic change as a cold front sweeps across Southern Ontario, leading to a significant temperature drop by the day’s end. By Wednesday evening, temperatures across much of Southern Ontario will fall sharply into the low to mid-single digits, giving us a reminder that winter is just around the corner.

Messy Wintry Mix to Impact Alberta & Saskatchewan for the First Week of November

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The first week of November is going to have an active and messy start across Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. The arrival of a low pressure system will bring widespread precipitation Monday and Tuesday, but the dominant type of precipitation that falls will vary throughout the region.

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The low pressure centre will cross into Alberta Monday morning in the Grande Cache area, bringing steady light snow to the area. As the low gradually travels southeastward across the province throughout the day and overnight, the precipitation will follow and spread across much of Central and Southern Alberta and continue for most of the day Tuesday. The low will move into Saskatchewan by early Tuesday morning, bringing precipitation to the southwest region of the province throughout the morning and into the late evening before dissipating.

The exact snowfall accumulation across Alberta and Saskatchewan from this system has been tough to forecast, with temperatures in the single digits for a large part of the region, meaning that the precipitation will fall as a mixture of rain and snow. This, combined with still mild ground temperature, should greatly reduce overall snow accumulations. As a result, we’ve gone with a more conservative snowfall forecast. The areas with the greatest snowfall potential, and the least mixing, will be found to the west of the low pressure system, behind its associated cold front and in the area with the coolest air, namely in the Grande Cache area and through the Rockies.

Spooky Skies Ahead! Southern Ontario Could See Warmest Halloween on Record; Up to 10-15cm of Snow Could Haunt Northern Ontario

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Excitement is brewing as Halloween night approaches, and the streets are set to fill with little ghosts, goblins, and creatures of the night. However, it seems Mother Nature may have skipped the “or” in Trick-or-Treat this year. While Southern Ontario is in for an unusually warm treat, there’s also a wintry “trick” in the forecast, as the first messy winter system of the season stirs up across the northern portion of the province.

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Before we dive into the chilly details, let’s savor the treat: a Halloween night warmer than most! Unlike Halloweens past, where bone-chilling temperatures hovered near or below freezing, this year brings weather that feels more like late summer or early fall. Temperatures across Southern Ontario will keep that warm spell lingering, with some areas possibly experiencing record-breaking highs for Halloween.

In years past, Canadian trick-or-treaters have bundled up with extra layers under their costumes to ward off the cold. This Halloween, they may find themselves shedding layers, with temperatures expected to reach the upper teens and even low 20s in some spots.

Prime trick-or-treating time around 8 PM will bring readings of 16-20°C across much of Southern Ontario, with slightly cooler temperatures between 14-16°C around Algonquin Park and the Bruce Peninsula. Daytime highs earlier in the day may reach the low or even mid-20s, with some areas potentially setting new temperature records.

However, Halloween night won’t stay warm for long. A cold front will sweep through late in the evening, quickly dropping temperatures as it ushers in much colder air overnight. Those celebrating late into the witching hour should brace themselves for temperatures plunging into the single digits by early Friday morning.

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Northern Ontario’s Ghostly Chill

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While Southern Ontario basks in warmer weather, the tale turns a bit chillier in Northern Ontario. Southern portions of Northeastern Ontario, including Elliot Lake, Sudbury, and North Bay, will enjoy temperatures between 12-16°C during Halloween evening. But for Central Northeastern communities like Chapleau, Temiskaming Shores, and Kirkland Lake, temperatures will drop to single digits, adding an extra shiver to the festivities.

Northwestern and Far Northern Ontario will already be feeling the effects of the cold front by trick-or-treat time, with temperatures hovering near or just below the freezing mark. In these areas, those venturing out for Halloween night will definitely need to incorporate extra layers into their costumes.

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So, Where’s the Trick?

PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR Halloween EVENING - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

You may be wondering, with all this warm weather, where’s the trick in this Halloween forecast? The trick this year will be what’s coming down from the sky. Scattered rain showers are set to creep into Southern Ontario starting Thursday afternoon, with the heaviest rainfall likely in parts of Northeastern Ontario and along the western areas of Southern Ontario.

In fact, there could even be isolated thunderstorms around Georgian Bay. So if you’re out collecting candy, keep an eye on the skies, and take cover if you see lightning or hear thunder. Trick-or-treaters in Eastern Ontario, on the other hand, might just escape the rain until later in the evening.

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Fortunately, rainfall amounts across Southern Ontario are expected to stay light, with 5-15 mm in areas seeing the heaviest showers. Thunderstorm activity could increase these totals in very localized spots, but nothing overly dramatic.

The heaviest rain will be concentrated in Northeastern Ontario, stretching from Sault Ste. Marie through Sudbury and up to North Bay. Some of these areas are currently under a rainfall warning from Environment Canada, with up to 60 mm of rain possible from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

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A Halloween Surprise: Snow in Northern Ontario!

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And now, for the big Halloween scare! As rain moves across Ontario, colder air in the north will bring a chilling twist, transforming rain into snow by Thursday afternoon in some areas. The spooky snowfall is set to begin from Wawa up through Kapuskasing, with heavy snow expected to continue through the overnight hours into Friday morning.

For those areas in the “snow zone,” accumulation could be significant. A corridor stretching from Wawa to Kapuskasing may see up to 10-15 cm of snow by Friday morning, though actual amounts may vary based on temperatures near the freezing mark, which can affect how well snow sticks to the ground.

Surrounding areas, including Wawa, Kapuskasing, Timmins, and Cochrane, could see 5-10 cm of snow accumulation. However, warmer ground temperatures may mean that some snow melts on contact, reducing the totals.

Northeastern Ontario, north of a line from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury, may also pick up a dusting to a few centimetres of snow Thursday night into Friday, with up to 5 cm possible. Thunder Bay could even see a few flurries, though no accumulation is expected there.

So, Ontario, prepare for a Halloween that’s part treat, with warm weather for many, and part trick, with rain and snow making an appearance in others. However, you plan to celebrate, have a safe and spooky Halloween night!

Spooky Snow May Make an Appearance in Parts of Ontario to Kick Off Halloween Week

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The month of October has mostly brought calm and mild conditions to Ontario, with temperatures occasionally climbing above seasonal averages and minimal precipitation. But as we approach the final days leading up to Halloween, colder air is making a return, setting the stage for a possible wintry “trick” in parts of the region.

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This past week, temperatures in some areas reached the upper teens and even low 20s, but now a noticeable chill has settled in. Many spots across Southern and Northern Ontario are already experiencing single-digit highs as the warm air retreats.

As the weekend progresses, the cold will only deepen, with Sunday morning expected to bring temperatures near or just below freezing across the province. Afternoon highs will provide little relief, as most places in Central and Eastern Ontario will likely struggle to rise out of the single digits.

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A Weak Weather System and a Chance of Snow

PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY EVENING - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

On Sunday, a weak weather system will begin to make its way into Northeastern Ontario and eventually move toward Central Ontario by the afternoon. This will likely bring some light rain showers to areas like Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, North Bay, and Muskoka. As colder air continues to push southward after sunset, temperatures will drop quickly, setting the stage for a possible transition from rain to wet snow in the evening.

While surface temperatures are expected to stay just above freezing until after midnight, colder air moving in aloft may allow the rain to change to snow as the night progresses. Precipitation will gradually spread southeastward, reaching Bancroft, Kingston, and possibly the Ottawa area.

There is some uncertainty about whether Ottawa itself will see any snowflakes, as models suggest that a dry air pocket may limit snowfall, keeping the bulk of moisture just to the south.

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Potential for Accumulation and a Hard Freeze

ESTIMATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY MORNING - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Temperatures will continue to drop overnight, leading to what is referred to as a “hard freeze” in areas like Sudbury, North Bay, Algonquin Park, and the Ottawa Valley. During a hard freeze, temperatures remain several degrees below freezing for extended periods, which could kill sensitive plants.

The drop in temperature may also allow for some light snow accumulation, with a dusting of 2-3 cm possible by Monday morning in some areas. Though not a significant amount, it could be enough to create slippery conditions on roads, making for a potentially slow and hazardous Monday morning commute.

Light flurries may linger across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario into late Monday morning, gradually tapering off around noon. With temperatures hovering close to the freezing mark throughout the day, any snow that does manage to accumulate will likely melt slowly. Motorists should remain cautious, as wet or slushy conditions could persist longer than usual.

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Midweek Warm-Up on the Horizon

ESTIMATED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

For those hoping for a break from the cold, a warm-up is expected by midweek. By Tuesday, daytime highs in parts of Southwestern Ontario could rebound into the low to mid-20s, with the warmer air spreading to Central and Eastern Ontario by Wednesday.

However, the return of milder weather may be accompanied by some wet conditions. A fast-moving weather system is forecast to pass through Southern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing the potential for 15-30 mm of rainfall across Central and Eastern Ontario between late Tuesday and Wednesday.

While the exact track remains uncertain, some models suggest the rain may shift further north, potentially impacting the area differently than initially expected.

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What’s in Store for Halloween?

ESTIMATED TEMPERATURE FOR HALLOWEEN AT 8 PM - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

With Halloween fast approaching, many Ontarians are wondering what the weather will be like for Trick-or-Treating. As of now, forecasts indicate a chance of widespread rain across much of Southern Ontario during the afternoon, possibly lingering into the evening. Afternoon temperatures are expected to start in the mid to upper teens, but a cooling trend may bring them down to the low teens or even upper single digits by the time Trick-or-Treaters hit the streets.

There is still some disagreement among models regarding the exact timing of the rain. While it seems the heaviest precipitation may fall earlier in the day, there is a chance that skies could clear in time for the evening festivities, especially in Southwestern Ontario. Meanwhile, Eastern Ontario may be among the last regions to see any potential clearing.

Stay tuned as more details emerge in the days leading up to Halloween, and be prepared for whatever weather “tricks” or “treats” may come your way!

Trick-or-Treat: A Potential Spooky ‘Headless’ Comet Could Be Visible Across Canada Around Halloween

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It's been a spectacular year for skywatchers across Canada, with events like solar eclipses, supermoons, and vibrant northern lights lighting up the night. Now, it looks like we might be in for another treat—a "headless" comet could make an appearance just in time for Halloween.

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October seems to be the month of comets, with Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS gracing the early evening skies recently. Many stargazers caught glimpses of the comet, which was visible in the western sky just after sunset. Although it has since faded from naked-eye visibility, you can still catch it with a telescope, and it will remain somewhat visible into early November.

But the cosmic show isn’t over yet. A second comet, called Comet ATLAS (C/2024 S1), may arrive just in time for Halloween, and it comes with a spooky twist—it could appear "headless." The comet’s name might sound familiar because it was discovered by the same ATLAS asteroid tracking system, known for spotting objects that could potentially impact Earth.

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The main difference between this upcoming comet and the earlier one lies in its path. While the first comet passed safely between Earth and the Sun, around 40 million miles from the Sun, this new comet will come much closer, potentially within 700,000 miles of the Sun's surface. Because of this close approach, scientists predict that the comet’s head—its bright core—might disintegrate due to the Sun's intense heat, leaving just a faint, trailing tail visible from Earth.

To understand what makes a comet appear "headless," it's important to know a bit about its structure. Comets are made up of a nucleus, or core, composed of rock, dust, and frozen gases. When they approach the Sun, the heat causes the frozen gases to vaporize, forming a glowing coma around the nucleus and a tail that extends away from the Sun. If the nucleus disintegrates, the glowing head might vanish, leaving behind only a ghostly tail, hence the term "headless comet."

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ESTIMATED BRIGHTNESS OF COMET - SOURCE: sKYWALK.SPACE

The exact visibility of this comet remains uncertain. It will come closest to Earth on October 24th as it travels toward the Sun, reaching its closest point to the Sun, known as perihelion, on October 28th. There’s even a chance it could be bright enough to see during the day, potentially appearing as bright as Venus from 7:12 AM to 8:06 AM (ET) in the east-southeastern sky.

However, those in the Northern Hemisphere may struggle to spot it due to its position low in the sky near the Sun, making it difficult to see without obstruction from sunlight or clouds.

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NASA offers some tips for spotting the comet during this close approach. To view it safely, you should block the Sun with an object such as a building or tree, then scan the lower left of the Sun's position in the sky. Be cautious and never use binoculars or telescopes, as accidentally focusing on the Sun can cause serious eye damage.

If the comet survives its close encounter with the Sun, it could become visible in the night sky around Halloween. This would provide skywatchers with a unique opportunity to see a potentially "headless" comet, with a long, wispy tail but no visible nucleus. The darkness of the moonless night sky could offer ideal conditions for observing this unusual celestial visitor, making it a fitting cosmic event for the spooky season.

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There is always the possibility that the comet disintegrates completely, leaving nothing visible to the naked eye. But if it endures, it will gradually fade after November 1st, requiring binoculars or a telescope for further observation. Unlike earlier this month, when a supermoon washed out the sky, the absence of a full moon could make for an even more impressive show, assuming the comet survives.

Stay tuned for updates as we keep an eye on this intriguing comet.

Why the Northern Lights Are Appearing More Frequently: NASA and NOAA Confirm Solar Maximum

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Visible light images from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory highlight the appearance of the Sun at solar minimum (left, Dec. 2019) versus solar maximum (right, August 2024). During solar minimum, the Sun is often spotless. Sunspots are associated with solar activity, and are used to track solar cycle progress. Credit: NASA/SDO

During a recent teleconference, experts from NASA, NOAA, and the International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel confirmed that the Sun has entered its solar maximum, a period of heightened solar activity expected to last through the next year.

The solar cycle reaches this peak roughly every 11 years, during which the Sun shifts from a relatively calm state to a much more active phase characterized by increased magnetic activity and a higher number of sunspots. These sunspots, which are cooler areas on the Sun’s surface caused by intense magnetic fields, can trigger powerful solar eruptions that significantly impact space weather.

This surge in solar activity doesn’t just make for an interesting spectacle; it can also have practical consequences on Earth. Solar flares and eruptions during this time can interfere with communications, disrupt GPS signals, and even affect power grids. They can also pose potential hazards to satellites and astronauts in orbit.

But for skywatchers, there is an upside: the solar maximum period also brings more frequent and spectacular aurora displays. The increased solar storms energize the Earth’s magnetosphere, producing stunning Northern Lights that light up the night sky.

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The Solar Cycle 25 forecast, produced by the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is co-chaired by NASA and NOAA. Sunspot number is an indicator of solar cycle strength - the higher the sunspot number, the stronger the cycle. Credit: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center

This past May, a powerful series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) resulted in one of the most intense geomagnetic storms seen in decades, setting the stage for breathtaking aurora displays visible across Canada. For many, it was a rare opportunity to experience the vivid greens, reds, and purples dancing across the sky.

If you didn’t catch those May displays or other recent aurora events, there’s no need to worry. With the Sun currently in its solar maximum, NASA and NOAA anticipate ongoing solar and geomagnetic storms in the coming months, which means there will be many more chances to witness the auroras.

Although the Sun is already in an active phase, pinpointing the exact peak of this cycle will take time as scientists closely monitor the number and intensity of sunspots and solar eruptions.

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Exciting research efforts are also underway to better understand the Sun's behavior during this dynamic period. NASA is preparing for a major milestone in solar exploration, with the Parker Solar Probe set to make its closest approach to the Sun in December 2024. This mission, along with other initiatives, aims to deepen our knowledge of space weather and its effects on our planet.

Here at Instant Weather, we’re committed to keeping you informed about significant solar activity and providing timely alerts for aurora viewing opportunities across Canada. As the Sun continues to show off during this solar maximum, be sure to stay tuned for updates and get ready for more spectacular light shows in the sky.